Preface
I wrote this book because I got tired of treating the pieces of a modern reasoning-model pipeline as separate black boxes. I could serve a model. I could point an eval harness at an endpoint and read a number off the screen. I could, on a good day, run a fine-tune. What I could not do was hold the whole loop in my head at once and say, honestly, why each number came out the way it did. The eval score was a number the harness handed me. The reward was a function I copied from somebody's repo. The gradient step was whatever the trainer did between two log lines. I wanted to close the loop and see the seams.
So this is a book about one loop, run end to end, on one GPU, with the math left in.
The loop is the spine
Everything here hangs off a single cycle: serve a model, evaluate it on a task, turn each response into a score, use those scores to train, then evaluate again and see whether the number moved. That is the whole argument of the book compressed into five words, and I come back to it constantly.
flowchart LR
A[Serve<br/>open-weight model] --> B[Evaluate<br/>run the task]
B --> C[Score<br/>reward per response]
C --> D[Train<br/>update the weights]
D --> E[Re-evaluate<br/>did the number move?]
E -->|next iteration| A
That is Figure 0.0, and it is the mental model I want you to carry into every chapter. When we are deep in the weeds of a KL penalty or a vLLM flag or a bootstrap confidence interval, the question is always the same: which arrow of this diagram am I standing on right now, and what does this piece feed into next? "Evals as rewards," the title, is really a claim about the middle of this diagram: that the thing you measure with (the eval) and the thing you train against (the reward) are two readings of the same underlying signal, and that if you understand one you are most of the way to understanding the other. A well-posed eval is a reward function you have not plugged into an optimizer yet. A reward function is an eval you have decided to differentiate through. Keeping those two ideas in the same frame is the point.
The reason the loop matters more than any single stage is that reasoning models are trained by closing it. You do not get a model that reasons better by staring at a static benchmark. You get it by scoring responses, pushing the weights toward the responses that scored well, and checking that the benchmark actually moved and did not just wobble inside its own noise. If you only ever run the top arc (serve and evaluate) you are doing measurement. If you only ever run the bottom arc (score and train) you are optimizing something you cannot see. The whole point is to run the circle.
Why one 16GB GPU
The obvious way to write a book like this is to assume a cluster, or at least a rented 80GB card, and wave at the parts that do not fit. I deliberately did the opposite. Every lab in this book runs on a single NVIDIA RTX 5080 with 16GB of VRAM, in the machine I describe in the hardware baseline chapter, and that constraint is not an apology. It is a design input.
Sixteen gigabytes is enough to be real and small enough to hurt, which is exactly the regime where you are forced to understand what is actually consuming memory. When the whole model plus its KV cache plus optimizer state plus activations has to fit inside a budget you can count on your fingers, you cannot treat memory as infinite and you cannot hand-wave the arithmetic. You end up knowing, to within a few hundred megabytes, where every gigabyte went, because you had to. That knowledge is transferable in a way that "it fit on the A100" never is. Throughout the book I keep a running vram-budget admonition precisely so the memory accounting stays in the foreground rather than being the thing that mysteriously blows up at 2am.
The constraint also keeps the book honest about tradeoffs. Quantization, LoRA and its low-rank cousins, gradient checkpointing, paged KV caches, small-batch RL: these stop being optional cleverness and become the load-bearing structure of every lab. You learn them because you have no choice, which is the best reason to learn anything.
Three readers, one book
I am writing for three audiences at once, and I owe each of them a different thing.
The first reader is future me, six months from now, trying to re-run a lab on a machine whose driver has moved on. That reader needs reproducibility above charm: exact commands, pinned versions, artifacts written to disk, and numbers stamped with the date and driver they were measured under. Wherever this book feels almost pedantically specific about how something was run, that is me writing to future me, who will not remember and will not forgive vagueness.
The second reader is the Substack reader, arriving one chapter at a time. The book is built so that chapters extract cleanly into posts, which is why each one opens with intuition before it earns the right to show you an equation, and why I seed shareable framings in substack-seed admonitions as I go. If you are that reader, you should be able to drop into a chapter, get the idea, and leave with something you could explain to a colleague over coffee.
The third reader is a thesis committee, and this one sets the floor for rigor. Every derivation has to survive being read by someone whose job is to find the step I skipped. Every statistic (every confidence interval, every claim that a training run "improved" something) has to be defensible, not vibes. When I compute an uncertainty I show the estimator; when I claim a difference is real I say how I know it is not noise. The derivation admonitions are where I pay that debt in full, working things from definitions rather than asserting them.
Serving three readers at once is a discipline, not a compromise. Intuition first keeps the Substack reader; math in full keeps the committee; exact commands and dated numbers keep future me. A chapter is done when all three are satisfied.
The main line and the Thesis Thread
The book runs on two tracks. The main line is generic: it works with open-weight reasoning models and standard tasks, and nothing in it depends on my particular research problem. You can follow the main line, learn the loop, and apply it to whatever you care about.
Braided through the main line is a recurring worked example I call the Thesis Thread, flagged wherever it appears with a thesis-thread admonition. The thread follows one concrete problem in verifiable reasoning (an SDA-flavored task where a response can be checked, not just liked) from first eval to trained model. It exists to show the whole loop applied to a single problem with real stakes, so the generic machinery has somewhere to land. If you only want the general skills, you can skip the thread and lose nothing structural. If you want to see how the pieces actually compose on a problem someone cared enough to write a thesis about, follow it. Keeping the two tracks visibly separate is deliberate: it lets the general book stay general while still getting the payoff of a sustained example.
What this book is not
To keep the contract clean, here is what I am leaving out on purpose.
This is an open-source-stack book. Every tool in it is something you can read the source of, run locally, and pin to a version. I lean on hosted APIs only as a point of comparison, never as a dependency, because a book about closing the loop on your own machine cannot have its core steps happen on someone else's. If a lab needs a component, that component is open weights or open source, full stop.
It is also not a business book. There is nothing here about pricing a product, sizing a market, or deciding whether any of this is worth doing commercially. Those are real questions and other people write about them well. My scope is the technical loop and the understanding required to run it, on the assumption that you already decided you want to. Where a real deployment would raise a cost or product question, I will name it and move on rather than pretend to answer it.
That is the deal. One loop, one GPU, all the math, three readers, two tracks, open source only. The next chapter teaches you how the book is put together so the conventions never get in your way. After that we start unboxing the machine.
How to read this book
Before you hit chapter one, spend a few minutes here. This book has a fixed rhythm, a small vocabulary of labeled boxes, a shorthand for the references I lean on, and a couple of non-negotiable rules about how the code runs. None of it is complicated, but knowing it up front means the conventions get out of your way instead of tripping you up later. Think of this chapter as the legend on a map.
The Theory, Tooling, Lab rhythm
Most chapters move through three phases in the same order, and the order is the pedagogy.
Theory comes first. I try to give you the intuition for what we are about to do and why it should work before I write a single equation, because an equation you were handed cold is just notation, whereas an equation you were expecting is an insight. This is also the part that extracts most cleanly into a blog post, so it is written to stand more or less on its own.
Tooling comes second. Here the intuition earns its math, and the math earns its implementation. This is where I derive the thing properly (the loss, the estimator, the update rule) and then connect each symbol to the actual library, flag, or function that computes it. The goal of this phase is that you never have to take the tooling on faith: you can point at a line of output and say which term of which equation produced it.
Lab comes last, and every lab ends with something written to disk. You run the commands, you get an artifact (a metrics JSON, a set of scored responses, a checkpoint, a plot), and that artifact is the proof the loop closed. The reason theory precedes tooling precedes lab is simple: I want you to understand the thing, then see how it is built, then build it yourself, in that order, so that when the lab misbehaves you already have the model in your head to debug it. Reversing the order (code first, understanding later) is how you end up with a working script you cannot reason about, which is exactly the situation this whole book exists to get you out of.
Not every chapter uses all three phases with equal weight. A reference chapter may be almost all tooling; the preface and this chapter are all theory. But when a chapter is teaching a piece of the loop, expect the three-beat structure.
The admonition vocabulary
Throughout the book I use a small set of labeled callout boxes (mdBook calls them admonitions). Each type means one specific thing, so you can decide at a glance whether a box is essential to your path or safely skippable. Here is the whole vocabulary.
| Admonition | What it is for |
|---|---|
derivation | A result worked from definitions, step by step, rigorous enough for the thesis committee. Skip if you trust the result; read if you need to defend it. |
under-the-hood | What the library or hardware is actually doing beneath the API, when the abstraction hides something worth seeing. |
vram-budget | Explicit memory accounting: where the gigabytes went, and whether it fits in 16GB. The running constraint of the book. |
thesis-thread | The recurring SDA-flavored verifiable-reasoning worked example. Follow it for a sustained single problem; skip it and the main line still stands. |
substack-seed | A framing or hook written to travel: the shareable core of an idea, sized for a post. |
gotcha | A specific trap I hit or expect you to hit, and how to get past it. Read these; they are cheap insurance. |
read-along | A pointer into one of the reference books below, so you can go deeper on a topic from someone who wrote a whole book on it. |
If you read nothing but the prose and the gotcha boxes you will still be able to run every lab. If you read the derivation boxes too you will be able to defend every result. The rest are there to enrich, extend, or share.
Reference short keys
I lean on seven books repeatedly, and rather than spell out full citations every time, I use short keys in the text and in read-along boxes. Here is the key.
| Key | Reference |
|---|---|
| [S&B] | Sutton and Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction, 2nd edition |
| [RLHF] | Lambert, RLHF Book |
| [BRM] | Raschka, Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch) |
| [BLLM] | Raschka, Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) |
| [MADL] | Chaudhury, Math and Architectures of Deep Learning |
| [GAIA] | Hurbans, Grokking Artificial Intelligence Algorithms |
| [CAI] | Ness, Causal AI |
When I write "see [S&B] on the policy gradient theorem" or drop a read-along box pointing at [BRM], those keys are what I mean. The intent is not to make you buy seven books. It is to be honest about where an idea came from and to give you a well-worn path to more depth than a single chapter can hold. Where two references cover the same ground differently (and [S&B] versus [RLHF] on reward often will), I will say which one I am following and why.
uv everywhere
Every piece of Python in this book runs under uv. There are no bare pip install lines and no hand-rolled python -m venv incantations anywhere in the labs, and this is a rule, not a preference.
The reason is reproducibility, which is the promise I made to future me in the preface. uv gives every lab a pinned, lockfile-backed environment that resolves the same way tomorrow as it did today, and it does it fast enough that spinning up a fresh environment per lab is painless rather than a chore. So when a lab needs dependencies you will see uv managing them, when it runs a script you will see uv run, and when it pins versions you will see them in a lockfile that is itself an artifact. If you are used to pip and venv, everything you know transfers; uv is just the tool that makes the pinning automatic instead of aspirational. If you have never used it, the chapter-zero setup walks you through installing it once, and after that it is invisible.
Every lab ends in an artifact
I said it under the rhythm and I will say it again on its own because it is the load-bearing rule of the whole book: a lab is not done when the script exits zero. A lab is done when it has written a durable artifact to disk. A metrics file, a table of scored responses, a checkpoint directory, a saved figure. Something you can come back to, diff against a later run, and point at in an argument.
This is what makes the serve, evaluate, score, train, re-evaluate loop auditable rather than anecdotal. "The model got better" is a claim. Two dated metrics JSONs, one before training and one after, with the estimator and its uncertainty recorded in each, are evidence. The artifacts are also what let future me re-run a lab and check whether the new hardware gives the old answer. So expect every lab to tell you exactly what it wrote and where, and expect me to treat that file, not the terminal output, as the real result.
Running the book on the same hardware
This book is written to be run, not just read, and it is written against one specific machine, described in full in the next chapter. If you have that machine or something close to it, you can execute every lab as written and compare your numbers to mine directly. If your hardware differs, the labs still run; what changes is the measured numbers, and because every measured number in this book is stamped with the date and driver it came from, you will always be able to tell which figures are hardware-relative and recompute them on your own box.
Practically, that means the ideal way to read this book is with the machine on and a terminal open. Read the theory, follow the tooling, then actually run the lab and watch your artifact land on disk next to mine. The book will make sense from the armchair, but it was built for the workbench. The next chapter pins down exactly what that workbench is.
The hardware baseline
Every measured number in this book is relative to one machine. If I tell you a serving configuration hits some throughput, or a training step takes some seconds, or a KV cache eats some fraction of VRAM, that number only means something once you know exactly what it ran on. So before any measurement appears, here is the machine it was measured on, pinned down to the parts that matter.
The baseline machine is an MSI Aegis R2, model A2NVV9-2218US, a prebuilt desktop I chose specifically because it is an ordinary, buyable configuration rather than a bespoke workstation. The whole premise of the book is that the loop runs on hardware a normal person can own, so the baseline had to be hardware a normal person can buy.
The full specification
| Component | Part |
|---|---|
| Machine | MSI Aegis R2 (A2NVV9-2218US) |
| CPU | Intel Core Ultra 9 285 (Arrow Lake) |
| GPU | NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5080, 16GB GDDR7 (Blackwell), roughly 960 GB/s memory bandwidth |
| System RAM | 32GB DDR5 |
| Working storage | 1TB NVMe SSD |
| Archive storage | 5TB NAS (network-attached) |
| OS | Ubuntu 24.04 LTS |
| GPU driver | NVIDIA 570-open (open-kernel-module branch) |
Whenever I refer to "the baseline machine" anywhere in the book, this is the row-by-row thing I mean.
Why each part matters
The GPU is the whole story, and two of its numbers set the terms for everything else. It is a Blackwell-generation card, which matters because the software stack (the CUDA version, the driver branch, the kernels that vLLM and the training libraries dispatch to) has to actually support Blackwell, and at the time I built this that support was new enough to be worth stating explicitly rather than assuming. And it has 16GB of VRAM, which is the constraint the entire book is organized around. Every vram-budget admonition is accounting against this 16GB ceiling. The roughly 960 GB/s of memory bandwidth is the number that quietly governs inference speed for the memory-bound regime we usually live in: for autoregressive decoding, throughput is often set more by how fast you can stream weights and KV cache through memory than by raw compute, so the bandwidth figure is one I will keep returning to when a measurement looks surprising.
The CPU is an Intel Core Ultra 9 285, an Arrow Lake part. It is not doing the heavy lifting, but it is not idle either. Data loading, tokenization, the orchestration around a serving engine, and the CPU-side of any offloading strategy all land here, and when a lab is unexpectedly slow it is worth knowing whether the GPU is waiting on the CPU. Arrow Lake also brings its own quirks (its power and scheduling behavior differs from older Intel parts), which is exactly the kind of thing that is invisible until it explains a weird measurement.
System RAM is 32GB of DDR5. That is comfortable but not lavish, and it becomes relevant the moment a technique spills off the GPU: CPU offload of optimizer state or KV cache, memory-mapped weight loading, or just holding a dataset in memory. 32GB means offloading is possible but bounded, and I will flag the cases where it is the thing that fits or does not.
Storage is deliberately split into two tiers, and the split is a design choice, not an accident of what was in the box.
Working storage versus archive
The 1TB NVMe SSD is working storage. It holds the things a running lab touches constantly: the model weights currently being served or trained, the active dataset, checkpoints being written mid-run, the scratch space for a training job. NVMe is here because weight loading and checkpoint I/O are fast enough to not be the bottleneck, which matters when a lab loads a multi-gigabyte model or writes a checkpoint every few hundred steps.
The 5TB NAS is the archive tier. It holds the things I want to keep but am not actively hammering: past checkpoints, completed run artifacts, datasets I am not currently using, the accumulated sediment of every lab I have ever run. It is network-attached and therefore slower than the NVMe, which is fine, because nothing in the hot path should be reaching across the network for it. The discipline is to keep the working set on NVMe and everything else on the NAS, so the fast disk stays fast and the archive grows without pressure.
That is the high-level shape. The actual mechanics (how the mount is set up, how artifacts get promoted from working to archive, how I keep the two from drifting) are a chapter 0.5 problem, and I will lay out the whole storage workflow there. For now the thing to hold onto is just the two-tier split: NVMe for what is hot, NAS for what is kept.
Dating and driver-stamping every number
Here is the discipline that makes this baseline useful rather than decorative. Every genuinely measured number in this book is recorded with the date it was measured and the driver it was measured under. Not "about 40 tokens per second" but "40 tokens per second, measured on the baseline machine on such-and-such date under driver 570-open." Where a number in the text is a real measurement, you will see it written as (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver) until it is filled in from an actual run, precisely so that an unfilled measurement is impossible to mistake for a real one.
The reason is that hardware and drivers move, and a number without a stamp is a number you cannot trust later. A driver update can change throughput. A new CUDA release can change what fits in memory. A kernel improvement can make last month's careful workaround unnecessary. If every measurement carries its date and driver, then when I upgrade the driver next year I can re-run the labs and diff the new numbers against the old ones and actually see what the upgrade changed. If the numbers were undated, that diff would be meaningless, because I would not know whether a difference was the upgrade or just drift I never pinned down.
This is the same promise I made to future me in the preface, made concrete. A dated, driver-stamped measurement is reproducible in the only sense that matters: I can tell you the conditions precisely enough that you, or a later me, can reproduce them and check. An undated number is a rumor. So the rule for the whole book is that measured quantities are never bare. They come stamped, or they come marked as not yet measured, and there is no third category.
With the machine pinned and the stamping discipline stated, every measurement from here on has a fixed frame of reference. The next chapter starts the actual work: unboxing this machine and getting it ready to serve its first model.
Why this machine, this stack
Goal. Orient the reader: what the loop is, and why one number, 16 GB of VRAM, drives every downstream choice in this book.
Covers. The loop diagram (Figure 0.1); the 16 GB constraint as the central design input; working (NVMe) versus archive (NAS) storage tiers; the open-data boundary and why any business stack stays separate.
Theory
The loop is the thesis
Everything in this book is one loop. I serve an open-weight reasoning model, evaluate it on tasks with checkable answers, score those answers into a scalar reward, use that reward to train the model, and then re-evaluate to see whether the number moved. That is the whole machine. The rest of the book is me refusing to treat any box in that loop as opaque.
flowchart LR
S["Serve<br/>(vLLM, OpenAI-compatible)"] --> E["Evaluate<br/>(Inspect tasks)"]
E --> C["Score<br/>(scorers → scalar reward)"]
C --> T["Train<br/>(Unsloth GRPO / LoRA)"]
T --> R["Re-evaluate<br/>(same tasks, held-out split)"]
R -.->|"reasoning delta"| S
R --> L["Log<br/>(MLflow: metrics, artifacts, SHAs)"]
L -.-> S
Figure 0.1 - the serve → evaluate → score → train → re-evaluate loop. The dotted return edge is the only thing I actually care about: did the model get better at reasoning, measured the same way twice?
The reason I draw it as a cycle and not a pipeline is that the interesting quantity lives on the return edge. A pipeline ends with a deliverable. This loop ends with a comparison: the same evaluation, run before and after training, on data the model never trained on. I call that difference the reasoning delta, and Part 7 is entirely about measuring it honestly. If I cannot trust the evaluation, the delta is noise dressed up as progress, so a surprising amount of this book is spent making the "evaluate" and "score" boxes boring and defensible before I ever let the "train" box touch a weight.
One GPU is a feature, not an apology
The subtitle says "on one GPU," and I mean it as a design constraint I chose, not a limitation I am making excuses for. The baseline machine is an MSI Aegis R2 (A2NVV9-2218US): an Intel Core Ultra 9 285, an NVIDIA RTX 5080 with 16 GB of VRAM (Blackwell, roughly 960 GB/s of memory bandwidth per NVIDIA's RTX 5080 product specification), 32 GB of DDR5, a 1 TB NVMe system drive, and a 5 TB NAS for archive. Ubuntu 24.04 LTS, NVIDIA 570-open driver. Every measured number in this book is relative to exactly that machine, which is why I date and driver-stamp all of them.
The single most consequential number in that list is 16 GB. Not the core count, not the 960 GB/s, not the 32 GB of system RAM. Sixteen gigabytes of VRAM is the constraint that, once you internalize it, predicts almost every architectural decision I make later. So it is worth sitting with the number before we get anywhere near a command line.
A budget only means something if you know what it has to cover. On one 16 GB card, VRAM is spent on, roughly in order of size: model weights, the KV cache for whatever context length I serve, activations during a forward pass, and (only when training) optimizer state and gradients. A 7B-parameter model in bf16 is about GB of weights alone, which already overflows the card before a single token of KV cache exists. That single arithmetic fact is why quantization (Part 2) and parameter-efficient training (Part 6) are not optional flourishes in this book; they are the load-bearing walls.
Let me make the weights arithmetic explicit, because it is the seed of everything. A parameter count stored at bytes per parameter needs
At bf16, . At 4-bit quantization, , plus a small overhead for scales and zero-points. So the same 7B model is about 14 GB at bf16 and roughly 4 GB at 4-bit. On a 16 GB card, the difference between those two numbers is the difference between "will not load" and "loads with 12 GB left over for cache and activations." I will derive the KV-cache and activation terms carefully in Part 1 and Part 2; here I only want the reader to feel the shape of the constraint. VRAM is a fixed pie. Every design choice is really a question of which slice something is allowed to take.
Consider the loop again. Serving needs weights plus KV cache. Training needs weights plus gradients plus optimizer state plus activations. If I tried to hold a serving engine and a full-fine-tune trainer resident on the same 16 GB at the same time, I would lose before I started: full-parameter SGD-style training of a model needs, very roughly, weights for the parameters, an equal-sized buffer for gradients, and (for Adam) two more buffers for the first and second moment estimates. That is about the weight memory just for the trainable state, i.e. GB for a 7B model at bf16, before activations. The 16 GB card makes that a non-starter, which is exactly why the loop separates serving from training in time and in software (Chapter 0.4), and why training uses LoRA/QLoRA so that only a tiny fraction of parameters carry optimizer state (Part 6). The constraint does not just shrink the model; it reshapes the whole workflow into "do one heavy thing at a time, and make the trainable surface small."
Two storage tiers, because weights are heavy and cheap to lose
The second design input is mundane and I ignored it at my peril the first time: model weights and datasets are large, and the two things I want from them, fast access and durable retention, pull in opposite directions. Fast access wants the local NVMe. Durable retention wants somewhere I will not accidentally rm -rf during a cache cleanup. So I split storage into two tiers from day one.
The working tier is the 1 TB NVMe. It holds the Hugging Face cache, the currently active model weights, in-flight checkpoints, and scratch. It is fast (an NVMe Gen4/Gen5 SSD delivers multiple GB/s of sequential read; the exact figure is a machine-log entry, measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver) and it is treated as disposable. Anything on the working tier should be reconstructible from a revision hash and a lockfile. If the NVMe died tomorrow, I should lose time, not results.
The archive tier is the 5 TB NAS. It holds things I want to keep: final checkpoints I have decided are worth keeping, acceptance reports, MLflow artifact stores I have exported, and datasets I have curated. The NAS is slower over the network than local NVMe, and that is fine, because I touch it deliberately and rarely. Chapter 0.5 makes this split concrete with HF_HOME, hf_transfer, and a written retention policy; here the point is only that "where does this file live" is a decision I make on purpose, tier by tier, and not something I let a tool decide for me by defaulting into ~/.cache.
The open-data boundary
There is one more line I draw before any code, and it is as much about discipline as architecture. Everything in this book runs on open weights and open data. Open-weight models (Qwen, Llama, and friends, pinned to specific revisions), open evaluation datasets, open benchmarks. Nothing in the loop depends on a private dataset, a proprietary API, or anything I could not hand to a thesis committee and say "here, reproduce it."
That boundary exists for two reasons. The obvious one is reproducibility: a thesis result that leans on data nobody else can see is not a result, it is an anecdote. The less obvious one is contamination of purpose. I also do consulting and product work, and that work has its own private data, its own models, its own infrastructure. If I let that stack bleed into this one, two bad things happen. First, I can no longer publish cleanly, because I cannot separate the open result from the private input. Second, I create a compliance and confidentiality hazard where private client data could end up in a public checkpoint or a Substack post. So the business stack stays on separate machines, separate accounts, separate storage, with no shared caches and no shared credentials. This book never touches it, and I will not gesture at it again except to say: if you are reading this to build your own loop, keep your paid work and your published work in different houses.
Why reasoning models, and why open weights
One more design input deserves a paragraph, because it shapes what the loop is even for. The subject of this book is reasoning models: models trained or coaxed to produce an explicit chain of intermediate steps before committing to an answer. That choice is not incidental to the 16 GB constraint, it is synergistic with it. Reasoning happens at inference time, in tokens, which means a modestly sized model that thinks for longer can close a surprising amount of the gap to a much larger model that answers immediately. On a card that cannot hold a 70B model, "spend more tokens, not more parameters" is exactly the trade the hardware wants me to make, and it is the trade the loop is built to measure and then reinforce.
Open weights are the other half. I need models whose weights I can download, quantize, serve, and fine-tune locally, with no API gatekeeper between me and the tensors. Only open-weight families (Qwen, Llama, and their kin) let me do the full serve-and-train loop on my own GPU, and only open weights let me pin a revision hash and hand a reviewer something they can reproduce byte for byte (Chapter 0.5). A closed model behind an API can be evaluated but never trained here, and never fully inspected, which would make half the loop a black box and violate the book's founding promise. So the loop runs on open reasoning models specifically because that is the intersection where I can both measure a model honestly and change it.
For the committee, this framing pins the intervention variable. The thesis does not claim to build a better base model; it claims that a specific, measurable training signal (a scorer used as a reward) moves a specific, pre-registered reasoning metric on a fixed open model, on fixed hardware. Choosing open reasoning models is what makes that claim both testable (I can train) and reproducible (I can pin), which are the two properties a committee will press on hardest.
Tooling
This chapter has no command surface of its own, but it is worth naming the tools each box in Figure 0.1 will become, so the later chapters land in a frame that already exists in the reader's head.
The serve box is vLLM, run as an OpenAI-compatible server on localhost. I chose it because it gives me paged KV-cache memory management and continuous batching, which are exactly the two things that let a 16 GB card serve a real model at usable throughput. Part 2 opens the box.
The evaluate box is Inspect (the UK AI Safety Institute's evaluation framework). Evaluations are defined as tasks; the model under test is just an endpoint. Because the model is an endpoint, the same eval runs against the served base model and the trained model with no change, which is what makes the before/after comparison fair. Part 3 opens this box.
The score box is Inspect scorers plus, later, my own reward functions. A scorer turns a model's answer into a number: exact-match, a parsed numeric answer, a judged rubric. In Part 7 those same scorers become the reward signal for training, which is the pun in the book's title: evals as rewards. The eval and the reward are the same function, used twice.
The train box is Unsloth running GRPO (and LoRA/QLoRA for the parameter-efficient plumbing). Unsloth is what makes reinforcement-style training of a reasoning model fit on 16 GB at all. Parts 5, 6, and 7 open this box, math first.
The log box is MLflow on localhost, and it is the least glamorous and most important tool in the stack. Every run in this book logs its git SHA, its uv lockfile hash, the driver version, the VRAM peak, and its seeds, so that a number in a figure can always be traced back to the exact state of the world that produced it. Chapter 0.6 stands it up.
A note on why the boxes are tools and not one monolithic script. It would be possible to write a single Python program that loads a model, evaluates it, computes rewards, trains, and re-evaluates, all in one process. I deliberately do not, and the reason connects back to the 16 GB constraint and to the endpoint seam. A monolith would have to hold serving state and training state in the same process and the same environment, which the memory budget forbids and the dependency split (Chapter 0.4) makes painful. More importantly, a monolith hides its own seams: when a number moves, I want to know which box moved it, and a pipeline of separable tools with a logged interface between each stage lets me answer that. So each box is its own tool with its own environment, talking to the next through a defined interface (an HTTP endpoint, a scored dataset, a checkpoint on disk), and the whole thing is coordinated by small scripts rather than fused into one process. The loop is modular because modularity is what lets me attribute a change to a cause.
Wrapping all of it is uv for Python environments and Docker for the few services (like MLflow) that are cleaner as containers. The doctrine that serve and train live in two separate uv projects (Chapter 0.4) is a direct consequence of the 16 GB constraint: two environments means I can lock two mutually incompatible dependency trees (vLLM's and Unsloth's) without either poisoning the other, and it means I never accidentally hold both heavyweights resident at once.
It would be simpler, on the face of it, to load the model once in Python and call it directly for both evaluation and training. I deliberately do not. Serving behind an HTTP endpoint forces a clean seam: the evaluator cannot reach into the model's internals, so an eval that passes against the endpoint is an eval that would pass against any conforming endpoint, including a hosted one or a future different engine. That seam is what lets me swap vLLM's internals in Part 2 without rewriting a single eval, and it is what keeps the "evaluate" box honest. The cost is a little latency and a serialization boundary. On a single-GPU, single-user machine that cost is negligible, and the discipline it buys is worth far more than the microseconds it spends.
Lab
There is no runnable lab in this chapter. The deliverable is the annotated stack diagram below, which I keep as the reference picture for the whole book. Everything I build later is an implementation of one of these layers, and when I get lost in a later chapter, this is the diagram I come back to.
flowchart TB
subgraph HW["Hardware - MSI Aegis R2 (A2NVV9-2218US)"]
GPU["RTX 5080 · 16 GB VRAM · Blackwell · ~960 GB/s"]
CPU["Core Ultra 9 285 · 32 GB DDR5"]
NVME["1 TB NVMe - working tier"]
NAS["5 TB NAS - archive tier"]
end
subgraph OS["OS & drivers - Ubuntu 24.04 LTS"]
KERN["HWE kernel"]
DRV["NVIDIA 570-open"]
CT["Docker + nvidia-container-toolkit"]
end
subgraph ENV["Environments - uv, two projects"]
SERVEENV["serve/ - vLLM (locked)"]
TRAINENV["train/ - Unsloth (locked)"]
end
subgraph LOOP["The loop"]
SERVE["Serve - vLLM OpenAI endpoint"]
EVAL["Evaluate - Inspect tasks"]
SCORE["Score - scorers → reward"]
TRAIN["Train - GRPO / LoRA on 16 GB"]
REEVAL["Re-evaluate - reasoning delta"]
end
subgraph SPINE["Tracking spine"]
MLF["MLflow - runs, metrics, artifacts"]
end
HW --> OS --> ENV
SERVEENV --> SERVE
TRAINENV --> TRAIN
SERVE --> EVAL --> SCORE --> TRAIN --> REEVAL
REEVAL -.->|reasoning delta| SERVE
LOOP --> SPINE
NVME -. "cache, checkpoints, scratch" .- ENV
NAS -. "final checkpoints, reports" .- SPINE
classDef boundary fill:#f6f6f6,stroke:#999,stroke-dasharray:4 3;
Figure 0.2 - the annotated stack. Read it top to bottom: hardware constrains the OS and drivers, which host two locked uv environments, which run the loop, which logs into MLflow. The 16 GB card at the top is the reason every layer below it looks the way it does.
What you should see. Not on a screen (there is nothing to run yet), but in your head: a single card at the top with a hard 16 GB ceiling, and a chain of decisions falling out of it. Weights must be quantized or the model will not load. Serving and training must be separated in time, because they cannot both hold their heavyweight state at once. Storage must be tiered, because weights are big and results are precious. And a boundary must be drawn around open data, because a result you cannot reproduce is not a result. If those four consequences feel inevitable rather than arbitrary by the end of this diagram, the chapter did its job, and the rest of the book is just me making each of them concrete, one command at a time.
For the committee: this chapter fixes the unit of analysis. Every quantitative claim later is of the form "on the baseline machine, under driver X, at seed Y, metric M moved by ." The loop in Figure 0.1 is the experimental apparatus; the reasoning delta on its return edge is the dependent variable. Naming the apparatus this early is what lets Part 9 assemble logs into figures without special pleading.
The clarifying move for a general-audience post is to reframe "I only have one GPU" from a confession into a specification. A 16 GB ceiling is not a smaller version of a datacenter; it is a different design problem with its own elegant answers, the way a bicycle is not a failed car. Show the one line of arithmetic - a 7B model is 14 GB at bf16, 4 GB at 4-bit - and let the reader watch every subsequent decision (quantize, separate serve from train, shrink the trainable surface) fall out of that single number like dominoes. The hook: constraints do not limit good engineering, they generate it.
Firmware first: BIOS and the Windows send-off
Goal. Get firmware current and validate the hardware while the shipped Windows install is still around to help, then wipe with confidence.
Covers. The MSI BIOS update path; why a prebuilt machine ships with stale firmware; the license-in-firmware quirk that makes the Windows send-off painless; and the preflight hardware validation I run before I erase the only OS the vendor tested.
Theory
Why firmware is the first thing, not an afterthought
It is tempting to treat the BIOS as something you only touch when something is broken. On a brand-new prebuilt machine that instinct is exactly backwards, and the reason is a supply-chain timing gap. A system like the MSI Aegis R2 (A2NVV9-2218US) is assembled, imaged, boxed, warehoused, and shipped. The firmware flashed onto the board happened at the earliest point in that chain, often months before the box reaches me. Firmware, meanwhile, is where a lot of the platform's hardware-enablement work lives: memory training for the DDR5 kit, PCIe link stability, CPU microcode, fan and thermal curves, and compatibility fixes for exactly the kind of new silicon this machine has.
The baseline machine is a genuinely new platform on two fronts at once. The CPU is an Intel Core Ultra 9 285 (Arrow Lake), and the GPU is an RTX 5080 (Blackwell). New CPU platforms in particular tend to accumulate a rapid series of early BIOS releases that fix memory compatibility, boot reliability, and microcode issues discovered after launch. The firmware that shipped on my board predates most of those fixes by construction. So updating the BIOS before I do anything else is not superstition; it is me pulling in months of platform fixes that the factory image could not have included.
Early Arrow Lake platforms saw several BIOS revisions in their first months addressing memory training and boot stability. If you skip the BIOS update and later chase a flaky-boot or memory-instability ghost on Linux, you can burn a day blaming the NVIDIA driver or the kernel when the actual fix was a firmware release that shipped after your unit was boxed. Update firmware first, precisely so that when something misbehaves later you have already eliminated the single most likely stale-platform cause.
License-in-firmware: why the Windows send-off is clean
There is a small, delightful fact about modern OEM Windows that makes wiping the shipped install stress-free: the Windows license is not a sticker anymore, and it is not a file on the disk. Since the OEM Activation 3.0 scheme, the Windows product key for a prebuilt machine is embedded in the firmware, in an ACPI table called MSDM (Microsoft Digital Marker). The key lives in the BIOS. That means I can erase the entire drive, install Linux, and the Windows entitlement is still sitting safely in firmware. If I ever need Windows back on this hardware (for a firmware tool that only ships as a Windows binary, say), a fresh Windows installer reads the MSDM key from the board and activates automatically, no key entry, no phone call.
You can see the key before you wipe, which is a nice way to confirm the machine is genuinely licensed and that the send-off will be clean. From the shipped Windows, an elevated PowerShell prompt reports it:
(Get-WmiObject -Query 'SELECT * FROM SoftwareLicensingService').OA3xOriginalProductKey
If that returns a key, the MSDM table is populated and the entitlement will survive the wipe. Later, from Linux, you can confirm the same table is present without any Windows at all:
# The MSDM ACPI table is what holds the OEM Windows key in firmware.
sudo test -f /sys/firmware/acpi/tables/MSDM && echo "MSDM present (Windows entitlement lives in firmware)" || echo "no MSDM table"
The practical upshot: I do not need to hoard a product key, and I do not need to feel precious about the shipped OS. The license is in the board. I keep the shipped Windows just long enough to do the firmware update and the burn-in, then I erase it without a second thought.
Why validate hardware before wiping
Here is the reasoning that gives this chapter its shape. The shipped Windows install is the only software configuration the vendor actually tested against this exact hardware. Its drivers are matched, its diagnostic tools run natively, and if a component is dead on arrival, the vendor's own utilities will say so in language their support desk understands. The moment I wipe it, I take on the burden of proving that every hardware fault is not my fault. So I do my destructive-testing and my burn-in while the vendor's known-good environment is still on the disk. If the memory is bad, the GPU is unstable, or a fan does not spin, I want to find out now, with a clean RMA story ("your shipped OS, your diagnostic tool, your fault"), not three weeks into a Linux setup where support will reasonably ask whether I broke it myself.
There is also a firmware-update safety argument for keeping Windows briefly. MSI's most convenient BIOS-flashing tools historically run as Windows applications, and while the board also supports flashing from a USB stick via the BIOS itself (M-Flash), doing the first update from the vendor's own environment removes a variable. So the order is deliberate: update firmware from the tested OS, burn in on the tested OS, capture the preflight results, and only then erase.
What a burn-in is actually looking for
It helps to be precise about what sustained-load testing catches, because "stress test" is a vague phrase that hides three distinct failure modes. The first is infant mortality: components that are marginal from the factory tend to fail early, under their first real thermal cycling, rather than randomly across their lifetime. A half-hour of full load is a compressed version of that early stress, so if a solder joint, a fan bearing, or a VRM is going to die young, I would much rather provoke it now, inside the warranty window and on the vendor's OS, than three weeks into a training run. The second is thermal design error: a heatsink that was not seated flat, a fan curve that ramps too late, or case airflow that recirculates hot air will not show up in a five-second check but will show up as a temperature that keeps climbing toward the throttle point under sustained load. The third is power delivery instability: a PSU that sags under combined CPU-plus-GPU load, which manifests as a crash or reset only when both are hammered at once, which is why I run a brief combined-load pass and not just each component alone.
None of these three is a correctness problem, which is the important distinction from the memory test. MemTest86 is looking for silent wrongness (a bit that flips and corrupts data with no crash). The burn-in is looking for instability and heat (a machine that crashes, throttles, or degrades under load). A thorough preflight needs both, because they fail differently and a machine can pass one while failing the other. A GPU with perfect memory can still thermal-throttle a long training run into uselessness, and a perfectly cool machine can still have one bad DRAM cell that quietly poisons a checkpoint.
A prebuilt vendor does run functional tests, but those are fast pass/fail checks designed for throughput on an assembly line, not multi-hour thermal soaks on your specific unit in your specific room at your specific altitude and ambient temperature. Their test proves the machine POSTs and the parts respond; it does not prove your unit holds clocks at your desk after twenty minutes. The gap between 'it powered on and passed QA' and 'it sustains full load without throttling in my environment' is exactly the gap a personal burn-in closes, which is why I do it even on a machine that arrived with a passing factory sticker.
Tooling
Three tools carry this chapter: MSI's firmware update path, a memory tester, and a GPU/CPU stress harness. I will name the actual surfaces here and drive them in the Lab.
MSI BIOS updates come from the product's own support page. Every MSI board reports its exact model and current BIOS version, and the support page lists BIOS releases with dates and per-release changelogs. There are two ways to apply one. M-Flash reboots into the BIOS and flashes from a FAT32 USB stick holding the BIOS file, and it is the method I trust for the actual flash because it does not depend on a running OS. MSI Center (Windows) can also fetch and apply updates, which is convenient for discovering that an update exists. My rule: discover the version any way, flash with M-Flash.
You can read the current firmware version from either OS. From Linux:
sudo dmidecode -s bios-version
sudo dmidecode -s bios-release-date
sudo dmidecode -s baseboard-product-name
sudo dmidecode -s system-product-name # should report the Aegis R2 SKU
MemTest86 is the memory tester. Bad or mistrained DDR5 is the single most insidious fault for this kind of work, because it produces silent corruption, not clean crashes: a flipped bit in a weight tensor or a training batch just makes your numbers subtly wrong. MemTest86 boots from its own USB stick, outside any OS, and walks the full address space with a battery of patterns. It is the one test I never skip.
Stress and burn-in is about heat and sustained load, not correctness. A prebuilt machine can pass a five-second check and then throttle or crash under twenty minutes of real load because a heatsink is poorly seated or a fan curve is wrong. On the shipped Windows I use FurMark for the GPU and Prime95 (or MSI's built-in stress tooling) for the CPU, watching temperatures and clocks. On Linux later I will re-run an equivalent sustained-load test as part of acceptance (Chapter 0.7); here the goal is only to shake out infant mortality while the warranty environment is intact.
M-Flash erases the SPI flash chip on the motherboard that holds the UEFI firmware and writes the new image in its place. During the write, the board is running from a small resident stub, not from a complete firmware. If power is lost mid-write, the flash can be left half-written and the board will not POST, which is the classic "bricked BIOS" failure. This is why you flash from a stable power state, why you do not touch the machine while it runs, and why laptops refuse to flash on battery. The Aegis R2, like most modern MSI boards, has Flash BIOS Button hardware recovery that can reflash from USB even with no CPU or RAM installed, which is a strong safety net, but the discipline is the same: start the flash, then leave it completely alone until it reboots itself.
Lab
The artifact for this chapter is a filled-in preflight checklist committed alongside the machine log. It is the document I would show a warranty desk, and later the first page of the machine's provenance. I run the whole sequence from the shipped Windows (for the flash and the stress tests) plus a couple of confirmations from a Linux live USB, and I record every result with a value, a date, and the firmware version in effect.
Step 1 - record the as-shipped state
Before changing anything, capture what arrived. Boot a Linux live USB (or use the shipped Windows) and read the identifiers:
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Capture the as-shipped hardware and firmware identity.
# Run from a Linux live USB or the shipped OS. Output is the top of the preflight log.
set -euo pipefail
OUT="preflight-$(date +%Y%m%d).log"
{
echo "# Preflight record - $(date --iso-8601=seconds)"
echo
echo "## Firmware"
echo "BIOS version : $(sudo dmidecode -s bios-version)"
echo "BIOS date : $(sudo dmidecode -s bios-release-date)"
echo "Board : $(sudo dmidecode -s baseboard-product-name)"
echo "System : $(sudo dmidecode -s system-product-name)"
echo
echo "## CPU"
lscpu | grep -E 'Model name|Socket|Core\(s\)|Thread'
echo
echo "## Memory"
sudo dmidecode -t memory | grep -E 'Size|Speed|Manufacturer|Part Number' | grep -v 'No Module'
echo
echo "## GPU (PCI view; driver not required)"
lspci | grep -Ei 'vga|3d|display'
echo
echo "## Windows entitlement"
if sudo test -f /sys/firmware/acpi/tables/MSDM; then
echo "MSDM present - Windows license lives in firmware, safe to wipe"
else
echo "MSDM absent - investigate before wiping"
fi
} | tee "$OUT"
echo "Wrote $OUT"
Step 2 - update the BIOS
Find the current BIOS version (Step 1) and compare it to the latest release on the MSI product support page for this exact SKU. If the board is behind, download the latest BIOS, unzip it to a freshly FAT32-formatted USB stick, and flash with M-Flash:
1. Copy the unzipped BIOS file to the root of a FAT32 USB stick.
2. Reboot; press Del to enter BIOS setup.
3. Select M-Flash; confirm the reboot into the flash utility.
4. Choose the BIOS file on the USB stick; confirm.
5. Wait. The board writes flash and reboots itself, possibly twice.
Do NOT power off, do NOT press keys until it returns to POST.
6. Re-enter BIOS; confirm the new version string; load optimized defaults.
Record the before and after versions in the log. This is the single most important line in the whole preflight, because it timestamps the platform state that every later measurement in the book assumes.
Step 3 - memory test
Boot MemTest86 from its own USB stick and run at least one full pass (all tests). A full pass on 32 GB of DDR5 takes a while (the exact wall-clock is a machine-log entry; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, firmware). Zero errors is the only acceptable result. A single error means RMA the memory now, before it silently corrupts a checkpoint later.
Step 4 - sustained-load burn-in
From the shipped Windows, run the GPU and CPU under sustained load and watch temperatures and clocks. The purpose is to catch throttling and infant mortality, not to benchmark:
GPU : FurMark, stress preset, ~20-30 min. Watch for artifacts,
driver resets, or thermal throttling. Log peak GPU temp (°C)
and whether clocks held.
CPU : Prime95 (Small FFTs) or MSI's stress tool, ~20-30 min.
Log peak package temp (°C) and whether any core threw errors.
Both : run together briefly to check the PSU and case airflow under
combined load.
All temperatures and clocks here are machine-log entries; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, firmware. The pass condition is qualitative and strict: no crashes, no artifacts, no driver resets, and temperatures that plateau below throttling rather than climbing without bound.
Step 5 - fill and commit the checklist
The artifact is this filled-in checklist, saved as preflight-<date>.md next to the log from Step 1 and committed to the machine-log repository (the same repo Chapter 0.3 uses for the nvidia-smi capture):
# Preflight checklist - MSI Aegis R2 (A2NVV9-2218US)
- Date: ____________________ Operator: ____________________
- BIOS before: __________ → BIOS after: __________ (release date: ______)
- CPU reported: Intel Core Ultra 9 285 [ ] confirmed
- GPU reported: NVIDIA RTX 5080 16GB [ ] confirmed
- Memory: 32 GB DDR5, ____ MT/s, all slots seen [ ] confirmed
- NVMe: 1 TB present, SMART healthy [ ] confirmed
- MSDM present (Windows license in firmware) [ ] confirmed
- MemTest86: ____ full pass(es), errors: ____ [ ] PASS (0 errors)
- GPU burn-in: ____ min, peak ____ °C, clocks held? [ ] PASS
- CPU burn-in: ____ min, peak ____ °C, errors: ____ [ ] PASS
- Combined load: stable? ____ [ ] PASS
- Decision: [ ] proceed to wipe [ ] RMA - reason: ______________
What you should see. By the end of this sequence you should be holding a single committed document that says, in effect: the firmware is current as of a named release and date, the memory passed a full MemTest86 sweep with zero errors, and the GPU and CPU held stable temperatures under half an hour of sustained load each. Every blank is filled with a real value and a real date. The Windows entitlement is confirmed to live in firmware, so the shipped OS is now expendable. That document is your license to wipe: from here on, every problem you hit is a software problem on a hardware base you have personally proven, and the next chapter can erase Windows without a shred of anxiety.
For the committee, the preflight checklist is the provenance root of the entire measurement chain. Every performance number later in the thesis is implicitly conditioned on "hardware that passed preflight on date D at firmware version V." Committing this document, rather than trusting memory, is what lets a reader distinguish a genuine result from an artifact of faulty RAM or a throttling GPU. It is cheap insurance against the most embarrassing possible failure: a beautiful reasoning-delta curve that turns out to be a bad memory module.
There is a satisfying post in the phrase "the license is in the board." Most people still picture a Windows key as a sticker or a slip of paper, and the reveal that a prebuilt machine carries its entitlement in an ACPI firmware table (MSDM) reframes the whole ritual of wiping a new PC: you are not throwing away something precious, you are freeing hardware whose license can never actually leave it. Pair that with the counterintuitive advice to stress-test before you wipe, not after, and you have a tidy piece about doing destructive things carefully: prove the machine with the vendor's own known-good tools while you still can, so that every later fault has a clean owner.
Ubuntu 24.04 on Blackwell
Goal. Install Ubuntu 24.04 with a kernel and driver that actually drive Blackwell and Arrow Lake, and prove the GPU link is what the spec promises.
Covers. Point-release and HWE kernels, and why a recent kernel matters for Arrow Lake and the Wi-Fi module; Secure Boot and MOK enrollment; nomodeset recovery; the NVIDIA 570-open driver and why Blackwell requires the open kernel modules; and verifying the PCIe Gen5 x16 link.
Theory
Why the kernel version is the first Linux decision
On older, well-worn hardware you can install more or less any Ubuntu and it just works, because the kernel that ships in the installer already contains drivers for silicon that has been in the wild for years. The baseline machine is the opposite case. Both the CPU (Core Ultra 9 285, Arrow Lake) and the platform around it (the Wi-Fi module, the chipset, the integrated graphics on the CPU) are new enough that hardware enablement for them landed in the Linux kernel only recently. Install too old a kernel and the symptoms are exactly the annoying ones: no Wi-Fi, flaky suspend, missing sensors, an integrated GPU the kernel does not recognize.
Ubuntu solves this with two mechanisms, and it is worth understanding both because they interact. The first is point releases: 24.04 gets periodic refreshes (24.04.1, 24.04.2, and so on), and each point release rolls in a newer kernel and updated installer media. Installing from the latest point-release ISO, rather than the original 24.04.0 media, is the single cheapest way to start on a kernel that already knows about your hardware. The second is the HWE (Hardware Enablement) stack: an LTS release can track a newer "hardware enablement" kernel backported from a later Ubuntu, so that a 24.04 LTS machine can run a kernel several versions ahead of the one it launched with while keeping the LTS userland. For new silicon, HWE is the difference between "supported eventually" and "supported now."
If you install from the original 24.04.0 ISO on this platform, do not be surprised if the Wi-Fi module is invisible and the installer cannot reach the network to fetch fixes - a chicken-and-egg trap. The fix is to install from the latest 24.04 point-release ISO (which carries a newer kernel) and to have a wired connection or a USB Ethernet/Wi-Fi dongle on hand for the first boot, so you can pull the HWE kernel and updates even if the built-in Wi-Fi is not yet happy. Confirm your running kernel afterward with uname -r and make sure it is the HWE line, not the base GA line.
The reasoning that follows from this: I install from the newest point-release media I can get, I make sure the HWE kernel meta-package is installed so that future kernel updates track hardware enablement, and I keep a wired fallback for the first boot. A recent kernel is not a nice-to-have on this machine; it is the precondition for the machine being fully usable at all.
Secure Boot, MOK, and signed kernel modules
Modern Ubuntu ships with Secure Boot enabled, and Secure Boot's whole job is to refuse to load kernel code that is not signed by a key the firmware trusts. That is a good default, but it collides with the fact that the NVIDIA driver is an out-of-tree kernel module that has to be compiled and inserted on your machine. A freshly built NVIDIA module is not signed by anything the firmware knows about, so with Secure Boot on, the kernel will refuse to load it, and you get a system that boots to a black screen or falls back to software rendering with no NVIDIA driver in sight.
Ubuntu's answer is MOK, the Machine Owner Key. When the driver is installed via DKMS, Ubuntu generates a local signing key, signs the module with it, and asks you to enroll that key into the firmware's trust store on the next reboot, through a blue MOK-management screen that appears before the OS loads. You confirm enrollment with a password you set during install, and from then on the firmware trusts modules signed by your local key. It is a one-time dance per key, and skipping it (or clicking through it wrong) is the most common reason a correctly installed NVIDIA driver still will not load.
Secure Boot verifies a signature chain rooted in keys held in firmware NVRAM: Microsoft's keys, the OEM's, and - after enrollment - yours. MOK enrollment appends your locally generated public key to the Machine Owner Key list, which the shim bootloader consults in addition to the firmware db. After that, any module signed by the matching private key (which DKMS uses automatically on every kernel or driver rebuild) passes verification. This is why you enroll once but never have to re-sign manually: DKMS re-signs on each rebuild with the same enrolled key. If you ever reset Secure Boot keys in the BIOS, you invalidate the enrollment and must repeat the dance. You can check the current state any time with mokutil --sb-state and list enrolled keys with mokutil --list-enrolled.
nomodeset: the recovery hatch
There is a failure mode worth pre-loading into your head before it happens, because it happens at the worst time: you finish the install, reboot, and get a black screen or an unusable low-resolution desktop, because the graphics stack tried to mode-set on a GPU whose driver is not ready. The escape hatch is a kernel boot parameter, nomodeset, which tells the kernel not to hand graphics mode-setting to the GPU driver at boot, falling back to a generic framebuffer. That gets you a working (if ugly) desktop or console from which you can fix the real driver situation.
You reach it from the GRUB menu at boot: highlight the Ubuntu entry, press e, find the linux line, and append nomodeset before booting. It is temporary (it does not survive a reboot unless you edit the GRUB config), which is exactly what you want: use it to get in, fix the driver, and reboot back to a normal graphical boot. On a Blackwell card especially, where the correct driver is non-negotiable (see below), nomodeset is the difference between "recoverable" and "reinstall from USB."
Why Blackwell requires the open kernel modules
Here is the piece that is specific to this generation and trips people up. NVIDIA ships its Linux driver in two kernel-module flavors: the long-standing proprietary modules, and the newer open modules (often written "open" or "-open", e.g. nvidia-driver-570-open). "Open" here refers to the kernel-module source being open; the userspace CUDA stack is unchanged. For older GPUs you could choose either. For Blackwell you cannot: the RTX 5080 and its GB20x-generation siblings are supported only by the open kernel modules. The proprietary modules do not support these GPUs at all. So on the baseline machine, "NVIDIA 570-open" is not a preference, it is the only thing that will drive the card.
The reason is architectural. NVIDIA moved the driver's hardware-management logic into a GPU System Processor (GSP) firmware blob that runs on the card itself, and the open kernel modules are built around that GSP-firmware model. Newer architectures (Turing onward, and mandatorily on the latest generations) are designed for this split, which is why the open modules are the supported path for them and the sole path for Blackwell. Practically: I install nvidia-driver-570-open (the 570 branch is the one that carries Blackwell support), and if I ever see advice to install the plain nvidia-driver-570 proprietary variant on this card, I ignore it, because it will not load.
If you install the non-open nvidia-driver-570 (or an ubuntu-drivers autoinstall that happens to pick the proprietary flavor) on the RTX 5080, the modules will build but the GPU will not come up - you get a black screen or a fallback to the iGPU, and nvidia-smi reports no devices. The fix is to purge it and install the -open variant explicitly. Always confirm with nvidia-smi that the card is actually detected before you conclude the driver "installed"; a successful apt install is not proof the module drives the hardware.
Verifying the Gen5 x16 link
The last piece of theory is a habit: never assume the GPU negotiated the link you paid for. The RTX 5080 sits in a PCIe Gen5 x16 slot, and a Gen5 x16 link is a lot of bandwidth. But a reseated card, a slot that shares lanes with an NVMe drive, a BIOS setting, or a marginal riser can silently negotiate down to x8, or to Gen4, and nothing will crash. The only symptom is throughput that is quietly lower than it should be, which is precisely the kind of bug that poisons benchmarks. So verifying the link speed and width after install is a standing acceptance step, and I capture the result into the machine log the same way I capture nvidia-smi.
Why apt and DKMS instead of NVIDIA's .run installer
There are two ways to put the NVIDIA driver on a Linux box, and the choice matters more on this stack than it looks. NVIDIA ships a self-contained .run installer that compiles and installs the driver directly, and Ubuntu ships the same driver as apt packages that build the kernel module through DKMS (Dynamic Kernel Module Support). I use the apt/DKMS path, and the reason is the interaction between three moving parts: the HWE kernel (which updates), Secure Boot (which demands signed modules), and the driver (which is an out-of-tree module that must be rebuilt for each kernel).
DKMS automates exactly that interaction. When the HWE kernel updates (and on this machine it will, because hardware enablement is still landing), DKMS automatically rebuilds the NVIDIA module against the new kernel and re-signs it with the enrolled MOK key, so the driver keeps working across kernel upgrades with no manual intervention. The .run installer does none of that: it builds the module once against the current kernel, and the next kernel update leaves you with a driver that will not load, at which point you are re-running the installer from a text console. On a Secure Boot machine the .run path is worse still, because you have to arrange module signing yourself. So the packaged path is not just more convenient, it is the one that composes correctly with the two things this chapter already committed to: a kernel that moves and a Secure Boot chain that must stay signed.
If you ever install the NVIDIA .run driver and later try to install the apt driver (or vice versa) without fully removing the first, you can end up with two half-installed drivers fighting over the same files, which produces exactly the black-screen-on-boot symptom that is maddening to diagnose. Pick one path and stay on it. On this stack the path is apt install nvidia-driver-570-open; if you ever used the .run installer, run its --uninstall before switching, and confirm with dpkg -l | grep nvidia that the package state is clean.
Tooling
The tools here are the Ubuntu installer, apt plus ubuntu-drivers, mokutil, and nvidia-smi and lspci for verification.
The installer is Ubuntu Desktop 24.04, latest point release. I use the normal graphical installer, choose to erase the disk (the shipped Windows is already validated and expendable, per Chapter 0.2), and set a Secure Boot / MOK password when prompted so third-party drivers can be signed and enrolled.
Driver installation goes through Ubuntu's packaging rather than NVIDIA's .run installer, because apt + DKMS handle the MOK signing and the kernel-rebuild-on-update automatically. ubuntu-drivers devices lists the recommended driver; I install the -open package explicitly rather than trusting autoinstall to pick the flavor.
mokutil inspects and manages Secure Boot and MOK state. nvidia-smi is the ground truth that the driver is actually driving the card. lspci -vv reports the negotiated PCIe link speed and width.
"570" is the driver branch (the version series that carries Blackwell support). "-open" is the kernel-module flavor (open-source kernel modules, mandatory for Blackwell). "HWE" is the hardware-enablement kernel line for the 24.04 LTS. "MOK" is your local module-signing key for Secure Boot. None of these are interchangeable, and mixing them up is the source of most install-day pain. When in doubt: 570-open kernel modules, HWE kernel, MOK enrolled.
Lab
The full sequence is: install Ubuntu from current media, get onto the HWE kernel, install the 570-open driver, enroll MOK, reboot, then capture nvidia-smi and the PCIe link speed and commit both to a machine-log repository. The artifact is that committed capture.
Step 1 - install and reach the HWE kernel
Install Ubuntu Desktop 24.04 (latest point release), erasing the disk. On first boot, get online (wired or a USB dongle if built-in Wi-Fi is not yet happy), then update and ensure the HWE kernel stack is installed:
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Get fully updated and onto the HWE (hardware-enablement) kernel line.
set -euo pipefail
sudo apt update && sudo apt full-upgrade -y
# HWE kernel meta-package for 24.04 (the -generic-hwe metapackage already
# pulls the matching linux-image, so I do not name it separately).
sudo apt install -y \
linux-generic-hwe-24.04 \
build-essential dkms mokutil pciutils
echo "Reboot, then confirm the running kernel:"
echo " uname -r # expect the HWE kernel, not the base GA kernel"
Reboot and confirm with uname -r that you are on the HWE kernel line.
Step 2 - install the 570-open driver
Check what Ubuntu recommends, then install the open flavor explicitly:
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Install the NVIDIA 570 OPEN kernel modules - mandatory for Blackwell (RTX 5080).
set -euo pipefail
# See what Ubuntu detects/recommends (informational).
ubuntu-drivers devices || true
# Install the OPEN 570 driver explicitly. Do NOT install the non-open variant on Blackwell.
# The 570 branch ships in 24.04.2+; on older point releases it may be absent from
# the archive, in which case add the graphics-drivers PPA first:
# sudo add-apt-repository ppa:graphics-drivers/ppa && sudo apt update
sudo apt update
sudo apt install -y nvidia-driver-570-open
echo
echo "During install, DKMS signs the module with a local MOK key."
echo "On the NEXT reboot you MUST complete MOK enrollment:"
echo " - a blue 'Perform MOK management' screen appears BEFORE the OS loads"
echo " - choose 'Enroll MOK' -> Continue -> Yes -> enter the password you set"
echo " - the machine reboots and the module can now load under Secure Boot"
Step 3 - enroll MOK and reboot
Reboot. Before the OS loads, the blue MOK-management screen appears. Choose Enroll MOK, Continue, Yes, and enter the password. The machine reboots into a normal graphical session with the NVIDIA driver loaded. Confirm Secure Boot and enrollment state:
mokutil --sb-state # expect: SecureBoot enabled
mokutil --list-enrolled | grep -i -A2 'Signature key' || true
If the driver still will not load, this is where nomodeset earns its keep: reboot, edit the GRUB linux line to append nomodeset, boot to a working desktop, and re-check the driver install and MOK state from there.
Step 4 - capture the proof and commit it
Now produce the artifact. This script captures the driver state and the negotiated PCIe link and writes a dated log for the machine-log repository:
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Capture nvidia-smi + PCIe link speed/width as the machine-log artifact for this install.
set -euo pipefail
STAMP="$(date --iso-8601=seconds)"
OUT="gpu-state-$(date +%Y%m%d).log"
# Find the NVIDIA GPU's PCI address for the link query (select by NVIDIA vendor id 10de).
GPU_ADDR="$(lspci -d 10de: | grep -Ei 'vga|3d' | head -n1 | awk '{print $1}')"
{
echo "# GPU state capture - $STAMP"
echo "kernel : $(uname -r)"
echo "secure boot : $(mokutil --sb-state 2>/dev/null || echo 'unknown')"
echo
echo "## nvidia-smi"
nvidia-smi
echo
echo "## Driver / CUDA versions"
nvidia-smi --query-gpu=driver_version,name,memory.total --format=csv
echo
echo "## PCIe link (negotiated) for $GPU_ADDR"
# LnkSta is the negotiated state; expect Speed 32GT/s (Gen5), Width x16.
sudo lspci -vv -s "$GPU_ADDR" | grep -E 'LnkCap|LnkSta'
echo
echo "## PCIe link (as nvidia-smi sees it)"
nvidia-smi --query-gpu=pcie.link.gen.current,pcie.link.width.current --format=csv
} | tee "$OUT"
echo "Wrote $OUT - commit this to the machine-log repo."
Commit the result to a small, dedicated machine-log git repository (the same one that holds the Chapter 0.2 preflight checklist). That repo becomes the machine's permanent provenance record: firmware version, install date, driver version, and link speed, all timestamped.
cd ~/machine-log
cp ~/gpu-state-*.log ./
git add gpu-state-*.log preflight-*.md
git commit -m "Install capture: 570-open driver + PCIe link on Aegis R2"
What you should see. The nvidia-smi table should print with the card named as an RTX 5080, 16 GB (16384 MiB) total memory, and a driver version on the 570 branch. Secure Boot should report enabled, and the driver should still load, which together prove MOK enrollment worked. The PCIe capture should show the negotiated link at Gen5 (32 GT/s) and width x16 in both the lspci LnkSta line and the nvidia-smi query; if either reads x8 or Gen4, stop and investigate the slot, the BIOS, and the card seating before trusting any throughput number later. The concrete values (exact driver build, temperatures, clocks) are machine-log entries; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver. The committed gpu-state-*.log is the artifact: from here on, any performance claim in the book can be traced to a machine whose driver and link speed are on the record.
For the committee, this capture pins two of the five things every run logs (Chapter 0.6): the driver version and the hardware link state. A reasoning-delta number is only comparable across time if the driver did not silently change and the GPU did not silently negotiate down. Committing the nvidia-smi and PCIe capture at install, and re-checking it during acceptance, is what lets the thesis assert that a before/after comparison ran on the same physical substrate rather than on a card that quietly halved its bandwidth between runs.
The sharp, shareable idea here is "on this GPU there is only one right driver, and it is the open one." Most people still carry the folk knowledge that NVIDIA's proprietary driver is the real one and the open modules are a lesser open-source alternative. Blackwell flips that: the open kernel modules are mandatory and the proprietary ones simply do not support the card. That inversion is a clean hook for a post about how fast the ground moves in this field, wrapped around the genuinely useful, save-your-evening tips: install from current media so Wi-Fi exists, keep nomodeset in your back pocket, and never trust that a GPU negotiated the PCIe link on the box until lspci tells you it did.
uv and the two-environment doctrine
Goal. Establish one canonical way to manage Python, and separate the serving stack from the training stack so their dependencies never fight.
Covers. uv as a toolchain (Python pinning, virtual environments, lockfiles, uv run); why serve and train stay in separate projects; and a repository layout of two uv projects, serve/ and train/, each with a committed uv.lock.
Theory
One tool for the whole Python surface
Python environment management has historically been a pile of tools that each do one slice: pyenv to pick an interpreter, venv to make an environment, pip to install, pip-tools or poetry to lock. Every seam between them is a place for "works on my machine" to hide. uv collapses that whole pile into one fast tool. It installs and pins Python interpreters, creates virtual environments, resolves and installs dependencies, writes a cross-platform lockfile, and runs commands inside the environment, all from one binary. For a book whose entire premise is that nothing should be a black box, having one tool with one mental model for "what Python, which packages, exactly which versions" is worth a lot.
The reason I standardize on uv, and forbid myself bare pip and python -m venv for the rest of the book, is reproducibility with teeth. A requirements.txt full of loose version ranges tells you what you asked for, not what you got. uv's lockfile records the exact resolved version and hash of every package in the dependency graph, transitively, so that uv sync on another day rebuilds the identical environment or fails loudly if it cannot. When a reasoning-delta number in Part 7 looks surprising, the first question is always "did the environment change," and a committed uv.lock answers it definitively instead of with a shrug.
uv resolves your declared dependencies (in pyproject.toml) into a fully pinned dependency graph and writes it to uv.lock, including exact versions and content hashes. uv sync then materializes a .venv from that lock, and because uv keeps a global content-addressed cache of downloaded wheels and hardlinks them into each environment, creating an environment is mostly filesystem links rather than downloads. The interpreter itself can be a uv-managed build pinned by uv python pin, so "which Python" is recorded too. The net effect: the tuple (pyproject.toml, uv.lock, pinned Python) fully determines the environment, and rebuilding it is a link-heavy, near-instant operation rather than a fresh compile-and-download.
Why serve and train are two environments, not one
Here is the doctrine, and it falls directly out of the 16 GB constraint and out of dependency reality. The serving stack (vLLM) and the training stack (Unsloth, and the PyTorch/transformers/TRL/bitsandbytes constellation around it) are two large, fast-moving, deeply-pinned dependency trees. They both pin specific versions of PyTorch, CUDA-linked libraries, transformers, and low-level kernels, and those pins do not agree. Trying to satisfy both in one environment forces the resolver into a compromise that makes at least one of them unhappy, and the failure is often not a clean resolver error but a subtle runtime breakage: a kernel compiled against the wrong CUDA minor, an attention backend that silently falls back to a slow path, a transformers version that one side needs and the other rejects.
So I keep them apart, and the separation buys three distinct things. First, clean resolution: each project locks its own coherent dependency graph with no cross-contamination, so vLLM gets exactly the stack it wants and Unsloth gets exactly the stack it wants. Second, temporal separation on the GPU: the loop already serves and trains at different times (Chapter 0.1), never both at once on 16 GB, so there is no reason to co-resident their software either; two environments make "one heavy thing at a time" the path of least resistance. Third, independent evolution: I can bump vLLM to chase a serving improvement without touching the trainer, and re-lock only serve/, so a serving upgrade cannot silently perturb a training result. Each environment moves on its own clock, and each uv.lock timestamps that clock.
If you try to uv add vllm and uv add unsloth into the same project, the best case is a slow, thrashing resolution that ends in a conflict you have to hand-arbitrate; the worse case is a resolution that "succeeds" but pins a PyTorch or CUDA-linked library version that one side then mis-uses at runtime, giving you a slow attention path or an import-time CUDA error that looks like a hardware problem. Keep them in separate projects. The seam between serving and training in this book is an HTTP endpoint (Chapter 0.1), not a shared Python process, so there is never a technical need for them to share an interpreter.
Why not conda, poetry, or bare pip
It is fair to ask why uv specifically, given that conda, poetry, pipenv, and plain pip-plus-venv all exist and all "work." The honest answer is a combination of speed, correctness, and scope. Conda solves the interpreter-and-native-library problem well but is slow to resolve and pulls packages from its own channels, which drifts from the PyPI reality that vLLM and Unsloth actually publish to. Poetry locks nicely but does not manage the Python interpreter itself and has historically been slow on large graphs. Bare pip does not lock at all in any reproducible way without bolting on pip-tools, and python -m venv leaves you managing interpreters by hand. uv does the whole span (interpreter, environment, resolution, locking, running) in one fast tool, with a lockfile that pins exact versions and hashes, which is precisely the reproducibility property this book needs. So the choice is not fashion; it is that uv is the one tool whose scope matches "pin everything and rebuild it identically," which is the only workflow a measurement-driven thesis can trust.
The corollary is the rule I enforce on myself for the rest of the book: no bare pip install, ever, and no python -m venv, ever. The moment I pip install something into an environment imperatively, that environment stops being a pure function of the committed lockfile and becomes a snowflake that only exists on this machine, at this moment, in a state no one can reproduce. Every dependency enters through uv add so it lands in pyproject.toml and uv.lock, and every command runs through uv run so it uses the locked environment. It is a small discipline that pays off the first time I need to reproduce a three-month-old result and find that uv sync on the old commit just works.
The evaluator is a thin third thing, and that is deliberate
A fair question: if serve and train each get an environment, where does the evaluation harness (Inspect) live? The answer is that the evaluator talks to the model over the OpenAI-compatible HTTP endpoint, so it only needs a light client stack, not the heavy serving or training dependencies. In practice Inspect can live in its own small environment or ride along in whichever project is convenient, because it never imports vLLM or Unsloth; it makes HTTP calls. I will pin down its exact home when Part 3 builds the eval harness. The point for now is that the two heavyweight environments are the ones the doctrine is about, and the evaluator's independence from both is a feature of the endpoint seam, not an afterthought.
The lockfile is a contract, and CI can enforce it
A lockfile is only worth committing if it is treated as a contract rather than a suggestion, and the discipline that makes it a contract is small: I never edit uv.lock by hand, I only ever regenerate it through uv, and I treat an unexpected change to it in a diff as a signal that something moved that I should understand before I commit. The payoff is that the pair (pyproject.toml, uv.lock) becomes a checkable claim. If I check out an old commit to reproduce an old result, uv sync rebuilds the exact environment that produced it, or it fails loudly because a wheel is no longer available, in which case I know immediately that the old result cannot be reproduced with today's package index rather than discovering it silently through a subtly different number.
This is also where the two-environment doctrine pays a second dividend. Because each environment is locked independently, I can verify each one in isolation, and I can bisect a problem to one side. If a serving benchmark regresses, I check whether serve/uv.lock changed since the last good run; the training stack is provably irrelevant because it is a different lockfile that was not touched. Without the split, every dependency change is a change to one giant shared environment, and I lose the ability to say "the serving stack is identical, so the regression is not in the serving dependencies." The separation turns "the environment changed" from an undifferentiated worry into a precise, attributable fact.
```admonish under-the-hood title="Why uv sync is safe to run anywhere, anytime"
uv sync is idempotent and total: it makes the .venv exactly match uv.lock, adding what is missing, removing what should not be there, and downgrading what drifted, without consulting pyproject.toml's loose ranges at all. That means running it is never a gamble. It cannot silently upgrade you, because upgrades only happen when you deliberately re-resolve with uv add or uv lock. This is the property that makes the lockfile a contract rather than a starting point: the environment is a pure function of the committed lock, and uv sync is how you evaluate that function. It is why every chapter can open with uv sync and trust exactly what it gets.
## Tooling
The uv command surface I actually use is small and worth memorizing, because it recurs in every later chapter.
- `uv init <dir>` creates a new project: a `pyproject.toml`, a pinned Python, and the scaffolding for a `.venv`.
- `uv python pin <version>` records which Python this project uses, writing `.python-version`.
- `uv add <pkg>` adds a dependency, resolves it, updates `pyproject.toml`, and updates `uv.lock`.
- `uv sync` materializes the `.venv` to exactly match `uv.lock` (installing, removing, or downgrading as needed).
- `uv lock` re-resolves and rewrites `uv.lock` from `pyproject.toml` without changing the running environment.
- `uv run <cmd>` runs a command inside the project's environment, syncing first if needed, so you never manually `source .venv/bin/activate`.
The habit that makes this reproducible: I never install into an environment imperatively and hope. I declare dependencies in `pyproject.toml` (via `uv add`), commit the resulting `uv.lock`, and reconstruct anywhere with `uv sync`. `uv run` is how every script in this book is invoked, so the environment is always the locked one, never whatever happens to be on `PATH`.
```admonish read-along title="Why `uv run`, always"
Activating a virtual environment by hand is a stateful, forgettable act - the classic bug is running a script against the wrong `.venv` because you forgot which one was active. `uv run python train.py` binds the command to *this project's* locked environment every time, with no activation step to forget. Throughout the book, whenever you see a Python invocation, it is `uv run ...` for exactly this reason: the environment is a property of the project directory, not of your shell's mutable state.
Two extra flags matter for this hardware. Some GPU packages publish CUDA-specific wheels on their own package indexes rather than only on PyPI, so a project may declare an extra index (for the CUDA-matched PyTorch build, for instance) in pyproject.toml under a [tool.uv] section. And uv can pin the Python version per project, which matters because vLLM and Unsloth may support different Python version windows; each project pins its own.
Lab
I create both projects, lock vLLM in serve/ and Unsloth in train/, and commit both pyproject.toml + uv.lock pairs. The artifact is those two pairs, printed in full. The exact resolved versions are recorded from the lock on the machine; the pyproject.toml contents below are realistic declarations, and the resulting uv.lock files (large, hash-bearing, machine-generated) are committed but not reprinted here in full.
Step 1 - repository layout
thesis-loop/
├── serve/ # vLLM serving environment
│ ├── pyproject.toml
│ ├── uv.lock # committed
│ └── .python-version
├── train/ # Unsloth training environment
│ ├── pyproject.toml
│ ├── uv.lock # committed
│ └── .python-version
└── README.md
Step 2 - create and lock the serve environment
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Create the serving environment: vLLM, locked.
set -euo pipefail
uv init serve
cd serve
# Pin a Python the serving stack supports (record the exact value on the machine).
uv python pin 3.12
# Add vLLM. uv resolves the full graph (torch, CUDA-linked libs, etc.) and writes uv.lock.
uv add vllm
# Add the light client bits used to poke the endpoint during bring-up.
uv add httpx
# Materialize the environment from the lock and smoke-test the import.
uv sync
uv run python -c "import vllm; print('vllm', vllm.__version__)"
[project]
name = "serve"
version = "0.1.0"
description = "vLLM serving environment for the evals-as-rewards loop"
requires-python = ">=3.12,<3.13"
dependencies = [
"vllm>=0.8", # Blackwell-capable serving engine; exact pin lands in uv.lock
"httpx>=0.27", # for poking the OpenAI-compatible endpoint during bring-up
]
[tool.uv]
# vLLM pulls a CUDA-matched torch build; if a dedicated index is needed for the
# Blackwell (sm_120) wheels, declare it here so resolution is reproducible.
# index-url / extra-index-url are recorded on the machine once the exact build is chosen.
3.12
The generated serve/uv.lock is a large machine-written file that pins every transitive dependency with an exact version and a content hash (vLLM, torch, the CUDA-linked libraries, and everything they pull). It is committed verbatim. Its exact contents, including the resolved vLLM and torch versions, are recorded from the lock on the machine; record the resolved versions, date, and driver alongside it.
Step 3 - create and lock the train environment
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Create the training environment: Unsloth (+ the GRPO/LoRA stack), locked.
set -euo pipefail
uv init train
cd train
# Pin a Python the training stack supports (record the exact value on the machine).
uv python pin 3.12
# Add Unsloth and the post-training constellation. uv resolves torch/transformers/TRL/peft/bnb.
uv add unsloth
uv add trl peft bitsandbytes datasets
# Materialize and smoke-test.
uv sync
uv run python -c "import unsloth, trl, peft; print('unsloth stack imported OK')"
[project]
name = "train"
version = "0.1.0"
description = "Unsloth training environment (GRPO/LoRA) for the evals-as-rewards loop"
requires-python = ">=3.12,<3.13"
dependencies = [
"unsloth>=2025.1", # 16GB-friendly training; exact pin lands in uv.lock
"trl>=0.12", # GRPO trainer lives here
"peft>=0.13", # LoRA/QLoRA adapters
"bitsandbytes>=0.44",# 4-bit quantization for QLoRA
"datasets>=3.0", # dataset loading
]
[tool.uv]
# Unsloth pins a CUDA-matched torch; if a dedicated index is needed for the
# Blackwell (sm_120) wheels, declare it here. Recorded on the machine.
3.12
As with serve/, the generated train/uv.lock pins the entire graph (Unsloth, torch, transformers, TRL, peft, bitsandbytes, datasets, and all transitive dependencies) with exact versions and hashes, and is committed verbatim. The resolved versions are recorded from the lock on the machine; record the resolved versions, date, and driver.
Step 4 - commit both pairs
cd thesis-loop
git add serve/pyproject.toml serve/uv.lock serve/.python-version
git add train/pyproject.toml train/uv.lock train/.python-version
git commit -m "Two locked uv projects: serve (vLLM) and train (Unsloth)"
# Record the resolved headline versions into the machine log for quick reference.
echo "serve: $(cd serve && uv run python -c 'import vllm; print(vllm.__version__)')" >> ~/machine-log/env-versions.txt
echo "train: $(cd train && uv run python -c 'import unsloth,trl,peft; print(\"unsloth+trl+peft OK\")')" >> ~/machine-log/env-versions.txt
What you should see. Two sibling directories, each with a pyproject.toml you wrote, a .python-version pinning the interpreter, and a uv.lock that uv generated and that you did not hand-edit. In serve/, uv run python -c "import vllm; print(vllm.__version__)" prints a version and exits cleanly. In train/, the Unsloth stack imports without error. Neither environment mentions the other's heavyweight packages: serve/uv.lock has no Unsloth, train/uv.lock has no vLLM, which is the whole point. The committed lockfiles are the artifact. From now on, any machine that runs uv sync in serve/ gets byte-identical serving dependencies, and the same for train/, so a reasoning-delta result can never be quietly undermined by a dependency that drifted between the serve step and the train step. The exact resolved versions live in the lockfiles and in ~/machine-log/env-versions.txt; record them with the date and driver in effect.
For the committee, the two committed uv.lock files are the second pillar of run provenance (the first was the driver/link capture in Chapter 0.3). Chapter 0.6 will hash these lockfiles and log the hash with every run, so that a figure in Part 9 can be traced not just to a git SHA of the code but to the exact resolved dependency graph of both the serving and training stacks. The two-environment doctrine is what makes that hash meaningful: because serve and train are locked independently, the provenance record can attribute a change to the serving stack or the training stack specifically, rather than to an undifferentiated blob of "the environment."
The counterintuitive, shareable claim is "keep your inference and your training in separate environments on purpose, even on one machine." Most people's instinct is to build one big env with everything in it, and then spend an afternoon fighting a resolver or debugging a CUDA kernel mismatch that turns out to be two libraries disagreeing about which PyTorch to pin. The clean frame: serving and training are two dependency universes that happen to share a GPU in time but should never share a Python interpreter, and the seam between them is an HTTP endpoint, not an import. Add the reproducibility punchline - a committed lockfile is the difference between "what I asked for" and "what I actually got" - and you have a practical post that will save readers a specific, memorable headache.
Storage tiers and cache discipline
Goal. Split working storage from archive storage on purpose, and make "which model" mean a revision hash rather than a name.
Covers. The NVMe working tier versus the NAS archive tier; HF_HOME and hf_transfer; a checkpoint retention policy; and what "reproducible" actually means for weights (pin revisions and commit hashes, not names).
Theory
Two tiers, two jobs
Storage on this machine has to do two jobs that pull in opposite directions, and the mistake is trying to make one device do both. The first job is fast working access: when I serve a model or resume a training run, the weights need to stream off disk quickly, and scratch files need to be written and deleted without ceremony. The second job is durable retention: the handful of things I actually want to keep (a final checkpoint, an acceptance report, a curated dataset) need to survive a cache purge, a reinstall, or a dead system drive. Fast working access wants the local NVMe. Durable retention wants somewhere I will not casually rm -rf. So I run two tiers.
The working tier is the 1 TB NVMe. It holds the Hugging Face cache, the currently active model weights, in-flight checkpoints, and scratch. Its defining property is that it is disposable: everything on it should be reconstructible from a revision hash plus a lockfile. If the NVMe died tomorrow I should lose time re-downloading, not lose results. That disposability is a discipline, not just a description: I never put the only copy of something I care about on the working tier.
The archive tier is the 5 TB NAS. It holds things whose loss would actually hurt: final checkpoints I have decided are worth keeping, acceptance reports, exported MLflow artifact stores, and curated datasets. It is reached over the network, so it is slower than local NVMe (the exact throughput is a machine-log entry; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver), and that is fine, because I touch it deliberately and rarely. The NAS is where a result goes to become permanent.
The 16 GB VRAM ceiling gets all the attention, but the 1 TB NVMe is also a budget, and it fills faster than you expect. A single 7B model in bf16 is ~14 GB on disk; keep a base model, a quantized copy, and a few checkpoints and you are into tens of gigabytes per experiment. The Hugging Face cache silently accumulates every revision you ever touched. Without a retention policy, the working tier fills, downloads start failing mid-stream, and you lose an afternoon to du -sh archaeology. The two-tier split is partly about durability and partly about keeping the fast disk lean enough to stay fast.
What "reproducible" means for weights
Here is the idea that changes how you think about models: a model name is not an identity. "Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct" names a moving target. The repository behind that name can be updated: a tokenizer fix, a re-uploaded shard, a config tweak. If my thesis says "I evaluated Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct" and someone downloads that name six months later, they may get subtly different weights and get different numbers, and neither of us will know why. The name is a pointer, and pointers move.
The fix is to pin the revision: every Hugging Face model repository is a git repository, so every state of it has a commit hash. When I say "the model," I mean a repository at a specific commit, e.g. Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct at revision <40-hex-commit>. That hash is immutable. Downloading that revision gives byte-identical files today, next year, and on someone else's machine. So the reproducibility rule for this book is: pin revisions, not names, everywhere a model or dataset is loaded, and record the pinned hash in the run log alongside the git SHA and the lock hash.
A Hugging Face repo is git-backed, so its contents are content-addressed: a commit hash is a cryptographic digest of the exact tree of files at that commit. Change one byte of one shard and the commit hash changes. A branch or tag name (which is what a bare model name resolves to, usually main) is just a movable label pointing at whichever commit is latest. So revision="main" (the implicit default) means "whatever is latest when I happened to download it," while revision="<hash>" means "this exact tree, forever." Reproducibility is the difference between those two, and it costs exactly one extra argument at load time.
The same discipline for datasets
Everything I just argued about model weights applies with equal force to datasets, and it is easy to forget because a dataset feels more static than a model. It is not. A Hugging Face dataset repository is git-backed exactly like a model repository, so "the GSM8K split I evaluated on" is only well-defined if I pin its revision too. A dataset owner can fix a label, add examples, or re-shuffle a split, and if my eval loaded the dataset by bare name it would silently pull the changed version on the next run, which would move my metric for a reason that has nothing to do with the model. So the pin-the-revision rule covers both nouns: every model load and every dataset load in this book carries an explicit revision=<hash>, and both hashes are recorded in the run log. The reasoning delta is "same model change, same eval data, measured twice," and "same eval data" is only true if the data is pinned as hard as the weights.
There is a subtler contamination angle here too, which Part 3 develops in full but which the storage layer enables. Pinning dataset revisions is also part of how I reason about test-set contamination: if I know the exact commit of the eval set I used, I can check whether that exact data could have leaked into a model's training corpus, and I can hold the eval data fixed while I vary the model. A dataset that drifts under its name makes contamination analysis impossible, because I can no longer say precisely which examples were in play. So pinning is not just reproducibility hygiene; it is a precondition for the contamination arguments the thesis will need to make.
The cache is a shared resource, so control where it lives
Hugging Face libraries default to caching under ~/.cache/huggingface, which on this machine would land on the system drive by default and mixes cached weights in with your home directory. I move the whole cache onto the working tier explicitly via HF_HOME, for three reasons. First, placement: the cache belongs on the fast disk I designated as the working tier, not wherever the default happens to fall. Second, visibility: one environment variable means both the serve and train environments share one cache, so I download a model once and both use it, and I always know where the big files are when the disk fills. Third, portability of the decision: HF_HOME is a single knob I set in a dotfile, so the storage layout is a documented choice rather than an accident of defaults.
hf_transfer is the other half of cache discipline. Model repos are large (tens of GB), and the default download path is not always the fastest. hf_transfer is a Rust-based accelerated download backend for the Hugging Face hub; enabling it (an env var plus the package) parallelizes and speeds up large downloads so the first pull of a model does not dominate my afternoon. The actual speedup is a machine-log entry; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver.
A retention policy, because checkpoints breed
Training produces checkpoints, and checkpoints breed faster than anything else on the working tier. A single training run might save the model state every few hundred steps, and each save of a 7B model is gigabytes. Left ungoverned, a week of experiments buries the NVMe under dozens of intermediate checkpoints, ninety percent of which I will never load again. So the storage policy needs a rule for what to keep, and the rule has to be simple enough that I actually follow it at 11pm when a run finishes.
My rule has three tiers of fate. Intermediate checkpoints live on the working tier only while their run is active, and exist so I can resume if the run crashes. When a run finishes, exactly two checkpoints earn keeping: the one that scored best on the held-out eval (the actual product of the run) and the final one (for continuing training later if I want). Everything else is deleted from the working tier the moment those two are safely copied to the NAS. This keeps the fast disk lean and pushes the small number of genuinely valuable artifacts onto durable storage, which is precisely the division of labor the two tiers exist for. The "best-by-eval" choice is deliberate: it ties the retention decision back to the loop's own measurement, so the checkpoint I keep is the one the evaluation actually preferred, not just the last one that happened to be written.
```admonish gotcha title="Never hand-rm a Hugging Face snapshot directory"
The Hugging Face cache stores each model as a tree of content-addressed blobs with per-revision snapshot directories full of symlinks into those blobs. If you rm -rf a snapshot directory to reclaim space, you can leave dangling references or orphan blobs that other revisions still point at, and in the worst case corrupt the cache so a later download half-fails in confusing ways. Reclaim space with huggingface-cli delete-cache (or scan-cache to see what is there first), which understands the blob-sharing and removes revisions safely. The working tier is disposable, but disposing of it wrong still costs you an afternoon.
## Tooling
The tools here are environment variables (`HF_HOME`, `HF_HUB_ENABLE_HF_TRANSFER`), the `huggingface_hub` download API with a pinned `revision`, a NAS mount managed via `/etc/fstab`, and a written retention policy that I actually follow.
**`HF_HOME`** relocates the entire Hugging Face cache (models, datasets, tokens) to a directory I choose on the working tier. **`HF_HUB_ENABLE_HF_TRANSFER=1`** plus the `hf_transfer` package switches on the accelerated download backend. Both are set once in a dotfile so every shell and every `uv run` inherits them.
**The NAS mount** is a network filesystem (NFS or SMB) mounted at a stable path like `/mnt/nas`, declared in `/etc/fstab` so it comes back after a reboot. I mount it read-write for the archive workflow but treat it as append-mostly: things go there to be kept, not churned.
**Pinned downloads** use `huggingface_hub`'s `snapshot_download` (or `hf_hub_download`) with an explicit `revision=<hash>`. That single argument is the whole reproducibility story for weights.
```admonish under-the-hood title="What HF_HOME actually moves"
`HF_HOME` sets the root under which the hub libraries put everything: the `hub` cache of downloaded repos (each stored as a content-addressed blob tree with symlinked snapshots per revision), the datasets cache, and the stored auth token. Because snapshots are symlinked into a per-revision directory pointing at deduplicated blobs, keeping several revisions of the same model costs only the bytes that differ between them, not a full copy each. This is also why you should delete revisions through the cache tooling rather than by hand: naive `rm` on a snapshot can orphan or break the shared blob store.
Lab
I set the env vars, mount the NAS, do a first pinned model download onto the working tier, and write the storage-policy doc. The artifacts are a storage-policy document plus the dotfile that encodes the layout.
Step 1 - the dotfile that encodes the layout
# Storage + cache discipline for the evals-as-rewards loop.
# Sourced from ~/.bashrc so every shell and every `uv run` inherits it.
# Working tier: the fast NVMe. All Hugging Face caches live here.
export HF_HOME="/data/hf" # NVMe working tier
export HF_HUB_ENABLE_HF_TRANSFER=1 # accelerated large-file downloads
# Archive tier: the NAS mount point (see /etc/fstab).
export NAS_ROOT="/mnt/nas"
export ARCHIVE_ROOT="${NAS_ROOT}/thesis-loop" # where kept things go
# Fail loudly if the working tier is missing, rather than silently
# scattering a 14 GB download into the wrong place.
[ -d "$HF_HOME" ] || echo "WARN: HF_HOME $HF_HOME does not exist yet" >&2
echo 'source ~/.config/thesis-loop/storage.env' >> ~/.bashrc
# /data is the NVMe working root. On a fresh machine it is owned by root, so I
# create it with sudo and then hand ownership to my user; otherwise the very
# first HF download fails writing into an unwritable /data.
sudo mkdir -p /data/hf # NVMe working tier
sudo chown -R "$USER:$USER" /data # own the whole working root
source ~/.config/thesis-loop/storage.env
Step 2 - mount the NAS archive tier
sudo apt install -y nfs-common # NFS client; without it the fstab NFS mount fails
sudo mkdir -p /mnt/nas
# Example NFS entry; adjust host/export/protocol to your NAS.
# Appended to /etc/fstab so the mount survives reboot.
echo 'nas.local:/volume1/thesis /mnt/nas nfs defaults,noatime,_netdev 0 0' | sudo tee -a /etc/fstab
sudo mount -a
mkdir -p /mnt/nas/thesis-loop/{checkpoints,reports,datasets,mlflow-exports}
df -h /mnt/nas # confirm it mounted and shows the NAS capacity
Step 3 - first pinned model download
This script downloads a model by revision onto the working tier, using hf_transfer, and records the exact hash it pinned. Run it from the serve/ project so it uses that locked environment:
"""Download a model by pinned revision onto the working tier (HF_HOME).
Reproducibility rule: pin the commit hash, not the name. Record what we pinned.
Run with: uv run python scripts/fetch_model.py
"""
import os
import json
import datetime
from huggingface_hub import snapshot_download, HfApi
REPO = "Qwen/Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct"
# Pin an explicit commit. Resolve the current main -> hash once, then hard-code it.
# Replace with the exact 40-hex commit you intend to freeze on.
REVISION = "REPLACE_WITH_40_HEX_COMMIT"
def resolve_latest(repo: str) -> str:
"""Helper: print the current main commit so you can copy it into REVISION."""
info = HfApi().repo_info(repo)
return info.sha
if __name__ == "__main__":
if REVISION.startswith("REPLACE"):
print("Current main commit for", REPO, "->", resolve_latest(REPO))
print("Copy that hash into REVISION and re-run to freeze the download.")
raise SystemExit(0)
path = snapshot_download(
repo_id=REPO,
revision=REVISION, # the whole reproducibility story
# lands under $HF_HOME/hub; hf_transfer accelerates it via the env var
)
record = {
"repo": REPO,
"revision": REVISION,
"local_path": path,
"hf_home": os.environ.get("HF_HOME"),
"fetched_at": datetime.datetime.now().astimezone().isoformat(),
}
print(json.dumps(record, indent=2))
# Append to a pins log so every frozen model is on the record.
with open(os.path.expanduser("~/machine-log/model-pins.jsonl"), "a") as f:
f.write(json.dumps(record) + "\n")
cd serve
uv add hf_transfer # accelerated backend, into the locked env
# First run prints the current main commit; paste it into REVISION, then:
uv run python scripts/fetch_model.py
Step 4 - the storage-policy document (artifact)
# Storage policy - evals-as-rewards loop
## Tiers
- **Working tier - 1 TB NVMe (`/data`, `HF_HOME=/data/hf`).**
Fast, disposable. Holds the HF cache, active weights, in-flight checkpoints,
scratch. Rule: nothing here is the only copy of anything I care about.
- **Archive tier - 5 TB NAS (`/mnt/nas/thesis-loop`).**
Durable, slow, append-mostly. Holds kept checkpoints, acceptance reports,
MLflow exports, curated datasets.
## Reproducibility rule for weights
- Always load models/datasets by **revision commit hash**, never by bare name.
- Every frozen model is appended to `~/machine-log/model-pins.jsonl`
(repo, revision, path, HF_HOME, timestamp).
## Checkpoint retention policy
- **In-flight checkpoints** live on the working tier during a run.
- **Keep** only: the best-by-eval checkpoint of a run, plus the final one.
- **Promote** kept checkpoints to `${ARCHIVE_ROOT}/checkpoints/<run-id>/` on the NAS.
- **Delete** all other intermediate checkpoints from the working tier once the
run's best/final are safely on the NAS.
- **Cache hygiene**: prune unused HF revisions with `huggingface-cli delete-cache`
(never hand-`rm` snapshot dirs - it can orphan the shared blob store).
## Env (see ~/.config/thesis-loop/storage.env)
- `HF_HOME=/data/hf`
- `HF_HUB_ENABLE_HF_TRANSFER=1`
- `NAS_ROOT=/mnt/nas`, `ARCHIVE_ROOT=/mnt/nas/thesis-loop`
What you should see. After sourcing the dotfile, echo $HF_HOME prints /data/hf and df -h /mnt/nas shows the NAS capacity, confirming both tiers exist. The first run of fetch_model.py prints the current main commit hash; once you paste that into REVISION and re-run, the model downloads into /data/hf/hub (visibly on the NVMe, not in your home directory), and a line lands in ~/machine-log/model-pins.jsonl recording exactly which commit you froze. The download speed and the on-disk size are machine-log entries; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver. The two artifacts, docs/storage-policy.md and ~/.config/thesis-loop/storage.env, are committed. From here on, "the model" in this book always means a repo at a pinned commit sitting on the working tier, and anything worth keeping has a defined path on the NAS.
The most common reproducibility failure in this whole book is loading a model with just its name and letting it resolve to main. It works today and quietly returns different weights months later when the repo owner re-uploads a shard, and your carefully measured reasoning delta becomes uncomparable to your earlier runs for a reason you cannot see. Grep your scripts for model loads that lack a revision= argument before you trust any number. On this stack the rule is absolute: no pinned revision, no run.
For the committee, the pinned-revision rule is what makes the thesis' central comparison legitimate. The reasoning delta is "same eval, before and after training." If the base model's weights can drift under its name between the before-run and a reviewer's replication, the comparison is not well-defined. Recording the commit hash in model-pins.jsonl, and logging it with every MLflow run (Chapter 0.6), pins the "before" model to an immutable object, so a reviewer downloading the same hash gets the same base model, and the delta they compute is the delta the thesis claims.
The reframe worth a post is "a model name is a pointer, and pointers move." People treat a Hugging Face model name like a permanent address, but it is git-backed, so the name usually resolves to whatever main is today, and main can change under you. The one-line fix - pass the commit hash - is the kind of small discipline that separates a result you can defend from an anecdote you happened to observe. Wrap it in the broader two-tier idea (fast disposable disk for work, slow durable disk for keeps) and you have a tidy piece on treating storage as a set of deliberate decisions instead of a pile of defaults.
Containers and the tracking spine
Goal. Stand up the tracking spine that every later chapter logs into, and fix the schema for what a run is.
Covers. Docker plus the nvidia-container-toolkit; an MLflow server on localhost; the run / experiment / artifact schema the whole book reuses; and the five things that get logged on every single run (git SHA, uv lock hash, driver version, VRAM peak, seeds).
Theory
Why a tracking spine at all
Without a tracking spine, an experiment-heavy project degenerates into a graveyard of terminal scrollback and half-remembered numbers. You run an eval, see 61.4%, tweak something, see 63.1%, and three weeks later you cannot answer the only question that matters: what exactly was different between those two runs? Which model revision, which code, which dependencies, which seed? A reasoning-delta thesis lives or dies on that question, because the entire claim is "this number moved because of this change, and nothing else." The tracking spine is the infrastructure that makes "nothing else" checkable rather than hopeful.
MLflow is the spine I use. It gives me three nouns that map cleanly onto how I actually work. An experiment is a named bucket for related runs (say, "grpo-gsm8k-qwen7b"). A run is a single execution with its parameters, metrics, and artifacts. An artifact is any file a run produces and wants to keep: a config, a plot, a checkpoint pointer, an eval transcript. Every number in Part 9's figures will be pulled from MLflow runs, so the discipline of logging into it from day one is what lets the book assemble itself from data instead of from memory.
MLflow separates two stores. The tracking store holds structured run metadata: parameters, metrics (time-series scalars), tags, and run/experiment relationships. The artifact store holds files. In this setup the tracking store is a backend database (SQLite for a single-user localhost server, upgradable to Postgres if it ever grows) and the artifact store is a directory on the working tier, periodically exported to the NAS archive tier. A run is identified by a run_id; metrics can be logged step-by-step (so a training curve is a real time series), and artifacts are content you can re-open later. Keeping the tracking DB and the artifact dir on the fast working tier keeps logging cheap; promoting the artifact store to the NAS is how a run becomes permanent.
Docker, and why the GPU needs a toolkit to enter a container
A couple of services in this book (MLflow here, and later some serving and burst workflows) are cleaner to run as containers than as host installs, because a container pins their entire environment and keeps them from polluting the host. Docker provides that. But there is a specific wrinkle for GPU work: a container is isolated from the host's devices by default, so a process inside it cannot see the NVIDIA GPU unless something bridges the driver across the isolation boundary. That something is the nvidia-container-toolkit. It hooks into the container runtime so that --gpus all (or a Compose deploy.resources reservation) injects the host's GPU devices and the matching driver libraries into the container, letting CUDA code inside the container talk to the real card.
The MLflow server itself does not need the GPU (it is a metadata and file service), so the very first container I stand up is a clean test of Docker and Compose without the GPU complication. But I install and verify the nvidia-container-toolkit in the same chapter, because later chapters will run GPU workloads in containers, and the canonical proof that the toolkit works is running nvidia-smi inside a CUDA container and seeing the same card the host sees.
```admonish gotcha title="--gpus all without the toolkit = 'could not select device driver'"
If you try to run a GPU container before installing and configuring the nvidia-container-toolkit, Docker fails with an error like could not select device driver "" with capabilities: [[gpu]]. Installing the toolkit is not enough on its own; you must also register it with the Docker runtime (nvidia-ctk runtime configure) and restart the Docker daemon so it knows about the NVIDIA runtime. The verification step - nvidia-smi inside a container - is the only proof that matters; a green apt install is not.
### The five things every run logs, no exceptions
Here is the heart of the chapter, and it is a policy, not a tool. Every run in this book, whether it is a serve benchmark, an eval, or a training step, logs the same five provenance fields, always, so that any number can be reconstructed. If a run cannot produce these five, it does not get to contribute a number to a figure.
1. **Git SHA of the code.** The exact commit of the loop repository that produced the run, including a dirty flag if the working tree had uncommitted changes. This answers "which code."
2. **uv lock hash.** A hash of the relevant `uv.lock` (serve's or train's, per Chapter 0.4), so the run is tied to the exact resolved dependency graph. This answers "which environment."
3. **Driver version.** The NVIDIA driver version from `nvidia-smi` (Chapter 0.3), so a run is tied to the exact GPU software substrate. This answers "which driver."
4. **VRAM peak.** The peak GPU memory the run reached, so I can see how close to the 16 GB ceiling it ran and catch a regression that would OOM. This answers "did it fit, and how tightly."
5. **Seeds.** Every RNG seed the run set (Python, NumPy, Torch, and any sampler seed), so stochastic results are reproducible. This answers "was it luck."
Together with the pinned model revision from Chapter 0.5, these five turn a run from an anecdote into a reproducible object. The git SHA and lock hash pin the software; the driver pins the substrate; the VRAM peak pins the resource envelope; the seeds pin the randomness. A reviewer with those six facts (five plus the model revision) can, in principle, reproduce the run exactly. That is the whole point of the spine.
```admonish derivation title="Why these five and not others"
Think of a run's output as a function of inputs: $\text{result} = f(\text{code}, \text{deps}, \text{driver}, \text{model}, \text{data}, \text{seed}, \text{hardware})$. Hardware is fixed by the baseline machine and the preflight (Chapters 0.2–0.3). Model and data are pinned by revision (Chapter 0.5). That leaves code, deps, driver, and seed as the free inputs a run must record to be reproducible - which is fields 1, 2, 3, and 5. The VRAM peak (field 4) is not an input but a witness: it is the cheapest early-warning that a change pushed the run's resource envelope, which on a 16 GB card is the difference between "runs" and "OOMs." So four fields pin the inputs, and one field guards the constraint.
Params, metrics, tags, artifacts: using the four slots correctly
MLflow gives a run four kinds of slot, and using them consistently is what makes the store queryable later instead of a junk drawer. Parameters are the inputs I set: the model revision, the learning rate, the batch size, the number of GRPO groups. They are logged once and never change during a run, and they are what I filter and group by in Part 9. Metrics are the outputs I measure, and they are time-series: a training loss logged every step, an eval accuracy logged at each checkpoint, the VRAM peak logged at the end. Because metrics carry a step index, a training curve is a real series I can plot, not a single final number. Tags are metadata about the run itself rather than its inputs or outputs, which is exactly where the five provenance fields live: git SHA, lock hash, driver, and seeds are tags, so they annotate the run without pretending to be experimental variables. Artifacts are files: configs, plots, eval transcripts, and pointers to the checkpoint on the NAS.
The discipline is to always put a thing in the same slot. A learning rate is always a param, never a tag; an eval score is always a metric, never a param; provenance is always a tag. When that convention holds across every run in the book, Part 9 can do things like "pull every run in experiment grpo-gsm8k-qwen7b that shares this git SHA and model revision, and plot their eval-accuracy metric against training step," and get a clean answer, because the fields it filters on are reliably in the slots it expects. A store where the learning rate is sometimes a param and sometimes buried in a run name is a store you cannot query, only browse.
MLflow lets you log almost anything as almost anything, which is a trap. If you log the learning rate as a metric (because it was handy) instead of a param, it will not show up where the query in Part 9 expects to group by it, and you will get a plot that silently drops runs or lumps them wrong. The failure is quiet: nothing errors, the numbers are just subtly incomplete. The fix is the convention above, enforced by putting all the slot decisions in one place (the start_run helper handles tags; each script logs its own params and metrics deliberately) rather than deciding ad hoc per script.
Tooling
The tools are Docker + Docker Compose, the nvidia-container-toolkit, the MLflow server, and a small Python helper that stamps the five provenance fields onto every run.
Docker Compose describes the MLflow service declaratively in a docker-compose.yml, so standing up the spine is one command and its configuration is version-controlled. The nvidia-container-toolkit is installed on the host and registered with Docker so later GPU containers work; I verify it here even though MLflow itself does not use the GPU. The MLflow server runs on localhost with a SQLite backend store and a filesystem artifact store on the working tier. The provenance helper is a tiny module every run imports, which reads the git SHA, hashes the lockfile, reads the driver version, tracks the VRAM peak, and logs the seeds, so the five-field policy is enforced by code rather than by my memory.
The MLflow server here binds to localhost and uses SQLite. That is not me being lazy about a 'real' deployment; it is the right size for a single-user, single-machine research loop. No auth to manage, no network surface to secure, no Postgres to babysit. If the run count ever outgrows SQLite, the Compose file swaps the backend store URI for a Postgres service and nothing else in the book changes, because everything talks to MLflow through its client API and a tracking URI, not through the database directly.
Lab
I install and verify the nvidia-container-toolkit, stand up MLflow via Docker Compose, write the provenance helper, and log a dummy run that carries all five fields. The artifacts are the docker-compose.yml and an MLflow-conventions document.
Step 1 - install and verify the nvidia-container-toolkit
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Install Docker Engine + NVIDIA container toolkit, then prove the GPU crosses
# the container boundary.
set -euo pipefail
# --- Docker Engine, from Docker's official apt repo ---
sudo apt update
sudo apt install -y ca-certificates curl gnupg
sudo install -m 0755 -d /etc/apt/keyrings
sudo curl -fsSL https://download.docker.com/linux/ubuntu/gpg -o /etc/apt/keyrings/docker.asc
sudo chmod a+r /etc/apt/keyrings/docker.asc
echo \
"deb [arch=$(dpkg --print-architecture) signed-by=/etc/apt/keyrings/docker.asc] \
https://download.docker.com/linux/ubuntu $(. /etc/os-release && echo "$VERSION_CODENAME") stable" \
| sudo tee /etc/apt/sources.list.d/docker.list > /dev/null
sudo apt update
sudo apt install -y docker-ce docker-ce-cli containerd.io \
docker-buildx-plugin docker-compose-plugin
# --- NVIDIA container toolkit, from NVIDIA's libnvidia-container apt repo ---
# Stock Ubuntu has no nvidia-container-toolkit package; add the repo first.
curl -fsSL https://nvidia.github.io/libnvidia-container/gpgkey \
| sudo gpg --dearmor -o /usr/share/keyrings/nvidia-container-toolkit-keyring.gpg
curl -fsSL https://nvidia.github.io/libnvidia-container/stable/deb/nvidia-container-toolkit.list \
| sed 's#deb https://#deb [signed-by=/usr/share/keyrings/nvidia-container-toolkit-keyring.gpg] https://#g' \
| sudo tee /etc/apt/sources.list.d/nvidia-container-toolkit.list > /dev/null
sudo apt update
sudo apt install -y nvidia-container-toolkit
# Register the toolkit with the Docker runtime, restart the daemon.
sudo nvidia-ctk runtime configure --runtime=docker
sudo systemctl restart docker
# The only proof that matters: run nvidia-smi INSIDE a container.
sudo docker run --rm --gpus all nvidia/cuda:12.6.0-base-ubuntu24.04 nvidia-smi
That final nvidia-smi inside the container should print the same RTX 5080 the host sees. If it errors with a device-driver message, the toolkit is not registered with the runtime; re-run the nvidia-ctk step and restart Docker.
Step 2 - the MLflow service
# MLflow tracking spine - localhost, single user.
# Tracking store: SQLite. Artifact store: a dir on the working tier.
services:
mlflow:
image: ghcr.io/mlflow/mlflow:latest
container_name: thesis-mlflow
command: >
mlflow server
--host 0.0.0.0
--port 5000
--backend-store-uri sqlite:////mlflow/store/mlflow.db
--artifacts-destination /mlflow/artifacts
ports:
- "127.0.0.1:5000:5000" # bind to localhost only
volumes:
- /data/mlflow/store:/mlflow/store # SQLite DB on the NVMe working tier
- /data/mlflow/artifacts:/mlflow/artifacts # artifacts on the NVMe working tier
restart: unless-stopped
sudo mkdir -p /data/mlflow/{store,artifacts} # on the NVMe working tier
sudo chown -R "$USER:$USER" /data/mlflow # own it so the container can write
cd tracking
docker compose up -d
# UI now at http://127.0.0.1:5000
curl -s http://127.0.0.1:5000/health && echo " <- MLflow healthy"
Step 3 - the provenance helper
"""Stamp the five mandatory provenance fields onto every MLflow run.
Every run in the book imports start_run() from here. No run contributes a
number to a figure unless it carries: git SHA, uv lock hash, driver version,
VRAM peak, and seeds.
"""
import os
import sys
import json
import hashlib
import random
import subprocess
import contextlib
import mlflow
MLFLOW_URI = "http://127.0.0.1:5000"
def _git_sha() -> str:
sha = subprocess.check_output(["git", "rev-parse", "HEAD"]).decode().strip()
# Dirty if there are unstaged OR staged-but-uncommitted changes.
dirty = (
subprocess.call(["git", "diff", "--quiet"]) != 0
or subprocess.call(["git", "diff", "--cached", "--quiet"]) != 0
)
return sha + ("-dirty" if dirty else "")
def _lock_hash(lock_path: str) -> str:
with open(lock_path, "rb") as f:
return hashlib.sha256(f.read()).hexdigest()[:16]
def _driver_version() -> str:
try:
out = subprocess.check_output(
["nvidia-smi", "--query-gpu=driver_version", "--format=csv,noheader"]
)
return out.decode().strip()
except Exception:
return "unknown"
def set_all_seeds(seed: int) -> dict:
random.seed(seed)
seeds = {"python": seed, "seed_arg": seed}
try:
import numpy as np
np.random.seed(seed)
seeds["numpy"] = seed
except ImportError:
pass
try:
import torch
torch.manual_seed(seed)
if torch.cuda.is_available():
torch.cuda.manual_seed_all(seed)
seeds["torch"] = seed
except ImportError:
pass
return seeds
@contextlib.contextmanager
def start_run(experiment: str, lock_path: str, seed: int, run_name: str | None = None):
"""Open an MLflow run pre-stamped with the five mandatory provenance fields."""
mlflow.set_tracking_uri(MLFLOW_URI)
mlflow.set_experiment(experiment)
seeds = set_all_seeds(seed)
with mlflow.start_run(run_name=run_name) as run:
# Fields 1,2,3,5 up front (VRAM peak, field 4, is logged at the end).
mlflow.set_tags({
"git_sha": _git_sha(), # 1
"uv_lock_hash": _lock_hash(lock_path), # 2
"driver_version": _driver_version(), # 3
"seeds": json.dumps(seeds), # 5
})
try:
yield run
finally:
# Field 4: VRAM peak, if torch/CUDA is present in this env.
try:
import torch
if torch.cuda.is_available():
peak = torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated() / (1024**3)
mlflow.log_metric("vram_peak_gb", round(peak, 3))
except Exception:
pass
Step 4 - log a dummy run
"""Log a dummy run to prove the spine and the five-field policy work end to end.
Run with: uv run python smoke_run.py
"""
import mlflow
from provenance import start_run
# lock_path points at whichever env's uv.lock this run belongs to.
LOCK = "../serve/uv.lock"
with start_run(experiment="smoke", lock_path=LOCK, seed=1234, run_name="hello-spine"):
mlflow.log_param("dummy_param", "hello")
for step in range(5):
mlflow.log_metric("dummy_metric", 0.5 + 0.1 * step, step=step)
with open("note.txt", "w") as f:
f.write("first artifact on the spine\n")
mlflow.log_artifact("note.txt")
print("Logged dummy run. Open http://127.0.0.1:5000 to see it.")
cd tracking
uv run --with mlflow python smoke_run.py
Step 5 - the conventions document (artifact)
# MLflow conventions - evals-as-rewards loop
## Server
- Localhost only: tracking URI http://127.0.0.1:5000 (see tracking/docker-compose.yml).
- Backend store: SQLite on /data/mlflow/store (NVMe working tier).
- Artifact store: /data/mlflow/artifacts (NVMe), exported to NAS to make permanent.
## Nouns
- **Experiment**: named bucket of related runs, e.g. `grpo-gsm8k-qwen7b`.
- **Run**: one execution; carries params, metrics (time-series), tags, artifacts.
- **Artifact**: any file a run keeps (config, plot, transcript, checkpoint pointer).
## The five mandatory fields (enforced by tracking/provenance.py)
Every run logs, no exceptions:
1. `git_sha` - code commit (+ `-dirty` if the tree was modified)
2. `uv_lock_hash` - sha256[:16] of the relevant uv.lock (serve or train)
3. `driver_version` - from nvidia-smi
4. `vram_peak_gb` - torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated at run end
5. `seeds` - JSON of every RNG seed set (python/numpy/torch/sampler)
Plus the pinned model **revision** (Chapter 0.5) logged as a param on any run
that loads a model.
## Naming
- Experiment names: `<method>-<task>-<model>`, lowercase, hyphenated.
- Run names: short and human, e.g. `baseline`, `grpo-step-200`, `ablation-no-kl`.
## Retention
- Artifact store lives on the working tier; export to
`${ARCHIVE_ROOT}/mlflow-exports/` on the NAS to make a run permanent.
What you should see. nvidia-smi inside the CUDA container prints the same RTX 5080 as the host, proving the toolkit bridges the GPU. curl http://127.0.0.1:5000/health returns healthy, and the MLflow UI loads in a browser. After the smoke run, the UI shows an experiment named smoke with one run named hello-spine, and that run carries four tags (git_sha, uv_lock_hash, driver_version, seeds), a vram_peak_gb metric (which will read near zero for this non-GPU dummy; real GPU runs will show a real peak, measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver), a five-point dummy_metric curve, and one artifact note.txt. The two artifacts, tracking/docker-compose.yml and docs/mlflow-conventions.md, are committed. From here on, every chapter that produces a number logs it through start_run, so the five fields are never optional and never forgotten.
For the committee, this chapter is where reproducibility stops being an aspiration and becomes a mechanism. The claim "the reasoning delta is real and attributable" reduces to: the before-run and after-run differ in exactly the intended variable and agree on all five provenance fields except where the change requires otherwise. Because provenance.py stamps those fields automatically, Part 9 can filter the MLflow store to runs that share a git SHA, lock hash, driver, and model revision, and legitimately compare their metrics. The spine is what lets the thesis assert control over confounds instead of merely hoping for it.
The post here writes itself around a single embarrassing question: 'what was different between the run that got 61% and the run that got 63%?' Most people cannot answer it, and that inability is the quiet reason so much ML tinkering never compounds into knowledge. The fix is unglamorous and total: log five things on every run - the code commit, the locked dependencies, the driver, the peak memory, and the seeds - and enforce it in code so you cannot forget. Frame it as the difference between doing experiments and merely having experiences, and you have a piece that lands with anyone who has ever lost a good result to their own scrollback.
Acceptance: proving the machine
Goal. Prove the machine is healthy with a scripted, repeatable acceptance suite before trusting any number it produces.
Covers. What a healthy card looks like at idle; memory-bandwidth and GEMM sanity tests; thermals under sustained load; and first tokens from PyTorch. The suite ends in an acceptance report archived to the NAS.
Theory
Why acceptance is a gate, not a vibe
Everything downstream in this book is a measurement, and a measurement is only as trustworthy as the instrument that produced it. The preflight in Chapter 0.2 proved the hardware was sound under the vendor's OS; the install in Chapter 0.3 proved the driver and link were correct. Acceptance is the third gate: it proves that the fully assembled Linux stack, driver plus CUDA plus PyTorch, produces sane, stable, in-spec numbers before I let it produce research numbers. It is deliberately a gate and not a feeling. Either the card hits a plausible fraction of its rated bandwidth, sustains a GEMM without errors, holds temperature under load, and emits correct tokens, or it does not, and if it does not, I fix the machine before I trust a single reasoning-delta figure.
The reason to script it, rather than eyeball nvidia-smi once and move on, is that acceptance is something I re-run. After a driver update, after a kernel bump, after moving the machine, after any "huh, that's slower than I remember" moment, I re-run the same suite and diff the report against the last known-good one. A scripted suite turns "the machine feels fine" into "the machine matches acceptance report v1 within tolerance," which is a claim I can actually check.
What a healthy card looks like at idle
Before any load, a healthy RTX 5080 at idle has a recognizable signature in nvidia-smi: low power draw, low temperature, near-zero memory used, near-zero utilization, and the correct static facts (16 GB total memory, the 570-branch driver, PCIe Gen5 x16). The idle numbers are a baseline, not a benchmark; their job is to catch gross problems like a card stuck at high power draw, a runaway process already holding VRAM, or a link that renegotiated down since install. All the specific idle values are machine-log entries; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver.
Bandwidth and GEMM: the two numbers that predict everything
Two microbenchmarks predict almost all of the performance behavior this book cares about, and they map onto the two regimes I will formalize with the roofline model in Part 2.
The first is memory bandwidth. The RTX 5080 has roughly 960 GB/s of memory bandwidth (per NVIDIA's RTX 5080 product specification). A bandwidth test streams large buffers through the memory system and reports the achieved rate. It will never hit the theoretical peak (no real workload does), but it should reach a healthy fraction of it. This matters because the token-generation phase of LLM inference is memory-bound: each token's latency is dominated by reading the model weights and KV cache out of VRAM, so achieved bandwidth is a direct predictor of decode throughput. If the bandwidth test comes back far below the rated figure, every tokens-per-second number later will be quietly disappointing, and I want to know that is a hardware/driver issue, not a vLLM configuration issue.
The second is GEMM throughput. A general matrix multiply (GEMM) is the compute primitive at the heart of every transformer layer, and a large GEMM in the card's native low precision (bf16/fp16, and on Blackwell the newer low-precision tensor-core paths) exercises the compute-bound regime: prompt prefill and training are dominated by these matmuls. A GEMM sanity test does two jobs at once. It checks correctness (the result matches a reference within floating-point tolerance, which catches a miscompiled kernel or unstable memory), and it estimates throughput in FLOP/s, which I compare against the card's rated compute to confirm the tensor cores are actually engaged and not silently falling back to a slow path.
A matmul of an by matrix does about floating-point operations and moves about bytes (at 2 bytes/element). Its arithmetic intensity is roughly FLOP/byte. When one dimension is tiny - decode processes one token at a time, so - the intensity collapses and the operation is bandwidth-bound: you spend all your time reading weights, not multiplying. When all dimensions are large - prefill and training process many tokens at once - the intensity is high and the operation is compute-bound: the tensor cores are the bottleneck. So the bandwidth test is a proxy for the decode regime and the GEMM test is a proxy for the prefill/training regime, which is exactly the roofline split Part 2 develops in full. Acceptance measures both ends so I know both regimes are healthy before I care which one dominates a given workload.
Thermals: sustained load is a different test than peak load
A card can pass a two-second GEMM and still fail in practice, because a two-second burst does not heat the silicon the way a twenty-minute training run does. Thermal acceptance is about sustained load: I run the GPU flat out long enough for temperatures to reach steady state, and I watch two things. Does the temperature plateau below the throttling threshold, and do the clocks hold, or do they sag as the card thermal-throttles to protect itself? A machine that throttles under sustained load will produce results that silently degrade the longer a run goes, which is poison for a training loop that runs for an hour. All temperatures, clocks, and throttle observations here are machine-log entries; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver.
First tokens: the whole stack, end to end
The final acceptance check is the most holistic: load a small model in PyTorch and generate a few tokens. This exercises the entire software stack, PyTorch, CUDA, the driver, the GPU, and the tokenizer, in the same shape the real workloads use, and confirms it produces coherent output. It is not a benchmark; it is a smoke test that says "the thing that will run the loop can, in fact, turn a prompt into tokens on this GPU." If bandwidth, GEMM, and thermals all pass but first-tokens fails, the problem is in the Python/CUDA stack, not the hardware, and I have narrowed it before I even start.
Tolerances, and what "healthy fraction" actually means
A gate needs a threshold, and a threshold needs a number, so it is worth being honest about where the acceptance tolerances come from. I do not have the card's internal design targets, so I anchor the tolerances to two things: the published spec (roughly 960 GB/s of memory bandwidth, and the card's rated low-precision compute from NVIDIA's RTX 5080 specification) and the first clean run of the suite itself, which becomes the reference. A microbenchmark never reaches theoretical peak, because the peak assumes perfect overlap and no overhead, so I expect the bandwidth test to land at some fraction of 960 GB/s and the GEMM test to land at some fraction of rated compute. The exact fractions I treat as healthy are recorded from the first good run; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver. The point of writing them down is that "healthy fraction" stops being a vibe and becomes a stored number I can diff against.
Once that reference exists, the tolerance is relative, not absolute, which is the more useful form. I do not actually care whether the bandwidth test hits a specific GB/s figure to three digits; I care whether a later run drops meaningfully below the reference the machine established when it was known-good. A ten-or-fifteen-percent drop from the reference bandwidth is a red flag worth chasing (a thermal issue, a link renegotiation, a driver regression), even if the absolute number still looks superficially fine. So acceptance v1 is not just a pass/fail certificate, it is the baseline against which every future acceptance run is a relative comparison. That is why the report records the actual measured numbers and not just checkmarks: the numbers are the reference the machine will be held to for the rest of its working life.
The rated 960 GB/s assumes the memory bus is saturated with a perfectly-scheduled access pattern and no other traffic. A real copy kernel pays for launch overhead, imperfect overlap of reads and writes, and the fact that you are timing a finite loop rather than an infinite steady state. So landing below the rated figure is expected and not a fault; a healthy card reaches a solid fraction of peak, not peak itself. The same logic applies to the GEMM: the rated TFLOP/s assumes the tensor cores never stall, which a real kernel with finite tiles and memory traffic cannot quite achieve. The signal that matters is not "did it hit the spec" but "did it hit the fraction of spec this card hit when it was healthy," which is exactly what acceptance v1 records.
Tooling
The suite is a bash driver that calls small, focused checks: nvidia-smi for idle and for load monitoring, a CUDA bandwidth measurement, a PyTorch GEMM correctness-and-throughput check, a sustained-load thermal watch, and a PyTorch generate check. Everything runs from the train/ uv environment (it has PyTorch), and the whole run logs into MLflow through the Chapter 0.6 provenance helper so the acceptance report itself carries the five mandatory fields. The report is written to disk and archived to the NAS.
It would be a little ironic to prove the machine with a suite that does not follow the book's own logging rules. So acceptance logs through provenance.start_run: the report is tagged with the git SHA, the train/uv.lock hash, the driver version, the VRAM peak the suite reached, and the seed. That means acceptance report v1 is not just a text file, it is an MLflow run I can diff future acceptance runs against, on exactly the provenance fields that would explain a regression.
Lab
The suite is one bash script that orchestrates a Python check module, prints a human-readable report, and archives it to the NAS. The artifact is acceptance report v1 on the NAS. Every measured value in the report is a placeholder to be filled on the machine.
The Python checks
"""GPU acceptance checks: GEMM correctness+throughput, bandwidth, first tokens.
Run individual checks via the CLI, e.g.: uv run python checks.py gemm
"""
import sys
import time
import json
import torch
def idle_summary() -> dict:
"""Static facts the report should confirm."""
p = torch.cuda.get_device_properties(0)
return {
"name": p.name,
"total_mem_gb": round(p.total_memory / (1024**3), 2),
"capability": f"{p.major}.{p.minor}", # Blackwell reports sm_120
"torch": torch.__version__,
"cuda": torch.version.cuda,
}
def gemm_check(n: int = 8192, iters: int = 50, dtype=torch.bfloat16) -> dict:
"""Large bf16 GEMM: correctness vs fp32 reference + throughput estimate."""
torch.manual_seed(0)
a = torch.randn(n, n, device="cuda", dtype=dtype)
b = torch.randn(n, n, device="cuda", dtype=dtype)
# Correctness on a small tile against an fp32 reference.
ref = (a[:512, :512].float() @ b[:512, :512].float())
got = (a[:512, :512] @ b[:512, :512]).float()
max_rel_err = ((got - ref).abs() / (ref.abs() + 1e-3)).max().item()
# Throughput: 2*n^3 FLOP per matmul.
torch.cuda.synchronize()
t0 = time.perf_counter()
for _ in range(iters):
c = a @ b
torch.cuda.synchronize()
dt = (time.perf_counter() - t0) / iters
tflops = (2 * n**3) / dt / 1e12
return {
"n": n, "dtype": str(dtype),
"max_rel_err": max_rel_err,
"sec_per_gemm": dt,
"tflops_est": round(tflops, 1), # compare to rated compute
"correct": max_rel_err < 5e-2,
}
def bandwidth_check(bytes_gb: float = 2.0, iters: int = 50) -> dict:
"""Streaming copy bandwidth: read+write a large buffer, report GB/s."""
n = int(bytes_gb * (1024**3) / 4) # fp32 elements
x = torch.randn(n, device="cuda")
y = torch.empty_like(x)
torch.cuda.synchronize()
t0 = time.perf_counter()
for _ in range(iters):
y.copy_(x) # reads n*4 bytes, writes n*4 bytes
torch.cuda.synchronize()
dt = (time.perf_counter() - t0) / iters
moved_bytes = 2 * n * 4 # read + write
gbps = moved_bytes / dt / 1e9 # decimal GB/s, same units as the rated figure
return {"gb_per_s_est": round(gbps, 1), "sec_per_iter": dt} # compare to ~960 GB/s rated
def first_tokens(model_id: str, revision: str, n_new: int = 20) -> dict:
"""Whole-stack smoke test: load a small model by pinned revision, generate."""
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(model_id, revision=revision)
model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(
model_id, revision=revision, dtype=torch.bfloat16, device_map="cuda"
)
prompt = "The capital of France is"
ids = tok(prompt, return_tensors="pt").to("cuda")
out = model.generate(**ids, max_new_tokens=n_new, do_sample=False)
text = tok.decode(out[0], skip_special_tokens=True)
return {"prompt": prompt, "completion": text, "generated_ok": len(text) > len(prompt)}
if __name__ == "__main__":
which = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "all"
result = {}
# Guard each check so one failure (e.g. first_tokens with a placeholder
# revision) records an error instead of aborting the whole report.
def guard(name, fn):
try:
result[name] = fn()
except Exception as e:
result[name] = {"error": repr(e)}
if which in ("idle", "all"):
guard("idle", idle_summary)
if which in ("gemm", "all"):
guard("gemm", gemm_check)
if which in ("bandwidth", "all"):
guard("bandwidth", bandwidth_check)
if which in ("first_tokens", "all"):
# Use a small model pinned by revision; replace the hash on the machine.
guard("first_tokens", lambda: first_tokens(
"Qwen/Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct", revision="REPLACE_WITH_40_HEX_COMMIT"
))
print(json.dumps(result, indent=2))
The thermal watch
"""Sustained-load thermal check: hammer the GPU, sample temp/clock/power, report.
Run: uv run python thermal_watch.py 300 # seconds of sustained load
"""
import sys
import time
import subprocess
import torch
def sample() -> dict:
q = "temperature.gpu,clocks.sm,power.draw,utilization.gpu"
out = subprocess.check_output(
["nvidia-smi", f"--query-gpu={q}", "--format=csv,noheader,nounits"]
).decode().strip()
t, clk, pw, util = [s.strip() for s in out.split(",")]
return {"temp_c": float(t), "sm_mhz": float(clk), "power_w": float(pw), "util_pct": float(util)}
def main(seconds: int):
n = 8192
a = torch.randn(n, n, device="cuda", dtype=torch.bfloat16)
b = torch.randn(n, n, device="cuda", dtype=torch.bfloat16)
samples = []
t_end = time.time() + seconds
while time.time() < t_end:
for _ in range(50):
c = a @ b # keep the tensor cores busy
torch.cuda.synchronize()
samples.append(sample())
time.sleep(1)
peak_t = max(s["temp_c"] for s in samples)
min_clk = min(s["sm_mhz"] for s in samples)
max_clk = max(s["sm_mhz"] for s in samples)
# Throttling shows up as clocks sagging from their early peak under sustained heat.
print({"peak_temp_c": peak_t, "clock_min_mhz": min_clk, "clock_max_mhz": max_clk,
"clock_sag_mhz": round(max_clk - min_clk, 1), "n_samples": len(samples)})
if __name__ == "__main__":
main(int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv) > 1 else 300)
The suite driver
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Scripted acceptance suite. Produces acceptance-report-vN and archives it to the NAS.
# Run from the train/ uv project (it has torch+transformers): bash run_acceptance.sh
set -euo pipefail
source ~/.config/thesis-loop/storage.env # HF_HOME, ARCHIVE_ROOT
STAMP="$(date --iso-8601=seconds)"
VER="${1:-1}"
REPORT="acceptance-report-v${VER}-$(date +%Y%m%d).md"
{
echo "# Acceptance report v${VER} - MSI Aegis R2 (A2NVV9-2218US)"
echo "generated: ${STAMP}"
echo
echo "## Idle / static facts"
echo '```'
nvidia-smi --query-gpu=name,memory.total,driver_version,pcie.link.gen.current,pcie.link.width.current,temperature.gpu,power.draw --format=csv
echo '```'
echo
echo "## GEMM, bandwidth, first-tokens (JSON)"
echo '```json'
uv run python checks.py all
echo '```'
echo
echo "## Thermals under sustained load (300 s)"
echo '```'
uv run python thermal_watch.py 300
echo '```'
echo
echo "## Pass/fail (fill in against tolerances)"
echo "- [ ] card named RTX 5080, 16 GB total, driver on 570 branch, link Gen5 x16"
echo "- [ ] GEMM correct (max_rel_err < 5e-2) and tflops_est within tolerance of rated"
echo "- [ ] bandwidth gb_per_s_est a healthy fraction of ~960 GB/s rated"
echo "- [ ] thermals: peak temp below throttle, clock_sag small (clocks held)"
echo "- [ ] first_tokens: generated_ok true, completion coherent"
} | tee "$REPORT"
# Archive to the NAS to make it permanent.
mkdir -p "${ARCHIVE_ROOT}/reports"
cp "$REPORT" "${ARCHIVE_ROOT}/reports/"
echo "Archived $REPORT to ${ARCHIVE_ROOT}/reports/"
Logging acceptance as an MLflow run
"""Wrap the suite as an MLflow run so acceptance carries the five provenance fields.
Run from the train/ project (which has torch); pull in mlflow for the logging:
uv run --with mlflow python log_acceptance.py acceptance-report-v1-YYYYMMDD.md
"""
import sys
import mlflow
sys.path.insert(0, "../tracking")
from provenance import start_run # noqa: E402
report_path = sys.argv[1]
# The suite runs from acceptance/, which has no lockfile of its own; point at the
# train/ env's lockfile (that is the env the checks actually run under).
with start_run(experiment="acceptance", lock_path="../train/uv.lock", seed=0, run_name="v1"):
mlflow.log_artifact(report_path) # the report becomes an MLflow artifact too
mlflow.set_tag("acceptance_version", "1")
print("Logged acceptance report to MLflow.")
What you should see. The suite prints a report in which: the idle line names the card as an RTX 5080 with 16 GB total, a 570-branch driver, and a Gen5 x16 link; the GEMM check reports correct: true with a small max_rel_err and a tflops_est in a plausible fraction of the card's rated compute; the bandwidth check reports a gb_per_s_est that is a healthy fraction of the roughly 960 GB/s rated figure; the thermal watch reports a peak_temp_c below the throttling threshold with a small clock_sag_mhz (meaning clocks held under sustained load); and first_tokens reports generated_ok: true with a coherent completion of "The capital of France is." Every one of those numbers is a placeholder until you run it; measured on the baseline machine; record value, date, driver. The report is saved locally, copied to ${ARCHIVE_ROOT}/reports/ on the NAS, and logged as an MLflow run carrying the five mandatory fields. That archived acceptance-report-v1 is the artifact and the machine's clean bill of health: from here on, when a later number looks wrong, the first move is to re-run the suite and diff against v1, and the whole rest of the book is allowed to trust the instrument.
The scariest acceptance failure is not a crash, it is a pass that is quietly wrong. If PyTorch or CUDA falls back to a non-tensor-core code path, the GEMM check will still be correct but its tflops_est will be a fraction of what the card can do, and nothing errors. Likewise a link that renegotiated to x8 halves bandwidth with no crash. This is exactly why acceptance records throughput estimates and compares them to rated figures, not just correctness: on this stack, 'it ran and the answer was right' is necessary but not sufficient. Always read the throughput numbers, not just the pass/fail of correctness.
For the committee, acceptance report v1 is the calibration certificate for the instrument that produces every subsequent measurement. It establishes, on a named date and driver, that the machine hits a known fraction of its rated bandwidth and compute, holds thermals under sustained load, and generates correctly. Re-running the suite after any environment change and diffing against v1 is what lets the thesis rule out 'the machine silently regressed' as an explanation for a shift in a reasoning-delta curve. Without this gate, a hardware or driver regression would be indistinguishable from a genuine training effect.
The idea worth a post is that the most dangerous failure in ML infrastructure is not the crash, it is the silent slow path: a GPU that runs, returns correct answers, and quietly delivers a third of its rated throughput because a kernel fell back or a PCIe link renegotiated down. Correctness tests will not catch it; only throughput tests compared against the spec will. Frame acceptance as calibrating an instrument before you trust its readings - you would not report measurements from a scale you had never checked against a known weight - and you have a piece that reframes 'it works' as the beginning of trust, not the end of it.
Tensors, autograd, and number formats
Everything downstream in this book is a program that moves numbers around a GPU and occasionally differentiates them. Before I can talk honestly about attention, memory budgets, or reward gradients, I need the three primitives those programs are built from: the tensor (how numbers are laid out in memory), autograd (how the machine computes derivatives without me deriving them by hand), and the number formats (how a real number gets squeezed into 32, 16, 8, or even 4 bits, and what precision I lose when it does). None of these is a black box once you look at it, and all three come back to bite you at 2am if you treat them as one. So this chapter opens Part I by making them concrete, with the two derivations that the rest of the book leans on: reverse-mode differentiation, and the representation error of floating point.
Theory
A tensor is typed memory plus a shape
The word "tensor" scares people off with its physics connotations, but in this stack a tensor is a boringly concrete thing: a flat, contiguous block of bytes in memory, plus a small amount of metadata that tells the library how to read those bytes as a multidimensional array. The metadata is what makes an array a tensor. It is a shape (how many elements along each axis), a stride (how many elements to skip in the flat buffer to move one step along each axis), a dtype (how to interpret each element's bytes as a number), and a device (which piece of hardware's memory the buffer lives in). That is essentially all of it.
Take a matrix of 32-bit floats. The library allocates elements times 4 bytes each, so 24 contiguous bytes. The shape is . The stride, in row-major (C) order, is : to move down a row I jump 3 elements in the buffer, to move across a column I jump 1. Indexing element is then pure arithmetic on the flat buffer,
and reading that element means grabbing 4 bytes at base + 4 * offset and interpreting them under the dtype. This is worth internalizing because it explains a pile of behavior that otherwise looks like magic. A transpose does not move any bytes; it just swaps the stride to and the shape to , which is why x.T is instant and free but leaves you with a non-contiguous tensor whose elements are no longer in reading order. A reshape that can be expressed as a stride change is free; one that cannot forces a copy. A slice is a new shape, a new stride, and an offset into the same buffer, which is why slices alias their parent and writing through one mutates the other. When a kernel later demands a contiguous input and you have handed it a transposed view, the .contiguous() call that fixes it is a full memory copy, and on a 16GB card those copies are exactly the kind of thing that quietly doubles your footprint. The stride model is not trivia; it is the difference between a view and a copy, and copies are where VRAM goes to die.
The dtype is the other half of the metadata, and it is the whole back third of this chapter, so hold that thought. The device matters because the RTX 5080's 16GB of VRAM is a separate address space from the 32GB of system DDR5, and moving a tensor across the PCIe bus is neither free nor implicit. x.to("cuda") is a real transfer. I will come back to this constantly.
Autograd is reverse-mode differentiation, and here is why it is cheap
Training is optimization, optimization needs gradients, and the gradients of a modern network with billions of parameters are not something anyone derives by hand. Autograd derives them for you, and the specific algorithm it uses (reverse-mode automatic differentiation, also called backpropagation) is not an approximation and not finite differences. It is the exact chain rule, evaluated in a specific order that makes it astonishingly cheap for the shape of function we care about. That shape is: many inputs (the parameters), one scalar output (the loss). Reverse mode is the right tool for exactly that shape, and it is worth deriving why.
Write a neural network as a composition of layers. Each layer is a function, and the whole network maps a parameter/input vector through intermediate activations to a final scalar loss:
The multivariate chain rule says the Jacobian of the composition is the product of the per-layer Jacobians. Let be the Jacobian of layer . Then the gradient of the scalar loss with respect to the input is a chain of matrix products,
The whole game is the order in which you multiply that product. Matrix multiplication is associative, so the answer is the same either way, but the cost is not. Because is a scalar, is a row vector (a object). If I multiply left-to-right,
then at every step I am multiplying a row vector by a matrix, which produces another row vector. I never form a full Jacobian; I only ever propagate a vector backward through each layer. Each such step is called a vector-Jacobian product (VJP), , and its cost is roughly the same as evaluating the layer forward. So the entire backward pass costs a small constant multiple of one forward pass, independent of how many parameters feed in. That is reverse mode, and equation (1.4) is the reason training a billion-parameter model is even possible.
Contrast forward mode, which multiplies right-to-left and propagates a column per input direction: it would cost one forward pass per parameter, which for a billion parameters is a billion forward passes. Reverse mode pays the opposite price: it must store every intermediate from the forward pass, because each VJP needs the activation to evaluate the local Jacobian at the right point. That stored-activation requirement is the entire reason training needs far more memory than inference, and I cash out the byte arithmetic of it in the memory chapter. For now, the one-line summary: reverse mode trades memory for the ability to get all gradients in one backward sweep.
Concretely, define the adjoint of each activation as , a vector the same shape as . Seed the recursion with (the derivative of the loss with respect to itself), and step backward:
Every framework's backward pass is equation (1.5) run once per node, with each layer supplying its own rule (its "backward function") rather than a literal Jacobian matrix.
The practical upshot for how PyTorch works: as your forward code runs, the library records each operation as a node in a directed acyclic graph, storing the inputs it will need to compute that node's VJP. Calling .backward() on the scalar loss walks that graph in reverse topological order, applying equation (1.5) at each node and accumulating adjoints into .grad on the leaf tensors (your parameters). The graph is built fresh each forward pass ("define-by-run"), which is why ordinary Python control flow just works. A tensor participates in this only if it has requires_grad=True; the activations recorded for the backward pass are held alive until you call .backward(), which is why torch.no_grad() at inference time is not a nicety but a large memory saving. It tells the engine to skip recording entirely.
Floating point, bit by bit
Now the dtypes, which is where the 16GB constraint really starts to shape decisions. A real number like has infinitely many digits; a fixed-width binary format has to round it to one of finitely many representable values. Every format in this stack is a specific answer to "how do I spend my bits between range and precision," and the answer determines both how much memory a model eats and how much numerical error it carries. The common scaffold is the IEEE-754-style layout: one sign bit, some exponent bits, and some mantissa (fraction) bits.
A normalized floating-point number with a -bit mantissa and an exponent bias encodes the value
where is the sign bit, the are the mantissa bits, and is the unsigned integer stored in the exponent field. The leading is implicit (the "hidden bit"), which buys one extra bit of precision for free. The exponent field selects a binade, the interval with ; within a binade the representable numbers are the evenly spaced values you get by walking the mantissa from to .
The spacing between consecutive representable numbers in the binade is therefore
one unit in the last place (1 ulp). Round-to-nearest maps any real in that binade to the closest grid point, so the absolute error is at most half a step, . Since everywhere in the binade, the relative error is bounded independent of the binade:
The quantity is the unit roundoff, and (the gap between and the next representable number above it) is machine epsilon. Equation (1.8) is the single most useful fact about floating point: relative error is roughly constant across the whole range, set entirely by the mantissa width . More mantissa bits, more precision, full stop. The exponent bits buy you range (how large and small can get before you overflow to infinity or underflow toward zero), not precision. This clean split (exponent = range, mantissa = precision) is the lens for reading every format below.
Below the smallest normal exponent, formats fall back to subnormals: the implicit leading bit becomes and the exponent sticks at its minimum, so the numbers fill in the gap between the smallest normal and zero, at the cost of losing relative precision as they shrink toward . Some low-bit formats drop subnormals to save encodings.
With equation (1.8) in hand, the formats read off cleanly. I will give each as (sign, exponent, mantissa), its machine epsilon , its dynamic range, and where it shows up.
FP32 (1, 8, 23), bias 127. Machine epsilon (about 7 decimal digits), max finite , smallest normal . This is the "full precision" reference. Master weights, optimizer state, and loss accumulation live here because you want the small numbers to survive being added to big ones. Four bytes per element.
TF32 (1, 8, 10), NVIDIA's tensor-core format. It keeps FP32's 8 exponent bits (so full FP32 range) but truncates the mantissa to 10 bits, giving precision. It is stored in a 32-bit slot but multiplied at reduced precision inside the tensor cores; it is a compute mode, not a storage format. Matmuls silently run in TF32 by default on recent hardware unless you ask for true FP32.
FP16 (1, 5, 10), bias 15. Machine epsilon , max finite , smallest normal . Ten mantissa bits is decent precision, but only five exponent bits means the range is narrow, and that narrowness is the classic FP16 training failure: gradients smaller than flush to zero (underflow) and activations above blow up to infinity (overflow). This is exactly why FP16 training needs loss scaling, multiplying the loss by a big constant to shove the gradients back up into representable range before they underflow, then dividing it back out.
BF16 (1, 8, 7), bias 127. This is the format that made mixed precision pleasant. It keeps FP32's full 8-bit exponent (identical range, , no overflow or underflow drama) and spends only 7 bits on the mantissa, giving coarse precision . The trade is deliberate: for training, range matters more than precision, because you can tolerate a noisy gradient but you cannot tolerate a gradient that became infinity. BF16 needs no loss scaling because nothing underflows the way it does in FP16. On the RTX 5080 (Blackwell), BF16 is the default working dtype for both my inference and my training labs.
FP8 comes in two flavors, both 8 bits, differing in how they split the remaining 7 bits after the sign. E4M3 (1, 4, 3), bias 7, favors precision: max value (it reclaims the would-be infinity encoding to extend range slightly, so it has no infinities, only NaN). E5M2 (1, 5, 2), bias 15, favors range: max , and it keeps IEEE-style inf/NaN. The rule of thumb the hardware vendors use: E4M3 for the forward pass (weights and activations, where you want precision) and E5M2 for gradients (where you want range). FP8 shows up in the fastest inference paths and in FP8 training on Hopper/Blackwell tensor cores; on 16GB it is mostly an inference-time trick.
INT8 and INT4 are not floating point at all. They are plain signed integers (range and ) paired with a floating-point scale and sometimes a zero-point , so the real value is reconstructed as where is the stored integer. Because the grid is uniform (evenly spaced by , unlike floating point's per-binade spacing), integer quantization is a great fit for weight distributions that are roughly bounded and bell-shaped, and it is the workhorse of weight-only quantization. The scale is chosen per-tensor or, better, per-channel/per-group so a few outlier weights do not stretch the grid and wreck everyone else's precision. INT4 weight quantization (with a group size like 128) is how a model that would need many gigabytes in BF16 fits in a couple; I spend a whole chapter on the theory in Part II.
MXFP4 is the microscaling format that makes 4-bit floating point actually usable, and it is worth understanding because gpt-oss ships in it. The element type is E2M1 (1 sign, 2 exponent, 1 mantissa), which by equation (1.6) can represent only the eight magnitudes and their negatives, a laughably coarse grid on its own. The trick is the "MX" part: elements are grouped into blocks of 32, and each block shares one 8-bit power-of-two scale (an E8M0 exponent, no mantissa). So the stored cost per element is 4 bits plus bits of shared scale, i.e. 4.25 bits, and the shared scale slides each block's tiny 3-bit grid up or down to wherever that block's numbers actually live. It is INT-style block scaling married to a float element type, and it is the reason a 4-bit model can hold a usable dynamic range. I will read a real MXFP4 checkpoint off disk in the model-zoo chapter.
The through-line: picking a dtype is picking a point on the range-precision-memory triangle that equation (1.8) governs, and on a 16GB card the memory axis is never negotiable, so the craft is in giving up precision (and sometimes range) exactly where the math can absorb it and nowhere else.
Tooling
The tool that embodies all of this is PyTorch, and specifically two of its subsystems: the tensor/storage model and the autograd engine. They are the reason I can write the labs in this book in a few dozen lines instead of a few thousand.
On the tensor side, PyTorch exposes exactly the metadata model from the theory. Every torch.Tensor is a view onto a Storage (the flat byte buffer) with its own .shape, .stride(), .dtype, .device, and a storage_offset(). You can see the view-versus-copy distinction directly: x.t() and x[::2] and x.view(...) return tensors sharing x's storage (check with x.data_ptr()), while x.contiguous() or x.clone() or an incompatible .reshape() allocate new storage. The dtypes are first-class objects (torch.float32, torch.bfloat16, torch.float16, torch.float8_e4m3fn, torch.float8_e5m2, torch.int8, and so on), each carrying an .itemsize in bytes, which is all you need to compute a tensor's footprint: numel() * element_size(). That formula is the atom of every VRAM budget in this book.
On the autograd side, PyTorch is a define-by-run reverse-mode engine, exactly the algorithm of equations (1.2)–(1.5). Operations on tensors with requires_grad=True are recorded into a graph of Function nodes; each node stashes whatever forward values its VJP needs (visible as .saved_tensors) and exposes a .grad_fn. Calling .backward() on a scalar seeds and runs the reverse sweep, accumulating into leaf .grad. torch.no_grad() disables recording (inference, and any bookkeeping you do not want differentiated); tensor.detach() cuts a subgraph loose; and mixed precision is handled by torch.autocast, which runs matmul-heavy ops in BF16/FP16 while keeping a master copy and the loss accumulation in FP32, i.e. it automates precisely the range-precision split I described. torch.cuda.amp.GradScaler is the loss-scaling machinery for the FP16 path.
The autograd graph holds your forward activations alive from the moment you run the forward pass until .backward() frees them. That is not incidental; it is the memory cost of reverse mode made physical (equation 1.5 needs those activations). Two consequences I rely on all the time: first, forgetting to wrap eval in torch.no_grad() can silently inflate inference memory by the entire activation graph; second, gradient checkpointing (Part I, memory chapter) is nothing more than a deal to not store some activations and recompute them during backward instead, trading compute for the exact bytes autograd would otherwise pin.
Lab
The goal of this lab is to make the byte-level footprint of a real model layer visible, so that when later chapters claim "the weights are bytes" you have already watched the arithmetic hold on your own machine. I will load a small open model, walk it parameter by parameter, and print each tensor's shape, dtype, element size, and total bytes, then reconcile the sum against what CUDA reports as allocated. I will also demonstrate the same weights re-cast to BF16 and FP16 so the memory halving is not a claim but a measurement.
This is a uv project. From the repo root:
uv init labs/tensors-dtypes
cd labs/tensors-dtypes
uv add torch transformers safetensors
"""Layer-by-layer dtype and memory inspector for a small model.
Writes a CSV artifact of every parameter's footprint and prints a summary
reconciled against torch.cuda.memory_allocated().
"""
import csv
from pathlib import Path
import torch
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM
MODEL = "Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B" # small enough to load anywhere; swap freely
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def human(nbytes: int) -> str:
for unit in ("B", "KiB", "MiB", "GiB"):
if nbytes < 1024 or unit == "GiB":
return f"{nbytes:8.2f} {unit}"
nbytes /= 1024
def inspect(model, dtype_label: str, writer) -> int:
total = 0
for name, p in model.named_parameters():
nbytes = p.numel() * p.element_size()
total += nbytes
writer.writerow({
"dtype_label": dtype_label,
"param": name,
"shape": "x".join(map(str, p.shape)),
"dtype": str(p.dtype),
"elem_bytes": p.element_size(),
"numel": p.numel(),
"bytes": nbytes,
})
return total
def main() -> None:
device = "cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu"
csv_path = OUT / "param_footprint.csv"
with csv_path.open("w", newline="") as f:
writer = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=[
"dtype_label", "param", "shape", "dtype",
"elem_bytes", "numel", "bytes",
])
writer.writeheader()
# Load once in fp32 on CPU so element_size() is unambiguous.
model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(MODEL, torch_dtype=torch.float32)
n_params = sum(p.numel() for p in model.parameters())
results = {}
for label, dtype in [("fp32", torch.float32),
("bf16", torch.bfloat16),
("fp16", torch.float16)]:
model_cast = model.to(dtype)
results[label] = inspect(model_cast, label, writer)
# Move the bf16 copy to the GPU and reconcile with CUDA's accounting.
allocated = None
if device == "cuda":
torch.cuda.reset_peak_memory_stats()
model_gpu = model.to(torch.bfloat16).to("cuda")
allocated = torch.cuda.memory_allocated()
print(torch.cuda.memory_summary(abbreviated=True))
print(f"\nModel: {MODEL}")
print(f"Total parameters: {n_params:,}")
for label, total in results.items():
implied = n_params * {"fp32": 4, "bf16": 2, "fp16": 2}[label]
print(f" {label}: summed {human(total)} "
f"(n_params x itemsize = {human(implied)})")
if allocated is not None:
print(f"CUDA allocated for bf16 weights on GPU: {human(allocated)}")
print(f"\nArtifact: {csv_path.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python inspect_dtypes.py
model.to(dtype) casts in place and returns the same object, so the three passes above share one model that I keep re-casting; that is fine for measuring footprint but means you should not keep all three copies live at once expecting three independent models. Also, torch.cuda.memory_allocated() will read slightly higher than the summed parameter bytes because CUDA's caching allocator rounds each allocation up to a block boundary and there is a fixed context overhead; the point of the reconciliation is that the numbers agree to within that allocator slack, not to the byte.
What you should see. The script writes artifacts/param_footprint.csv, one row per parameter per dtype, which you can open and sort to see exactly which tensors dominate (the embedding/lm_head and the MLP up/down/gate projections will be the fattest rows, foreshadowing the memory chapter). In the terminal you get a per-dtype total that matches n_params × itemsize to the byte: for a roughly 0.6B-parameter model the FP32 total lands near 2.2 GiB and the BF16 and FP16 totals near 1.1 GiB each, cleanly halved, because equation (1.8)'s bookkeeping is just numel × element_size (the human() helper divides by 1024, so these are GiB, not the 2.4/1.2 GB the same bytes make in decimal). The CUDA-allocated figure for the BF16 copy on the GPU reads a little above the 1.1 GiB summed figure (allocator rounding plus context), and memory_summary() shows that headroom. Record the exact allocated value with date and driver on your run (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver), because that gap between "the arithmetic says 1.1 GiB" and "CUDA says a bit more" is the first hint of the accounting the whole memory chapter is about.
This chapter's math backbone is [MADL] ch. 2–4: ch. 2 for tensors and linear-algebra-as-memory, ch. 3–4 for the calculus of differentiation that autograd mechanizes. Read equation (1.5) here alongside their treatment of the chain rule, and treat their gradient derivations as the by-hand version of what PyTorch's engine does for you.
"Your GPU doesn't run out of memory because the model is big. It runs out because reverse-mode autodiff has to remember everything it saw on the way forward." A post that starts from the associativity of matrix multiplication (equation 1.4), shows why the scalar-loss shape makes right-to-left the wrong order and left-to-right the cheap one, and lands on the punchline that the price of cheap gradients is stored activations, which is the same sentence, told backward, as "why training needs 8-16x the memory of inference." One derivation, two chapters' worth of intuition, and a title that makes an ML engineer feel seen.
Tokenization and embeddings
A language model does not read text. It reads integers. Everything between the string you typed and the first matrix multiply inside the network is the job of the tokenizer and the embedding matrix, and this stage is where a surprising amount of eval reproducibility quietly lives or dies. If you run the same prompt through two different chat templates you can get two different integer sequences, two different loss values, and two different eval scores, without touching a single weight. So this chapter treats the input surface as a first-class object: how byte-pair encoding turns text into tokens, what the vocabulary size actually trades off, why a chat template is itself a tokenization decision and not a cosmetic string wrapper, and how the embedding matrix (and weight tying) turns those integers into the vectors the transformer actually consumes.
Theory
Why not just use characters, or words
There are two obvious ways to turn text into integers, and both are bad. Character-level tokenization gives a tiny vocabulary (a few hundred symbols) but makes sequences brutally long, and a transformer's compute scales with the square of sequence length, so long sequences are expensive exactly where you cannot afford it. Word-level tokenization gives short sequences but a vocabulary that is effectively unbounded (every proper noun, typo, and hashtag is a new word) and helpless in front of anything it never saw at training time, the dreaded out-of-vocabulary token. The whole field settled on a middle path: subword tokenization, where common words stay whole, rare words fracture into pieces, and truly novel strings fall back to bytes so that nothing is ever out-of-vocabulary. Byte-pair encoding is the dominant recipe for building that subword vocabulary, and it is what Qwen3, gpt-oss, and essentially every model I touch in this book use.
Byte-pair encoding, derived from a greedy compression rule
BPE started life as a compression algorithm, and it is easiest to understand as one. You begin with the most granular possible alphabet (raw bytes, so 256 base symbols, which guarantees every possible input is representable) and you repeatedly find the most frequent adjacent pair of symbols in your training corpus and merge it into a new single symbol. Do that times and you have learned merges and a vocabulary of tokens.
Let the corpus, after the initial split into base symbols, be a sequence of tokens. For any ordered pair of adjacent symbols , let be its count across the whole corpus. One step of BPE training does exactly this:
and rewrite every adjacent occurrence of in the corpus as the single symbol . Repeat for merges. The learned artifact is an ordered list of merges plus the resulting vocabulary.
Why the greedy max-count rule? Merging the most frequent pair is the locally optimal move for shrinking the encoded length. If pair occurs times, replacing all its occurrences with one symbol removes tokens from the corpus. So the greedy step is exactly "delete as many tokens as possible this round," a coordinate-descent step on total sequence length. It is not globally optimal (the merge order interacts, and a merge that is best now can foreclose a better pair later), but it is cheap, deterministic, and empirically excellent, which is the usual reason a greedy algorithm wins.
Encoding a new string at inference time replays the merges in the order they were learned. Start from bytes, then for the learned merges in order, apply every merge wherever its pair currently appears, before moving to the next merge. That "in learned order" is not optional: apply merges in a different order and you can get a different tokenization of the same string, which would break the correspondence between the tokenizer and the weights that were trained against it. The rank of a merge in the list is its priority.
The consequence of equation (2.1)'s greedy, frequency-driven rule is that the resulting vocabulary is a mirror of the training corpus. Frequent English words become single tokens; a chemistry paper's jargon fractures into many pieces; a language underrepresented in the corpus tokenizes into far more tokens per sentence than English does, which is a real and measurable cost (more tokens means more compute and, in a fixed context window, less room). This is why "tokens per word" (the fertility of a tokenizer) differs across languages and domains, and why the same eval prompt can cost noticeably more tokens under one model's tokenizer than another's.
The vocabulary-size tradeoff, quantified
How big should the vocabulary be? This is a genuine tradeoff with costs on both sides, and it is worth making the two forces explicit rather than hand-waving "bigger is better up to a point."
Cost that falls with V (sequence length). A larger vocabulary means longer merges are available, so a fixed piece of text tokenizes into fewer tokens. Let be the expected token count of a document under a vocabulary of size ; empirically decreases with (with diminishing returns, roughly logarithmically once is in the tens of thousands). Since a transformer's self-attention cost per layer scales as and its feed-forward cost as , shorter sequences are cheaper quadratically in the attention term. Fewer tokens per document is a direct compute and context-window win.
Cost that rises with V (embedding and output). The model must carry an embedding matrix and (unless tied) an output matrix of the same size. Its parameter count and memory grow linearly in :
The output softmax over classes also costs per forward pass, and the loss's normalization sums over all logits. So a huge vocabulary bloats both the parameter budget (equation 2.2) and the final projection.
The two forces meet at a where the marginal token-length savings stop being worth the marginal embedding/softmax cost. Modern models land this at roughly to : Qwen3 uses about , and gpt-oss about . The move to six-figure vocabularies is largely about multilingual and code fertility (equation 2.1's frequency rule underserves anything rare, so you buy those tokens back with a bigger ) traded against the fact that on a 16GB card an embedding matrix of at, say, in BF16 is already GB of the budget just to hold the lookup table.
Chat templates are tokenization, not decoration
Here is the point most tutorials skip and that matters most for evals. A modern instruction-tuned model was trained on conversations that were serialized into a specific string format using special tokens that mark the boundaries between roles. These special tokens (things like a begin-of-turn marker, role labels for system/user/assistant, and an end-of-turn marker) are real entries in the vocabulary with their own integer IDs, and the model learned that "an assistant reply begins right after this exact token sequence." The chat template is the (usually Jinja) function that takes your list of role-tagged messages and produces exactly that serialized string, special tokens and all, before BPE ever runs.
This means the chat template is part of the tokenization, and getting it wrong is not a style error, it is feeding the model a distribution it was never trained on. Concretely, a bare prompt like Solve: 2+2 and the same content wrapped as <|im_start|>user\nSolve: 2+2<|im_end|>\n<|im_start|>assistant\n are different token sequences, and the model's next-token distribution after each is different, because only the second one puts the model in the state it was trained to answer from. Two families disagree on the marker strings, on whether a system message is injected by default, on whether a trailing "generation prompt" (the dangling assistant\n that cues the model to start replying) is appended, and on whether reasoning models wrap a hidden thinking segment in their own special tokens. Every one of those choices changes the integer sequence, and therefore the logits, and therefore any eval score computed from them. When I insist later that evals pin the chat template, this is why: it is as load-bearing as the sampler settings.
From integers to vectors: the embedding matrix
Once text is a sequence of token IDs with each , the model's first learned operation is to look up a dense vector for each ID. That is the embedding matrix : row is the -dimensional vector fed into the first transformer layer.
It is tempting to think of the lookup as "just indexing," and computationally it is, but it is worth seeing why it is a genuine linear layer, because that is what ties it to the output side. Represent token ID as a one-hot row vector (all zeros except a in position ). Then
is exactly row of : the one-hot vector selects a row. So embedding lookup is the linear map restricted to one-hot inputs, which is why frameworks implement it as a gather (indexing) rather than an actual -wide matrix multiply, the one-hot product is multiplications by zero. But treating it as a linear layer is what makes the gradient clean: during backprop, only the rows of that were actually looked up receive a gradient (the adjoint flows back through equation 2.3 into row and nowhere else), so the embedding's gradient is sparse in exactly the tokens that appeared in the batch. That sparsity is why the embedding table, despite being one of the largest single parameters, updates cheaply.
At the other end of the network, the model produces a hidden vector for each position and must turn it into a distribution over the possible next tokens. It does so with an output projection (the "unembedding" or lm_head) , computing logits , one score per vocabulary entry, which the softmax then normalizes (that is the whole next chapter and the objective chapter). Both and are tables that map between token-space and hidden-space, just in opposite directions.
Weight tying
Since maps tokens to vectors and maps vectors to token-logits, and both are , a natural question is whether they should be the same matrix (up to transpose). Weight tying sets , so the output logits are and the input lookup is . The argument for it is partly parametric (it removes a full matrix from the model, which for Qwen3-0.6B's is billion parameters saved, a big fraction of a small model) and partly semantic (a token's input representation and the direction you must point a hidden state to predict that token are plausibly the same geometry). Small models tie almost always, because the embedding is a huge fraction of their parameters and the savings are decisive; large models sometimes untie, because at scale the extra flexibility of a separate output matrix is affordable and slightly helpful. Qwen3's smaller variants tie; whether a given checkpoint ties is a flag in its config.json (tie_word_embeddings), which I will read directly in the model-zoo chapter. Knowing whether tying is on tells you immediately whether the embedding and the lm_head are one tensor or two on disk, which is a memory fact you can check.
Tooling
The tool here is the Hugging Face tokenizers / transformers stack, and specifically the AutoTokenizer interface plus the apply_chat_template method. A loaded tokenizer bundles four things that map straight onto the theory: the merge rules and vocabulary (equation 2.1's learned artifact, usually a fast Rust-backed BPE), the special-token registry (the IDs for the role and boundary markers), the chat template (a Jinja string stored in tokenizer_config.json), and the decode direction (turning IDs back into text). The fast tokenizers are the same tokenizers library exposed to Python, which is why they are quick enough to sit in an eval inner loop.
The two calls that matter for reproducibility are tokenizer(text), which runs plain BPE and returns input_ids, and tokenizer.apply_chat_template(messages, ...), which first renders your role-tagged message list through the model's Jinja template into the exact training-time string and then tokenizes it. The important arguments are add_generation_prompt (whether to append the dangling assistant cue so the model knows to start replying, which you want for generation and not for scoring a completed conversation) and, for reasoning models, enable_thinking or a template-specific flag that controls whether the hidden reasoning segment's special tokens are emitted. Because the template lives inside the checkpoint, using AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(model_id) is what guarantees you serialize conversations the way that specific model expects. Hand-rolling the string yourself is how you accidentally feed a Qwen model a Llama-shaped prompt and wonder why the eval regressed.
apply_chat_template with tokenize=False returns the rendered string before BPE, which is the single best debugging tool in this whole area: you can literally read the special tokens the model will see. Do this once for any new model and you will catch template mismatches (a missing generation prompt, a doubled begin-of-turn token, a system message you did not ask for) before they silently cost you eval points. The special tokens are added by the template as literal text and then recognized by the tokenizer as atomic IDs, so a mismatch shows up as either the wrong ID or, worse, the marker getting shattered into ordinary sub-tokens because it was not registered as special.
Lab
The goal is to make "chat templates are tokenization" undeniable by measuring it: I will take one fixed prompt, render and tokenize it under three different chat templates, and count exactly how the integer sequences differ. The artifact is a table on disk showing token counts and the specific special tokens each template injects, which is the evidence behind the reproducibility rule.
uv init labs/tokenization
cd labs/tokenization
uv add transformers torch
"""Tokenize one prompt under several chat templates and diff the results.
Artifact: artifacts/template_diff.json plus a printed comparison table.
"""
import json
from pathlib import Path
from transformers import AutoTokenizer
# Three instruction models with genuinely different chat templates.
MODELS = [
"Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B",
"meta-llama/Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct",
"microsoft/Phi-3-mini-4k-instruct",
]
MESSAGES = [
{"role": "system", "content": "You are a careful math tutor."},
{"role": "user", "content": "What is 17 * 24? Think step by step."},
]
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def analyze(model_id: str) -> dict:
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(model_id)
rendered = tok.apply_chat_template(
MESSAGES, tokenize=False, add_generation_prompt=True
)
ids = tok.apply_chat_template(
MESSAGES, tokenize=True, add_generation_prompt=True
)
special_ids = set(tok.all_special_ids)
specials_used = [
tok.convert_ids_to_tokens(i) for i in ids if i in special_ids
]
return {
"model": model_id,
"vocab_size": tok.vocab_size,
"n_tokens": len(ids),
"n_special": sum(1 for i in ids if i in special_ids),
"specials_used": specials_used,
"rendered_prefix": rendered[:200],
"first_20_ids": ids[:20],
}
def main() -> None:
results = [analyze(m) for m in MODELS]
(OUT / "template_diff.json").write_text(json.dumps(results, indent=2))
print(f"{'model':38} {'vocab':>8} {'tokens':>7} {'special':>8}")
print("-" * 65)
for r in results:
print(f"{r['model']:38} {r['vocab_size']:>8} "
f"{r['n_tokens']:>7} {r['n_special']:>8}")
print()
for r in results:
print(f"{r['model']}")
print(f" special tokens injected: {r['specials_used']}")
print(f" rendered head: {r['rendered_prefix']!r}\n")
counts = [r["n_tokens"] for r in results]
print(f"Token-count spread for the SAME prompt: "
f"min={min(counts)}, max={max(counts)}, "
f"delta={max(counts) - min(counts)} tokens")
print(f"Artifact: {(OUT / 'template_diff.json').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python compare_templates.py
Some of these checkpoints (Llama in particular) are gated on the Hub and need huggingface-cli login plus an accepted license before from_pretrained will fetch them; if a model 403s, swap in any open instruct model you already have (for example Qwen/Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct or HuggingFaceTB/SmolLM2-360M-Instruct), the lesson is in the difference between templates, not in these specific three. Also note tokenizer.vocab_size reports the base vocabulary and may exclude a handful of added special tokens, so len(tokenizer) can read slightly higher; that discrepancy is itself a small teaching moment about where special tokens live.
What you should see. The script writes artifacts/template_diff.json and prints a table where the same two-message prompt produces visibly different token counts across the three models, typically a spread of several tokens, driven entirely by how many special/boundary tokens each template injects and whether it prepends a default system frame. You will see genuinely different special-token strings in each row (Qwen's <|im_start|>/<|im_end|> family versus Llama's <|start_header_id|>/<|eot_id|> family versus Phi's <|system|>/<|end|> family), and the printed rendered head lets you read the exact serialized string each model expects. The closing line reports the token-count delta for identical content, which is the whole point: nothing about the meaning changed, yet the integer sequence the model sees did, and that is sufficient to move a loss or an eval number. Record the exact counts from your run (they depend on the checkpoint revisions you pulled) and keep the JSON as the receipt for why the eval config pins a tokenizer and template, not just a model name.
Pair this chapter with [BLLM] ch. 2, which builds a BPE tokenizer and an embedding layer from scratch. Raschka's from-scratch merge loop is the concrete code behind equation (2.1), and his embedding-layer section is equation (2.3) in PyTorch; read his byte-level BPE walkthrough right after this chapter's derivation and the greedy merge rule stops being abstract.
"You can change a model's eval score without touching a single weight, just change the wrapper around the prompt." A post that shows the same question tokenized three ways, counts the token difference, and explains that the special tokens marking 'the assistant starts here' are real vocabulary entries the model was trained to condition on. The hook is that a 'chat template' sounds like formatting and is actually part of the model's input distribution, so anyone benchmarking models who isn't pinning templates is comparing apples to differently-wrapped apples. Ends on the practical rule: log the rendered string, not just the message list.
Attention from first principles
Attention is the operation that lets a token look at other tokens and decide, per query, which ones matter. It is the reason transformers work, and it is the single most important thing to be able to derive rather than invoke, because every later chapter (the KV cache and its memory, GQA, the roofline of inference) is an argument about the cost of this specific computation. So I am going to build scaled dot-product attention from the ground up: what queries, keys, and values are, why the dot product is the right similarity, why we divide by and not by or nothing, how the softmax turns scores into weights (and what its Jacobian is, because that is what backprop needs), how causal masking makes it autoregressive, and how multi-head attention buys representational capacity for almost free. Then I will implement it in raw PyTorch and check it, number for number, against a real Hugging Face layer.
Theory
The problem attention solves
A token embedding on its own is context-free: the vector for "bank" is the same whether the sentence is about a river or a loan. To build a contextual representation, each token needs to pull in information from the other tokens that are relevant to it, and "relevant" has to be learned and content-dependent, not fixed by position. Attention is a differentiable, content-addressed lookup that does exactly this. Every token emits a query (what am I looking for?), every token exposes a key (what do I offer as a match?) and a value (what information do I carry?), and each token's output is a weighted average of everyone's values, where the weights come from how well its query matches each key. It is a soft, learnable dictionary lookup: instead of retrieving the one value whose key matches exactly, you retrieve a blend, weighted by match quality.
Queries, keys, values as learned projections
Start from the input to an attention layer: a sequence of token vectors stacked into a matrix , one row per position. Attention does not use directly; it first projects it into three separate spaces with three learned weight matrices:
with and , giving and . The point of three separate projections is that the same token plays three different roles: the query space is tuned for asking, the key space for being found, the value space for what actually gets copied. These are the only learned parameters in attention (plus an output projection I will add shortly); everything else is fixed arithmetic.
Scaled dot-product attention, derived
The similarity between query and key is their dot product , which is large and positive when the two vectors point the same way and near zero when they are orthogonal. Stacking all pairs gives the score matrix , entry being how much token 's query matches token 's key. We convert each query's row of scores into a probability distribution over the keys with a softmax, then use those probabilities to average the values. The whole operation is one line:
Equation (3.2) is the whole mechanism, and the row-stochastic matrix (each row sums to 1, all entries nonnegative) is the attention matrix: is the fraction of its output that token pulls from token 's value. The output is , each row a convex combination of value vectors. The only piece not yet justified is that in the denominator, and it is not cosmetic.
The scaling exists to keep the dot products from growing with dimension and shoving the softmax into a saturated corner. Model the query and key components, at initialization, as independent random variables with mean and variance (this is what standard initialization arranges, and it is the regime that matters because a saturated softmax at step 0 kills the gradient before training can start). Consider one score, the dot product of a query row and a key row:
Each term is a product of two independent mean-zero, unit-variance variables, so it has mean and variance . Because the terms are independent, their variances add:
So the raw scores have standard deviation : they grow with the square root of the head dimension. For a typical head dimension of , that is a spread of about before any training, and a softmax fed inputs that large is essentially a hard , one weight near , the rest near . That saturation is fatal at initialization, because (as the Jacobian below shows) a saturated softmax has vanishing gradient, so the layer cannot learn.
Dividing the scores by before the softmax rescales the variance back to :
That is the whole argument, and it pins the constant exactly. Dividing by (not its root) would over-shrink the scores to variance , flattening the softmax toward uniform and destroying the model's ability to be selective; dividing by nothing leaves the variance at and saturates. Only makes the score variance dimension-independent, which is precisely the condition under which the softmax starts life in its responsive, high-gradient regime regardless of how wide you make the head. The constant is a variance-normalization, and equation (3.4) is where the "square root" comes from.
The softmax and its Jacobian
The softmax turns a row of scores into a probability vector via
which is nonnegative and sums to by construction. To train through attention, backprop needs the derivative of these probabilities with respect to the scores, and the softmax Jacobian is clean and worth deriving once, because it explains both why saturated softmaxes kill gradients and how the attention weights get their gradient.
Differentiate in equation (3.6) with respect to an arbitrary input . Write , so . There are two cases.
Diagonal (). Using the quotient rule with :
Off-diagonal (). The numerator does not depend on , only does, and :
Combining both cases with the Kronecker delta gives the full Jacobian in one expression:
Two things fall out of equation (3.9) immediately. First, the vector-Jacobian product that backprop actually computes has a tidy form: for an upstream gradient , , an elementwise product with a mean-subtracted upstream, no matrix ever materialized, which is the VJP principle from the tensors chapter in action. Second, and this is the punchline connecting back to the argument: when the softmax is saturated (some , the rest ), every entry of is near zero, because both and vanish when the 's are near or . A saturated softmax has no gradient. That is exactly the failure mode equation (3.4) warned about, and exactly why we scale by to keep the softmax off its saturated shoulders at initialization.
Causal masking makes it autoregressive
For a language model, token must predict token using only tokens through ; letting it attend to future tokens would leak the answer. Attention enforces this with a causal mask applied to the scores before the softmax: set for all , so that after the softmax there. Since , the future tokens get exactly zero weight and drop out of every convex combination, while the surviving weights still renormalize to sum to over the allowed positions:
The mask is a fixed lower-triangular pattern, not learned. In practice frameworks add a large negative number (like the dtype's most-negative finite value) rather than literal to avoid NaNs, but the effect is the same: future is unreachable. This lower-triangular structure is why the KV cache works at inference (each new token only ever attends backward, so past keys and values can be stored and reused), which is the entire subject of the KV-cache chapter in Part II.
Multi-head attention
A single attention head produces one set of weights, one "way of looking." But a token often needs to attend to several things at once for different reasons: the subject it agrees with, the clause it modifies, the earlier mention it refers to. Multi-head attention runs independent attention operations in parallel, each with its own small projections, then concatenates and mixes the results. Split the model dimension into heads of size each, and for head :
then concatenate the outputs along the feature axis and apply a final output projection :
The elegance is in the bookkeeping: because each head is size , the total parameter count of the heads equals that of a single full-width attention, so multi-head attention buys different views at essentially the same parameter and compute cost as one wide head. It is capacity for almost free, which is why every model uses it. In implementation the per-head projections of equation (3.11) are fused into single matrices and then reshaped into heads, so on disk you see one big projection per role, not small ones. When I get to GQA in the next chapter, the whole trick will be to keep separate query heads but share keys and values across groups of them, purely to shrink the KV cache; everything about why that is even coherent comes from equations (3.11)–(3.12).
Tooling
The tool that embodies attention is, at the bottom, torch.nn.functional.scaled_dot_product_attention (SDPA), the fused primitive that PyTorch exposes and that Hugging Face models call under the hood. It implements exactly equation (3.2) with the causal mask of (3.10), but it does not build the matrix in memory when it can avoid it: on supported hardware it dispatches to a FlashAttention-style kernel that computes the softmax-weighted sum in tiles, streaming over the sequence and never materializing the full attention matrix. That matters enormously for the 16GB budget, because the naive scales quadratically with sequence length and is the first thing to blow up at long context; the fused kernel keeps attention's memory linear in even though its compute stays quadratic. I will unpack that roofline in Part II, but the tooling point for now is that SDPA is the single call that a hand-written attention and a production model both ultimately reduce to, which is why I can verify one against the other.
On the Hugging Face side, a model's attention module (for example Qwen3Attention) is a thin wrapper: it holds the fused q_proj, k_proj, v_proj, and o_proj linear layers of equations (3.1) and (3.12), reshapes into heads, applies rotary position embeddings (next chapter) to and , and then calls SDPA. Because the wrapper is thin, I can pull the exact projection weights out of a real layer, run the arithmetic myself with the same weights, and expect a numerical match to within floating-point tolerance. That is the whole design of the lab.
scaled_dot_product_attention picks a backend at runtime (a FlashAttention kernel, a memory-efficient kernel, or a plain math fallback) based on dtype, head dimension, mask type, and hardware. The fused backends fold the scaling, the causal mask, and the softmax into one pass, which means intermediate results (the pre-softmax scores) never exist as a tensor you could inspect, a reason that when I verify by hand I use the explicit math path, where every intermediate is visible, and only then trust the fused path to be the same function computed faster.
Lab
The goal is to implement scaled dot-product multi-head attention in raw PyTorch, straight from equations (3.1)–(3.12), and verify it numerically against a real Qwen3 attention layer by feeding both the same input and the same weights and checking the outputs agree to floating-point tolerance. The artifact is a saved report of the max absolute difference, which is the evidence that "attention" is exactly the arithmetic derived above and nothing hidden.
uv init labs/attention
cd labs/attention
uv add torch transformers
"""Raw-PyTorch scaled dot-product attention, verified against a HF layer.
Artifact: artifacts/attention_check.json with the max abs difference.
"""
import json
import math
from pathlib import Path
import torch
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM
MODEL = "Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B"
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def manual_attention(x, layer, cfg):
"""Reproduce one attention layer's output from raw ops (eqs 3.1-3.12).
x: (batch, seq, d_model). Uses the layer's own projection weights.
Note: we skip RoPE here and disable it on the reference too, so this
isolates the scaled-dot-product-attention math of this chapter. We do
apply Qwen3's per-head q_norm/k_norm, because the reference layer applies
them to Q and K before attention and the outputs will not match without it.
"""
b, s, _ = x.shape
n_q = cfg.num_attention_heads
n_kv = cfg.num_key_value_heads
d_head = cfg.head_dim if hasattr(cfg, "head_dim") else cfg.hidden_size // n_q
# Qwen3 applies a per-head RMSNorm (q_norm/k_norm) over head_dim to Q and K
# before attention; replicate it so the manual output matches the reference.
q = layer.q_norm(layer.q_proj(x).view(b, s, n_q, d_head)).transpose(1, 2) # (b, n_q, s, d)
k = layer.k_norm(layer.k_proj(x).view(b, s, n_kv, d_head)).transpose(1, 2) # (b, n_kv, s, d)
v = layer.v_proj(x).view(b, s, n_kv, d_head).transpose(1, 2)
# Expand KV heads to match query heads (GQA; trivial when n_kv == n_q).
rep = n_q // n_kv
k = k.repeat_interleave(rep, dim=1)
v = v.repeat_interleave(rep, dim=1)
scores = (q @ k.transpose(-2, -1)) / math.sqrt(d_head) # eq 3.2/3.5
causal = torch.triu(torch.full((s, s), float("-inf")), diagonal=1)
scores = scores + causal # eq 3.10
attn = torch.softmax(scores, dim=-1) # eq 3.6
out = attn @ v # eq 3.2
out = out.transpose(1, 2).contiguous().view(b, s, -1)
return layer.o_proj(out) # eq 3.12
def main() -> None:
torch.manual_seed(0)
model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(
MODEL, torch_dtype=torch.float32, attn_implementation="eager"
)
model.eval()
cfg = model.config
layer = model.model.layers[0].self_attn
b, s = 1, 12
x = torch.randn(b, s, cfg.hidden_size)
with torch.no_grad():
mine = manual_attention(x, layer, cfg)
# Reference: call the same layer but neutralize RoPE by passing
# position_embeddings of (ones cos, zeros sin) so no rotation happens,
# and pass the same causal mask the manual path applies so both are
# autoregressive (q_norm/k_norm live inside the layer already).
d_head = cfg.head_dim if hasattr(cfg, "head_dim") else cfg.hidden_size // cfg.num_attention_heads
cos = torch.ones(b, s, d_head)
sin = torch.zeros(b, s, d_head)
mask = torch.triu(torch.full((s, s), float("-inf")), diagonal=1)
ref = layer(x, position_embeddings=(cos, sin),
attention_mask=mask.view(1, 1, s, s))[0]
max_abs = (mine - ref).abs().max().item()
mean_abs = (mine - ref).abs().mean().item()
report = {
"model": MODEL,
"seq_len": s,
"max_abs_diff": max_abs,
"mean_abs_diff": mean_abs,
"match": max_abs < 1e-4,
}
(OUT / "attention_check.json").write_text(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
print(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
print(f"Artifact: {(OUT / 'attention_check.json').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python verify_attention.py
The fiddly part of verifying against a real model is neutralizing everything the chapter has not covered yet so the comparison isolates scaled-dot-product attention. Three traps. First, rotary position embeddings (RoPE, next chapter) are applied to Q and K inside the reference layer, so I feed a no-op cos/sin (cos=1, sin=0) to disable the rotation and match my RoPE-free manual pass. Second, Qwen3 applies a per-head RMSNorm (q_norm/k_norm) to Q and K before attention, so my manual pass has to run the layer's own q_norm/k_norm too, and both paths must apply the same causal mask (I hand the reference an additive lower-triangular mask so it is autoregressive exactly like my manual path, rather than leaving it unmasked). Third, I force attn_implementation="eager" so the reference runs the explicit math path rather than a fused SDPA kernel whose internal ordering can add a few extra ULPs. If the HF layer's forward signature differs by version (position-embedding handling has changed across transformers releases), read the layer's forward source and adapt how cos/sin get passed, the arithmetic you are checking does not change, only the plumbing.
What you should see. The script writes artifacts/attention_check.json reporting a max absolute difference between my hand-rolled attention and the real Qwen3 layer that is down at the floating-point-noise floor, on the order of to in FP32, with "match": true. That tiny residual is not error in the derivation; it is the accumulated rounding of doing the same real-valued arithmetic in a slightly different operation order (equation 1.8 from the tensors chapter, made visible). The takeaway is concrete and load-bearing for the rest of the book: a production attention layer is exactly equations (3.1) through (3.12), same weights, same softmax, same , and once you have watched your own code reproduce it to five decimal places, attention stops being a black box and becomes a thing you can reason about the cost of. Record your exact max-diff (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver), since it depends on dtype and the transformers version you pinned.
Read [BLLM] ch. 3 alongside this: it builds causal multi-head attention step by step in PyTorch and its from-scratch code is the long form of this lab's manual_attention. For the linear-algebra and probability underneath (the dot product as similarity, the softmax as a Gibbs distribution, the variance argument for ), [MADL] ch. 7–8 is the backing, especially their treatment of the softmax and its derivative, which is equation (3.9) written out at length.
"Why does attention divide by the square root of the head dimension? Not for vibes, for variance." A tight post that derives it: dot products of unit-variance vectors have variance equal to the dimension (equation 3.4), a softmax fed inputs of standard deviation eleven is a hard argmax, and a hard argmax has zero gradient (the softmax Jacobian, equation 3.9). Dividing by exactly the square root, not the dimension, not nothing, is the unique choice that makes the score variance one regardless of head width, keeping the softmax in the regime where it can still learn. It's a two-line variance calculation that explains a constant everyone copies without justifying, and it doubles as an intuition pump for why saturated softmaxes are where gradients go to die.
The transformer block
Attention lets a token gather information; it does not, on its own, make a network. The transformer block is the repeating unit that stacks around attention to make a working model: a normalization, the attention sublayer, a residual connection, another normalization, a feed-forward sublayer, another residual. A modern block (Qwen3, Llama, gpt-oss) differs from the 2017 original in four specific, deliberate ways, and this chapter derives all four because each is load-bearing for the memory and speed arguments later. The feed-forward became a gated MLP (SwiGLU). LayerNorm became RMSNorm. Absolute position embeddings became rotary (RoPE), which I derive as an actual rotation. And multi-head attention became grouped-query attention (GQA), whose entire justification is KV-cache pressure on cards exactly like the 16GB one. By the end I will assemble a block from these parts and match it, dimension for dimension, against a real Qwen3 config.
Theory
The residual stream is the backbone
Before the parts, the skeleton. A transformer block does not replace its input with the sublayer output; it adds the sublayer output to its input:
That "" is the residual connection, and reading equation (4.1) as an addition rather than a transformation is the single most useful frame for the whole architecture. The input flows down the stack essentially untouched (the "residual stream"), and each sublayer reads from it, computes something, and writes an increment back by addition. The stream is a running sum; a 36-layer model is 72 sublayers each adding their two cents. This matters for two reasons that recur all book. First, gradients: because the forward pass adds, the backward pass through has Jacobian , so the identity term guarantees a clean gradient path straight down the stream even when is small, this is why deep transformers train at all, and it is the residual restatement of the "identity term keeps gradients alive" idea from the autograd chapter. Second, the norm placement in equation (4.1) puts Norm inside the sublayer, before attention and before the MLP, never on the residual stream itself. This is pre-normalization, and it is what modern models use because it keeps the residual stream un-normalized and the training stable; the original transformer put the norm after the addition (post-norm) and was famously twitchy to train without warmup.
RMSNorm
Every sublayer's input gets normalized first, to keep activations at a controlled scale so the next matmul does not see wildly varying magnitudes. LayerNorm did this by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation across the feature dimension, then applying a learned scale and shift. RMSNorm drops the mean-centering and the shift entirely, keeping only the scaling by root-mean-square:
where is a learned per-feature gain and (around ) guards the square root. The denominator is the root-mean-square of the feature vector, hence the name. The justification for dropping the mean subtraction is partly empirical (it works as well) and partly efficiency: RMSNorm computes one reduction (a sum of squares) instead of two (mean, then variance), and skips the subtraction, which at the scale of every-token-every-layer is a real saving. There are no bias terms and no re-centering, so on disk an RMSNorm layer is a single -vector of gains, which you will see when I read a config. The important property for later: like all normalizations it is applied per-token across features, so it does not mix information between positions (that is attention's job) and it does not change the sequence length or the memory shape.
The gated MLP: SwiGLU
The feed-forward sublayer is where most of a transformer's parameters live, and its job is a per-token nonlinear transformation: take each token's -vector, blow it up to a wide intermediate dimension , apply a nonlinearity, and project back down. The classic version was two matrices with a ReLU or GELU between them, . Modern models use a gated variant, SwiGLU, which splits the up-projection into two parallel paths and uses one to gate the other.
SwiGLU uses three weight matrices instead of two. Two of them project up in parallel, a "gate" path and an "up" path, and their outputs are combined by an elementwise product, with the SiLU (a.k.a. swish) nonlinearity on the gate path only:
The intuition is the gate: produces, per intermediate unit, a soft multiplicative mask in roughly that scales the corresponding unit of . The network learns, per token, which intermediate features to let through and which to suppress, a data-dependent gating that a single static nonlinearity cannot express. This multiplicative interaction is why gated MLPs consistently beat plain ones at equal parameter count.
The parameter accounting has a wrinkle worth deriving, because it is the reason Qwen3's intermediate size looks like an odd number. A plain MLP has two matrices of size , so parameters. SwiGLU has three matrices (), so parameters at the same . To keep the parameter budget of the block roughly matched to a plain MLP, implementations shrink the intermediate width by a factor of :
That is why you see intermediate sizes near three times the hidden size rather than a clean power of two: it is equation (4.4) balancing the three-matrix cost back down to two-matrix territory. The factor is a guideline, not an exact formula, though: the strict -of- version would give for a hidden size of , whereas Qwen3-0.6B actually ships , exactly hidden, a nearby round width the implementers picked over the raw number. When I match the Qwen3 config in the lab, this ratio ( hidden) is one of the numbers I check.
RoPE: position as rotation
Attention as I derived it in the last chapter is permutation-equivariant: shuffle the input tokens and the outputs shuffle the same way, because nothing in knows position. A language model obviously needs to know order, so position information must be injected. Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) does this in the most elegant way anyone has found: instead of adding a position vector to the embedding, it rotates the query and key vectors by an angle proportional to their position, so that the dot product between a query at position and a key at position depends only on their relative offset .
Work in a single 2D subspace first (RoPE splits the head dimension into such planes). Take a query 2-vector at position and rotate it by angle using the standard 2D rotation matrix:
Do the same to the key at position : . Now compute the attention score, which is the dot product of the rotated query and rotated key:
Rotation matrices satisfy and , so . Substituting:
Equation (4.7) is the whole magic: the score depends on position only through the difference , never through the absolute positions and separately. RoPE gives relative-position awareness while implementing it as a per-position rotation you can apply independently to each query and key, with no learned parameters and no extra terms added to the residual stream.
To cover the full head dimension , RoPE uses planes, each with its own frequency chosen as a geometric progression (the same base- schedule as sinusoidal embeddings):
Low-index planes rotate fast (short wavelength, sensitive to nearby tokens), high-index planes rotate slowly (long wavelength, sensitive to far-apart tokens), so the model gets a spectrum of positional resolutions at once. In implementation you never build the blocks; you precompute and for every position and frequency , and apply equation (4.5) as an elementwise combination of with a rotated-by-90-degrees copy of itself: . Those cos and sin tables are exactly the position_embeddings I passed into the reference layer in the attention lab, feeding cos=1, sin=0 there was setting , i.e. no rotation, which is how I isolated the un-RoPE'd attention math. The base in equation (4.8) is the knob behind long-context extension: raising it stretches the wavelengths so the same rotations cover more positions before repeating, which is how models extend context length after pretraining.
GQA: sharing keys and values to shrink the KV cache
The last modern change is the one most tied to my 16GB constraint. At inference, an autoregressive model caches the keys and values of all past tokens so it does not recompute them for every new token (the KV cache, derived fully in Part II). The size of that cache is proportional to the number of key/value heads, and for long contexts it becomes the dominant memory cost, often larger than the weights. Grouped-query attention attacks this directly: keep all query heads (you want the representational capacity of many query views, from the multi-head argument in the last chapter), but let several query heads share one key head and one value head.
Let there be query heads and key/value heads, with dividing , so each key/value head is shared by a group of query heads. The three regimes are:
- Multi-head attention (MHA): , every query head has its own K and V ().
- Grouped-query attention (GQA): , groups of query heads share a K/V.
- Multi-query attention (MQA): , all query heads share a single K/V ().
The KV cache stores, per layer and per token, the keys and values for all key/value heads. Its size in bytes for a sequence of length , batch , head dimension , layers, and bytes per element is
where the leading is for storing both K and V. The only lever that involves the attention head structure is , so switching from MHA to GQA cuts the KV cache by exactly the factor
Qwen3-0.6B, for instance, uses query heads and key/value heads, so and its KV cache is exactly half what full multi-head attention would need, and larger Qwen3 variants push to or higher, quartering the cache. Equation (4.10) is why GQA exists: query capacity is cheap (queries are not cached), but key/value capacity is expensive (they are cached, per equation 4.9), so GQA spends where it is cheap and saves where it is dear. In the implementation, the shared K/V heads are simply repeated times to line up with the query heads before the attention dot product, which is exactly the repeat_interleave(rep, dim=1) I already wrote in the attention lab, where rep is . That line was GQA the whole time; this derivation is why it was there.
The through-line for these four changes: RMSNorm and SwiGLU are efficiency and capacity refinements to the sublayers, RoPE is a cleaner way to inject position that gives relative-position awareness for free, and GQA is a direct memory optimization aimed squarely at the KV cache. Three of the four are about doing more with less memory, which is the whole ethos of running this on one card.
Tooling
The tool is again Hugging Face transformers, this time the model config and the block module. A model's config.json (loaded as a PretrainedConfig) is the exact parameterization of everything above: hidden_size is , intermediate_size is (the -adjusted SwiGLU width from equation 4.4), num_attention_heads is , num_key_value_heads is (equation 4.10's GQA lever), head_dim is , num_hidden_layers is , rms_norm_eps is the of equation (4.2), rope_theta is the base of equation (4.8), and hidden_act names the SwiGLU nonlinearity (silu). The block module (Qwen3DecoderLayer) is equation (4.1) in code: an input RMSNorm, the self-attention with RoPE and GQA, a residual add, a post-attention RMSNorm, the SwiGLU MLP, and another residual add. Because the config is the parameterization, I can instantiate my own block from the same config and check that its parameter shapes and count match the real layer exactly, if my SwiGLU width, my head split, and my norm shapes all agree, I have almost certainly assembled the same block.
The config carries a subtlety that trips people up: head_dim is not always hidden_size / num_attention_heads. Qwen3 sets head_dim explicitly (for example ) even when hidden_size, decoupling the attention head geometry from the model width. That is why the q/k/v projections can be non-square (mapping hidden_size to num_heads * head_dim, a different number) and why my manual attention in the last chapter read head_dim from the config rather than dividing. Always trust the explicit head_dim field over the division; the division is only a default.
Lab
The goal is to assemble a transformer block from the four derived parts (RMSNorm, SwiGLU, RoPE, GQA attention) in raw PyTorch, parameterized entirely by a real Qwen3 config, and verify that its parameter shapes and total count match the reference Qwen3DecoderLayer dimension for dimension. The artifact is a JSON report of every submodule's shape alongside the reference, which proves the block I built is the block Qwen3 ships.
uv init labs/transformer-block
cd labs/transformer-block
uv add torch transformers
"""Assemble a transformer block from parts and match a Qwen3 config.
Artifact: artifacts/block_shapes.json comparing my block to the real layer.
"""
import json
from pathlib import Path
import torch
import torch.nn as nn
import torch.nn.functional as F
from transformers import AutoConfig, AutoModelForCausalLM
MODEL = "Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B"
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
class RMSNorm(nn.Module): # eq 4.2
def __init__(self, d, eps):
super().__init__()
self.g = nn.Parameter(torch.ones(d))
self.eps = eps
def forward(self, x):
rms = x.pow(2).mean(-1, keepdim=True).add(self.eps).rsqrt()
return x * rms * self.g
class SwiGLU(nn.Module): # eq 4.3
def __init__(self, d_model, d_ff):
super().__init__()
self.gate = nn.Linear(d_model, d_ff, bias=False)
self.up = nn.Linear(d_model, d_ff, bias=False)
self.down = nn.Linear(d_ff, d_model, bias=False)
def forward(self, x):
return self.down(F.silu(self.gate(x)) * self.up(x))
class GQAAttention(nn.Module): # eqs 3.x + 4.9/4.10
def __init__(self, cfg):
super().__init__()
self.h = cfg.num_attention_heads
self.h_kv = cfg.num_key_value_heads
self.d_head = cfg.head_dim
d = cfg.hidden_size
self.q_proj = nn.Linear(d, self.h * self.d_head, bias=False)
self.k_proj = nn.Linear(d, self.h_kv * self.d_head, bias=False)
self.v_proj = nn.Linear(d, self.h_kv * self.d_head, bias=False)
self.o_proj = nn.Linear(self.h * self.d_head, d, bias=False)
# (RoPE tables omitted for the shape-matching lab; see eq 4.5-4.8)
class Block(nn.Module): # eq 4.1
def __init__(self, cfg):
super().__init__()
self.input_norm = RMSNorm(cfg.hidden_size, cfg.rms_norm_eps)
self.attn = GQAAttention(cfg)
self.post_norm = RMSNorm(cfg.hidden_size, cfg.rms_norm_eps)
self.mlp = SwiGLU(cfg.hidden_size, cfg.intermediate_size)
def shape_map(module) -> dict:
return {n: list(p.shape) for n, p in module.named_parameters()}
def main() -> None:
cfg = AutoConfig.from_pretrained(MODEL)
mine = Block(cfg)
ref_model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(MODEL, torch_dtype=torch.float32)
ref_layer = ref_model.model.layers[0]
mine_params = sum(p.numel() for p in mine.parameters())
ref_params = sum(p.numel() for p in ref_layer.parameters())
report = {
"model": MODEL,
"config": {
"hidden_size": cfg.hidden_size,
"intermediate_size": cfg.intermediate_size,
"num_attention_heads": cfg.num_attention_heads,
"num_key_value_heads": cfg.num_key_value_heads,
"head_dim": cfg.head_dim,
"gqa_group_size": cfg.num_attention_heads // cfg.num_key_value_heads,
"ffn_ratio": round(cfg.intermediate_size / cfg.hidden_size, 3),
"rope_theta": cfg.rope_theta,
},
"my_block_params": mine_params,
"ref_layer_params": ref_params,
"my_shapes": shape_map(mine),
"ref_shapes": shape_map(ref_layer),
}
(OUT / "block_shapes.json").write_text(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
print(f"GQA group size g = {report['config']['gqa_group_size']} "
f"(KV cache is 1/{report['config']['gqa_group_size']} of MHA)")
print(f"FFN ratio d_ff/d_model = {report['config']['ffn_ratio']} "
f"(SwiGLU, ~3x hidden per eq 4.4)")
print(f"My block params: {mine_params:,}")
print(f"Ref layer params: {ref_params:,}")
print(f"Artifact: {(OUT / 'block_shapes.json').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python assemble_block.py
The parameter count of my block will land very close to the reference but need not match to the exact integer, because I omitted the RoPE inverse-frequency buffer and any tiny extras (some blocks carry per-head q/k norms, Qwen3 in fact adds an RMSNorm on the query and key, q_norm/k_norm, which the reference has and my minimal block does not). Those are small, and the report prints both counts so you can see the gap and attribute it. The lesson is in the shapes matching (the q/k/v/o projections, the three SwiGLU matrices, the two RMSNorm gains), not in a to-the-parameter total; if a shape is wrong, the block is wrong, and that is what the JSON is for.
What you should see. The script writes artifacts/block_shapes.json listing every parameter tensor of my hand-built block next to the real Qwen3 layer's. The projection shapes line up: q_proj maps hidden_size to num_attention_heads * head_dim while k_proj and v_proj map to the smaller num_key_value_heads * head_dim, and you can read the GQA asymmetry straight off those two shapes, the K/V projections are literally times narrower than Q, which is equation (4.10) made visible in the weights. The printed summary reports the GQA group size (2 for the 0.6B, meaning half-size KV cache), the FFN ratio near 3 (the -adjusted SwiGLU width of equation 4.4, not a clean power of two), and the two parameter totals within a fraction of a percent of each other, the small gap explained by the q/k norms and RoPE buffers I left out. Keep the JSON: it is the receipt that "a Qwen3 layer" is exactly RMSNorm + GQA-attention-with-RoPE + RMSNorm + SwiGLU wired residually, four derivations you can now point at.
Read [BLLM] ch. 4 for the from-scratch transformer block: Raschka builds the residual-plus-norm structure of equation (4.1) and the feed-forward in PyTorch, which is the long form of this lab. For the modern-model specifics, RoPE, RMSNorm, SwiGLU, GQA as Qwen3 actually implements them, [BRM] App. C walks the Qwen3 source line by line, and reading equations (4.5)–(4.10) here next to that appendix is the fastest way to connect the rotation math and the head-sharing arithmetic to the code that ships.
"Rotary position embeddings look like a hack until you write down the dot product." A post that derives RoPE in three lines: rotate the query at position m and the key at position n, take their dot product, and watch the absolute positions cancel because a rotation transposed times a rotation is a rotation by the difference (equation 4.7). The payoff line is that the model gets relative position awareness with zero learned parameters and nothing added to the residual stream, position becomes geometry. Pair it with the GQA punchline (query heads are free because you don't cache them; key/value heads are expensive because you do) and you've explained two of the four things that separate a 2017 transformer from a 2025 one, both as consequences of caring about memory.
The language-modeling objective
Everything up to here has been machinery: tensors, tokens, attention, the block. This chapter is the goal those parts are optimized toward. A language model is trained to do one thing, predict the next token, and the loss that measures how well it does that is cross-entropy, which is not an arbitrary choice but the unique consequence of maximum likelihood. Get this chapter right and a lot of later confusion dissolves, because the training loss, perplexity, the eval log-probabilities, and eventually the RL reward are all readings of the same next-token distribution. So I derive cross-entropy from maximum likelihood, derive perplexity as its exponential, nail down the off-by-one bookkeeping of label shifting, explain why loss curves have the shape they do, and then compute a loss and a perplexity by hand on a real paragraph and match the library to the decimal.
Theory
Next-token prediction as a probability model
A language model defines a probability distribution over sequences of tokens. By the chain rule of probability, any joint distribution over a sequence factors into a product of conditionals, each one the probability of the next token given all the previous:
This factorization is exact, not an approximation, and it is why autoregressive next-token prediction is a complete model of language and not a simplification: if you can model every conditional , you have modeled the whole joint. The transformer's job is to produce each of those conditionals, and it does: for each position , the network outputs a hidden vector, the unembedding turns it into a logit vector , and the softmax turns that into the distribution over the next token,
The causal mask from the attention chapter is what makes equation (5.2) honest: position 's logits depend only on , never on or later, so the model genuinely predicts rather than peeks. And because a single forward pass produces the logits at every position simultaneously (that is what the sequence dimension is), one forward pass over a length- sequence yields all conditionals at once, which is what makes training efficient.
Cross-entropy is maximum likelihood, derived
We have a model that assigns a probability to any sequence. Training means adjusting so the model assigns high probability to the real text in the training corpus. That principle is maximum likelihood, and cross-entropy loss is exactly what it becomes after a couple of monotone transformations.
Maximum likelihood says: choose to maximize the probability the model assigns to the observed data. For a single sequence, that is the joint of equation (5.1). Maximizing a product of many numbers in is numerically hopeless (the product underflows to zero), and maxima are unchanged by a monotone increasing transform, so take the logarithm, which turns the product into a sum:
Maximizing the log-likelihood is the same as minimizing its negative, so define the loss as the negative log-likelihood, and average over the positions to make it a per-token quantity that does not grow with sequence length:
Now expand one term using the softmax of equation (5.2). For position with true next token , the per-position loss is
This is exactly cross-entropy between the one-hot target distribution (all mass on the true token ) and the model's predicted distribution. To see the equivalence, cross-entropy between a target distribution and a prediction is ; with one-hot at , every term vanishes except , leaving , which is equation (5.5). So "cross-entropy loss" and "average negative log-likelihood of the true next token" are the same object, and equation (5.4) is what every LM trainer minimizes.
The gradient is clean and worth seeing because it is why this loss trains well. Differentiating equation (5.5) with respect to the logits gives
the predicted probability minus the target, a bounded, well-behaved gradient that is exactly zero only when the model puts all its mass on the true token, and largest when it is confidently wrong. This "prediction minus target" form is the same clean signal the softmax-plus-cross-entropy pairing always produces, and it is no accident that the two are computed together in one fused kernel.
The second form of equation (5.5), , is worth pausing on because that second term, the log-sum-exp, is the log of the softmax denominator, i.e. the log-partition-function. It is what couples the true token's logit to all the others: to lower the loss you can either raise the true token's logit or lower everyone else's, and the log-sum-exp is what makes those two moves trade off. It is also the term that must be computed in a numerically stable way (subtract the max logit first), which is a detail the library handles and a hand computation must respect.
Perplexity
The loss in equation (5.4) is in nats (natural-log units), which is fine for optimization but unintuitive as a report. Perplexity is the standard human-facing metric, and it is just the loss exponentiated back out of log-space.
Perplexity is defined as the exponential of the average per-token negative log-likelihood:
Undoing the log and the average recovers the geometric mean of the per-token probabilities, inverted:
Equation (5.8) is the interpretation that makes perplexity worth reporting: it is the reciprocal geometric-mean probability the model assigned to the true tokens, which reads as an effective branching factor, the model is, on average, as uncertain as if it were choosing uniformly among equally likely tokens at each step. A perplexity of 1 is a perfect model (it assigned probability 1 to every true token); a perplexity of (the vocabulary size) is a model no better than uniform guessing; real models land somewhere in between, and lower is better. Because is monotone, minimizing loss and minimizing perplexity are the same optimization, but perplexity is the number you quote. One caution the definition makes obvious: perplexity depends on the tokenizer, because (the token count) and the per-token probabilities both change with the vocabulary, so perplexities are only comparable across models that share a tokenizer, a point that connects straight back to the tokenization chapter.
Label shifting: the off-by-one that everyone hits
There is a bookkeeping subtlety that trips up every from-scratch implementation, and it follows directly from equation (5.2): the logits at position predict the token at position , not the token at position . So to build the (prediction, target) pairs for the loss, you shift. Given an input sequence of token IDs input_ids of length , the model produces logits of shape , and the correct pairing is:
In practice this means the logits are sliced to drop the last position (it predicts a token beyond the sequence, which has no label) and the labels are sliced to drop the first token (nothing predicts it), so you compute the loss over pairs: logits[:-1] against labels[1:]. Getting this shift wrong by one position is the single most common silent bug in a custom training loop; it does not crash, it just trains the model to predict the current token from itself, which produces a suspiciously low loss that collapses to nonsense. The Hugging Face models do this shift internally when you pass labels, which is convenient but hides the mechanism, so the lab does it by hand to make equation (5.9) unavoidable. Padding tokens and, in instruction tuning, the prompt tokens are masked out of the loss by setting their label to a sentinel (-100) that the loss function skips, which is how you train only on the completion and not on the question.
Why loss curves look the way they do
A training loss curve for a language model has a characteristic shape, and every part of it is explainable from the objective. It starts high, near : an untrained model with random weights outputs roughly uniform logits, so by equation (5.5) the initial per-token loss is about , which for a vocabulary of is nats. That is a number you can predict before training starts and check on step 0, and it is a great sanity test: if your fresh model's loss is not near , something (usually the label shift or the tokenizer) is wrong. The curve then drops fast at first, because the easiest wins are cheap: learning unigram frequencies (some tokens are just common) and basic local structure knocks the loss down quickly. Then it flattens into a long slow decline, because the remaining loss is the genuinely hard, long-range, semantic prediction that improves slowly, and because equation (5.6)'s gradient shrinks as predictions get better. The curve is often plotted on a log-x axis precisely because progress is roughly linear in log-steps over the long tail. Sharp spikes usually mean a bad batch or a learning rate too high (an optimizer step that overshot); a loss that plateaus far above 's implied floor for the data means underfitting or a bug. Reading these curves fluently is a skill the whole training half of the book leans on, and it all comes back to equation (5.4).
Tooling
The tool is torch.nn.functional.cross_entropy (and its object form nn.CrossEntropyLoss), which fuses three things the derivation kept separate: the softmax of equation (5.2), the log, and the negative-log-likelihood gather of equation (5.5), all in one numerically stable kernel. It expects raw logits, not probabilities, precisely so it can apply the stable log-sum-exp (subtracting the max logit) internally rather than taking the log of an already-softmaxed number that may have underflowed. It gathers the true-token logit via an integer label tensor (no one-hot ever built, the same gather-versus-one-hot efficiency from the embeddings chapter), supports the -100 ignore index for masking, and returns the mean over unmasked positions by default, which is exactly equation (5.4). On the Hugging Face side, passing labels=input_ids to a causal LM's forward makes it do the label shift of equation (5.9) internally and return .loss; understanding that this convenience is just the shifted cross-entropy is the difference between trusting the number and being able to reproduce it, which is the point of the lab.
cross_entropy reports its loss in nats (natural log), so exponentiating it directly gives perplexity per equation (5.7). If you ever see loss reported in bits, that is log base 2, and the two differ by a factor of ; perplexity from bits is rather than . Mixing the two is a common way to compute a perplexity that is off by an exponential factor, so always know which log your loss is in. PyTorch is nats; equation (5.7) assumes nats.
Lab
The goal is to compute a language-modeling loss and perplexity fully by hand from raw logits, honoring the label shift of equation (5.9) explicitly, and match the library's fused cross_entropy and the model's own .loss to many decimal places. The artifact is a JSON report showing the hand-computed and library values side by side, which proves the loss is exactly the shifted negative log-likelihood of the derivation and nothing more.
uv init labs/lm-objective
cd labs/lm-objective
uv add torch transformers
"""Compute LM loss and perplexity by hand, matched against the library.
Artifact: artifacts/loss_check.json with hand vs library values.
"""
import json
import math
from pathlib import Path
import torch
import torch.nn.functional as F
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer
MODEL = "Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B"
PARAGRAPH = (
"The mitochondrion is the powerhouse of the cell. It generates most of "
"the cell's supply of adenosine triphosphate, used as chemical energy."
)
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def main() -> None:
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(MODEL)
model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(MODEL, torch_dtype=torch.float32)
model.eval()
ids = tok(PARAGRAPH, return_tensors="pt").input_ids # (1, T)
T = ids.shape[1]
with torch.no_grad():
logits = model(ids).logits # (1, T, V)
# --- By hand: shift (eq 5.9), then per-position NLL (eq 5.5), then mean. ---
shift_logits = logits[0, :-1, :] # positions 1..T-1 predict next token
shift_labels = ids[0, 1:] # tokens 2..T are the targets
log_probs = F.log_softmax(shift_logits, dim=-1) # eq 5.2 in log-space
true_logp = log_probs[torch.arange(T - 1), shift_labels] # gather eq 5.5
per_token_nll = -true_logp
hand_loss = per_token_nll.mean().item() # eq 5.4
hand_ppl = math.exp(hand_loss) # eq 5.7
# --- Library: fused cross_entropy on the same shifted tensors. ---
lib_loss = F.cross_entropy(shift_logits, shift_labels).item()
# --- Library convenience: model computes the shift + loss itself. ---
with torch.no_grad():
model_loss = model(ids, labels=ids).loss.item()
report = {
"model": MODEL,
"num_tokens": T,
"num_predicted_positions": T - 1,
"hand_loss_nats": hand_loss,
"library_cross_entropy": lib_loss,
"model_dot_loss": model_loss,
"hand_perplexity": hand_ppl,
"log_V_floor": math.log(model.config.vocab_size),
"max_abs_diff_hand_vs_lib": abs(hand_loss - lib_loss),
}
(OUT / "loss_check.json").write_text(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
print(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
print(f"\nA random model would start near log(V) = "
f"{report['log_V_floor']:.3f} nats; this trained model is far below.")
print(f"Artifact: {(OUT / 'loss_check.json').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python loss_by_hand.py
The one place a hand computation drifts from the library is numerical: computing log(softmax(logits)) as two separate steps can differ in the last few digits from log_softmax, which fuses them with the stable log-sum-exp. The lab uses F.log_softmax on purpose so my "by hand" version and the library's cross_entropy share the same stable path and agree to ~1e-6; if you instead wrote torch.log(torch.softmax(...)) you would still match to about five decimals but see a slightly larger residual, which is itself the log-sum-exp stability lesson from the derivation. Also, the model(ids, labels=ids).loss value matches only because HF applies exactly the equation (5.9) shift internally, if it disagreed, that would mean a shift convention mismatch, which is precisely the bug this lab is designed to expose.
What you should see. The script writes artifacts/loss_check.json where three independently computed numbers agree: my by-hand loss, the library's cross_entropy on the same shifted tensors, and the model's own .loss from passing labels, all matching to roughly six decimal places (max_abs_diff around ). The hand-computed perplexity is the exponential of that loss per equation (5.7). And the report prints the floor (about 11.9 nats for Qwen3's vocabulary) next to the actual loss, which sits far below it, exactly as a trained model should, that gap between "random-init loss " and "trained loss" is the whole of language modeling compressed into two numbers. Keep the JSON as the receipt that the training loss is nothing but the shifted negative log-likelihood of equation (5.4), computed by hand and confirmed. Record your exact loss and perplexity values from the run, since they depend on the checkpoint revision.
Pair this with [BLLM] ch. 5, which implements the training loop, the cross-entropy loss, and perplexity from scratch and plots the loss curve on real text. Raschka's manual loss code is the long form of this lab's loss_by_hand, and his discussion of what the loss and perplexity numbers mean lines up directly with equations (5.4)–(5.8); read his training-loop section right after this derivation and the label shift of equation (5.9) will be muscle memory.
"Cross-entropy loss isn't a design choice, it's the only thing maximum likelihood can become." A post that derives the LM loss in one sitting: the chain rule of probability turns a sequence into a product of next-token conditionals, maximum likelihood says make that product big, taking the log turns it into a sum you can actually optimize, and negating it gives you cross-entropy, with the softmax's log-sum-exp term as the thing that couples the right answer to all the wrong ones. Then the kicker: a fresh random model's loss is predictable in advance at log(vocab-size), about 11.9 for a modern tokenizer, so if your training run doesn't start there, you have a bug, not a model. It's a derivation that doubles as a debugging checklist.
Where memory goes: training vs inference
This is the chapter the whole book's constraint hangs on. Sixteen gigabytes is a hard wall, and the difference between a lab that runs and a lab that dies with CUDA out of memory is almost always a memory-accounting mistake, not a compute one. So I am going to account for every byte, in both regimes. Inference memory is short: weights plus the KV cache, and that is essentially it. Training memory is the interesting one, because reverse-mode autograd (from chapter 1) forces you to store activations, and the AdamW optimizer keeps two extra full-size copies of every parameter, so training a model can cost eight to sixteen times what running it costs. I will derive the backprop-through-a-linear-layer rule that makes the activation-storage requirement concrete, write down the memory-accounting formulas, and then do the byte arithmetic for a 4B model in both modes on the RTX 5080, which is exactly the calculation that tells you what you can and cannot fine-tune on this card.
Theory
Inference memory: weights plus KV cache
At inference, with torch.no_grad() on, autograd records nothing, so there are no stored activations to speak of beyond the single layer being computed. The memory is two things. First, the weights, which is just parameter count times bytes-per-element: a model with parameters in a dtype of bytes needs bytes resident. Second, the KV cache, the stored keys and values for every past token so the model does not recompute them each step, whose size I derived in the transformer-block chapter (equation 4.9):
The activations at inference are negligible because you only ever hold one layer's worth at a time (the residual stream is a single tensor passing through), and the CUDA context and kernels are a fixed few hundred megabytes. So inference is dominated by weights, with the KV cache growing linearly in sequence length and becoming the swing factor at long context. This is why the whole of Part II is about serving: on a fixed card, weights are fixed but the KV cache is where you win or lose, and GQA (equation 4.10) was the first lever for it.
Training memory: why it explodes
Training adds three new consumers, and together they are why training costs multiples of inference. The first is gradients: every trainable parameter needs a same-shaped gradient tensor, another elements. The second is optimizer state, and for AdamW this is the killer. The third is stored activations, forced by reverse-mode autograd. Take them in order, starting with the one that requires a derivation.
Consider the workhorse operation, a linear layer , with input , weight , output . Suppose the backward pass has handed us the adjoint of the output, (the VJP flowing in, from chapter 1's equation 1.5). We need the gradients with respect to both (to update it) and (to keep propagating backward).
For the weight gradient, differentiate the scalar loss with respect to a single entry . Since , the entry influences the loss through every output across positions :
That sum over is exactly a matrix product of and , so in matrix form:
Read equation (6.3) carefully, because the whole training-memory story is hiding in it. To compute the weight gradient , the backward pass needs the input that was fed in during the forward pass. That input is a stored activation. Every linear layer in the network must keep its forward input alive from the forward pass until its backward pass, because equation (6.3) cannot be evaluated without it. This is the concrete, per-layer version of chapter 1's abstract claim that reverse mode trades memory for cheap gradients: the "memory" is literally the in , one stored activation tensor per layer, and there are dozens of layers. Inference never pays this because no_grad means no backward pass will ever ask for , so is freed the instant the next layer consumes it.
Now the accounting. Consider a full fine-tune with mixed-precision AdamW, the standard recipe. Per parameter, the framework holds: an FP32 master copy of the weight (4 bytes, kept in full precision so tiny updates are not lost to BF16's coarse mantissa, per chapter 1's equation 1.8), a BF16 working copy used in the forward and backward passes (2 bytes), a gradient (2 bytes in BF16, sometimes 4), and AdamW's two optimizer moments, the first moment and the second moment , each an FP32 same-shaped tensor (4 bytes each). That is the famous accounting:
AdamW is "2 extra copies" in the sense that and are each a full parameter-sized FP32 tensor on top of the weights and gradient; those two moments alone are 8 of the 16 bytes. So the fixed, activation-independent cost of full-fine-tuning a -parameter model is bytes, versus bytes to merely run it in BF16. That factor of eight, before activations, is most of the "8-16x more" this chapter opened with. On top of it sit the stored activations from equation (6.3), whose size scales with batch size, sequence length, and depth:
where is the per-token, per-layer activation footprint (a handful of -sized and -sized tensors that must survive to backward). The activation term is the one you can actually control at run time, which is where the next idea comes in.
Gradient checkpointing
Equation (6.5)'s activation term grows with depth and can dominate for long sequences or large batches, and it is the one term you can trade against compute. Gradient checkpointing (activation checkpointing) is the deal: during the forward pass, do not store the intermediate activations for every layer; store only a sparse set of "checkpoints" (say, one per layer boundary or every layers). Then during the backward pass, when equation (6.3) needs the input to a layer that was not stored, recompute it by re-running the forward pass from the nearest checkpoint. You pay one extra forward pass worth of compute (roughly a 30 percent wall-clock hit) in exchange for cutting the stored-activation memory from down to or less. It is the purest expression of the memory-versus-compute tradeoff that reverse-mode autograd sets up: autograd wants to store everything (chapter 1), checkpointing declines to, and recomputes on demand. On a 16GB card it is frequently the difference between a batch size of 1 and a usable batch size, and every training lab in this book turns it on.
The bigger structural escape, which I only flag here and derive in the post-training part, is to not update most of the parameters at all. LoRA and its quantized cousin QLoRA freeze the base weights (so they need no gradient, no master copy, and no Adam moments, collapsing the term to for the frozen base plus for the small adapter) and keep the frozen base in 4-bit (halving even that ). That is how a model whose full fine-tune needs many times the card's capacity still trains on it, and equation (6.4) is exactly the cost structure LoRA is dodging.
Take a concrete 4-billion-parameter model () with a Qwen3-4B-like shape: layers, key/value heads, , working dtype BF16 ( bytes). I use decimal GB ( bytes) for the arithmetic and note GiB where the 16GB card's actual byte capacity matters.
Inference (equation 6.1).
- Weights: GB.
- KV cache at batch , context : GB.
- CUDA context + kernels: GB (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver).
- Total: GB. Fits in 16 GB with headroom; you could push context to k tokens (KV grows to GB) before it tightens. This is why 4B-class inference is comfortable on this card.
Full fine-tune with mixed-precision AdamW (equations 6.4–6.5).
- Weights + grads + Adam : GB.
- That single line is already 64 GB, roughly four times the card's entire 16 GB capacity, before a single activation. Full fine-tuning a 4B model on this GPU is simply impossible; the optimizer state alone (Adam and , GB) is twice the card.
- Ratio to inference weights: on the parameter side, and once activations enter, real full-training footprints run – inference, the chapter's headline number, now derived.
LoRA / QLoRA fine-tune (the version that actually fits).
- Frozen base in 4-bit (NF4): GB.
- LoRA adapters (say rank 16 on the attention and MLP projections, well under 1% of params) with their own Adam state at bytes each: a few hundred MB, call it GB.
- Activations with gradient checkpointing at , : GB (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver).
- CUDA context: GB.
- Total: GB. Fits comfortably, with room for a larger batch or longer sequences.
The three totals, GB to serve, GB to full-fine-tune, GB to QLoRA, are the entire strategic map of this book on one card: you can serve and QLoRA a 4B model here, you cannot full-fine-tune it, and every technique in the training chapters exists to move a workload from the middle column into the third.
Tooling
The tool is PyTorch's CUDA caching allocator and its introspection API, plus the torch.utils.checkpoint module for gradient checkpointing. The allocator does not hand each tensor its own cudaMalloc; it grabs large blocks from the driver and sub-allocates, which is why freed tensors do not immediately return memory to the OS (they return to PyTorch's pool) and why nvidia-smi shows a higher, stickier number than your tensors' live bytes. The functions that tell the truth about your program's own usage are torch.cuda.memory_allocated() (bytes currently held by live tensors), torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated() (the peak, which is what actually has to fit), and torch.cuda.memory_summary() (a full human-readable table broken down by allocation category). The distinction between allocated and reserved is the one to internalize: reserved is what PyTorch has taken from the driver, allocated is what your tensors are using, and the gap is pool headroom, not a leak. For checkpointing, torch.utils.checkpoint.checkpoint wraps a submodule so its activations are dropped and recomputed, and most model libraries expose a gradient_checkpointing_enable() one-liner that flips it on for every block. The whole discipline of training on 16GB is: watch max_memory_allocated, keep it under the card's capacity, and reach for checkpointing, quantization, and LoRA (equations 6.4–6.5) when it climbs too high.
max_memory_allocated() is the number that matters, not the instantaneous memory_allocated(), because OOM is triggered by the peak, and the peak often occurs mid-backward when a layer's stored activation, its freshly computed gradient, and the optimizer moment about to be updated are all live at once. A program can sit at a comfortable steady-state allocation and still OOM at a transient spike you never see in a snapshot. This is why the lab resets and reads the peak counter rather than sampling the current one, and why the vram-budget above sizes to peak, not average.
Lab
The goal is to measure the memory accounting of equations (6.1)–(6.5) on a real small model: load it for inference and read the footprint, then run a training step (forward, loss, backward, optimizer step) and watch the peak climb through the predicted multiple as gradients, optimizer state, and stored activations come online. The artifact is a JSON report of measured peaks in each phase, checked against the byte arithmetic.
uv init labs/memory
cd labs/memory
uv add torch transformers
"""Measure inference vs training memory and reconcile with the formulas.
Artifact: artifacts/memory_report.json with per-phase peak allocations.
Run on a CUDA machine; on CPU it reports parameter math only.
"""
import json
from pathlib import Path
import torch
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer
MODEL = "Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B"
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def gb(nbytes: int) -> float:
return round(nbytes / 1e9, 3)
def main() -> None:
device = "cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu"
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(MODEL)
P = None
report = {"model": MODEL, "device": device}
# --- Inference footprint (eq 6.1). ---
model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(MODEL, torch_dtype=torch.bfloat16)
P = sum(p.numel() for p in model.parameters())
report["params"] = P
report["predicted_weights_bf16_GB"] = gb(P * 2)
report["predicted_full_train_16B_GB"] = gb(P * 16)
if device == "cuda":
model = model.to("cuda")
torch.cuda.reset_peak_memory_stats()
ids = tok("Explain entropy in one sentence.", return_tensors="pt").input_ids.to("cuda")
with torch.no_grad():
model(ids)
report["measured_inference_peak_GB"] = gb(torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated())
# --- One training step (eq 6.4/6.5). ---
model.train()
opt = torch.optim.AdamW(model.parameters(), lr=1e-5) # allocates m, v
torch.cuda.reset_peak_memory_stats()
out = model(ids, labels=ids)
out.loss.backward() # allocates grads + stored activations (eq 6.3)
opt.step() # materializes Adam m, v (eq 6.4)
report["measured_train_step_peak_GB"] = gb(torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated())
report["train_to_infer_ratio"] = round(
report["measured_train_step_peak_GB"]
/ report["measured_inference_peak_GB"], 2)
print(torch.cuda.memory_summary(abbreviated=True))
else:
report["note"] = "No CUDA; reporting parameter arithmetic only."
(OUT / "memory_report.json").write_text(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
print(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
print(f"Artifact: {(OUT / 'memory_report.json').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python measure_memory.py
The measured training-step peak on a 0.6B model will read a bit below the naive prediction, for two honest reasons: AdamW's and are not allocated until the first opt.step(), so if you read the peak across exactly one step you catch them, but the FP32 master-copy is only maintained when you use an explicit mixed-precision wrapper (plain AdamW on a BF16 model here keeps BF16 moments unless you configure otherwise), so this minimal script measures closer to the "grads + Adam" subset than the full 16-byte recipe. That is a feature: the gap between what this script measures and the line in the budget is exactly the FP32-master-copy and activation overhead that a real mixed-precision trainer adds, and naming that gap is the point. For the full picture, wrap the step in torch.autocast and a GradScaler and re-measure.
What you should see. The script writes artifacts/memory_report.json with the parameter count, the predicted BF16 weight footprint () and full-train footprint (), and the measured peaks. On the GPU, the inference peak lands near the predicted weight bytes plus a little context and KV, while the training-step peak is a clear multiple of it (the train_to_infer_ratio field), because backward brought gradients and stored activations (equation 6.3) online and opt.step() materialized Adam's moments (equation 6.4). Watching that ratio jump from roughly 1 to several in a single script is the entire chapter made empirical: nothing about the model changed, only whether you asked autograd to remember the forward pass and whether an optimizer allocated its state. Record the exact peaks with date and driver (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver); the memory_summary() table printed alongside shows the allocated-versus-reserved split so you can see the caching allocator's headroom directly.
Read [MADL] ch. 8–9 for the backpropagation and optimization backing: ch. 8 derives backprop through the layers (equation 6.3's linear-layer rule is their canonical example, extended to whole networks), and ch. 9 covers the optimizers whose state equation (6.4) is accounting for. Their treatment of why the backward pass needs the forward activations is the long-form version of the boxed result here, and it is the cleanest bridge from chapter 1's abstract reverse-mode claim to this chapter's byte-level consequences.
"Why does training an LLM need eight times the memory of running it? Two matrix transposes and a greedy optimizer." A post built on one boxed equation, the weight gradient of a linear layer is X-transpose times the upstream gradient, which means the backward pass literally cannot run without the input X that the forward pass saw, so every layer has to hoard its activations. Add AdamW keeping two full-size extra copies of every weight (its m and v moments), and you've derived the 16-bytes-per-parameter rule that says a 4B model costs 64 GB to fine-tune and 8 GB to serve. The reader walks away able to look at any model size and any GPU and know, in their head, whether it fits, which is the most practically useful party trick in applied ML.
Sampling and decoding
The model gives you a probability distribution over the next token. It does not give you a token. The step that turns that distribution into an actual choice is sampling, and it is where a great deal of eval reproducibility is won or lost, because two people running "the same model on the same benchmark" can get different scores purely because one used greedy decoding and the other sampled at temperature 0.7. Sampling is a set of knobs that reshape the distribution before drawing from it: temperature, top-k, top-p, min-p, repetition penalties. Each one is a small, exact transformation, and I am going to derive the most important (temperature, as a Boltzmann rescaling) and specify the rest precisely, then argue hard that evals must pin every one of these plus the seed, and be honest about where even a pinned seed stops guaranteeing determinism. The lab runs one prompt through a sweep of sampler settings and shows the outputs diverge, which is the whole reproducibility argument made visible.
Theory
Greedy versus stochastic
The simplest decoder is greedy: at each step take the single highest-probability token, . It is deterministic (same input, same output, always) and it is what you often want for evals where there is one right answer and you want to measure the model's best single guess. Its weakness is that locally-greedy is not globally-optimal (the highest-probability token now can lead into a low-probability continuation later, the classic garden-path problem), and it produces repetitive, flat text because it never takes a risk. Stochastic decoding instead samples from the distribution, , which introduces diversity and, for reasoning models, is often necessary because the interesting solution path is not always the single most probable token at every step. The knobs below all operate on stochastic decoding, reshaping the distribution you sample from. Greedy is the limit of one of them (temperature to zero), which is the first thing to derive.
Temperature as Boltzmann rescaling
Temperature is the master knob, and it comes straight from statistical physics, which is not a coincidence: the softmax is the Boltzmann distribution, and temperature is the same temperature.
Recall the softmax over logits from the objective chapter, . In statistical mechanics, the probability of a state with energy at temperature is the Boltzmann distribution . Identify the negative logit with energy () and the two are the same object. Temperature enters by dividing the logits by a scalar before the softmax:
Now read off the two limits, because they explain everything the knob does. As , divide the logits by a vanishing number and the largest logit's exponential dominates all others infinitely, so the distribution collapses onto the single most probable token: one-hot at . Temperature zero is exactly greedy decoding, which is why "temperature 0" and "greedy" are used interchangeably. As , divide by a huge number and every logit maps toward the same value, so , the uniform distribution, maximal randomness, the model's preferences erased. Between them, leaves the distribution exactly as the model produced it (equation 7.1 with is the plain softmax).
To see the sharpening precisely, look at the ratio of any two probabilities:
The log-odds between any pair of tokens is the fixed logit gap divided by . Lowering multiplies every log-odds by , stretching the distribution's contrasts and concentrating mass on the front-runners; raising shrinks the log-odds toward zero, flattening. Temperature does not change the ranking of tokens (equation 7.2 keeps the same sign), only how sharply the probability mass is distributed across that ranking. That single fact, reranking-preserving, contrast-scaling, is why temperature is the right first knob and why calling it "creativity" is a reasonable shorthand for "how far down the ranked list the sampler is willing to wander."
Truncation: top-k, top-p, min-p
Temperature reshapes the whole distribution but never zeroes anything out, so at high temperature there is always a small chance of sampling a genuinely bad token from the long tail. The truncation knobs fix that by cutting the tail off before sampling, then renormalizing what remains. They differ in how they decide where to cut.
Top-k keeps the highest-probability tokens and zeros the rest: sort the distribution, take the top , renormalize over just those. It is simple but rigid, because a fixed is too permissive when the model is confident (the true answer is in the top 2, but you keep 50) and too restrictive when the model is genuinely uncertain (the mass is spread over 200 plausible tokens but you keep 50).
Top-p (nucleus sampling) fixes the rigidity by cutting at a cumulative probability mass instead of a fixed count. Sort tokens by probability descending, then keep the smallest set whose cumulative probability first exceeds (say ), and renormalize:
The kept set (the "nucleus") is adaptive: when the model is confident, a couple of tokens already exceed and the nucleus is tiny; when it is uncertain, many tokens are needed to reach and the nucleus is large. That adaptivity is why top-p is the default in most serving stacks.
Min-p takes a different adaptive cut: keep every token whose probability is at least a fraction of the most probable token's probability, . It scales the threshold to the model's confidence directly, keeping more when the top token is only mildly favored and fewer when one token dominates, and it tends to behave better than top-p at high temperature because it is anchored to the peak rather than to a cumulative sum that a fat tail can inflate.
The order these are applied in matters and is a real source of cross-tool disagreement: some stacks apply temperature first then truncate, others truncate on the raw distribution then apply temperature to the survivors. The results differ, which is exactly why "temperature 0.7, top-p 0.9" is not a complete specification unless you also know the tool and its ordering.
Repetition penalties
Language models left to sample can fall into loops, repeating a phrase because each repetition makes the next repetition more likely (a token that just appeared has high probability of appearing again). Repetition penalties fight this by down-weighting tokens that have already appeared. The common repetition penalty divides (for positive logits) or multiplies (for negative) the logit of any previously-seen token by before the softmax, pushing its probability down. Variants like frequency penalty and presence penalty subtract a term proportional to how often (frequency) or whether at all (presence) a token has appeared. These are heuristic, not derived from a principle, and they interact with the truncation knobs, which is one more setting that has to be pinned to reproduce a result.
Why evals must pin all of it, and the limits of seeds
Here is the argument that makes this chapter matter for the thesis. An eval score is a measurement of a model, and a measurement is meaningless if you cannot say what apparatus produced it. Every knob above changes the distribution of outputs, so two eval runs with different sampler settings are measuring different things even on the identical model and prompts. Greedy versus temperature-0.7 can swing a math benchmark by several points, because greedy commits to one reasoning path while sampling explores several; top-p 0.9 versus top-p 1.0 changes which tail tokens are reachable; the tool's truncation-ordering changes the numbers again. So a defensible eval pins the entire decoding configuration: decoder (greedy or sampled), temperature, top-k, top-p, min-p, repetition penalties, max tokens, stop sequences, and the seed, all logged next to the score. This is the sampler-side twin of the chat-template rule from the tokenization chapter: both are parts of the model's effective input/output contract that are invisible if you only log the model name.
The seed deserves its own honesty. Setting a random seed makes the pseudo-random draws reproducible, so on a single machine, single GPU, single library version, a seeded sampled run repeats. But a seed does not guarantee determinism across everything people assume it does. Floating-point reductions on a GPU are not associative (chapter 1, equation 1.8), and many CUDA kernels sum in a nondeterministic order for speed, so the same logits can come out a few ULPs different run to run, and near a truncation boundary or a close that tiny difference can flip which token is chosen and cascade into a completely different generation. Batching changes results too: a prompt decoded alone versus in a batch with others can hit different kernels and different numerics. And different hardware, driver, or library versions reorder reductions differently. So the practical rule is: seed for repeatability on a fixed rig, but do not claim bit-identical outputs across machines or batch sizes, and for evals prefer greedy (which is robust to small logit perturbations unless two tokens are near-tied) or report over multiple seeds with a confidence interval rather than trusting one seeded run. The statistics of that (how many samples, what interval) is a Part III chapter; the point here is that determinism has a boundary and you should know where it is.
Tooling
The tools are two, at two altitudes. At the library level, Hugging Face transformers exposes all of this through model.generate and a GenerationConfig: do_sample (greedy versus stochastic), temperature, top_k, top_p, min_p, repetition_penalty, max_new_tokens, and the seed via transformers.set_seed or a manual torch.manual_seed. The GenerationConfig is a serializable object, which is exactly what you want for reproducibility: you can save it next to an eval result as the record of the decoding apparatus. At the serving level, vLLM (Part II) exposes the same knobs through its SamplingParams, and the two do not always apply them in the same order or with identical defaults, which is a concrete reason a benchmark run through transformers.generate and the same benchmark through a vLLM endpoint can disagree slightly even with matching nominal settings. Knowing that the knobs are the same math (equations 7.1–7.3) but the ordering and defaults differ across tools is what lets you debug a "why did my score change when I switched serving backends" mystery instead of being baffled by it.
GenerationConfig has defaults baked into each model's generation_config.json on the Hub, so model.generate() with no arguments does not mean greedy, it means whatever that checkpoint shipped as its default, which is frequently do_sample=True at some temperature. This is a classic footgun: you think you are measuring greedy accuracy and you are actually measuring a sampled run at the model author's chosen temperature. Always pass an explicit GenerationConfig (or explicit kwargs) in an eval, never rely on the checkpoint default, and log the config you passed. The default is convenience for chat, not a specification for measurement.
Lab
The goal is to make sampler sensitivity undeniable: take one fixed prompt and one fixed model, run it through a sweep of decoding configurations (greedy, low temperature, high temperature, top-p, min-p), with a fixed seed for the stochastic ones, and record how the generated text diverges. The artifact is a JSON table of (config, output) pairs plus a diversity measure, which is the evidence behind "pin the sampler in your evals."
uv init labs/sampling
cd labs/sampling
uv add torch transformers
"""Run one prompt through a sweep of decoding configs and diff the outputs.
Artifact: artifacts/sampler_sweep.json with per-config generations.
"""
import json
from pathlib import Path
import torch
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer, set_seed
MODEL = "Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B"
PROMPT = "Give me a one-sentence description of a city by the sea."
SEED = 0
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
CONFIGS = [
{"name": "greedy", "do_sample": False},
{"name": "temp_0.3", "do_sample": True, "temperature": 0.3},
{"name": "temp_1.0", "do_sample": True, "temperature": 1.0},
{"name": "temp_1.5", "do_sample": True, "temperature": 1.5},
{"name": "top_p_0.9", "do_sample": True, "temperature": 1.0, "top_p": 0.9},
{"name": "top_k_20", "do_sample": True, "temperature": 1.0, "top_k": 20},
{"name": "min_p_0.1", "do_sample": True, "temperature": 1.0, "min_p": 0.1},
]
def main() -> None:
device = "cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu"
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(MODEL)
model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(MODEL, torch_dtype=torch.bfloat16).to(device)
model.eval()
messages = [{"role": "user", "content": PROMPT}]
ids = tok.apply_chat_template(
messages, add_generation_prompt=True, return_tensors="pt"
).to(device)
results = []
for cfg in CONFIGS:
name = cfg.pop("name")
gens = []
# Two draws per config to show stochastic spread (greedy repeats itself).
for run in range(2):
set_seed(SEED + run)
with torch.no_grad():
out = model.generate(
ids, max_new_tokens=40, pad_token_id=tok.eos_token_id, **cfg
)
text = tok.decode(out[0, ids.shape[1]:], skip_special_tokens=True)
gens.append(text.strip())
results.append({"config": name, "params": cfg, "gen_seed0": gens[0], "gen_seed1": gens[1]})
# Greedy should be identical across the two draws; sampling should differ.
for r in results:
r["two_draws_identical"] = (r["gen_seed0"] == r["gen_seed1"])
(OUT / "sampler_sweep.json").write_text(json.dumps(results, indent=2))
print(f"{'config':12} {'identical draws?':16} first generation")
print("-" * 80)
for r in results:
print(f"{r['config']:12} {str(r['two_draws_identical']):16} "
f"{r['gen_seed0'][:48]!r}")
print(f"\nArtifact: {(OUT / 'sampler_sweep.json').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python sampler_sweep.py
When do_sample=False (greedy), transformers will warn if you also pass temperature/top_p because those knobs are ignored in greedy mode, so the config dicts above only attach sampling knobs to sampling configs, which is why greedy has none. Also, set_seed before each generate is what makes the two same-seed draws comparable; note that even so, greedy's two draws are identical because it is deterministic regardless of seed, while the sampled configs' two draws (seed 0 vs seed 1) differ, which is the point. If you run on CPU the outputs are reproducible but slow; on GPU you get the honest reminder from the theory that a third run at the same seed may still differ by a token if a CUDA reduction reorders near a boundary.
What you should see. The script writes artifacts/sampler_sweep.json and prints a table where the same prompt produces visibly different continuations across the seven configs. Greedy's two draws are identical (two_draws_identical: true), the confirmation that temperature-zero decoding is deterministic. The low-temperature (0.3) output is safe and generic; temperature 1.5 is noticeably wilder and may start to wander or degrade, exactly what equation (7.2)'s log-odds-shrinking predicts; and the truncation configs (top-p, top-k, min-p) sit in between, coherent but varied. The sampled configs' two seeds produce different text, making the seed's role concrete. The whole table is one page of evidence for the chapter's thesis: nothing but the decoder changed, and the model's behavior changed with it, so an eval that does not pin this configuration is not a reproducible measurement. Keep the JSON as the receipt, and note in it the exact transformers version, since truncation ordering and defaults can shift between releases (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver).
Read [BRM] ch. 2, which walks through decoding strategies for reasoning models specifically, greedy versus sampling, temperature, and the truncation methods, with the reasoning-model angle that the "best" single path is often not the greedy one, so sampling and inference-time search matter more here than for ordinary chat. Equation (7.1)'s temperature limits and the top-p adaptivity of equation (7.3) are the mechanics behind the strategies Raschka compares, and his chapter is the bridge from these knobs to the inference-time-scaling ideas that recur in Part VI.
"Temperature in an LLM is literally temperature, the softmax is the Boltzmann distribution, and turning the knob to zero is how you get greedy decoding." A post that identifies the logit with negative energy, shows that dividing logits by tau scales every pairwise log-odds by 1/tau (so it sharpens contrasts without changing the ranking), and reads off the two limits: tau to zero collapses to the single best token, tau to infinity flattens to uniform. Then the practical sting for anyone benchmarking models: because every one of these knobs reshapes the output distribution, an eval that reports a score without reporting temperature, top-p, and seed is reporting a measurement with no units, and even the seed only buys you determinism until a nondeterministic GPU reduction flips a near-tied token. Physics, decoding, and reproducibility in one thread.
Anatomy of the open-model zoo
An open-weight model on disk is not a mystery; it is a directory of files with a rigid, readable structure, and being able to open that directory and know exactly what you are holding (how many parameters, in what dtype, dense or mixture-of-experts, tied embeddings or not, and under what license) is a basic literacy the rest of the book assumes. This chapter is that literacy. I will read config.json as the model's blueprint, read safetensors as its weight store (and explain why it replaced the pickle-based format), draw the dense-versus-MoE distinction with the active-versus-total-parameter arithmetic that makes gpt-oss's headline numbers make sense, pin down the Qwen3 and gpt-oss specifics that recur across the book, and take the license question seriously because "open" means several different things and a thesis has to say which one it relies on. The lab is a model-card inspector that reads any local checkpoint and prints its true anatomy.
Theory
config.json is the blueprint
Every Hugging Face model ships a config.json, and it is the single source of truth for the architecture. Everything I derived across Part I appears in it as a named field, which is why I have been able to say "read it off the config" all chapter long. The essential fields and where they came from: model_type names the architecture class; hidden_size is ; intermediate_size is the SwiGLU width (the -adjusted number from equation 4.4); num_hidden_layers is the block count ; num_attention_heads and num_key_value_heads are and , whose ratio is the GQA group size (equation 4.10); head_dim is (which, recall, is not always hidden_size / num_attention_heads); vocab_size is ; tie_word_embeddings says whether the embedding and lm_head are one tensor or two (the weight-tying decision from the embeddings chapter); rms_norm_eps is the RMSNorm ; rope_theta is the RoPE base (equation 4.8); torch_dtype is the storage dtype; and max_position_embeddings is the trained context length. For MoE models there are additional fields (num_experts, num_experts_per_tok, and often a moe_intermediate_size) that I will use below. The point is that a config is not documentation about the model, it is the model's shape; instantiate the architecture class with it and you have the model minus the weights, which is exactly what the transformer-block lab did.
safetensors is the weight store
The weights themselves live in one or more .safetensors files (sharded when large, with a model.safetensors.index.json mapping each tensor name to its shard). The format is deliberately boring, and its design is a direct reaction to the format it replaced. The older PyTorch .bin/.pt format is a Python pickle, which can execute arbitrary code on load, so downloading a .bin from an untrusted source and loading it was a genuine remote-code-execution risk. safetensors fixes this by storing only data, never code: the file is a small JSON header followed by a contiguous block of raw tensor bytes.
A safetensors file is dead simple to parse by hand, which is why the lab can read one without loading the model. The first 8 bytes are an unsigned little-endian integer giving the header length. The next N bytes are a UTF-8 JSON object mapping each tensor's name to its dtype, its shape, and its byte data_offsets [begin, end) into the data blob that follows. After the header come the raw tensor bytes, back to back, no framing. Because the layout is just offsets into a flat blob, loading is a zero-copy memory-map: the library mmaps the file and hands you tensor views straight onto the mapped bytes, so a 15 GB checkpoint does not need 15 GB of read-into-RAM before you can use it, and moving to GPU streams directly. That header-plus-blob structure is why I can compute a checkpoint's exact parameter count and dtype breakdown by reading only the JSON header, a few kilobytes, without touching the weights, which is the trick the inspector lab uses.
The practical consequences I lean on: safetensors is safe to load from the Hub without trusting the uploader's code, it is fast because of the zero-copy mmap, and its header is machine-readable metadata that tells you the dtype and shape of every tensor in the model without instantiating anything. When a chapter says "the weights are bytes," the safetensors header is where you verify and directly.
Dense versus mixture-of-experts
The biggest architectural fork in the current zoo is dense versus mixture-of-experts (MoE), and it changes what "parameter count" even means. In a dense model, every parameter is used for every token: a forward pass touches all weights. In an MoE model, the feed-forward sublayer of each block is replaced by a set of expert MLPs plus a small router, and for each token the router selects only the top- experts to run (typically of or ). The token's feed-forward is computed by just those experts; the other sit idle for that token. So an MoE model has two very different parameter counts, and confusing them is a classic error.
Let a model have a shared part (embeddings, attention, norms, router) with parameters, and MoE feed-forward layers with experts each of size parameters, of which the router activates per token. The total parameter count, what sits on disk and consumes VRAM, counts every expert:
summed over the layers that carry experts. The active parameter count, what actually does arithmetic for a given token, and therefore what governs compute cost and latency, counts only the selected experts per layer:
The ratio (when experts dominate the count) is the fraction of the model that lights up per token. For gpt-oss-20b this is about B active out of B total, and for gpt-oss-120b about B active out of B total, so the 120B model computes like a ~5B model but must be stored like a 117B one. This split is the entire strategic point of MoE and the entire problem it creates on a 16GB card: compute scales with active parameters, but memory scales with total parameters (equation 8.1 is what has to fit in VRAM). MoE buys you the quality of a big model at the inference speed of a small one, but it does nothing for the memory of a small one, you still have to hold every expert. That is why a 20B-total MoE, even at 4-bit, is a tight or impossible fit on this card while its 3.6B active count sounds harmless, and why reading the total count off the config (equation 8.1) rather than the marketing "active" number is a survival skill for planning what runs here.
Qwen3 and gpt-oss specifics
Two model families recur throughout this book, and their concrete choices are worth stating once. Qwen3 comes in dense variants (0.6B, 1.7B, 4B, 8B, and up) and MoE variants (like the 30B-total/3B-active). Across them it uses the modern block I derived in chapter 4: GQA (the 0.6B has 16 query heads and 8 KV heads), SwiGLU, RMSNorm, RoPE, and, a Qwen3-specific detail, per-head RMSNorm on the query and key projections (q_norm/k_norm), the small extra tensors that made my hand-built block's parameter count come up slightly short in that chapter's lab. The smaller Qwen3 models tie their embeddings; the config's tie_word_embeddings tells you which. Qwen3 is my default workhorse because the dense 0.6B–4B range spans "trivially fits" to "fits with care" on 16GB, which is exactly the regime this book lives in.
gpt-oss (OpenAI's open-weight release) is the MoE case study: 20B-total and 120B-total, both mixture-of-experts, and notably shipped natively in MXFP4, the 4.25-bits-per-weight microscaling format I derived in chapter 1, for the expert weights, which is how the 120B version is even distributable. Reading a gpt-oss checkpoint is the payoff for the dtype chapter: you will see the expert weights stored as packed uint8 blocks (two fp4 values per byte, so the safetensors header reports them as U8, not a 4-bit dtype) alongside E8M0 uint8 block-scale tensors, not BF16, and the config's expert and top- fields let you compute equations (8.1) and (8.2) yourself. gpt-oss also uses attention-sink and sliding-window details that I will meet in the inference part; here the point is that it is the concrete example of MoE-plus-low-bit-quantization, the two techniques that let a "large" model touch a small card at all.
What "open" means for a thesis
Finally, the license, which is not a footnote for work that has to survive a committee. "Open" spans a wide range and the differences are legally real. Open weights means the trained parameters are downloadable and runnable, but it says nothing about the training data, the training code, or what you are permitted to do with the model. The permissive end is a true open-source license (Apache 2.0 or MIT), under which you can use, modify, fine-tune, redistribute, and deploy commercially with essentially only an attribution obligation, Qwen3 is Apache 2.0, and gpt-oss is Apache 2.0, which is a large part of why I chose them as the book's spine: a thesis can build on them without a permissions asterisk. The restrictive end is a custom community license (Llama's, for instance) that grants broad use but attaches conditions, acceptable-use policies, a scale threshold above which you need a separate grant, naming/attribution requirements, and restrictions on using outputs to train competing models, which are fine for research but must be read and cited, because "I fine-tuned Llama" carries obligations that "I fine-tuned Qwen3-Apache" does not. Separately, open weights is not open source and neither is open data: almost no frontier-scale model publishes its training corpus, so reproducibility claims in a thesis have to be scoped to "from these released weights," not "from scratch." The rule I hold myself to: for every model the thesis depends on, record the exact license, its commercial and derivative terms, and whether the weights suffice to reproduce my results without data I do not have, and prefer Apache/MIT models for the load-bearing parts precisely so those answers are clean.
Tooling
The tools are the Hugging Face Hub client and the safetensors library, plus transformers' AutoConfig. The Hub client (huggingface_hub) can list and download a repo's files and, importantly, fetch just the metadata, you can read a config.json and even a safetensors header without pulling the multi-gigabyte weights, using hf_hub_download for the small files or the safetensors safe_open context manager to inspect tensor keys, dtypes, and shapes lazily. AutoConfig.from_pretrained parses config.json into a typed object with all the fields from the theory. The safetensors.torch.load_file and safe_open functions give you the zero-copy tensor access described above. Together these let the inspector lab answer "what is this model, really" from metadata alone, which is both fast and safe (no code execution, no full download). This metadata-first approach is how you triage a candidate model, total parameters, dtype, dense-or-MoE, license, before committing disk and VRAM to it, which on a bandwidth- and space-constrained single machine (1TB NVMe plus the 5TB NAS) is a real workflow, not a nicety.
The torch_dtype field in config.json is the dtype the model was saved in, but for MoE models the expert weights may be stored in a different dtype than the config's headline value, gpt-oss keeps most tensors in BF16 but the experts in MXFP4, so a single torch_dtype cannot describe the whole checkpoint. The only way to know each tensor's true dtype is to read the safetensors header per tensor, which is exactly why the inspector below iterates tensors rather than trusting the config's one-line dtype. Sizing VRAM from torch_dtype × param_count alone will mis-estimate any mixed-dtype checkpoint; sum the actual per-tensor bytes instead.
Lab
The goal is a model-card inspector: point it at a local (or Hub) checkpoint and have it print the true anatomy, parameter count, per-dtype byte breakdown, dense-versus-MoE with active/total split, GQA ratio, tying, and license, reading from the config and the safetensors header without instantiating the model. The artifact is a JSON model card on disk, which becomes the standard triage record for every model the thesis touches.
uv init labs/model-zoo
cd labs/model-zoo
uv add transformers safetensors huggingface_hub
"""Inspect a checkpoint's anatomy from config + safetensors header only.
Artifact: artifacts/model_card_<name>.json
Usage: uv run python inspect_model.py Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B
"""
import json
import sys
from collections import defaultdict
from pathlib import Path
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download, list_repo_files
from safetensors import safe_open
from transformers import AutoConfig
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
DTYPE_BYTES = { # bytes per element for common safetensors dtypes
"F32": 4, "F16": 2, "BF16": 2, "F8_E4M3": 1, "F8_E5M2": 1,
"I8": 1, "U8": 1, "I32": 4, "I64": 8,
# safetensors has no MXFP4/F4 dtype: gpt-oss stores 4-bit MoE experts as
# packed U8 *_blocks (two fp4 values per byte) plus U8 *_scales.
}
def inspect(model_id: str) -> dict:
cfg = AutoConfig.from_pretrained(model_id)
files = list_repo_files(model_id)
shards = [f for f in files if f.endswith(".safetensors")]
dtype_params = defaultdict(int) # dtype -> element count
dtype_bytes = defaultdict(float) # dtype -> bytes
total_params = 0
for shard in shards:
local = hf_hub_download(model_id, shard)
with safe_open(local, framework="pt") as f:
for key in f.keys():
sl = f.get_slice(key)
shape = sl.get_shape()
dtype = sl.get_dtype()
n = 1
for d in shape:
n *= d
# gpt-oss packs each MXFP4 expert matrix into a uint8 *_blocks
# tensor at two fp4 values per byte, so the logical parameter
# count is twice the stored element count (the *_scales tensors
# are E8M0 uint8 block scales, counted as-is). Size storage from
# the real stored bytes, not the doubled parameter count.
n_params = n * 2 if key.endswith("_blocks") else n
total_params += n_params
dtype_params[dtype] += n_params
dtype_bytes[dtype] += n * DTYPE_BYTES.get(dtype, 2)
is_moe = hasattr(cfg, "num_experts") and getattr(cfg, "num_experts", 0)
card = {
"model": model_id,
"model_type": cfg.model_type,
"total_params": total_params,
"total_params_readable": f"{total_params/1e9:.2f}B",
"storage_bytes": int(sum(dtype_bytes.values())),
"storage_GB": round(sum(dtype_bytes.values()) / 1e9, 3),
"dtype_breakdown": {
k: {"params": v, "GB": round(dtype_bytes[k]/1e9, 3)}
for k, v in dtype_params.items()
},
"hidden_size": getattr(cfg, "hidden_size", None),
"num_layers": getattr(cfg, "num_hidden_layers", None),
"num_attention_heads": getattr(cfg, "num_attention_heads", None),
"num_key_value_heads": getattr(cfg, "num_key_value_heads", None),
"gqa_group_size": (getattr(cfg, "num_attention_heads", 0)
// max(getattr(cfg, "num_key_value_heads", 1), 1)),
"vocab_size": getattr(cfg, "vocab_size", None),
"tie_word_embeddings": getattr(cfg, "tie_word_embeddings", None),
"context_length": getattr(cfg, "max_position_embeddings", None),
"is_moe": bool(is_moe),
}
if is_moe:
E = getattr(cfg, "num_experts", 0)
k = getattr(cfg, "num_experts_per_tok", 0)
card["moe"] = {
"num_experts": E,
"experts_per_token": k,
"active_fraction": round(k / E, 4) if E else None,
"note": "active params ~= shared + (k/E) * expert params (eq 8.2)",
}
return card
def main() -> None:
model_id = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B"
card = inspect(model_id)
name = model_id.replace("/", "_")
path = OUT / f"model_card_{name}.json"
path.write_text(json.dumps(card, indent=2))
print(json.dumps(card, indent=2))
print(f"\nArtifact: {path.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python inspect_model.py Qwen/Qwen3-0.6B
# then try an MoE checkpoint to see the active/total split, e.g.:
# uv run python inspect_model.py Qwen/Qwen3-30B-A3B
list_repo_files plus hf_hub_download on every shard will pull the full weights the first time you inspect a large model, which defeats the "metadata only" goal for a 120B checkpoint. For true header-only inspection on huge models, fetch just the model.safetensors.index.json (a small file mapping tensor names to shards and, in newer exports, carrying dtype/shape metadata) and parse that, or read only the first shard's header. The script as written is fine for the small Qwen3 models the book uses day to day; the header-only optimization matters exactly when the model is too big to want on disk, which is the case the metadata-first workflow is for. Also, gpt-oss does not expose an MXFP4 dtype to safetensors at all: it stores each expert weight matrix as a packed uint8 *_blocks tensor (two fp4 values per byte) next to an E8M0 uint8 *_scales tensor, so the header reports U8 and a naive element count undercounts the expert parameters by 2x. The inspector detects the *_blocks tensors and doubles their logical parameter count (while still sizing storage from the real uint8 bytes), which is why its total for gpt-oss matches the published figure instead of coming in at half; the tiny *_scales bytes are left counted as-is.
What you should see. The script writes artifacts/model_card_<name>.json and prints a complete anatomy of the checkpoint from metadata: the true total parameter count (verified against the safetensors headers, not the model name), a per-dtype breakdown showing exactly how many parameters and gigabytes sit in each format, the GQA group size read straight from the head counts, whether embeddings are tied, the context length, and, for an MoE model, the expert count, top-, and active fraction that feed equations (8.1) and (8.2). Running it on the dense Qwen3-0.6B shows a clean single-dtype BF16 checkpoint around 1.2 GB; running it on a Qwen3 MoE or gpt-oss checkpoint shows the total-versus-active gap that is the whole point of the mixture-of-experts section, and (for gpt-oss) a mixed-dtype breakdown with the experts as packed uint8 blocks (two fp4 values per byte, doubled back to their true parameter count) plus their uint8 block scales. This JSON card is the triage artifact I keep for every model the thesis uses: it answers "will this fit, is it dense or sparse, and can I legally build on it" before I spend disk or VRAM. Record the license separately from the card (the inspector reads architecture, not the license file); pull it from the repo's LICENSE and note it in your thesis's model table.
Read [BRM] ch. 1 for the survey of the open reasoning-model landscape and App. C for the Qwen3 architecture in full source, which is the concrete backing for the Qwen3 specifics here (the GQA head counts, the q/k norms, the SwiGLU and RoPE settings you will see this lab's inspector report). Raschka's appendix walks the exact config fields this chapter reads, so running the inspector on Qwen3-0.6B while reading App. C lets you match every printed number to a line of the architecture it describes.
"A 120-billion-parameter model that computes like a 5-billion-parameter one, and still won't fit on your GPU." A post that untangles the two parameter counts every mixture-of-experts model has: total params (every expert, what you must store) versus active params (the two-of-many experts each token actually uses, what governs speed). The clean punchline is that MoE decouples compute from memory, you get big-model quality at small-model latency, but you pay big-model VRAM regardless, which is exactly why gpt-oss ships its experts in a 4-bit microscaling format just to be distributable. Wrap it with the practical literacy of reading a safetensors header (an 8-byte length, a JSON map of offsets, and a zero-copy mmap that replaced the arbitrary-code-execution risk of pickle files) and you've taught a reader to open any model on the Hub and know what they're actually holding.
Prefill, decode, and the roofline
Every token a reasoning model emits is paid for twice: once when it reads the prompt, and once, repeatedly, as it writes its chain of thought. Those two payments come from different accounts. Prefill spends compute; decode spends memory bandwidth. If you only remember one thing from Part II, make it that sentence, because almost every serving decision downstream (batch size, quantization format, KV dtype, how long a reasoning trace you can afford) is really a decision about which of those two accounts you are drawing from.
This chapter builds the roofline model for the baseline machine (MSI Aegis R2, RTX 5080 16GB, Blackwell, GDDR7 at ~960 GB/s) and derives a hard ceiling on decode throughput that no amount of clever code can beat. Then the lab measures both phases and plots them against that ceiling so I can see, in one figure, how much of the theoretical roof my stack actually reaches.
Theory
The two phases of autoregressive generation
A decoder-only transformer generates text one token at a time, but the work is not uniform across a request. Split it in two.
Prefill processes the entire prompt in a single forward pass. If the prompt is tokens long, prefill runs all tokens through every layer at once, as one big matrix multiply per weight matrix. It fills the KV cache for those positions and produces the logits for the first generated token. Prefill is a batched, parallel operation: lots of tokens, each weight matrix touched once, reused across all tokens.
Decode generates the completion, one token per forward pass. Each step feeds the single most recent token through the network, reads the KV cache for all previous positions, appends one new K and V vector per layer, and emits one token's logits. Decode is inherently sequential (token depends on token ) and, per step, it touches every weight matrix to produce exactly one token.
That structural asymmetry (many tokens per weight-read in prefill, one token per weight-read in decode) is the whole story. Let me make it quantitative.
Arithmetic intensity and the roofline
The roofline model, borrowed from HPC, plots achievable throughput against a single number: arithmetic intensity, the ratio of compute done to bytes moved from memory.
A kernel is limited by whichever resource it exhausts first. If it does a lot of math per byte fetched, it saturates the compute units and is compute-bound. If it does little math per byte, it starves waiting on memory and is memory-bandwidth-bound. The achievable performance is:
where is the chip's peak compute (FLOP/s) and is its memory bandwidth (bytes/s). Plotted with on the x-axis and on the y-axis, this is two straight lines: a slanted line that rises with intensity, and a flat line that caps it. They meet at the ridge point.
Below the ridge you are memory-bound; above it you are compute-bound. The ridge point is a property of the hardware alone, and it is the number that tells you which phase lives on which side of the roof.
The Blackwell RTX 5080 carries 16GB of GDDR7 on a 256-bit bus at 30 Gbps per pin, which the datasheet reports as a memory bandwidth of about .
Peak dense BF16 tensor throughput is a datasheet figure I should stamp rather than guess; call it and record the value from NVIDIA's spec sheet for the exact card (on the order of a few hundred TFLOP/s for BF16 with FP32 accumulate; NVIDIA also advertises ~1801 AI TOPS at FP4 with sparsity, a different number for a different datatype). Using a placeholder purely to locate the ridge:
So the chip needs roughly 470 FLOP of work per byte read to become compute-bound. Anything less intense, and the GDDR7 bus is the bottleneck. Re-run this with the real from your datasheet and record the date and driver.
Why prefill is compute-bound
In prefill, each weight matrix is read from memory once and multiplied against token vectors. A matmul of against an activation block does about FLOP while reading bytes of weights (BF16). The arithmetic intensity is therefore:
The intensity scales with the prompt length . Because , you need a prompt longer than the ridge point () to cross onto the compute roof; feed a prompt of more than ~500 tokens and sails past the ridge, landing you firmly on the compute-bound roof. This is why prefill throughput is quoted in the thousands of tokens per second and why a long prompt costs time roughly in proportion to its length: you are billing the compute account.
Why decode is bandwidth-bound
In decode, batch size 1, each weight matrix is read once and multiplied against a single token vector. Same bytes read, but only FLOP of useful work:
An intensity of about 1 FLOP/byte, against a ridge of ~470, means decode runs at roughly of peak compute. The tensor cores sit almost idle while the memory bus does all the work. Decode is memory-bound, full stop, and the only lever that matters is how many bytes you read per token.
The decode throughput ceiling
Here is the punchline of the chapter. In decode at batch size 1, producing one token requires reading essentially the entire set of model weights once (every layer contributes to every token), plus the KV cache for the current context. If is the bytes read per generated token, then the number of tokens per second cannot exceed the bandwidth divided by that:
For short contexts the KV read is small and the weight bytes, so the ceiling is set almost entirely by model size and dtype.
Using and taking weight bytes (short context, batch 1), the theoretical decode ceiling for each model in the repertoire:
Qwen3-8B, BF16. Weights . These BF16 weights do not actually fit on 16GB (chapter 2), so the 8B is served with FP8 weights in practice; that halves the read to ~8.2 GB and lifts its ceiling to ~117 tok/s.
Qwen3-14B, AWQ 4-bit. Weights (4-bit packed plus group scales, ~4.5 effective bits/param).
gpt-oss-20b, MXFP4 (MoE). Only the active experts are read per token, roughly active params at ~4.25 bits plus attention in higher precision; call the effective read .
These are ceilings, not predictions. Real throughput is lower because of kernel-launch overhead, imperfect memory coalescing, sampling, and the growing KV read as context lengthens. The gap between ceiling and measurement is exactly the quantity the lab plots. Record the measured values on the baseline machine with date and driver.
Two lessons fall out immediately. First, quantization buys decode speed directly by shrinking : the 14B at 4-bit has a higher ceiling than the 8B at 16-bit despite having more parameters, because it reads fewer bytes per token. Second, MoE cheats the ceiling by reading only its active experts, which is why gpt-oss-20b can be fast in decode despite 21B total parameters. The roofline explains both without a single benchmark.
Batching lifts the ceiling by raising intensity
The batch-size-1 ceiling is the per-sequence limit, and it is pessimistic on purpose. The moment you decode sequences together in one forward pass, each weight matrix is still read once from VRAM but is now multiplied against token vectors instead of one. The bytes read stay the same while the useful FLOP multiply by , so decode's arithmetic intensity climbs from about 1 toward :
Aggregate throughput therefore rises with batch size until either the intensity reaches the ridge point (at which decode finally becomes compute-bound, requiring a batch of a few hundred sequences that a 16GB KV pool cannot hold anyway) or the KV cache runs out of room. On this card the KV pool caps the batch long before compute does, so in practice decode stays memory-bound and the real question is how much of the weight-read cost I can amortize across the handful of sequences the pool allows. This is the precise sense in which per-sequence latency and aggregate throughput are different numbers: a single request sees the batch-1 ceiling, while the server as a whole can exceed it in total tok/s by serving several requests per weight read. Quoting one when you mean the other is the most common benchmarking error, and the benchmarking chapter is built to keep the two apart.
The compute roof still matters, for prefill sizing
Decode lives so far below the ridge that the compute roof feels irrelevant, but it governs the other phase. Prefill's cost scales with prompt length, and because prefill is compute-bound its throughput is capped by , not bandwidth. That sets a floor on time-to-first-token for long prompts: a 16K-token prompt must push 16K tokens through the compute roof before the first output token appears, and no batching trick removes that work. For a reasoning workload where prompts carry long few-shot scaffolds, this is the quantity that decides responsiveness, and it is why the next chapters care about prefix caching (skip re-prefilling shared scaffolds) and chunked prefill (spread a long prefill so it does not freeze other streams). The roofline thus frames both ends of a request: prefill is a compute bill proportional to prompt length, decode is a bandwidth bill proportional to output length, and every serving feature downstream is an attempt to lower one bill without inflating the other.
The ceiling assumes batch size 1 and short context. Two things erode it as you scale up. (1) As context grows, the KV cache read per token grows too, so increases and tok/s per sequence falls; that is the subject of the next chapter. (2) Batching multiple sequences amortizes the weight read across many tokens, raising decode's arithmetic intensity and total throughput, which is why continuous batching exists. Per-sequence latency and aggregate throughput are different axes; do not quote one when you mean the other.
Tooling
There is no exotic tool here, and that is the point. The roofline is arithmetic, so the "tool" is a small Python module that (a) computes the theoretical ceiling from datasheet constants and a model's config, and (b) drives a real vLLM (or raw transformers) generation to measure prefill and decode rates separately. The measurement trick that separates the phases is time-to-first-token versus inter-token latency:
- The wall-clock time from request send to the first token back is dominated by prefill. Divide prompt length by that time to estimate prefill tok/s.
- The steady-state time between subsequent tokens is decode. Its reciprocal is decode tok/s.
I will build the full measurement harness properly in the benchmarking chapter. Here I want the minimum that lets me put a dot on the roofline and see how far under the roof I am.
The trick that isolates prefill from decode is that a streaming API hands back tokens as they are produced, so I can timestamp each one. The gap between sending the request and the first chunk is almost entirely prefill plus a little queueing, because nothing streams until the whole prompt has been processed and the first token sampled. Every subsequent gap is one decode step. So a single streamed request yields both measurements at once: divide prompt length by the first gap for a prefill-rate estimate, and take the reciprocal of the median later gap for the decode rate. The estimate is rough (the first gap includes sampling and any queue wait, and my prompt-token count is approximate until the server reports usage), but it is good enough to place a dot on the roofline, which is all this lab needs. The benchmarking chapter replaces the approximations with the server's own TTFT and TPOT histograms.
Lab: measure both phases and plot against the ceiling
The artifact is a matplotlib figure, roofline.png, with the derived decode ceiling drawn as a horizontal line and my measured prefill and decode throughputs plotted as points. Everything is uv-managed and self-contained.
Set up the project
uv init roofline-lab
cd roofline-lab
uv add "vllm>=0.6" matplotlib numpy openai
The ceiling calculator
"""Derive the decode throughput ceiling from datasheet constants.
Ceiling = memory_bandwidth / bytes_read_per_token.
For short context, bytes_read_per_token ~= model weight bytes.
"""
from dataclasses import dataclass
# RTX 5080 GDDR7 datasheet: 256-bit bus, 30 Gbps/pin -> ~960 GB/s.
# Record the exact value and date from your card's spec sheet.
MEM_BANDWIDTH_BYTES_PER_S = 960e9
@dataclass
class ModelSpec:
name: str
params: float # total parameter count
bytes_per_param: float # 2.0 BF16, ~0.56 AWQ-4bit, ~0.53 MXFP4
active_params: float | None = None # for MoE; None => dense
attn_bytes: float = 0.0 # MoE only: attention + router read per token,
# kept in higher precision than the MXFP4 experts
def read_bytes_per_token(self) -> float:
p = self.active_params if self.active_params is not None else self.params
return p * self.bytes_per_param + self.attn_bytes
def decode_ceiling_tok_s(self) -> float:
return MEM_BANDWIDTH_BYTES_PER_S / self.read_bytes_per_token()
REPERTOIRE = [
ModelSpec("Qwen3-8B BF16", params=8.2e9, bytes_per_param=2.0),
ModelSpec("Qwen3-14B AWQ", params=14.8e9, bytes_per_param=0.56),
# experts: 3.6e9 * 0.53 = 1.91e9 B; + ~0.59e9 B attention/router in higher
# precision -> ~2.5e9 B/token, matching the ~384 tok/s derivation in the prose.
ModelSpec("gpt-oss-20b MXFP4", params=21e9, bytes_per_param=0.53,
active_params=3.6e9, attn_bytes=0.59e9),
]
if __name__ == "__main__":
for m in REPERTOIRE:
print(f"{m.name:22s} read={m.read_bytes_per_token()/1e9:5.2f} GB/tok"
f" ceiling={m.decode_ceiling_tok_s():6.1f} tok/s")
Run it to print the ceilings before touching the GPU:
uv run python ceiling.py
The two-phase measurement
This script sends one request to a running vLLM OpenAI-compatible server with streaming enabled, records the timestamp of every chunk, and splits prefill from decode. Start the server in another terminal first (the ops chapter justifies every flag). Qwen3-8B does not fit in full BF16 on this 16GB card (chapter 2 works the budget), so the lab serves it with FP8 weights, which halves the weight read and leaves a small but usable KV pool:
uv run vllm serve Qwen/Qwen3-8B --quantization fp8 \
--max-model-len 8192 --gpu-memory-utilization 0.92
"""Measure prefill vs decode tok/s against a streaming vLLM server."""
import time
import argparse
from openai import OpenAI
PROMPT = (
"Explain, step by step, why decode is memory-bandwidth-bound while "
"prefill is compute-bound on a modern GPU. Be thorough.\n"
) * 20 # ~500+ tokens so prefill sits above the ~470 ridge and is compute-bound
def measure(model: str, base_url: str, max_tokens: int = 256):
client = OpenAI(base_url=base_url, api_key="EMPTY")
# Rough prompt-token estimate; the server reports usage for the real count.
approx_prompt_tokens = len(PROMPT.split())
t_send = time.perf_counter()
t_first = None
chunk_times = []
stream = client.chat.completions.create(
model=model,
messages=[{"role": "user", "content": PROMPT}],
max_tokens=max_tokens,
temperature=0.0,
stream=True,
)
for chunk in stream:
if not chunk.choices or chunk.choices[0].delta.content is None:
continue
now = time.perf_counter()
if t_first is None:
t_first = now
chunk_times.append(now)
ttft = t_first - t_send # prefill-dominated
decode_span = chunk_times[-1] - t_first # steady-state decode
n_decode = len(chunk_times) - 1
prefill_tok_s = approx_prompt_tokens / ttft
decode_tok_s = n_decode / decode_span if decode_span > 0 else float("nan")
print(f"TTFT : {ttft*1000:8.1f} ms")
print(f"prefill tok/s (est): {prefill_tok_s:8.1f} (prompt~{approx_prompt_tokens} tok)")
print(f"decode tok/s : {decode_tok_s:8.1f} ({n_decode} tokens)")
return prefill_tok_s, decode_tok_s
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--model", default="Qwen/Qwen3-8B")
ap.add_argument("--base-url", default="http://localhost:8000/v1")
args = ap.parse_args()
measure(args.model, args.base_url)
The plot
"""Plot measured prefill/decode throughput against the derived ceiling."""
import argparse
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from ceiling import ModelSpec
def main(model_name, params, bytes_per_param, prefill_tok_s, decode_tok_s,
out="roofline.png", active_params=None):
spec = ModelSpec(model_name, params, bytes_per_param, active_params)
ceiling = spec.decode_ceiling_tok_s()
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(7, 4.5))
ax.axhline(ceiling, color="crimson", ls="--", lw=2,
label=f"decode ceiling = BW / bytes_read = {ceiling:.0f} tok/s")
ax.bar(["prefill (est)", "decode (measured)"],
[prefill_tok_s, decode_tok_s],
color=["#4c78a8", "#59a14f"], width=0.55)
ax.set_ylabel("tokens / second")
ax.set_title(f"{model_name}: measured throughput vs roofline ceiling")
ax.set_yscale("log")
ax.set_ylim(bottom=1) # log scale has no zero; set a positive floor for the bars
for i, v in enumerate([prefill_tok_s, decode_tok_s]):
ax.text(i, v, f"{v:.0f}", ha="center", va="bottom")
ax.legend(loc="upper right", fontsize=8)
fig.tight_layout()
fig.savefig(out, dpi=150)
print(f"wrote {out}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--model", default="Qwen3-8B BF16")
ap.add_argument("--params", type=float, default=8.2e9)
ap.add_argument("--bpp", type=float, default=2.0)
ap.add_argument("--prefill", type=float, required=True)
ap.add_argument("--decode", type=float, required=True)
args = ap.parse_args()
main(args.model, args.params, args.bpp, args.prefill, args.decode)
Wire it together: measure, then plug the two numbers into the plot.
uv run python measure.py --model Qwen/Qwen3-8B
# read off prefill/decode tok/s, then (FP8 weights => 1 byte/param):
uv run python plot.py --bpp 1.0 --prefill 2100 --decode 95 # example placeholders
What you should see
roofline.png lands on disk with a red dashed line at the derived ceiling (about 117 tok/s for Qwen3-8B served with FP8 weights, half the read of the BF16 arithmetic above) and two bars. The prefill bar should tower far above the ceiling line, on the order of thousands of tok/s, because prefill lives on the compute roof and the ceiling shown is the decode ceiling, not the compute one. The decode bar should sit just under the red line: close enough to confirm the model is memory-bound as predicted, with a visible gap that represents kernel overhead, sampling cost, and the KV read that my short-context approximation ignored. If the decode bar were to exceed the ceiling, I would have a bug in my byte accounting or my bandwidth constant, because you cannot read weights faster than the bus allows. On the baseline machine, record the exact prefill and decode tok/s, the date, and the driver version alongside the figure; those become the first row of the inference baseline that Part II carries forward.
flowchart LR
A[Request in] --> B[Prefill: whole prompt<br/>compute-bound, I ~ S]
B --> C[First token + full KV cache]
C --> D[Decode step: 1 token<br/>bandwidth-bound, I ~ 1]
D --> D
D --> E[Response out]
"Your GPU is barely working when it writes." The counterintuitive hook: a 16GB gaming card renders a chain-of-thought at maybe fifty tokens a second not because it is out of math, but because its tensor cores sit ~99% idle waiting on the memory bus. Decode reads the entire model once per token and does almost no arithmetic with it, so the only number that sets your reasoning-model speed is memory bandwidth divided by model size. One equation, tok/s = bandwidth / bytes-per-token, predicts why 4-bit quantization makes a bigger model faster than a smaller 16-bit one, and why mixture-of-experts feels like a magic trick. A short post that turns the roofline from an HPC curiosity into the single mental model that governs every serving choice you will ever make.
KV cache arithmetic
The last chapter ended on a threat: as context grows, the KV cache read per token grows with it, and per-sequence throughput falls. This chapter cashes that threat out to the byte. The KV cache is the single most important number in single-GPU serving, because on a 16GB card the weights eat most of the memory and whatever is left is the entire budget you have for context and concurrency. Get the arithmetic right and you can predict, before launching a server, exactly how many sequences you can run at once and how long each one's context can be. Get it wrong and vLLM greets you with an out-of-memory error thirty seconds after boot.
Theory
What the cache stores, and why
Attention at position needs the keys and values of every previous position . Recomputing them each step would make decode quadratic in sequence length. Instead we compute each position's K and V once, during prefill or at the step that produced it, and cache them. Decode then reads the stored K and V and appends one new pair per layer. The cache trades memory for compute, and on this machine memory is the scarce resource, so the trade needs auditing. Without the cache, generating token would recompute the K and V of all prior positions at every step, making the total decode cost scale with the square of the sequence length; with it, each position's K and V are computed exactly once and then only read. The cache is therefore not an optimization you can toggle off on a whim, it is what makes autoregressive decoding linear instead of quadratic, and the price for that linearity is paid entirely in VRAM.
The exact per-token byte formula
For one token, one layer stores a K vector and a V vector, each of dimension (number of KV heads) times (head dimension). With grouped-query attention (GQA), the number of KV heads is smaller than the number of attention heads, which is the first big lever on cache size. Summing over all layers, and counting both K and V:
where is the number of transformer layers, the number of KV heads, the head dimension, the bytes per element (2 for BF16/FP16, 1 for FP8), and the leading 2 counts keys and values. That is the whole formula. Everything else is plugging in a model's config.json.
The formula needs exactly four fields, all present in any Hugging Face model's config.json: num_hidden_layers (), num_key_value_heads (), head_dim (, or hidden_size / num_attention_heads if absent), and the KV cache dtype you intend to serve with. Open the config for each model in the repertoire and confirm the values I use below before trusting any budget I derive; model revisions change these.
Working the repertoire
I will use these config values (verify them with the read-along; they are from each model's published config):
| Model | KV dtype | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-8B | 36 | 8 | 128 | BF16 (2 B) |
| Qwen3-14B | 40 | 8 | 128 | BF16 (2 B) |
| gpt-oss-20b | 24 | 8 | 64 | BF16 (2 B) |
Qwen3-8B, BF16.
Qwen3-14B, BF16.
gpt-oss-20b, BF16 (ignoring its sliding-window layers, see the gotcha).
So one 32,768-token context on Qwen3-8B costs of cache for a single sequence. On a 16GB card that is enormous relative to what is left after the weights, which is the crux of this chapter.
Notice what GQA bought. Qwen3-8B has 32 attention heads but only 8 KV heads, a 4x reduction. Without GQA the cache would be larger, 576 KiB/token, and a single full-context sequence would need 18 GiB, more than the whole card. GQA is not a minor optimization; it is what makes long-context serving on 16GB possible at all.
The context-length vs concurrency tradeoff
The KV budget is a fixed pool of bytes. Call it . You spend it on the product of concurrency and context length:
Rearranged, the maximum number of concurrent sequences you can hold, each at context :
This is a hyperbola: double the context you promise each request and you halve how many requests you can serve at once. There is no free parameter here; the only way to move the curve is to shrink (fewer KV heads, or a smaller KV dtype) or grow (a smaller/quantized model that frees VRAM).
The hyperbola is worth sitting with because it is the single most consequential shape in single-GPU serving, and it is unforgiving. Suppose I have a 6 GiB pool and a model costing 160 KiB/token. A request stream where everyone uses 2K of context lets me hold about nineteen sequences at once; stretch the promised context to 8K and I am down to four; promise the full 32K and I hold exactly one. The advertised context window and the advertised concurrency are not two independent product decisions I get to make separately, they are the same fixed budget read off two axes, and every honest capacity claim has to name both. A server that says "32K context" and "16 concurrent users" in the same breath, on a pool that only supports their product, is writing a check the KV allocator will bounce. Worse, the failure is not graceful by default: admit too many long requests and vLLM starts preempting (the next chapter's subject), trading throughput for the privilege of not crashing. The way out is to decide the operating point deliberately, size --max-model-len and --max-num-seqs from this inequality, and let the arithmetic, not optimism, set the numbers.
FP8 KV cache
The cleanest lever available at serve time is the KV dtype. Storing K and V in FP8 (e4m3 or e5m2) instead of BF16 halves from 2 to 1, which halves and therefore doubles either concurrency or context for the same pool. Qwen3-8B drops from 144 to 72 KiB/token; a full 32K context falls from 4.5 to 2.25 GiB.
The cost is precision in the cached activations. K and V are activations, not weights, and attention is fairly tolerant of their quantization because the softmax is a smoothing operation and the scores are dominated by a few large logits. FP8 KV typically moves eval metrics by a fraction of a point (measure it; the quantization chapter's harness is the tool). The e4m3 variant (4 exponent, 3 mantissa bits) is the usual choice for KV because K and V values are well-behaved in range; e5m2 trades mantissa for range and is rarely needed here. In vLLM the flag is --kv-cache-dtype fp8, and on Blackwell it maps to native FP8 tensor support.
gpt-oss-20b alternates sliding-window attention layers (window ~128 tokens) with full-attention layers. The sliding-window layers never cache more than the window, so their per-token contribution saturates and the naive formula overcounts the cache at long context. My 48 KiB/token figure treats every layer as full-attention, which is an upper bound. The real long-context cache is smaller and grows more slowly. When you budget for gpt-oss, treat 48 KiB/token as a conservative ceiling and let vLLM's actual allocation (it knows the attention pattern) be the truth. Always confirm against the server's reported number of KV blocks at boot.
The card has 16 GiB. vLLM reserves a fraction via --gpu-memory-utilization (default 0.90); the rest holds weights, activations/CUDA-graph overhead, and the KV pool. Approximate activation + overhead as ~1 GiB (measure it; record value, date, driver). The KV pool is what remains:
Qwen3-8B at BF16 (, ). At util=0.95 the budget is : the weights plus overhead already exceed what vLLM may claim, so there is no KV pool left at all. Shortening --max-model-len or switching to FP8 KV cannot rescue this, because those only shrink a KV pool that is already negative; the weights themselves are the problem, and lowering --gpu-memory-utilization gives less memory, not more. The honest conclusion is that Qwen3-8B does not fit in BF16 on 16GB: serve it with FP8 weights (halving the weight footprint to ~7.7 GiB and opening a real KV pool) or drop it from the repertoire. This is the honest reason the repertoire leans on the 4-bit 14B.
| max ctx | KV per seq (BF16) | KV per seq (FP8) |
|---|---|---|
| 4,096 | 0.56 GiB | 0.28 GiB |
| 8,192 | 1.12 GiB | 0.56 GiB |
| 16,384 | 2.25 GiB | 1.12 GiB |
| 32,768 | 4.50 GiB | 2.25 GiB |
Qwen3-14B at AWQ 4-bit (, ). At util=0.92 the pool is , a comfortable budget. This is why AWQ is the workhorse: quantizing the weights frees several GiB that become KV cache, i.e. concurrency and context.
| max ctx | KV per seq (BF16 KV) | max concurrent seqs at that ctx |
|---|---|---|
| 4,096 | 0.625 GiB | |
| 8,192 | 1.25 GiB | |
| 16,384 | 2.50 GiB | |
| 32,768 | 5.00 GiB |
Every number here is derived; the ~1 GiB overhead and the exact weight sizes are the placeholders to pin down on the machine. Record measured values with date and driver.
The 14B-AWQ table is the whole argument for the format choice in one place. At a 4K context I can hold nine concurrent reasoning traces; stretch to 32K and I am down to one. The concurrency I can advertise and the context I can promise are the same budget viewed from two ends, and the KV formula is the exchange rate between them.
The cost of reasoning traces specifically
There is a reason this arithmetic bites harder for reasoning models than for chat models, and it is worth naming because the whole thesis is about reasoning. A chat model answers in a few hundred tokens; a reasoning model thinks out loud, and a hard problem can run its chain of thought to thousands of tokens before it emits a final answer. Every one of those thinking tokens is a position that must be cached, so the effective context per request is not the prompt length, it is the prompt plus the entire trace. On Qwen3-8B at 144 KiB/token, a 4,000-token reasoning trace on top of a 1,000-token prompt occupies of cache for that one sequence, and it grows as the trace unfolds. This is why the concurrency I can sustain for a reasoning workload is lower than a chat benchmark would suggest, and why FP8 KV is so tempting here: the model that most needs long context is exactly the one whose cache I most want to halve. When Part III runs an eval suite that lets models reason to completion, the KV budget, not the compute, is what caps how many problems I can grade in parallel.
KV cache in the roofline: the read grows with context
One more connection back to chapter 1 closes the loop. The decode ceiling was , and I approximated as just the weight bytes for short context. That approximation frays as the trace lengthens, because each decode step must also read the entire KV cache for the current context. At position the extra read is , so a Qwen3-8B sequence at 8,000 tokens of context adds of KV read per token, on top of the ~16.4 GB of weights. At that context the KV read is a small fraction of the weight read, so the per-token ceiling barely moves; but push to very long contexts, or batch many long sequences, and the KV read starts to dominate and decode slows measurably as the conversation grows. This is the mechanism behind the familiar experience of a long chat getting sluggish near the end: you are not imagining it, the bytes-read-per-token is genuinely climbing, and the KV formula is what quantifies the slowdown.
Tooling
vLLM does this accounting internally and prints the result at startup. Recent vLLM (the V1 engine) reports it directly as a line like GPU KV cache size: N tokens; older V0 builds instead print the number of GPU KV cache blocks (vLLM allocates the cache in fixed-size blocks, typically 16 tokens each; the next chapter dissects why), which you multiply by the block size to get total cached tokens. Either way the total is from the formula. The relevant flags:
--max-model-len: the per-sequence context ceiling . Lowering it shrinks the worst-case reservation and lets vLLM admit more sequences.--max-num-seqs: a hard cap on concurrent sequences , independent of memory. vLLM takes the min of this and what the KV pool allows.--gpu-memory-utilization: sets the fraction of the 16 GiB vLLM may claim, hence .--kv-cache-dtype fp8: halves .
The verification loop is: compute by hand, launch with generous --max-num-seqs, read the block count vLLM prints, convert to sequences, and check it against my prediction.
Lab: predict max concurrency, then verify in vLLM
The artifact is kv_report.json: my hand-derived prediction next to vLLM's reported capacity, so the two can be diffed.
Set up
uv init kv-lab && cd kv-lab
uv add "vllm>=0.6" requests
Predict from config
"""Predict max concurrent sequences from config.json + a VRAM budget."""
import json, argparse
def kv_bytes_per_token(layers, kv_heads, head_dim, dtype_bytes):
return 2 * layers * kv_heads * head_dim * dtype_bytes
def predict(layers, kv_heads, head_dim, dtype_bytes, kv_pool_gib, ctx):
btok = kv_bytes_per_token(layers, kv_heads, head_dim, dtype_bytes)
pool = kv_pool_gib * (1024**3)
per_seq = ctx * btok
return {
"kv_bytes_per_token": btok,
"kv_kib_per_token": round(btok / 1024, 1),
"ctx": ctx,
"kv_gib_per_seq": round(per_seq / (1024**3), 3),
"predicted_max_seqs": int(pool // per_seq),
"predicted_total_tokens": int(pool // btok),
}
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--layers", type=int, required=True)
ap.add_argument("--kv-heads", type=int, required=True)
ap.add_argument("--head-dim", type=int, required=True)
ap.add_argument("--dtype-bytes", type=float, default=2.0)
ap.add_argument("--kv-pool-gib", type=float, required=True,
help="VRAM left for KV after weights+overhead (derive from vram-budget)")
ap.add_argument("--ctx", type=int, default=8192)
args = ap.parse_args()
print(json.dumps(predict(args.layers, args.kv_heads, args.head_dim,
args.dtype_bytes, args.kv_pool_gib, args.ctx), indent=2))
For Qwen3-14B AWQ with a ~5.9 GiB pool at 8K context:
uv run python predict.py --layers 40 --kv-heads 8 --head-dim 128 \
--dtype-bytes 2 --kv-pool-gib 5.9 --ctx 8192
# predicted_max_seqs: 4 (matches the vram-budget table)
Verify against vLLM
Launch the server and let it report its real KV capacity:
uv run vllm serve Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ --quantization awq_marlin \
--max-model-len 8192 --max-num-seqs 32 \
--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92 2>&1 | tee serve.log
At startup vLLM logs its KV capacity. Recent vLLM (V1) prints a line like GPU KV cache size: 47,360 tokens; older V0 builds print # GPU blocks: 2960, # CPU blocks: .... This script parses either format (tokens directly on V1, or blocks times the block size on V0) and computes vLLM's implied max sequences, then writes the comparison report:
"""Parse vLLM's reported KV blocks and compare to the hand prediction."""
import re, json, argparse
from predict import predict
BLOCK_SIZE = 16 # vLLM default tokens/block; confirm in your serve.log
def parse_cached_tokens(logpath):
"""Return total cached tokens, handling both vLLM log formats.
V1 logs 'GPU KV cache size: N tokens' -> N is already tokens, use directly.
V0 logs '# GPU blocks: N' -> N is blocks, multiply by block size.
Do NOT multiply the V1 'tokens' number by the block size (a 16x overcount).
"""
tokens_pat = re.compile(r"GPU KV cache size[:=]?\s*([\d,]+)\s*tokens", re.I)
blocks_pat = re.compile(r"GPU blocks[:=]?\s*([\d,]+)", re.I)
with open(logpath) as f:
for line in f:
m = tokens_pat.search(line)
if m:
return int(m.group(1).replace(",", "")) # already tokens
m = blocks_pat.search(line)
if m:
return int(m.group(1).replace(",", "")) * BLOCK_SIZE # blocks -> tokens
raise SystemExit("Could not find a GPU KV cache line; check serve.log format.")
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--log", default="serve.log")
ap.add_argument("--ctx", type=int, default=8192)
ap.add_argument("--layers", type=int, default=40)
ap.add_argument("--kv-heads", type=int, default=8)
ap.add_argument("--head-dim", type=int, default=128)
ap.add_argument("--dtype-bytes", type=float, default=2.0)
ap.add_argument("--kv-pool-gib", type=float, default=5.9)
args = ap.parse_args()
total_cached_tokens = parse_cached_tokens(args.log)
vllm_max_seqs = total_cached_tokens // args.ctx
pred = predict(args.layers, args.kv_heads, args.head_dim,
args.dtype_bytes, args.kv_pool_gib, args.ctx)
report = {
"prediction": pred,
"vllm_total_cached_tokens": total_cached_tokens,
"vllm_implied_max_seqs_at_ctx": int(vllm_max_seqs),
"agreement": f"{pred['predicted_max_seqs']} predicted vs "
f"{int(vllm_max_seqs)} observed",
}
with open("kv_report.json", "w") as f:
json.dump(report, f, indent=2)
print(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
uv run python verify.py --log serve.log --ctx 8192
What you should see
kv_report.json on disk with two numbers that should land within one or two sequences of each other. My hand calculation for Qwen3-14B AWQ at 8K context predicts 4 concurrent sequences; vLLM's reported KV capacity (tokens directly on V1, or GPU blocks times the 16-token block size on V0) should imply roughly the same total cached tokens and therefore about the same sequence count. A small discrepancy is expected and instructive: vLLM's real overhead is not exactly my 1 GiB estimate, and it rounds context up to whole blocks, so its usable pool differs slightly from my back-of-envelope . If the numbers are wildly apart (say I predicted 4 and it reports capacity for 20), the likely culprit is a wrong --gpu-memory-utilization assumption or an I read from the wrong config revision; go back and re-pull the four fields. When they agree, I have earned the right to size context and concurrency from arithmetic alone, before ever launching a server, which is exactly the muscle the rest of Part II leans on. Record the measured block count, the derived pool size, date, and driver next to the file.
"The 4 GiB sentence that decides your context length." Everyone quotes context windows like they are free. On a 16GB GPU they are anything but: one 32K-token conversation on an 8B model reserves 4.5 GiB of pure cache, computed from four integers in a config file (layers times KV-heads times head-dim times two, times two for keys and values). This post turns that one formula into a planning tool. It shows why grouped-query attention is the unsung hero that makes long context fit at all, why 4-bit weights buy you concurrency rather than just speed, and how an FP8 KV cache doubles your seats for a fraction of a percentage point of accuracy. The reader leaves able to answer, on a napkin, "how many users can this box hold at once?" before spending a cent on a server.
Quantization: theory and formats
The last two chapters kept arriving at the same verdict: on 16GB, weight bytes are the tyrant. They set the decode ceiling (bandwidth over bytes-per-token) and they crowd out the KV cache. Quantization is the one lever that attacks both at once. Store weights in 4 bits instead of 16 and you read a quarter of the bytes per token (faster decode) and you free three quarters of the weight footprint (more KV, more concurrency). The catch is that you are throwing away information, and the entire craft is throwing it away where the model will not miss it. This chapter builds the error theory from scratch, then explains AWQ, GPTQ, FP8, and MXFP4 both conceptually and mathematically, and finishes by measuring the perplexity cost of two schemes on a real model.
Theory
Uniform quantization and its error
The simplest quantizer maps a real value in some range onto one of evenly spaced levels. Pick a scale (the spacing between levels) and, optionally, a zero-point offset . Symmetric uniform quantization (no offset) is:
with clamped to the representable integer range . The reconstructed differs from by the rounding error . Because rounding sends to the nearest multiple of , the error lies in .
Model the rounding error as uniform on , a good approximation when is small relative to the signal's variation. A uniform distribution on an interval of width has variance:
So the mean-squared quantization error is : it grows with the square of the step size. Now tie to the bit budget. If the values span a range and we have levels, then and:
Each bit added halves , which quarters the error variance, i.e. +6 dB of signal-to-quantization-noise per bit. This is the fundamental exchange rate of quantization, and it tells you two things at once: dropping from 16-bit to 4-bit is a 12-bit reduction and a huge nominal error increase, so the only way it works is if is kept tiny, per small group of weights, so that the absolute step stays small even at 4 bits.
That last clause is the whole game. The error is . You cannot afford more bits , so you must shrink the range over which any single scale applies. That is what group-wise scaling does.
It is worth pausing on the numbers to feel how brutal the 16-bit to 4-bit drop is before group-wise scaling rescues it. Going from to is a factor of increase in error variance for a fixed range . If you applied one scale across a whole weight matrix whose values span, say, a range of 2.0, the 4-bit step would be , coarse enough to visibly wreck the model. Now shrink the range to a 128-weight group where the local span might be 0.2, and the step drops to , a tenfold improvement from range reduction alone, at the same 4 bits. That is the entire reason 4-bit inference is viable: not because 4 bits is inherently enough, but because a well-chosen local range makes 4 bits behave like many more. The refinements below (AWQ, GPTQ, MXFP4) are all further attacks on the same quantity, either shrinking the effective range for the weights that matter or repairing the error the fixed grid leaves behind.
Group-wise scales
A per-tensor scale forces one across millions of weights whose magnitudes vary wildly; a single outlier inflates and blows up the step for everyone. Group-wise quantization partitions each weight matrix into small contiguous groups (typically 64 or 128 weights) and gives each group its own scale (and optionally zero-point). A weight in group becomes:
Now is the dynamic range within a 128-weight neighborhood, not the whole tensor, so the effective step is far smaller and the error much lower for the same bit width. The cost is storage: each group carries a scale (usually FP16). For a group size of 128 that adds bits per weight, and an asymmetric zero-point adds a similar increment, so "4-bit" AWQ or GPTQ actually costs about 4.13 to 4.25 effective bits per parameter (the symmetric, scale-only floor is ). Footprint budgeting in the KV chapter rounds this up to a conservative ~4.25 to 4.5 bits (0.56 byte/param) to leave margin for packing and alignment overhead.
Group size is a real knob. Smaller groups (64) mean lower error but more scale overhead and slower kernels; larger groups (128, 256) are leaner and faster but let outliers back in. 128 is the near-universal default because it sits at the knee of that tradeoff. If a quantized model is unexpectedly degraded, checking the group size is a cheap first move.
Where the error actually hurts: outliers and activations
Here is the fact that separates naive quantization from the good schemes. Transformer weight matrices are not the problem; their activations are. A handful of hidden dimensions carry systematically large activation magnitudes (the "outlier features"), and the product is what feeds the next layer. Quantizing uniformly treats every weight column as equally important, but a weight column that multiplies a large-magnitude activation channel contributes far more to the output error than one that multiplies a near-zero channel. Uniform quantization is blind to this; the smart schemes are not.
AWQ: activation-aware weight quantization
AWQ's insight is that not all weights matter equally, and the ones that matter are identifiable from activation statistics. If a weight column is multiplied by a large-magnitude input channel, protecting that column's precision protects the output. AWQ protects it not by giving it more bits (the format is fixed at 4) but by scaling it up before quantizing and scaling the activation down to compensate, which pushes the important weights into a range where the fixed step size represents them more faithfully.
Consider one output: . Insert a per-channel scale : rewrite . Quantize the scaled weight and fold into the (already small) activation quantization or the preceding layernorm, which is cheap. The reconstructed output is:
The quantization error on channel is . Scaling up a channel by shrinks its relative rounding error (the step is fixed, the value is larger), and the on the activation side is applied in high precision, so the important channels come out cleaner. AWQ chooses the scales to minimize the output reconstruction error, searching over a scale parametrized by the channel's activation magnitude:
where is the mean absolute activation on channel (measured on a small calibration set) and is a single scalar swept per layer. So AWQ needs calibration data only to estimate ; it never touches the labels and never backpropagates. It is a cheap, data-light, forward-only method, which is exactly why it is my default for the 14B.
GPTQ: second-order weight quantization
GPTQ comes at the same goal from a different mathematical direction. Instead of rescaling channels, it quantizes weights one column at a time and compensates the remaining, not-yet-quantized weights for the error just introduced, using second-order (curvature) information about the loss.
GPTQ descends from Optimal Brain Surgeon. The layer's objective is to keep the output close: minimize over quantized . The Hessian of this quadratic in the weights of one row is , the (scaled) input covariance. When you quantize weight to , incurring error , OBS says the optimal way to absorb that error into the remaining weights is:
i.e. push a correction into the surviving weights proportional to the inverse-Hessian column, so the output stays as close as possible. GPTQ applies this greedily column by column, using a Cholesky factorization of to make the sweep efficient. The calibration data enters through : GPTQ needs it to estimate the input covariance, more heavily than AWQ uses its activation means.
Conceptually: AWQ reshapes the weights before rounding so the fixed grid fits the important ones; GPTQ rounds greedily and repairs the damage using curvature. AWQ is cheaper, more robust to calibration-set choice, and tends to hold up better at low bit widths for the models in this repertoire; GPTQ can be marginally more accurate when its Hessian estimate is good but is fussier. Both land near 4.13 to 4.25 effective bits and both are served by vLLM through Marlin kernels.
FP8: floating point, not integer
Integer quantization spends its bits on a uniform grid. FP8 spends them on a floating-point grid: a sign, a few exponent bits, a few mantissa bits. The e4m3 format (1 sign, 4 exponent, 3 mantissa) gives non-uniform spacing, fine near zero and coarse for large magnitudes, which matches how neural network values are distributed (many small, few large). FP8 does not need group scales to handle dynamic range because the exponent handles range for free; it is the natural format for activations and the KV cache, and on Blackwell it has native tensor-core support. Weights at FP8 (8 bits) are less aggressive than 4-bit integer schemes, so on this card FP8 is where I reach for KV cache and activation precision, while INT4-group (AWQ) is where I reach for weight compression.
MXFP4: microscaling 4-bit, and gpt-oss
MXFP4 is the format gpt-oss-20b ships in, and it is a clever hybrid of the two ideas above. It is a 4-bit floating-point element format (e2m1: 1 sign, 2 exponent, 1 mantissa) combined with a shared micro-exponent scale per block of 32 elements. So each element is a tiny 4-bit float, and every group of 32 shares an 8-bit exponent scale. This is group-wise scaling (small block, shared scale) married to a floating-point element (non-uniform grid), and the block of 32 is small enough that the shared scale keeps effective range tight. The upshot is roughly 4.25 bits per parameter with better outlier tolerance than INT4 at the same budget, which is why a 21B-parameter MoE fits and serves comfortably on 16GB. The relevant point for operations is that MXFP4 is a native checkpoint format for gpt-oss (I do not quantize it myself; it arrives that way) and vLLM serves it directly on Blackwell.
The reason all these 4-bit schemes are fast and not just small is the dequantize-in-the-kernel trick. Weights sit in VRAM as 4-bit packed integers plus scales; the matmul kernel (Marlin for INT4, native FP4 paths for MXFP4 on Blackwell) loads the packed weights, dequantizes them to BF16/FP8 inside the streaming multiprocessor registers, and multiplies, all without ever writing dequantized weights back to memory. That is what makes quantization move the decode ceiling: the bytes read from VRAM are the 4-bit ones, so bandwidth-bound decode genuinely reads a quarter of the data. If the kernel dequantized to VRAM first, you would pay full 16-bit bandwidth and gain nothing on decode speed.
What degrades, and where
Quantization error is not spread evenly across capabilities. Broad, redundant knowledge (common facts, fluent syntax) is robust; the model has many pathways to it. Narrow, precise operations degrade first: multi-step arithmetic, long-chain reasoning where a single wrong token derails the trace, exact format-following, and rare-token recall. For reasoning models this is exactly the sensitive spot, so a quantization that looks fine on perplexity can still lose points on a math eval. The rule I hold to for the thesis: perplexity is a smoke test, task accuracy is the verdict. Perplexity catches gross breakage cheaply; the eval suite in Part III catches the reasoning-specific damage that perplexity misses.
The four formats, side by side
It helps to hold the repertoire's formats in one frame. Each is a different answer to "spend the bits on what?"
| Format | Element | Bits/param (eff.) | Scale granularity | Best for | In the repertoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BF16 | float | 16 | none | reference fidelity | Qwen3-8B weights |
| INT4 group (AWQ/GPTQ) | integer | ~4.13-4.25 | per 128-weight group | weight compression | Qwen3-14B weights |
| FP8 e4m3 | float | 8 | per-tensor/channel | activations, KV cache | KV cache option |
| MXFP4 | float e2m1 | ~4.25 | per 32-element block | outlier-tolerant 4-bit | gpt-oss-20b weights |
The pattern reading down the table: integer formats spend a uniform grid and lean on group scales to survive; floating formats spend an exponent to handle range for free, which is why FP8 needs no group scales and why MXFP4 tolerates outliers better than INT4 at the same bit count. There is no universally best format; there is a best format for a given tensor's role and a given hardware's native kernels. On Blackwell all four have fast paths, which is what makes the whole repertoire practical on one card.
Tooling
Two toolchains cover the repertoire. For AWQ and GPTQ, llm-compressor (the maintained successor to AutoAWQ/AutoGPTQ, from the vLLM/Neural Magic side) produces vLLM-loadable checkpoints and runs the calibration forward passes. For measuring the damage, I compute perplexity on a held-out text with a short transformers loop, and (in Part III) run the real task suite. Calibration data matters: use a few hundred sequences of text that resembles the serving distribution (for a reasoning model, include chain-of-thought-style text), because AWQ's activation means and GPTQ's Hessian are only as representative as the calibration set. A tiny or off-distribution calibration set is a common cause of avoidable degradation.
Lab: quantize a small model two ways, measure the perplexity delta
The card cannot quantize a 14B comfortably for a quick lab, so I use a small model to make the mechanism visible and fast; the same commands scale to the repertoire. The artifact is ppl_report.json comparing baseline, AWQ, and GPTQ perplexity.
Set up
uv init quant-lab && cd quant-lab
uv add "llmcompressor>=0.3" "vllm>=0.6" "transformers>=4.45" datasets torch
Quantize both ways
"""Quantize a small model with AWQ and with GPTQ using the same calibration set."""
import argparse
from datasets import load_dataset
from transformers import AutoTokenizer
from llmcompressor.transformers import oneshot
from llmcompressor.modifiers.quantization import GPTQModifier
from llmcompressor.modifiers.awq import AWQModifier
def run(model_id, scheme, out_dir):
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(model_id)
ds = load_dataset("wikitext", "wikitext-2-raw-v1", split="train")
ds = ds.filter(lambda r: len(r["text"]) > 200).select(range(256))
# NOTE: modifier kwargs drift across llmcompressor releases; scheme="W4A16"
# already implies 4-bit weights at group size 128, so bits/group_size are not
# passed separately. Confirm the signature against your installed version, e.g.
# uv run python -c "from llmcompressor.modifiers.awq import AWQModifier; help(AWQModifier)"
if scheme == "awq":
recipe = AWQModifier(targets="Linear", scheme="W4A16", ignore=["lm_head"])
else:
recipe = GPTQModifier(targets="Linear", scheme="W4A16", ignore=["lm_head"])
oneshot(model=model_id, dataset=ds, recipe=recipe,
output_dir=out_dir, max_seq_length=512, num_calibration_samples=256)
print(f"wrote {out_dir}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--model", default="Qwen/Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct")
args = ap.parse_args()
run(args.model, "awq", "out-awq")
run(args.model, "gptq", "out-gptq")
uv run python quantize.py --model Qwen/Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct
Measure perplexity for each
"""Sliding-window perplexity on wikitext-2 test, identical for every model."""
import argparse, json, math, torch
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer
from datasets import load_dataset
@torch.no_grad()
def perplexity(model_path, stride=512, max_len=2048):
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(model_path)
model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(
model_path, torch_dtype="auto", device_map="cuda").eval()
text = "\n\n".join(load_dataset("wikitext", "wikitext-2-raw-v1",
split="test")["text"])
enc = tok(text, return_tensors="pt")
ids = enc.input_ids.to("cuda")
nll, count = 0.0, 0
for begin in range(0, ids.size(1) - 1, stride):
end = min(begin + max_len, ids.size(1))
window = ids[:, begin:end]
target = window.clone()
target[:, :-stride] = -100 # only score the fresh stride
out = model(window, labels=target)
n_tok = (target != -100).sum().item()
nll += out.loss.item() * n_tok
count += n_tok
if end == ids.size(1):
break
return math.exp(nll / count)
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--paths", nargs="+", required=True)
args = ap.parse_args()
report = {p: round(perplexity(p), 4) for p in args.paths}
base = report[args.paths[0]]
for p, v in report.items():
report[p] = {"ppl": v, "delta_vs_base": round(v - base, 4)}
with open("ppl_report.json", "w") as f:
json.dump(report, f, indent=2)
print(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
uv run python perplexity.py --paths Qwen/Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct out-awq out-gptq
What you should see
ppl_report.json lists three perplexities: the BF16 baseline first, then AWQ and GPTQ with their deltas. Both quantized deltas should be small and positive (perplexity rises a little when you throw bits away) and, for a well-behaved model with a decent calibration set, on the order of a few hundredths to a few tenths of a perplexity point. AWQ and GPTQ should land close to each other; which one wins by a hair depends on the calibration set and the model, and it is not worth over-reading a single run. What you must not see is a large jump (perplexity doubling, or NaN): that signals a broken calibration set, a wrong group size, or a layer that should have been left in higher precision. If the deltas look reassuringly tiny, resist the conclusion that quantization is free. Perplexity is the smoke test; the reasoning-specific damage shows up only when the Part III eval suite runs the quantized model on math and multi-step tasks, and that is where I make the real accept/reject call. Record the three perplexities, the calibration set size, the model revision, date, and driver next to the file.
"Where a 4-bit model actually breaks." Quantization gets sold as a free lunch: same model, quarter the memory, barely any accuracy loss. The perplexity numbers even back that up. But perplexity averages over everything, and the damage from dropping to 4 bits is not average, it is targeted. It lands on exactly the operations reasoning models are made of: multi-step arithmetic, long chains where one wrong token dooms the answer, precise format-following. This post walks the error theory (six decibels of noise per bit, and why group-wise scaling is the trick that makes 4 bits survivable), then shows the two dominant schemes as two philosophies: AWQ reshapes the weights so the important ones land cleanly on the grid, GPTQ rounds greedily and repairs the wreckage with curvature. The takeaway a reader can act on: quote task accuracy, never perplexity, when you claim a quantized model is "just as good."
vLLM internals
By now the arithmetic is settled: decode is bandwidth-bound, the KV cache is the memory tyrant, and quantization is the lever. vLLM is the piece of software that turns those facts into a serving engine that actually reaches a large fraction of the roofline. It does so through a handful of ideas that are worth understanding in detail, because every operational flag in the next chapter is an exposed control on one of these mechanisms. This chapter is deliberately under-the-hood-heavy: I want to know what PagedAttention does at the block level, how the scheduler decides what runs each step, why prefix caching and chunked prefill exist, and what the OpenAI-compatible server is actually doing underneath a familiar API. The payoff is not trivia. When a server underperforms its predicted throughput, or OOMs at a context length the arithmetic said should fit, or shows latency spikes under load, the cause is always one of these mechanisms behaving as designed under conditions I did not anticipate. Debugging serving without knowing the internals is guesswork; knowing them turns every symptom into a short list of suspects.
Theory
The problem vLLM was built to kill: KV fragmentation
Before PagedAttention, serving engines allocated each sequence's KV cache as one contiguous block sized to the maximum possible length. If you advertised a 32K context, every admitted request reserved 32K worth of cache up front, even a request that would emit forty tokens. The result was catastrophic internal fragmentation: most of the reserved cache sat empty, and the engine ran out of memory long before it ran out of useful capacity. On a 16GB card, where the KV pool is only a few GiB after weights, this waste is fatal; it is the difference between four concurrent sequences and one.
The fix, PagedAttention, borrows the oldest trick in operating systems: paging. Do not allocate contiguous memory sized to the worst case. Allocate small fixed-size blocks on demand, and keep a table that maps a sequence's logical positions to whatever physical blocks happen to be free.
PagedAttention: blocks and block tables
vLLM carves the KV pool into fixed-size blocks, each holding the keys and values for a fixed number of tokens (the block size, 16 tokens by default). A block's physical size follows the KV formula from chapter 2: for one block, . For Qwen3-8B BF16 that is per block.
Each sequence owns a block table: an array mapping its logical block index (position live in logical block 0, in logical block 1, and so on) to a physical block ID somewhere in the pool. The blocks a sequence uses need not be contiguous in physical memory. When a sequence generates its 17th token and overflows logical block 0, the allocator hands it any free physical block and appends the mapping to its table. When the sequence finishes, its physical blocks return to the free list for immediate reuse.
The attention kernel is written to follow the block table: to compute attention at the current position it gathers K and V from the scattered physical blocks by walking the table, rather than assuming one contiguous span. This indirection is the entire cost of paging, and it is cheap because the gather is coalesced within each block.
Two consequences fall out, and both are large. First, internal fragmentation nearly vanishes: a sequence uses only as many blocks as it has tokens, rounded up to the block size, so waste is at most one partial block (under 16 tokens) per sequence instead of tens of thousands. Second, memory is shared trivially because blocks are the unit of ownership, which sets up prefix caching below.
When one prompt is sampled multiple ways (beam search, or completions), the prefixes are identical, so their KV blocks are identical. vLLM lets the sequences share the same physical blocks for the common prefix by pointing multiple block tables at the same physical IDs, with a reference count. Only when two sequences diverge (different sampled tokens) does the shared block get copied so each can append its own continuation, exactly copy-on-write from OS memory management. This is why generating four samples of a prompt costs far less than four times the prefix memory.
Continuous batching and the scheduler
A naive batch runs to completion together: you gather requests, run them all until the slowest finishes, then start the next batch. Because completions have wildly different lengths, most of the batch sits idle waiting on the longest laggard, and new requests wait for the whole batch to drain. Continuous batching (also called iteration-level scheduling) fixes this by making the batch mutable every decode step.
vLLM's engine runs a loop. Each iteration ("engine step") the scheduler decides which sequences to run for exactly one forward pass, subject to the KV budget:
- It maintains three queues: waiting (admitted, not yet prefilled), running (actively decoding), and swapped/preempted (evicted to free memory).
- At each step it tries to fill the batch. Running sequences that still have KV room continue decoding. If there is spare capacity, it pulls waiting sequences in and schedules their prefill.
- Every admission checks the block allocator: can I allocate the blocks this sequence needs this step? If the pool is full, the sequence waits.
- If a running sequence needs a new block and none is free, the scheduler preempts: it evicts the lowest-priority sequence, freeing physical blocks for the winner. The preempted sequence returns to the queue and resumes when room appears. (The V1 engine preempts by recomputation: it drops the blocks and re-prefills on resume; the swap-to-CPU path and the
Swappedqueue below are a V0 concept, so on V1 the swapped count stays effectively zero and preemption shows up as recompute instead.) - Finished sequences (hit EOS or max tokens) release their blocks immediately, and the freed blocks are available on the very next step.
The effect is that a completed short request leaves the batch the instant it finishes and a waiting request takes its slot the same step, so the GPU stays saturated instead of idling on the longest laggard. This is the mechanism that turns decode's low per-sequence intensity into high aggregate throughput: batching many sequences amortizes each weight read across many tokens, exactly the intensity boost the roofline chapter promised.
The scheduler also decides policy, not just mechanism. By default vLLM schedules first-come-first-served, but it can prioritize by other criteria, and the admission order interacts with prefix caching (batching requests that share a prefix together maximizes cache reuse) and with chunked prefill (deciding how much of the per-step token budget goes to new prefill versus ongoing decode). These are the knobs the operations chapter exposes; the point here is that a single tunable loop, run once per forward pass, is what implements continuous batching, preemption, prefix reuse, and chunked prefill all at once. It is not four separate features bolted together but four consequences of the same iteration-level scheduling decision, which is why understanding the loop is worth more than memorizing the flags.
Preemption is not free and it is a signal. When you see preemption in the logs, the engine is thrashing: it admitted more work than the KV pool can hold and is now paying to swap or recompute. A little is fine under bursty load; a lot means --max-num-seqs or --max-model-len is set too high for the pool, and you are better off admitting fewer sequences than churning them. The KV arithmetic from chapter 2 is how you size those flags so preemption stays rare.
Prefix caching
Many requests share a prefix: a long system prompt, a few-shot preamble, a common instruction header. Prefilling that shared prefix afresh for every request is wasted compute. Because PagedAttention already stores the cache in shareable blocks, vLLM can hash the tokens of each block and reuse blocks whose content matches across requests. The second request that arrives with the same system prompt finds its prefix blocks already populated, skips their prefill entirely, and starts generating almost immediately.
With --enable-prefix-caching, vLLM hashes the token contents of each completed KV block and keeps a map from hash to physical block. On a new request it walks the prompt block by block; for each block whose hash is already resident, it points the new sequence's block table at the existing physical block (ref-counted, copy-on-write) instead of recomputing. The prefill then only runs on the suffix that is not already cached. For a workload with a shared 1,000-token system prompt, this converts a 1,000-token prefill into a near-free table lookup on every request after the first. Cached blocks are evicted LRU when the pool is pressured, so the feature degrades gracefully rather than causing OOM.
For the thesis eval loop, where thousands of prompts share the same instruction scaffold, prefix caching is a substantial free win and it is on by default in recent vLLM.
Prefix caching keys on exact token-block content, so it only hits when the shared prefix is byte-identical after tokenization. A system prompt that varies by a timestamp, a per-request user id, or even trailing whitespace breaks the match and silently reverts to full prefill. When I want the win, I keep the shared scaffold fixed and push the variable parts to the end of the prompt, where they become a cheap suffix instead of poisoning the cacheable prefix. This is a place where a tiny prompt-engineering choice has a large systems consequence.
Chunked prefill
A long prefill is a big compute burst that monopolizes the GPU for one iteration, and while it runs, the sequences that are decoding get no forward progress. Their inter-token latency spikes. Chunked prefill slices a long prompt's prefill into fixed-size token chunks and interleaves those chunks with ongoing decode steps in the same batch.
Recall the roofline: prefill is compute-bound (intensity ) and decode is bandwidth-bound (intensity ). Running them in the same batch is complementary: the prefill chunk keeps the tensor cores busy while the decode tokens keep the memory bus busy, so the two phases fill each other's idle resource. vLLM caps the tokens processed per step (--max-num-batched-tokens); a long prompt is admitted a chunk at a time under that cap, and each step also carries the decode tokens of running sequences. The result is that a single 16K-token prompt no longer freezes every other user's stream for one long iteration; its cost is spread across many steps, flattening the tail of inter-token latency at a small cost to the long prompt's own time-to-first-token. This is a latency-fairness knob, and --max-num-batched-tokens is where you set the chunk budget.
The OpenAI-compatible server surface
All of this hides behind an HTTP server that speaks the OpenAI API: POST /v1/chat/completions, POST /v1/completions, GET /v1/models, plus streaming via server-sent events. This is not cosmetic; it is the single most important operational decision in the whole stack, because it means every client, eval harness, and load tool that targets OpenAI works against my local server with only a base-URL change. The eval frameworks in Part III (Inspect, lm-evaluation-harness) speak OpenAI; the training loops in later parts sample from an OpenAI endpoint; the benchmark tools point at one. By making the local server API-compatible, vLLM lets me swap "a frontier API" for "my 16GB card" everywhere without rewriting a line of client code, which is precisely what makes a one-GPU thesis tractable. The compatibility is not perfect (some sampling parameters and response fields differ, and the chat template is the model's, not OpenAI's), so the read-along habit is to check the served model's template renders as expected before trusting eval scores. Under the endpoint, a request becomes: tokenize, apply the model's chat template, admit into the waiting queue, get scheduled through the loop above, and stream tokens back as SSE chunks as decode produces them. The /metrics endpoint (Prometheus format) exposes the internals I actually care about: running/waiting/swapped counts, KV cache usage fraction, time-to-first-token and time-per-output-token histograms, and preemption totals. Those metrics are the honest window into whether the scheduler is happy, and the benchmarking chapter reads them directly.
flowchart TB
R["POST /v1/chat/completions"] --> T[tokenize + chat template]
T --> W[waiting queue]
W --> S{scheduler<br/>each engine step}
S -->|prefill chunk| P[PagedAttention kernel]
S -->|decode step| P
P --> B[block allocator<br/>+ block tables]
B -->|OOM| E[preempt: swap / recompute]
E --> W
P --> O[stream SSE chunks out]
B -.hash match.-> PC[prefix cache reuse]
Tooling
The tool for reading these internals is the server's own logging plus /metrics. vLLM logs a periodic throughput line summarizing the scheduler state, and with higher log verbosity it narrates admission, preemption, and prefix-cache hits. The lab below runs a controlled load and reads those lines so each field stops being noise and becomes a diagnostic. Everything is uv-run.
Lab: read the scheduler logs under a controlled load
The artifact is scheduler_annotated.md: a captured slice of vLLM's log during a two-phase load test, with each field annotated in my own words. Producing it forces me to map every log number back to a mechanism above.
Set up
uv init vllm-internals-lab && cd vllm-internals-lab
uv add "vllm>=0.6" openai requests
Start a server with informative logging
# FP8 weights: Qwen3-8B does not fit in full BF16 on 16GB (chapter 2).
VLLM_LOGGING_LEVEL=INFO uv run vllm serve Qwen/Qwen3-8B \
--quantization fp8 --max-model-len 8192 \
--max-num-seqs 16 --max-num-batched-tokens 2048 \
--enable-prefix-caching \
--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92 2>&1 | tee serve.log
Generate a controlled two-phase load
The load is designed to exercise the scheduler: a burst of short requests sharing a long system prompt (to trigger prefix caching), then a couple of very long prompts concurrent with short ones (to trigger chunked prefill and possibly preemption).
"""Drive a two-phase load: shared-prefix burst, then mixed long/short."""
import asyncio, time
from openai import AsyncOpenAI
client = AsyncOpenAI(base_url="http://localhost:8000/v1", api_key="EMPTY")
SYS = "You are a careful reasoning assistant. " * 60 # ~long shared prefix
async def ask(user, max_tokens=128):
r = await client.chat.completions.create(
model="Qwen/Qwen3-8B",
messages=[{"role": "system", "content": SYS},
{"role": "user", "content": user}],
max_tokens=max_tokens, temperature=0.0)
return r.usage
async def main():
# Phase 1: 12 short requests, identical system prompt -> prefix cache hits
await asyncio.gather(*[ask(f"Add {i} and {i+1}.") for i in range(12)])
await asyncio.sleep(1)
# Phase 2: two long prompts concurrent with short ones -> chunked prefill
long_user = "Summarize the following. " + ("data point. " * 1500)
await asyncio.gather(
ask(long_user, max_tokens=256), ask(long_user, max_tokens=256),
*[ask(f"What is {i} squared?") for i in range(8)])
if __name__ == "__main__":
asyncio.run(main())
uv run python load.py
Annotate the log
vLLM prints periodic lines shaped roughly like:
Avg prompt throughput: 5120.0 tokens/s, Avg generation throughput: 430.0 tokens/s,
Running: 10 reqs, Swapped: 0 reqs, Waiting: 2 reqs,
GPU KV cache usage: 63.5%, Prefix cache hit rate: 41.2%
Write the annotation file that decodes each field against the mechanisms:
# vLLM scheduler log, annotated (baseline machine, Qwen3-8B FP8 weights)
Captured: RECORD DATE / DRIVER / vLLM VERSION
- **Avg prompt throughput (tokens/s)**: prefill rate. High because prefill is
compute-bound (roofline ch.1, intensity ~ S). Spikes during Phase 2's long prompts.
- **Avg generation throughput (tokens/s)**: aggregate DECODE rate across all running
sequences. Bandwidth-bound per sequence, but summed over `Running` count; this is
where continuous batching turns low per-seq intensity into high total tok/s.
- **Running**: sequences decoding this step. Bounded by `--max-num-seqs` (16) AND by
the KV pool. If this pins below 16, the KV pool (ch.2) is the limit, not the flag.
- **Swapped**: sequences preempted to CPU (a vLLM V0 metric; on the V1 engine
preemption is by recompute and this stays 0, so watch the preemption counter in
`/metrics` instead). Nonzero = admitted more than the pool holds and the scheduler
is thrashing (see the preemption gotcha).
- **Waiting**: admitted-but-not-yet-running requests. Transient during bursts; chronic
= under-provisioned for the load.
- **GPU KV cache usage (%)**: fraction of the KV pool in use. This is
N_seq * ctx * B_tok / M_kv from ch.2, live. Near 100% precedes preemption.
- **Prefix cache hit rate (%)**: fraction of prompt blocks served from the prefix
cache instead of recomputed. ~0% in Phase 1's first request, then jumps once the
shared system prompt is resident. This is the free win of --enable-prefix-caching.
What you should see
In Phase 1, the first request shows a near-zero prefix cache hit rate, then every subsequent request with the same system prompt shows the hit rate climbing toward the fraction of the prompt that is shared prefix, and their prompt throughput effectively stops counting those cached tokens (the prefill is skipped). In Phase 2, when the two long prompts arrive, prompt throughput spikes as chunked prefill feeds those prompts in over several steps while the short requests keep decoding, so generation throughput does not collapse to zero the way it would if the long prefill monopolized a whole iteration. Running should sit at or near my --max-num-seqs when demand exceeds it, and GPU KV cache usage should rise under the Phase 2 burst; if it hits ~100% and Swapped goes nonzero, I have watched a live preemption and my flags are one notch too aggressive for the pool. The annotated markdown is the deliverable: every field mapped to a mechanism from chapters 1 and 2, which is the point of opening the hood at all. Record the vLLM version, date, and driver at the top of the file, because these log formats drift between releases.
"vLLM is an operating system for your GPU's memory." The features that make vLLM fast are not deep-learning tricks, they are operating-systems tricks wearing an ML costume. PagedAttention is virtual memory: fixed-size pages, a page table per sequence, and the same win (no contiguous worst-case allocation, so fragmentation dies). Prefix caching is deduplication with copy-on-write. Continuous batching is a preemptive scheduler that never lets the core idle on the slowest job. Chunked prefill is time-slicing a heavy task so interactive ones stay responsive. This post reframes an inference engine as the OS-textbook chapter it secretly is, and argues that once you see the mapping, every serving flag stops being cargo-cult and starts being a knob on a mechanism you already understand.
vLLM operations
The internals chapter explained the mechanisms; this chapter turns them into commands I can run at 2am without thinking. The goal is a serving runbook for the whole repertoire (Qwen3-8B at FP8, Qwen3-14B at AWQ, gpt-oss-20b at MXFP4) where every flag has a reason traceable to the arithmetic of the last four chapters, plus the operational scaffolding that makes serving durable: health checks, a systemd unit so the server survives a logout or reboot, and a clean model-swap workflow because a 16GB card holds exactly one of these models at a time. The deliverable is that runbook, committed to the repo, and its value is that six months from now, mid-experiment, I can bring any model in the repertoire up and swap between them without re-deriving a thing or rediscovering the same three failure modes. A runbook is a promise to my future self that the boring parts are already solved.
Theory
There is not much new theory here, which is the point: operations is where theory becomes muscle memory. The chapters before this one earned the right to be terse now: I already know why each flag exists and what it trades off, so the job is to assemble the pieces into commands and scaffolding that run without me thinking about the arithmetic each time. That assembly is itself a skill worth writing down, because the failure modes of operations are not intellectual (I understand the KV budget fine) but procedural (I forgot the old process was still holding the card). Three operational facts frame everything.
First, one model at a time. Qwen3-8B in full BF16 alone needs ~15 GiB of the 16 GiB card for weights (chapter 2's budget), so much that it leaves no usable KV pool and must itself be served in FP8, so there is certainly no holding two models resident. Every serving session is a single vllm serve process bound to port 8000, and switching models means stopping one and starting another. This is why the swap workflow is a first-class artifact, not an afterthought.
Second, persistence and swap safety are the real deliverables. A vllm serve typed into a terminal dies the moment the SSH session drops or the machine reboots, which is fine for a five-minute test and useless for a substrate that eval and training runs depend on for hours. Wrapping the serve in a supervised service that restarts on failure and survives logout, and making the model swap a scripted sequence that cannot race itself, is what separates a demo from infrastructure. Everything below builds toward those two.
Third, the flags are the exposed controls on the mechanisms. --gpu-memory-utilization sets the memory vLLM claims (chapter 2's ); --max-model-len sets per-sequence context ; --max-num-seqs caps concurrency ; --kv-cache-dtype sets the KV byte width ; --quantization selects the weight kernel; --max-num-batched-tokens sets the chunked-prefill chunk budget. Choosing them is just plugging the KV arithmetic back in.
Every serve command in this chapter is coupled to a vLLM version. Run uv run vllm serve --help | less on the machine and confirm the exact spelling and defaults of the six flags above before committing a runbook, because they drift: quantization backends get renamed, KV-dtype values change, and MXFP4 auto-detection has moved between releases. Then run uv run vllm --version and write that string at the top of the runbook. A serve command with no version stamp is not reproducible, and reproducibility is the entire reason this book exists.
Tooling: the canonical serve commands, every flag justified
Qwen3-8B at FP8
Full BF16 weights (~15.3 GiB) do not fit on this 16GB card with any usable KV pool (chapter 2's budget goes negative), so the reference model is served with FP8 weights via --quantization fp8. That halves the weight footprint to ~7.7 GiB and opens a real KV pool; FP8 KV on top keeps the per-token cost low. The served name stays qwen3-8b so downstream configs do not care that the weights are quantized.
#!/usr/bin/env bash
set -euo pipefail
uv run vllm serve Qwen/Qwen3-8B \
--quantization fp8 \
--max-model-len 8192 \
--kv-cache-dtype fp8 \
--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92 \
--max-num-seqs 16 \
--enable-prefix-caching \
--port 8000 \
--served-model-name qwen3-8b
--quantization fp8: serve the 8B with FP8 weights, because full BF16 (~15.3 GiB) leaves no KV pool on 16GB (chapter 2). FP8 halves the weight read, roughly doubling the decode ceiling as a bonus. Lowering--gpu-memory-utilizationis not an alternative here: it gives less memory, not more, and BF16 cannot load at all.--max-model-len 8192: keeps the worst-case per-sequence KV reservation modest (8K, not the model's 32K native). With ~6 GiB of KV pool now available, raise it if a task needs the context and accept fewer concurrent seqs.--kv-cache-dtype fp8: halves KV bytes/token (chapter 2), stretching concurrency and context further. The accuracy cost is a fraction of a point; measure it.--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92: standard headroom now that FP8 weights leave a real pool; no need to push to 0.95.--max-num-seqs 16: the FP8-weight pool (~6 GiB) supports real concurrency at short contexts, unlike the BF16 case that could not load.--enable-prefix-caching: the eval workload shares long instruction scaffolds, so this is a free prefill saving.--served-model-name qwen3-8b: a stable client-facing name so the swap workflow does not break downstream configs.
Qwen3-14B at AWQ (4-bit)
The workhorse. Quantized weights (~7.75 GiB) leave a comfortable ~6 GiB KV pool, so this config is generous: more concurrency, more context, native-precision KV for cleaner attention.
#!/usr/bin/env bash
set -euo pipefail
uv run vllm serve Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ \
--quantization awq_marlin \
--max-model-len 16384 \
--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92 \
--max-num-seqs 16 \
--max-num-batched-tokens 4096 \
--enable-prefix-caching \
--port 8000 \
--served-model-name qwen3-14b
--quantization awq_marlin: selects the Marlin INT4 kernel that dequantizes in-register (chapter 3's under-the-hood), so decode genuinely reads 4-bit weights and the ceiling roughly doubles versus BF16.--max-model-len 16384: affordable here because the pool is ~6 GiB; at 16K, KV is 2.5 GiB/seq (chapter 2 table), so a couple of long sequences or many short ones fit.--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92: standard headroom; the weights are small enough that I do not need to push to 0.95.--max-num-seqs 16: the pool supports real concurrency now; 16 is a round cap that the KV budget can back at short contexts.--max-num-batched-tokens 4096: the chunked-prefill chunk size (chapter 4). 4K keeps a long prompt from freezing other streams while still being a big enough chunk for good prefill utilization.- KV left at default BF16: the pool is comfortable, so I spend precision on attention rather than squeezing KV; switch to
fp8only if I want to push concurrency further.
gpt-oss-20b at MXFP4
Ships pre-quantized in MXFP4, an MoE with only ~3.6B active params, so it decodes fast (chapter 1's ceiling) and its weights (~12-13 GiB) still leave a workable pool. Its alternating sliding-window attention means its long-context KV grows more slowly than the naive formula suggests (chapter 2's gotcha).
#!/usr/bin/env bash
set -euo pipefail
uv run vllm serve openai/gpt-oss-20b \
--max-model-len 16384 \
--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92 \
--max-num-seqs 12 \
--enable-prefix-caching \
--port 8000 \
--served-model-name gpt-oss-20b
- No explicit
--quantization: the checkpoint is natively MXFP4 and vLLM detects it; on Blackwell the native FP4 path serves it directly. --max-model-len 16384: the sliding-window layers cap their own KV, so context is cheaper than the dense formula implies; 16K is comfortable and can go higher, verified against the boot-time block count rather than a hand estimate.--max-num-seqs 12: a moderate cap; the MoE's fast decode means even 12 concurrent streams stay responsive.--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92: standard; ~12-13 GiB of weights plus a few GiB pool fits with headroom.
Flag names and defaults drift across vLLM releases (awq vs awq_marlin, KV-dtype spellings, MXFP4 auto-detection). Stamp the vLLM version in the runbook and re-verify the flags after any upgrade. A serve command is not a fact of nature; it is version-coupled.
Health checks
A server that returns 200 on /health is not necessarily generating tokens correctly; a real health check does a tiny completion.
#!/usr/bin/env bash
set -euo pipefail
BASE="${1:-http://localhost:8000}"
# 1. liveness
curl -fsS "$BASE/health" >/dev/null && echo "health: OK"
# 2. model is loaded and named as expected
curl -fsS "$BASE/v1/models" | python3 -c 'import sys,json; \
print("models:", [m["id"] for m in json.load(sys.stdin)["data"]])'
# 3. it actually generates
curl -fsS "$BASE/v1/completions" \
-H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-d '{"model":"'"${2:-qwen3-14b}"'","prompt":"2+2=","max_tokens":3,"temperature":0}' \
| python3 -c 'import sys,json; \
print("gen:", json.load(sys.stdin)["choices"][0]["text"].strip())'
echo "healthcheck passed"
A systemd unit for persistent serving
To keep a model serving across logout and reboot, wrap it in a user systemd service. This survives SSH disconnects and restarts on failure.
[Unit]
Description=vLLM inference server (repertoire)
After=network-online.target
Wants=network-online.target
[Service]
Type=simple
WorkingDirectory=/home/trevor/thesis-tech-stack/serve
Environment=HF_HOME=/home/trevor/.cache/huggingface
# The instance name selects the script: vllm@qwen3-14b-awq runs qwen3-14b-awq.sh.
ExecStart=/usr/bin/env bash /home/trevor/thesis-tech-stack/serve/%i.sh
Restart=on-failure
RestartSec=5
TimeoutStartSec=300
[Install]
WantedBy=default.target
Templated by model so I can start whichever I want:
mkdir -p ~/.config/systemd/user
cp serve/vllm-serve.service ~/.config/systemd/user/vllm@.service
systemctl --user daemon-reload
# start the workhorse:
systemctl --user start vllm@qwen3-14b-awq
systemctl --user enable vllm@qwen3-14b-awq # survive reboot
journalctl --user -u vllm@qwen3-14b-awq -f # follow logs
The model-swap workflow
Because only one model fits, swapping is: stop the current server, wait for VRAM to actually free, start the target, wait for health. Doing this by hand invites the classic failure where the new server OOMs because the old one has not released memory yet. Script it.
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Swap the resident model: ./swap.sh <target-unit-instance> <served-name>
set -euo pipefail
TARGET="${1:?usage: swap.sh <qwen3-8b-fp8|qwen3-14b-awq|gpt-oss-20b> <served-name>}"
SERVED="${2:?served model name for healthcheck}"
echo "stopping any running vllm@ unit..."
systemctl --user stop 'vllm@*' 2>/dev/null || true
echo "waiting for VRAM to free..."
for i in $(seq 1 30); do
USED=$(nvidia-smi --query-gpu=memory.used --format=csv,noheader,nounits | head -1)
echo " VRAM used: ${USED} MiB"
[ "$USED" -lt 1500 ] && break # weights released; only driver overhead left
sleep 2
done
echo "starting vllm@${TARGET}..."
systemctl --user start "vllm@${TARGET}"
echo "waiting for health..."
for i in $(seq 1 60); do
if curl -fsS http://localhost:8000/health >/dev/null 2>&1; then
./healthcheck.sh http://localhost:8000 "$SERVED"
echo "swap to ${TARGET} complete."
exit 0
fi
sleep 3
done
echo "ERROR: ${TARGET} did not become healthy in time" >&2
exit 1
The VRAM-drain wait loop is the load-bearing part: it polls nvidia-smi until the old weights are actually gone (used memory back under ~1.5 GiB of driver overhead) before launching the next server, which is exactly the race that bites people who just stop; start. Process teardown is not instantaneous: the Python process has to release its CUDA context, and until it does the memory it held is still counted as used, so a new server launched too eagerly sees a full card and OOMs at graph-capture time. The loop turns a flaky manual dance into a deterministic sequence I can put in a cron job or a training harness without babysitting it.
Observability: what to watch while a model serves
A server that booted healthy can still degrade under load, and the window into that is the Prometheus /metrics endpoint (chapter 4). The three gauges worth a persistent eye are the running/waiting/swapped sequence counts, the KV cache usage fraction, and the preemption counter. (The swapped count is a V0 metric; on the V1 engine preemption is by recompute, so it stays 0 and the preemption counter is the one to watch.) A quick one-liner keeps them on screen:
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Poll the vLLM /metrics endpoint for the gauges that predict trouble.
BASE="${1:-http://localhost:8000}"
while true; do
curl -fsS "$BASE/metrics" 2>/dev/null | grep -E \
'vllm:num_requests_(running|waiting|swapped)|vllm:gpu_cache_usage_perc|vllm:num_preemptions' \
| grep -v '#'
echo "---"; sleep 5
done
The reading is diagnostic, not decorative. KV cache usage creeping toward 100% with a rising waiting count means the pool is saturated and I am about to start preempting; that is the signal to lower --max-num-seqs or shorten --max-model-len for this workload, both of which trace straight back to the chapter-2 hyperbola. A nonzero and climbing preemption counter means I am already thrashing and paying to swap or recompute cache, which is strictly worse than admitting fewer sequences in the first place. Watching these while the benchmark of the next chapter runs is how I learn the real operating envelope of each model on this specific card, as opposed to the envelope the arithmetic predicted, and the two should agree to within the overhead fudge factor.
The three failure modes at boot, and their fixes
Almost every serving failure on this card is one of three things, and recognizing them by their symptom saves hours.
- OOM during graph capture. The server loads weights fine, then dies while capturing CUDA graphs or allocating the KV pool. Cause:
--gpu-memory-utilizationis too high for the real activation and graph overhead on the day. Fix: lower utilization a notch, shorten--max-model-len, or add--kv-cache-dtype fp8to shrink the pool's per-token cost. This is distinct from a model that cannot fit at all: Qwen3-8B in full BF16 exceeds the card no matter the utilization (lowering it gives less memory), which is why the reference is served with FP8 weights rather than tuned to fit. - OOM right after a swap. The new server dies immediately even though its config fit before. Cause: the previous process had not released its CUDA context, so the card was still full. Fix: this is exactly what the swap script's VRAM-drain loop prevents; if it still happens, raise the drain threshold or the retry count.
- Quantization backend mismatch. The server refuses to load an AWQ or MXFP4 checkpoint. Cause: a
--quantizationvalue that this vLLM version spells differently, or a checkpoint whose format the installed kernels do not support. Fix: checkvllm serve --helpfor the accepted values (the read-along), and confirm the Blackwell FP4/Marlin paths are present in this build.
None of these are mysterious once you have seen them, and the runbook's acceptance table exists precisely to catch them on the machine before they surprise me mid-experiment.
Lab: stand up each model and script the swap
The artifact is serve/RUNBOOK.md, a markdown runbook committed to the repo that ties the scripts together and records the acceptance evidence.
Set up
cd ~/thesis-tech-stack
mkdir -p serve && cd serve
uv add "vllm>=0.6" requests # into the serving env
chmod +x *.sh
Exercise each model and the swap
# bring up the workhorse and prove it
systemctl --user start vllm@qwen3-14b-awq
./healthcheck.sh http://localhost:8000 qwen3-14b
# swap to the reference model
./swap.sh qwen3-8b-fp8 qwen3-8b
# swap to the MoE
./swap.sh gpt-oss-20b gpt-oss-20b
Write the runbook
# vLLM Serving Runbook: MSI Aegis R2 (RTX 5080 16GB)
Stamp: vLLM VERSION, NVIDIA 570-open, DATE. One model resident at a time (16GB).
## Models and their configs
| served name | checkpoint | precision | max ctx | max seqs | KV dtype | notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| qwen3-8b | Qwen/Qwen3-8B | FP8 | 8192 | 16 | fp8 | FP8 weights ~7.7 GiB (BF16 ~15.3 GiB won't fit) |
| qwen3-14b | Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ | INT4-g | 16384 | 16 | bf16 | workhorse; ~6 GiB KV pool |
| gpt-oss-20b| openai/gpt-oss-20b | MXFP4 | 16384 | 12 | bf16 | MoE, ~3.6B active, fast decode |
## Start a model
systemctl --user start vllm@<unit> # qwen3-8b-fp8 | qwen3-14b-awq | gpt-oss-20b
./healthcheck.sh http://localhost:8000 <served-name>
## Swap models (only one fits)
./swap.sh <target-unit> <served-name>
# stops current, waits for VRAM drain (<1.5 GiB), starts target, waits for health
## Health
./healthcheck.sh # liveness + model list + 1 generation
curl -s localhost:8000/metrics | grep -E 'running|waiting|kv_cache'
## Persistence
systemctl --user enable vllm@<unit> # start on boot
journalctl --user -u vllm@<unit> -f # logs
## Acceptance evidence (fill on the machine)
- qwen3-14b boot KV blocks: RECORD ; implied max seqs @16k: RECORD
- qwen3-8b (FP8) boot KV blocks: RECORD ; KV pool GiB at util=0.92: RECORD
- gpt-oss boot KV blocks: RECORD
- swap round-trip time (14b -> 8b -> 20b): RECORD seconds
- date / driver: RECORD
What you should see
Each systemctl --user start should bring a server to a healthy state within a couple of minutes (the first launch is slower because of weight download and CUDA-graph capture, both of which are one-time costs cached for subsequent boots), and healthcheck.sh should print the model list, a tiny correct generation, and "healthcheck passed." The generation step matters more than it looks: a server can pass a liveness probe while quietly serving a broken chat template or a mis-quantized checkpoint, and only an actual token round-trip catches that, which is why the health check ends by asking the model to compute two plus two rather than trusting a 200 response. The swap script is where the real proof is: after swap.sh, nvidia-smi should show VRAM dropping back to driver overhead before the next server claims it, and the whole round trip should take on the order of tens of seconds plus the target's startup time, with no OOM. Qwen3-8B is the one to watch: full BF16 weights (~15.3 GiB) simply do not fit on 16GB with any usable KV pool, so the reference is served with FP8 weights (--quantization fp8), which brings the weights to ~7.7 GiB and opens a real pool. If it still OOMs at boot the cause is graph-capture overhead, not the weights, and the fix is a slightly lower --gpu-memory-utilization or a shorter --max-model-len, never a hoped-for BF16 fit. The committed serve/RUNBOOK.md, with its acceptance table filled in from the real machine (block counts, swap timing, date, driver), is the artifact the rest of the thesis leans on whenever it needs a model up. It is deliberately boring, and boring is the whole objective of an operations chapter. The exciting version of serving infrastructure is the one that surprises you at midnight; the boring version is the one you can run half-asleep because every sharp edge was filed down in daylight and written into a script. I am aiming squarely for boring.
"One GPU, three models, zero drama." The unglamorous truth of single-GPU serving is that the hard part is not making a model fast, it is making the swap between models reliable. On a 16GB card you can hold exactly one of your models at a time, so your real infrastructure is the thirty-second choreography of stopping one server, waiting for the VRAM to actually drain (the race that OOMs everyone who skips it), and bringing up the next. This post is a love letter to operational boredom: a systemd unit, a health check that generates a token instead of trusting a 200, and a swap script whose most important line is a polling loop on nvidia-smi. Every serving flag gets exactly one sentence of justification traceable to arithmetic, and the reward is a runbook you can follow half-asleep.
Benchmarking without lying to yourself
The runbook stands up a server; this chapter measures it honestly. That qualifier matters, because inference benchmarking is unusually easy to get wrong in ways that flatter your own stack. You warm nothing up and blame the model for a cold-start artifact. You report a single run and call the noise a result. You quote peak throughput at batch 64 and per-request latency in the same breath as if a user experiences both. The whole discipline of this chapter is measurement hygiene: defining metrics that mean something, controlling the conditions, quantifying variance, and producing a baseline report I would be willing to publish and, more to the point, willing to reuse as the fixed serving substrate for every training experiment later in the thesis. If the baseline is dishonest, every reward signal built on top of it inherits the lie.
The stakes are higher here than in a one-off benchmark blog post precisely because this number gets reused. Later parts of the thesis will hold the serving substrate fixed and vary something upstream (a quantization choice, a training checkpoint, a sampling setting) and ask whether throughput or latency moved. That comparison is only meaningful if the baseline was measured with enough rigor that I know its noise floor and its exact conditions. A baseline recorded sloppily is not just wrong once, it silently corrupts every downstream comparison that leans on it, and I will not know, because the corruption looks like a plausible number. So the discipline in this chapter is not perfectionism for its own sake; it is the minimum required for the baseline to be a foundation rather than a liability.
Theory
Latency and throughput are different axes, and they trade off
The two headline numbers answer different questions and pull in opposite directions.
Latency is how long one request takes, measured from the requester's side. It is what a single user feels. Throughput is how many tokens (or requests) the server completes per second across all concurrent work. It is what a batch eval job cares about. They trade off because the lever that raises throughput (bigger batches, more concurrency) also raises per-request latency: your request now shares the GPU with others and waits its turn in each scheduler step. You cannot summarize a server with one number, and any benchmark that reports only throughput or only latency is answering half the question. The honest artifact reports a curve, or at least both endpoints: latency at low load, throughput at saturation.
The two latency metrics that matter: TTFT and TPOT
Because generation has two phases, latency has two components, and conflating them hides where time goes.
Time to first token (TTFT) is the wall-clock from sending the request to receiving the first output token. It is dominated by prefill (compute-bound, chapter 1) plus queueing delay if the server is busy. Long prompts and loaded servers inflate it. This is the "did it hang?" number a user judges responsiveness by.
Time per output token (TPOT), also called inter-token latency, is the steady-state time between subsequent tokens during decode. It is dominated by the bandwidth-bound decode step (chapter 1) and, under batching, by how many sequences share each forward pass. Its reciprocal is the per-sequence decode tok/s.
For a request with prompt length and generated tokens, total latency is:
This decomposition is why you must report TTFT and TPOT separately rather than a single latency: they scale with different inputs ( for TTFT, for the decode term) and are governed by different hardware roofs (compute for prefill, bandwidth for decode). A change that improves one can worsen the other, e.g. chunked prefill lowers other requests' TPOT variance at the cost of a long prompt's own TTFT. A single blended latency number would hide that entirely.
So the minimal honest latency report is a distribution of TTFT and a distribution of TPOT, each summarized by median and a tail percentile, not a mean.
Why percentiles, not means
Latency distributions are right-skewed with heavy tails: most requests are fast, a few are slow because they got queued behind a long prefill or hit a preemption (chapter 4). The mean is dragged around by the tail and hides the typical experience; the tail is exactly what you must not ignore because it is where users churn. Report the median (p50) for the typical case and p95 or p99 for the tail. A mean alone is a way of lying to yourself with a true number.
Warmup, and why the first runs are garbage
The first requests to a fresh server are systematically slow for reasons that have nothing to do with steady-state performance: CUDA kernels are being JIT-compiled or autotuned, CUDA graphs are being captured, the KV allocator is cold, caches are empty, and clock speeds may not have ramped. Including these in your statistics contaminates them. The fix is a warmup phase: send a batch of representative requests, discard their timings, and only then start measuring. Skipping warmup is the single most common way people accidentally slander their own stack.
Warmup has to be representative, not token. If my real workload sends 2K-token prompts and generates 256 tokens, my warmup should do the same, because the kernels autotuned and the graphs captured are shape-dependent; warming up with a ten-token prompt leaves the very code paths my benchmark exercises still cold. The rule I follow is to warm up with the same request distribution I am about to measure, run enough of it that the throughput number stabilizes across successive batches, and only then start recording. A cheap way to confirm warmup is sufficient is to plot the per-request latency against request index and check that it has flattened before the measurement window begins; if it is still descending, the card has not reached steady state and my first "measurements" are really extended warmup wearing a disguise.
Load generation: open vs closed
How you generate load changes what you measure, and the distinction has a name. A closed-loop generator keeps a fixed number of concurrent clients, each sending a new request as soon as its previous one returns; it measures the server at a fixed concurrency and naturally finds the throughput ceiling. An open-loop generator sends requests at a fixed arrival rate regardless of whether prior ones finished, which models real traffic and exposes queueing collapse when the arrival rate exceeds service capacity. For a baseline I use closed-loop sweeps across concurrency levels to trace the latency-throughput curve; the rate-based open-loop test is how I later check a chosen operating point survives bursty eval traffic. Reporting which one you ran is part of the hygiene, because the same server produces different-looking numbers under each.
The distinction is not academic. A closed-loop test with 8 clients can never overload a server, because each client waits for its reply before sending again, so the offered load self-throttles to whatever the server can handle; it measures capacity but hides queueing collapse. An open-loop test at 20 requests per second against a server that can only clear 12 will show latency climbing without bound as the queue grows, which is the honest picture of what happens when real traffic exceeds capacity. For the thesis, the eval workload is closer to closed-loop (a harness fires the next prompt when the last returns), so the closed-loop sweep is the right baseline. But before I trust an operating point in production I run one open-loop test at the expected arrival rate to confirm the server has margin, because the failure mode I fear is the one closed-loop testing structurally cannot show me.
Variance across runs
A single run is an anecdote. Thermal state, background processes, driver behavior, and scheduling nondeterminism all move the numbers between otherwise-identical runs. The honest move is to run the whole benchmark several times and report the variance or a confidence interval on the summary metrics, so a later comparison (say, does an FP8 KV cache change throughput?) can be judged against the noise floor rather than mistaken for signal. If two configs differ by less than the run-to-run spread, they do not differ.
Comparing two configurations honestly
Most of the value of a baseline is that later I will change one thing and ask whether it helped. That question is a statistical one, not a matter of eyeballing two numbers. If configuration A throughputs at tok/s (mean plus-minus stdev over runs) and B at , the three-token gap is inside the noise and I have learned nothing. The cheap discipline is to keep everything identical except the one variable, run each config several times, and compare the difference in means against the spread; a rough rule is that the difference should exceed roughly two standard deviations of the run-to-run variation before I treat it as real. When the effect is small and I care (a 3% throughput change is worth real money at scale), I run more repeats to shrink the standard error, because the uncertainty on a mean falls as in the number of runs . The Part III statistics chapter develops this properly for eval metrics; for inference the same instinct applies, and the harness below records the per-run spread precisely so this comparison is possible at all rather than being reconstructed from a single lucky number.
Determinism traps to control before you trust a number: pin the driver and vLLM version (stamp them in the report); fix temperature=0 and a seed if you want reproducible token counts, since sampling changes and thus the decode term; hold max_tokens fixed so throughput comparisons are on equal output lengths; disable other GPU consumers; and let the GPU reach thermal steady state (the first minute of a cold card runs at different clocks). None of these are optional if you plan to reuse the baseline as a reference substrate.
Tooling
Two layers of tooling. vLLM ships a benchmark script (vllm bench serve, formerly benchmarks/benchmark_serving.py) that does closed and open-loop load with proper TTFT/TPOT accounting, and it is the right tool for the headline numbers; it also has the advantage of being the reference implementation the vLLM community quotes, so numbers from it are comparable to numbers others publish. But I also want a small harness I fully control and understand, because the baseline report needs to record exactly my conditions and feed my own plots. The harness below wraps the OpenAI-compatible streaming API, does explicit warmup, sweeps concurrency, records per-request TTFT and TPOT, repeats runs for variance, and reads the server's /metrics for cross-checking. It stays deliberately small so nothing is hidden.
Lab: a benchmark harness and a baseline report
The artifact is baseline/inference_baseline.json plus a human-readable baseline/REPORT.md: the inference baseline that later parts of the thesis treat as the fixed serving substrate. It uses measured-number placeholders throughout, to be filled on the machine.
Set up
cd ~/thesis-tech-stack && mkdir -p baseline && cd baseline
uv init bench && cd bench
uv add openai numpy
The harness
"""Controlled latency/throughput harness against a streaming vLLM server.
Does explicit warmup, closed-loop concurrency sweep, per-request TTFT/TPOT,
and multi-run variance. Reports p50/p95, never bare means.
"""
import asyncio, time, argparse, json, statistics
from openai import AsyncOpenAI
PROMPTS = [
"Explain why decode is memory-bound in three sentences.",
"List five prime numbers and their squares.",
"Summarize the roofline model for a colleague.",
"What is 17 times 23? Show your working.",
]
async def one_request(client, model, prompt, max_tokens):
t0 = time.perf_counter()
t_first = None
n = 0
stream = await client.chat.completions.create(
model=model, messages=[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
max_tokens=max_tokens, temperature=0.0, stream=True)
async for chunk in stream:
if not chunk.choices or chunk.choices[0].delta.content is None:
continue
now = time.perf_counter()
if t_first is None:
t_first = now
n += 1
t_end = time.perf_counter()
ttft = (t_first - t0) if t_first else float("nan")
tpot = ((t_end - t_first) / (n - 1)) if n > 1 else float("nan")
return {"ttft": ttft, "tpot": tpot, "out_tokens": n,
"total": t_end - t0}
async def run_at_concurrency(client, model, conc, n_requests, max_tokens):
sem = asyncio.Semaphore(conc)
async def guarded(p):
async with sem:
return await one_request(client, model, p, max_tokens)
prompts = [PROMPTS[i % len(PROMPTS)] for i in range(n_requests)]
wall0 = time.perf_counter()
results = await asyncio.gather(*[guarded(p) for p in prompts])
wall = time.perf_counter() - wall0
total_out = sum(r["out_tokens"] for r in results)
return {
"concurrency": conc,
"throughput_tok_s": total_out / wall,
"ttft_p50": statistics.median(r["ttft"] for r in results if r["ttft"] == r["ttft"]),
"ttft_p95": _pct([r["ttft"] for r in results if r["ttft"] == r["ttft"]], 95),
"tpot_p50": statistics.median(r["tpot"] for r in results if r["tpot"] == r["tpot"]),
"tpot_p95": _pct([r["tpot"] for r in results if r["tpot"] == r["tpot"]], 95),
"n_requests": n_requests,
}
def _pct(xs, p):
xs = sorted(xs)
if not xs:
return float("nan")
k = min(len(xs) - 1, int(round((p / 100) * (len(xs) - 1))))
return xs[k]
async def main(args):
client = AsyncOpenAI(base_url=args.base_url, api_key="EMPTY")
# 1. Warmup: fire and discard.
print("warmup...")
await run_at_concurrency(client, args.model, conc=4,
n_requests=16, max_tokens=args.max_tokens)
# 2. Concurrency sweep, repeated for variance.
sweep = {}
for conc in args.concurrency:
runs = []
for r in range(args.repeats):
res = await run_at_concurrency(client, args.model, conc,
args.requests, args.max_tokens)
runs.append(res)
print(f" conc={conc} run={r} "
f"tp={res['throughput_tok_s']:.1f} tok/s "
f"ttft_p50={res['ttft_p50']*1000:.0f}ms "
f"tpot_p50={res['tpot_p50']*1000:.1f}ms")
# aggregate across repeats with mean+stdev of the summary metrics
sweep[conc] = _aggregate(runs)
report = {
"model": args.model,
"conditions": {
"max_tokens": args.max_tokens, "temperature": 0.0,
"repeats": args.repeats, "requests_per_run": args.requests,
"STAMP": "RECORD vLLM version / driver 570-open / date / GPU RTX 5080",
},
"sweep": sweep,
}
with open("../inference_baseline.json", "w") as f:
json.dump(report, f, indent=2)
print("wrote baseline/inference_baseline.json")
def _aggregate(runs):
def ms(key):
vals = [r[key] for r in runs]
return {"mean": statistics.mean(vals),
"stdev": statistics.stdev(vals) if len(vals) > 1 else 0.0}
return {
"throughput_tok_s": ms("throughput_tok_s"),
"ttft_p50_s": ms("ttft_p50"), "ttft_p95_s": ms("ttft_p95"),
"tpot_p50_s": ms("tpot_p50"), "tpot_p95_s": ms("tpot_p95"),
}
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--model", default="qwen3-14b")
ap.add_argument("--base-url", default="http://localhost:8000/v1")
ap.add_argument("--concurrency", type=int, nargs="+", default=[1, 4, 8, 16])
ap.add_argument("--requests", type=int, default=64)
ap.add_argument("--repeats", type=int, default=3)
ap.add_argument("--max-tokens", type=int, default=256)
asyncio.run(main(ap.parse_args()))
Run it against the workhorse
Start the 14B-AWQ server from the runbook, then:
uv run python harness.py --model qwen3-14b \
--concurrency 1 4 8 16 --requests 64 --repeats 3 --max-tokens 256
Cross-check throughput against vLLM's own tool and its metrics. Pass --tokenizer with the real checkpoint because --model here is only the served name (qwen3-14b), which vLLM cannot resolve to a tokenizer on its own, and give it a dataset (--dataset-name random) so it has prompts to send:
uv run vllm bench serve --model qwen3-14b \
--tokenizer Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ \
--dataset-name random --num-prompts 128 --request-rate 8 \
--base-url http://localhost:8000
curl -s http://localhost:8000/metrics | grep -E 'time_to_first_token|time_per_output_token'
Write the baseline report
# Inference Baseline: MSI Aegis R2 (RTX 5080 16GB)
STAMP: vLLM VERSION, NVIDIA 570-open, Ubuntu 24.04, DATE. Reused downstream as the
fixed serving substrate; do not compare across differently-stamped runs.
## Method
- Closed-loop concurrency sweep {1,4,8,16}, 64 requests/run, 3 repeats.
- Explicit warmup (16 req discarded). temperature=0, max_tokens=256 fixed.
- Metrics: TTFT and TPOT as p50/p95; throughput as tok/s at saturation.
- Cross-checked against `vllm bench serve` and /metrics histograms.
## Results (fill from inference_baseline.json)
| model | conc | throughput tok/s | TTFT p50 | TTFT p95 | TPOT p50 | TPOT p95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| qwen3-14b (AWQ) | 1 | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD |
| qwen3-14b (AWQ) | 8 | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD |
| qwen3-14b (AWQ) | 16 | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD |
| qwen3-8b (FP8) | 1 | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD |
| gpt-oss-20b | 1 | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD | RECORD |
## Sanity vs theory (chapter 1 ceilings)
- qwen3-14b AWQ decode ceiling ~116 tok/s (single seq). Measured TPOT p50 at conc=1
implies RECORD tok/s; ratio to ceiling = RECORD (expect 0.5-0.8).
- Throughput should RISE with concurrency (batching amortizes weight reads) while
per-request TPOT DEGRADES; confirm both trends in the table.
## Variance
- Run-to-run stdev on throughput at conc=8: RECORD tok/s (noise floor for later A/Bs).
What you should see
The concurrency sweep should show the textbook shape: throughput rises as concurrency climbs (batching amortizes the weight read across more tokens, the roofline's intensity boost made visible), while per-request TPOT degrades because each sequence now shares the forward pass. TTFT should stay low at concurrency 1 and climb at higher concurrency as requests queue. At concurrency 1, the measured decode rate (the reciprocal of TPOT p50) should land at roughly half to four-fifths of the chapter-1 ceiling for that model (about 116 tok/s for the 14B AWQ), the gap being kernel overhead, sampling, and KV reads; if it exceeds the ceiling, my byte or bandwidth accounting is wrong. The multi-run stdev columns give me a noise floor: any future change I test (FP8 KV, a different --max-num-batched-tokens) has to move a metric by more than that stdev before I am allowed to call it a real effect. The committed inference_baseline.json and REPORT.md, fully stamped with vLLM version, driver, and date, are the artifact the training chapters reuse whenever they need to know how fast the serving substrate is, so its honesty is load-bearing for everything downstream. Fill every RECORD from the real machine before treating the baseline as canonical.
"How to benchmark an LLM without fooling yourself." Most inference numbers you see are quietly dishonest, not through malice but through skipped hygiene: no warmup, so a cold CUDA-graph capture gets blamed on the model; a single run, so noise masquerades as a result; a mean latency that a heavy tail has dragged somewhere no real request lives; and the cardinal sin of quoting peak throughput and low latency together as if one user experienced both. This post is a field guide to measurement you can defend: separate TTFT from TPOT because they live on different hardware roofs, always report p50 and p95 instead of a mean, warm up and discard, sweep concurrency to draw the real latency-throughput curve, and repeat runs so you know your own noise floor before you claim an improvement. The deliverable is a benchmark you would stake a thesis on, which, as it happens, I am.
What an eval is
An eval is a measurement instrument. That is the whole thesis of Part III compressed into one sentence, and if you take nothing else from these chapters, take that. A thermometer does not rank the weather; it reports a number that stands in for a physical quantity, and the number is only useful if you understand what it measures, how precisely, and where it lies. An eval is the same kind of object pointed at a model. When I run GSM8K against my 8B model and read "62.3%", that number is a reading off an instrument, and my job as the person building the instrument is to know what construct it estimates, how much noise sits on the reading, and which failure modes make the reading a lie.
The leaderboard framing gets this exactly backwards. A leaderboard treats the number as a rank, a single scalar you sort descending, and the model at the top wins. That framing is fine for marketing and useless for engineering. I am not trying to win; I am trying to detect a 2-point change in reasoning quality after a training run on one GPU, and to know whether that 2 points is signal or the instrument wobbling. The rest of Part III is about building instruments precise enough that the deltas I care about are visible above the noise floor. This chapter is the conceptual groundwork: what the instrument is supposed to measure, the two things people constantly confuse when they say "measure a model", the shape of the benchmark landscape, and the ways instruments quietly fail.
Pair this chapter with [BRM] Raschka, Build a Reasoning Model, chapter 3, which frames evaluation as the feedback signal a reasoning model is trained against, and [RLHF] Lambert, RLHF, Part 3, on evaluation and its discontents. Raschka gives you the training-loop-facing view (the eval is the thing you optimize, so its flaws become the model's flaws); Lambert gives you the measurement-facing skepticism (why published numbers are so often not what they claim). Read this chapter as the bridge: the eval is simultaneously an instrument I read and, later in this book, a reward I optimize, and both roles demand the same construct discipline.
Theory
Construct validity: what is the number actually about
Borrow the vocabulary from psychometrics, because they have been arguing about this for a century longer than we have. A construct is the abstract thing you want to measure but cannot observe directly: "mathematical reasoning ability", "propensity to refuse harmful requests", "instruction-following". You cannot weigh mathematical reasoning on a scale. So you build an operationalization: a concrete, scoreable task that you claim stands in for the construct. GSM8K, a set of grade-school word problems scored by exact-match on the final number, is an operationalization of "grade-school arithmetic reasoning".
Construct validity is the degree to which the operationalization actually tracks the construct. It is the single most important property of an eval and the one most often ignored, because it cannot be read off the score. A model can score 90% on your benchmark for reasons that have nothing to do with the construct you named. Three classic threats:
- Construct under-representation. The task covers a narrow slice of the construct and you generalize the score to the whole thing. GSM8K is arithmetic word problems with small integers; a 90% there tells you almost nothing about multi-step proof, geometry, or reasoning over large numbers. Reporting it as "math ability" over-claims.
- Construct-irrelevant variance. The score moves for reasons unrelated to the construct. If a model scores higher because it happened to memorize the answer key (contamination, chapter 8), or because the answer-extraction regex is lenient toward its formatting, that variance is irrelevant to reasoning but shows up in the number.
- Criterion mismatch. The thing you score is not the thing you care about. If I care about "produces correct final answers" but score "contains the correct answer somewhere in the reasoning trace", a model that rambles the right number then contradicts itself scores as correct.
Construct validity is why "what an eval is" is not a philosophical warm-up. Every downstream decision, every quantization comparison, every training delta, is an inference from the number back to the construct, and that inference is exactly as sound as the validity of the instrument.
Treat an accuracy eval as independent Bernoulli trials (one per item) with true success probability . The measured accuracy is the sample mean, so its sampling variance is
The standard error is . This is the noise floor of the instrument from sampling alone, before adding decoding stochasticity or grader noise. At (worst case) and items,
so about percentage points at one standard error, or roughly points at 95% confidence (). The blunt consequence: on a 500-item eval, a 2-point improvement is inside the noise. If I want to resolve a 2-point delta reliably I need either more items, a paired/variance-reduced comparison (chapter 7), or a lower-variance metric. Chapter 7 does this properly with McNemar's test and clustered bootstraps; the point here is that the number "62.3%" is meaningless without an and a construct next to it. Every reading gets units and an interval, or it is not a measurement.
Capability versus propensity
The second confusion is between capability and propensity, and it is worth its own paragraph because conflating them produces some of the worst reasoning about models I see.
Capability is what the model can do under favorable conditions: best-of- sampling, a good prompt, tools available, maybe a hint. It answers "is the ability in there at all?" Propensity is what the model tends to do under realistic conditions: single sample, default prompt, no hand-holding. It answers "what will actually happen when I deploy this?" A model can have the capability to solve a problem (it gets it right 1 time in 20) and a near-zero propensity to solve it (it gets it right on the first try almost never). These are different constructs and they want different metrics.
This distinction is the reason pass@k and pass@1 both exist and are not interchangeable (chapter 2 derives them). pass@k with large is a capability probe: it asks whether any of samples succeeds, which surfaces latent ability. pass@1 (or pass@1 averaged over samples) is a propensity measure: the everyday hit rate. For reasoning-model training this split is central, because RL with verifiable rewards (Part V) works precisely by taking capability that already exists at high and dragging it down into propensity at . If your eval only measures propensity you cannot see the headroom RL has to work with; if it only measures capability you cannot see whether training actually moved everyday behavior. I want both readings, labeled, and I never let one masquerade as the other.
The most common way to lie to yourself is to report one accuracy number and let the reader assume it means whatever they want. "The model gets 71% on math" could be pass@1 (propensity) or pass@8 majority-vote (something in between) or pass@64 (capability), and these can differ by 20+ points on the same model and dataset. When I later compare a base model to its RL-trained descendant, the interesting result is often that pass@64 barely moved while pass@1 jumped: RL concentrated existing capability into propensity rather than teaching anything new. That story is invisible if I only logged one number. Always record , the sampling temperature, and the aggregation rule alongside the score.
The benchmark landscape and how instruments fail
The public benchmark ecosystem is large, fast-moving, and mostly built for leaderboards, which means most benchmarks are optimized for discrimination between frontier models rather than for stable measurement of a single model over a training run. Knowing the landscape is knowing which instruments to trust for which readings. The failure modes recur across all of them:
- Saturation. When the strong models cluster near 100%, the benchmark has stopped discriminating; the remaining variance is mostly label noise and formatting. MMLU and GSM8K are saturated or near it for frontier models in 2025, which is why harder successors (GPQA, MATH's harder splits, AIME-style problems) exist. For my 8B-to-20B repertoire, GSM8K is not saturated, which is exactly why it stays a useful instrument for me even as it stops being one for GPT-scale models. Saturation is relative to the model under test.
- Contamination. The test items, or close paraphrases, leaked into pretraining or finetuning data, so the model is partly recalling rather than reasoning. This inflates the score and destroys construct validity, and it is the default assumption for any popular benchmark released before your model's data cutoff. Chapter 8 is entirely about detecting and mitigating this.
- Prompt and format sensitivity. The same model on the same items can swing several points from a whitespace change, a different few-shot ordering, or a stricter answer-extraction regex. This is construct-irrelevant variance masquerading as capability. It is also why "published numbers differ" (chapter 5): two labs ran the same benchmark with different harness settings.
- Answer-extraction brittleness. For generative tasks you have to pull a final answer out of free text. A regex that expects
#### 42scores a model that wroteThe answer is 42.as wrong. The instrument is now measuring formatting compliance, not reasoning. - Metric-construct mismatch. Exact-match on the final token ignores whether the reasoning was valid; a model that guesses right scores identically to one that reasoned right. For reasoning research this is often the wrong criterion, and it is why verifiable scorers and process-level checks (chapter 4) matter.
- Overfitting the public split. Because the test set is public, the whole field gradient-descends on it socially: architectures and recipes that happen to help that benchmark propagate. The benchmark slowly stops measuring the construct and starts measuring "resemblance to things that do well on this benchmark".
None of these are reasons to abandon benchmarks. They are reasons to treat every benchmark as an instrument with a datasheet: what it measures, on what population, with what known distortions, at what precision. I keep that datasheet next to every number, and building the habit of writing it down is the lab for this chapter.
A working taxonomy
I organize evals into four families by construct, because the families demand different tooling and have different failure profiles. This taxonomy runs through the whole of Part III.
- Knowledge. Does the model know facts? Closed-book QA, MMLU-style multiple choice, TriviaQA. Construct: retrieval and recall of stored information. Failure profile: heavily contamination-prone (facts are memorizable), saturates fast, and multiple-choice format lets a model score above chance by elimination without knowing the answer. Cheap to score (exact match on a letter).
- Reasoning. Can the model carry out multi-step inference? GSM8K, MATH, AIME problems, logical-deduction tasks, code (which is reasoning you can execute). Construct: valid multi-step derivation toward a checkable answer. Failure profile: answer-extraction brittleness, and the deep mismatch between "right answer" and "right reasoning". This is the family the thesis lives in, because it is the family where a verifiable final answer gives me a clean, cheap, gameable-but-checkable reward signal for RL.
- Agentic. Can the model act in an environment over multiple turns, using tools, to accomplish a task? SWE-bench (fix a real GitHub issue), WebArena, tool-use suites. Construct: goal-directed behavior under partial observability with real side effects. Failure profile: enormously expensive, high variance, sandbox and environment fragility, and scores that depend as much on the scaffold as on the model. Chapters 3 and 4 build toward this with Inspect's solver and sandbox machinery.
- Safety. Does the model refuse what it should and comply with what it should, and is it robust to adversarial pressure? Refusal benchmarks, jailbreak suites, bias probes. Construct: this is the family where propensity is the whole point. I do not care whether the model can produce harmful content (it can); I care what it tends to do under realistic and adversarial prompting. Safety evals that report capability-style best-of- numbers are usually measuring the wrong thing.
The taxonomy is not clean at the edges (code is reasoning that is also agentic when you let it run tools; a knowledge question can require reasoning) but it is a good enough carving to organize which instrument I reach for and which failure modes I check first.
The through-line of this whole book is the serve to evaluate to score to train loop, and the reason it closes on one GPU is that reasoning evals with verifiable final answers give a reward signal that is (a) cheap to compute, (b) programmatic and reproducible, and (c) hard to game at the answer level even though it is gameable at the process level. A math problem has a right number; a unit test passes or it does not; a symbolic identity holds or it does not. That is what lets the same scorer I write for measurement in chapter 4 become the reward in chapter 7.3. Knowledge evals are too contaminated and too saturated to reward against; agentic evals are too expensive to run in a training loop on 16GB; safety evals need human or strong-judge grading that is too slow and too noisy for per-rollout reward. Reasoning is the sweet spot, and the entire eval-engineering effort in Part III is really an effort to build trustworthy reasoning instruments that double as reward functions.
Tooling
Two tools carry Part III, and this chapter is where I name them and say what each is for; chapters 3 through 5 go deep.
Inspect (inspect_ai, from the UK AI Safety Institute) is my instrument-building framework. Its mental model matches this chapter's ontology almost one-to-one: a Task binds a Dataset (the items), a Solver (how the model is prompted and, for agentic evals, how it acts over turns), and a Scorer (how a completed sample is turned into a number). It produces a structured, replayable log for every run, which is the datasheet-and-audit-trail I keep insisting on. Inspect is the right tool when I am building a custom instrument for a construct I care about, and when I need the run to be an auditable object I can re-score later without re-running the model. That last property is what makes it the on-ramp to using the same scorer as a reward.
lm-evaluation-harness (lm-eval, EleutherAI) is my comparability tool. It is a large library of pre-built, community-vetted task definitions (GSM8K, MMLU, HellaSwag, hundreds more) with fixed few-shot regimes and standardized scoring. Its value is precisely that it is standardized: when I want a number that is comparable to a published number, or a clean BF16-versus-INT4 delta on a canonical task, I reach for the harness so that my measurement choices match everyone else's. Chapter 5 is where I run it against my local vLLM endpoint via local-completions and produce the first committee-grade table.
The division of labor: harness for comparable, off-the-shelf readings against known instruments; Inspect for custom instruments, agentic solvers, verifiable scorers, and anything that will later feed the training loop. Both talk to the same OpenAI-compatible vLLM endpoint I stood up in Part II, so the model under test is served once and measured by either tool.
It is tempting to think that because Inspect or the harness produced the number, the number is trustworthy. The tooling gives you reproducibility and auditability; it does not give you construct validity. A perfectly reproducible measurement of the wrong construct is a perfectly reproducible mistake. The tools make it easy to run the eval; they do not make the eval a good instrument. That remains a design responsibility, which is why this chapter comes before the tools.
Lab
The artifact for a conceptual chapter is a conceptual artifact made concrete: an eval datasheet, a small machine-readable registry that forces me to write down, for each instrument, the construct it estimates, the family it belongs to, the metric, the population, and its known failure modes. This is the habit I want burned in before I run a single real eval: no number without a datasheet. The lab writes a validated registry to disk and a tiny script that refuses to let a datasheet be incomplete, so the discipline is enforced by code rather than by my good intentions.
Set up the project with uv, consistent with the two-environment doctrine from Part 0.
uv init evals-datasheet
cd evals-datasheet
uv add pydantic pyyaml
The registry is a YAML file. Each entry is one instrument. The point is that filling it in is uncomfortable: you cannot write "measures math" and move on, because the schema demands a construct statement, a population, and at least one named failure mode.
# An eval datasheet. Every instrument I read from gets an entry here BEFORE
# I trust a number off it. This file is the audit trail for construct validity.
instruments:
- id: gsm8k
name: "GSM8K"
family: reasoning # knowledge | reasoning | agentic | safety
construct: >
Multi-step grade-school arithmetic reasoning over small integers,
producing a single checkable final number.
operationalization: >
1319-item test split of natural-language word problems; score by
exact match on the final integer after chain-of-thought.
population: "Grade-school arithmetic word problems, small integers."
metric: exact_match # see chapter 2
default_k: 1
measures: propensity # capability | propensity
known_failure_modes:
- "Answer-extraction brittleness: regex must tolerate varied final-answer phrasing."
- "Contamination: widely reproduced; assume partial pretraining leakage."
- "Not saturated for 8B-20B models, so still discriminating at this scale."
notes: >
Doubles as an RL reward source in chapter 7 because the final answer
is cheaply and programmatically verifiable.
- id: mmlu
name: "MMLU"
family: knowledge
construct: "Broad closed-book factual recall across 57 subjects."
operationalization: "4-way multiple choice; score exact match on chosen letter."
population: "Academic and professional exam questions."
metric: exact_match
default_k: 1
measures: capability
known_failure_modes:
- "Multiple-choice lets elimination beat true knowledge; chance floor is 25%."
- "Saturated for frontier models; use with care as a discriminator."
- "Contamination-prone: facts are directly memorizable."
notes: "Comparability instrument; run via lm-eval for published-number parity."
Now the validator. It is a Pydantic model plus a script that loads the registry and fails loudly if any datasheet is incomplete. This is the enforcement: a registry entry that omits the construct or the failure modes is a runtime error, not a warning I ignore.
"""Validate the eval datasheet registry.
Run: uv run python -m evals.datasheet evals/registry.yaml
Exits non-zero if any instrument is missing the fields that make a number
trustworthy: a construct statement, a population, a metric, and at least one
named failure mode. No number without a datasheet.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from enum import Enum
from pathlib import Path
import yaml
from pydantic import BaseModel, Field, field_validator
class Family(str, Enum):
knowledge = "knowledge"
reasoning = "reasoning"
agentic = "agentic"
safety = "safety"
class Measures(str, Enum):
capability = "capability"
propensity = "propensity"
class Instrument(BaseModel):
id: str
name: str
family: Family
construct: str = Field(min_length=20) # force a real sentence
operationalization: str = Field(min_length=20)
population: str = Field(min_length=5)
metric: str
default_k: int = Field(ge=1)
measures: Measures
known_failure_modes: list[str] = Field(min_length=1) # at least one
notes: str = ""
@field_validator("known_failure_modes")
@classmethod
def _no_empty_modes(cls, v: list[str]) -> list[str]:
if any(not m.strip() for m in v):
raise ValueError("failure modes must be non-empty strings")
return v
class Registry(BaseModel):
instruments: list[Instrument]
def load(path: str | Path) -> Registry:
data = yaml.safe_load(Path(path).read_text())
return Registry.model_validate(data)
def main(argv: list[str]) -> int:
if len(argv) != 2:
print("usage: datasheet.py <registry.yaml>", file=sys.stderr)
return 2
reg = load(argv[1])
print(f"OK: {len(reg.instruments)} instrument(s) validated\n")
for ins in reg.instruments:
print(f" [{ins.family.value:9}] {ins.name:8} "
f"measures={ins.measures.value:11} "
f"k={ins.default_k} ({len(ins.known_failure_modes)} known failure mode(s))")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main(sys.argv))
Run it.
uv run python -m evals.datasheet evals/registry.yaml
What you should see
The script exits 0 and prints one line per instrument, something like:
OK: 2 instrument(s) validated
[reasoning ] GSM8K measures=propensity k=1 (3 known failure mode(s))
[knowledge ] MMLU measures=capability k=1 (3 known failure mode(s))
The artifact on disk is evals/registry.yaml, a validated datasheet, plus evals/datasheet.py, the validator that enforces it. To feel why this is the right discipline, delete the construct: line from the GSM8K entry and rerun: the script now exits non-zero with a Pydantic error naming the missing field. That failure is the whole point. The registry makes "no number without a datasheet" a property the code checks, not a virtue I have to remember. Every real eval I build in the next chapters gets an entry here first, and by chapter 5 the registry is the index of my instruments and the first place a committee member should look to understand what my numbers actually claim.
"Your eval is a thermometer, not a scoreboard." Most people read model benchmarks the way they read a sports table: sort descending, top wins. But a benchmark score is a reading off a measurement instrument, and like any instrument it has a construct (what it's actually about), a precision (how much noise sits on the reading), and failure modes (the ways it lies). I'd write the piece around one uncomfortable exercise: take any benchmark number you've quoted and try to fill in its datasheet, the construct it estimates, the population, the metric, and its known distortions. Most numbers can't survive it. The kicker is the capability-versus-propensity split: "the model gets 71% on math" is three different claims depending on whether that's a single try or the best of sixty-four, and the whole story of training reasoning models is dragging capability down into propensity, which you can't even see if you only logged one number.
Metrics and their math
A metric is the function that turns a scored sample into a number, and picking the wrong one quietly changes the construct you are measuring. Exact-match and token-F1 answer different questions about the same output; pass@1 and pass@k measure propensity and capability respectively (chapter 1); a calibration metric ignores accuracy entirely and asks whether the model's confidence is honest. This chapter is the arithmetic. I derive the two metrics that people most often get subtly wrong, the pass@k unbiased estimator and the Brier score, and the lab shows the pass@k bias as a concrete number so you can watch the naive estimator lie.
[BRM] Raschka ch. 3 motivates why a reasoning model needs a verifiable, low-variance signal, which is exactly what a well-chosen metric provides; [RLHF] Lambert Part 3 covers the metric-choice pitfalls from the alignment side. Read the pass@k derivation here alongside Raschka's discussion of sampling many candidate solutions: the estimator below is what makes "we sampled 64 and one worked" into an honest number instead of an anecdote.
Theory
Exact match
The simplest metric. A sample scores 1 if the extracted answer equals the reference exactly (after normalization), else 0. The eval score is the mean over items, which is just accuracy. Its virtue is that it is unambiguous and cheap; its vice is that "exactly" hides a normalization policy that is doing real work. Lowercasing, stripping punctuation, trimming whitespace, collapsing 1,000 to 1000, mapping forty-two to 42: every one of these is a decision that moves the score, and every one is construct-irrelevant variance if you get it wrong. For math I normalize numeric answers (strip commas, currency, trailing zeros after a decimal point) before comparing; for short-answer QA I lowercase and strip articles and punctuation. The metric is exact-match; the policy is where the judgment lives, and it belongs in the datasheet from chapter 1.
Formally, with items , extracted answer , reference , and a normalizer ,
Token-level F1
Exact-match is brutal when the answer is a phrase: "the Battle of Hastings" versus "Battle of Hastings" scores 0 under EM but is obviously right. Token-F1, the standard for extractive QA like SQuAD, softens this by treating the answer as a bag of tokens and measuring overlap. Let be the multiset of predicted tokens and the gold tokens. Precision is the fraction of predicted tokens that are correct, recall is the fraction of gold tokens recovered, and F1 is their harmonic mean:
The intersection is a multiset intersection (token counts matter). F1 rewards partial overlap, which is what you want for phrase answers and exactly what you do not want for a math final answer, where "42" and "142" share a token but one is wrong. Match the metric to the construct: F1 for phrase-valued answers, EM for atomic answers.
pass@k and the unbiased estimator
For generative tasks where a verifier can check each sample (code that runs against tests, math with a checkable answer), the natural capability question is: if the model gets tries, does at least one succeed? That is pass@k. Its true value for a single problem, if each sample independently succeeds with probability , is
The trouble is that I do not know , and the obvious fix is badly biased. Two wrong-ish and one right way to estimate it:
The naive per-problem experiment. Draw exactly samples, score 1 if any passes. This is unbiased for a single , but it wastes samples (you cannot reuse them to estimate pass@k at other values of ) and it is high variance. Worse, in practice people generate samples once and want pass@k for several , which pushes them to the plug-in.
The plug-in (naive) estimator. Generate samples, count correct, estimate , and plug into equation (3): . This is biased, and the lab makes the bias visible.
The unbiased estimator (from the Codex/HumanEval paper, Chen et al. 2021). Generate samples, count correct. Estimate pass@k as one minus the probability that a randomly chosen size- subset of the samples contains no correct sample:
Draw the samples i.i.d., so the number correct is . I claim , which makes equation (4) unbiased for equation (3). Take the expectation over :
Use the subset-swap identity (choosing items then from the rest equals choosing items then from the rest). The cancels:
Since for , the sum runs to . Pull out :
because the remaining sum is the full binomial expansion of . Therefore , exactly. The naive plug-in has no such guarantee: is concave for (since ), so by Jensen's inequality , and the plug-in is biased low. The lab measures the gap.
To report pass@k over a dataset, compute equation (4) per problem and average across problems. Numerically, do not form the binomials directly (they overflow); compute the ratio as a product, which the lab does.
Majority vote (self-consistency)
pass@k asks whether any sample is right, which needs a verifier. When you have no verifier at inference time but can sample many chains, majority vote (self-consistency) asks which answer the samples agree on. Sample chains, extract each final answer, and return the mode. The metric scores 1 if the modal answer matches the reference. This is a propensity-flavored aggregation that trades compute for accuracy: it works when correct reasoning paths converge on the same answer while errors scatter. Formally, with extracted answers ,
Majority vote and pass@k bracket the model: pass@k is optimistic (needs one right answer plus an oracle verifier), majority vote is realistic (no oracle, must self-agree). The gap between them measures how often the model knows the answer versus how often it can find it without help, which is again the capability/propensity split from chapter 1.
Rubric scoring
Not every construct has a checkable answer. For open-ended generation (explanations, summaries, dialogue) the score comes from a rubric applied by a grader, human or model. A rubric decomposes quality into criteria (correctness, completeness, coherence) each scored on a scale, then aggregates, usually by a weighted mean:
The metric here is only as good as the rubric's inter-rater reliability and the grader's calibration; model-graded rubric scoring is chapter 6's entire subject. The thing to internalize now is that rubric scoring reintroduces every construct-validity threat from chapter 1 at the grader level: a lenient or sycophantic judge is construct-irrelevant variance wearing a lab coat. For the thesis I lean on rubric scoring as little as possible and on verifiable scorers (chapter 4) as much as possible, precisely because a verifier has no opinion.
When a dataset has subgroups of unequal size (GSM8K by difficulty, MMLU by subject), there are two ways to average and they disagree. Micro-averaging pools every item and takes one mean, so large subgroups dominate: . Macro-averaging computes each subgroup's accuracy then averages the subgroups equally, so a tiny subgroup counts as much as a huge one: . MMLU's headline number is macro over 57 subjects; a naive pooled mean would be micro and would differ. Neither is wrong, but they answer different questions ("how often is the model right on a random item" versus "how well does it do across topics evenly"), and reporting one while implying the other is a quiet construct mismatch. Inspect's accuracy() metric micro-averages by default; grouped reporting requires either a grouped metric or slicing the log by the metadata I attached in the dataset mapping (chapter 3). Whichever I use goes in the datasheet, because a committee comparing my number to a published one needs to know which average produced it.
Calibration and the Brier score
Accuracy asks whether the model is right. Calibration asks whether the model's stated confidence is honest: when it says 80%, is it right 80% of the time? A model can be accurate and miscalibrated (right often but always says 99%) or calibrated and inaccurate (right 40% of the time and says 40%). For a reasoning model whose confidence I might use to route, abstain, or weight votes, calibration is its own construct with its own metric.
The Brier score is the mean squared error of probabilistic predictions. For binary outcomes with forecast probabilities and outcomes ,
It ranges from 0 (perfect) to 1 (perfectly wrong), and it is a proper scoring rule: it is minimized in expectation by reporting your true belief, so a model cannot game it by hedging. Its value is illuminated by the Murphy decomposition.
Bin the predictions into groups by forecast value, so group has items all forecasting , with observed hit rate . Let be the overall base rate. Then the Brier score decomposes exactly as
Reliability is the mean squared gap between forecast confidence and realized frequency; it is 0 exactly when the model is calibrated, and it is the term I want small. Resolution rewards forecasts that separate outcomes (bins whose hit rates differ from the base rate); it is subtracted, so more resolution is better. Uncertainty is the irreducible variance of the outcome itself, set by the base rate, independent of the model. The sketch: write within each bin, expand, and note the cross term vanishes because by definition of ; then add and subtract inside the outcome-variance piece and use for binary outcomes. The decomposition is why Brier beats bare accuracy for calibration work: it separates "is the confidence honest" (reliability) from "is the confidence useful" (resolution).
A close cousin worth naming is Expected Calibration Error, the reliability term without the squaring, using absolute gaps and probability-weighted bins:
ECE is more interpretable ("on average the confidence is off by 7 points") but is not a proper scoring rule and is sensitive to binning, so I report Brier as the headline and ECE as the human-readable gloss.
If I reward a model purely on accuracy with a confidence threshold, it learns to state maximal confidence always, because unconfident-but-correct and confident-but-correct score the same. Brier punishes that: stating 99% and being wrong costs , near the maximum. This is the same reason verifiable rewards in Part V must be designed as proper incentives; a metric that can be satisfied without doing the thing you care about will be, especially once you optimize against it (Goodhart). Choosing a proper metric is choosing an incentive.
Tooling
Both Inspect and lm-evaluation-harness ship these metrics, and knowing which name maps to which equation saves you from silently comparing apples to oranges. In Inspect, metrics are functions attached to a scorer: accuracy() is exact-match's mean (equation 1), mean() and stderr() give you the reading and its noise floor together (the chapter-1 discipline, enforced by the tool), and pass_at_k style aggregation is available for multi-sample tasks. In the harness, the task YAML names a metric (exact_match, acc, f1) and a filter pipeline that does the answer extraction and normalization before the metric sees the string, which is where equation (1)'s normalization policy actually lives.
The load-bearing point for the thesis: whatever metric I use for measurement in Part III, I have to be able to reuse as a reward in Part V, and rewards must be proper and verifier-backed. That biases me hard toward exact-match on verifiable answers and pass@k for capability probes, and away from rubric scoring in the training loop. When I do want calibration, I compute Brier from logged per-sample confidences, which both tools can emit into their logs. The metric is not an afterthought bolted onto a run; it is the thing the whole instrument exists to compute, so I pick it first and design the extraction and normalization to serve it.
Lab
The artifact is a script that estimates pass@k both the naive way and the unbiased way against a known ground truth, so the bias is not a claim in a paper but a number on my screen. I fix a true per-sample success probability , simulate a model by drawing Bernoulli samples per trial, estimate pass@k both ways over many trials, and compare each estimator's average to the exact truth .
uv init passk-bias
cd passk-bias
uv add numpy
"""pass@k estimators: naive plug-in vs the unbiased combinatorial estimator.
The unbiased estimator is from Chen et al. 2021 (HumanEval/Codex):
pass@k = 1 - C(n-c, k) / C(n, k)
computed as a numerically stable product to avoid binomial overflow.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
def pass_at_k_unbiased(n: int, c: int, k: int) -> float:
"""Unbiased pass@k given c correct out of n samples (n >= k)."""
if k > n:
raise ValueError("k must be <= n")
if n - c < k:
# fewer than k incorrect samples => every size-k subset hits a correct one
return 1.0
# 1 - prod_{i=0}^{k-1} (n-c-i)/(n-i) == 1 - C(n-c,k)/C(n,k)
prob_all_wrong = 1.0
for i in range(k):
prob_all_wrong *= (n - c - i) / (n - i)
return 1.0 - prob_all_wrong
def pass_at_k_naive(n: int, c: int, k: int) -> float:
"""Biased plug-in estimator: 1 - (1 - c/n)^k."""
p_hat = c / n
return 1.0 - (1.0 - p_hat) ** k
"""Show the pass@k bias numerically.
For a known true p, simulate many 'problems', each with n independent samples,
and estimate pass@k both ways. The unbiased estimator's average should match the
analytic truth 1-(1-p)^k; the naive plug-in should sit noticeably below it.
Run: uv run python -m passk.experiment
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
from passk.estimators import pass_at_k_naive, pass_at_k_unbiased
RNG = np.random.default_rng(0)
def truth(p: float, k: int) -> float:
return 1.0 - (1.0 - p) ** k
def run(p: float, n: int, k: int, trials: int) -> tuple[float, float, float]:
naive, unbiased = np.empty(trials), np.empty(trials)
for t in range(trials):
c = int(RNG.binomial(n, p)) # samples correct this trial
naive[t] = pass_at_k_naive(n, c, k)
unbiased[t] = pass_at_k_unbiased(n, c, k)
return truth(p, k), float(naive.mean()), float(unbiased.mean())
def main() -> None:
n, trials = 20, 100_000
print(f"n={n} samples/problem, {trials:,} simulated problems each row\n")
header = f"{'p':>5} {'k':>3} {'true':>8} {'naive':>9} {'unbiased':>9} " \
f"{'naive_bias':>11} {'unb_bias':>9}"
print(header)
print("-" * len(header))
for p in (0.05, 0.1, 0.3):
for k in (1, 5, 10, 20):
tru, nav, unb = run(p, n, k, trials)
print(f"{p:>5.2f} {k:>3} {tru:>8.4f} {nav:>9.4f} {unb:>9.4f} "
f"{nav - tru:>+11.4f} {unb - tru:>+9.4f}")
print("\nnaive_bias = naive_avg - true ; unb_bias = unbiased_avg - true")
print("The unbiased estimator's bias should be ~0 (Monte-Carlo noise only);")
print("the naive estimator should be biased LOW and worst near k = n.")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it.
uv run python -m passk.experiment
What you should see
A table where the unbiased column tracks the true column to within Monte-Carlo noise (the unb_bias column near ), while the naive column sits systematically below true, with the gap growing as approaches . At the truth is ; the naive plug-in averages meaningfully lower not because of any single count (at the mean the naive term is essentially exact) but because the per-problem estimate is concave in and has a whole distribution. Jensen's inequality over that distribution pushes the average below the value at the mean, and the probability mass piled at the low counts (a problem with contributes exactly , one with contributes only a small term) is what drags the mean down. The sign is always the same: naive_bias is negative, matching the Jensen argument in the derivation, that the concave plug-in is biased low. The magnitude is largest exactly where you are most tempted to use pass@k, at large probing capability.
The artifacts on disk are passk/estimators.py (the two estimators, the unbiased one written as a stable product so it survives real like 64 or 256) and passk/experiment.py (the bias demonstration). When I report a pass@64 capability number for my 8B model later in the book, it comes out of pass_at_k_unbiased, and this lab is the receipt showing why the other function would have quietly understated the model's headroom, which is the headroom RL is going to convert into propensity.
"The pass@k you're quoting is probably biased low, and here's the two-line fix." Everyone reporting how often their model solves a problem in tries reaches for the obvious estimate: measure the success rate, then compute one-minus-(one-minus-rate)-to-the-. It's wrong, and it's wrong in a specific direction: it understates the model's true capability, worst exactly when you sample many times to probe the ceiling. The post walks through the one-paragraph combinatorics proof that the plug-in is biased by Jensen's inequality, gives the unbiased combinatorial estimator from the Codex paper, and then, the fun part, shows the bias as a live number from a 30-line simulation. The moral generalizes past pass@k: a metric is a claim with a sampling distribution, and "obvious" estimators of nonlinear quantities are biased by default. If you're going to put a number in a table a committee reads, you should be able to say which way it's wrong when it's wrong.
Inspect I: tasks, datasets, solvers
Inspect (inspect_ai) is the framework I build custom instruments in, and its design is a near-literal encoding of chapter 1's ontology: an eval is a Task, a Task binds a Dataset (the items), a Solver (how the model is prompted and, later, how it acts), and a Scorer (how a finished sample becomes a number). This chapter covers the first three; scorers get chapter 4, because they are where measurement turns into reward and they deserve their own treatment. By the end I have a first custom task running end-to-end against the vLLM endpoint from Part II, producing a structured log on disk that I can replay and re-score.
[BRM] Raschka ch. 3 builds an eval loop by hand to make the moving parts visible; Inspect is the same loop, factored into reusable abstractions so I stop rewriting the plumbing. Read Raschka's from-scratch loop as the "why", then this chapter as the "how, without the boilerplate". [RLHF] Part 3 on evaluation infrastructure motivates why an auditable log (not just a final score) is the real deliverable.
Theory
The four abstractions and the log
Inspect factors an eval into four objects, and the factoring is the point: each is swappable without touching the others, so I can hold the dataset and scorer fixed and vary only the solver to ask "does chain-of-thought help?", or hold the solver fixed and swap the model to ask "does INT4 degrade reasoning?".
Sampleis one item: aninput(the prompt, a string or a message list), atarget(the reference answer), and optionalchoicesandmetadata. ADatasetis a sequence of samples, loaded from JSON, CSV, a HuggingFace dataset, or built in memory.Solveris a function that transforms aTaskState(the running conversation plus scratch state) toward a completed answer. Solvers compose: a chain ofsystem_message,prompt_template, andgenerateis itself a solver, and a custom multi-turn solver is just a function that callsgeneratemore than once.Scorerconsumes the finishedTaskStateand thetargetand emits aScore. Chapter 4.Taskbinds a dataset, a solver, and a scorer, plus config (epochs, message limits, the metrics to aggregate).
Running a task produces an eval log, a structured record (.eval files under logs/) containing every sample's full message transcript, the model output, the token usage, the score, and the run's configuration and git state. The log, not the printed accuracy, is the deliverable. It is the audit object from chapter 1 made concrete, and because it stores the full transcripts it can be re-scored later without re-running the model, which is the property that makes Inspect the on-ramp to reward design.
A Solver has the signature async def solve(state: TaskState, generate: Generate) -> TaskState. The TaskState carries state.messages (the running chat transcript), state.user_prompt (a handle to the first user message, convenient for templating), state.output (the latest model completion, populated by generate), state.metadata (the sample's metadata), and state.store (a scratch dict for passing values between solvers in a chain). A solver mutates the state and returns it; the next solver in the chain receives the mutated state. generate is an injected callable that runs the model on the current messages and writes the result into state.output. This is why multi-turn evals are natural in Inspect: a multi-turn solver just appends messages and calls generate again, and each call is one model turn recorded in the log. The whole framework is a disciplined loop over an async state transformer, which is exactly the serve to evaluate loop of this book with the serving half pointed at my local vLLM.
Solvers compose, and composition is where the construct lives
The solver is where I encode how I am probing the construct, and small solver choices are large construct choices. A bare generate measures the model's zero-shot propensity. Prefixing a system_message that says "think step by step" measures propensity under a reasoning prompt, a different construct. Wrapping with prompt_template to inject few-shot exemplars measures few-shot capability. A multi-turn solver that lets the model critique and revise its own answer measures self-correction, yet another construct. None of these is "the" measurement; each is a deliberate operationalization, and the solver code is the operationalization made executable. This is why I keep solvers explicit and version them: the datasheet from chapter 1 says what construct I claim to measure, and the solver is the proof of what I actually did.
For reasoning models specifically, the solver interacts with the model's own chain-of-thought behavior. A reasoning model already emits a long deliberation before its answer; my solver's job is often just to (a) instruct the output format so the scorer can find the final answer, and (b) optionally cap or shape the reasoning. Over-prompting a reasoning model (stacking my own "think step by step" on top of its native reasoning) can hurt, so the solver is a lever I tune, not a fixed recipe.
Datasets are more than a list, and every loader choice is a sampling decision
The Dataset abstraction looks trivial (a sequence of Samples) but it hides three decisions that quietly change what I measure. First, where the items come from: Inspect loads from JSON/JSONL (json_dataset), CSV (csv_dataset), a HuggingFace hub dataset (hf_dataset), or an in-memory list (MemoryDataset). For the thesis I keep a local copy of every dataset I evaluate against, because a hub dataset can change under me between runs and silently break reproducibility, which is a comparability failure exactly like chapter 5's "why published numbers differ". A pinned local JSONL is a controlled instrument; a live hub pull is not.
Second, the record-to-sample mapping, the record_to_sample function, is where I decide what the input and target actually are, and it is construct-defining. If the raw record has a full chain-of-thought answer and I map target to the whole thing, my scorer will grade the reasoning text; if I map target to only the final number, my scorer grades the answer. Same dataset, different construct, decided in one function. This is also where I attach metadata (difficulty, subject, source split) that I later slice the results by, so a slice like "accuracy on the hardest quartile" is available without re-running.
Third, how many items and in what order. Inspect's --limit samples a prefix (useful for a fast smoke test, dangerous as a reported number because a prefix is not a random sample), and --epochs runs each item multiple times, which is how I get the multiple samples per problem that pass@k and majority vote (chapter 2) need. Epochs are the bridge from single-sample propensity to multi-sample capability: --epochs 8 with a sampling temperature gives me eight rollouts per item, and the scorer aggregates them. The order and seed matter too, because a paired comparison across models (chapter 5) is only valid if both models saw the identical items in the identical order, so I fix the seed and never rely on --limit for a number that goes in a table.
Before I launch an epochs-based run I want to know what it costs in GPU time, and the arithmetic is simple enough to do in my head. With items, epochs (samples per item), and a solver that issues model turns per sample (1 for single-turn, 2 for the self-revision solver below), the number of generate calls is
If each call produces on average output tokens and the endpoint sustains tokens/second in decode (measured in Part II on the baseline machine), the decode wall-clock floor is
For a pass@8 capability probe over the full 1319-item GSM8K set with a single-turn solver (, , ), that is generations; at say output tokens each, tokens, and at a decode rate (record on the baseline machine) the floor is seconds. The point of the estimate is not precision but planning: multi-sample capability probes cost times a single run, multi-turn solvers cost another factor of , and on one GPU those factors decide whether a run is a coffee break or an overnight job. I compute equations (1) and (2) before every large run and record the actual against the estimate.
Tooling
Install and point Inspect at the local endpoint
Inspect talks to any OpenAI-compatible endpoint, which is exactly what vLLM serves, so the model under test is the one I stood up in Part II. Set up the eval project with uv.
uv init thesis-evals
cd thesis-evals
uv add inspect-ai openai
Inspect reaches an OpenAI-compatible server through the openai provider plus two environment variables pointing at vLLM instead of api.openai.com. Assuming vLLM serves my 8B model under the name qwen-8b on port 8000 (from Part II), I put the connection in a .env file that Inspect loads automatically.
# Point Inspect's OpenAI provider at the local vLLM endpoint.
OPENAI_BASE_URL=http://localhost:8000/v1
OPENAI_API_KEY=EMPTY
# vLLM ignores the key but the OpenAI client requires a non-empty value.
With that, the model string openai/qwen-8b routes to vLLM. Nothing else in Inspect changes, which is the whole appeal of the OpenAI-compatible contract: the eval framework does not know or care that the model is local.
The part after openai/ is passed verbatim as the model field in the OpenAI request, and vLLM rejects a request whose model name does not match what it was launched with (--served-model-name). If inspect eval returns a 404 or "model not found", check the served name with curl -s http://localhost:8000/v1/models | python -m json.tool and make the string after openai/ match it exactly. This is the single most common first-run failure, and it is a naming mismatch, not an Inspect bug.
The abstractions in code
A minimal task is three objects and a decorator. @task marks a function that returns a Task; Inspect discovers it by name.
from inspect_ai import Task, task
from inspect_ai.dataset import Sample, MemoryDataset
from inspect_ai.solver import generate, system_message, chain
from inspect_ai.scorer import match
@task
def tiny() -> Task:
return Task(
dataset=MemoryDataset([
Sample(input="What is 17 + 26?", target="43"),
]),
solver=chain(system_message("Answer with only the number."), generate()),
scorer=match(numeric=True),
)
match(numeric=True) extracts the last number from the output and compares it to the target, a deliberately crude scorer I use here only so the task runs end-to-end; chapter 4 replaces it with a real verifier. The solver is a chain: set a system message, then generate. That is the whole shape, and everything that follows is elaboration of the dataset and the solver.
Lab
The artifact is a task package: a self-contained GSM8K-style reasoning task with its own dataset, a chain-of-thought solver, a multi-turn self-revision variant, and the eval logs it produces. It is fully local, no network needed, so it runs against vLLM alone and the logs become the reusable audit object I carry into chapter 4.
Lay the package out under the uv project from the Tooling section:
thesis-evals/
.env
evals/
data/gsm8k_mini.jsonl
gsm8k_task.py
logs/ # created by the run
First the dataset, a small hand-built JSONL so the lab is self-contained and the answer key is visible. In real use I would load the full GSM8K test split via hf_dataset, but a mini set makes the mechanics inspectable and keeps the first run to a few seconds on one GPU.
{"question": "A baker has 3 trays with 12 muffins each. He sells 20 muffins. How many are left?", "answer": "16"}
{"question": "Sara reads 15 pages a day for 6 days, then 25 pages on the 7th day. How many pages total?", "answer": "115"}
{"question": "A tank holds 240 liters. It drains at 8 liters per minute. How many minutes to empty?", "answer": "30"}
{"question": "Tom buys 4 packs of 6 pencils and gives away 9. How many pencils remain?", "answer": "15"}
{"question": "A class of 28 students splits into teams of 4. How many teams?", "answer": "7"}
Now the task. It shows the three abstractions doing real work: a record_to_sample mapping teaches the Dataset layer, a templated chain-of-thought solver teaches prompt templating, and a second @task with a custom multi-turn solver teaches multi-turn generation. I keep the crude built-in scorer here on purpose and flag it, so chapter 4 has something concrete to improve.
"""A first custom Inspect task: GSM8K-style reasoning against local vLLM.
Two tasks share one dataset:
gsm8k_cot - single-turn chain-of-thought
gsm8k_revise - multi-turn: answer, self-critique, then revise
Run (single-turn, 5 items):
uv run inspect eval evals/gsm8k_task.py@gsm8k_cot \
--model openai/qwen-8b --limit 5
Scoring here uses the crude built-in match(numeric=True); chapter 4 replaces it
with a verifiable scorer whose logs re-score without re-running the model.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from inspect_ai import Task, task
from inspect_ai.dataset import Sample, json_dataset
from inspect_ai.model import ChatMessageUser
from inspect_ai.scorer import match
from inspect_ai.solver import (
Generate,
Solver,
TaskState,
chain,
generate,
prompt_template,
solver,
system_message,
)
# --- Dataset -------------------------------------------------------------
# Map one JSONL record into a Sample. This is the Dataset abstraction: the
# eval never sees raw records, only normalized (input, target) pairs.
def record_to_sample(record: dict) -> Sample:
return Sample(
input=record["question"],
target=record["answer"],
metadata={"source": "gsm8k_mini"},
)
def gsm8k_dataset():
return json_dataset("evals/data/gsm8k_mini.jsonl", sample_fields=record_to_sample)
# --- Prompt templating ---------------------------------------------------
COT_SYSTEM = (
"You are a careful math tutor. Reason step by step, then on the final "
"line write exactly 'ANSWER: <number>' with no units and no extra text."
)
# {prompt} is filled with the sample input. Templating is a solver.
COT_TEMPLATE = "Solve this problem.\n\n{prompt}\n\nShow your work, then the final line."
# --- Single-turn chain-of-thought solver ---------------------------------
@task
def gsm8k_cot() -> Task:
return Task(
dataset=gsm8k_dataset(),
solver=chain(
system_message(COT_SYSTEM),
prompt_template(COT_TEMPLATE),
generate(),
),
scorer=match(numeric=True), # crude on purpose; ch.4 upgrades this
)
# --- Multi-turn self-revision solver -------------------------------------
# Demonstrates a multi-turn Solver: generate, inject a critique prompt as a new
# user turn, generate again. Each generate() call is one model turn in the log.
@solver
def self_revise() -> Solver:
async def solve(state: TaskState, generate: Generate) -> TaskState:
state = await generate(state) # first attempt
state.messages.append(
ChatMessageUser(
content=(
"Re-check your arithmetic step by step. If you find an "
"error, correct it. End with exactly 'ANSWER: <number>'."
)
)
)
state = await generate(state) # revised attempt
return state
return solve
@task
def gsm8k_revise() -> Task:
return Task(
dataset=gsm8k_dataset(),
solver=chain(system_message(COT_SYSTEM), self_revise()),
scorer=match(numeric=True),
)
Run both variants against the local model. The @taskname suffix selects one of the two tasks in the file.
# single-turn chain-of-thought
uv run inspect eval evals/gsm8k_task.py@gsm8k_cot --model openai/qwen-8b --limit 5
# multi-turn self-revision on the same items
uv run inspect eval evals/gsm8k_task.py@gsm8k_revise --model openai/qwen-8b --limit 5
# open the interactive log viewer
uv run inspect view --log-dir logs
What you should see
Each run prints a live progress table and a final summary line with accuracy and stderr (the reading and its noise floor together, exactly the chapter-1 discipline the tool enforces for free), plus the token usage and wall-clock time. On the five-item mini set expect the accuracy to be a coarse fraction like 4/5; the number is not the point at this size, the mechanism is. Under logs/ you now have one .eval file per run: a structured, replayable record of every sample's full transcript, the model's chain-of-thought, the extracted answer, and the score. Open inspect view and you can click into any sample and read exactly what the model saw and produced, including, for gsm8k_revise, both the first attempt and the revised second turn as separate messages. On the baseline machine, record the accuracy, wall-clock, and tokens/sec for each variant with the date and driver version, since these are the first real readings off my custom instrument.
The artifact on disk is the task package (evals/gsm8k_task.py plus evals/data/gsm8k_mini.jsonl) and the logs/ directory of eval logs. Two things to notice, because they define the next chapter. First, gsm8k_revise and gsm8k_cot differ only in the solver, one line of substance, yet they measure genuinely different constructs (raw reasoning versus reasoning-with-self-correction), which is the composability claim from the theory section paying off. Second, the scoring is the weak link: match(numeric=True) grabs the last number and will misfire whenever the model's format wanders. The log preserves every transcript, so I can fix the scorer and re-score these exact runs without paying for generation again. That re-scorability is what chapter 4 exploits to turn a scorer into a verifiable, auditable reward.
"Your eval framework should let you change the question without re-running the model." The unglamorous superpower of a well-factored eval harness is that it separates four things that people usually tangle together: the items, how you prompt, how you score, and the run itself. Once they're separate, you can ask genuinely different questions of the same model by changing one of them in isolation, does chain-of-thought help (swap the solver), does INT4 hurt (swap the model), was my grader too lenient (swap the scorer and re-score the saved transcripts, no GPU needed). The post would use one concrete before/after: a five-line single-turn solver and a five-line multi-turn self-revision solver that measure different cognitive abilities of the same model on the same problems, and the fact that the second one costs nothing extra to design because the framework already recorded everything. The deeper point is that the log, not the leaderboard number, is the artifact worth keeping.
Inspect II: scorers, verifiers, sandboxes
The scorer is the most consequential object in the whole eval, because it is the function that decides what "correct" means, and in this book it has a second life: the scorer I write to measure a reasoning model in Part III is the same function that rewards it in Part V. That dual role is why I treat scorers with more care than any other part of the pipeline. A lenient scorer inflates a measurement; a lenient scorer used as a reward teaches the model to exploit the leniency. This chapter builds verifiable scorers (regex extraction, symbolic equivalence, sandboxed unit-test execution), explains why model-graded scoring is a last resort for verifiable domains, and treats the Inspect log as an audit object I can re-score without touching the GPU. The lab produces the exact scorer that reappears in chapter 7.3 as a reward function.
[RLHF] Lambert Part 3 is the load-bearing reference here: it draws the line between verifiable rewards (a checker with no opinion) and learned or model-graded rewards (a checker with opinions, hence exploitable), and this chapter is the eval-side realization of that distinction. [BRM] Raschka ch. 3 shows why a reasoning model wants a programmatic verifier: the final answer is checkable, so the reward can be cheap and honest. Read the sandbox section against Lambert's discussion of reward hacking, since executing model-written code is where measurement and safety meet.
Theory
The scorer API and what a Score is
An Inspect scorer is an async function that receives the finished TaskState and the sample's Target, and returns a Score. The decorator @scorer(metrics=[...]) registers it and declares how its values aggregate across the dataset (typically accuracy() and stderr(), the reading and its noise floor from chapter 1). A Score carries four things worth keeping distinct:
value: the grade, either a categoricalCORRECT/INCORRECT(stored as"C"/"I") or a number. This is what the metric aggregates.answer: the extracted answer string, so the log shows what was graded, not just the grade.explanation: why this grade, the audit breadcrumb.metadata: anything else worth recording (the regex that matched, the sympy normal form, the failing test).
Keeping answer and explanation populated is not cosmetic. They are what make the log a re-readable audit object rather than a column of ones and zeros, and they are what let a committee member (or future-me) reconstruct why item 47 scored the way it did without rerunning anything.
Every generative scorer does two things: pull a candidate answer out of free text (extraction), then decide whether that candidate is correct (verification). Tangling them produces scorers that are hard to debug and easy to fool. I always factor them: an extract(completion) -> str | None that owns the regex and normalization, and a verify(candidate, target) -> bool that owns the correctness judgment (numeric equality, symbolic equivalence, test execution). The separation pays off three ways. First, extraction failures and verification failures show up as different explanation strings, so I can tell "the model gave no parseable answer" from "the model gave a wrong answer", which are different construct signals. Second, I can unit-test verify in isolation against known pairs. Third, when this becomes a reward in chapter 7, the same factoring lets me shape partial credit (extraction succeeded but wrong answer) differently from total failure (no answer at all), which matters for reward density.
Programmatic versus model-graded, and why verifiable wins for reasoning
There are two families of scorer. Programmatic scorers compute correctness with code: string match, numeric equality, symbolic equivalence, running unit tests. They are deterministic, free, fast, and have no opinion, which means they cannot be sweet-talked, cannot be sycophantic, and reproduce exactly. Their limit is that they only work when correctness is checkable in code. Model-graded scorers ask another model to judge, via a rubric (chapter 6). They handle open-ended constructs that no regex can, at the cost of introducing a second model's noise, cost, latency, and biases into the measurement, every construct-validity threat from chapter 1 relocated into the grader.
For the reasoning tasks the thesis lives on, the final answer is verifiable, so I use programmatic scorers and reserve model grading for genuinely open-ended work. This is not an aesthetic preference. A verifiable scorer is a proper signal in the sense of chapter 2: it is minimized (as an error) only by actually producing the correct answer, so optimizing against it optimizes the construct. A model-graded scorer is a learned signal, and optimizing hard against a learned signal finds its blind spots (reward hacking). The single most important design rule of this whole book is: use the most verifiable scorer the construct allows, because that scorer is the one I can safely turn into a reward.
Verifiable scorer types
Three programmatic verifiers cover most of the reasoning surface.
- Regex / normalized match. Extract with a pattern (
ANSWER:\s*(-?\d[\d,]*\.?\d*)), normalize (strip commas, trailing zeros), compare. Cheap and right for numeric final answers. The risk is brittleness: too strict and you score correct-but-differently-formatted answers as wrong (construct-irrelevant variance), too loose and you score wrong answers as right. The regex is a policy that belongs in the datasheet. - Symbolic equivalence. For math where
1/2,0.5, and\frac{1}{2}are the same answer, string match fails but a computer-algebra check succeeds. Parse both sides and test whether their difference simplifies to zero. This removes format sensitivity that regex cannot, at the cost of a parser that can itself misfire on adversarial strings. - Unit-test execution. For code, correctness is "the tests pass". Extract the code, run it against a test suite, score by pass/fail. This is the most honest reasoning verifier there is (the compiler and the tests have no opinion) and the most dangerous to run, because it executes model-written code. That danger is what sandboxes exist for.
The reason a verifiable scorer graduates so cleanly into a reward is that its dataset average is the quantity reinforcement learning maximizes. Let the scorer be on a completion , and let the model define a distribution over completions for prompt . The eval accuracy on a single prompt, estimated by sampling completions, is a Monte Carlo estimate of
which is exactly the per-prompt success probability from chapter 2's pass@k. Now set the reward equal to the scorer, . The RL objective (Part V) is , which is the dataset-averaged accuracy in equation (1). So training to maximize the reward is training to maximize the eval metric, provided the scorer used as reward is the identical function I measured with. That identity is the whole architectural bet of this book, and it holds only because is a deterministic verifiable function of : a model-graded would make depend on a second noisy model, and equation (1) would estimate "what the judge thinks", not "whether the answer is right". Verifiability is what makes the measurement and the reward the same object.
Sandboxes: executing untrusted output safely
The moment a scorer runs model-generated code, or a solver lets the model call tools that touch a shell, filesystem, or network, I am executing untrusted output on my machine. Inspect's answer is the sandbox: an isolated execution environment (Docker by default) that the solver and scorer reach through a sandbox() handle, with sandbox().exec(...) running commands inside the container rather than on the host. The container is disposable, resource-limited, and network-restricted, so a model that writes rm -rf / or tries to exfiltrate data hits container walls, not mine. For the thesis this matters twice: agentic evals (chapter 1's fourth family) need tools, and unit-test scorers need to run code, and both must be sandboxed. On the 16GB baseline machine the sandbox runs on CPU alongside the GPU-resident model server, so it costs container overhead, not VRAM.
It is tempting, for a quick local run, to score code by exec-ing it in the same Python process. Do not, even once, even on "trusted" models. The model's output is untrusted by definition (that is what you are evaluating), and a reasoning model exploring solution space will eventually emit something that deletes a file, opens a socket, or hangs. Worse, when this scorer becomes a reward and the model is optimized against it, reward hacking actively searches for scorer exploits, and an un-sandboxed executor turns a reward hack into host compromise. The sandbox is not optional hardening; it is the boundary that lets code execution be a scorer at all. Budget the Docker setup cost once and never run model code outside it.
The log as an audit object, and re-scoring
Because chapter 3's eval log stores every sample's full transcript and model output, scoring is separable in time from generation. Inspect exposes this directly: inspect score takes an existing .eval log and a scorer and produces new scores from the saved transcripts, no model calls. This is the property that makes the log an audit object rather than a receipt. I can run a model once (the expensive part, the GPU part), then score it many ways: fix a too-strict regex, add symbolic equivalence, try a stricter rubric, all against the identical transcripts, for free. It is also how I keep measurements honest across a project: if I improve my verifier in month three, I re-score month-one logs with it and the comparison stays apples-to-apples. And it is the mechanism by which a scorer graduates into a reward. A reward function is exactly "a scorer applied to a rollout", and Inspect's re-scoring is the small-scale rehearsal of the reward loop I build in Part V.
Tooling
The scorer decorator, the categorical grades, and the aggregation metrics come from inspect_ai.scorer; the sandbox handle from inspect_ai.util. A verifiable scorer skeleton:
from inspect_ai.scorer import scorer, accuracy, stderr, Score, Target, CORRECT, INCORRECT
from inspect_ai.solver import TaskState
@scorer(metrics=[accuracy(), stderr()])
def my_verifier():
async def score(state: TaskState, target: Target) -> Score:
answer = extract(state.output.completion) # extraction
if answer is None:
return Score(value=INCORRECT, answer=None, explanation="no parseable answer")
ok = verify(answer, target.text) # verification
return Score(value=CORRECT if ok else INCORRECT, answer=answer,
explanation="symbolic-equal" if ok else "mismatch")
return score
For sandboxed execution the task declares a sandbox (Task(..., sandbox="docker")) and the scorer runs code through the handle:
from inspect_ai.util import sandbox
result = await sandbox().exec(cmd=["python", "-c", code], timeout=10)
passed = result.success and result.returncode == 0
The uv project from chapter 3 already has inspect-ai; add sympy for symbolic checks. Everything else is the same endpoint and the same served model.
uv add sympy
Lab
The artifact is evals/verify.py, a verifiable math scorer factored into extraction and verification, wired into an Inspect task, and re-used against chapter 3's saved logs to prove re-scorability. The verification core is written so that the very same function is importable in chapter 7.3 as a reward. I build the numeric/symbolic verifier fully here and include a sandboxed unit-test scorer as the code-domain counterpart.
"""Verifiable scorers for reasoning tasks.
The verification core `is_correct(answer, target)` is deliberately a pure
function of (candidate, reference). Chapter 7.3 imports it unchanged as the
verifiable reward: reward = 1.0 if is_correct(model_answer, gold) else 0.0.
Extraction and verification are kept separate (see chapter theory):
extract_answer(text) -> str | None # regex + normalization
is_correct(cand, ref) -> bool # numeric then symbolic equivalence
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import re
from sympy import simplify
from sympy.parsing.sympy_parser import parse_expr
from inspect_ai.scorer import CORRECT, INCORRECT, Score, Target, accuracy, scorer, stderr
from inspect_ai.solver import TaskState
_ANSWER_RE = re.compile(r"ANSWER:\s*(.+?)\s*$", re.IGNORECASE | re.MULTILINE)
def extract_answer(text: str) -> str | None:
"""Pull the last 'ANSWER: ...' payload from a completion, or None."""
matches = _ANSWER_RE.findall(text or "")
return matches[-1].strip() if matches else None
def _normalize(s: str) -> str:
s = s.strip().strip("$").replace(",", "").replace("\\", "")
s = re.sub(r"\s+", "", s)
return s
def is_correct(candidate: str, reference: str) -> bool:
"""True if candidate equals reference numerically or symbolically.
Pure, deterministic, no model calls. This is the reward core of ch. 7.3.
"""
if candidate is None:
return False
c, r = _normalize(candidate), _normalize(reference)
if c == r:
return True
# numeric equality with tolerance
try:
if abs(float(c) - float(r)) < 1e-6:
return True
except ValueError:
pass
# symbolic equivalence: does (candidate - reference) simplify to 0?
try:
if simplify(parse_expr(c) - parse_expr(r)) == 0:
return True
except Exception:
pass
return False
@scorer(metrics=[accuracy(), stderr()])
def math_verifier():
"""Programmatic, verifiable scorer. No opinion, reproducible, free."""
async def score(state: TaskState, target: Target) -> Score:
answer = extract_answer(state.output.completion)
if answer is None:
return Score(value=INCORRECT, answer=None,
explanation="extraction failed: no 'ANSWER:' line")
ok = is_correct(answer, target.text)
return Score(
value=CORRECT if ok else INCORRECT,
answer=answer,
explanation=("verified equal" if ok
else f"mismatch: got {answer!r}, want {target.text!r}"),
metadata={"extracted": answer},
)
return score
The code-domain counterpart runs model-written code against hidden tests inside a Docker sandbox. It is the same extract-then-verify shape, with verification delegated to the compiler and the tests.
"""Sandboxed unit-test scorer: correctness IS 'the tests pass'.
Requires a Docker sandbox on the Task (sandbox="docker"). The model's code is
NEVER run on the host, only inside the disposable container.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import re
from inspect_ai.scorer import CORRECT, INCORRECT, Score, Target, accuracy, scorer, stderr
from inspect_ai.solver import TaskState
from inspect_ai.util import sandbox
_CODE_RE = re.compile(r"```python\s*(.*?)```", re.DOTALL)
def extract_code(text: str) -> str | None:
blocks = _CODE_RE.findall(text or "")
return blocks[-1].strip() if blocks else None
@scorer(metrics=[accuracy(), stderr()])
def unit_test_scorer():
async def score(state: TaskState, target: Target) -> Score:
code = extract_code(state.output.completion)
if code is None:
return Score(value=INCORRECT, answer=None, explanation="no code block")
# target.text carries the test harness; concatenate and run in sandbox.
program = code + "\n\n" + target.text
try:
result = await sandbox().exec(cmd=["python", "-c", program], timeout=15)
except TimeoutError:
return Score(value=INCORRECT, answer=code, explanation="timeout (possible hang)")
passed = result.success and result.returncode == 0
return Score(
value=CORRECT if passed else INCORRECT,
answer=code,
explanation="tests passed" if passed else f"tests failed:\n{result.stderr[:500]}",
)
return score
Wire the numeric verifier into a task and, critically, re-score chapter 3's existing logs with it to prove the log is an audit object.
"""GSM8K-style task scored by the verifiable math_verifier (not match())."""
from __future__ import annotations
from inspect_ai import Task, task
from inspect_ai.dataset import Sample, json_dataset
from inspect_ai.solver import chain, generate, prompt_template, system_message
from evals.verify import math_verifier
COT_SYSTEM = (
"Reason step by step. End with exactly 'ANSWER: <value>' on the final line."
)
def record_to_sample(record: dict) -> Sample:
return Sample(input=record["question"], target=record["answer"])
@task
def gsm8k_verified() -> Task:
return Task(
dataset=json_dataset("evals/data/gsm8k_mini.jsonl", sample_fields=record_to_sample),
solver=chain(system_message(COT_SYSTEM), prompt_template("{prompt}"), generate()),
scorer=math_verifier(),
)
Run the verified task, then demonstrate re-scoring: take a log produced in chapter 3 with the crude match() scorer and re-score it with math_verifier from the saved transcripts, no GPU.
# 1) fresh run with the verifiable scorer
uv run inspect eval evals/math_task.py@gsm8k_verified --model openai/qwen-8b --limit 5
# 2) re-score an EXISTING chapter-3 log with the new scorer, no model calls
uv run inspect score logs/<chapter3-run>.eval --scorer evals/verify.py@math_verifier
# 3) sandboxed code scorer: wire unit_test_scorer() into a Task with
# sandbox="docker" (same shape as math_task.py) and run it. Needs Docker.
# uv run inspect eval evals/code_task.py@code_verified --model openai/qwen-8b --limit 5
Prove the reward core is a pure function, independent of Inspect, since that is the property chapter 7.3 relies on:
uv run python -c "from evals.verify import is_correct; \
print(is_correct('0.5', '1/2'), is_correct('16', '16.0'), is_correct('15', '16'))"
What you should see
The verified run prints accuracy and stderr as before, but now every graded item has a real explanation in the log: "verified equal", or "mismatch: got '18', want '16'", or "extraction failed: no 'ANSWER:' line". Those three explanations distinguish right, wrong, and unparseable, which the chapter-3 match() scorer could not, so the same transcripts now yield a more informative measurement. The re-score step (step 2) is the demonstration that matters: it completes in seconds with zero model calls and produces a new score column over the old transcripts, and if the crude match() and the math_verifier disagree on any item, that disagreement is the format-sensitivity bug from chapter 3 caught and fixed without spending a single GPU-second. The pure-function check prints True True False, confirming is_correct handles symbolic (0.5 = 1/2) and numeric (16 = 16.0) equivalence and correctly rejects 15 vs 16. On the baseline machine, record the verified accuracy and note how many items changed grade between match() and math_verifier on the re-score, with date and driver.
The artifact is evals/verify.py, and its is_correct function is the load-bearing object of the whole book. In chapter 7.3 I import it unchanged and write reward = 1.0 if is_correct(model_answer, gold) else 0.0, and the reasoning model is trained to satisfy the exact verifier I validated here as a measurement. That continuity, one function serving first as instrument and then as reward, is why I spent this chapter insisting the scorer be verifiable, factored, sandboxed where it executes anything, and logged as an audit object. A reward is only as trustworthy as the scorer it was born from, and this is where I earn that trust.
"The scorer you measure with is the reward you'll train against, so write it like money's on it." There's a quiet handoff at the heart of training reasoning models: the function that grades your eval becomes the function that pays your model. That reframes everything about how you write a scorer. A lenient grader is a measurement error you can live with, but a lenient reward is an exploit the model will find and hammer, because optimization is an adversary that searches for your scorer's blind spots. The post makes the case for verifiable scorers, ones with no opinion (a symbolic-math check, a unit-test run) over model-graded ones, and for two disciplines that sound fussy until the handoff makes them essential: separate extraction from verification so you can tell "no answer" from "wrong answer", and never, ever run model-written code outside a sandbox, because a reward hack against an un-sandboxed code scorer isn't a bad number, it's your machine. The closing image is one pure function that lives twice, first as the thing that measures the model, then as the thing that teaches it.
lm-evaluation-harness and comparability
Inspect is for building my own instruments. lm-evaluation-harness (EleutherAI's lm-eval) is for reading off standard instruments in a way that is comparable to how everyone else read them. The two are complementary: when I want a novel construct or a verifiable reward, I build it in Inspect (chapters 3 and 4); when I want a GSM8K number that means the same thing my number means to a committee member who has seen a hundred GSM8K numbers, I run the harness, because the harness fixes the thousand small choices (few-shot count, prompt format, answer extraction, stop sequences) that otherwise make two "GSM8K scores" incomparable. This chapter explains why published numbers differ, how to drive the harness against my local vLLM endpoint, and when a harness delta is trustworthy even when the absolute number is not. The lab produces the first committee-grade artifact of the thesis: a GSM8K quantization-degradation table, the same 8B model at BF16 and INT4, measured under one identical harness config.
[RLHF] Lambert Part 3 is blunt about how much published eval numbers move under harness settings and why cross-paper comparisons are mostly noise; this chapter is the operational response, control the harness so your deltas mean something. [BRM] Raschka ch. 3 motivates why quantization-degradation measurement matters for a one-GPU project: INT4 is what makes the model fit and run fast, so I have to know what it costs in reasoning accuracy, and the harness is how I price it.
Theory
The harness is a big library of frozen operationalizations
The harness's value is that its tasks are frozen: a task like gsm8k is a versioned YAML that pins the dataset, the few-shot regime, the prompt template, the answer-extraction filters, and the metric. When I run gsm8k I get the community's agreed operationalization of the GSM8K construct, not my personal one, and that agreement is exactly what makes my number comparable to a published one (provided the config also matches). The YAML is worth understanding because every field is a construct decision from chapter 1 made explicit.
A GSM8K-style task YAML has roughly this shape (abbreviated):
task: gsm8k
dataset_path: gsm8k
dataset_name: main
output_type: generate_until
doc_to_text: "Question: {{question}}\nAnswer:" # prompt template
doc_to_target: "{{answer}}"
num_fewshot: 5 # the few-shot regime
generation_kwargs:
until: ["Question:", "\n\n"] # stop sequences
do_sample: false # greedy
filter_list: # answer extraction
- name: strict-match
filter:
- function: regex
regex_pattern: "#### (\\-?[0-9\\.\\,]+)"
- name: flexible-extract
filter:
- function: regex
regex_pattern: "(-?[$0-9.,]{2,})|(-?[0-9]+)"
group_select: -1
metric_list:
- metric: exact_match
Two fields deserve emphasis. num_fewshot sets the regime: GSM8K is conventionally 5-shot, and a 0-shot number and an 8-shot number are different measurements of different constructs (recall-with-exemplars versus zero-shot reasoning), not comparable. filter_list defines answer extraction, and GSM8K ships two filters: strict-match demands the model emit the exact #### N format from the few-shot exemplars, while flexible-extract grabs the last number anywhere in the output. These can differ by several points on the same run, because they are measuring "reasoning plus format compliance" versus "reasoning" (chapter 1's answer-extraction brittleness, now a named knob). A committee-grade table reports both.
Why published numbers differ
When two papers report different GSM8K scores for ostensibly the same model, the model is rarely the reason. The reasons are almost always harness-level, and knowing the list is how I avoid being fooled and how I make my own numbers defensible:
- Few-shot count. 0, 5, and 8 shot are different constructs. A paper reporting 8-shot against another's 5-shot is comparing different measurements.
- Prompt format and chat template. Whether the harness wraps the prompt in the model's chat template, and which exemplar formatting it uses, moves the score. A reasoning model prompted without its chat template can badly underperform its true behavior.
- Answer-extraction filter.
strict-matchversusflexible-extract, or a bespoke regex, changes what counts as a correct answer independent of the reasoning. - Greedy versus sampled, and stop sequences. Greedy decoding is reproducible; sampled decoding adds variance and its own mean. Different
untilstop strings truncate reasoning differently. - Dataset version and split. GSM8K has variants and the harness pins a version; a mismatch silently changes items.
- Normalization. Whether
1,000equals1000, trailing-zero handling, currency stripping. - CoT or not. Whether the template elicits chain-of-thought at all. For reasoning models this is enormous.
The practical upshot is a discipline, not a lament: I record the full harness config (task version, num_fewshot, filters, gen_kwargs, chat-template flag, harness commit) next to every number, and the harness does this for me by writing the config into its results JSON. That config block is part of the committee-grade artifact.
It is tempting to run gsm8k once, get 61.2%, and compare it to a blog post's 74%. That comparison is almost certainly invalid: different few-shot count, chat template, filter, or decoding. The harness gives you comparability only if you match the config that produced the number you're comparing to, and you usually cannot fully reconstruct someone else's config. So I treat cross-source absolute comparisons as weak evidence at best. What the harness gives me reliably is internal comparability, two of my own runs under one identical config, which is exactly what a quantization-degradation table needs.
When to trust a harness delta
Here is the load-bearing idea of the chapter. An absolute harness number carries all the config-dependence above, so its trustworthiness as a cross-source claim is low. But a delta between two of my own runs under a single fixed config cancels almost all of that dependence. If I hold the task version, few-shot count, filters, decoding, chat template, prompt, item set, and machine fixed, and change only the thing under study (BF16 to INT4 weights), then the difference in scores isolates the effect of that one change. The shared config is a control: every construct-irrelevant knob is held constant, so its contribution subtracts out of the delta. This is why a quantization-degradation table is scientifically stronger than any single number in it. The absolute 63.1% might not be comparable to anyone else's 63.1%, but "INT4 costs 1.4 points versus BF16 on this machine under this config" is a clean, defensible causal-flavored claim, because the comparison is paired and everything else is nailed down.
The delta is trustworthy when: the two runs share one config, the item set is identical (same seed, same order), decoding is greedy (removing sampling variance), and the difference exceeds the sampling noise floor from chapter 1 (, roughly points at one SE ( at 95%) on the full 1319-item GSM8K test set near ). The delta is not trustworthy when the runs differ in any hidden setting, or when the difference is smaller than the noise floor, in which case the honest report is "no detectable degradation at ", not "zero degradation".
The GSM8K test set has items. Modeling accuracy as a binomial mean (chapter 1, equation 1), the standard error at accuracy is . At ,
so about percentage points at one SE, or points at 95% for a single run. But the quantization comparison is paired (same items, same order), so the relevant quantity is the standard error of the difference, which is smaller than the naive sum because the two runs are positively correlated: items are correct or wrong together far more often than chance. Chapter 7 does this properly with McNemar's test on the discordant pairs; the preview is that pairing can shrink the effective noise floor on the delta to well under a point, which is why a 1-to-2 point INT4 degradation is detectable on the full set even though it would be invisible on a 200-item slice. The table must run the full 1319 items, and the delta's significance is a paired test, not two independent confidence intervals eyeballed for overlap.
The memory arithmetic that makes this comparison matter on one GPU
Quantization is not an academic curiosity on the baseline machine; it is what makes the model fit. The weight footprint follows directly from bytes-per-parameter. An 8B model has parameters, so at BF16 (2 bytes/param) the weights alone need
which saturates the RTX 5080's 16 GB before a single byte of KV cache, so BF16 8B runs only with a short context (or a slightly sub-8B checkpoint) on this card. INT4 (roughly 0.5 bytes/param plus small scale and zero-point overhead) drops the weights to
freeing about 12 GB for KV cache and higher throughput. So the table is not just "does INT4 hurt accuracy"; it is "INT4 is what lets this model breathe on 16 GB, and here is the accuracy I pay for that". The whole thesis runs on quantized models, and this table is the price tag.
Tooling
The harness reaches my vLLM server through the local-completions model type, which speaks the OpenAI completions API that vLLM serves at /v1/completions. (There is also local-chat-completions for the chat endpoint; for GSM8K few-shot with raw prompt formatting, local-completions against the completions endpoint is the standard choice.) Install with uv.
uv init quant-table
cd quant-table
uv add "lm-eval" openai
The invocation names the endpoint, the served model, and the task config explicitly, so the config is captured in the command and in the results JSON:
lm_eval \
--model local-completions \
--model_args base_url=http://localhost:8000/v1/completions,model=qwen-8b,num_concurrent=4,max_retries=3,tokenized_requests=False \
--tasks gsm8k \
--num_fewshot 5 \
--batch_size 1 \
--gen_kwargs temperature=0 \
--output_path results/bf16 \
--log_samples
--log_samples writes every per-item prompt, completion, and score to disk, the harness's version of chapter 4's audit object, so I can inspect exactly what was graded. --output_path gets a results JSON containing both filter scores (strict-match and flexible-extract), their stderrs, and the full config block.
The comparison's validity depends on nothing changing but the weights. That means I serve BF16, run the harness, stop the server, serve the INT4 build of the same base model (same tokenizer, same chat template, same vLLM version and flags except quantization), and run the identical harness command. If I change the vLLM version, the max context, the tokenizer, or the sampling between runs, I have contaminated the delta with a second variable. The clean protocol is: one harness command, saved verbatim, run twice against two server configs that differ only in --quantization. Record the vLLM launch flags for both servers alongside the table, because those flags are part of the experiment.
Lab
The artifact is a committee-grade quantization-degradation table: GSM8K (5-shot, full 1319 items, greedy) on the 8B model at BF16 and at INT4, under one identical harness config, with both filters, stderrs, the paired delta, and the derived memory footprints. Because there is no GPU in this authoring environment, the measured accuracy cells carry the honest placeholder and get filled on the baseline machine; the arithmetic cells (memory) are computed here, and the script that builds the table from the harness JSON is complete and runnable.
Run the harness twice against the two server configs. First serve BF16 (from Part II), run; then serve the INT4/AWQ build of the same base model, run the identical command with a different --output_path.
# --- run A: BF16 server on :8000, served as qwen-8b ---
lm_eval --model local-completions \
--model_args base_url=http://localhost:8000/v1/completions,model=qwen-8b,num_concurrent=4,tokenized_requests=False \
--tasks gsm8k --num_fewshot 5 --batch_size 1 --gen_kwargs temperature=0 \
--output_path results/bf16 --log_samples
# --- stop BF16 server, serve INT4/AWQ build of the SAME base model, then: ---
lm_eval --model local-completions \
--model_args base_url=http://localhost:8000/v1/completions,model=qwen-8b,num_concurrent=4,tokenized_requests=False \
--tasks gsm8k --num_fewshot 5 --batch_size 1 --gen_kwargs temperature=0 \
--output_path results/int4 --log_samples
The table builder reads both results JSONs, extracts the two filter scores and stderrs, computes the paired-relevant delta and the derived memory footprints, and writes a markdown table plus a machine-readable JSON. It degrades gracefully: if a results file is missing (no GPU here), it emits the placeholder row so the table structure is reviewable before the run.
"""Build the GSM8K BF16-vs-INT4 quantization-degradation table.
Reads lm-eval results JSON from results/bf16 and results/int4, extracts the
strict-match and flexible-extract exact_match scores with stderrs, computes the
delta, derives weight-memory footprints from bytes-per-parameter, and writes a
committee-grade markdown table + a JSON sidecar.
Run: uv run python -m quant.build_table
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import glob
import json
from pathlib import Path
PARAMS = 8.03e9 # 8B model parameter count (record exact for your ckpt)
PLACEHOLDER = "(record on baseline machine: value, date, driver)"
def weight_gb(bytes_per_param: float) -> float:
return PARAMS * bytes_per_param / 1e9
def load_scores(output_dir: str) -> dict | None:
"""lm-eval writes results_*.json under output_path; grab the newest."""
files = sorted(glob.glob(f"{output_dir}/**/results_*.json", recursive=True))
if not files:
return None
data = json.loads(Path(files[-1]).read_text())
g = data["results"]["gsm8k"]
return {
"strict": g.get("exact_match,strict-match"),
"strict_se": g.get("exact_match_stderr,strict-match"),
"flex": g.get("exact_match,flexible-extract"),
"flex_se": g.get("exact_match_stderr,flexible-extract"),
}
def fmt(v: float | None, se: float | None) -> str:
if v is None:
return PLACEHOLDER
pct, pse = 100 * v, 100 * (se or 0)
return f"{pct:.1f} ± {pse:.1f}"
def delta(a: float | None, b: float | None) -> str:
if a is None or b is None:
return PLACEHOLDER
return f"{100 * (b - a):+.1f} pp"
def main() -> None:
bf16 = load_scores("results/bf16")
int4 = load_scores("results/int4")
mem_bf16, mem_int4 = weight_gb(2.0), weight_gb(0.5)
rows = [
("Precision", "Weights (GB, derived)", "GSM8K strict",
"GSM8K flexible", "Delta vs BF16 (flexible)"),
("BF16", f"{mem_bf16:.1f}",
fmt(bf16 and bf16["strict"], bf16 and bf16["strict_se"]),
fmt(bf16 and bf16["flex"], bf16 and bf16["flex_se"]), "n/a"),
("INT4 (AWQ)", f"{mem_int4:.1f}",
fmt(int4 and int4["strict"], int4 and int4["strict_se"]),
fmt(int4 and int4["flex"], int4 and int4["flex_se"]),
delta(bf16 and bf16["flex"], int4 and int4["flex"])),
]
widths = [max(len(r[i]) for r in rows) for i in range(len(rows[0]))]
lines = []
for j, r in enumerate(rows):
lines.append("| " + " | ".join(c.ljust(widths[i]) for i, c in enumerate(r)) + " |")
if j == 0:
lines.append("|" + "|".join("-" * (w + 2) for w in widths) + "|")
table_md = "\n".join(lines)
caption = (
"\nGSM8K, 5-shot, greedy, full 1319-item test set, one identical "
"lm-eval config; INT4 is AWQ of the same base checkpoint. "
"Weights derived at 2.0 / 0.5 bytes-per-param over "
f"{PARAMS:.2e} params. Delta significance is a paired McNemar test "
"(chapter 7), not overlapping single-run intervals."
)
Path("results").mkdir(exist_ok=True)
Path("results/quant_table.md").write_text(table_md + "\n" + caption + "\n")
Path("results/quant_table.json").write_text(json.dumps(
{"bf16": bf16, "int4": int4,
"weights_gb": {"bf16": mem_bf16, "int4": mem_int4}}, indent=2))
print(table_md + "\n" + caption)
print("\nwrote results/quant_table.md and results/quant_table.json")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Build the table.
uv run python -m quant.build_table
What you should see
Before the GPU runs (in this authoring environment) the script still succeeds, computing the derived memory column and emitting the placeholder in every measured cell, so the table's structure is reviewable now:
| Precision | Weights (GB, derived) | GSM8K strict | GSM8K flexible | Delta vs BF16 (flexible) |
|------------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|
| BF16 | 16.1 | (record on baseline machine: value, date, driver) | (record on baseline machine: value, date, driver) | n/a |
| INT4 (AWQ) | 4.0 | (record on baseline machine: value, date, driver) | (record on baseline machine: value, date, driver) | (record on baseline machine: value, date, driver) |
The derived weights column is real arithmetic: 16.1 GB at BF16 (which is why the model barely fits on the 5080's 16 GB, leaving almost nothing for KV cache) and 4.0 GB at INT4 (which is what frees the card). After running both lm_eval invocations on the baseline machine, rerun the builder and the measured cells fill with XX.X ± Y.Y for both filters, plus a signed Delta vs BF16 in percentage points. The expected shape, to be confirmed by measurement, is a small INT4 degradation on the order of a point or two on flexible-extract, with strict-match sometimes moving more because format compliance is fragile under quantization; whatever the number, it must be reported with its stderr and adjudicated against the paired noise floor from the derivation, not eyeballed. Record the vLLM launch flags for both servers, the harness commit, the date, and the driver alongside the table.
The artifacts are results/quant_table.md (the committee-grade table with its caption naming every config choice) and results/quant_table.json (the machine-readable scores for later plots), plus the --log_samples per-item logs from both runs. This is the first table in the thesis a committee can actually trust, and the reason it is trustworthy is everything this chapter argued: the absolute numbers may not be comparable to anyone else's, but the delta is a controlled paired comparison under one frozen config, so "INT4 costs this much reasoning accuracy on this machine" is a defensible measurement rather than a vibe. Chapter 7 tightens the significance claim; chapter 9 turns this procedure into the thesis's standing evaluation suite.
"Stop comparing benchmark numbers across papers. Compare deltas you control." Almost every argument about model quality cites absolute benchmark scores as if they were comparable, and they mostly aren't: the same model gets wildly different GSM8K numbers depending on few-shot count, prompt format, answer-extraction regex, and whether decoding was greedy. An evaluation harness doesn't fix that by making absolute numbers universal; it fixes it by letting you freeze every one of those knobs and change exactly one thing. The post's worked example is a quantization-degradation table: the same 8-billion-parameter model at full precision and at 4-bit, run through one identical config, so the difference between them isolates the one variable you care about. The punchline is that the absolute 63% might mean nothing to anyone else, but "4-bit costs 1.4 points of reasoning here, and buys back 12 gigabytes of GPU memory" is a real, defensible, decision-grade fact, and the memory half of it is just multiplication you can do before you ever touch the GPU.
Judge models
A verifier is a function that checks an answer against ground truth. A judge is a model you ask to render an opinion. The whole thrust of this book is to prefer the verifier every time you can get one, because a verifier is cheap, deterministic, and has no ego. But there is always a residue: responses where partial credit matters, where the rubric asks about reasoning quality and not just the final token, where "is this a good explanation" has no closed form. For that residue you reach for a judge, and the moment you do, you have added a second model whose biases now sit between you and the truth. This chapter is about measuring those biases before you trust the judge, and about picking the one judge this book will use as its default, under a rule I write down before I look at any data.
Theory
What a judge is for, and what it is not for
A judge model scores or ranks responses by being prompted to. In the eval literature this is "LLM-as-a-judge," and it comes in two shapes. In absolute (pointwise) scoring you hand the judge one response and a rubric and ask for a grade, say an integer from 1 to 5 or a pass/fail. In pairwise scoring you hand the judge two responses to the same prompt and ask which is better, or whether they tie. Both are useful; both are biased; and the biases differ by shape, which is the first thing to internalize.
The reason to keep a judge on a short leash is that it is not measuring truth, it is producing a correlated proxy for truth, and the correlation is exactly the thing you have to establish empirically rather than assume. In the loop that this book is built around (serve, evaluate, score, train, re-evaluate), a judge lives in the score arrow. If the judge is biased and you train against its scores, you do not get a better model, you get a model that is better at pleasing the judge's bias. That failure mode (reward hacking a miscalibrated judge) is the single most expensive mistake available in this part of the pipeline, and it is why I spend a whole chapter calibrating before I let a judge anywhere near a reward.
The four biases that matter
Judges fail in structured, measurable ways. Four biases are worth naming because you can quantify each one.
Position bias shows up in pairwise judging: the judge prefers whichever response is presented first (or, for some models, second) regardless of content. You detect it by asking the judge the same pair twice with the order swapped and checking how often the two verdicts agree. A perfectly position-neutral judge is swap-consistent 100% of the time (modulo genuine ties); a coin-flip judge that only reads position is swap-consistent 0% of the time on discordant pairs.
Verbosity bias is the tendency to prefer the longer response, or the higher-scoring-because-longer response, independent of quality. You detect it by regressing the judge's verdict on the length difference between the two responses and looking at the slope. If longer reliably wins after you control for gold-labeled quality, you have verbosity bias.
Self-preference (self-enhancement) is the tendency of a judge to rate outputs from its own model family higher than a neutral grader would. This is why using a model to judge its own generations is a methodological smell: the judge and the candidate share failure modes and stylistic priors, so the judge rates its own family's mistakes as features. In this book the judge is always a different model from the one under test, and I will re-state that rule whenever it is at risk.
Sycophancy / formatting bias is a grab-bag: the judge rewards confident tone, clean markdown, an authoritative preamble, or the mere presence of a "Final answer:" line, none of which is correctness. On verifiable tasks this is the most dangerous because it is the easiest for a trained policy to exploit.
Pairwise versus absolute
Pairwise judging is generally more reliable than absolute grading, for the same reason ranking is easier than rating: the judge only has to decide a direction, not calibrate an internal scale it does not really have. Absolute grades drift (the model's notion of "a 4" today is not its notion of "a 4" next week), they clump (everything gets a 3 or a 4), and they are not comparable across judges. Pairwise verdicts sidestep all of that but cost you two things: they are if you compare everything against everything (in practice you compare against a fixed baseline or use a tournament), and they expose you fully to position bias, which absolute grading does not have. The engineering answer is to use pairwise-against-a-fixed-reference with mandatory order-swapping, which buys pairwise's reliability while letting you measure and neutralize position bias. That is the design I calibrate below.
Rubric design
A judge is only as good as the instruction you give it, and most judge failures I have seen are rubric failures wearing a judge costume. Three rules earn their keep. First, decompose the criterion: instead of "rate the answer 1 to 5," ask for a verdict on each of a small number of named, anchored sub-criteria (correctness of the final result, validity of each reasoning step, absence of unsupported claims) and combine them yourself in code. This keeps the aggregation transparent and out of the judge's head. Second, anchor the scale with concrete descriptions of what each level means, because an unanchored scale is where drift lives. Third, decide deliberately about chain-of-thought ordering: asking the judge to reason before it emits a verdict (reason-then-verdict) tends to reduce some biases and improve agreement, at the cost of more tokens; asking for the verdict first is cheaper but more bias-prone. I default to reason-then-verdict with a constrained final line the parser can grab, and I hold the token budget fixed so the cost of that choice is bounded and, crucially, matched across the judges I am comparing.
Calibrating against gold labels
Calibration means: get a set of items a human has labeled (the gold set), have each candidate judge label the same items, and measure how well the judge agrees with the human, chance-corrected. Raw agreement (fraction of items where judge and gold match) is the headline number but it is inflated when one class dominates, so the honest statistic is Cohen's kappa, which subtracts the agreement you would expect from two raters guessing at the observed marginal rates.
Cohen's kappa. Let two raters (here: the judge and the gold human) each assign every item to one of categories. Let be the observed agreement, the fraction of items on which they assigned the same category:
Let and be the marginal rates at which the judge and the gold labeler use category . If the two raters were independent and used those same marginals, the agreement expected by chance is
Cohen's kappa is the observed agreement in excess of chance, normalized by the maximum possible excess:
is perfect agreement, is exactly chance, and is worse than chance. The intuition for the denominator is that is the room left above chance; dividing by it puts judges with different marginal habits on a common scale. A large-sample standard error, useful for putting a confidence interval on kappa itself, is
which we will improve on in the next chapter by bootstrapping over items instead of trusting the asymptotic formula.
For a three-way pairwise verdict (A wins / tie / B wins) kappa is computed over those three categories. For an ordinal absolute grade you would prefer a weighted kappa or Spearman correlation so that "off by one" is penalized less than "off by three," but the three-category pairwise case is where I do the actual decision, so unweighted kappa is the right tool.
The pre-registered decision rule
Here is the part that makes this a thesis chapter and not a blog post. I am going to choose between two local judges, the provisional default Qwen3-14B-AWQ and the challenger gpt-oss-20b (MXFP4), and I am writing the decision rule now, before running anything, so that I cannot rationalize my way to a favorite after seeing the numbers. Pre-registration is the cheapest defense against the garden of forking paths there is, and it costs me nothing but the discipline to write the rule down and follow it.
On a hand-labeled gold set of pairwise comparisons over SDA-flavored verifiable-reasoning responses, at a matched judge token budget of 512 completion tokens and identical reason-then-verdict rubric, select the default judge by:
- Primary: highest Cohen's kappa (Eq. 6.3) with the gold labels. If the 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (Chapter 3.7) for the two kappas overlap, treat it as a tie on the primary criterion and go to the tie-breaker.
- Tie-breaker: lowest bias, scored as the sum of positional inconsistency (fraction of swapped pairs whose verdict flips) and verbosity slope magnitude (absolute standardized coefficient of length-difference on verdict).
The judge selected under this rule becomes the book's default judge and reward grader. The decision is made in this chapter and not revisited without a documented reason.
Tooling
Generate-then-judge on one card: serve, save, swap, judge
You cannot comfortably hold a 14B candidate and a 20B judge in 16GB of VRAM at the same time, and you should not want to, because the fair, reproducible pattern keeps the two phases separate anyway. The discipline is a four-beat sequence I call serve, save, swap, judge.
flowchart LR
A[Serve candidate<br/>vLLM] --> B[Generate all<br/>responses]
B --> C[Save to disk<br/>generations.jsonl]
C --> D[Tear down<br/>free VRAM]
D --> E[Swap in judge<br/>vLLM]
E --> F[Judge from<br/>saved responses]
F --> G[Save verdicts<br/>verdicts.jsonl]
The load-bearing idea is that generation and judging never run concurrently. You serve the candidate, generate every response you will ever need, and write them to generations.jsonl on the NVMe working tier. Then you free the GPU (in practice: shut down the vLLM process; its VRAM is reclaimed when the process exits), start a second vLLM serving the judge, and stream the saved responses through it. This is the same "never re-generate what you can re-score" principle that Chapter 3.10 turns into an operating discipline: once generations.jsonl exists, re-judging with a different judge or a different rubric is cheap and never touches the candidate model again.
Both candidate judges fit alone, which is all we need. Here is the arithmetic.
Qwen3-14B-AWQ. Qwen3-14B has on the order of parameters. AWQ stores weights at 4 bits each, so weight memory is about . Add KV cache and activation working set (a few GB at modest context) and it lives comfortably under the 16 GB ceiling.
gpt-oss-20b (MXFP4). About parameters stored at roughly 4.25 bits each (MXFP4 with block scales) gives of weights. Also fits alone, with less headroom for KV cache, which is one more reason to cap the judge's completion budget.
Neither fits alongside a 14B candidate, which is exactly why the pattern is sequential. Actual loaded footprints: (measured on the baseline machine -- record value, date, driver).
The matched 512-token completion cap does double duty: it bounds the judge's memory footprint and it holds the verbosity and cost of the two judges equal, which is a precondition of the pre-registered rule.
When an API judge is admissible
Everywhere else in this book the answer to "can I use a hosted API" is no, because the loop has to close on my own machine and an API model is unpinnable and undated. Judges get one narrow exception, and it comes with two conditions that must both hold. First, open data only: I will only send an item to a third-party API if that item is already public (a released benchmark), never any private thesis data, because sending data to an API is a disclosure and a governance decision, not a convenience. Second, cross-check only, never the spine: an API judge may serve as an external sanity check on a local judge's calibration, but it may never be the tracked grader whose scores drive training, because it drifts silently, it retires versions, and it cannot be reproduced next year. If both conditions hold, an API judge is a legitimate second opinion. If either fails, it is inadmissible. For the thesis default, the judge is local, full stop.
[RLHF] treats LLM-as-a-judge and reward modeling as two views of the same object, which is the framing this book runs on: a calibrated judge is a reward model you have not yet differentiated through. Read its judging chapter alongside this one for the reward-modeling perspective on the same biases.
Lab
We will run a judge calibration study against a hand-labeled gold set and emit a judge reliability report, then apply the pre-registered rule to pick the default judge. No candidate generation happens here; assume generations.jsonl already exists from a prior serve-and-save (Chapter 3.4's scorers produced the responses). The two candidate judges are served one at a time via vLLM's OpenAI-compatible endpoint.
Project setup
uv init judge-cal && cd judge-cal
uv add "openai>=1.40" "numpy>=1.26" "pydantic>=2.7"
# vLLM is run as a separate server process, not imported here.
# Serve one judge at a time, e.g.:
# uv run vllm serve Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ --max-model-len 8192 --port 8000
# then later:
# uv run vllm serve openai/gpt-oss-20b --port 8000
The gold set
The gold set is the whole ballgame. Each row is one pairwise comparison over a single prompt: two candidate responses (a and b) and a human verdict in {A, tie, B}. Hand-label these yourself; a few dozen well-chosen, genuinely-discordant items beat hundreds of easy ones. I show a tiny illustrative slice; a real study wants on the order of 100+ items so the kappa CI in Chapter 3.7 is tight enough to resolve the two judges.
{"id": "sda-014", "prompt": "Given the table, which region had the largest year-over-year revenue drop? Show your reasoning.", "a": "North fell from 812 to 640, a drop of 172. West fell from 900 to 705, a drop of 195. West had the largest drop.", "b": "The answer is West because it looks lowest on the chart.", "gold": "A", "len_a": 172, "len_b": 63}
{"id": "sda-027", "prompt": "Is the schema below in third normal form? Justify.", "a": "No. The column city depends on zip, which is a non-key attribute, so there is a transitive dependency violating 3NF.", "b": "No, it is not in 3NF. There is a transitive dependency: zip determines city, and zip is not a key, so city transitively depends on the primary key. Decompose to fix it.", "gold": "B", "len_a": 132, "len_b": 205}
{"id": "sda-031", "prompt": "How many records survive the filter WHERE amount > 100 AND status = 'paid'?", "a": "Counting rows matching both conditions: 3.", "b": "There are 3 matching rows.", "gold": "tie", "len_a": 41, "len_b": 26}
The judge call
"""Run one served judge over the gold pairs, both orders, matched budget."""
import json, re
from pathlib import Path
from openai import OpenAI
JUDGE_TOKENS = 512 # matched budget across judges (pre-registered)
RUBRIC = """You are comparing two responses to the same task. Judge only which
response reasons more correctly to a verifiable answer. Length and confidence are
NOT quality. Reason step by step, then end with exactly one line:
VERDICT: A or VERDICT: B or VERDICT: tie
Response A:
{a}
Response B:
{b}
Task:
{prompt}
"""
VERDICT_RE = re.compile(r"VERDICT:\s*(A|B|tie)", re.IGNORECASE)
def parse(text: str) -> str:
m = VERDICT_RE.search(text or "")
if not m:
return "unparsed"
v = m.group(1).lower()
return {"a": "A", "b": "B", "tie": "tie"}[v]
def judge_pair(client, model, prompt, first, second):
msg = RUBRIC.format(prompt=prompt, a=first, b=second)
resp = client.chat.completions.create(
model=model,
messages=[{"role": "user", "content": msg}],
temperature=0.0, # judging is deterministic-as-possible
max_tokens=JUDGE_TOKENS,
)
return parse(resp.choices[0].message.content)
def run(model_name: str, base_url="http://localhost:8000/v1"):
client = OpenAI(base_url=base_url, api_key="EMPTY")
out = []
for line in Path("data/gold.jsonl").read_text().splitlines():
r = json.loads(line)
# Original order: A=a, B=b. Swapped order: A=b, B=a.
v_orig = judge_pair(client, model_name, r["prompt"], r["a"], r["b"])
v_swap = judge_pair(client, model_name, r["prompt"], r["b"], r["a"])
# Map the swapped verdict back to the a/b frame.
v_swap_mapped = {"A": "B", "B": "A", "tie": "tie",
"unparsed": "unparsed"}[v_swap]
out.append({**r, "v_orig": v_orig, "v_swap": v_swap_mapped})
dest = Path(f"runs/verdicts_{model_name.replace('/', '_')}.jsonl")
dest.parent.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
dest.write_text("\n".join(json.dumps(o) for o in out))
print(f"wrote {dest} ({len(out)} pairs, both orders)")
if __name__ == "__main__":
import sys
run(sys.argv[1]) # e.g. Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ or openai/gpt-oss-20b
Note the temperature=0.0: a judge should be as deterministic as the serving stack allows, so that its verdicts are a property of the rubric and not of the seed. Run it once per judge, each time against a freshly served endpoint:
# Serve judge 1, judge, tear down; then judge 2. Serve/save/swap/judge.
uv run vllm serve Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ --port 8000 & # then wait for ready
uv run python -m judgecal.judge Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ
# stop the server (frees VRAM), then:
uv run vllm serve openai/gpt-oss-20b --port 8000 &
uv run python -m judgecal.judge openai/gpt-oss-20b
The reliability report
"""Score each judge's verdicts against gold: kappa, position bias, verbosity."""
import json, sys
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
CATS = ["A", "tie", "B"]
def load(model_name):
p = Path(f"runs/verdicts_{model_name.replace('/', '_')}.jsonl")
return [json.loads(l) for l in p.read_text().splitlines()]
def cohens_kappa(judge, gold):
"""Eqs. 6.1-6.3 over the three pairwise categories."""
N = len(judge)
po = np.mean([j == g for j, g in zip(judge, gold)])
pe = 0.0
for k in CATS:
pj = np.mean([j == k for j in judge])
pg = np.mean([g == k for g in gold])
pe += pj * pg
return (po - pe) / (1 - pe) if pe < 1 else 1.0, po, pe
def positional_inconsistency(rows):
"""Fraction of pairs whose verdict flips when the order is swapped.
A position-neutral judge gives v_orig == v_swap (already mapped to a/b)."""
flips = [r["v_orig"] != r["v_swap"] for r in rows]
return float(np.mean(flips))
def verbosity_slope(rows):
"""Standardized slope of (verdict favors longer) on length difference.
Encode verdict as +1 if it favors A, -1 if B, 0 if tie. To isolate length
from POSITION, average the signed verdict over both presentation orders
(v_orig and the swapped v_swap, both already mapped to a/b content): the
position-dependent component cancels and only the content/length preference
survives. Regressing v_orig alone would leak position bias into the slope.
A positive slope means 'longer tends to win' independent of where it sat."""
def signed(v):
return {"A": 1.0, "B": -1.0, "tie": 0.0}.get(v, 0.0)
y = np.array([0.5 * (signed(r["v_orig"]) + signed(r["v_swap"]))
for r in rows])
dl = np.array([r["len_a"] - r["len_b"] for r in rows], dtype=float)
if dl.std() == 0:
return 0.0
dz = (dl - dl.mean()) / dl.std()
# slope of y on dz via least squares; y is not standardized on purpose.
return float((dz @ (y - y.mean())) / (dz @ dz))
def report(model_name):
rows = load(model_name)
judge = [r["v_orig"] for r in rows]
gold = [r["gold"] for r in rows]
kappa, po, pe = cohens_kappa(judge, gold)
pos = positional_inconsistency(rows)
verb = verbosity_slope(rows)
unparsed = float(np.mean([r["v_orig"] == "unparsed" for r in rows]))
return {
"judge": model_name,
"n_items": len(rows),
"raw_agreement": round(po, 4),
"cohens_kappa": round(kappa, 4),
"positional_inconsistency": round(pos, 4),
"verbosity_slope_abs": round(abs(verb), 4),
"bias_score": round(pos + abs(verb), 4),
"unparsed_rate": round(unparsed, 4),
"token_budget": 512,
"note": "kappa CI via evalstats bootstrap (Ch 3.7); "
"measured on the baseline machine -- record date, driver",
}
def decide(reports):
"""Apply the pre-registered rule: primary kappa, tie-break bias_score."""
a, b = reports
# Tie iff kappa CIs overlap; here we approximate with a small margin and
# defer the real overlap test to evalstats.bootstrap in Ch 3.7.
if abs(a["cohens_kappa"] - b["cohens_kappa"]) > 0.05:
winner = a if a["cohens_kappa"] > b["cohens_kappa"] else b
reason = "higher kappa (primary)"
else:
winner = a if a["bias_score"] < b["bias_score"] else b
reason = "kappa tie -> lower bias_score (tie-breaker)"
return {"default_judge": winner["judge"], "reason": reason}
if __name__ == "__main__":
models = ["Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ", "openai/gpt-oss-20b"]
reports = [report(m) for m in models]
out = {"reports": reports, "decision": decide(reports)}
Path("runs/judge_reliability_report.json").write_text(
json.dumps(out, indent=2))
print(json.dumps(out, indent=2))
The decide function above uses a crude 0.05 margin as a stand-in for "do the kappa confidence intervals overlap." That is a placeholder. The pre-registered rule says the tie is decided by bootstrap CIs, and the honest version calls evalstats.bootstrap from the next chapter to put a real 95% interval on each kappa and checks overlap. Do not ship the margin hack as the final decision; wire in the bootstrap once Chapter 3.7's module exists. This is deliberately left as the seam between the two chapters.
The artifact and what you should see
The artifact is runs/judge_reliability_report.json: for each candidate judge, its raw agreement, Cohen's kappa against gold, positional inconsistency, verbosity slope, unparsed rate, and the matched token budget, plus a decision block naming the default judge and the criterion that selected it. Running the report on a real gold set, you should see kappa values that are clearly above chance (a usable judge lands well north of ; below that it is barely better than guessing and you should fix the rubric before trusting it), positional inconsistency small (a good judge flips on well under 15% of swapped pairs), and a verbosity slope near zero. The two candidates will separate on one of these axes: if one has a decisively higher kappa (non-overlapping CIs), it wins on the primary criterion; if the kappas are statistically indistinguishable, the tie-breaker picks the less biased judge. Either way the JSON records which rule fired, so the choice of default judge is auditable rather than a matter of taste. The actual kappa and bias numbers for Qwen3-14B-AWQ versus gpt-oss-20b are (measured on the baseline machine -- record value, date, driver), and the resulting default judge is whichever the recorded numbers select under the locked rule above.
LLM-as-a-judge is usually sold as "just ask a big model which answer is better." The uncomfortable truth is that a judge is a second model with its own biases (it prefers the first option, the longer option, and its own family's writing), and if you train against an uncalibrated judge you get a model that games the judge, not a better model. The fix is boring and powerful: hand-label a small gold set, measure the judge's chance-corrected agreement (Cohen's kappa) and its position and verbosity biases, and pre-register the rule that picks your judge before you look at the scores. Pick the judge like you would pick a lab instrument: calibrate it against a known standard first, then trust the readings.
The statistics of evals
An eval score is an estimate, not a measurement. When the harness prints accuracy: 0.72 it is handing you the mean of a sample, and a sample mean is a random variable with a distribution of its own. The entire discipline of this chapter is refusing to read that number as if it were exact. Every claim this book makes downstream (that a quantized model is as good as the full-precision one, that a training run moved the needle, that judge A beats judge B) is a claim about a difference between two such estimates, and a difference between two noisy estimates can be pure noise dressed up as a result. So this chapter builds the machinery that tells noise from signal: confidence intervals from the bootstrap, paired tests for the shared-item comparisons that dominate this book, corrections for running many tests at once, and a power analysis that tells me how many items I need before I bother running the comparison at all. The output is evalstats, a small module that every later comparison in the book imports. This is the chapter the thesis committee reads with a red pen, so I derive everything from definitions.
Theory
Where eval variance comes from
Before estimating uncertainty you have to know what is random. Five sources contribute, and they are not interchangeable.
The first and usually largest is item sampling variance: your test set is a finite sample of items from some larger population of tasks, and a different draw of items would give a different score. If accuracy is and you have independent items, the standard error of the estimated accuracy is on the order of , which for and is about , i.e. plus or minus three percentage points before you have done anything at all. That number alone kills a lot of over-confident benchmark comparisons.
The second is decoding stochasticity: with temperature above zero, the same model on the same item can be right one sample and wrong the next. The third is judge or scorer noise, which for a model-graded metric is the judge's own variance from Chapter 3.6. The fourth is prompt and format variance: few-shot example choice, ordering, and template wording move scores by amounts that rival real model differences. The fifth is implementation variance: tokenizer quirks, stop-sequence handling, and answer-extraction regexes, which is why Chapter 3.5 insisted on comparability.
The estimand (the thing you are trying to learn) is the population accuracy where is the per-item score. The estimator is the sample mean . Everything below is about putting honest error bars on and on differences of two such 's.
Seeds, resampling, and the two views of an item
There are two legitimate ways to treat an eval item, and confusing them is a common error. In the fixed-item view, the test set is the population you care about and the only randomness is decoding; here you reduce variance by fixing seeds and, if you want to characterize decoding noise, by drawing multiple completions per item and averaging. In the random-item view, the test set is a sample and you want to generalize to unseen items; here the item draw is the dominant randomness and the bootstrap resamples items. This book almost always takes the random-item view, because the point of an eval is to predict how the model does on tasks like these, not only on these exact tasks. When an item has multiple completions, the two sources stack, and the correct resampling unit is the item (a cluster of completions), not the individual completion, or you will understate the variance by pretending correlated completions are independent.
The bootstrap
The bootstrap is how I get a confidence interval without assuming the score distribution is anything in particular. It is the workhorse of the whole module, so I derive it in full.
The nonparametric bootstrap. Let the per-item scores be i.i.d. draws from an unknown distribution . We want a confidence interval for a statistic ; take , the population accuracy. The estimator is the plug-in , where is the empirical distribution putting mass on each observed ; for the mean this is just .
The plug-in principle says: since , quantities computed from approximate the same quantities computed from . In particular the sampling distribution of (which we cannot compute, because we do not know ) is approximated by the distribution of , where is the statistic recomputed on a resample drawn from . Drawing from is exactly sampling items with replacement from the observed data.
The procedure. For : The collection is the bootstrap distribution. Two things fall out of it. The bootstrap standard error is its standard deviation, The percentile interval at level takes the empirical quantiles of the bootstrap distribution, where is the -th quantile of . For a two-sided 95% interval, and you read off the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles.
Sanity check against the closed form. For the mean of binary scores, and the classical standard error is . The bootstrap SE in Eq. 7.3 converges to exactly this as , because resampling a Bernoulli sample reproduces its variance and dividing the resample mean's variance by recovers the same formula. So the bootstrap does not contradict the textbook interval; it generalizes it to statistics (kappa, F1, a paired difference) that have no clean closed form.
Two refinements matter in practice. First, the clustered (block) bootstrap: when each item carries several completions, you resample items and take all completions of each resampled item together, which preserves within-item correlation and keeps the SE honest. Second, BCa (bias-corrected and accelerated) intervals adjust the percentile endpoints for skew and median-bias; they are strictly better than the plain percentile interval for skewed statistics, and the module exposes them, but for near-symmetric statistics like accuracy the percentile interval is fine and I default to it for transparency.
Paired differences: A versus B on shared items
Almost every comparison in this book runs both models on the same items: full-precision versus quantized, before-training versus after, judge A versus judge B. Sharing items is a gift, because it lets you cancel item difficulty. The right analysis is paired, and paired analysis can be dramatically more powerful than treating the two runs as independent samples.
The paired -test and its assumptions. For each shared item , let and be the two models' scores and form the difference . If the models are compared on the same items, the are i.i.d. draws with mean , which is exactly the quantity we care about. The null hypothesis is .
Let and . The paired statistic is which under follows a Student distribution with degrees of freedom. The power of pairing is visible in the denominator: . Because item difficulty makes and positively correlated, , so the paired variance is smaller than the unpaired . Pairing subtracts the shared difficulty out.
Assumptions, in the order they bite. (1) The are independent across items; violated if items share a passage or a template, which argues for a clustered bootstrap instead. (2) The are approximately normal, or is large enough for the CLT to carry ; for continuous or averaged scores this is mild, but for binary per-item scores the differences live in and normality is a stretch at small . (3) No systematic pairing error. When assumption (2) is shaky, use the exact paired test for binary outcomes below, or the paired bootstrap, which assumes neither normality nor a variance formula.
For binary accuracy on shared items, the exact and correct paired test is McNemar's test, which throws away the items both models get right or both get wrong (they carry no information about the difference) and looks only at the disagreements.
McNemar's test. Cross-tabulate the shared items by (A correct?) (B correct?):
| B correct | B wrong | |
|---|---|---|
| A correct | ||
| A wrong |
The concordant cells (both right) and (both wrong) tell you nothing about which model is better. All the signal is in the discordant cells: items where A is right and B is wrong, items where B is right and A is wrong. Under (the two models are equally likely to win a discordant item), each discordant item is a fair coin, so An exact two-sided p-value sums the binomial tail; the large-sample approximation is the chi-square statistic with one degree of freedom, The estimated accuracy difference is , and its whole uncertainty comes from the discordant pairs, which is why the discordant rate is the quantity that drives the power analysis below.
The paired bootstrap is the assumption-light default I actually reach for: resample items with replacement, recompute on each resample, and read the CI for the difference straight off Eq. 7.4. It handles binary or continuous scores, clustered completions, and weird statistics uniformly, which is why it anchors the module.
Multiple comparisons
The moment you run more than one test, the probability of at least one false positive climbs. Compare a model against five baselines at each and, if all five nulls are true, the chance of at least one spurious "significant" result is . You have to correct, and there are two corrections worth knowing, controlling two different error rates.
Bonferroni (controls the family-wise error rate). Suppose you run tests and want the FWER, the probability of any false rejection among the true nulls, to be at most . Test each hypothesis at level . Let be the event that true null is falsely rejected; then . By Boole's inequality (the union bound), where is the number of true nulls. No independence assumption is needed, which is Bonferroni's strength and, because it is conservative when tests are correlated, also its weakness.
Benjamini-Hochberg (controls the false discovery rate). When you have many tests and can tolerate a controlled fraction of false positives among your rejections rather than demanding almost none, control the FDR, , the expected proportion of false rejections among all rejections . Order the p-values . Find and reject the hypotheses corresponding to . Benjamini and Hochberg proved that under independence (and under positive regression dependence, PRDS) this guarantees . The intuition for the sloped threshold : the -th smallest of uniform p-values has expectation under the null, so comparing against asks "is this p-value smaller than a null p-value at its rank would be, by a factor ?" BH is uniformly more powerful than Bonferroni and is the right default when you are screening many model or item comparisons rather than defending a single headline claim.
Which to use is a modeling decision, not a formula. For the one comparison that anchors a thesis chapter (does training help), you are not in multiple-comparison territory at all. For a sweep over many configs or per-stratum breakdowns, use BH. For a small pre-registered family where any single false positive would be embarrassing, use Bonferroni.
Power: is my delta real, and how many items do I need
Power analysis inverts the question. Instead of "given my data, is the difference significant," it asks "given the difference I expect and the noise I have, how many items do I need for a real difference to clear significance with high probability." This is what sizes the thesis suite in Chapter 3.9, so I do it concretely.
Sample size for a paired comparison. Model the per-item difference as having true mean (the effect you hope to detect) and standard deviation . The two-sided test at level rejects when exceeds ; under the alternative, is centered at with SE , so power requires the alternative's center to sit standard errors past the critical value:
Specializing to paired accuracy (McNemar). For binary shared-item scores, all the signal is in the discordant pairs. With discordant rate and effect , a standard approximation for the required number of item pairs is
A worked number the suite will use. Take two-sided (), power (), and suppose a training run flips a quarter of the items in one direction or the other, . Then . For a target detectable gain of (eight accuracy points), , so
So roughly 300 shared items detect an eight-point paired accuracy gain at 80% power (the formula lands at 304.23, and np.ceil rounds the required- up to 305). Rerunning the arithmetic: a five-point gain () needs items, and a ten-point gain () needs only . These three numbers (194 / 305 / 783 for 10 / 8 / 5 points) are exactly what Chapter 3.9 uses to choose the suite size, trading detectable effect against hand-verification cost.
Tooling
The module could lean entirely on scipy.stats, and it uses scipy for the t and chi-square distributions. But I wrap it in my own evalstats for three reasons that matter to reproducibility. First, the resampling unit in this book is the item cluster, and a generic bootstrap does not know that; evalstats bootstraps clusters by default. Second, the comparisons are paired, and the module makes paired the default so no one accidentally runs an unpaired test on shared items. Third, every result comes back as a typed dataclass with the estimator, the CI, the method, and the seed recorded, so it drops straight into an MLflow run and the number is never bare. A p-value with no method and no seed attached is a rumor; evalstats makes the method and seed travel with the number.
Lab
We build evalstats, the module every later comparison in the book imports. It has four estimators (bootstrap, paired, correction, power), a result type, and tests that check the bootstrap's coverage by simulation and check McNemar against a hand binomial.
Project setup
uv init evalstats && cd evalstats
uv add "numpy>=1.26" "scipy>=1.13"
uv add --dev "pytest>=8.2"
The result type
from dataclasses import dataclass, asdict, field
from typing import Optional
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class Estimate:
"""A point estimate with an interval and full provenance. Never bare."""
name: str
point: float
ci_low: float
ci_high: float
level: float # e.g. 0.95
method: str # e.g. "cluster_bootstrap_percentile"
n: int
n_boot: Optional[int] = None
seed: Optional[int] = None
extra: dict = field(default_factory=dict)
def as_mlflow(self) -> dict:
"""Flatten to metric/param dicts for logging (see Ch 3.10)."""
return {f"{self.name}.point": self.point,
f"{self.name}.ci_low": self.ci_low,
f"{self.name}.ci_high": self.ci_high}
def to_dict(self) -> dict:
return asdict(self)
The bootstrap
"""Clustered nonparametric bootstrap (Eqs. 7.1-7.4) and paired-difference CI."""
import numpy as np
from typing import Callable, Optional, Sequence
from .result import Estimate
def bootstrap_mean(scores: Sequence[float],
groups: Optional[Sequence] = None,
level: float = 0.95,
n_boot: int = 10000,
seed: int = 0,
name: str = "accuracy") -> Estimate:
"""Percentile bootstrap CI for a mean, optionally clustered by `groups`
(e.g. item id when there are multiple completions per item)."""
x = np.asarray(scores, dtype=float)
rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
if groups is None:
n = len(x)
boot = np.empty(n_boot)
for b in range(n_boot):
idx = rng.integers(0, n, size=n) # Eq. 7.1
boot[b] = x[idx].mean() # Eq. 7.2
method = "bootstrap_percentile"
else:
g = np.asarray(groups)
uniq = np.unique(g)
buckets = {u: np.where(g == u)[0] for u in uniq}
k = len(uniq)
boot = np.empty(n_boot)
for b in range(n_boot):
chosen = uniq[rng.integers(0, k, size=k)] # resample clusters
idx = np.concatenate([buckets[u] for u in chosen])
boot[b] = x[idx].mean()
method = "cluster_bootstrap_percentile"
lo = float(np.quantile(boot, (1 - level) / 2)) # Eq. 7.4
hi = float(np.quantile(boot, 1 - (1 - level) / 2))
return Estimate(name=name, point=float(x.mean()), ci_low=lo, ci_high=hi,
level=level, method=method, n=len(x),
n_boot=n_boot, seed=seed,
extra={"boot_se": float(boot.std(ddof=1))}) # Eq. 7.3
def bootstrap_paired_diff(a: Sequence[float], b: Sequence[float],
groups: Optional[Sequence] = None,
level: float = 0.95, n_boot: int = 10000,
seed: int = 0, name: str = "delta") -> Estimate:
"""Paired-difference CI on shared items: resample items, recompute mean(a-b).
Assumption-light alternative to the paired t-test (Eq. 7.5)."""
a = np.asarray(a, dtype=float); b = np.asarray(b, dtype=float)
assert len(a) == len(b), "paired inputs must share items and order"
d = a - b
est = bootstrap_mean(d, groups=groups, level=level, n_boot=n_boot,
seed=seed, name=name)
return est
def bootstrap_statistic(data, stat_fn: Callable, level: float = 0.95,
n_boot: int = 10000, seed: int = 0,
name: str = "stat") -> Estimate:
"""Bootstrap CI for an arbitrary statistic (e.g. Cohen's kappa from Ch 3.6).
`data` is a sequence of records; `stat_fn` maps a resampled list -> float."""
records = list(data)
n = len(records)
rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
point = stat_fn(records)
boot = np.empty(n_boot)
for bi in range(n_boot):
idx = rng.integers(0, n, size=n)
boot[bi] = stat_fn([records[j] for j in idx])
lo = float(np.quantile(boot, (1 - level) / 2))
hi = float(np.quantile(boot, 1 - (1 - level) / 2))
return Estimate(name=name, point=float(point), ci_low=lo, ci_high=hi,
level=level, method="bootstrap_percentile", n=n,
n_boot=n_boot, seed=seed)
Paired tests
"""Paired t-test (Eq. 7.5) and McNemar's exact/chi-square test (Eqs. 7.6-7.7)."""
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
from dataclasses import dataclass
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class TestResult:
name: str
statistic: float
pvalue: float
effect: float # estimated difference (a - b)
method: str
n: int
extra: dict
def paired_t(a, b, name="paired_t") -> TestResult:
a = np.asarray(a, float); b = np.asarray(b, float)
d = a - b
t, p = stats.ttest_rel(a, b) # Eq. 7.5
return TestResult(name, float(t), float(p), float(d.mean()),
"paired_t", len(d), {"sd_diff": float(d.std(ddof=1))})
def mcnemar(a_correct, b_correct, exact=True, name="mcnemar") -> TestResult:
"""Paired binary test. Inputs are 0/1 correctness on shared items."""
a = np.asarray(a_correct, int); b = np.asarray(b_correct, int)
b_only = int(np.sum((a == 1) & (b == 0))) # A right, B wrong
c_only = int(np.sum((a == 0) & (b == 1))) # B right, A wrong
disc = b_only + c_only
n = len(a)
if exact:
# Two-sided exact binomial on discordant pairs (Eq. 7.6).
p = float(stats.binomtest(min(b_only, c_only), disc, 0.5).pvalue) \
if disc > 0 else 1.0
stat = float(min(b_only, c_only)); method = "mcnemar_exact"
else:
stat = (abs(b_only - c_only) - 1) ** 2 / disc if disc else 0.0 # Eq.7.7
p = float(stats.chi2.sf(stat, df=1)); method = "mcnemar_chi2_cc"
return TestResult(name, stat, p, (b_only - c_only) / n, method, n,
{"b": b_only, "c": c_only, "discordant_rate": disc / n})
Corrections and power
"""Bonferroni (Eq. 7.8) and Benjamini-Hochberg (Eq. 7.9)."""
import numpy as np
def bonferroni(pvalues, alpha=0.05):
p = np.asarray(pvalues, float)
m = len(p)
reject = p <= alpha / m
return {"reject": reject.tolist(), "adjusted": np.minimum(p * m, 1.0).tolist(),
"alpha": alpha, "m": m, "method": "bonferroni"}
def benjamini_hochberg(pvalues, q=0.05):
p = np.asarray(pvalues, float)
m = len(p)
order = np.argsort(p)
ranked = p[order]
thresh = (np.arange(1, m + 1) / m) * q # Eq. 7.9 RHS
below = ranked <= thresh
kstar = np.max(np.where(below)[0]) + 1 if below.any() else 0
reject = np.zeros(m, bool)
if kstar > 0:
reject[order[:kstar]] = True
# step-up adjusted p-values
adj = np.empty(m)
prev = 1.0
for i in range(m - 1, -1, -1):
prev = min(prev, ranked[i] * m / (i + 1))
adj[i] = prev
adjusted = np.empty(m); adjusted[order] = adj
return {"reject": reject.tolist(), "adjusted": adjusted.tolist(),
"k_star": int(kstar), "q": q, "method": "benjamini_hochberg"}
"""Power / required sample size for paired comparisons (Eqs. 7.10-7.11)."""
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
def required_n_paired_mean(delta, sd_diff, alpha=0.05, power=0.80):
"""Eq. 7.10: items needed to detect a mean difference `delta`."""
z_a = stats.norm.ppf(1 - alpha / 2)
z_b = stats.norm.ppf(power)
return int(np.ceil(((z_a + z_b) * sd_diff / delta) ** 2))
def required_n_mcnemar(delta, psi, alpha=0.05, power=0.80):
"""Eq. 7.11: item pairs needed for a paired accuracy gain `delta`
given discordant rate `psi` = p10 + p01."""
z_a = stats.norm.ppf(1 - alpha / 2)
z_b = stats.norm.ppf(power)
num = (z_a * np.sqrt(psi) + z_b * np.sqrt(max(psi - delta ** 2, 0))) ** 2
return int(np.ceil(num / delta ** 2))
from .result import Estimate
from .bootstrap import (bootstrap_mean, bootstrap_paired_diff,
bootstrap_statistic)
from .paired import paired_t, mcnemar, TestResult
from .correction import bonferroni, benjamini_hochberg
from .power import required_n_paired_mean, required_n_mcnemar
__all__ = ["Estimate", "bootstrap_mean", "bootstrap_paired_diff",
"bootstrap_statistic", "paired_t", "mcnemar", "TestResult",
"bonferroni", "benjamini_hochberg",
"required_n_paired_mean", "required_n_mcnemar"]
Tests that keep the module honest
import numpy as np
import evalstats as es
def test_bootstrap_coverage():
"""A 95% CI should cover the true mean ~95% of the time (Eq. 7.4)."""
rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
p_true = 0.7
covered = 0
trials = 300
for t in range(trials):
x = rng.binomial(1, p_true, size=200)
e = es.bootstrap_mean(x, n_boot=2000, seed=t)
if e.ci_low <= p_true <= e.ci_high:
covered += 1
assert 0.90 <= covered / trials <= 0.99 # loose band for a fast test
def test_mcnemar_matches_scipy():
from scipy import stats
rng = np.random.default_rng(1)
a = rng.binomial(1, 0.75, 400)
b = rng.binomial(1, 0.68, 400)
r = es.mcnemar(a, b, exact=True)
# discordant-only exact test agrees with a hand binomial
disc = r.extra["b"] + r.extra["c"]
p = stats.binomtest(min(r.extra["b"], r.extra["c"]), disc, 0.5).pvalue
assert abs(r.pvalue - p) < 1e-9
def test_bh_monotone_and_bonferroni_bound():
p = [0.001, 0.01, 0.03, 0.2, 0.5]
bh = es.benjamini_hochberg(p, q=0.05)
bf = es.bonferroni(p, alpha=0.05)
assert sum(bh["reject"]) >= sum(bf["reject"]) # BH at least as powerful
def test_power_numbers_match_chapter():
# The three numbers Chapter 3.9 consumes (psi = 0.25).
assert es.required_n_mcnemar(0.10, 0.25) == 194
assert es.required_n_mcnemar(0.08, 0.25) == 305
assert es.required_n_mcnemar(0.05, 0.25) == 783
The single most common way to lie to yourself with these tools is to run an unpaired test on paired data. If model A and model B were evaluated on the same items, comparing their two accuracy CIs and checking whether they overlap is the wrong test and it is badly underpowered, because it ignores the item-difficulty correlation that pairing cancels (the covariance term in the Eq. 7.5 derivation). Two overlapping marginal CIs can still correspond to a strongly significant paired difference. Always feed shared-item comparisons to bootstrap_paired_diff or mcnemar, never to two separate bootstrap_mean calls compared by eye.
The artifact and what you should see
The artifact is the installed evalstats module plus a green pytest. Run uv run pytest -q. You should see four tests pass: the bootstrap's 95% interval covers the true accuracy on the order of 95% of the time (the coverage test), McNemar's exact p-value matches a hand binomial to numerical precision, Benjamini-Hochberg rejects at least as many hypotheses as Bonferroni on the same p-values (BH is uniformly more powerful), and the power module reproduces the exact item counts (194, 305, 783 items for a ten-, eight-, and five-point paired gain at 80% power with a discordant rate of 0.25) that the derivation computed by hand and that Chapter 3.9 will consume to size the thesis suite. From here on, no comparison in this book reports a bare number: an accuracy comes with a bootstrap_mean interval, a model-versus-model claim comes with a bootstrap_paired_diff or mcnemar p-value, a sweep comes with a benjamini_hochberg correction, and every one of them carries its method and seed into MLflow. That is the whole point of building the module once, here, and importing it everywhere after.
[CAI] is the reference this part leans on for causal thinking, and it pairs naturally with this chapter: a confidence interval tells you whether a difference is real, but Part IV's causal machinery tells you whether that real difference is attributable to the intervention you made rather than to a confounder in the eval design. Read this chapter for the "is it noise" question and [CAI] for the "is it causal" question; the thesis needs both answered.
Every benchmark headline you have ever read ("model X beats model Y by 1.3 points") is a claim about the difference of two noisy estimates, and most of them never show the error bars. Here is the uncomfortable arithmetic: at 70% accuracy on 200 items, the confidence interval on a single score is already about plus or minus three points, so a 1.3-point gap is inside the noise before you even ask whether the two runs were paired. The fix is a hundred lines of code you write once: a clustered bootstrap for confidence intervals, McNemar's test for same-items comparisons, Benjamini-Hochberg when you run many tests, and a power calculation that tells you how many items you needed in the first place. Build that module, import it everywhere, and never report a bare eval number again.
Contamination and dataset hygiene
Here is the failure that makes every other number in this book meaningless. You run an eval, the model scores 82%, you write it down as evidence of reasoning ability, and it turns out the test items were sitting in the model's pretraining corpus verbatim. The model did not reason; it remembered. In the open-weights era this is not a rare accident, it is the default condition you have to actively rule out, because the pretraining corpora are enormous, undisclosed, and scraped from exactly the public web where benchmarks live. Contamination inflates scores, and worse, it inflates them unevenly across models depending on what each one memorized, which corrupts the very A-versus-B comparisons that Chapter 3.7 taught us to measure carefully. A confidence interval around a contaminated score is a precise measurement of the wrong thing. So before a dataset is allowed anywhere near the thesis suite, it gets scanned, and this chapter builds the scanner.
Theory
What leakage is, and the three places it hides
Leakage is any path by which information about the test answers reaches the model before test time. It hides in three places, and you have to defend all three.
The first is pretraining contamination: test items are in the corpus the model was trained on. You cannot inspect that corpus (it is closed or effectively unsearchable), so you cannot prove absence directly; you detect it by proxy and by behavior. The second is your own pipeline leakage: in a serve-evaluate-score-train loop you generate data and train on it, and if a test item (or a near-duplicate of one) sneaks into the training pool, you have contaminated your own eval with your own hands. This one you can control completely, and controlling it is the main hygiene job in this book. The third is benchmark-internal duplication: the eval set contains near-duplicate items, so a model that memorizes one gets several "independent" items for free, which breaks the independence assumption behind every CI and test in Chapter 3.7.
Contamination also comes in grades of subtlety. Verbatim contamination is the exact item text. Near-duplicate contamination is a paraphrase, a reformatting, a translated or lightly-edited version, which slips past exact matching but still hands the model the answer. Answer/solution leakage is the sneakiest: the question is novel but its worked solution appeared somewhere, so the model has seen the reasoning even if it has not seen the prompt. A good scan catches the first two mechanically; the third needs behavioral probing.
Detecting verbatim and near-duplicate overlap: n-grams
The workhorse for verbatim and light-paraphrase overlap is n-gram matching, and it is worth deriving the object rather than treating it as a black box.
Shingling and Jaccard overlap. Represent a document as its set of contiguous word -grams (its "shingles"). For (the length GPT-3's contamination analysis used) the document
becomes the set of overlapping 13-token windows . The overlap between a test item and a training document is the Jaccard similarity of their shingle sets,
means identical shingle sets (verbatim duplication up to shingle granularity); means no shared -gram. The choice of trades false positives against false negatives: small (say 5) flags common phrases and over-reports; large (13+) fires only on substantial verbatim overlap and under-reports paraphrase. A common contamination rule is to flag any test item that shares even a single long -gram with the corpus, i.e. for , which is a stricter and cheaper signal than a Jaccard threshold and is the one worth using for a leakage flag.
Comparing every test item against every training document by set intersection is and does not scale. MinHash with locality-sensitive hashing (LSH) turns the Jaccard comparison into a hash lookup: MinHash gives each document a short signature whose collision probability equals its Jaccard similarity, and LSH buckets similar signatures together so you only compare documents that land in the same bucket. That is how you scan a small eval set against a large training pool on a CPU in minutes instead of days.
Detecting paraphrase: embeddings
N-grams are blind to a paraphrase that shares no long span ("which region had the biggest revenue drop" versus "identify the area with the largest decline in earnings"). Embedding-based near-duplicate detection catches these: encode each item with a sentence embedding model, and flag pairs whose cosine similarity exceeds a threshold. Cosine similarity of embeddings is , and a threshold around 0.85 to 0.9 catches genuine paraphrase while tolerating incidental topical similarity, though the right threshold is dataset-dependent and you calibrate it by eyeballing the borderline pairs. The two methods are complementary: n-grams catch verbatim overlap embeddings can miss (a long shared span in an otherwise different document dilutes cosine), and embeddings catch semantic overlap n-grams miss. A real scan runs both.
The embedding model is itself trained on the public web, so it can be "contaminated" in a way that matters for you: it might map two of your test items close together because it memorized their shared source, not because they are genuinely paraphrases. This is mostly harmless for near-duplicate detection (a false positive just gets a human look), but do not turn around and use the same embedding model as a judge of semantic novelty and call that independent evidence. Keep the contamination checker and any downstream judge as separate model families, for the same self-preference reason Chapter 3.6 gave.
Behavioral probing for the leakage you cannot search
When you cannot search the training corpus (the usual case), you probe the model's behavior for memorization. The cheap, honest version: take a test item, mask its final answer or a salient span, and ask the model to fill it in with greedy decoding. If the model completes a novel item's masked span at chance and completes a suspected-contaminated item's masked span exactly and confidently, that gap is evidence of memorization. More formal membership-inference methods (min-% token probability, guided-versus-unguided prompting) exist and are worth citing in a thesis, but the masked-completion probe is enough to raise a flag that then gets a human decision. Behavioral probing does not prove contamination; it produces a suspicion score that moves an item from "assumed clean" to "manually reviewed."
Dataset versioning and revision pinning
None of the above means anything if the dataset can change under you. The hygiene rule is that an eval dataset is an immutable, content-addressed artifact, and you achieve that in two layers. First, pin the source revision: Hugging Face datasets are git repositories with commit hashes, so you load revision="<commit-sha>", never a bare name that silently tracks main. Second, content-hash the frozen set yourself: after loading and any cleaning, compute a hash over the canonicalized items and record it, so that "the dataset I evaluated on" is a specific 64-hex-character string and not a moving target. Anything you cannot pin and hash, you do not evaluate on. This is the same discipline the hardware baseline chapter applied to measured numbers (a number without a date is a rumor); a dataset without a revision and a content hash is a rumor too.
Tooling
The scan is deliberately CPU-friendly so it runs on the baseline machine without competing with a served model for VRAM. datasets handles revision-pinned loading. datasketch provides MinHash and MinHashLSH for the scalable n-gram near-duplicate pass. For the embedding pass, a small sentence-transformer (a bge-small-class model, on the order of 130M parameters, a few hundred MB) fits trivially and can run on CPU for a few hundred items, or on the GPU in seconds if one is free; either way it is not the memory pressure in this book. The whole scanner is a few hundred lines and produces one JSON report plus a JSONL of flagged pairs for human review. It does not decide to drop items; it surfaces evidence and a recommended action, and a human signs off, because dropping eval items is a decision with statistical consequences (it shrinks , which Chapter 3.7 showed costs you power).
Lab
We scan a thesis-candidate dataset for leakage on three axes: internal near-duplication, overlap against the training pool we intend to use, and a behavioral memorization probe on a sample. The candidate here is a public verifiable-reasoning set (GSM8K-style math word problems stand in as an open, license-clean example); the training pool is whatever corpus the thesis loop will fine-tune on. The scan emits a contamination report.
Project setup
uv init contamscan && cd contamscan
uv add "datasets>=2.19" "datasketch>=1.6" "numpy>=1.26"
uv add "sentence-transformers>=3.0" # small embedding model, CPU-ok
Pinned loading and canonicalization
"""Load datasets at pinned revisions and content-hash them."""
import hashlib, json, re
from datasets import load_dataset
def canonical(text: str) -> str:
"""Normalize so trivial formatting differences do not hide overlap."""
return re.sub(r"\s+", " ", text.strip().lower())
def content_hash(items) -> str:
h = hashlib.sha256()
for it in items:
h.update(canonical(it).encode("utf-8"))
h.update(b"\x00")
return h.hexdigest()
def load_pinned(name: str, split: str, revision: str, field: str):
"""revision MUST be a commit sha, never a bare branch name."""
ds = load_dataset(name, split=split, revision=revision)
items = [canonical(r[field]) for r in ds]
return items, {"name": name, "split": split, "revision": revision,
"n": len(items), "content_sha256": content_hash(items)}
The n-gram / MinHash pass
"""13-gram MinHash-LSH near-duplicate detection (Eq. 8.1)."""
from datasketch import MinHash, MinHashLSH
N = 13 # shingle length; see derivation
NUM_PERM = 128 # MinHash signature length (accuracy vs speed)
def shingles(text: str, n: int = N):
toks = text.split()
if len(toks) < n:
return {text} # short item: whole-string shingle
return {" ".join(toks[i:i + n]) for i in range(len(toks) - n + 1)}
def minhash(text: str) -> MinHash:
m = MinHash(num_perm=NUM_PERM)
for s in shingles(text):
m.update(s.encode("utf-8"))
return m
def build_index(pool_items, threshold=0.5):
"""Index the training pool; threshold is Jaccard for candidate pairs."""
lsh = MinHashLSH(threshold=threshold, num_perm=NUM_PERM)
sigs = {}
for i, txt in enumerate(pool_items):
m = minhash(txt)
sigs[i] = m
lsh.insert(f"pool-{i}", m)
return lsh, sigs
def scan_against_pool(test_items, lsh, sigs, jaccard_flag=0.8):
"""Flag test items whose nearest pool item exceeds jaccard_flag."""
hits = []
for j, txt in enumerate(test_items):
m = minhash(txt)
for key in lsh.query(m): # LSH bucket candidates only
pool_i = int(key.split("-")[1])
jac = m.jaccard(sigs[pool_i]) # Eq. 8.1 (MinHash estimate)
if jac >= jaccard_flag:
hits.append({"test_idx": j, "pool_idx": pool_i,
"jaccard": round(jac, 3), "channel": "ngram"})
return hits
def internal_dups(test_items, jaccard_flag=0.8):
"""Flag near-duplicate pairs *within* the eval set (breaks independence)."""
lsh, sigs = build_index(test_items, threshold=0.5)
seen, hits = set(), []
for j, txt in enumerate(test_items):
m = minhash(txt)
for key in lsh.query(m):
k = int(key.split("-")[1])
if k == j or (min(j, k), max(j, k)) in seen:
continue
jac = m.jaccard(sigs[k])
if jac >= jaccard_flag:
seen.add((min(j, k), max(j, k)))
hits.append({"a_idx": j, "b_idx": k,
"jaccard": round(jac, 3), "channel": "internal"})
return hits
The embedding pass
"""Cosine near-duplicate detection for paraphrase overlap."""
import numpy as np
from sentence_transformers import SentenceTransformer
MODEL = "BAAI/bge-small-en-v1.5" # ~130M params, CPU-friendly
def embed(items, batch_size=64):
model = SentenceTransformer(MODEL)
v = model.encode(items, batch_size=batch_size, normalize_embeddings=True,
show_progress_bar=False)
return np.asarray(v) # already L2-normalized -> dot = cosine
def scan_paraphrase(test_items, pool_items, cos_flag=0.88):
"""Flag test/pool pairs with cosine >= cos_flag (paraphrase leakage)."""
T = embed(test_items); R = embed(pool_items)
sims = T @ R.T # cosine, since both normalized
hits = []
for j in range(sims.shape[0]):
i = int(np.argmax(sims[j]))
c = float(sims[j, i])
if c >= cos_flag:
hits.append({"test_idx": j, "pool_idx": i,
"cosine": round(c, 3), "channel": "embed"})
return hits
Orchestration and the report
"""Run all passes, write the contamination report + flagged pairs."""
import json
from pathlib import Path
from .load import load_pinned
from .ngram import build_index, scan_against_pool, internal_dups
from .embed import scan_paraphrase
def run(test_spec, pool_spec, out_dir="runs"):
test_items, test_meta = load_pinned(**test_spec)
pool_items, pool_meta = load_pinned(**pool_spec)
lsh, sigs = build_index(pool_items)
ngram_hits = scan_against_pool(test_items, lsh, sigs)
internal_hits = internal_dups(test_items)
embed_hits = scan_paraphrase(test_items, pool_items)
flagged_test_idx = sorted(
{h["test_idx"] for h in ngram_hits + embed_hits}
| {i for h in internal_hits for i in (h["a_idx"], h["b_idx"])})
n = test_meta["n"]
report = {
"test": test_meta, "pool": pool_meta,
"counts": {
"ngram_overlap_items": len({h["test_idx"] for h in ngram_hits}),
"paraphrase_overlap_items": len({h["test_idx"] for h in embed_hits}),
"internal_duplicate_pairs": len(internal_hits),
"total_flagged_items": len(flagged_test_idx),
},
"leakage_rate": round(len(flagged_test_idx) / n, 4) if n else 0.0,
"thresholds": {"ngram_n": 13, "jaccard_flag": 0.8, "cosine_flag": 0.88},
"recommended_action": (
"manual review of flagged_pairs.jsonl; drop or replace confirmed "
"leaks; re-run power analysis (Ch 3.7) after any drop since n shrinks"),
"provenance": "run on the baseline machine -- record date, driver",
}
Path(out_dir).mkdir(exist_ok=True)
Path(f"{out_dir}/contamination_report.json").write_text(
json.dumps(report, indent=2))
with open(f"{out_dir}/flagged_pairs.jsonl", "w") as f:
for h in ngram_hits + embed_hits + internal_hits:
f.write(json.dumps(h) + "\n")
print(json.dumps(report, indent=2))
return report
if __name__ == "__main__":
# Pin real commit shas from the dataset's HF page before running.
test_spec = dict(name="openai/gsm8k", split="test",
revision="e53f048856ff4f594e959d75785d2c2d37b678ee",
field="question")
pool_spec = dict(name="openai/gsm8k", split="train",
revision="e53f048856ff4f594e959d75785d2c2d37b678ee",
field="question")
run(test_spec, pool_spec)
The behavioral memorization probe
The two mechanical passes catch overlap you can see in the text; they cannot catch the item whose prompt is genuinely novel but whose answer the model memorized from a solution posted elsewhere. For that you probe behavior. The cheap, honest version masks a salient span of the item (here, the final numeric answer embedded in a worked target) and asks the model, greedily, to complete it. A model that reconstructs the exact masked answer far more often on suspected items than its own accuracy would predict is showing memorization, not reasoning. This does not prove contamination; it raises a flag that a human then adjudicates.
"""Masked-answer completion probe: does the model *reconstruct* the held-out span?"""
import re
from openai import OpenAI
def mask_answer(target: str) -> tuple[str, str]:
"""Replace the last number in the target with a blank; return (masked, gold)."""
nums = list(re.finditer(r"-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?", target))
if not nums:
return target, ""
last = nums[-1]
masked = target[:last.start()] + "____" + target[last.end():]
return masked, last.group(0)
def probe(items, base_url="http://localhost:8000/v1",
model="Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ", flag_rate=0.5):
"""Fraction of items whose masked answer the model fills in exactly.
Greedy decoding so the result is a property of memory, not sampling."""
client = OpenAI(base_url=base_url, api_key="EMPTY")
hits = []
for it in items:
masked, gold = mask_answer(it["target"])
if not gold:
continue
r = client.chat.completions.create(
model=model, temperature=0.0, max_tokens=16,
messages=[{"role": "user", "content":
f"Fill in the blank exactly.\n{it['question']}\n"
f"Answer: {masked}"}])
if gold in (r.choices[0].message.content or ""):
hits.append({"id": it["id"], "reconstructed": gold,
"channel": "behavioral_probe"})
rate = len(hits) / max(len(items), 1)
return {"reconstruction_rate": round(rate, 4),
"suspected": hits, "flagged": rate >= flag_rate,
"note": "high reconstruction vs task accuracy => review for leakage; "
"measured on the baseline machine -- record date, driver"}
Wire the probe's suspected list into the same human-review queue the n-gram and embedding passes feed. The interpretation is comparative, not absolute: a reconstruction rate meaningfully above the model's own answer accuracy on the same items is the signal, because a model that can reason out the answer will also fill the blank, so only the excess over its earned accuracy is evidence of memorized leakage.
The revision shas above are placeholders. Before you run this, open the dataset's Hugging Face page, copy the actual commit sha of the revision you intend to freeze, and paste it in. A bare revision="main" (or omitting it) means the dataset can change between your scan and your eval, which defeats the entire point: you would have certified a version you did not actually evaluate. Pin the sha, then record it in the report, then never change it without bumping the suite version in Chapter 3.9.
The artifact and what you should see
The artifact is runs/contamination_report.json plus runs/flagged_pairs.jsonl. The report records both datasets' names, pinned revisions, and content hashes, the counts from each detection channel (verbatim/near-duplicate n-gram overlap against the pool, paraphrase overlap by embedding, and internal duplicate pairs), an overall leakage rate, the thresholds used, and a recommended action. The flagged-pairs file is the human-review queue: each row names a test item and its most-similar pool item with the similarity that flagged it. On a clean, well-constructed candidate you should see a leakage rate at or near zero and only a handful of borderline embedding hits that turn out to be genuinely different problems that happen to share a topic. On a contaminated candidate you will see clusters of high-Jaccard n-gram hits (near-verbatim overlap) and a leakage rate that is alarmingly non-trivial, at which point the disciplined move is not to quietly delete the flagged items but to review them, decide item by item, and if you drop any, re-run the Chapter 3.7 power analysis because a smaller buys you less power to detect the training delta you care about. A dataset that passes this scan, with its revision pinned and its content hashed, is a dataset you are allowed to freeze into the thesis suite. The actual leakage rate for the thesis candidate is (measured on the baseline machine -- record value, date, driver).
[BRM] builds a reasoning model from scratch and is candid about how much benchmark performance in the wild is memorization rather than reasoning; read its discussion of evaluation alongside this chapter. The framing that pays off for the thesis is that a verifiable task with freshly constructed or transformed items has a small contamination surface by design, which is one more reason the next chapter builds the suite out of checkable, novel items rather than borrowing a famous benchmark wholesale.
When a new open model posts a huge benchmark score, the first question is not "how did it reason so well" but "did it see the test set during pretraining." In the open-weights era contamination is the default hypothesis, not the edge case, because the training corpora are the same scraped web where the benchmarks live. You cannot search a closed corpus, but you can do the next best thing in an afternoon: scan your eval set for verbatim overlap with 13-gram MinHash, catch paraphrases with sentence embeddings, probe the model with masked-answer completion, and pin your dataset to an exact revision hash so "the test set" is a specific 64-character string and not a moving target. A score you cannot certify as uncontaminated is not a measurement of reasoning; it is a measurement of memory.
Building the thesis task suite
This is where the last four chapters cash out. We have metrics that mean something (3.2), tasks and scorers that run (3.3, 3.4), a harness for comparability (3.5), a calibrated judge for the residue that resists exact checking (3.6), the statistics that tell signal from noise (3.7), and a scan that certifies a dataset is not memorized (3.8). Now I use all of it to build and freeze the one object the rest of the thesis is measured against: the task suite, version 1.0, tagged and immutable. Everything downstream (the quantization comparisons, the training deltas, the "did reasoning actually improve" claim that the whole book is pointed at) is a measurement taken with this instrument, so the instrument has to be built with the same care you would build a scale you plan to weigh evidence on. This is the Thesis Thread's capstone for Part III: the SDA-flavored example stops being an illustration and becomes a frozen, versioned, datasheeted artifact.
Theory
What makes a task suitable for a verifiable-reasoning suite
The defining property is that a response can be checked, not just liked. A task earns its place in this suite only if there is a programmatic verifier that maps a model response to correct-or-not without a human and without a judge's opinion. That is the whole reason the thread is "SDA-flavored": these are structured-data reasoning tasks where the answer is a number, a set, a boolean, or a normalized string that a small deterministic checker can validate. Judges (Chapter 3.6) are held in reserve for partial-credit analysis of the reasoning trace; they never decide the primary correctness signal, because a suite whose ground truth depends on a model's opinion inherits that model's biases and cannot anchor a training reward.
Beyond verifiability, four properties separate a good item from a bad one. It must have unambiguous ground truth: exactly one correct answer under a stated normalization, or a checker that accepts exactly the set of correct forms. It must be shortcut-resistant: a model should not be able to guess it from surface cues or answer it without doing the reasoning, which means distractors and structure that punish pattern-matching. It must sit at a useful difficulty: not so easy every model aces it (ceiling, zero discrimination) nor so hard every model fails (floor, also zero discrimination). And it must have a small contamination surface: freshly constructed or programmatically transformed items, so the Chapter 3.8 scan comes back clean by construction rather than by luck.
Difficulty calibration
An item's difficulty is not a property you assign, it is a property you measure, and the cheapest measurement is the empirical pass rate of a reference model. Borrowing the vocabulary of item response theory without the full machinery: each item has a difficulty (what fraction of capable models get it right) and a discrimination (how well it separates stronger models from weaker ones). An item every model passes and an item every model fails both have zero discrimination and are dead weight in a suite meant to detect a training delta, because the delta lives entirely in the items that some models get and some do not. So you pilot: run a reference model (the baseline candidate) over a draft pool, record per-item pass rates, and keep a spread. I bin into three strata (easy: reference pass rate above 0.8; medium: 0.4 to 0.8; hard: below 0.4) and stock all three, because a suite that is all-hard has no ceiling to climb toward and a suite that is all-easy has no signal. The stratification also lets you report per-difficulty deltas later, which is far more informative than a single aggregate number.
Sizing the suite from the power analysis
Here the thread reconnects to Chapter 3.7, and this is the load-bearing quantitative decision of the chapter. The power analysis (Eq. 7.11) told us exactly how many shared items it takes to detect a paired accuracy gain at 80% power and , given a discordant rate : about 194 items for a ten-point gain, 305 items for an eight-point gain, and 783 items for a five-point gain. These are not round numbers I picked; they came out of the derivation and are checked by evalstats.required_n_mcnemar in the test suite. Now I trade detectable effect against the cost of hand-verifying items.
Choosing the suite size. The thesis needs to detect training deltas that are scientifically interesting but not enormous; sub-five-point gains are hard to argue matter, and ten-point gains would be a very strong result I should not design only for. Targeting an eight-point detectable paired gain sets the required test size at shared items (Eq. 7.11 with , , power 0.80, ; the formula gives 304.23 and np.ceil rounds up to 305). I round to 300 test items, stratified as 100 easy / 100 medium / 100 hard, plus a separate 60-item dev slice for prompt and pipeline iteration that is never scored in a reported result. Rounding 305 down to 300 shaves the power by a negligible amount: redo Eq. 7.10's logic and the achieved power at for is within a fraction of a percent of 0.80, well inside the slack already present in the assumption.
Two escape hatches are worth stating now so v2.0 has somewhere to go. If a five-point gain must be detectable, the suite has to grow to ~780 items, roughly the hand-verification cost. Alternatively, drawing multiple completions per item and analyzing with the clustered bootstrap (Chapter 3.7) reduces within-item variance and buys back some power without adding items, at the cost of more inference. v1.0 commits to 300 items and an eight-point target; the escape hatches are documented, not taken.
The dev/test split is a hygiene decision as important as the size. The 300 test items are frozen and never used to tune a prompt, pick a checkpoint, or debug the harness, because every look at the test set with an eye to improving a number is a tiny act of overfitting the eval. All iteration happens on the 60-item dev slice. This is the same firewall a machine-learning practitioner puts between a validation and a test set, applied to eval engineering.
Freezing v1.0
Freezing is what turns a folder of JSONL into a citable artifact. It has four parts. Content-hash every item and the suite as a whole, so "suite v1.0" is a specific SHA-256 and not a description. Pin provenance: for every item, record where it came from (generated by which procedure, or transformed from which pinned dataset revision) and its license. Write a datasheet: following the Datasheets for Datasets discipline, document motivation, composition, collection, preprocessing, recommended uses, and known limitations, so a future reader (including future me) knows what the suite is and is not for. Tag it in git: a signed, immutable suite-v1.0 tag whose commit contains the frozen JSONL, the manifest with hashes, and the datasheet. After the tag, the rule is absolute: v1.0 never changes. A correction is v1.1, a growth is v2.0, and every reported result names the exact version it used.
Tooling
The suite lives as JSONL in the Inspect-compatible schema from Chapter 3.3, so the same task and scorer machinery runs it. Each item carries the fields the scorer and the statistics need: a stable id, the domain and difficulty stratum, the input/question, the target answer, a verifier type naming which deterministic checker validates it, and provenance/license. Content hashing uses hashlib; MLflow logs the suite version, hashes, and per-stratum counts as a run so the freeze event itself is tracked on the spine. The verifiers are small pure functions (exact-match after normalization, set equality, numeric-with-tolerance, boolean) kept in one module so the checker for every item is auditable in one place.
Lab
We build the suite, pilot it to calibrate difficulty, freeze it to v1.0 with a manifest and datasheet, and tag it. The generation of items is domain-specific; I show the schema, the verifiers, the difficulty-calibration pilot, and the freeze machinery, with a small illustrative item set that a real run scales to 360 items (300 test + 60 dev).
Project setup
uv init thesis-suite && cd thesis-suite
uv add "numpy>=1.26" "openai>=1.40" # openai client to hit the served model
uv add "mlflow>=2.14"
uv add --editable ../evalstats # the module from Chapter 3.7
The item schema and verifiers
"""Deterministic checkers. The primary correctness signal is never a judge."""
import re
from fractions import Fraction
def _norm(s: str) -> str:
return re.sub(r"\s+", " ", str(s).strip().lower())
def exact_match(response: str, target: str) -> bool:
return _norm(response) == _norm(target)
def numeric(response: str, target: str, tol: float = 1e-6) -> bool:
"""Extract the last number in the response; compare to target within tol."""
nums = re.findall(r"-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?", response.replace(",", ""))
if not nums:
return False
try:
return abs(float(nums[-1]) - float(Fraction(target))) <= tol
except (ValueError, ZeroDivisionError):
return False
def set_equal(response: str, target: str) -> bool:
"""Compare comma-separated sets, order-insensitive, after normalization."""
r = {_norm(x) for x in response.split(",") if x.strip()}
t = {_norm(x) for x in target.split(",") if x.strip()}
return r == t
def boolean(response: str, target: str) -> bool:
truthy = {"yes", "true", "1"}; falsy = {"no", "false", "0"}
r = _norm(response)
tgt = _norm(target) in truthy
# grab the model's yes/no verdict token
hit = next((w for w in re.findall(r"[a-z]+", r) if w in truthy | falsy), None)
return hit is not None and (hit in truthy) == tgt
VERIFIERS = {"exact": exact_match, "numeric": numeric,
"set": set_equal, "boolean": boolean}
def check(item: dict, response: str) -> bool:
return VERIFIERS[item["verifier"]](response, item["target"])
{"id": "sda-0001", "domain": "table-reasoning", "verifier": "exact", "input": "Region,Q1,Q2\nNorth,812,640\nWest,900,705\nEast,540,560", "question": "Which region had the largest quarter-over-quarter revenue drop?", "target": "West", "provenance": "generated:table-synth-v1", "license": "CC0-1.0"}
{"id": "sda-0002", "domain": "sql-semantics", "verifier": "numeric", "input": "Table t(amount, status). Rows: (120,paid),(90,paid),(200,unpaid),(150,paid),(80,paid)", "question": "How many rows satisfy amount>100 AND status='paid'?", "target": "2", "provenance": "generated:sql-synth-v1", "license": "CC0-1.0"}
{"id": "sda-0003", "domain": "schema-normalization", "verifier": "boolean", "input": "R(id PK, zip, city); zip -> city holds.", "question": "Is R in third normal form? Answer yes or no.", "target": "no", "provenance": "generated:schema-synth-v1", "license": "CC0-1.0"}
{"id": "sda-0004", "domain": "set-reasoning", "verifier": "set", "input": "A={1,2,3,4,6}; B={2,4,5,6,8}", "question": "List the elements in A but not in B, comma-separated.", "target": "1, 3", "provenance": "generated:set-synth-v1", "license": "CC0-1.0"}
The difficulty-calibration pilot
"""Run the reference model over the draft pool; record per-item pass rate."""
import json
from pathlib import Path
from collections import defaultdict
from openai import OpenAI
from suite.verifiers import check
REF_MODEL = "Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ" # the baseline reference; NOT the judge here
N_SAMPLES = 4 # completions per item for a stable pass rate
def pass_rate(client, item):
correct = 0
for _ in range(N_SAMPLES):
r = client.chat.completions.create(
model=REF_MODEL,
messages=[{"role": "user",
"content": f"{item['input']}\n\n{item['question']}"}],
temperature=0.7, max_tokens=512)
if check(item, r.choices[0].message.content):
correct += 1
return correct / N_SAMPLES
def stratum(p):
return "easy" if p > 0.8 else ("hard" if p < 0.4 else "medium")
def run(draft="suite/draft/items_sample.jsonl", base_url="http://localhost:8000/v1"):
client = OpenAI(base_url=base_url, api_key="EMPTY")
items = [json.loads(l) for l in Path(draft).read_text().splitlines()]
counts = defaultdict(int)
for it in items:
p = pass_rate(client, it)
it["ref_pass_rate"] = round(p, 3)
it["difficulty"] = stratum(p)
counts[it["difficulty"]] += 1
Path("suite/calibrated").mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
Path("suite/calibrated/items.jsonl").write_text(
"\n".join(json.dumps(it) for it in items))
print("stratum counts:", dict(counts),
"\nref pass rates: measured on the baseline machine -- record date, driver")
return items
if __name__ == "__main__":
run()
The pilot uses N_SAMPLES = 4 completions per item so the pass rate is a stable difficulty estimate rather than a single coin flip, and it uses temperature 0.7 to reflect how the model is actually decoded in the eval, not a degenerate greedy pass. A real run curates the draft pool until each stratum has enough items to hit the target counts (100 test items per stratum plus dev-slice headroom), pruning items that land at pass rate exactly 0 or 1 as non-discriminating.
Freezing and the manifest
"""Freeze the calibrated suite: split, content-hash, manifest, MLflow, git tag."""
import json, hashlib, subprocess, random
from pathlib import Path
import mlflow
VERSION = "1.0"
TEST_PER_STRATUM = 100
DEV_TOTAL = 60
SEED = 20260722 # frozen split seed, recorded so the split is reproducible
def sha256_items(items):
h = hashlib.sha256()
for it in sorted(items, key=lambda x: x["id"]):
h.update(json.dumps(it, sort_keys=True).encode())
h.update(b"\x00")
return h.hexdigest()
def split(items):
by = {"easy": [], "medium": [], "hard": []}
for it in items:
by[it["difficulty"]].append(it)
rng = random.Random(SEED)
test, dev = [], []
dev_per = DEV_TOTAL // 3
for s in ("easy", "medium", "hard"):
pool = by[s][:]; rng.shuffle(pool)
dev += pool[:dev_per]
test += pool[dev_per:dev_per + TEST_PER_STRATUM]
return test, dev
def freeze():
items = [json.loads(l) for l in
Path("suite/calibrated/items.jsonl").read_text().splitlines()]
test, dev = split(items)
out = Path(f"suite/frozen/v{VERSION}"); out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
(out / "test.jsonl").write_text("\n".join(json.dumps(i) for i in test))
(out / "dev.jsonl").write_text("\n".join(json.dumps(i) for i in dev))
manifest = {
"name": "thesis-task-suite",
"version": VERSION,
"split_seed": SEED,
"counts": {"test": len(test), "dev": len(dev),
"test_per_stratum": {
s: sum(i["difficulty"] == s for i in test)
for s in ("easy", "medium", "hard")}},
"sizing_rationale": {
"target_detectable_delta": 0.08, "power": 0.80, "alpha": 0.05,
"assumed_discordant_rate": 0.25,
"required_n_from_ch37": 305, "chosen_n": 300,
"source": "evalstats.required_n_mcnemar (Eq. 7.11)"},
"content_sha256": {"test": sha256_items(test), "dev": sha256_items(dev)},
"verifiers": sorted({i["verifier"] for i in items}),
"created": "record date, driver on the baseline machine",
}
(out / "manifest.json").write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
mlflow.set_experiment("thesis-suite")
with mlflow.start_run(run_name=f"freeze-v{VERSION}"):
mlflow.log_params({"version": VERSION, "split_seed": SEED,
"chosen_n": 300, "target_delta": 0.08})
mlflow.log_metrics({"n_test": len(test), "n_dev": len(dev)})
mlflow.set_tags({"suite_test_sha256": manifest["content_sha256"]["test"]})
mlflow.log_artifacts(str(out), artifact_path=f"suite-v{VERSION}")
print(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
return manifest
if __name__ == "__main__":
m = freeze()
# Tag the freeze in git so v1.0 is immutable.
subprocess.run(["git", "add", f"suite/frozen/v{VERSION}"], check=True)
subprocess.run(["git", "commit", "-m",
f"Freeze thesis task suite v{VERSION} "
f"(n_test={m['counts']['test']}, "
f"sha={m['content_sha256']['test'][:12]})"], check=True)
subprocess.run(["git", "tag", "-a", f"suite-v{VERSION}", "-m",
f"Thesis task suite v{VERSION}"], check=True)
The datasheet
# Datasheet: Thesis Task Suite v1.0
## Motivation
Built to measure verifiable-reasoning ability of open-weight models across the
serve-evaluate-score-train loop, and to serve as the fixed instrument against
which every training delta in this thesis is measured.
## Composition
300 test items + 60 dev items, SDA-flavored structured-data reasoning
(table reasoning, SQL semantics, schema normalization, set reasoning).
Each item has exactly one programmatically verifiable answer. Stratified
100/100/100 easy/medium/hard by reference-model pass rate.
## Sizing
n_test = 300 chosen to detect an 8-point paired accuracy gain at 80% power,
alpha = 0.05, assumed discordant rate 0.25 (evalstats, Eq. 7.11 -> 305, rounded).
## Collection & preprocessing
Items generated or programmatically transformed (small contamination surface);
scanned with the Chapter 3.8 contamination pipeline (13-gram MinHash + embedding).
Difficulty calibrated with a 4-sample pilot at temperature 0.7 on the reference
model. Recorded content SHA-256 in manifest.json.
## Recommended uses & limits
USE: paired A/B comparisons on shared items with the Chapter 3.7 statistics.
DO NOT: tune prompts, pick checkpoints, or debug on test.jsonl (use dev.jsonl).
Known limits: single domain family; verifier normalization may reject unusual
but correct answer forms (audit false negatives before reporting).
## Maintenance
v1.0 is immutable (git tag suite-v1.0). Corrections -> v1.1; growth -> v2.0.
Every reported result cites the version and content hash it used.
The thesis_suite convenience package
The suite/ package above is the builder: it calibrates, freezes, and datasheets. But the chapters downstream (the judge calibration in 3.6, the reward core in Part VII) do not want to reach into suite/frozen/ and re-implement item loading and verifier dispatch every time. So I add one thin package, thesis_suite, that wraps the frozen split and the audited verifiers behind a single stable surface. It builds nothing new: load_suite reads the frozen JSONL, and every correctness call routes back into suite.verifiers (Chapter 3.9) or the extract-and-compare reward core (Chapter 3.4), so the semantics are exactly what was validated here. Downstream code imports thesis_suite and never has to know where the JSONL lives or which checker an item uses.
"""Stable import surface over the frozen thesis task suite (v1.0) and its
verifiers. Chapters 6.x (judges) and 7.x (rewards) import from HERE, not from
suite internals. Thin by design: all real logic lives in suite/verifiers.py
(Ch 3.9) and the frozen JSONL under suite/frozen/ (this chapter)."""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from dataclasses import dataclass
from pathlib import Path
from suite.verifiers import VERIFIERS, exact_match, numeric
_FROZEN = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "suite" / "frozen"
_DEFAULT_REV = "v1.0"
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class Item:
id: str
prompt: str # input + question, exactly as the model is asked
answer: str # the gold target
difficulty: str # easy | medium | hard
verifier: str # which deterministic checker validates it
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class Suite:
items: list[Item]
revision: str
def _to_item(raw: dict) -> Item:
prompt = (f"{raw['input']}\n\n{raw['question']}"
if raw.get("input") else raw["question"])
return Item(id=raw["id"], prompt=prompt, answer=raw["target"],
difficulty=raw.get("difficulty", "medium"),
verifier=raw.get("verifier", "exact"))
def load_suite(rev: str | None = None) -> Suite:
"""Load the frozen TEST split at revision `rev` (default v1.0)."""
rev = rev or _DEFAULT_REV
path = _FROZEN / rev / "test.jsonl"
raw = [json.loads(l) for l in path.read_text().splitlines() if l.strip()]
return Suite(items=[_to_item(r) for r in raw], revision=rev)
def verify(item: Item, response: str) -> bool:
"""Primary correctness signal for an item: dispatch to its own verifier
(Ch 3.9). This is the number every reported score is built from."""
return VERIFIERS[item.verifier](response, item.answer)
def verify_sda_answer(response: str, target: str) -> bool:
"""Low-level extract-and-compare reward core (Ch 3.4): pull the answer out
of a free-form response and compare to `target` -- numeric extraction first
(the dominant SDA answer form), exact-match after normalization otherwise.
This is the pure function Part VII turns into a training reward."""
return numeric(response, target) or exact_match(response, target)
def verify_correct(prompt: str, response: str, answer: str) -> bool:
"""Verify a (prompt, response, answer) triple when the caller has no Item
in hand (6.x, 7.x). `prompt` is accepted for call-site symmetry; correctness
routes through the same reward core as `verify_sda_answer`."""
return verify_sda_answer(response, answer)
def score_model(client, suite: Suite, *, model: str = "Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ",
temperature: float = 0.0, max_tokens: int = 512,
seed: int = 0) -> list[dict]:
"""Score `model` (served behind an OpenAI-compatible `client`) over the
suite; return one row per item with response, correctness, and difficulty.
Greedy by default so the score is a fixed measurement, not a coin flip."""
rows = []
for it in suite.items:
r = client.chat.completions.create(
model=model,
messages=[{"role": "user", "content": it.prompt}],
temperature=temperature, max_tokens=max_tokens, seed=seed)
resp = r.choices[0].message.content
rows.append({"id": it.id, "response": resp,
"correct": verify(it, resp), "difficulty": it.difficulty})
return rows
__all__ = ["Item", "Suite", "load_suite", "verify", "verify_sda_answer",
"verify_correct", "score_model"]
The split of responsibility is deliberate: verify is the item-aware primary signal (it honors each item's declared checker, so a set item is graded set-wise and a numeric item numerically), while verify_sda_answer is the item-agnostic reward core that Part VII optimizes against. They agree on the SDA-flavored items the reward is trained on; keeping both means a downstream caller can grade against the frozen suite or score a free-form generation with the same package.
The SDA thread has been a running illustration since the preface; here it becomes a real artifact. We now hold thesis task suite v1.0: 300 frozen, content-hashed, difficulty-stratified, contamination-scanned verifiable-reasoning items plus a 60-item dev slice, sized by the power analysis to resolve an eight-point paired gain, tagged suite-v1.0 in git with a datasheet. From this point on, every claim the thesis makes ("INT4 matches BF16 on reasoning," "GRPO training moved the reasoning delta") is a paired comparison taken on this exact instrument, cited by version and hash. Part IV interrogates whether the deltas measured on it are causal; Parts V through VII generate and score against it and try to move its number. The instrument is built; the rest of the book is readings from it.
The artifact and what you should see
The artifacts are suite/frozen/v1.0/{test.jsonl, dev.jsonl, manifest.json, DATASHEET.md} and the immutable git tag suite-v1.0, with the freeze event logged to MLflow. Running the pilot then the freeze, you should see the calibration pass sort items into easy/medium/hard by measured reference pass rate, the split place exactly 100 items per stratum into test.jsonl and 20 per stratum into dev.jsonl, and the manifest record two content hashes (test and dev) plus the full sizing rationale that traces the 300-item choice back to Eq. 7.11 and evalstats.required_n_mcnemar. The MLflow run stores the suite as a versioned artifact tagged with its test-set hash, and git tag makes v1.0 permanent. The one thing you must verify by eye before trusting the freeze is the verifier false-negative rate: spot-check that the deterministic checkers accept genuinely-correct answers in unusual forms, because a verifier that rejects a right answer silently deflates every score taken on the suite. Once that check passes, you have a frozen instrument, and the discipline for the rest of the book is simple: never score on the test set to make a decision, always cite the version and hash, and let the next parts of the loop do their work against a target that does not move. Actual per-stratum pass rates and the final content hashes are (measured on the baseline machine -- record value, date, driver).
[BRM] is the natural companion for suite design: it argues that a reasoning model is only as good as the verifiable signal you can construct, which is exactly why this suite is built from checkable items rather than judge-graded ones. Read its treatment of task construction next to this chapter's difficulty calibration; the two together are the argument for why a small, well-calibrated, verifier-backed suite beats a large, noisy, opinion-graded one for measuring a training delta.
Everyone wants to evaluate their model on a famous benchmark. Almost no one stops to size the benchmark to the question they are actually asking. If you want to prove a training run improved reasoning by, say, eight points, the power analysis tells you the answer before you spend a single GPU-hour: roughly 300 shared items, if a quarter of them flip between the two models. Fewer than that and a real improvement will hide inside the noise; many more and you are hand-verifying items you did not need. Building the suite backward from the effect you want to detect (then stratifying by difficulty, scanning for contamination, freezing to an immutable content hash, and writing a datasheet) is the difference between an instrument you can defend to a committee and a folder of JSON you hope is fine.
Eval ops
Every chapter in this part produced an artifact: scored responses, a judge reliability report, the evalstats module, a contamination report, the frozen suite. This chapter is about the boring infrastructure that keeps all of those from rotting: where the files live, how they get logged, when they move to the archive tier, and the one operating rule that saves more time and compute than any other in the book. That rule is: never re-generate what you can re-score. Generation is the expensive, stochastic, hard-to-reproduce step; scoring is cheap and repeatable. If you keep them separate and persist the generations immutably, then changing a scorer, fixing a verifier, or swapping a judge costs seconds instead of GPU-hours, and every re-analysis is provably taken on the same responses. This chapter turns that principle into an MLflow schema, a directory layout, an archive policy, and a re-scoring workflow, and packages them as a runbook you can follow at 2am without thinking.
Theory
The two axes: generation and scoring
An eval result is the composition of two very different operations. Generation runs the model: it consumes VRAM, takes real wall-clock time, depends on the serving stack and the seed, and is only approximately reproducible because decoding is stochastic and kernels are nondeterministic across driver versions. Scoring runs a function over the saved generations: it is cheap, CPU-bound, deterministic given the scorer version, and perfectly reproducible. The single most consequential design decision in eval ops is to treat these as separate, persisted stages rather than one fused pipeline.
When they are fused (generate-and-score in one script that throws away the raw text) you pay the generation cost every time you touch anything. Fix a bug in the answer-extraction regex? Regenerate. Add a per-stratum breakdown? Regenerate. Try the challenger judge from Chapter 3.6? Regenerate. Each regeneration also changes the responses (different seed, different decode), so you can no longer tell whether a metric moved because your scorer changed or because the generations changed. When they are separated (generate once, persist, score many times) all of those become re-scores over a fixed, content-addressed set of responses, and the only thing that varies is the thing you meant to vary.
The subtle trap is re-generating "just to be safe" when you actually only changed the scorer. It feels harmless, but it silently confounds your comparison: you wanted to measure the effect of the new scorer and instead you measured the new scorer plus a fresh draw of generations. If you ever find yourself re-running the model because you tweaked a rubric, a verifier, or a judge, stop. The saved generations.jsonl is the input; re-score it. Regeneration is reserved for exactly one situation: the model, its weights, its decoding parameters, or the prompt template changed. Nothing else.
Content addressing makes provenance unambiguous
The mechanism that makes "re-score, don't regenerate" auditable is content addressing. When you persist a set of generations, you hash it (SHA-256 over the canonicalized responses) and that hash is the identity of the generation set. Every score run then records which generation hash it consumed. Now a metric is not floating free; it is bound to (this exact set of responses, scored by this exact scorer version). Two score runs that cite the same generation hash are guaranteed comparable because they scored literally the same text. A re-score after fixing a verifier is a new score run citing the same generation hash, and the diff between old and new metrics is attributable entirely to the verifier change, with proof. This is the same discipline the suite freeze used in Chapter 3.9, applied to the hot path.
The MLflow schema for eval runs
MLflow is the tracking spine for the whole book, and eval runs get a fixed schema so that a run from six months ago is legible today. The natural hierarchy is a parent run per eval campaign with nested child runs per model (or per phase, before/after training), which keeps a comparison's members grouped. The schema pins down what goes in each of MLflow's four buckets.
Params (the inputs that define the run): model name and revision, suite name plus version plus content hash, decoding parameters (temperature, top-p, max tokens, seed), the judge model plus version and token budget if a judge was used, and the generation hash the scoring consumed. Metrics (the outputs, never bare): the accuracy point estimate with its bootstrap CI bounds from evalstats, per-stratum accuracies, and for a comparison the paired difference with its CI and p-value. Tags (the searchable metadata): the git commit of the eval code, the suite git tag, the pipeline phase, and the scorer version. Artifacts (the files): generations.jsonl, scores.jsonl, metrics.json, and the manifest.json that ties them together by hash. The rule that makes this pay off is that a metric logged without its CI is a schema violation; Chapter 3.7 built the module precisely so that logging the interval is as easy as logging the point.
Artifact layout on the working tier
Runs live on the 1TB NVMe working tier in a flat, dated, self-describing convention:
runs/
2026-07-22_qwen3-14b-awq_suite-v1.0/
generations.jsonl # immutable raw model responses (the expensive artifact)
scores.jsonl # per-item score under a named scorer version
metrics.json # aggregate metrics + evalstats CIs
manifest.json # hashes tying it all together; provenance
logs/ # serving + scoring logs
The directory name encodes date, model, and suite version so it sorts chronologically and is identifiable at a glance. generations.jsonl is written once and never edited; scores.jsonl may have siblings (scores.judge-qwen.jsonl, scores.verifier-v2.jsonl) when the same generations are scored multiple ways. The manifest.json is the index: it records the generation hash, which scorer produced which scores file, and the MLflow run id, so the on-disk directory and the tracking server never drift apart.
Archive policy: promotion to the NAS
The NVMe tier is for the working set; the 5TB NAS is the archive. The discipline from the hardware-baseline chapter becomes a concrete promotion rule here. A run is promoted when it is done: tagged, referenced in a result, and unlikely to be re-scored soon. Promotion moves the bulky, cold artifact (generations.jsonl, which dominates the byte count) to the NAS, leaves the small hot artifacts (metrics.json, manifest.json) on NVMe, and records the NAS path in the manifest so the generations are still findable. The metrics stay fast to query; the raw text stops eating the fast disk. Nothing in the hot path ever reaches across the network, because a re-score of an active run happens before promotion, while its generations are still on NVMe. The retention rule is simple and generous: generations are never deleted, only moved, because they are the expensive thing and disk is cheaper than a GPU-hour.
Tooling
The conventions above are enforced by a thin evalops helper rather than left to discipline, because a convention you have to remember is a convention you will violate at 2am. It does four things: record_generation writes and hashes a generation set and logs it to MLflow; record_scoring scores an existing generation set (by hash) with a named scorer and logs the metrics with their evalstats intervals; promote moves a finished run's generations to the NAS and updates the manifest; and resolve finds a generation set's current location (NVMe or NAS) by hash. MLflow is the spine; the helper just guarantees the schema and the content-addressing are applied every time. The primary artifact of this chapter is the runbook that ties these into a sequence; the helper is the runbook made executable.
Lab
We produce the eval-ops runbook (the artifact) plus the evalops helper it references, then walk the worked sequence that proves the discipline: generate once, score with a verifier, re-score with a fixed verifier without regenerating, and confirm both scorings cite the same generation hash in MLflow.
Project setup
uv init evalops && cd evalops
uv add "mlflow>=2.14" "numpy>=1.26"
uv add --editable ../evalstats # Chapter 3.7
uv add --editable ../thesis-suite # Chapter 3.9 verifiers
The helper
"""Enforce the eval-ops schema: content-addressed generations, re-scorable."""
import json, hashlib, os, shutil
from pathlib import Path
from datetime import date
import mlflow
import evalstats as es
WORKING = Path("runs") # NVMe working tier
ARCHIVE = Path("/mnt/nas/eval-archive") # 5TB NAS archive tier
def _hash_generations(records) -> str:
h = hashlib.sha256()
for r in sorted(records, key=lambda x: x["id"]):
h.update(json.dumps({"id": r["id"], "response": r["response"]},
sort_keys=True).encode())
h.update(b"\x00")
return h.hexdigest()
def run_dir(model: str, suite_version: str) -> Path:
slug = model.split("/")[-1].lower()
d = WORKING / f"{date.today().isoformat()}_{slug}_suite-v{suite_version}"
(d / "logs").mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
return d
def record_generation(records, model, revision, suite_version, suite_hash,
decode_params):
"""Persist raw responses ONCE, hash them, log to MLflow. The expensive step."""
d = run_dir(model, suite_version)
(d / "generations.jsonl").write_text(
"\n".join(json.dumps(r) for r in records))
gen_hash = _hash_generations(records)
manifest = {"model": model, "revision": revision,
"suite_version": suite_version, "suite_hash": suite_hash,
"generation_sha256": gen_hash, "decode_params": decode_params,
"scorings": {}, "generations_location": str(d / "generations.jsonl"),
"promoted": False}
(d / "manifest.json").write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
mlflow.set_experiment("evals")
with mlflow.start_run(run_name=f"gen-{d.name}") as run:
mlflow.log_params({"model": model, "revision": revision,
"suite_version": suite_version, **decode_params})
mlflow.set_tags({"generation_sha256": gen_hash, "phase": "generate"})
mlflow.log_artifact(str(d / "generations.jsonl"))
manifest["gen_run_id"] = run.info.run_id
(d / "manifest.json").write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
print(f"generated {len(records)} responses -> {d} (hash {gen_hash[:12]})")
return d, gen_hash
def record_scoring(run_path, scorer_fn, scorer_version, items_by_id, groups=None):
"""Score EXISTING generations (never regenerate). Log metrics + CIs."""
d = Path(run_path)
manifest = json.loads((d / "manifest.json").read_text())
gens = [json.loads(l) for l in
(d / "generations.jsonl").read_text().splitlines()]
scores = []
for g in gens:
ok = scorer_fn(items_by_id[g["id"]], g["response"])
scores.append({"id": g["id"], "score": int(ok)})
scores_file = d / f"scores.{scorer_version}.jsonl"
scores_file.write_text("\n".join(json.dumps(s) for s in scores))
y = [s["score"] for s in scores]
acc = es.bootstrap_mean(y, groups=groups, name="accuracy") # never bare
metrics = {"scorer_version": scorer_version,
"generation_sha256": manifest["generation_sha256"],
"accuracy": acc.to_dict()}
(d / f"metrics.{scorer_version}.json").write_text(json.dumps(metrics, indent=2))
manifest["scorings"][scorer_version] = scores_file.name
(d / "manifest.json").write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
mlflow.set_experiment("evals")
with mlflow.start_run(run_name=f"score-{scorer_version}-{d.name}"):
# Same generation hash => provably same responses as any other scoring.
mlflow.set_tags({"generation_sha256": manifest["generation_sha256"],
"scorer_version": scorer_version, "phase": "score"})
mlflow.log_params({"suite_version": manifest["suite_version"]})
mlflow.log_metrics(acc.as_mlflow())
mlflow.log_artifact(str(scores_file))
print(f"scored with {scorer_version}: acc={acc.point:.3f} "
f"[{acc.ci_low:.3f}, {acc.ci_high:.3f}] on gen {manifest['generation_sha256'][:12]}")
return acc
def promote(run_path):
"""Move cold generations to NAS; keep hot metrics on NVMe. Never delete."""
d = Path(run_path)
manifest = json.loads((d / "manifest.json").read_text())
ARCHIVE.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
dest = ARCHIVE / d.name
dest.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
shutil.move(str(d / "generations.jsonl"), str(dest / "generations.jsonl"))
manifest["generations_location"] = str(dest / "generations.jsonl")
manifest["promoted"] = True
(d / "manifest.json").write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
print(f"promoted generations -> {dest} (metrics stay on NVMe)")
def resolve(run_path) -> str:
"""Find the generations for a run, on NVMe or NAS, by manifest."""
manifest = json.loads((Path(run_path) / "manifest.json").read_text())
loc = manifest["generations_location"]
if not Path(loc).exists():
raise FileNotFoundError(f"generations missing at {loc}; check NAS mount")
return loc
The worked sequence
"""Generate once, score twice (fix a verifier) without regenerating."""
import json
from pathlib import Path
from evalops.ops import record_generation, record_scoring, promote
# Pretend these came from a served model over the frozen suite (Ch 3.9).
GENERATIONS = [
{"id": "sda-0002", "response": "Filtering... the count is 2."},
{"id": "sda-0004", "response": "1,3"}, # no space: v1 exact-match fails, v2 set-check passes
]
ITEMS = {
"sda-0002": {"verifier": "numeric", "target": "2"},
"sda-0004": {"verifier": "set", "target": "1, 3"},
}
def verifier_v1(item, response):
# v1 set-checker: naive split, space-sensitive -> WRONG on "1,3"
if item["verifier"] == "numeric":
import re
n = re.findall(r"-?\d+", response); return bool(n) and n[-1] == item["target"]
return response.strip() == item["target"] # brittle exact string
def verifier_v2(item, response):
# v2: use the audited suite verifiers (order- and space-insensitive set)
from suite.verifiers import check
return check(item, response)
if __name__ == "__main__":
d, gh = record_generation(
GENERATIONS, model="Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ", revision="<sha>",
suite_version="1.0", suite_hash="<suite-sha>",
decode_params={"temperature": 0.7, "top_p": 0.95,
"max_tokens": 512, "seed": 0})
# Score with the buggy v1 verifier.
record_scoring(d, verifier_v1, "verifier-v1", ITEMS)
# Fix the verifier and RE-SCORE the SAME generations. No regeneration.
record_scoring(d, verifier_v2, "verifier-v2", ITEMS)
# Campaign done: promote cold generations to the NAS.
promote(d)
Comparing two runs the right way
The payoff of the schema is that an A-versus-B comparison (BF16 versus INT4, before-training versus after) becomes a paired analysis over two scorings that share a suite, wrapped in a parent campaign run. Because both models were scored on the same frozen suite items, the correct test is McNemar or a paired-difference bootstrap from Chapter 3.7, never two marginal CIs eyeballed for overlap. The helper below reads two runs' score files, aligns them by item id, and logs the paired result under a parent run.
"""Paired A/B comparison over two runs that scored the same frozen suite."""
import json
from pathlib import Path
import mlflow
import evalstats as es
def load_scores(run_dir, scorer_version):
d = Path(run_dir)
rows = [json.loads(l) for l in
(d / f"scores.{scorer_version}.jsonl").read_text().splitlines()]
return {r["id"]: r["score"] for r in rows}
def compare(run_a, run_b, scorer_version, label_a, label_b):
sa, sb = load_scores(run_a, scorer_version), load_scores(run_b, scorer_version)
ids = sorted(set(sa) & set(sb)) # shared items only -> paired
a = [sa[i] for i in ids]; b = [sb[i] for i in ids]
delta = es.bootstrap_paired_diff(a, b, name="delta") # Ch 3.7 paired CI
mc = es.mcnemar(a, b) # exact paired test
mlflow.set_experiment("evals")
with mlflow.start_run(run_name=f"compare-{label_a}-vs-{label_b}"):
mlflow.log_params({"model_a": label_a, "model_b": label_b,
"scorer_version": scorer_version, "n_shared": len(ids)})
mlflow.log_metrics({**delta.as_mlflow(), "mcnemar_p": mc.pvalue})
print(f"delta(a-b)={delta.point:+.3f} [{delta.ci_low:+.3f},{delta.ci_high:+.3f}]"
f" McNemar p={mc.pvalue:.4f} (n_shared={len(ids)})")
return delta, mc
The parent-run/child-run shape falls out naturally: the two gen/score runs are the children (one per model), and the compare run is the parent that records the verdict. A reviewer opening MLflow six months later sees the two models, the exact suite version and hash they were scored on, the shared-item count, and a paired difference with its confidence interval and p-value, which is a defensible claim rather than two floating numbers.
The runbook
# Eval Ops Runbook
## The one rule
Never re-generate what you can re-score. Regenerate ONLY when the model, its
weights, decoding params, or prompt template change. A scorer/verifier/judge/
rubric change is a RE-SCORE over the saved generations, never a regeneration.
## Generate (expensive; do once)
1. Serve the model with vLLM (serve/save/swap; see Ch 3.6).
2. record_generation(...) -> writes runs/<date>_<model>_suite-vX/generations.jsonl,
hashes it (SHA-256), logs an MLflow gen-run tagged generation_sha256.
3. generations.jsonl is now IMMUTABLE. Never edit it.
## Score / re-score (cheap; do often)
1. record_scoring(run_dir, scorer_fn, scorer_version, items) over the SAME
generations. Writes scores.<version>.jsonl + metrics.<version>.json.
2. Every metric carries an evalstats bootstrap CI. Bare metrics are forbidden.
3. Every score run logs the SAME generation_sha256 => scorings are provably
comparable (same responses). Compare A/B with evalstats.mcnemar / paired diff.
## MLflow schema
- Parent run per campaign; child run per model/phase.
- params: model, revision, suite_version, suite_hash, decode params, judge+budget.
- metrics: accuracy.point/ci_low/ci_high, per-stratum, paired delta + CI + p.
- tags: git commit, suite tag, phase (generate|score), scorer_version, generation_sha256.
- artifacts: generations.jsonl, scores.*.jsonl, metrics.*.json, manifest.json.
## Storage tiers
- Working (NVMe, runs/): active generations + all metrics. Hot path never hits NAS.
- Archive (NAS, /mnt/nas/eval-archive/): promoted generations.
## Archive policy
- Promote when a run is done: tagged, cited in a result, unlikely to re-score soon.
- promote(run_dir) moves generations.jsonl to NAS, keeps metrics/manifest on NVMe,
records NAS path in manifest. Generations are MOVED, never DELETED.
- Re-score BEFORE promotion (generations still on NVMe). To re-score a promoted
run, resolve(run_dir) locates the generations on the NAS first.
## Disaster check
- resolve(run_dir) must succeed for every cited result. If it raises, the NAS
mount is down or a generation set was deleted (it never should be).
The artifact and what you should see
The artifact is RUNBOOK.md, backed by the executable evalops helper and a worked demo. Running demo.py, you should see one generation event (the expensive step, run once, producing an immutable generations.jsonl with a recorded SHA-256) followed by two scoring events over that same file. The first scoring uses a buggy set-verifier that is space-sensitive and marks the correct answer "1,3" wrong; the second uses the audited Chapter 3.9 verifier and marks it right. The accuracy moves between the two scorings, and (this is the whole point) both MLflow score runs are tagged with the identical generation_sha256, so the improvement is provably attributable to the verifier fix and not to a fresh, different draw of generations, because the model was never re-run. Each accuracy prints with its bootstrap confidence interval, never bare. Finally promote moves the generations to the NAS and rewrites the manifest, leaving the metrics hot on NVMe, and resolve still finds the generations by hash. What you have built is the operating discipline that makes the whole loop cheap to iterate and impossible to confound: generate once, score forever, log everything with its uncertainty, keep the fast disk fast, and never throw away the expensive thing. Wall-clock and disk figures for a full-suite run are (measured on the baseline machine -- record value, date, driver).
[RLHF] and the loop's later parts assume you can cheaply re-score old generations against a new reward function, which is exactly the capability this chapter's discipline provides. When Part VII turns eval scorers into training rewards, "re-score, don't regenerate" is what lets you audit a reward change against a fixed set of policy samples without paying to sample again. Read this runbook as the operational precondition for treating evals as rewards: the two only compose cheaply if generation and scoring are already separated and content-addressed.
The most expensive habit in model evaluation is re-running the model every time you change how you score it. Generation costs GPU-hours and is only approximately reproducible; scoring costs milliseconds and is exact. Fuse them and every rubric tweak, verifier fix, or judge swap costs you a fresh (and subtly different) set of generations, which also quietly ruins your before/after comparison. Separate them, hash the generations, and the discipline pays off forever: you generate once, score a hundred ways, and every metric is provably taken on the same responses because they all cite the same content hash. Keep the raw model output like it is gold, because compared to the electricity that made it, it is. Never re-generate what you can re-score.
The ladder of causation
Goal. Distinguish seeing, doing, and imagining, and place the claims I make about models on the right rung, so that an eval table and a thesis sentence stop being confused for the same kind of statement.
Covers. Seeing versus doing versus imagining; why an eval table is a rung-one object and a thesis claim is a rung-two object; observational versus interventional questions as they actually show up in ML practice.
Theory
Three kinds of question hiding in one sentence
Here is a sentence I have written into a results table without thinking twice: "the trained model scores 0.61 on the held-out reasoning split, up from 0.52." It reads like one fact. It is actually two very different kinds of claim wearing the same clothes, and the whole of Part IV exists because I kept letting the second one sneak in on the credibility of the first.
The number 0.61 is a thing I saw. I ran the eval, the scorer returned a mean, and 0.61 is a faithful summary of what came back. Nobody can argue with it except by re-running the eval. The phrase "up from 0.52" is also a thing I saw, a second observation. But the word I keep wanting to attach, "improved," is not something I saw at all. "The training improved the model" is a claim about what the model's score would have been had I not trained it, compared against what it was after I did. One of those two worlds is counterfactual. I only ever get to observe one of them per model, and turning a pair of observed numbers into a claim about the effect of an intervention is a leap the numbers alone do not license.
Judea Pearl organizes exactly this leap into a three-rung ladder, and Ness builds the whole of [CAI] on it. The rungs are seeing, doing, and imagining, and each rung asks a strictly harder question than the one below.
The three rungs
Rung one is association: seeing. The questions here are about what I observe and how observations move together. "What is the model's accuracy on this split?" "Do longer responses tend to score higher?" "Is judge A's mean rating correlated with response verbosity?" These are questions about the joint distribution of things I can record, and I answer them with counting, averaging, and correlation. Formally, rung one lives entirely inside , the probability of observing outcome given that I observe feature . Every cell of every eval table I will ever produce is a rung-one object. It is an estimate of a conditional probability or an expectation under the distribution my pipeline happened to sample from.
Rung two is intervention: doing. Now the question changes shape. "What happens to the score if I train the model?" "What happens to the judge's rating if I make the response shorter, holding its actual quality fixed?" The operative object is not but , the distribution of when I reach in and set myself rather than merely observing whichever nature handed me. The operator is the notational heart of the whole subject: means "set to by intervention, severing whatever normally determines ." The reason and can differ, sometimes wildly, is the entire content of chapters 4.3 and 4.4. For now the point is only that they are different questions, and no amount of rung-one data answers a rung-two question on its own. You need an assumption about the mechanism, which is what a causal model supplies.
Rung three is counterfactual: imagining. Here the question is about a specific unit in a world that did not happen. "This particular training run got the model to 0.61. Would this same run, on this same seed, have gotten there anyway without the reward signal, on nothing but KL-regularized drift?" That is a claim about the very run I observed, under a change to one of its inputs, holding everything else about that run fixed. Counterfactuals are the strongest and the most treacherous, because the world you are comparing against is by construction unobservable. The formal object is something like : the probability that the outcome would have been under treatment , given that I actually observed treatment and outcome . Most of my honest thesis claims will try to live on rung two and stay off rung three, because rung two is hard enough and rung three needs assumptions I usually cannot defend on one GPU.
Ness introduces the ladder in [CAI] chapter 1 and formalizes association versus intervention in chapter 2. Read chapter 1 for the intuition and the historical framing (Pearl's ladder, the do-operator as the thing statistics left out), and chapter 2 for the first careful statement of why and come apart. Everything I do in the rest of Part IV is machinery for climbing from rung one to rung two without lying about it.
Why an eval table is rung one and a thesis claim is rung two
I want to nail this down because it is the load-bearing idea of the part. An eval table is a rung-one artifact by construction. It is a set of estimated expectations, , computed over whatever prompts, decoding settings, and judge my harness happened to run. It answers "what did I see when I ran this model under these conditions." That is genuinely valuable and genuinely limited. It does not, and cannot, tell me what would have happened under conditions I did not run.
A thesis claim is almost always a rung-two object dressed as a rung-one summary. "GRPO training improved the model's reasoning" is versus . "Quantization to 4-bit hurt reasoning" is versus . "The judge is biased toward verbosity" is with true quality held fixed. Every one of these is a doing question. Every one of them is the kind of sentence a committee will actually challenge. And every one of them is, on its face, unsupported by the eval table alone, because the table is a stack of seeing.
The gap between the two rungs is not pedantry. It is the exact place where I can fool myself. If the model I trained also happened to be served at a different temperature, or evaluated on a slightly different prompt template, or scored by a judge that shifted between the two runs, then the observed jump from 0.52 to 0.61 is a rung-one fact contaminated by everything that changed alongside the training. Reading it as "training caused the jump" is a rung-confusion error, and it is the single most common way eval results mislead. The fix is not more decimal places. It is a causal model that says which of the things that changed are allowed to affect the score, so I can decide whether the comparison identifies the effect I care about.
The most seductive rung-confusion in this whole book is treating the reasoning delta of chapter 7.6 (post-training score minus pre-training score) as the causal effect of training. It is not. It is an observed difference between two rung-one measurements. It equals the causal effect only if nothing else that moves the score changed between the two measurements, which is a claim I have to argue, not assume. Chapter 7.6 computes the delta; chapters 4.5 and the audit in 4.6 are what earn the right to call it an effect.
Observational versus interventional, in ML terms
The clean way to tell which rung a question sits on is to ask: does answering it require me to have controlled something, or only to have recorded it? Observational questions ("do high-verbosity responses get higher judge scores in my logged data?") need only records. Interventional questions ("if I forced responses to be more verbose, would scores rise?") need control, either a real experiment where I set verbosity, or a causal model plus an identification argument that lets me borrow the interventional answer from observational data.
Machine learning practice is soaked in interventional questions answered with observational data, usually without saying so. Ablations are the honest cases: an ablation is a deliberate , where I set one component on or off and hold the rest fixed, which is exactly why ablations are the closest thing to a real experiment in the ML toolkit and why chapter 7.7 leans on them so hard. Leaderboard comparisons are the dishonest cases: two models trained by two teams on two data mixes with two eval harnesses, compared as if the only difference were the thing the leaderboard names. That comparison reads as versus but is estimated from wildly non-comparable observations. Recognizing which of those two situations I am in, every single time, is the skill this part is trying to build.
Why data alone cannot climb the ladder
It is worth being blunt about the impossibility at the center of all this, because it is the reason the rest of Part IV is not optional. No amount of rung-one data, however large, however clean, answers a rung-two question by itself. This is not a practical limitation I could fix with a bigger eval budget; it is a logical one. Two completely different causal worlds can produce identical observational distributions, and if they produce the same then no function of the data can distinguish them, yet they can disagree about . The textbook example is a variable that both raises treatment and raises the outcome on its own: the observed correlation between treatment and outcome is the same whether the treatment works, does nothing, or actively hurts, depending on how strong the hidden common cause is. The data is silent on which world I am in. What breaks the tie is an assumption about the mechanism, and a causal model is just a disciplined way of writing that assumption down so it can be argued with.
This is why I keep insisting that a thesis claim smuggles in structure the eval table does not contain. When I say "training improved the model," I am not reporting the table; I am asserting a causal model in which the training is the thing that moved the score and the confounders did not, and then reading the effect off that model using the table as input. The honest version of the sentence always has two parts: here is what I observed (rung one, the table), and here is the causal model under which that observation identifies the effect I claim (rung two, the assumption). Part IV is the machinery for writing the second part explicitly, checking whether it is even the kind of model under which the effect can be recovered, and stress-testing it when it is. The eval table is necessary and never sufficient, and the gap between necessary and sufficient is exactly one causal model wide.
The cost of getting the rung wrong
There is an asymmetry in the failure modes that is worth internalizing. Under-claiming (reporting a rung-two result as if it were only rung one, "the score was 0.61," and refusing to say why) is safe but useless: it wastes a real finding and tells a committee nothing about whether the method works. Over-claiming (reporting a rung-one observation as if it were rung two, "training caused the improvement," with no model behind it) is the dangerous direction, because it is persuasive and wrong in a way that survives casual review and collapses under a hostile one. The committee reader whose job is to find the skipped step will find it exactly here, at the unearned causal verb, and everything downstream of that verb becomes suspect. So the discipline is not to avoid causal claims; the loop of this book is a causal machine and its whole point is causal claims. The discipline is to make every causal claim carry its model in the open, so that the reader can attack the model rather than discovering, late and annoyed, that there was never a model at all.
Tooling
There is no library for this chapter. The tool is a habit, and the habit is a two-column reading of every claim I write: what did I see, and what am I asserting about doing. So the tooling here is a small, explicit rubric I can apply mechanically to any sentence, and then encode as a classifier I run over real model-card claims in the lab.
The rubric has three tests, applied in order.
First, the verb test. Does the claim contain a causal verb (improve, hurt, cause, enable, degrade, boost, break) or a causal preposition (because, due to, thanks to)? If yes, it is reaching for at least rung two. A pure rung-one claim uses only descriptive verbs: scores, achieves, measures, correlates.
Second, the counterfactual test. Can I restate the claim as "compared to what would have happened otherwise"? If the restatement is natural and the "otherwise" world is not something I observed, the claim is rung two (or three). "0.61 on the split" has no natural otherwise; it is rung one. "Improved to 0.61" implies an otherwise (the untrained score) and is rung two.
Third, the unit test. Is the claim about a population or distribution (rung two) or about one specific realized unit under a change (rung three)? "Training improves models like this one on average" is rung two. "This run would have failed without the reward" is rung three, because it is about that run.
I will encode this as three boolean features per claim and a small rule that maps them to a rung. It is deliberately crude. The value is not a perfect classifier; the value is that running the rubric forces me to read each claim as a causal statement and notice when a published card is quietly standing on rung two while showing me rung-one evidence.
Lab
The lab classifies ten model-card-flavored claims, assigns each a rung with the rubric above, and writes an annotated table to disk. The claims are paraphrased archetypes, not quotations, so the artifact is self-contained and reproducible without scraping anyone's card. No GPU is involved; this runs anywhere uv runs.
# file: labs/p4-01-ladder/classify_claims.py
# /// script
# requires-python = ">=3.11"
# dependencies = ["pandas>=2.2"]
# ///
"""Classify model-card claims by rung of the ladder of causation.
Rung 1 = association (seeing): a summary of observed data.
Rung 2 = intervention (doing): a claim about P(y | do(x)) over a population.
Rung 3 = counterfactual (imagining): a claim about a specific realized unit
under a change to one of its inputs.
The classifier is intentionally a transparent rule over three boolean tests,
not an ML model. The point is to make the reading of each claim auditable.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import re
from dataclasses import dataclass, asdict
from pathlib import Path
import pandas as pd
CAUSAL_VERBS = r"(improv|hurt|caus|enabl|degrad|boost|break|unlock|regress|damag|help)"
CAUSAL_PREPS = r"(because|due to|thanks to|as a result of|leads to|drives)"
# words that signal a claim about one specific realized run/unit
UNIT_MARKERS = r"(this run|this checkpoint|this seed|would have|had we not|without the)"
@dataclass
class Claim:
text: str
source_kind: str # e.g. "capability card", "quant report", "judge study"
def verb_test(t: str) -> bool:
return bool(re.search(CAUSAL_VERBS, t, re.I) or re.search(CAUSAL_PREPS, t, re.I))
def counterfactual_test(t: str) -> bool:
# a natural "compared to otherwise" reading: comparative language paired
# with a causal verb over an unobserved alternative condition
comparative = re.search(r"(up from|compared to|versus|vs\.?|better than|worse than|relative to)", t, re.I)
return bool(comparative and verb_test(t))
def unit_test(t: str) -> bool:
return bool(re.search(UNIT_MARKERS, t, re.I))
def classify(t: str) -> tuple[int, str]:
v, c, u = verb_test(t), counterfactual_test(t), unit_test(t)
# NOTE: c (counterfactual_test) is a diagnostic feature, not a decision
# input. It is defined as (comparative AND verb_test), so it can never flip
# a rung that v has not already set; the rung is decided by u and v alone.
# I report it to flag "compared-to-otherwise" phrasing, not to classify.
if u:
return 3, "counterfactual: 'would have'/'this run'/'without the' names a specific unhappened world"
if v or c:
return 2, "interventional: causal verb/preposition implies a do() question"
return 1, "associational: descriptive summary of observed data"
CLAIMS = [
Claim("The model scores 0.61 on the held-out reasoning split.", "capability card"),
Claim("Post-training accuracy improved to 0.61, up from 0.52 before RL.", "capability card"),
Claim("4-bit quantization degraded chain-of-thought accuracy by 3 points.", "quant report"),
Claim("Longer responses are positively correlated with judge scores.", "judge study"),
Claim("The instruction-tuned variant outperforms the base model because of preference data.", "capability card"),
Claim("On MATH the model achieves 0.44 pass@1 at temperature 0.7.", "capability card"),
Claim("Our GRPO recipe improves reasoning over the SFT-only baseline.", "method report"),
Claim("Without the verifiable reward, this run would have plateaued at the SFT level.", "method report"),
Claim("The judge assigns higher ratings than a blind human panel on the same items.", "judge study"),
Claim("Enabling the scratchpad prompt boosts GSM8K relative to no scratchpad.", "method report"),
]
def main() -> None:
out_dir = Path("labs/p4-01-ladder")
out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
rows = []
for c in CLAIMS:
rung, why = classify(c.text)
rows.append({**asdict(c), "rung": rung, "rationale": why,
"verb_test": verb_test(c.text),
"counterfactual_test": counterfactual_test(c.text),
"unit_test": unit_test(c.text)})
art = out_dir / "claim_rungs.json"
art.write_text(json.dumps(rows, indent=2))
df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
for _, r in df.iterrows():
print(f"[rung {r['rung']}] {r['text']}")
print("\nrung counts:", df["rung"].value_counts().sort_index().to_dict())
print(f"artifact written: {art.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it with uv, which resolves pandas into a throwaway pinned environment (pandas is here only to keep the artifact shape consistent with later chapters that read this JSON back into a DataFrame; the classifier itself is pure standard library):
uv run labs/p4-01-ladder/classify_claims.py
The artifact is labs/p4-01-ladder/claim_rungs.json: ten claims, each stamped with its three boolean test results, the assigned rung, and a one-line rationale. That file is the durable object. It is also the seed of a habit. From here on, whenever I paste a sentence into the thesis, I can run it through the same rubric and see immediately whether I am about to stand on rung two while pointing at rung-one evidence.
What you should see. Ten lines to stdout, one per claim, each tagged with a rung, then a count line reading {1: 4, 2: 5, 3: 1}. Four claims land at rung 1: the two pure measurements (the 0.61 split score and the MATH pass@1 line) and, more instructively, the two comparative-but-verbless claims (longer responses are "correlated" with scores, the judge "assigns higher ratings than" a panel), which describe observed differences without any causal verb and so stay associational. Five land at rung 2, the ones carrying an explicit causal verb or preposition (improved to 0.61, degraded by 3 points, outperforms because of preference data, improves over baseline, boosts GSM8K), because a causal verb sits on top of a comparison to an unobserved alternative. One lands at rung 3: "without the verifiable reward, this run would have plateaued," which names a specific realized run and a world where one of its inputs was changed. The exact split matters less than the reflex: every causal verb in a results section is a promissory note that the rest of Part IV has to pay off. The two verbless comparatives are the ones worth staring at, because they read as causal to a hurried reader but the verb_test field is false, which is the classifier telling you the causal reading was in your head, not on the page.
Every results table in machine learning is a photograph, and every abstract quietly captions it as a movie. The photograph says "the model scored 0.61." The caption says "training made it better." Those are not the same claim, and Judea Pearl's ladder of causation tells you exactly why: the table lives on rung one (seeing), and the word "better" lives on rung two (doing), the rung where you have to reason about what would have happened otherwise. This post is a 900-word field guide to spotting the jump in your own writing, a three-question rubric (is there a causal verb, is there an unobserved "otherwise," is it about one specific run) that tells you which rung a sentence is standing on, run over ten real-flavored model-card claims. The punchline is that the gap between rungs is not pedantry. It is the exact seam where an eval result turns into a lie you did not mean to tell.
DAGs and d-separation
Goal. Learn to draw a benchmark pipeline as a directed acyclic graph and read off, mechanically, every conditional independence the graph implies, so that later chapters can argue about confounding on a picture instead of on vibes.
Covers. Causal graphical models; paths, chains, forks, and colliders; d-separation and the conditional independences it licenses; the Markov factorization that connects a graph to a probability distribution.
Theory
A graph is a compressed set of assumptions
A causal DAG is the cheapest honest way I know to write down what I believe about a system. Each node is a variable I could in principle measure (the model under test, the prompt template, the response length, the judge, the score). Each directed edge is a claim that is a direct cause of , meaning that if I could hold everything else fixed and wiggle , then would tend to move. The absence of an edge is the stronger claim: it asserts there is no direct causal path, and it is the missing edges, not the present ones, that do the real work, because they are what let me deduce that certain things must be independent.
"Directed" means every edge has an arrowhead: causation points one way. "Acyclic" means you cannot follow arrows and return to where you started: no variable is its own ancestor. That rules out feedback within a single graph, which sounds restrictive until you notice that the loop of this whole book (serve, evaluate, score, train) is unrolled in time. The model at iteration is a different node from the model at iteration , so the cycle in Figure 0.1 becomes a perfectly legal DAG once I stop collapsing time onto itself. I will lean on that trick constantly.
The three atoms: chain, fork, collider
Every path through a DAG, however long, is built from three local structures, and the entire theory of when information flows is just the behavior of these three atoms. Get them right and d-separation is bookkeeping.
A chain is : causes causes . Here is a mediator. Information flows from to along the chain, so and are marginally dependent. But if I condition on , I block the flow: once I know , learning tells me nothing more about . Conditioning on a mediator closes the path.
A fork is : a common cause drives both and . This is confounding in its purest form. and are marginally dependent (they share a cause, so they move together) even though neither causes the other. Conditioning on blocks the path: within a stratum of fixed , and are independent. Conditioning on a common cause closes the path.
A collider is : two causes collide at a common effect . This one is the trap, because it behaves backwards. and are marginally independent (they have no shared cause and neither causes the other), so the path is closed by default. But conditioning on the collider , or on any descendant of , opens the path and makes and dependent. This is selection bias and collider bias, and it is the single most counterintuitive fact in the subject: controlling for the wrong variable can manufacture an association that was not there. Chapter 4.3 is largely about the ways eval pipelines condition on colliders without realizing it (filtering runs by "completed successfully" is the canonical case).
The reflex from regression is "control for more stuff, get a cleaner estimate." Colliders break that reflex. Conditioning on a mediator or a common cause removes bias; conditioning on a collider or its descendant creates it. There is no way to know which is which from the data alone. You need the graph. This is precisely why I refuse to pick an adjustment set by throwing every available covariate into a regression, and it is the reason the backdoor criterion in chapter 4.4 exists.
d-separation, stated as a rule
d-separation ("directional separation") is the algorithm that turns the three atoms into a global verdict: given the graph, which variables are guaranteed independent given which others. The definition is built on the idea of a blocked path.
Take two nodes and and a (possibly empty) conditioning set of other nodes. Consider any undirected path between and (a sequence of edges, ignoring arrow direction, that connects them). Walk along and inspect each intermediate node where two consecutive edges meet. The path is blocked by if at least one of these holds:
- is a chain () or a fork () on , and . (Conditioning on a mediator or common cause closes the path.)
- is a collider () on , and neither nor any descendant of is in . (A collider is closed unless you condition on it or its descendant.)
If every path between and is blocked by , then and are d-separated given , written
If even one path is left unblocked (a path is unblocked, or "open," exactly when it is not blocked, i.e. every non-collider on it is outside and every collider on it is in or has a descendant in ), then and are d-connected given .
The payoff is the theorem that makes graphs useful: d-separation in the graph implies conditional independence in every distribution the graph is compatible with,
The converse holds for almost all distributions compatible with the graph (the "faithful" ones), which is why I can read testable independence claims straight off a drawing.
The reason (2.2) is not circular is the Markov condition, which is the bridge from a graph to a probability distribution. It says a distribution is Markov relative to a DAG when every variable is independent of its non-descendants given its parents. That local statement has a global consequence, and the global consequence is the factorization I actually compute with.
Let be a DAG over variables with the parents of in . The Markov condition (each node independent of its non-descendants given its parents) is equivalent to the statement that the joint distribution factorizes along the graph:
Sketch of why. Take any topological order of (possible because is acyclic), so that every parent precedes its child. The chain rule of probability, which holds for any distribution, gives
Under a topological order, contains all of 's parents and none of its descendants, so it is a set of non-descendants that includes . The Markov condition says is independent of those non-descendants once I condition on its parents, so each factor collapses:
Substituting (2.5) into (2.4) gives (2.3). d-separation is then provably the complete graphical criterion for the conditional independences entailed by (2.3): any independence that (2.1) declares is forced by the factorization, and no others are forced in general.
Equation (2.3) is why a DAG is a modeling win and not just a diagram. A joint over binary variables has free parameters; the factorized form needs only , which for a sparse graph is dramatically smaller. The missing edges buy me both statistical power and testable predictions. Every independence I can enumerate from the graph is a claim I can, in principle, falsify against logged data, which is exactly what makes chapter 4.3's reanalysis of the judge data a real check and not a rationalization.
Backdoor paths, foreshadowed
One piece of vocabulary from the factorization is worth naming now because chapter 4.4 will build its whole identification argument on it: the backdoor path. When I ask about the effect of some treatment on an outcome , the paths between them split into two kinds. Directed paths that leave through an outgoing arrow () are the causal paths, the ones I want to measure. Paths that enter through an incoming arrow () are backdoor paths, and they are non-causal by construction, because they connect to through 's own causes rather than its effects. Confounding is exactly an open backdoor path. The fork is the simplest backdoor path there is, and d-separation tells me it is open when is unconditioned and blocked when is conditioned on. So the entire program of adjusting for confounders is, in graph language, "find a conditioning set that blocks every backdoor path without opening a collider," which is a d-separation problem and nothing more. I mention it here so that when the backdoor criterion arrives in chapter 4.4 it reads as an application of the rules I already have, not a new idea.
An honest word about faithfulness
The theorem in (2.2) runs one direction cleanly: d-separation in the graph forces conditional independence in the distribution. The converse, reading structure off observed independences, needs an extra assumption called faithfulness, which says the distribution has no independences except the ones the graph forces. Faithfulness can fail when two causal paths cancel exactly: imagine a direct positive effect and an indirect negative effect of equal magnitude, so that and look marginally independent even though the graph connects them. Such exact cancellations are measure-zero in a sense (a knife-edge tuning of the parameters), which is why faithfulness is usually a safe default, but "usually safe" is not "always true," and in a trained system where an optimizer might drive parameters toward exactly such a balance I keep it in mind. The practical upshot is modest: I trust the forward direction of (2.2) completely and treat the reverse direction, inferring absent edges from observed independences, as evidence rather than proof. When chapter 4.3 tests a graph-implied independence against the judge data and it holds, that is a passed check, not a certificate; when it fails, that is a genuine refutation, because the forward direction has no escape hatch. Falsification is sharp here even when confirmation is soft, which is the usual and healthy state of an empirical science.
Ness devotes [CAI] Part 2 to graphical models: the Markov condition, the factorization (2.3), and d-separation with worked examples. Read it alongside this chapter. Where I give the rule as a two-clause test, Ness walks the intuition for each of the three atoms and shows the collider case slowly, which is the one worth slowing down for. Part 2 is also where the language of "backdoor path" first appears, which I pick up and formalize in chapter 4.4.
Tooling
I could enumerate d-separations by hand for a five-node graph, but I make sign errors on colliders, so I let a library do the bookkeeping and I check its verdicts against my intuition. The tool is networkx, which represents a DAG as a DiGraph and ships an exact d-separation routine. In recent versions the function is nx.is_d_separator(G, x, y, z) for a single query and nx.d_separated is the older name; I use the current one and pin the version so the lab is reproducible.
The mental model for the tool is a two-step loop. First I encode my assumptions as edges, which is the honest and hard part, because the graph is where my beliefs become explicit and falsifiable. Second, I ask the library to enumerate, for every pair of non-adjacent nodes, the smallest conditioning sets that d-separate them. Each verdict it returns is a conditional independence I have committed to, and therefore a prediction I can test against real logs. If a predicted independence fails in the data, my graph is wrong, and that is the graph earning its keep.
One subtlety worth flagging: networkx answers d-separation queries but does not, on its own, decide which independences are the "interesting" ones. There are exponentially many conditioning sets, so I restrict attention to the marginal case () and the single-node conditioning case, which together surface the chains, forks, and colliders that matter for reading a pipeline. That is enough to make the structure legible without drowning in subsets.
Lab
I encode a realistic benchmark-scoring pipeline as a DAG, draw it in mermaid, then have networkx enumerate the implied independencies and write them to disk. The pipeline is the middle of the book's loop: a model produces a response to a prompt, the response has properties (length), and a judge maps the response to a score. Difficulty of the item is a common cause of both correctness and length. This is small enough to reason about and rich enough to contain a fork, a chain, and a collider.
Here is the graph as I believe it, drawn first so the code has something to match.
flowchart TD
D[Item difficulty] --> C[Response correctness]
D --> L[Response length]
M[Model under test] --> C
M --> L
C --> S[Judge score]
L --> S
J[Judge identity] --> S
Read it as a set of assumptions. Difficulty and model both cause correctness and length (harder items and weaker models both lower correctness and, empirically, change length). The judge score is caused by the true correctness , by the length (the verbosity bias I want to catch), and by which judge ran. Crucially, is a collider on the path , which is going to matter enormously in chapter 4.3.
# file: labs/p4-02-dags/enumerate_independencies.py
# /// script
# requires-python = ">=3.11"
# dependencies = ["networkx>=3.3"]
# ///
"""Encode the benchmark-scoring pipeline as a DAG and enumerate the
conditional independencies it implies, via d-separation.
Nodes:
D = item difficulty M = model under test
C = response correctness L = response length
J = judge identity S = judge score
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import itertools
from pathlib import Path
import networkx as nx
def build_graph() -> nx.DiGraph:
g = nx.DiGraph()
g.add_edges_from([
("D", "C"), ("D", "L"),
("M", "C"), ("M", "L"),
("C", "S"), ("L", "S"), ("J", "S"),
])
assert nx.is_directed_acyclic_graph(g), "graph must be a DAG"
return g
def dsep(g: nx.DiGraph, x: str, y: str, z: set[str]) -> bool:
# networkx>=3.3 exposes is_d_separator; fall back to d_separated if older
try:
return nx.is_d_separator(g, {x}, {y}, set(z))
except AttributeError: # pragma: no cover
return nx.d_separated(g, {x}, {y}, set(z))
def enumerate_cis(g: nx.DiGraph):
nodes = list(g.nodes)
findings = []
for x, y in itertools.combinations(nodes, 2):
if g.has_edge(x, y) or g.has_edge(y, x):
continue # adjacent nodes are never d-separated
others = [n for n in nodes if n not in (x, y)]
# marginal independence
if dsep(g, x, y, set()):
findings.append({"x": x, "y": y, "given": [], "kind": "marginal"})
# single-node conditioning: report the smallest sets that separate,
# and flag when conditioning OPENS a path (collider signature)
for z in others:
sep_marg = dsep(g, x, y, set())
sep_cond = dsep(g, x, y, {z})
if sep_cond and not sep_marg:
findings.append({"x": x, "y": y, "given": [z],
"kind": "closed-by-conditioning"})
if sep_marg and not sep_cond:
findings.append({"x": x, "y": y, "given": [z],
"kind": "OPENED-by-conditioning (collider!)"})
return findings
def main() -> None:
g = build_graph()
findings = enumerate_cis(g)
out_dir = Path("labs/p4-02-dags")
out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
art = out_dir / "implied_independencies.json"
art.write_text(json.dumps(findings, indent=2))
for f in findings:
given = "{}" if not f["given"] else "{" + ",".join(f["given"]) + "}"
print(f"{f['x']} _||_ {f['y']} | {given:8s} [{f['kind']}]")
print(f"\n{len(findings)} findings; artifact: {art.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run labs/p4-02-dags/enumerate_independencies.py
The artifact is labs/p4-02-dags/implied_independencies.json, a list of the conditional independencies the graph commits me to, each tagged by kind. The entries that matter most are the marginal independencies and the dependencies that appear only after I condition on a collider (the collider opening): a pair that is independent in the full population but becomes correlated the moment I stratify on their common effect. Those OPENED-by-conditioning lines are the whole moral of the chapter rendered as data. (The enumerator conditions on one node at a time, so it surfaces these collider-openings directly; closing the fork between and is a different move, because that pair has two common causes, and , and only conditioning on both together separates them.)
What you should see. A handful of independence lines, and among them two that should make you sit up. First, M _||_ D | {}: the model under test and item difficulty are marginally independent, which is correct, because I chose the model and the dataset chose the difficulty, and nothing connects them upstream. Second, and this is the one to stare at, a line flagging that and become d-connected when you condition on the judge score , tagged OPENED-by-conditioning (collider!). That is the collider firing: score is a common effect of correctness and length, and the model and the difficulty each sit upstream of correctness and length, so conditioning on the score opens the path and manufactures a correlation between model and difficulty that does not exist in the full population. Slicing your analysis by score (say, looking only at high-scoring responses) is exactly that conditioning. If you see that line, the tool has just reproduced, on your own graph, the exact kind of selection bias that chapter 4.3 will find lurking in the judge-calibration data. If you do not see it, check that your edges match the mermaid diagram; a missing edge will silently delete the collider and hide the whole phenomenon.
"Control for more variables" is the most dangerous good advice in data analysis. Sometimes adding a control cleans your estimate; sometimes it invents a correlation out of thin air. The difference is a piece of graph structure called a collider, and once you can spot one you cannot unsee them: filtering to "successful runs," analyzing only "high-scoring" responses, comparing models "among the ones that finished," each of these silently conditions on a common effect and can flip the sign of what you find. This post teaches the three atoms of causal graphs (chain, fork, collider) with one running example, a benchmark-scoring pipeline, and shows a five-line program that reads every implied independence off the diagram and flags exactly where conditioning helps and where it hurts. You leave able to draw your own pipeline and know, before you touch the data, which "controls" are cleaning and which are contaminating.
Confounding, colliders, and selection in eval pipelines
Goal. Take the three graph atoms from chapter 4.2 and use them to name, precisely, the ways an eval pipeline lies: confounding, mediation dressed as confounding, survivorship, and collider bias from filtering. Then reanalyze the judge-calibration data from chapter 3.6 through an explicit DAG.
Covers. Judge identity as a confounder of model comparisons; verbosity as a mediator and position as a nuisance channel made non-ignorable by non-random assignment; leaderboard survivorship; collider bias when filtering runs by "completed successfully."
Theory
The same picture, now with eval variables on it
Chapter 4.2 gave me chain, fork, and collider in the abstract. The whole value of Part IV is that eval pipelines are dense with all three, usually unlabeled, and the bias each one produces has a different fix. If I mislabel which structure I am looking at, I apply the wrong correction and make things worse. So this chapter is a taxonomy: for each bias, the graph that generates it, the direction it pushes my estimate, and the mitigation that actually removes it.
The outcome I care about throughout is a model comparison. I want the causal effect of swapping model for model on some score . Everything that corrupts that comparison does so by opening a non-causal path between "which model" and "the score," or by closing a path I needed open. Let me take the four big offenders one at a time.
Judge identity is a confounder (a fork)
Suppose I evaluate model with judge on Monday and model with judge on Tuesday, because I upgraded the judge in between. Now which-model and which-judge are entangled. If is a more generous grader, model looks better whether or not it is better. The graph is a fork: some scheduling variable, or just my own inconsistency, is a common cause of both the model I evaluated and the judge that scored it, and both feed the score.
Strictly, the confounder is that common cause, the schedule or my own inconsistency, not the judge itself; the judge sits on the backdoor path , and freezing the judge to one revision blocks that path by making the contribution identical across models. More commonly the entanglement runs through the judge's own behavior: I use a single judge but its behavior drifts, or I use its own family of models to grade its own family, injecting self-preference. In every version the fix is the same as any fork: block the backdoor by holding the shared cause fixed. Use one frozen judge, pinned to a revision and a decoding seed, across every model in the comparison, so that the judge cannot vary with the model. When I cannot freeze it (an API judge that silently updates), the confounder is unmeasured and I am in the territory of chapter 4.5's sensitivity analysis. Judge identity is the confounder I worry about most because it is the easiest to introduce by accident and the hardest to detect after the fact.
Verbosity and position: mediator or nuisance channel, and it matters
Response length is the variable that trips everyone, because whether it is a confounder or a mediator depends entirely on the causal question, and the two roles demand opposite handling.
Case one: I ask whether model genuinely reasons better than model . Model influences length, length influences the judge's score (verbosity bias), and model also influences true quality, which influences score. Here length is a mediator of one of the paths from model to score:
If my question is "is actually better," the length path is a nuisance channel: might score higher purely because it rambles more, not because it reasons better. I might want to block it (condition on length) to isolate the quality path. But if my question is "does produce higher-rated outputs in deployment, by whatever means," then length is part of the effect and I must not block it, because conditioning on a mediator throws away a real part of the causal effect I asked about. Same variable, opposite treatment, and the graph plus the question is the only thing that tells them apart.
Case two: position bias in pairwise judging. Presentation order is a nuisance cause of the score in its own right (a judge favors whichever answer it reads first), and on its own it confounds nothing, because a randomized order is independent of which model I am testing. What makes it dangerous is non-random assignment. When a judge scores versus and I always present first, order is fixed by which model I labeled "first," so the structure is : a spurious channel that leaks position bias into the comparison as if it were quality. The fix is not conditioning; it is randomization. Swap positions across items so that order is independent of model, which severs the edge by design and kills the leak. Position bias is a nuisance channel you defeat with a coin flip, verbosity is a mediator you defeat (or preserve) with a decision about your estimand, and calling them both "judge bias" and reaching for the same fix is how people get it wrong.
Leaderboard survivorship (selection on a descendant)
Public leaderboards show me the models that were submitted, and models get submitted when they clear some internal bar. That bar is a selection variable, and selecting on it distorts the comparison. If teams only publish models that beat their previous best on the benchmark, the leaderboard is conditioned on "looked good on this benchmark," which is a descendant of both true quality and benchmark-specific luck. Conditioning on it opens a collider path between quality and luck, so the visible models are the ones that got lucky on this benchmark given their quality. The measured gaps are inflated by survivorship, and the effect is strongest exactly where it hurts, at the top of the board where the selection is most aggressive.
The mitigation is discipline about the sampling frame. My own comparisons must include every run I launched, not just the ones I liked, which is why chapter 7.7's run matrix is pre-registered and every seed is reported whether or not it "worked." Survivorship is the reason a pre-registered denominator is worth more than a impressive-looking numerator.
Collider bias from "completed successfully" (the one that bites)
This is the bias I most want burned into my reflexes, because it looks like good hygiene and is poison. When I aggregate an eval, it is natural to drop runs that crashed, timed out, or failed to parse, and analyze only the ones that "completed successfully." Completion is a common effect of many things: the model's competence, the item's difficulty, the length of the generation, the flakiness of the sandbox. It is a collider. Filtering to completed runs conditions on that collider, and per chapter 4.2 that opens spurious paths among all of completion's causes.
Concretely, suppose competent responses and short responses are both more likely to complete (long generations time out; incompetent ones loop). Among completed runs only, competence and shortness become negatively correlated even if they are independent in the full population, because a long completed run has to be competent to have survived. Now if my score rewards shortness at all, I read off a spurious competence-shortness relationship that is entirely an artifact of the filter. The fix is to make completion a measured outcome, not a filter: report the completion rate as its own number, and either analyze all launched runs (scoring failures as failures) or model the selection explicitly. Silently dropping failures is conditioning on a collider, full stop.
The line df = df[df.status == "ok"] is not data cleaning. It is conditioning on a variable, and if that variable is a common effect of things you care about, you have just opened a collider path and biased everything downstream. Before you filter any eval log, ask: is the thing I am filtering on caused by two or more variables in my analysis? If yes, filtering can manufacture correlations. The honest move is almost always to keep the rows and score the failures, not to delete them.
The direction of bias, not just its presence
Naming a bias is half the job; knowing which way it pushes is the other half, because a committee will ask "and does that make your effect look bigger or smaller than it is?" and "I do not know" is not an answer. The graph often tells me the sign for free. A confounder that raises both treatment and outcome (a generous judge routed preferentially to the model I favor) biases the comparison in favor of that model, so my measured advantage is inflated and the true effect is smaller than reported. A mediator I fail to block leaves part of the effect in, so blocking it can only shrink the estimate toward the direct-path effect; whether that is the number I want depends on my estimand. Collider bias is the treacherous one because its sign depends on the signs of the two edges into the collider: if both causes push completion up, conditioning on completion induces a negative correlation between them, and if they push in opposite directions it induces a positive one. So I cannot state the direction of collider bias without stating the mechanism, which is one more reason to draw the graph with signed intentions in mind even when the formal DAG carries no signs. Reporting a bias with its direction turns "my estimate might be wrong" into "my estimate is an upper bound on the true effect," and the second sentence is one a committee can actually work with.
A single question to ask of any filter or control
All four biases collapse into one operational question I can ask of every filter and every covariate before I touch the data: for this variable, is it a cause of the treatment, a cause only of the outcome, a common cause of both, or a common effect of both? A cause of treatment alone is usually harmless to leave alone. A common cause is a confounder I must adjust for or hold fixed. A variable on the causal path is a mediator whose handling depends on my estimand. And a common effect is a collider I must not condition on, which includes not filtering on it and not stratifying by it. That one four-way sort, applied honestly, would prevent most of the eval-analysis mistakes I have made, and it is exactly the sort that requires a graph, because the four categories are graph properties and nothing about the raw data announces which category a column belongs to. The lab below runs this sort implicitly by planting each structure and showing the fingerprint it leaves, so that I learn to recognize the fingerprints in real logs where the ground truth is hidden.
Ness treats confounding and selection bias in [CAI] as consequences of graph structure rather than as a list of named fallacies, which is the framing I follow here. Part 2 gives you the collider and the selection-on-a-descendant result; Part 3 connects it forward to identification, which is where chapter 4.4 picks up. If you only read one thing alongside this chapter, read Ness's collider example and then come back and re-read the "completed successfully" section above; they are the same theorem in two costumes.
Tooling
The tool here is a two-artifact discipline I apply to every eval design: a DAG and a bias ledger. The DAG is the drawing of my assumptions from chapter 4.2. The bias ledger is a table that, for each non-causal path the DAG contains, names the structure (fork, collider, mediator), the direction it biases my estimate, and the mitigation. I build both in code so the ledger is generated from the graph rather than typed from memory, which means when I edit the graph the ledger updates and cannot silently fall out of sync.
To make this concrete I reuse the judge-calibration data produced in chapter 3.6. That chapter calibrates a judge against a gold set and records, per item, the judge's rating, the gold correctness label, the response length, the presentation position, and whether the run completed. The schema is what I need to test the graph's predictions. Because 3.6's artifact is generated on the baseline machine and I am not going to invent its numbers here, the lab regenerates a stand-in dataset with the same schema and known ground-truth structure, so the reanalysis is fully reproducible and the biases are ones I planted and can therefore verify the method recovers. When I run this for real, I point the same analysis at 3.6's judge_calibration.jsonl instead of the synthetic frame.
Lab
The lab builds the eval-scoring DAG, plants known confounding and collider structure into a synthetic version of the 3.6 calibration data, and then shows three things numerically: the naive judge-versus-gold agreement, how it shifts when I (correctly) freeze the judge as a confounder, and how the "completed successfully" filter manufactures a spurious correlation via the collider. It writes an annotated DAG gallery to disk as the artifact.
# file: labs/p4-03-confounding/reanalyze_judge_data.py
# /// script
# requires-python = ">=3.11"
# dependencies = ["numpy>=2.0", "pandas>=2.2"]
# ///
"""Reanalyze judge-calibration data through the eval-scoring DAG.
Reads chapter 3.6's judge_calibration.jsonl when present; otherwise
synthesizes a stand-in with the same schema and KNOWN causal structure so
the demonstrated biases are ones we planted and can verify we recover.
Schema per row:
gold in {0,1} gold correctness label
length float response length (tokens, normalized)
position in {0,1} presentation position (0 = shown first)
judge_id str which judge scored it
rating float judge rating in [0,1]
completed in {0,1} did the run complete (a COLLIDER)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
RNG = np.random.default_rng(20260722)
def synthesize(n: int = 4000) -> pd.DataFrame:
gold = RNG.integers(0, 2, n) # true correctness
# length is caused by difficulty proxy; independent of gold here on purpose
length = RNG.normal(0.0, 1.0, n)
position = RNG.integers(0, 2, n) # randomized by design
judge_id = RNG.choice(["frozen_v1", "drifting_api"], n, p=[0.5, 0.5])
# rating = true signal + verbosity bias + position bias + judge offset
judge_offset = np.where(judge_id == "drifting_api", 0.15, 0.0) # generous
rating = (0.6 * gold + 0.20 * (length > 0) + 0.10 * (position == 0)
+ judge_offset + RNG.normal(0, 0.05, n))
rating = np.clip(rating, 0, 1)
# completed is a COLLIDER: caused by competence (gold) AND shortness
p_complete = 1 / (1 + np.exp(-(1.2 * gold - 1.0 * length + 0.5)))
completed = (RNG.random(n) < p_complete).astype(int)
return pd.DataFrame(dict(gold=gold, length=length, position=position,
judge_id=judge_id, rating=rating,
completed=completed))
def load_or_make() -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, str]:
p = Path("labs/p3-06-judges/judge_calibration.jsonl")
if p.exists():
return pd.read_json(p, lines=True), "chapter-3.6 artifact"
return synthesize(), "synthetic stand-in (3.6 schema, planted structure)"
def corr(a, b) -> float:
return float(np.corrcoef(a, b)[0, 1])
def main() -> None:
df, source = load_or_make()
print(f"data source: {source} (n={len(df)})\n")
# 1) CONFOUNDER: judge identity. Naive mean rating by judge conflates the
# judge offset with everything else. Freeze the judge -> compare within.
naive = df.groupby("judge_id")["rating"].mean()
within = df[df.judge_id == "frozen_v1"]
print("[confounder] mean rating by judge (naive):")
print(naive.to_string(), "\n")
print(f"[confounder] within frozen judge, rating~gold corr = "
f"{corr(within.gold, within.rating):.3f}\n")
# 2) MEDIATOR: verbosity. rating tracks length even at fixed gold.
for g in (0, 1):
sub = df[df.gold == g]
print(f"[mediator] gold={g}: corr(length, rating) = "
f"{corr(sub.length, sub.rating):+.3f}")
print()
# 3) COLLIDER: 'completed'. gold and length are independent overall, but
# conditioning on completed==1 manufactures a correlation.
print(f"[collider] full population corr(gold, length) = "
f"{corr(df.gold, df.length):+.3f}")
comp = df[df.completed == 1]
print(f"[collider] completed==1 only corr(gold, length) = "
f"{corr(comp.gold, comp.length):+.3f} <-- spurious!\n")
write_gallery(source)
def write_gallery(source: str) -> None:
out = Path("labs/p4-03-confounding")
out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
md = f"""# Eval-bias DAG gallery (v1)
Data source: {source}. Each panel is a bias structure from the eval-scoring
pipeline, its graph, and the mitigation.
## Panel A. Judge identity is a confounder (fork)
```mermaid
flowchart TD
SCH[schedule / drift] --> MOD[model under test]
SCH --> JUD[judge identity]
MOD --> SC[score]
JUD --> SC
```
Mitigation: freeze ONE judge (pinned revision + seed) across every model.
## Panel B. Verbosity is a mediator, position is a nuisance channel
```mermaid
flowchart TD
MOD[model] --> LEN[response length]
MOD --> QUAL[true quality]
LEN --> SC[score]
QUAL --> SC
MOD -->|non-random assignment| POS[presentation position]
POS --> SC
```
Mitigation: length -> decide the estimand (block to isolate quality, keep to
measure deployed ratings). position -> randomize order so it is independent of
the model, severing MOD -> POS so it cannot leak into the score.
## Panel C. 'completed successfully' is a collider
```mermaid
flowchart TD
GOLD[competence] --> COMP[completed?]
LEN[length] --> COMP
GOLD -.->|independent in full pop| LEN
COMP:::sel
classDef sel fill:#fdd,stroke:#c00;
```
Mitigation: do NOT filter on completed. Score failures as failures; report
completion rate as its own outcome.
## Panel D. Leaderboard survivorship (selection on a descendant)
```mermaid
flowchart TD
QUAL[true quality] --> LOOK[looked good on benchmark]
LUCK[benchmark-specific luck] --> LOOK
LOOK --> PUB[published to leaderboard]
PUB:::sel
classDef sel fill:#fdd,stroke:#c00;
```
Mitigation: pre-register the run matrix; report every seed, not the winners.
"""
art = out / "eval_bias_dag_gallery.md"
art.write_text(md)
print(f"artifact written: {art.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run labs/p4-03-confounding/reanalyze_judge_data.py
The artifact is labs/p4-03-confounding/eval_bias_dag_gallery.md, a four-panel gallery where each bias gets its graph and its mitigation, ready to drop into the methodology chapter or a slide. The stdout is the numerical proof that the structures do what the graphs say.
What you should see. Three numerical stories. The confounder panel prints two mean ratings by judge, and the drifting_api judge sits about 0.15 higher than frozen_v1 for no reason but generosity, which is exactly why any model I happened to route to the generous judge would look unfairly good; restricting to the frozen judge gives a clean rating-versus-gold correlation. The mediator panel prints, for each fixed gold label, a clearly positive correlation between length and rating (near +0.4 to +0.5), which is verbosity bias visible even after I hold true correctness constant, the signature of a mediating path I have to decide about rather than ignore. The collider panel is the punchline: corr(gold, length) is essentially zero in the full population (I generated them independent) but turns visibly positive once I filter to completed == 1, because among survivors a long response had to be competent to complete (competence pushes completion up, length pushes it down, so among survivors the two rise together). That sign flip, from roughly zero to positive purely by filtering, is collider bias caught red-handed on the exact "drop the failed runs" move everyone makes. When I later run this against 3.6's real judge_calibration.jsonl, the numbers will differ (record them, with date and driver) but the three structures, if my graph is right, will show the same qualitative fingerprints.
There is a one-line data-cleaning step in almost every eval notebook: drop the runs that crashed, keep the ones that finished, then analyze. It feels like hygiene. It is actually one of the most reliable ways to invent a finding that is not real. "Finished successfully" is caused by several things at once (how good the model is, how hard the item was, how long the answer ran), which makes it a collider, and filtering on a collider forges correlations among its causes. This post walks one synthetic-but-realistic judge dataset where competence and answer-length are provably independent, then shows that keeping only the completed runs makes them correlated, out of nothing. The moral is a rule you can enforce tomorrow: every filter is a causal choice, so score your failures instead of deleting them, and report completion as its own number.
Identification: backdoor and front-door
Goal. Turn a causal question into a formula I can compute from observational data, or prove that I cannot. This is the step that converts a DAG plus a query into an estimator, and it is where "the model got better" either becomes defensible or gets honestly abandoned.
Covers. Adjustment sets; the backdoor criterion; front-door logic; what is and is not identifiable in the model-versus-model comparisons I actually run.
Theory
Identification is the hinge of the whole part
Everything so far has been diagnosis. Chapter 4.1 said my thesis claims live on rung two. Chapters 4.2 and 4.3 gave me the graph and the vocabulary of the ways paths open and close. Identification is the payoff: given a causal query and a DAG, decide whether the query can be written purely in terms of observational quantities that I can estimate from logged data, and if so, write the formula. If I can, the effect is identifiable and I compute it. If I cannot, no amount of data of that kind will answer the question, and the honest move is to say so and either run an experiment or fall back to sensitivity analysis (chapter 4.5).
The reason identification is not automatic is the whole content of chapter 4.3: and differ by exactly the non-causal paths between and . The operator, applied to the graph, means "delete every arrow into ," because intervening on overrides whatever normally causes it. So identification is the art of accounting for the difference between the mutilated graph (arrows into removed) and the original, using only observable variables.
The backdoor criterion
A backdoor path from to is any path that starts with an arrow into (i.e. ). These are the non-causal paths, the ones that carry confounding, because they connect to through 's causes rather than its effects. The backdoor criterion says: a set of variables suffices to identify the effect of on if blocks every backdoor path and contains no descendant of . The second condition matters, because a descendant of might be a mediator or a collider, and conditioning on it either throws away part of the effect or opens a new spurious path.
Let satisfy the backdoor criterion relative to in DAG : (i) blocks every path from to that has an arrow into , and (ii) no node in is a descendant of . Then the interventional distribution is identified by
Why this holds. Intervening with produces the mutilated graph with all arrows into removed. In , the parents of no longer point at it, so is independent of any prior causes, and the truncated factorization (2.3) drops the factor:
Marginalize (4.2) over everything except and the backdoor-blocking set . Because blocks all backdoor paths and contains no descendant of , conditioning on makes and share only the directed (causal) paths, so within a stratum the interventional and observational conditionals coincide:
The distribution of is unaffected by intervening on a descendant-free set relative to (no arrow into reaches causally through ), so . Averaging (4.3) over that unchanged distribution gives (4.1).
Equation (4.1) is the workhorse. It says: to get the causal effect, estimate the outcome within each stratum of the confounders, then average those stratum-specific outcomes using the confounders' marginal distribution, not the distribution conditional on . That reweighting is the entire difference between the adjusted and the naive comparison. The naive comparison, , uses as the implicit weights and so lets the confounder distribution differ between the two treatment arms; the adjusted one forces a common weighting and thereby simulates the experiment I could not run.
When there is no admissible adjustment set: the front door
Sometimes every candidate confounder is unmeasured, so no observable blocks the backdoor paths and (4.1) is unavailable. The front-door criterion rescues a subset of these cases by exploiting a fully mediating variable. Suppose affects only through a mediator (), the mediator has no unblocked backdoor to , and every backdoor from to is blocked by . Then even with an unmeasured confounder sitting on and , the effect is identified through .
Assume the front-door graph: an unobserved confounder and , a mediator with , and no direct edge and no edge. The three front-door conditions hold: intercepts every directed path from to ; there is no unblocked backdoor from to ; and blocks every backdoor from to .
Decompose the effect into two identifiable pieces. The effect of on has no backdoor (nothing confounds and , since does not touch ), so it is identified directly:
The effect of on is confounded by through , but blocks that backdoor, so by backdoor adjustment on :
Chain them. Intervening on sets 's distribution via (4.4), and each value then acts on via (4.5), giving the front-door formula:
The inner sum over deconfounds the step; the outer sum propagates 's influence through the mediator. The effect is identified even though was never measured.
The front door is beautiful and, in eval practice, rare, because it needs a mediator that captures the entire effect and is itself unconfounded with the outcome except through the treatment. Most eval mediators (length, verbosity) fail the "no direct effect" condition, since the model plausibly affects the score through channels besides the mediator. I keep the front door in my kit for one reason: it is the formal statement that a clean, fully-mediating mechanism can rescue identification when confounders are hopeless, and occasionally a well-instrumented pipeline gives me exactly that.
What is and is not identifiable in eval comparisons
The sober lesson is that most naive model-versus-model comparisons are not identified as run, because the two models were served, decoded, and judged under conditions that differ alongside the model. The good news is that the fix is usually cheap: I can measure the confounders (judge, decoding config, prompt template, difficulty mix) and adjust with (4.1), or I can design them away by holding them fixed. An ablation is the cleanest case of all, because randomized or held-fixed design makes the backdoor set empty and (4.1) collapses to the naive difference, which is then valid. The whole point of chapter 4.6's audit is to certify, path by path, that the thesis comparison has a real adjustment set and I have used it.
The three assumptions hiding inside (4.1)
Backdoor adjustment looks like pure arithmetic, but three assumptions ride along underneath it, and every one of them is a place the estimate can quietly fail even when the code runs clean. Naming them is the difference between "I adjusted for difficulty" and "I adjusted for difficulty, and here is why the adjusted number means what I say it means."
The first is no unmeasured confounding, sometimes called conditional exchangeability: the set I conditioned on really does block every backdoor path. This is not testable from the data; it is an assumption about the graph, and the graph is an assumption about the world. If a confounder exists that I did not measure and did not put in , (4.1) returns a number, and the number is wrong, and nothing in the output warns me. This is exactly why chapter 4.5's sensitivity analysis exists: since I cannot prove no unmeasured confounder exists, I quantify how strong one would have to be to matter.
The second is positivity (also called overlap): within every stratum that has nonzero weight, both treatments must actually occur, so that for the values I compare. If model was never evaluated on any hard item, then the hard-item stratum contributes a term I cannot estimate, and (4.1) either silently drops it or extrapolates. In eval practice positivity fails whenever the confounder and the treatment are too tightly coupled, for instance if I only ever ran model on the easy split. The lab below deliberately keeps overlap positive (every difficulty level sees both models) precisely so the adjustment is estimable; a real pipeline has to check this, because a stratum with no support is a stratum where the causal question has no answer from this data.
The third is consistency: the potential outcome under the treatment I assigned equals the outcome I observed, which requires that "model " names a single well-defined intervention and not a bundle of things that varied run to run. If "model " secretly means "model at whatever temperature I happened to use that day," then the treatment is ill-defined and the effect I estimate is a blur over decoding settings. Pinning the intervention (fixed decoding, fixed template) is what makes consistency hold, and it is the same discipline the control-run protocol in chapter 4.5 enforces from the intervention side.
The do-calculus that Ness develops in [CAI] Part 3 generalizes both formulas above: it is a set of three rewrite rules that is provably complete, meaning that if an effect is identifiable from the graph at all, the calculus can derive its formula, and if the calculus cannot, the effect is genuinely non-identifiable from observational data. That completeness is why "not identifiable" is a real verdict and not just an admission that I did not try hard enough. When a tool like dowhy reports no valid adjustment set, it is telling me to go collect different data (run the experiment, measure the missing confounder) rather than to reshuffle the data I have.
Ness develops identification in [CAI] Part 3: the backdoor criterion, adjustment, and the do-calculus of which the backdoor and front-door formulas are special cases. Read Part 3 for the do-calculus rules if you want the general engine; the two derivations above are the two cases you will actually reach for. Ness also demonstrates the dowhy workflow (model, identify, estimate, refute), which is the tooling I lean on next and which automates exactly the step from graph to formula (4.1).
The reflex to throw every logged column into the adjustment set is the fastest way to break (4.1). If contains a collider, or a descendant of the treatment, or a variable on the causal path, the formula still runs and still returns a confident number, but that number is now biased in a direction the arithmetic will never reveal. The backdoor criterion is a filter that says which variables belong in and, just as importantly, which must be kept out. A valid adjustment set is often small: for the thesis comparison it is the handful of confounders (difficulty mix, judge, decoding config, template) that sit on genuine backdoor paths, not the full width of the eval log. When in doubt, adjust for causes of the treatment and causes of the outcome, never for their common effects, and never for anything downstream of the treatment.
Tooling
Doing identification by hand is fine for a five-node graph and error-prone past that, so the tool is a library that takes a graph and a query and returns the estimand. In the Python ecosystem that is dowhy, whose four-step ritual (model the graph, identify the estimand, estimate it, refute it) maps one-to-one onto this part: modeling is chapters 4.2 and 4.3, identification is this chapter, estimation is the arithmetic below, and refutation is chapter 4.5's placebo and sensitivity checks. dowhy will hand me back equation (4.1) with the adjustment set filled in, and it will refuse when no set exists, which is exactly the "not identifiable, go run an experiment" verdict I want it to be willing to give.
For the lab I keep dependencies light and implement the backdoor adjustment (4.1) directly in pandas, because seeing the stratify-then-reweight step in eight lines of code is more instructive than calling a solver, and it makes unmistakable that the adjusted estimate is just the naive estimate with the confounder distribution put back to its marginal. Once the arithmetic is in my hands, swapping in dowhy for larger graphs is a mechanical upgrade, not a leap.
Lab
The lab compares two models on a task where a confounder (item difficulty) differs between the arms, because model happened to be evaluated on an easier difficulty mix. The naive comparison credits for the difficulty gap. The backdoor adjustment (4.1) strips it out. I plant a known true effect so I can check which estimate recovers it.
# file: labs/p4-04-identification/adjusted_comparison.py
# /// script
# requires-python = ">=3.11"
# dependencies = ["numpy>=2.0", "pandas>=2.2"]
# ///
"""Naive vs backdoor-adjusted model-vs-model comparison.
Graph: difficulty D --> score S ; D --> model-assignment (confounding) ;
model X --> score S. D is the backdoor-blocking set.
We plant a TRUE effect of model B over A and check that the adjusted
estimator (eq 4.1) recovers it while the naive difference does not.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
RNG = np.random.default_rng(20260722)
TRUE_EFFECT = 0.08 # model B adds 8 points of accuracy at fixed difficulty
def simulate(n: int = 8000) -> pd.DataFrame:
# difficulty in {easy, med, hard}; easy items score higher
diff = RNG.choice(["easy", "med", "hard"], n, p=[0.34, 0.33, 0.33])
base = pd.Series(diff).map({"easy": 0.70, "med": 0.50, "hard": 0.30}).to_numpy()
# CONFOUNDING: model B was preferentially evaluated on EASY items
p_B = pd.Series(diff).map({"easy": 0.75, "med": 0.50, "hard": 0.25}).to_numpy()
model = np.where(RNG.random(n) < p_B, "B", "A")
lift = np.where(model == "B", TRUE_EFFECT, 0.0)
p_correct = np.clip(base + lift, 0, 1)
score = (RNG.random(n) < p_correct).astype(float)
return pd.DataFrame(dict(difficulty=diff, model=model, score=score))
def naive(df: pd.DataFrame) -> float:
m = df.groupby("model")["score"].mean()
return float(m["B"] - m["A"])
def backdoor_adjusted(df: pd.DataFrame, Z=("difficulty",)) -> float:
# eq 4.1: E[Y|do(B)] - E[Y|do(A)]
# = sum_z [ E[Y|X=B,z] - E[Y|X=A,z] ] P(z)
pz = df.groupby(list(Z)).size() / len(df)
cond = df.groupby(["model", *Z])["score"].mean()
est = 0.0
for z, w in pz.items():
z = z if isinstance(z, tuple) else (z,)
key_b = ("B", *z); key_a = ("A", *z)
if key_b in cond.index and key_a in cond.index:
est += (cond[key_b] - cond[key_a]) * w
return float(est)
def main() -> None:
df = simulate()
n_naive, adj = naive(df), backdoor_adjusted(df)
result = {
"true_effect": TRUE_EFFECT,
"naive_diff_in_means": round(n_naive, 4),
"backdoor_adjusted": round(adj, 4),
"adjustment_set": ["difficulty"],
"naive_bias": round(n_naive - TRUE_EFFECT, 4),
"adjusted_bias": round(adj - TRUE_EFFECT, 4),
}
out = Path("labs/p4-04-identification")
out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
art = out / "adjusted_comparison.json"
art.write_text(json.dumps(result, indent=2))
print(json.dumps(result, indent=2))
# show the confounding directly
print("\nP(difficulty | model):")
print(pd.crosstab(df.model, df.difficulty, normalize="index").round(3))
print(f"\nartifact written: {art.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run labs/p4-04-identification/adjusted_comparison.py
The artifact is labs/p4-04-identification/adjusted_comparison.json, holding the planted true effect, the naive difference in means, the backdoor-adjusted effect, and the bias of each against the truth. The crosstab printed underneath is the confounding made visible: model 's items are disproportionately easy.
What you should see. The naive difference in means comes out much larger than the planted 0.08, on the order of 0.20 or more, because was handed easier items and the naive comparison pays for the difficulty gap on top of its real 8-point edge. The backdoor-adjusted estimate lands close to 0.08, with a bias near zero (up to sampling noise on 8000 items), because (4.1) compares and within each difficulty stratum and then reweights by the overall difficulty mix rather than by each model's self-selected mix. The crosstab confirms the mechanism: 's row is skewed toward "easy" and 's toward "hard." The one-sentence takeaway to carry into the audit is that the naive and adjusted numbers disagree by an amount equal to the confounding, and only the adjusted number estimates the thing " is better" is supposed to mean. When I run the real thesis comparison, difficulty will not be the only backdoor variable; the judge, decoding config, and prompt template all need to be in or held fixed, and chapter 4.6 is where I enumerate them and certify the set is complete.
Here is a number that is technically true and completely misleading: "Model B scores 20 points higher than Model A." It is true because I measured it. It is misleading because B was quietly evaluated on easier problems. The fix has a name (backdoor adjustment) and a formula that is less scary than it looks: instead of comparing the two models' raw averages, compare them within each difficulty level and then average those gaps using the overall difficulty mix. Do that and B's real edge shrinks from 20 points to 8, which is the honest number. This post derives the adjustment from one idea (intervening on a variable means deleting the arrows that normally point into it) and shows the whole correction in eight lines of pandas. The takeaway for anyone who ships eval tables: your naive comparison and your adjusted comparison differ by exactly the confounding you did not control, so compute both and let the gap tell you how much your setup was lying.
Interventions on models: is the reasoning delta causal?
Goal. Treat a training run as an intervention and ask, honestly, whether the pre/post score change it produced is the causal effect of training or an artifact of everything that moved alongside it. Then design the control runs that let me answer.
Covers. Training as a do-operation; pre/post designs as interrupted time series; placebo controls (random-reward runs) and negative controls (held-out unrelated tasks); sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding.
Theory
Training is a do, and pre/post is the weakest design that could work
When I run GRPO on the model, I am performing : I reach in and change the weights on purpose. That is genuinely rung two, and it is the good news, because unlike a leaderboard comparison I actually control the intervention. The bad news is that my design for measuring its effect, run the eval before, run the eval after, subtract, is the weakest design in the causal toolkit. It is a single-unit, pre/post, before-and-after comparison, and its Achilles heel is that anything else that changed between "before" and "after" is perfectly confounded with the training.
The list of things that plausibly changed between the two evals is long and boring and lethal: the vLLM version, the decoding seed, the KV-cache settings, the prompt template, the judge revision, the GPU thermal state, even the phase of the sampler's RNG. Any of these that touches the score sits on a backdoor path from "train" to "delta," and the pre/post difference sums the training effect with all of them. Chapter 7.6 computes the delta with careful paired statistics; those statistics tighten the confidence interval around the difference, but a tight interval around a confounded quantity is precision about the wrong number. Statistics answers "is the delta distinguishable from noise." Causal design answers "is the delta the effect of training." I need both, and this chapter is the second.
Interrupted time series: give the before-and-after a shape
The upgrade from a two-point pre/post to something defensible is to treat the run as an interrupted time series. Instead of one measurement before and one after, I take the eval at several checkpoints along training and model the trajectory, so the intervention's effect is a change in level or slope of a curve rather than a single jump I have to take on faith. If the score was already drifting upward before the reward signal kicked in (say, from KL-regularized movement toward the reference), a time series shows that drift and lets me attribute only the extra change to the reward. A two-point design cannot tell drift from effect; a trajectory can.
Formally I fit the score at training step as a level plus a trend plus an intervention term that switches on at the step $t^*$ where the causal reward begins to bite:
$$ S_t = \beta_0 + \beta_1 t + \beta_2 \mathbb{1}[t \ge t^*] + \beta_3 (t - t^*)\mathbb{1}[t \ge t^*] + \varepsilon_t. \tag{5.1} $$
Here is the immediate level shift at the intervention and is the change in slope after it. The pre-intervention trend is exactly the drift a naive pre/post design would misattribute to training. Reading the effect off and instead of off a single subtraction is how I stop crediting training for motion that was already underway.
One caveat keeps this honest for my setup: a GRPO run has the verifiable reward active from step 0, so there is no reward-free segment within the run from which to read a clean pre-onset . Here $t^*$ is not a switch I flip mid-run; it marks the step where I expect the reward's effect to emerge, and is estimated from the early trajectory rather than from a genuinely pre-reward stretch. The counterfactual drift I actually compare the effect against, the trajectory of "the training machinery running with no task signal," comes from the placebo run of the next section, which is why the interrupted time series and the placebo are two halves of one argument rather than independent controls.
Placebo controls: the random-reward run
The single most convincing control I can run on one GPU is a placebo: an identical training run in every respect except that the reward carries no task signal. I replace the verifiable reward with a random reward (or a constant, or a shuffled reward that breaks the response-to-score correspondence), keep the KL penalty, the group size, the learning rate, the number of steps, the decoding config, and the eval harness all identical, and I measure the delta. If the placebo run moves the eval as much as the real run, then whatever I am seeing is not the task reward; it is the optimization machinery, the KL drift, or the eval's own noise. The placebo isolates the reward as the active ingredient by holding constant everything that is not the reward.
This is the causal analogue of a sugar pill, and it does something no statistic can: it gives me a null distribution generated by my actual pipeline, with all its real confounders present, under the hypothesis that the reward does nothing. The real run's delta is only credible as a training effect to the extent that it exceeds the placebo run's delta. A random-reward run that moves the needle is not a nuisance; it is the most useful negative result I can get, because it tells me my "improvement" was mechanism, not signal.
Negative controls: the held-out unrelated task
A placebo controls the intervention; a negative control controls the outcome. I pick a task the training should not affect (an unrelated capability the reward never touched: say, a trivia or formatting task orthogonal to the reasoning skill I trained) and I evaluate on it before and after. If the unrelated task moves as much as the target task, then something global shifted (the judge drifted, the decoding changed, the harness updated), and my target-task delta is contaminated by that global shift rather than reflecting a specific reasoning gain. A negative-control outcome that stays flat while the target moves is strong evidence that the effect is specific to what I trained, which is most of what "the model reasons better" is supposed to mean.
Placebo and negative controls attack the two halves of the confounding story from opposite ends. The placebo asks "if the reward were meaningless, would the score still move?" The negative control asks "if the score moved, did unrelated scores move too?" Passing both is the closest I get, on one GPU without a randomized multi-model experiment, to certifying that the delta is the causal effect of the training I intended.
Why the single-GPU constraint makes controls cheap, not expensive
It would be easy to read this chapter as a counsel of perfection I cannot afford on one 16GB card, but the economics run the other way. The placebo run reuses the exact same code path, the exact same model, and the exact same eval harness as the main run; the only change is the reward function, which is a few lines. So a placebo costs one more training run of identical size, not a new experimental apparatus, and on a single GPU where I am already time-multiplexing serving and training (chapter 0.4), one more run is a scheduling entry, not a hardware ask. The negative-control task is even cheaper: it is one more eval pass over a small held-out suite, seconds of inference, no training at all. What the single-GPU regime actually forces is discipline about which controls earn their slot, because I cannot run twenty of them, and that scarcity is healthy: it makes me pre-commit to the two or three controls that would most change my mind, which is exactly the pre-registration habit chapter 7.7 formalizes. Expensive experiments tempt people to skip controls; cheap ones let me afford the controls that matter, and the reward-swap placebo is the cheapest high-value control in the whole book.
A note on reading many controls at once
Once I run a placebo, a negative control, and an interrupted-time-series with several checkpoints, I am looking at several comparisons, and several comparisons invite the multiplicity trap: if I run enough contrasts, one will look significant by luck. I handle this the way chapter 3.7 handles it for evals, by deciding in advance which contrasts constitute the claim and treating the rest as descriptive, rather than by hunting through all of them for the one that clears a threshold. The controls are not a fishing expedition for a positive result; they are a fixed set of pre-registered attacks, and the claim survives only if it survives all of them, not if it survives the best-looking one. Framing the controls as a conjunction ("the delta beats the placebo AND the negative control stayed flat AND the trajectory showed a real shift") rather than a disjunction is what keeps multiplicity from creeping back in through the side door, and it is why the protocol below states the decision rule as an explicit AND.
Chapter 7.6 will report a reasoning delta on the SDA verifiable-reasoning suite: post-training pass@1 minus pre-training pass@1, with paired bootstrap intervals over shared items. That is a rung-one difference with a confidence interval. To promote it to the rung-two claim "GRPO training on the verifiable reward improved SDA reasoning," the thread now commits to three controls, all run on the baseline machine with identical config except the named change (record every value, date, and driver):
- Placebo (random-reward) run. Same recipe, reward replaced by a shuffled reward that destroys the response-to-correctness mapping. Claim survives only if the real delta exceeds the placebo delta beyond their overlapping intervals.
- Negative-control task. A held-out formatting/trivia suite the reward never touched, evaluated pre and post. Claim survives only if this stays flat while SDA moves.
- Interrupted time series. Eval at several checkpoints so the SDA gain is read as a level/slope change (eq 5.1), not a two-point jump, separating reward effect from pre-existing KL drift.
The delta from 7.6 is the numerator. These three controls are the denominator that makes it an effect rather than a coincidence. Chapter 4.6 folds all three into the audit, and chapter 7.7 schedules them into the run matrix.
Sensitivity analysis: how strong would a hidden confounder have to be?
Even after placebo and negative controls, some unmeasured confounder might remain. I cannot rule it out, but I can quantify how strong it would have to be to explain away my result, and that quantity is itself a defensible, committee-facing number. The cleanest single summary is the E-value: the minimum strength of association, on the risk-ratio scale, that an unmeasured confounder would need to have with both the treatment and the outcome to fully account for the observed effect. A large E-value means only an implausibly strong hidden confounder could overturn the finding; a small one means a mild unmeasured cause could.
The whole power of the random-reward run comes from its being byte-for-byte identical to the main run except for the reward. If I accidentally change the number of steps, the learning rate, the group size, or the decoding seed alongside swapping the reward, the placebo no longer isolates the reward, and a difference between the two runs could be any of the things I let vary. The most common self-inflicted version is running the placebo for fewer steps "to save time," which quietly makes it a weaker intervention and flatters the main run by comparison. The discipline is to change exactly one thing, verify config equality in the logs the same way the main pipeline does (chapter 4.6's T3), and treat any drift in the invariants as a failed control that must be rerun, not explained away.
Ness frames placebo tests, negative controls, and sensitivity analysis in [CAI] Part 3 as the "refute" step of the model-identify-estimate-refute loop: having identified and estimated an effect, you attack it. Read that section for the philosophy (an estimate you have not tried to break is not yet evidence) and for the do-calculus view of why a random-reward placebo is a valid null. The E-value construction below follows VanderWeele and Ding; Ness's treatment of unmeasured confounding gives the graphical intuition for what the E-value is bounding.
Tooling
The tooling is a control-run protocol: a machine-readable specification of the runs I must launch, what each one holds fixed, what it varies, and the decision rule that says whether the main claim survives. Writing it as a file rather than as prose does two things. It forces me to pre-commit to the comparisons before I see the numbers, which is the pre-registration habit chapter 7.7 formalizes, and it becomes an executable checklist the experiment plan can consume directly. The protocol is the artifact of this chapter and the input to 7.7.
Alongside the protocol I need one computation: the E-value, so that the sensitivity claim is a number and not a hand-wave. Given an observed effect expressed as a risk ratio (with ; invert if below), the E-value is
For an effect on a difference scale (like a pass-rate delta) I first convert to an approximate risk ratio, report the E-value for the point estimate and, more importantly, for the confidence-interval limit nearest the null, because that is the one an adversary attacks. Equation (5.2) is small enough to keep in my head and load-bearing enough to end an argument.
Lab
The lab does two things: it emits the control-run protocol as a versioned YAML the experiment plan will adopt, and it computes E-values for a plausible reasoning delta so the sensitivity claim is concrete. No GPU is required here; the protocol describes the GPU runs, and the E-value is arithmetic. The actual pre/post numbers are placeholders to be filled from real runs on the baseline machine.
# file: labs/p4-05-interventions/build_control_protocol.py
# /// script
# requires-python = ">=3.11"
# dependencies = ["numpy>=2.0", "pyyaml>=6.0"]
# ///
"""Emit the control-run protocol (adopted by chapter 7.7) and compute
E-values for the reasoning-delta claim.
The pre/post rates below are PLACEHOLDERS. Replace with measured values from
the baseline machine (record value, date, driver) before citing.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import math
from pathlib import Path
import yaml
def e_value(rr: float) -> float:
"""VanderWeele-Ding E-value for a risk ratio (rr >= 1)."""
if rr < 1:
rr = 1.0 / rr
return rr + math.sqrt(rr * (rr - 1.0))
def rate_to_rr(p_post: float, p_pre: float) -> float:
return p_post / p_pre
PROTOCOL = {
"protocol": "thesis control-run protocol",
"version": "1.0",
"consumed_by": ["p7-loop/07-ablations (experiment plan)",
"p4-causal/06-causal-audit (audit v1.0)"],
"estimand": "causal effect of GRPO verifiable-reward training on SDA pass@1",
"invariants_held_fixed_across_all_runs": [
"vLLM version + flags", "decoding seed + temperature + top_p",
"prompt template", "judge revision + seed", "eval item set (frozen v1.0)",
"KL coefficient", "group size", "learning rate", "step count",
],
"runs": [
{"id": "main", "reward": "verifiable SDA reward",
"purpose": "estimate the reasoning delta"},
{"id": "placebo_random_reward", "reward": "shuffled reward (breaks response->score map)",
"purpose": "null generated by the real pipeline; main must exceed this"},
{"id": "placebo_constant_reward", "reward": "constant reward",
"purpose": "isolate KL/optimizer drift from task signal"},
],
"outcomes": [
{"id": "target", "task": "SDA verifiable-reasoning suite v1.0",
"expect": "moves under main, flat-ish under placebo"},
{"id": "negative_control", "task": "held-out formatting/trivia suite",
"expect": "flat under all runs; if it moves, a global shift is confounding"},
],
"design": {
"type": "interrupted time series",
"checkpoints": "eval at >=4 training steps to separate drift from effect (eq 5.1)",
"statistics": "paired bootstrap over shared items (see 7.6)",
},
"decision_rule": (
"Promote the delta to a causal claim only if: (a) main delta exceeds "
"both placebo deltas beyond overlapping bootstrap intervals; (b) the "
"negative-control task stays within noise; (c) the interrupted-time-"
"series level/slope term is significant beyond pre-intervention drift; "
"(d) the E-value at the near-null CI limit exceeds a pre-set threshold."
),
"sensitivity": {"method": "E-value (VanderWeele-Ding, eq 5.2)",
"threshold_note": "set threshold before seeing results"},
}
def main() -> None:
out = Path("labs/p4-05-interventions")
out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
art = out / "control_run_protocol.yaml"
art.write_text(yaml.safe_dump(PROTOCOL, sort_keys=False))
# E-value illustration with PLACEHOLDER rates
p_pre, p_post = 0.52, 0.61 # placeholder pre/post pass@1
p_ci_low = 0.55 # placeholder near-null CI limit for post
rr_point = rate_to_rr(p_post, p_pre)
rr_ci = rate_to_rr(p_ci_low, p_pre)
print("PLACEHOLDER rates (replace with baseline-machine measurements):")
print(f" pre={p_pre} post={p_post} post_CI_low={p_ci_low}")
print(f" RR(point) = {rr_point:.3f} E-value = {e_value(rr_point):.2f}")
print(f" RR(CI) = {rr_ci:.3f} E-value = {e_value(rr_ci):.2f}"
" <-- the one an adversary attacks")
print(f"\nprotocol written: {art.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run labs/p4-05-interventions/build_control_protocol.py
The artifact is labs/p4-05-interventions/control_run_protocol.yaml: the frozen list of runs, invariants, outcomes, the interrupted-time-series design, the decision rule, and the sensitivity method. That file is what chapter 7.7 reads to build its run matrix and what chapter 4.6 cites as the intervention half of the audit.
What you should see. The protocol YAML on disk, and two E-values on stdout. With the placeholder rates, the point-estimate risk ratio is about 1.17 (0.61 over 0.52) giving an E-value near 1.6, and the CI-limit risk ratio near 1.06 gives an E-value near 1.3. Read those numbers as: an unmeasured confounder would need associations of roughly 1.6-fold (point) or 1.3-fold (worst case) with both training and score to explain the whole effect away. Whether that is "reassuringly large" or "worryingly small" is a judgment I make against a threshold I set before seeing the data, which is why the protocol records the threshold as a pre-commitment rather than a post-hoc rationalization. The real reasoning delta and its interval come from the baseline machine in chapter 7.6; when I have them, I re-run this to get the true E-values and record them with date and driver. The durable lesson is that the delta alone is never the claim: the claim is the delta plus a placebo it beat, a negative control that stayed flat, a trajectory that showed a real level shift, and an E-value large enough that no plausible hidden confounder rescues the null.
Your model's score went up after training. Congratulations, you have measured a difference. You have not yet measured an effect, and the gap between those two words is where most "our method improves reasoning" claims quietly fail. The cure is three controls you can run on a single GPU. Run the exact same training with the reward shuffled into noise (a placebo): if the score still climbs, your gain was the optimizer, not the reward. Evaluate on a task you never trained on (a negative control): if it climbs too, something global drifted and your "improvement" is contamination. And take the eval at several checkpoints instead of just before-and-after, so you can see whether the score was already rising on its own. This post makes the case that a reasoning delta is a numerator, and these controls are the denominator that turns it into evidence, with a copy-pasteable protocol and a one-line sensitivity number (the E-value) that tells you how strong a hidden confounder would have to be to erase your result.
Causal audit of the thesis eval design
Goal. Put the whole part to work: draw the complete causal DAG of the serve, score, and train pipeline, enumerate every threat to the validity of the reasoning-delta claim, map each threat to a mitigation that lives in a specific chapter, and freeze the result as a citable audit document. This is the part capstone and a methodology-chapter exhibit.
Covers. The full DAG of the serve-to-score-to-train pipeline; enumerated threats to validity with mitigations mapped to chapters; the audit as a standing exhibit that chapter 9.2 cites verbatim.
Theory
What an audit is, and why it is the right closing move
Chapters 4.1 through 4.5 built a toolkit: the ladder, the graph atoms, the bias taxonomy, identification, and the control-run design. An audit is what happens when I turn that toolkit back on my own experiment and try, in writing, to break it. The audit is not a defense of the thesis result. It is a structured attack on it, authored by me before the committee authors theirs, and its value is precisely that it names the weaknesses out loud and shows where each one is handled. A claim that has survived a written attack by its own author is worth more than a claim that was never questioned, and the audit is the document that proves the attack happened.
The organizing spine is the classic fourfold taxonomy of validity, which maps cleanly onto the causal machinery. Internal validity asks whether the delta is the effect of training rather than of a confounder; this is the backdoor and control-run material of chapters 4.4 and 4.5. External validity asks whether the effect generalizes beyond the exact items, seeds, and machine I measured on; this is the sampling-frame and contamination material of Part III. Construct validity asks whether the score measures reasoning at all rather than verbosity, formatting, or judge idiosyncrasy; this is the judge-calibration and scorer material of chapters 3.6 and 4.3. Statistical conclusion validity asks whether the delta is distinguishable from noise; this is the paired-bootstrap and power material of chapters 3.7 and 7.6. Each kind of validity is a different way the claim can be wrong, and a complete audit has to speak to all four.
The full pipeline DAG, unrolled in time
The loop of Figure 0.1 is a cycle, and a cycle is not a DAG. The fix from chapter 4.2 is to unroll it in time: the model before training and the model after training are two different nodes, and the training intervention is the edge between them. Once unrolled, the whole serve-to-score-to-train pipeline is a legal DAG, and every threat to validity is a specific unwanted path on it. Here is the graph as I audit it.
flowchart TD
subgraph exog[exogenous / design-controlled]
SEED[decoding seed]
TMPL[prompt template]
JUDV[judge revision + seed]
ITEMS[frozen item set v1.0]
ENGINE[vLLM version + flags]
MACH[baseline machine + driver]
end
M0[model @ pre] --> R0[responses @ pre]
SEED --> R0
TMPL --> R0
ENGINE --> R0
MACH --> R0
R0 --> LEN0[length @ pre]
R0 --> SC0[score @ pre]
LEN0 --> SC0
JUDV --> SC0
ITEMS --> SC0
M0 --> TRAIN[[GRPO train: do-intervention]]
REWARD[verifiable reward] --> TRAIN
TRAIN --> M1[model @ post]
M1 --> R1[responses @ post]
SEED --> R1
TMPL --> R1
ENGINE --> R1
MACH --> R1
R1 --> LEN1[length @ post]
R1 --> SC1[score @ post]
LEN1 --> SC1
JUDV --> SC1
ITEMS --> SC1
SC0 --> DELTA{{reasoning delta}}
SC1 --> DELTA
Read the graph as the audit's map. The intervention I care about is the TRAIN node, and the estimand is its effect on DELTA. Every exogenous node in the top box is a potential confounder of the pre-versus-post comparison, and it is a confounder exactly when it is allowed to differ between the pre and post arms. The entire strategy of the audit is to force every one of those nodes to be identical across pre and post (held-fixed, so no backdoor path through it is open) or, where it cannot be frozen, to name it as a residual threat and bound it with sensitivity analysis. The LEN to SC edges are the verbosity mediator; the JUDV to SC edges are the judge confounder; the shared SEED, TMPL, ENGINE, MACH, ITEMS nodes are the pipeline invariants that must not move between the two evals. When they are all shared, the only open path from TRAIN to DELTA is the causal one through M1, and the delta is identified. The one apparent backdoor, running from TRAIN back through M0 to R0, SC0, and DELTA, does not actually confound: M0 is a single fixed shared checkpoint, the same pre-training model feeding both arms, so it is a constant and a constant cannot confound; and because TRAIN is a do-intervention, the do severs the incoming M0 to TRAIN edge anyway.
Threats as unwanted paths
The discipline of the audit is to go edge by edge and ask: is there a path from a nuisance variable to the delta that is open, and if so, which mitigation closes it and where does that mitigation live? This is where the whole book becomes a single argument, because the mitigations are not invented in the audit; they are cashed out to specific chapters that already did the work. The judge confounder is closed by freezing the judge (chapter 3.6 calibrates it, chapter 4.3 diagnoses it). The verbosity mediator is handled by a declared estimand and length-controlled reporting (chapter 4.3). The pre-existing-drift threat is closed by the interrupted time series and the placebo run (chapter 4.5). The contamination threat, which would break external validity by letting the model have seen the eval items, is closed by the dataset hygiene of Part III. The noise threat is closed by paired bootstrap intervals and a power-justified item count (chapters 3.7 and 7.6). The audit's job is to make that mapping explicit and complete, so that no threat is left without an owner.
Closed threats versus bounded threats
The most important distinction the audit draws is between a threat I have closed and one I have only bounded, because conflating the two is how an audit turns from an honesty instrument into a whitewash. A closed threat is one my design eliminates: if I hold the decoding seed, prompt template, engine version, and judge revision identical across the pre and post evals, then those backdoor paths are not merely unlikely, they are absent, because a variable that does not vary cannot confound. Closing a threat is a matter of design and verification (assert config equality in the logs, fail the run if it drifts), and a closed threat needs no further argument. A bounded threat is one I cannot eliminate but can quantify: a hosted judge that might silently update, a pretraining corpus I cannot inspect for contamination, a seed count the 16GB budget caps below what I would like. For these the audit does not pretend closure; it states the residual risk and attaches a bound, an E-value for unmeasured confounding, a decontamination check with a known false-negative rate, a power calculation that says how large an effect I could have missed. A committee reader can tell instantly which kind of claim each row is making, and the credibility of the whole audit rests on my never dressing a bounded threat as a closed one. The residual-risk column in the lab's threats table is where that honesty is enforced, one row at a time.
The audit as a living exhibit, and its limits
The audit is versioned because the eval design will change, and a claim about validity is only as current as the design it describes. Version 1.0 is frozen at the moment the thesis eval design settles, and chapter 9.2 lifts it verbatim into the methodology chapter, so that the thesis and the book point at one and the same object rather than at two paraphrases that can drift apart. If I later add a task, swap a judge, or change the item count, the audit gets a version bump, the affected threat rows change, and 9.2's citation follows; there is always exactly one audit of record. What the audit deliberately does not do is certify that the result is correct. It certifies that the design is capable of supporting the causal claim if the runs come out as the decision rule requires, which is a statement about the experiment's structure, not about its outcome. A clean audit plus a null result is a perfectly coherent state of the world: it means the design was sound and the effect was not there, which is a finding, not a failure. Keeping those two things separate, the soundness of the design and the sign of the result, is what lets the audit be written before the runs finish, and writing it before the runs finish is what keeps it from being a rationalization of whatever numbers happened to come out.
This chapter is where [CAI] stops being a reference and becomes a method. The audit is Ness's model-identify-estimate-refute loop applied to my own thesis: the DAG above is "model," chapter 4.4 is "identify," chapters 7.6 and 4.4's lab are "estimate," and chapter 4.5's controls plus the threats table below are "refute." If you read [CAI] end to end alongside Part IV, this chapter is the exam. The audit document the lab emits is the answer I would hand a committee, and its structure (estimand, graph, threats, mitigations-by-chapter, residual risks, sensitivity) is a template you can reuse for any causal claim in any empirical thesis, not just this one.
Tooling
The tool is the audit document itself, generated from a structured specification so that it stays in sync with the rest of the book. I keep the threats as data (a list of records, each with a validity type, the graph path it corresponds to, the mitigation, the owning chapter, and a residual-risk note) and render both a human-readable markdown exhibit and a machine-readable JSON. Generating rather than hand-typing the audit matters for the same reason the bias ledger in chapter 4.3 was generated: when the design changes, the audit changes with it, and a stale audit is worse than none because it certifies a pipeline that no longer exists.
The audit is versioned. This is v1.0, frozen at the point where the thesis eval design is settled, and chapter 9.2 cites it verbatim as the methodology chapter's causal-validity exhibit. If the design changes later, the audit gets a new version and 9.2's citation updates, so there is always exactly one audit of record for any given eval design. Versioning the audit is what lets "the causal audit" be a specific, datable object rather than a vague gesture at rigor.
Keeping the threats as structured records rather than prose also lets the audit answer a question a committee reliably asks: "show me every place internal validity could fail, and where each is handled." Because the validity type is a field, that query is a filter over the JSON, and I can regenerate a one-page view of just the internal-validity threats, or just the bounded (not closed) ones, on demand. An audit that can be sliced by validity type and by closure status is far more useful under questioning than a wall of text, and building it from data is what makes those slices free. The markdown exhibit is the default rendering; the JSON is what makes the exhibit queryable, and both fall out of the same source of truth so they can never disagree.
Lab
The lab assembles causal audit v1.0 from the structured threat list, renders it to markdown and JSON, and writes both to disk. This is the capstone artifact of Part IV.
# file: labs/p4-06-audit/build_audit.py
# /// script
# requires-python = ">=3.11"
# dependencies = []
# ///
"""Build the causal audit v1.0 of the thesis eval design.
Emits a human-readable markdown exhibit (cited verbatim in chapter 9.2) and
a machine-readable JSON. Threats are stored as data so the audit cannot drift
out of sync with the design.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from dataclasses import dataclass, asdict
from datetime import date
from pathlib import Path
@dataclass
class Threat:
id: str
validity: str # internal | external | construct | statistical
path: str # the unwanted path on the DAG
mitigation: str
owner_chapter: str
residual_risk: str
THREATS = [
Threat("T1", "internal",
"TRAIN -> DELTA confounded by judge revision differing pre vs post",
"Freeze one judge (pinned revision + seed) across both evals.",
"3.6 (calibration), 4.3 (diagnosis)",
"API judge could update silently; bounded by E-value in 4.5."),
Threat("T2", "internal",
"Pre-existing KL/optimizer drift misattributed to the reward",
"Interrupted time series (eq 5.1) + random-reward placebo run.",
"4.5 (controls), 7.7 (run matrix)",
"Few checkpoints on a 16GB budget; trend estimate is noisy."),
Threat("T3", "internal",
"Decoding seed / vLLM version / template differ across pre vs post",
"Hold all pipeline invariants fixed; assert config equality in logs.",
"0.4 (envs), 2.5 (vLLM ops), 4.5 (protocol invariants)",
"Thermal/RNG state not fully controllable; treated as noise."),
Threat("T4", "construct",
"Score reflects verbosity/formatting via LEN -> SC, not reasoning",
"Declare estimand; report length-controlled delta; verifiable scorer.",
"3.4 (scorers), 4.3 (mediator vs confounder)",
"Residual judge idiosyncrasy on borderline items."),
Threat("T5", "construct",
"Judge self-preference inflates in-family scores",
"Blind, rubric-based judging; calibrate against gold labels.",
"3.6 (judge calibration)",
"Self-preference not fully eliminable; report gold agreement."),
Threat("T6", "external",
"Contamination: model may have seen frozen eval items",
"Dataset hygiene, decontamination checks, held-out split.",
"3.8 (contamination), 3.9 (frozen suite v1.0)",
"Cannot prove absence of contamination for closed pretraining."),
Threat("T7", "external",
"Effect specific to this item set / seed / machine, not general",
"Multiple seeds; negative-control task; report machine + driver.",
"4.5 (negative control), 7.7 (seeds from power analysis)",
"Single-GPU budget limits seed count; generalization is bounded."),
Threat("T8", "statistical",
"Delta indistinguishable from sampling noise",
"Paired bootstrap over shared items; power-justified item count.",
"3.7 (eval statistics), 7.6 (paired analysis)",
"Small effect sizes need more items than the budget allows."),
Threat("T9", "internal",
"Selection: dropping failed/incomplete runs conditions on a collider",
"Score failures as failures; report completion rate separately.",
"4.3 (collider), 3.10 (eval ops)",
"Some crashes are non-ignorable; documented per run."),
]
DAG_MERMAID = """```mermaid
flowchart LR
M0[model @ pre] --> SC0[score @ pre]
M0 --> TRAIN[[GRPO: do]] --> M1[model @ post] --> SC1[score @ post]
REWARD[verifiable reward] --> TRAIN
JUDGE[frozen judge] --> SC0
JUDGE --> SC1
INV["shared invariants:<br>seed, template, engine, items, machine"] --> SC0
INV --> SC1
SC0 --> DELTA{{reasoning delta}}
SC1 --> DELTA
```"""
def render_md(threats: list[Threat]) -> str:
lines = [
"# Causal audit of the thesis eval design (v1.0)",
f"\nFrozen {date.today().isoformat()}. Cited verbatim in chapter 9.2.",
"\n**Estimand.** Causal effect of GRPO verifiable-reward training on "
"SDA pass@1: E[score | do(train)] - E[score | do(no train)].",
"\n## Pipeline DAG (unrolled in time)\n", DAG_MERMAID,
"\n## Threats to validity\n",
"| ID | Validity | Unwanted path | Mitigation | Owner | Residual risk |",
"|----|----------|---------------|------------|-------|---------------|",
]
for t in threats:
lines.append(f"| {t.id} | {t.validity} | {t.path} | {t.mitigation} "
f"| {t.owner_chapter} | {t.residual_risk} |")
lines += [
"\n## Verdict",
"The delta is identified as a causal effect **iff** every pipeline "
"invariant is held fixed across pre and post (T3), the judge is frozen "
"(T1, T5), the reward is shown active against a placebo (T2), the "
"outcome is specific against a negative control (T7), failures are not "
"filtered (T9), and the paired interval excludes zero (T8). Residual "
"unmeasured confounding is bounded by the E-value in chapter 4.5.",
]
return "\n".join(lines)
def main() -> None:
out = Path("labs/p4-06-audit")
out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
md = render_md(THREATS)
(out / "causal_audit_v1.0.md").write_text(md)
(out / "causal_audit_v1.0.json").write_text(
json.dumps({"version": "1.0", "frozen": date.today().isoformat(),
"threats": [asdict(t) for t in THREATS]}, indent=2))
by_kind = {}
for t in THREATS:
by_kind[t.validity] = by_kind.get(t.validity, 0) + 1
print("threats by validity type:", by_kind)
print(f"total threats enumerated: {len(THREATS)}")
print(f"artifact: {(out / 'causal_audit_v1.0.md').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run labs/p4-06-audit/build_audit.py
The artifacts are labs/p4-06-audit/causal_audit_v1.0.md (the human exhibit, with the DAG and the full threats table) and causal_audit_v1.0.json (the same content as data). Together they are causal audit v1.0. The markdown is written to be dropped straight into the methodology chapter, which is why chapter 9.2 cites it verbatim rather than paraphrasing it.
What you should see. A count of threats by validity type on stdout (four internal, two construct, two external, one statistical, nine in total) and the audit files on disk. Open the markdown and read the threats table as a single argument: every row names a way the reasoning-delta claim could be wrong, the mitigation that closes it, the chapter that owns the mitigation, and, crucially, the residual risk that survives the mitigation. That last column is the honest part, and it is the part a committee will respect, because it shows I know which threats I have fully closed (pipeline invariants, collider filtering) and which I can only bound (silent judge updates, contamination for closed pretraining, seed count under a 16GB budget). The verdict at the bottom states the identification condition as a conjunction: the delta is a causal effect only if every listed mitigation held. If any one of them failed on a given run, the audit tells me exactly which validity type is compromised and sends me to the chapter that has to fix it before I can make the claim. That traceability, from a claim to a threat to a mitigation to a chapter, is the whole point of Part IV, and this document is the proof that the loop of the book is not just a pipeline but an argument I can defend.
Before a committee attacks your result, you should attack it yourself, in writing, and keep the receipts. That document has a name in the empirical sciences (a validity audit) and it has a shape you can steal: draw the causal graph of your experiment, then walk it edge by edge asking "what unwanted path could carry a false signal here, what closes that path, and where in my work is it closed." Do it honestly and you end up with a table whose last column is the uncomfortable one, the residual risk that survives every mitigation, and that column is exactly what earns trust, because it proves you know the difference between a threat you eliminated and one you could only bound. This post shows the full audit of a single-GPU reasoning-model experiment, nine threats across internal, external, construct, and statistical validity, each mapped to the specific fix that handles it, and argues that the audit, not the result, is the real deliverable of a rigorous evaluation.
The RL problem
Everything in Part V is aimed at one payoff: taking an eval score, the same number I spent Parts III and IV learning to trust, and turning it into a training signal. That is what "evals as rewards" means literally. Before I can do that I need the vocabulary of reinforcement learning, and I need it mapped cleanly onto what a language model actually does when it generates text. This chapter builds the frame. It is theory-forward, but I close with a tiny artifact so the abstractions have something to bite on.
The claim I want you to hold through the whole part is this: generating a sequence of tokens is a sequential decision problem, and a verifier that scores the finished sequence is a reward function. Once you believe that sentence, GRPO and RLVR stop looking like exotic machinery and start looking like the obvious thing to do.
Theory
The agent and environment interface
Reinforcement learning studies an agent that interacts with an environment over discrete time steps. At each step the agent observes a state , chooses an action , and one step later receives a scalar reward and lands in a new state . That is the entire contract. Everything the agent controls flows through ; everything the environment controls flows through the pair .
The choice to index the reward as rather than is a convention from Sutton and Barto that I am going to keep, because it saves grief later. The reward is a consequence of the action, so it is emitted by the environment at the same instant the next state is, and it shares that state's index. A trajectory (also called a history or, in the episodic case, an episode) is the interleaved sequence
The agent's behavior is summarized by a policy , a conditional distribution over actions given the state. That is all a policy is: a rule, possibly stochastic, for turning what you see into what you do.
From arbitrary histories to Markov decision processes
In full generality the next state and reward could depend on the entire history. That is unworkable, so we assume the state is a sufficient statistic for the future. Formally, the environment satisfies the Markov property if
The present state carries everything from the past that matters for what comes next. When (2) holds, the whole interaction is described by a single function, the dynamics:
A Markov decision process (MDP) is the tuple where is the dynamics of (3) and is a discount factor I will justify in a moment. From you can derive every other quantity you might want, for instance the expected reward for a state-action pair,
The Markov property is not a law of nature. It is a modeling choice about what you put in the state. If your chosen state leaves out something the future depends on, you have a partially observable problem wearing an MDP costume, and your algorithms will quietly misbehave. Keep that in your pocket; it comes back when I map LLMs onto MDPs, because there the choice is unusually clean.
The reward hypothesis, and why a scalar is enough
Before the return, a word on the reward itself, because the design of is where "evals as rewards" lives. Reinforcement learning rests on what Sutton and Barto call the reward hypothesis: that everything we mean by goals and purposes can be encoded as the maximization of the expected value of a single scalar signal. This is a strong claim and it is easy to underrate. It says you do not get a vector of objectives, you do not get gradients from the environment, you get one number per outcome, and the agent's entire job is to make the expectation of that number large.
For my purposes the reward hypothesis is liberating rather than limiting, because an eval already is a scalarizer. A verifier that returns pass or fail, an Inspect scorer that returns a graded number in , an exact-match check against a reference answer: each collapses a rich, messy transcript down to exactly the one scalar the reward hypothesis asks for. Parts III and IV were, in retrospect, an extended argument that these scalars are trustworthy and causally meaningful. Part V takes them at face value and feeds them in as . The catch, which returns with force in Part VII on reward hacking, is that the agent optimizes the number you actually wrote down, not the intention behind it, so a sloppy scalar buys you a policy that games it.
The return: what the agent actually maximizes
The agent does not maximize the next reward. It maximizes cumulative reward over the future. The return from time is
The single most useful fact about the return is that it obeys a one-step recursion. This recursion is the seed from which every Bellman equation in the next chapter grows, so I will derive it slowly.
Start from the definition (5) and peel off the first term:
The parenthesized series is exactly the definition of , just with every index shifted up by one:
Substituting gives the recursion I will lean on constantly:
This is not an approximation and it does not assume the Markov property. It is pure algebra on the definition of the return. It says the value of the future decomposes into the immediate reward plus a discounted copy of the same problem one step later. Every dynamic-programming and temporal-difference method exploits exactly this self-similarity.
Why discount, and what buys you
The discount factor does two jobs at once. First, it encodes a preference for sooner rewards over later ones, which is often what we actually want. Second, and more technically, it guarantees the infinite sum in (5) converges when rewards never stop. Suppose rewards are bounded, for all . Then
using the geometric-series identity valid for . So any makes the return a finite, well-defined random variable no matter how long the interaction runs. The quantity has a nice reading as an effective horizon: with you are effectively planning about 100 steps ahead, with about 10 steps ahead.
Let . Multiply by : . Solve for to get , hence whenever . The bound (7) then follows by the triangle inequality applied term by term to (5), pulling out of every term.
Episodic versus continuing, unified
Two regimes show up. In continuing tasks the interaction runs forever and you need for the return to make sense. In episodic tasks the interaction breaks into finite episodes that end in a special terminal state, after which everything resets. Games, mazes, and, crucially, a single generated response are episodic.
You might think these need separate math, but there is a standard trick that unifies them. Model episode termination as entering an absorbing state that transitions only to itself and emits reward forever. Then a finite episode
has a return identical to the finite sum , because every added term is zero. With this device I can write the return as the infinite sum (5) in both regimes and never worry about which one I am in again. In episodic tasks I am also free to set , since the sum is finite anyway, and RLHF-style setups almost always do exactly that.
Mapping LLM generation onto an MDP
Now the payoff. I want to see a language model generating a completion as an agent moving through an MDP, because that is the lens that makes reward-based training legible.
Fix a prompt , a token vocabulary , and an autoregressive model . Define the pieces:
- State. The state at step is the prompt plus everything generated so far, . At the state is just the prompt, .
- Action. The action is the next token the model emits. The action space is the vocabulary, on the order of tokens for a modern tokenizer (source: typical Llama-3 and Qwen-2 vocabulary sizes, roughly 128k to 152k entries).
- Policy. The policy is the model's next-token distribution, , computed by a softmax over the output logits. The policy is the model. This identity is the whole reason RL applies to LLMs.
- Transition. The dynamics are deterministic and known: appending token to the state yields with probability one. There is no stochastic environment fighting you. This is a very special MDP.
- Termination. The episode ends when the model emits an end-of-sequence token or hits a length cap . That terminal step is where the interesting reward lives.
- Reward. In the RLVR setting a verifier reads the finished completion and returns a scalar: if the answer checks out, otherwise, or some graded score from an Inspect scorer. Intermediate rewards are usually zero, so the reward is sparse and terminal.
Written out, the return for a generated sequence with a single terminal reward and collapses to something almost embarrassingly simple:
Every token in the sequence shares the credit or blame for that one terminal number. The entire difficulty of policy-gradient methods, and the reason the next four chapters exist, is figuring out how to distribute that single scalar back across the hundreds of token-level decisions that produced it.
There are two legitimate ways to slice the same generation, and they lead to genuinely different algorithms, so do not blur them.
Token-level (fine-grained) MDP. Each token is a separate action, exactly as above. The episode has steps, one per generated token. Value-based and actor-critic methods (PPO) live here, because they want a value estimate at every token position.
Sequence-level (bandit) MDP. Treat the whole completion as a single action drawn from a policy over sequences, . Now there is one step, one action, one reward. This is a contextual bandit (Chapter 5.3), and it is the mental model behind GRPO, which scores whole completions and never asks about per-token value.
Both are correct. The sequence-level view is simpler and, on one 16GB GPU, cheaper, because it dodges a per-token critic. The token-level view gives finer credit assignment at the cost of a second network. Part V walks from one view to the other.
This chapter is my compression of [S&B] Chapter 3, "Finite Markov Decision Processes." Read it alongside: their Sections 3.1 through 3.3 set up the agent-environment interface and the dynamics ; Section 3.3 defines the return and gives the recursion (6); Section 3.4 handles the unified episodic and continuing notation with the absorbing-state trick I used above. When they introduce value functions in Section 3.5, stop and jump to my Chapter 5.2, which picks up exactly there. If you want the return recursion re-derived even more slowly, their Equation 3.9 is my (6).
Tooling
The "tool" for this chapter is not a library, it is a discipline: writing an explicit environment wrapper so that generation and scoring share one interface. Even though a real LLM rollout runs through vLLM (Part II) and an Inspect scorer (Part III), it pays to prototype the MDP structure on something you can print to a terminal. The pattern I use everywhere later is a small class exposing reset(), step(action), and a terminal reward, deliberately mirroring the Gymnasium API so that swapping the toy environment for the real generate-then-verify loop is a drop-in change.
Set up a scratch project with uv, no bare pip anywhere:
uv init rl-foundations
cd rl-foundations
uv add numpy matplotlib
Lab
The artifact for 5.1 is a runnable sequence-generation MDP with a terminal reward, plus a function that computes discounted returns and verifies the recursion (6) numerically. It is intentionally not an LLM; it is the LLM's MDP skeleton with the transformer replaced by a stub, so that the structure is what you inspect. Later chapters bolt learning onto exactly this skeleton.
"""A minimal sequence-generation MDP: the skeleton an LLM rollout fills in.
State = prompt tokens + tokens generated so far (deterministic transition).
Action = next token from a tiny vocabulary.
Reward = terminal only, from a verifier that checks a target property.
Run: uv run python labs/mdp_skeleton.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
VOCAB = ["0", "1", "<eos>"] # tiny toy vocabulary
EOS = VOCAB.index("<eos>")
L_MAX = 6 # length cap = forced termination
class SequenceMDP:
"""Deterministic, known-dynamics MDP over token sequences."""
def __init__(self, prompt: str):
self.prompt = prompt
def reset(self):
self.tokens: list[int] = []
return self._state()
def _state(self):
# The Markov state is the full prefix: prompt + generated tokens.
return (self.prompt, tuple(self.tokens))
def step(self, action: int):
"""Append a token. Return (next_state, reward, done)."""
self.tokens.append(action)
done = action == EOS or len(self.tokens) >= L_MAX
reward = self._verify() if done else 0.0 # sparse, terminal
return self._state(), reward, done
def _verify(self) -> float:
"""Toy verifier: reward 1.0 if the emitted bits (before <eos>)
contain strictly more 1s than 0s, else 0.0."""
bits = [t for t in self.tokens if t != EOS]
ones = sum(1 for t in bits if VOCAB[t] == "1")
zeros = sum(1 for t in bits if VOCAB[t] == "0")
return 1.0 if ones > zeros else 0.0
def rollout(mdp: SequenceMDP, policy, rng: np.random.Generator):
"""Run one episode under a policy that maps state -> action probs."""
state, done = mdp.reset(), False
rewards, actions = [], []
while not done:
probs = policy(state)
action = rng.choice(len(VOCAB), p=probs)
state, reward, done = mdp.step(action)
actions.append(action)
rewards.append(reward)
return actions, rewards
def discounted_return(rewards: list[float], gamma: float) -> float:
"""G_0 = sum_k gamma^k R_{k+1}, computed directly from the definition."""
return sum((gamma ** k) * r for k, r in enumerate(rewards))
def returns_by_recursion(rewards: list[float], gamma: float) -> list[float]:
"""G_t = R_{t+1} + gamma * G_{t+1}, computed backwards. Returns G_t for all t."""
g = 0.0
out = [0.0] * len(rewards)
for t in reversed(range(len(rewards))):
g = rewards[t] + gamma * g
out[t] = g
return out
def uniform_policy(_state):
# A deliberately dumb policy: uniform over the vocabulary.
return np.full(len(VOCAB), 1.0 / len(VOCAB))
if __name__ == "__main__":
rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
mdp = SequenceMDP(prompt="emit-mostly-ones:")
gamma = 1.0
for ep in range(5):
actions, rewards = rollout(mdp, uniform_policy, rng)
seq = "".join(VOCAB[a] for a in actions)
g_def = discounted_return(rewards, gamma)
g_rec = returns_by_recursion(rewards, gamma)[0]
assert abs(g_def - g_rec) < 1e-12, "recursion must match definition"
print(f"ep {ep}: seq={seq:<8} reward={rewards[-1]:.0f} "
f"G0(def)={g_def:.2f} G0(rec)={g_rec:.2f}")
# Empirical success rate of the uniform policy over many episodes.
wins = sum(rollout(mdp, uniform_policy, rng)[1][-1] for _ in range(2000))
print(f"\nuniform-policy success rate: {wins / 2000:.3f} "
f"(this is J(pi) for the dumb policy; RL will push it up)")
What you should see. Five short episodes print with their generated bit-strings and a terminal reward of 0 or 1, and for every episode the return computed from the definition (5) matches the return computed from the recursion (6) to machine precision, which is the assertion firing silently. The final line reports the uniform policy's success rate, roughly to , and that number is , the expected return of the current policy. Every later chapter is a machine for making that number go up. When you eventually swap SequenceMDP for a real vLLM rollout and _verify for an Inspect scorer, none of the surrounding structure changes, and that invariance is the entire point of writing it this way. If you want a timed rollout on the real stack instead of the toy, plug in the vLLM server from Part II and record throughput (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver).
Post angle: "Your chatbot is playing a video game, and you already know the rules." The hook is that text generation is a Markov decision process where tokens are button presses, the screen never lies (transitions are deterministic and known, unlike Mario), and the score only appears at the very end when a grader looks at the whole run. Walk a general reader from the geometric-series intuition for discounting to the punchline that "one number at the end has to teach a thousand keystrokes," which is precisely the credit-assignment problem that the rest of the series solves. The MSI Aegis R2 with a single RTX 5080 16GB is the whole arcade cabinet, which is a fun visual for "you can do this at your desk."
Value functions and Bellman equations
The previous chapter left me with a return, , and a nagging problem: the return is a random variable that I only observe after the fact, at the end of an episode. To reason about a policy before running it, I want to know the return I should expect. That expectation, as a function of state, is the value function, and the self-consistency it must obey is the Bellman equation. This chapter derives both, in the expectation and the optimality forms, and then makes an argument that matters for the rest of the thesis: on one 16GB GPU, learning a value function for a language model is expensive enough, and unreliable enough, that the modern LLM-RL recipes mostly do without one. That absence is not laziness. It is a design choice, and GRPO is its clearest expression.
Theory
Two value functions: and
Fix a policy . The state-value function is the expected return from a state when you follow thereafter:
The subscript on the expectation means every action from onward is drawn from , and every state transition from the dynamics . The action-value function pins down the first action too:
The difference is subtle but everything downstream leans on it. averages over the action you would take in ; commits to action now and only then follows . Their relationship is immediate, because is just averaged under the policy's own action distribution:
The gap between them is the object the whole rest of Part V obsesses over, the advantage , which measures how much better action is than the policy's average behavior in state . By (3), the advantage averages to zero under , which is going to turn out to be the reason baselines are unbiased in Chapter 5.5.
The Bellman expectation equation
Here is the central derivation of the chapter. The value function inherits the return's one-step recursion, and turning that recursion into a statement about expectations gives the Bellman expectation equation.
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TOML parsing error: TOML parse error at line 1, column 57
|
1 | config = { title="Bellman expectation equation for $v_\pi$" }
| ^
invalid escape sequence
expected `b`, `f`, `n`, `r`, `t`, `u`, `U`, `\`, `"`
Original markdown input:
```admonish derivation title="Bellman expectation equation for $v_\pi$"
Begin with the definition (1) and substitute the return recursion $G_t = R_{t+1} + \gamma G_{t+1}$ from Chapter 5.1, Equation (6):
$$
v_\pi(s) = \mathbb{E}_\pi[G_t \mid S_t = s] = \mathbb{E}_\pi\!\left[ R_{t+1} + \gamma G_{t+1} \mid S_t = s \right].
$$
Linearity of expectation splits this into two terms:
$$
v_\pi(s) = \underbrace{\mathbb{E}_\pi[R_{t+1}\mid S_t=s]}_{\text{immediate}} + \gamma\, \underbrace{\mathbb{E}_\pi[G_{t+1}\mid S_t=s]}_{\text{future}}.
$$
Now expand each term by summing over what happens on the first step. The action is drawn from $\pi(a\mid s)$, and then the environment produces $(s', r)$ from $p(s',r\mid s,a)$:
$$
v_\pi(s) = \sum_a \pi(a\mid s) \sum_{s',r} p(s',r\mid s,a)\Big[\, r + \gamma\, \mathbb{E}_\pi[G_{t+1}\mid S_{t+1}=s'] \,\Big].
$$
The step that makes this work is recognizing the inner conditional expectation. By the Markov property, once I know $S_{t+1}=s'$, the past is irrelevant, so $\mathbb{E}_\pi[G_{t+1}\mid S_{t+1}=s'] = v_\pi(s')$ by the very definition (1). Substituting yields the **Bellman expectation equation**:
$$
\boxed{\,v_\pi(s) = \sum_a \pi(a\mid s) \sum_{s',r} p(s',r\mid s,a)\big[\, r + \gamma\, v_\pi(s') \,\big]\,}. \tag{4}
$$
This is a system of linear equations, one per state, relating the value of a state to the values of its successors. Read it as: the value of $s$ is the immediate reward you expect plus the discounted value of wherever you land, averaged over both your own action choice and the environment's response.
```
The same argument, but conditioning on the action instead of averaging over it, gives the action-value form:
Equations (3), (4), and (5) are interchangeable views of the same fixed point. Together they let you compute any value from any other, which is the engine behind policy evaluation.
Backup diagrams
The Bellman equation has a natural picture: value flows backward from successor states to the current state. Sutton and Barto call these backup diagrams. An open circle is a state, a filled circle is a state-action pair. For you branch first on the action (policy) and then on the outcome (dynamics).
graph TD
S["state s (v_π)"] -->|"π(a|s)"| A1["s, a₁"]
S -->|"π(a|s)"| A2["s, a₂"]
A1 -->|"p(s',r|s,a)"| N1["s' (v_π)"]
A1 -->|"p(s',r|s,a)"| N2["s'' (v_π)"]
A2 -->|"p(s',r|s,a)"| N3["s''' (v_π)"]
Reading the diagram top to bottom is one application of (4): sum over the action branches weighted by , then over the outcome branches weighted by , accumulating at the leaves.
The Bellman equation as a fixed point
Equation (4) is not just a relationship, it is a fixed-point equation, and that framing is what guarantees policy evaluation actually converges. Stack the state values into a vector , the expected rewards into , and the policy-induced transition probabilities into a matrix with entries . Then (4) is the linear system
The inverse exists whenever because has spectral radius at most (rows of sum to one, so its eigenvalues lie in the unit disk), which makes nonsingular. For a small MDP you could literally solve (6) by matrix inversion. For anything large you iterate instead, and the reason iteration works is a contraction argument.
Define the Bellman expectation operator acting on a value vector by . For any two value vectors , the immediate-reward terms cancel and
using that is a stochastic matrix, so applying it can only average, never amplify, the max-norm. Thus is a -contraction in the sup norm. By the Banach fixed-point theorem it has a unique fixed point, which is by (4), and iterating from any starting vector converges to it geometrically at rate . The same argument with the optimality operator (the version) proves value iteration converges, which is the algorithm in the lab.
Optimality: the best you can do
Policy evaluation tells you how good a given policy is. Control asks for the best policy. Define the optimal value functions as the pointwise maximum over all policies:
There always exists at least one deterministic policy that attains this maximum in every state simultaneously (a standard result for finite MDPs, [S&B] Section 3.6). The optimal value functions satisfy their own self-consistency, the Bellman optimality equations, and the key change is that averaging over the policy becomes maximizing over the action.
Under an optimal policy you would never deliberately take a suboptimal action, so the value of a state equals the value of its best action rather than the policy-weighted average. Formally, the optimal state value is the best action value available:
Now still obeys a one-step expansion over the dynamics, because whatever action you take, the environment still responds through , and thereafter you act optimally, so the successor's value is :
Substitute the first line into the second to eliminate , or the second into the first to eliminate , giving the two boxed forms:
The only difference from the expectation equations (4) and (5) is the where the policy average used to be. That is what makes the optimality equations nonlinear: you cannot solve them by matrix inversion, you iterate (value iteration) or improve a policy repeatedly (policy iteration). But the payoff is enormous: once you have , the optimal policy is trivial, just act greedily, , with no further planning required. Knowing turns control into a lookup.
From values to a policy: greedy extraction and improvement
The reason value functions are worth all this trouble is that they hand you a better policy almost for free. Given any policy and its action values , define a new policy that acts greedily with respect to them, . The policy improvement theorem ([S&B] Section 4.2) guarantees for every state, with strict improvement somewhere unless was already optimal. The one-line intuition: by construction , so taking the greedy action for one step and then reverting to already does at least as well; unrolling that inequality forever shows dominates outright.
Alternating "evaluate the current policy" with "act greedily on its values" is policy iteration, and it converges to in finitely many steps for a finite MDP. This is the classical control loop, and it is worth seeing clearly precisely so you can appreciate what LLM policy gradients give up: they never form explicitly and never take an over the vocabulary, both because is huge and because a hard would destroy the exploration that Chapter 5.3 argued is essential. Instead they nudge softly in the direction of higher-value actions, which is the policy gradient of Chapter 5.4.
Why LLM-RL mostly avoids learned value functions
Everything above assumes you can represent and learn a value function over the state space. For a tabular gridworld with 50 states, easy. For a language model, the state is an entire token prefix, so the state space is , astronomically large and never revisited. You cannot tabulate it; you must approximate or with a neural network, a critic. That is exactly what PPO does, and it works, but on my hardware it carries three costs I want to name.
First, memory. A critic is typically a second network the size of the policy, or at least a value head plus the backbone. On the MSI Aegis R2 with a single RTX 5080 16GB, the policy, its gradients, its optimizer state, the KV cache for generation, and the reference model for the KL penalty are already competing for the same 16 GB (record the exact peak with nvidia-smi during a PPO step: measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver). Adding a full-size critic and its optimizer state can be the difference between a run that fits and one that OOMs. In Part VI and Part VII I will show the arithmetic in detail; here the point is qualitative: the critic is the most expendable large object in the budget.
Second, the credit-assignment structure is already degenerate in our favor. Recall from Chapter 5.1 that our reward is a single terminal scalar and the transitions are deterministic. A learned per-token value function is trying to estimate, for every token position, the expected final score given the prefix. That is a hard regression target that is noisy early in the sequence and only sharpens near the end. A critic that is wrong (and early in training it is very wrong) injects bias into the policy gradient. The bias-variance tradeoff that justifies a critic in long-horizon control (Chapter 5.6 on GAE) is much weaker when the horizon is one graded answer.
Third, there is a cheaper baseline sitting right there. The only reason we wanted in the first place, as the next two chapters make precise, is to subtract a baseline from the return to reduce variance. But for a fixed prompt you can sample a group of completions and use their mean reward as the baseline, no network required. That is the entire idea of GRPO: replace the learned critic with the empirical mean reward across a group of sampled completions for the same prompt. It is a Monte Carlo baseline, it is unbiased by the argument of Chapter 5.5, and it costs zero extra parameters and zero extra VRAM beyond the samples you were already generating.
Failed with:
TOML parsing error: TOML parse error at line 1, column 20
|
1 | config = { title=""No value function" does not mean "no baseline"" }
| ^
invalid inline table
expected `}`
Original markdown input:
```admonish gotcha title="\"No value function\" does not mean \"no baseline\""
A common misreading is that GRPO throws away the entire value-function machinery. It does not. It throws away the *learned, parameterized* value function and keeps the *role* that value function played, namely a state-dependent baseline $b(s)$ that centers the returns. The Bellman equations of this chapter are still the theoretical backbone: GRPO's group mean is a sample estimate of $v_\pi(s)$ for the prompt state $s = x$, and the group-relative advantage is a sample estimate of the advantage $q_\pi(s,a) - v_\pi(s)$. You are not escaping value functions, you are estimating them the cheapest possible way. That is why I derive the Bellman equations in full even though we will rarely fit a critic: they justify the shortcut.
```
[S&B] Section 3.5 defines and ; Section 3.6 gives the Bellman expectation equation, my (4); Section 3.7 does optimality and the Bellman optimality equation, my (8) and (9), including the existence of a deterministic optimal policy. Chapter 4 then turns these equations into algorithms: Section 4.1 is iterative policy evaluation (solving (4) by repeated backups), Section 4.3 is policy iteration, and Section 4.4 is value iteration (turning (8) into an update rule). The lab below is a stripped-down value iteration, so read Section 4.4 next to it. Do not miss the backup diagrams in Section 3.5; they are the mental model I sketched in mermaid above.
Tooling
The tool here is dynamic programming itself, which you only get to use when the dynamics are known and the state space is small. That is almost never true for an LLM, which is exactly the point: I run value iteration once, on a toy gridworld, so that I can see a converged and then appreciate why I abandon it for language models. Reuse the uv project from Chapter 5.1; no new dependencies beyond NumPy.
Lab
The artifact is a value-iteration solver on a tiny gridworld that prints the converged optimal values and the greedy policy they induce. Watching (8) converge in a handful of sweeps on 12 states is the concrete counterpoint to "you cannot do this on states."
"""Value iteration on a 4x3 gridworld: solve the Bellman optimality
equation (8) by repeated backups until the values stop moving.
This is the thing we CANNOT do for an LLM (state space too large,
dynamics only implicitly known). Seeing it converge here is the point.
Run: uv run python labs/value_iteration.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
# 4 columns x 3 rows. (1,1) is a wall. Terminals: (3,2)=+1, (3,1)=-1.
ROWS, COLS = 3, 4
WALL = (1, 1)
TERMINALS = {(3, 2): +1.0, (3, 1): -1.0}
GAMMA = 0.99
LIVING_REWARD = -0.04 # small step penalty encourages short paths
NOISE = 0.2 # 80% intended move, 10% each perpendicular
ACTIONS = {"N": (0, 1), "S": (0, -1), "E": (1, 0), "W": (-1, 0)}
def in_bounds(c, r):
return 0 <= c < COLS and 0 <= r < ROWS and (c, r) != WALL
def transitions(c, r, a):
"""Return list of (prob, next_state) for taking action a in (c,r)."""
dc, dr = ACTIONS[a]
# perpendicular slips
if a in ("N", "S"):
perps = [ACTIONS["E"], ACTIONS["W"]]
else:
perps = [ACTIONS["N"], ACTIONS["S"]]
outcomes = [(1 - NOISE, (dc, dr))] + [(NOISE / 2, p) for p in perps]
result = []
for prob, (mc, mr) in outcomes:
nc, nr = c + mc, r + mr
if not in_bounds(nc, nr):
nc, nr = c, r # bump into wall/edge: stay put
result.append((prob, (nc, nr)))
return result
def value_iteration(tol=1e-8):
V = {(c, r): 0.0 for c in range(COLS) for r in range(ROWS)
if in_bounds(c, r)}
for term, val in TERMINALS.items():
V[term] = val
sweeps = 0
while True:
delta = 0.0
newV = dict(V)
for (c, r) in V:
if (c, r) in TERMINALS:
continue
# Bellman optimality backup: max over actions.
best = max(
sum(prob * (LIVING_REWARD + GAMMA * V[s2])
for prob, s2 in transitions(c, r, a))
for a in ACTIONS
)
newV[(c, r)] = best
delta = max(delta, abs(best - V[(c, r)]))
V = newV
sweeps += 1
if delta < tol:
break
return V, sweeps
def greedy_policy(V):
policy = {}
for (c, r) in V:
if (c, r) in TERMINALS:
policy[(c, r)] = "*"
continue
policy[(c, r)] = max(
ACTIONS,
key=lambda a: sum(prob * (LIVING_REWARD + GAMMA * V[s2])
for prob, s2 in transitions(c, r, a)),
)
return policy
def render(V, policy):
arrow = {"N": "^", "S": "v", "E": ">", "W": "<", "*": "*"}
for r in reversed(range(ROWS)):
vals, pols = [], []
for c in range(COLS):
if (c, r) == WALL:
vals.append(" ####"); pols.append("#")
else:
vals.append(f"{V[(c, r)]:+6.2f}"); pols.append(arrow[policy[(c, r)]])
print(" ".join(vals) + " " + " ".join(pols))
if __name__ == "__main__":
V, sweeps = value_iteration()
policy = greedy_policy(V)
print(f"converged in {sweeps} sweeps (gamma={GAMMA})\n")
print("optimal values v_* greedy policy pi_*")
render(V, policy)
What you should see. Value iteration converges in on the order of two thousand sweeps at (the exact count prints; the operator contracts at rate per sweep, so reaching the tolerance takes roughly sweeps), and the rendered grid shows optimal values that decay smoothly from the terminal, with a greedy policy of arrows that route around the trap and the wall toward the goal. The lesson is not the gridworld, it is the contrast: this took 12 states and full knowledge of . A language model has neither, which is precisely why the next three chapters build policy-gradient methods that need neither the dynamics nor a tabulated value function, only the ability to sample and to score.
Post angle: "Why the smartest way to train a reasoning model is to refuse to predict the future." Value functions are the classic RL tool for figuring out how good a situation is, and they power the famous algorithms behind game-playing agents. But for a language model on a single desktop GPU, learning that "how good is this half-finished sentence" network is expensive and shaky, so the current crop of reasoning-model recipes (GRPO) skips it and uses a dead-simple trick instead: generate a handful of answers to the same question and grade each one against the average. The essay writes itself around the punchline that sometimes the frontier move is to delete the fanciest component, and that this is only possible because the reward comes from a verifier at the end, not from a critic in the middle.
Bandits, exploration, and sampling
Strip an MDP down to a single state and you get a bandit: no transitions to reason about, no discounting, just the purest form of the one dilemma that never goes away in reinforcement learning. Do I take the action that looks best right now, or do I try something else to learn whether "best" is really best? That is exploration versus exploitation, and it is not a footnote. It is the reason temperature exists as a decoding knob, it is the reason RL fine-tuning can quietly strangle itself through "entropy collapse," and it is why every serious RLVR recipe carries some term whose only job is to keep the policy from getting too sure of itself too soon. This chapter derives the bandit machinery lightly and spends most of its energy on the LLM translation, because the translation is where the money is.
Theory
The -armed bandit
You face actions (arms). Each time you pull arm you receive a reward drawn from a fixed but unknown distribution with mean
This is the action value from Chapter 5.2, collapsed to a single state so I can drop the state argument. If you knew every you would pull forever and be done. You do not, so you estimate. Let be your estimate of at time . The natural estimator is the sample average of the rewards seen so far from arm :
By the law of large numbers as the count of pulls of grows, but only if you keep pulling . That "if" is the whole problem.
Storing every past reward to recompute (2) is wasteful. Let be the estimate after rewards and the -th reward for a given arm. Then
Split the last expression and simplify:
This is the archetypal RL update: new estimate = old estimate + step size × (target − old estimate). The term is a prediction error, and is a step size that shrinks over time. Replace with a constant and you get an exponentially-weighted recency-biased average, which is what you want in a nonstationary problem where drifts. RL fine-tuning of an LLM is emphatically nonstationary, because the policy you are learning changes the distribution of states you visit, so constant step sizes are the norm there.
The exploration-exploitation dilemma and three ways to handle it
If you always pull (pure greedy), you can lock onto an arm that got lucky early and never discover a better one whose first few pulls were unlucky. You need to explore. Three classic mechanisms, in rising order of sophistication:
-greedy. With probability exploit (pull the greedy arm), with probability explore (pull a uniformly random arm). Dead simple, and it works, but it explores indiscriminately: a clearly terrible arm gets pulled as often as a promising-but-uncertain one.
Upper confidence bound (UCB). Explore in proportion to how uncertain you are, not uniformly. Pick
where is the number of pulls of so far and tunes the exploration bonus. Arms pulled rarely have a large bonus and get tried; arms pulled often have a small bonus and are trusted. This "optimism in the face of uncertainty" is provably near-optimal for stationary bandits.
Boltzmann / softmax. Convert estimated values into a probability distribution and sample. This is the one that matters for LLMs, so it gets its own equation:
The parameter is a temperature. As the softmax concentrates all mass on the greedy arm (pure exploitation); as it flattens to uniform (pure exploration). Look at (5) and then look at how a language model picks its next token, and you should feel a jolt of recognition, because they are the same equation.
Regret, lightly
How do you score an exploration strategy? By regret: the cumulative gap between the reward you got and the reward the best arm would have given.
Pure greedy can suffer linear regret: if it locks onto a suboptimal arm, the per-step gap never closes and grows like . Good strategies achieve logarithmic regret, , and the Lai-Robbins result says you cannot do better than logarithmic in general. I will not prove that bound (it is a KL-divergence argument on how many pulls it takes to distinguish two reward distributions), but the intuition is worth stating plainly.
To be confident that a suboptimal arm is really worse than the best arm , you have to pull enough times that its sample-average reward separates from 's by more than the noise. If the reward noise has scale and the value gap is , the standard error of after pulls is , so you need roughly
pulls to be sure. Each of those pulls costs you in regret, contributing to for that arm. The appears once you demand the confidence grow with the horizon (you must keep re-checking as grows), which multiplies the pull count by a factor. The takeaway for LLM training: exploration is not free, but the cost of confirming an arm is bad is bounded, so a little exploration buys a lot of insurance. Refuse to explore and you risk linear regret, which in fine-tuning shows up as a policy that commits early to a mediocre reasoning style and never escapes it.
Temperature as the LLM's exploration knob
A language model produces a vector of logits over the vocabulary at each step. The sampling distribution is a tempered softmax, exactly (5) with the logits playing the role of the value estimates:
So temperature is literally Boltzmann exploration bolted onto next-token prediction. At (greedy decoding, argmax) the model exploits: it always emits its single most likely token, deterministic and safe and often bland. Crank up and the model explores, sampling rarer tokens, which is what you want during RL rollouts because you cannot learn from an answer you never generate. If your rollout temperature is too low, every completion for a given prompt is nearly identical, the reward signal has no variation to learn from, and gradient estimates collapse toward zero. If it is too high, completions are gibberish and rewards are uniformly low for the wrong reason. Choosing rollout temperature is choosing an exploration rate, and it is one of the few genuinely load-bearing hyperparameters in RLVR.
There is a clean derivative fact that makes the knob's behavior precise: temperature is a smooth interpolation between the uniform distribution and the point mass on the argmax.
Consider two tokens with logit gap . Their probability ratio under (7) is
As , the exponent , so the ratio blows up and token 1 takes essentially all the mass: the distribution collapses to the argmax. As , the exponent , so the ratio and the two tokens become equally likely: the distribution flattens toward uniform over the whole vocabulary. Because this holds for every pair of tokens, the entire distribution slides monotonically from a point mass () to uniform () as increases. Temperature is a single dial spanning pure exploitation to pure exploration, which is exactly the bandit tradeoff of (5).
Top-k and top-p: truncation is exploration control too
Temperature is the smooth exploration dial, but in practice LLM decoding usually stacks a second, sharper control on top of it: truncated sampling. Top-k keeps only the highest-probability tokens and renormalizes the softmax over just those, zeroing the rest. Top-p (nucleus) sampling keeps the smallest set of tokens whose cumulative probability first exceeds , so the number of candidates flexes with how peaked the distribution is. Both are, in the bandit language, hard restrictions of the action set before sampling: they forbid the long tail of low-value arms entirely rather than merely making them unlikely.
This matters for RL rollouts in a way that is easy to get wrong. Truncation removes exploration in the tail. If you generate RLVR rollouts with an aggressive top-k of, say, , you have made decoding greedy no matter what temperature says, and every completion for a prompt will be identical, giving you zero learnable variation. Conversely, leaving the full tail open at high temperature can let the policy wander into token sequences it will never actually deploy at inference time, creating a train-inference mismatch. The practical rule I follow is to make rollout sampling match, or be slightly more exploratory than, the decoding settings you will evaluate under, so that the reward signal reflects behavior you actually intend to keep. Truncation is not a rounding detail; it is a second exploration knob sitting in series with temperature.
Contextual bandits: the bridge to full RL
The pure -armed bandit has one state, which is why it is the cleanest place to study exploration. A contextual bandit adds a state that you observe before choosing, but still with no transitions: each round you see a context , pick an action, get a reward, and the context for the next round is drawn independently. Action values become context-dependent, , and the policy becomes a conditional distribution . This is exactly the sequence-level view of LLM generation from Chapter 5.1: the prompt is the context, the whole completion is the single action, the verifier is the reward, and there is no transition to a "next prompt" that your action influenced. GRPO, at its core, treats reasoning-model training as a contextual bandit, which is why the exploration machinery of this chapter, temperature and entropy, is the machinery that actually governs it, and why the value-function and multi-step credit-assignment apparatus of Chapter 5.2 can be sidestepped. The lab in Chapter 5.5 is literally a contextual bandit for that reason.
Entropy, and how RL fine-tuning collapses it
The right way to measure how much a policy explores is its entropy. For the next-token distribution,
Entropy is maximized ( nats) by the uniform distribution and is zero for a deterministic policy. Here is the failure mode that bites RL fine-tuning, and it is worth taking seriously because it is not hypothetical, it is the default trajectory of a naive run.
Policy-gradient training pushes probability mass toward actions that earned high reward. That is the whole idea. But nothing in the bare objective pushes back, so the policy keeps sharpening: the entropy (8) falls, the rollouts for a given prompt become more and more alike, exploration dies, and the model converges prematurely onto whatever reasoning pattern happened to work early. This is entropy collapse. Once entropy is near zero the gradient signal starves, because with no variation among sampled completions there is no advantage to learn from (Chapter 5.5 makes "advantage needs variation" precise). The model gets stuck, sometimes at a genuinely mediocre policy, and no amount of further training rescues it because it can no longer generate the alternatives it would need to discover something better.
The reason entropy collapse is dangerous is that the reward curve can look fine while it happens. Reward climbs, then plateaus, and you shrug and call it converged, when actually the policy has gone deterministic and simply cannot improve. Always log the mean per-token entropy (8) of your rollouts as a first-class metric next to reward. Two standard countermeasures, both of which you will meet again in the GRPO and PPO chapters:
- Entropy bonus. Add to the objective so the optimizer is paid to stay uncertain. This is the softmax-policy analogue of -greedy: a direct incentive to keep exploring.
- KL penalty to a reference policy. Add to anchor the trained policy near the original model, which was high-entropy and fluent. This both prevents collapse and stops the policy from drifting into degenerate reward-hacking text.
On the baseline machine, entropy and KL are cheap scalars to compute from logits you already have, so there is no excuse not to log them (record the actual entropy trajectory of your first GRPO run: measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver).
[S&B] Chapter 2 is the canonical bandit chapter. Section 2.2 is the -greedy setup, Section 2.4 derives the incremental mean, my (3); Section 2.6 covers nonstationarity and constant step sizes; Section 2.7 is UCB, my (4); Section 2.8 is the gradient-bandit / softmax view that anticipates (5) and the whole policy-gradient story of Chapter 5.4. Read Section 2.3 on the ten-armed testbed alongside the lab below, which is a miniature of it. For a gentler on-ramp, [GAIA] Chapter 10 walks through reinforcement learning with a slot-machine framing and Q-learning intuition and almost no calculus, which is a nice way to build the exploration-exploitation feel before returning to Sutton and Barto's formal treatment.
Tooling
The tool is the simulator: a ten-armed testbed you can run in a second to feel the difference between exploiting and exploring, and a temperature sweep that connects the bandit softmax directly to LLM decoding. Reuse the uv project from Chapter 5.1 (uv add numpy matplotlib if you have not already).
Lab
Two artifacts. First, an -greedy vs greedy comparison on a ten-armed bandit that prints how often pure greedy locks onto the wrong arm. Second, a temperature sweep over a fixed logit vector that prints entropy as a function of , making (7) and (8) concrete and previewing entropy collapse.
"""Two demos in one file.
(A) 10-armed bandit: greedy vs epsilon-greedy, averaged over runs.
Shows that refusing to explore can lock onto a suboptimal arm.
(B) Temperature sweep: entropy of a tempered softmax vs tau, the
exploration knob an LLM exposes as its sampling temperature.
Run: uv run python labs/bandit_and_temperature.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
# ---------- (A) ten-armed testbed ----------
def run_bandit(epsilon: float, steps: int, rng: np.random.Generator):
k = 10
q_star = rng.normal(0.0, 1.0, size=k) # true means
best = int(np.argmax(q_star))
Q = np.zeros(k) # estimates
N = np.zeros(k) # pull counts
optimal_pulls = 0
for t in range(steps):
if rng.random() < epsilon:
a = rng.integers(k) # explore
else:
a = int(np.argmax(Q)) # exploit
reward = rng.normal(q_star[a], 1.0) # noisy reward
N[a] += 1
Q[a] += (reward - Q[a]) / N[a] # incremental mean, eq (3)
optimal_pulls += (a == best)
return optimal_pulls / steps
def bandit_demo(runs=500, steps=1000):
rng = np.random.default_rng(1)
for eps in (0.0, 0.01, 0.1):
rate = np.mean([run_bandit(eps, steps, rng) for _ in range(runs)])
label = "greedy" if eps == 0 else f"eps-greedy(e={eps})"
print(f"{label:<22} optimal-arm rate over {steps} steps: {rate:.3f}")
# ---------- (B) temperature = LLM exploration knob ----------
def softmax(z, tau):
z = z / tau
z = z - z.max() # numerical stability
e = np.exp(z)
return e / e.sum()
def entropy(p):
p = p[p > 0]
return float(-(p * np.log(p)).sum()) # nats, eq (8)
def temperature_demo():
# A plausible next-token logit vector: one clear favorite, a few
# contenders, a long tail. Same shape an LLM produces per step.
logits = np.array([6.0, 5.2, 4.8, 3.0, 2.5, 1.0, 0.5, 0.0, -1.0, -2.0])
h_max = np.log(len(logits))
print(f"\nmax possible entropy (uniform): {h_max:.3f} nats")
for tau in (0.1, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 5.0):
p = softmax(logits, tau)
top = p.max()
print(f"tau={tau:<4} entropy={entropy(p):.3f} nats "
f"P(argmax)={top:.3f}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
print("=== (A) exploration on a 10-armed bandit ===")
bandit_demo()
print("\n=== (B) temperature sweep (LLM decoding knob) ===")
temperature_demo()
What you should see. In part (A), pure greedy () lands on the optimal arm markedly less often than over 1000 steps, typically well under it, because greedy sometimes commits to an arm that got a lucky first pull and never re-checks, the linear-regret trap made visible. In part (B), entropy is tiny at with near 1 (this is what a collapsed policy looks like) and climbs steadily toward the uniform ceiling of nats as grows, with falling toward . That single monotone column of entropies is exactly the dial you turn when you set rollout temperature for RL fine-tuning: too low and you have preemptively collapsed, too high and you are sampling noise. Keeping that dial in the productive middle, and logging entropy so you notice when training pushes it down on its own, is most of what "exploration" means in practice for a reasoning model.
Post angle: "The one knob that decides whether your AI keeps learning or gives up." Temperature is usually explained as a creativity slider for chatbots, but the deeper story is that it is a fifty-year-old idea from slot-machine math, the explore-versus-exploit dilemma, wearing a modern coat. When you train a reasoning model, the model is constantly tempted to become a know-it-all that always gives the same answer, and the moment it does, it stops being able to learn, because it can no longer surprise itself into finding a better answer. The essay connects casino odds to why a training run can look healthy on the reward chart while quietly going brain-dead (entropy collapse), and why the fix is to literally pay the model to stay a little unsure of itself.
The policy gradient theorem
This is the load-bearing chapter of Part V. Everything before it was scaffolding; everything after it, REINFORCE, actor-critic, PPO, GRPO, is a variation on the single result I derive here. The policy gradient theorem tells you how to nudge the parameters of a stochastic policy so that its expected reward goes up, and it does so with a formula that, astonishingly, does not require you to differentiate through the environment or the reward. That one property, "environment-gradient-free," is the entire reason you can train a language model against a black-box verifier, a unit-test suite, or a human thumbs-up. If the theorem needed a differentiable reward, RLVR would be impossible, because "did this proof check out" is not a differentiable function of the tokens. It needs only that you can sample and score. Let me earn that claim carefully, twice, by two different routes.
Theory
Parameterized policies
Replace the lookup-table policy of earlier chapters with a differentiable function of parameters . For a language model, is the network weights and the policy is the tempered softmax over logits from Chapter 5.3,
where is the logit vector the network computes for state (context) . The only thing I will use about is that it is differentiable in and that it is a proper probability distribution, for every . That normalization identity is quietly the source of the whole theorem, as you will see.
The objective
I want to maximize expected return. Write a full trajectory as and its return as . The probability of a trajectory under the policy factorizes into the initial-state distribution, the policy, and the environment dynamics:
The objective is the expected return over trajectories the policy induces:
I want . The obstacle is that sits inside , which contains the environment term that I do not know and cannot differentiate. The log-derivative trick makes the obstacle vanish.
The log-derivative trick
For any distribution that is differentiable in , the gradient of the distribution relates to the gradient of its log by the chain rule applied to :
The right-hand identity is the whole trick. It converts a gradient of a probability into that probability times a gradient of a log-probability, and the "that probability times" part is exactly the weight an expectation already carries. So a gradient of an expectation becomes an expectation of a gradient, which is something you can estimate by sampling.
Now push (4) through the objective. This is the trajectory route to the theorem, and it is the one that makes the environment-gradient-free property blindingly obvious.
Differentiate (3) and apply the log-derivative trick (4) with :
Now expand using the factorization (2). Taking logs turns the product into a sum:
Take the gradient with respect to . Here is the pivotal observation: the initial-state term and every environment term do not depend on . The environment is what it is; the parameters only touch the policy. So their gradients are exactly zero and they drop out:
Substituting back gives the trajectory form of the policy gradient theorem:
Stare at (5). To estimate the gradient you need only: (i) the ability to sample trajectories from the policy, and (ii) a scalar reward for each one. You never differentiate the reward. You never differentiate the environment. You never even need to know the environment dynamics. The gradient lives entirely in , which is the gradient of the model's own log-probabilities, something autograd hands you for free.
Why the environment-gradient-free form is the entire reason RLHF exists
Let me hammer this, because it is the thesis in miniature. Suppose the theorem had come out as , requiring the gradient of the reward with respect to the parameters. Then you could only train against rewards that are differentiable functions of the model output. But the rewards I care about are things like:
- Does this generated Python program pass its unit tests? (A boolean from a subprocess.)
- Does this math answer equal the reference after symbolic simplification? (A SymPy call.)
- Did an Inspect scorer mark this transcript correct? (A grader, possibly another model.)
- Did a human prefer response A over response B? (A click.)
None of these is a differentiable function of the tokens. Every one of them is a sampling-plus-scoring black box. Equation (5) says that is exactly, and only, what you need. The policy gradient theorem is the mathematical permission slip that lets an eval score, the object of Parts III and IV, stand in as and drive learning. That is why I can call this book "Evals as Rewards" and mean it literally: the theorem is what makes the substitution legal.
A frequent confusion: since is inside the expectation in (5), doesn't its dependence on matter? No. For a fixed sampled trajectory , the number is just a scalar coefficient multiplying . The trajectory's -dependence was already fully accounted for by the log-derivative trick when it turned into . You do not, and must not, additionally backprop through . In code this means you compute the reward under torch.no_grad() (or in a separate process entirely, like a verifier), detach it, and use it purely as a weight on the log-prob gradient. Backpropagating through a verifier would be both wrong and, for a subprocess unit-test runner, impossible.
The second route: the episodic policy gradient theorem via value functions
Route 1 is the cleanest derivation and the one that matters most for LLMs, but Sutton and Barto reach the same destination from the value-function side, and seeing both routes converge is reassuring and also reveals the structure that actor-critic methods exploit. I will derive the episodic form, where the objective is the value of the start state, .
Recall from Chapter 5.2 that . Differentiate with the product rule:
The first term is what we want (it contains ); the second term is a nuisance because also depends on . But , and here and do not depend on (same environment-gradient-free fact as route 1), so
The nuisance term is itself a discounted copy of at the next state. So the recursion for has the same self-similar shape as the Bellman equation. Define the shorthand for the "local" first term. Then
The double sum is exactly the one-step state-transition probability under the policy, call it . Unroll the recursion repeatedly, substituting the formula into itself, and the gradient becomes a sum of evaluated at every state, weighted by the (discounted) probability of reaching that state from in any number of steps:
where is the (unnormalized) discounted state-visitation measure. Writing for the normalized on-policy distribution and folding the constant into a proportionality gives the policy gradient theorem in its canonical Sutton and Barto form:
Finally, convert (6) to the sampling-friendly expectation form with the log-derivative trick once more:
Equations (5) and (7) are the same theorem seen from two sides. Route 1 gives the trajectory-level form with the full return as the weight; route 2 gives the state-action form with the action value as the weight. They are reconciled by noting that is an unbiased single-sample estimate of , which is the observation the next chapter builds REINFORCE on. The proportionality constant in (6) and (7) is the average episode length in the episodic case and is in the continuing case with the right normalization; in practice it is absorbed into the learning rate, so I will stop writing and write from here on.
The score function for a softmax policy
The abstract becomes concrete and cheap for the softmax policy (1), and since the lab below and every real LLM training step compute exactly this quantity, it is worth deriving once. The result is one of the most-used gradients in all of machine learning, and it is startlingly clean.
Let the logits be and . I want , the sensitivity of the chosen action's log-probability to each logit. Write and differentiate the two pieces.
The first piece: , the indicator that is the action taken. The second piece, the log-normalizer, differentiates to the softmax itself:
Subtracting,
which in vector form is , "onehot of the action minus the probability vector." Chain this through the network with to get ; the factor is the part unique to the policy-gradient loss, and it is exactly what appears in the lab's grad_log_pi. Read (8) intuitively: taking action pushes its own logit up (the from the onehot) and pushes every logit down in proportion to its current probability (the ), which is precisely the "make what I did more likely, make everything else a little less likely" behavior REINFORCE will scale by the reward.
Notice that the expected value of (8) under is , the score-function-integrates-to-zero identity I will need constantly in Chapter 5.5. It falls out of the softmax gradient for free.
On-policy by construction, and the crack that PPO widens
One more property of (5) and (7) deserves flagging now, because it is the seam along which every later algorithm is built. The expectation is taken over trajectories sampled from , the same policy whose gradient you are computing. The estimator is on-policy: it is only valid for data generated by the current parameters. The instant you take a gradient step, changes, and strictly speaking your previous rollouts are stale, drawn from a policy that no longer exists.
For a single ascent step per batch of rollouts this is fine, and it is exactly what REINFORCE does. But generating rollouts is the expensive part on one GPU, all that vLLM decoding, and you would love to take several optimizer steps on one batch of samples to amortize the cost. Doing so violates the on-policy assumption. The repair is importance sampling: reweight each sample by the ratio of the new policy's probability to the old one's,
which corrects the expectation back to being over . That ratio (9) is the protagonist of the PPO and GRPO chapters: PPO clips it to keep the reused updates from wandering too far from the sampling policy, and GRPO inherits the same ratio. So the humble on-policy caveat here is the reason trust-region methods exist at all. Keep (9) in mind; it is the first thing that changes when you move past pure REINFORCE.
[S&B] Chapter 13 is the home of this material. Section 13.1 motivates policy parameterization; Section 13.2 states and proves the policy gradient theorem, which is my route 2, Equation (6), and their proof is the unrolling I did in the second derivation box; Section 13.3 turns it into REINFORCE via the log-derivative step, my (7), and is the direct lead-in to Chapter 5.5. The trajectory derivation (route 1, my (5)) is the form more common in the deep-RL and RLHF literature; Schulman's writing and the PPO lineage use it, and it is the one to keep in mind when you read the GRPO chapter. If you read only one section, read 13.2 with my second box open beside it.
Tooling
The tool is autograd plus a sanity check. The single most valuable habit when implementing any policy-gradient method is to verify the estimator (5) against a brute-force finite-difference gradient on a tiny problem, because a sign error or a missing log is otherwise invisible: the loss still goes down sometimes, just for the wrong reasons. I reuse the uv project from Chapter 5.1 and add nothing; NumPy is enough to make the point without dragging in a deep-learning framework.
Lab
The artifact numerically confirms the policy gradient theorem. I build a one-step (bandit) softmax policy over three actions with a fixed reward per action, compute the analytic policy gradient estimator from (5) by sampling, and compare it against a finite-difference estimate of the true . Agreement to a couple of decimals is the proof, in code, that "sample the log-prob gradient and weight by reward" really does climb .
"""Numerically verify the policy gradient theorem on a 3-armed softmax
bandit. Compare the score-function (log-derivative) estimator, eq (5),
against a finite-difference estimate of the true gradient of J(theta).
If they agree, the theorem's sampling estimator is correctly implemented.
Run: uv run python labs/policy_gradient_check.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
REWARDS = np.array([1.0, -0.5, 2.0]) # fixed reward per action (the "verifier")
N_ACTIONS = len(REWARDS)
def softmax(theta):
z = theta - theta.max()
e = np.exp(z)
return e / e.sum()
def J(theta):
"""True objective: expected reward = sum_a pi(a) R(a).
Here the environment is trivial so we can compute J in closed form,
which is what lets us finite-difference it as ground truth."""
return float(softmax(theta) @ REWARDS)
def finite_difference_grad(theta, eps=1e-6):
"""Ground-truth gradient of J via central differences."""
g = np.zeros_like(theta)
for i in range(len(theta)):
d = np.zeros_like(theta)
d[i] = eps
g[i] = (J(theta + d) - J(theta - d)) / (2 * eps)
return g
def grad_log_pi(theta, a):
"""d/dtheta log pi(a): for a softmax, this is (onehot(a) - pi)."""
pi = softmax(theta)
onehot = np.zeros_like(theta)
onehot[a] = 1.0
return onehot - pi
def score_function_grad(theta, n_samples, rng):
"""Monte Carlo estimate of nabla J via eq (5): average of
R(a) * grad_log_pi(a) over sampled actions."""
pi = softmax(theta)
est = np.zeros_like(theta)
for _ in range(n_samples):
a = rng.choice(N_ACTIONS, p=pi)
reward = REWARDS[a] # scalar, detached
est += reward * grad_log_pi(theta, a) # weight log-prob grad by reward
return est / n_samples
if __name__ == "__main__":
rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
theta = np.array([0.3, -0.2, 0.1])
fd = finite_difference_grad(theta)
print(f"finite-difference grad (ground truth): {fd}")
for n in (100, 1_000, 100_000):
sf = score_function_grad(theta, n, rng)
err = np.linalg.norm(sf - fd)
print(f"score-function grad, n={n:>7}: {sf} ||err||={err:.4f}")
# Take a few gradient-ascent steps and watch J climb.
print("\ngradient ascent on J using the score-function estimator:")
lr = 0.2
for step in range(6):
g = score_function_grad(theta, 20_000, rng)
theta = theta + lr * g
print(f"step {step}: J(theta)={J(theta):.4f} pi={softmax(theta).round(3)}")
What you should see. The score-function estimator (5) converges to the finite-difference ground truth as the sample count grows: the error norm shrinks from order at 100 samples to order or better at samples, the classic Monte Carlo shrinkage. That convergence is the policy gradient theorem verified: two completely different computations, one differentiating the reward-weighted log-prob and the other perturbing and measuring , agree. The final block does gradient ascent and you watch climb toward while the policy concentrates on action index 2, the highest-reward arm. Notice what the estimator never touched: the reward vector was used only as a scalar multiplier, never differentiated. Swap REWARDS for a call to a unit-test runner or an Inspect scorer and the exact same code trains a language model. That substitutability is the whole game.
Post angle: "The one equation that lets you train an AI on things you can't do calculus on." Normally, to teach a neural network you need a smooth, differentiable measure of wrongness, which is why so much of AI is quietly limited to tasks you can express as a tidy math function. The policy gradient theorem is the escape hatch: it proves you can improve a model using nothing but the ability to try something and get a yes-or-no score back, even when that score comes from running code, checking a proof, or a person clicking a button. The essay's arc is that a single algebra move (a trick for turning the gradient of a probability into the probability times the gradient of its logarithm) is what separates "AI that can only optimize smooth math" from "AI you can train against a real-world grader," and that this is the hidden hinge under every reasoning model shipped in the last two years.
REINFORCE and variance reduction
The policy gradient theorem of Chapter 5.4 gave me an exact expression for , but it is an expectation, and I cannot evaluate it in closed form for anything real. I have to estimate it by sampling. The moment you estimate a gradient by sampling, you inherit a new adversary that has nothing to do with bias and everything to do with noise: variance. REINFORCE is the most direct Monte Carlo estimator of the policy gradient, and left raw it is so high-variance as to be nearly useless. This chapter derives REINFORCE, then derives the three standard variance-reduction moves, reward-to-go, baselines, and the advantage, proving that each one leaves the gradient unbiased while shrinking its variance. The baseline unbiasedness proof is the theoretical seed of GRPO, so I give it in full. The lab is the payoff of the whole part: a REINFORCE agent on a toy task with a matplotlib figure showing the gradient-variance curve collapse the instant a baseline is switched on.
Theory
REINFORCE: Monte Carlo policy gradient
Start from the trajectory form of the theorem, Chapter 5.4 Equation (5). Sample trajectories from the current policy and replace the expectation with its sample mean:
This is REINFORCE (Williams, 1992). The update rule is gradient ascent, . In words: for each sampled trajectory, push up the log-probability of every action it took, scaled by the trajectory's total return. Good trajectories make all their actions more likely; bad trajectories make all their actions less likely. It is beautifully simple and, as stated, badly behaved, for a reason I want to make precise before fixing it.
The trouble is that the single scalar multiplies the log-prob gradient of every action in the trajectory, including actions that had nothing to do with the outcome. If one lucky reward inflates , REINFORCE dutifully reinforces every token that happened to be in that sequence, noise and signal alike. The estimator is unbiased, but its variance grows with trajectory length and with the scale of the returns, and for a language model with hundreds of tokens per episode that variance is enormous.
Reward-to-go: the first free variance cut
The first fix follows from causality: an action cannot influence rewards that were already collected before it was taken. So weighting by the full return , which includes rewards from steps , is adding pure noise. Replace the full return with the reward-to-go, the return accumulated from step onward.
Let be the reward-to-go from step . I claim the past rewards contribute zero to the gradient, so dropping them changes nothing in expectation. Consider a single past reward with and the action term at step . Its contribution to the gradient is
Condition on everything up to and including step (which fixes and the state ). Inside that conditioning, is a constant, and is still drawn fresh from . The expectation of the score function under its own distribution is zero, a fact I prove in the next box:
By the tower property, the whole term vanishes. Since this holds for every past reward with , replacing by the reward-to-go at each step leaves the gradient unbiased:
We removed variance (the noisy past rewards) at zero cost in bias. That is the ideal kind of trade, and it is worth internalizing that for a terminal-reward LLM task with , the reward-to-go equals the single final reward for every , so reward-to-go and full-return coincide and this particular cut buys nothing. It buys a great deal in dense-reward or long-horizon tasks, which is why I keep it in the general form.
The score function integrates to zero
The identity I just used is the linchpin of every variance-reduction result in RL, so I prove it standalone.
For any state and any ,
Apply the log-derivative trick (Chapter 5.4, Eq. 4) to each term:
The gradient and the sum swap because the action set is finite and fixed. The last step is the punchline: probabilities sum to one, a constant, whose gradient is zero. This single fact, that the policy is normalized, is why you can subtract things from the return without biasing the gradient. Hold onto it for the baseline proof.
Baselines: subtracting a number for free
Reward-to-go still leaves the returns on an arbitrary scale. If every completion for a prompt scores between and , REINFORCE reinforces all of them strongly (every is large and positive), even though relative to each other some are worse. What matters for learning is not the absolute return but how a return compares to what you expected. So subtract a baseline , a number that can depend on the state but not on the action taken:
The remarkable fact is that any action-independent baseline leaves the gradient exactly unbiased, so you may choose purely to minimize variance.
I need to show the baseline contributes zero to the gradient in expectation, i.e.
Look at a single step and condition on the state (which fixes , since the baseline depends only on the state). Pull the constant out of the inner expectation over the action:
By Equation (3), the inner expectation is zero. So the whole term is , for every . Summing over , the baseline's total contribution is zero, hence (4) is unbiased for any function that does not depend on the action.
This is the theorem GRPO stands on. GRPO samples a group of completions for one prompt, computes each completion's reward , and uses the group mean as the baseline. Because depends only on the prompt state, not on which specific completion you are updating, the proof above says subtracting it is unbiased. The group-relative advantage (usually also divided by the group's standard deviation) is precisely a baseline-subtracted return, and no learned value network is anywhere in sight. Everything special about GRPO is contained in this box plus the choice "let the baseline be the group mean."
Why a baseline reduces variance, and the optimal choice
Unbiasedness says the baseline does not hurt; now I show a good baseline helps. Write the per-step estimator as . Its variance, for a scalar parameter to keep the algebra clean, is , and the second term is fixed (it is the true gradient squared, baseline-independent by the proof above). So minimizing variance means minimizing .
Let . Minimize over :
This is a quadratic in . Differentiate and set to zero:
The optimal baseline is a -weighted average of the return, which is close to the expected return but weighted by the squared score. In practice people use the plainer choice , the value function, because it is intuitive ("compare the return to what you expected from this state") and nearly optimal. That single substitution, , is what turns REINFORCE into an actor-critic method (Chapter 5.6): the "critic" is just a learned estimate of the variance-reducing baseline.
Where the variance actually comes from
It helps to name the two sources of noise in the REINFORCE estimator separately, because the baseline attacks one of them and reward-to-go attacks the other. The law of total variance gives the decomposition cleanly.
Consider the single-step estimator with , and decompose its variance by conditioning on the action . The law of total variance states, for any random variables,
The first term is the variance within a fixed action: for a fixed , is fixed, so this is , the spread of the return caused by the stochastic environment and future actions. Reward-to-go attacks this term by stripping out the irrelevant past rewards that inflate . The second term is the variance across actions: how much the mean estimate swings as the sampled action changes. This is the term the baseline attacks. By centering the return on , the factor becomes the advantage , which is small in magnitude and averages to zero, so its spread across actions shrinks. The two variance-reduction tricks are not redundant, they target the two orthogonal terms of (6), which is why real systems use both.
Advantage as the general form
Put reward-to-go and a value baseline together. With and recalling that , the weight on the log-prob gradient becomes, in expectation,
the advantage from Chapter 5.2. The advantage is the general form of the policy gradient weight, and every method in the rest of Part V is a different way of estimating :
- REINFORCE with baseline estimates by with a running average or the value function.
- Actor-critic and GAE (5.6) estimate with a learned critic and bootstrapping.
- PPO (5.7) uses the same but clips the update to stay in a trust region.
- GRPO (5.8) estimates by across a group, no critic at all.
Seen this way, the whole progression from REINFORCE to GRPO is one question asked repeatedly: what is the cheapest low-variance unbiased estimate of the advantage that fits in 16 GB?
[S&B] Section 13.3 is REINFORCE, my (1) and (2); Section 13.4 adds the baseline and states the unbiasedness result, my (4) and the proof box; Section 13.5 is REINFORCE-with-baseline as a stepping stone to actor-critic, my (7). Their Figure 13.2 shows the variance reduction empirically, which is exactly what the lab below reproduces from scratch. For the LLM translation, [BRM] Chapter 6 sidebars connect the advantage form (8) to how reasoning-model training frames the reward-minus-baseline signal per completion; read those sidebars after the lab, when the group-mean-baseline idea from the GRPO seed box is fresh, and the connection to will click.
Tooling
The tooling is matplotlib for the artifact plus NumPy for the agent, both already in the uv project from Chapter 5.1. I deliberately avoid a deep-learning framework here so that every line of the gradient estimator is visible and the variance measurement is unambiguous. The one methodological tool worth naming is measuring gradient variance directly: draw many independent gradient estimates at a fixed and take the variance across them, rather than trusting the loss curve to tell you whether your estimator is noisy. That measurement is the figure.
Lab
The task is a contextual bandit that stands in for one-step LLM generation: a "prompt" (context) is one of a few categories, the "action" is one of several tokens, and a verifier rewards the correct token for each context. I train a softmax policy with REINFORCE, once with no baseline and once with a running-mean baseline, and at each step I estimate the variance of the gradient across a fresh minibatch. The artifact is a matplotlib figure with two panels: reward-over-time (both variants learn) and gradient-variance-over-time (the baseline variant is dramatically lower). That variance gap, at equal final reward, is the entire lesson of the chapter made visual.
"""REINFORCE on a contextual bandit (a stand-in for one-step LLM
generation), with and without a baseline. Measure the variance of the
gradient estimator at each step and plot it. Artifact: reinforce_variance.png
Context = "prompt" category. Action = "token". Reward = 1 if the action
is the correct token for that context, else 0 (a toy verifier).
Run: uv run python labs/reinforce_variance.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
import matplotlib
matplotlib.use("Agg") # headless: write a file, no display
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
N_CONTEXTS = 4
N_ACTIONS = 5
CORRECT = np.array([0, 2, 4, 1]) # the "right token" per context
STEPS = 400
BATCH = 32 # completions sampled per step
LR = 0.5
SEED = 0
def softmax_rows(logits):
z = logits - logits.max(axis=1, keepdims=True)
e = np.exp(z)
return e / e.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
def reward(context, action):
return 1.0 if action == CORRECT[context] else 0.0
def grad_log_pi(probs_row, action):
"""d/dlogits log pi(action) for a softmax = onehot(action) - probs."""
g = -probs_row.copy()
g[action] += 1.0
return g
def train(use_baseline: bool, rng):
# Policy parameters: one logit vector per context.
theta = np.zeros((N_CONTEXTS, N_ACTIONS))
baseline = np.zeros(N_CONTEXTS) # running mean reward per context
rewards_hist, gradvar_hist = [], []
for step in range(STEPS):
probs = softmax_rows(theta)
# Sample a batch of (context, action, reward).
contexts = rng.integers(N_CONTEXTS, size=BATCH)
batch_reward = 0.0
# Accumulate per-sample gradients so we can measure their spread.
per_sample_grads = np.zeros((BATCH, N_CONTEXTS * N_ACTIONS))
grad_sum = np.zeros_like(theta)
for i, c in enumerate(contexts):
a = rng.choice(N_ACTIONS, p=probs[c])
r = reward(c, a)
batch_reward += r
advantage = r - (baseline[c] if use_baseline else 0.0)
g = np.zeros_like(theta)
g[c] = advantage * grad_log_pi(probs[c], a)
grad_sum += g
per_sample_grads[i] = g.ravel()
if use_baseline:
# Update running-mean baseline for this context (eq: b ~ E[G]).
baseline[c] += 0.05 * (r - baseline[c])
rewards_hist.append(batch_reward / BATCH)
# Variance of the gradient estimator: trace of the covariance of
# the per-sample gradients (total variance across all components).
gradvar_hist.append(float(per_sample_grads.var(axis=0).sum()))
# Gradient ASCENT on J.
theta += LR * grad_sum / BATCH
return np.array(rewards_hist), np.array(gradvar_hist)
def smooth(x, k=15):
kernel = np.ones(k) / k
return np.convolve(x, kernel, mode="valid")
if __name__ == "__main__":
rng = np.random.default_rng(SEED)
r_no, v_no = train(use_baseline=False, rng=rng)
rng = np.random.default_rng(SEED) # same seed: fair comparison
r_yes, v_yes = train(use_baseline=True, rng=rng)
print(f"final reward (no baseline): {r_no[-50:].mean():.3f}")
print(f"final reward (baseline) : {r_yes[-50:].mean():.3f}")
print(f"mean grad-var (no baseline): {v_no.mean():.4f}")
print(f"mean grad-var (baseline) : {v_yes.mean():.4f}")
print(f"variance reduction factor : {v_no.mean() / max(v_yes.mean(), 1e-9):.2f}x")
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(11, 4.2))
ax1.plot(r_no, alpha=0.35, color="tab:red")
ax1.plot(r_yes, alpha=0.35, color="tab:blue")
ax1.plot(range(len(smooth(r_no))), smooth(r_no), color="tab:red",
label="no baseline")
ax1.plot(range(len(smooth(r_yes))), smooth(r_yes), color="tab:blue",
label="with baseline")
ax1.set_title("Reward over training (both learn)")
ax1.set_xlabel("step"); ax1.set_ylabel("mean batch reward"); ax1.legend()
ax2.plot(v_no, color="tab:red", alpha=0.8, label="no baseline")
ax2.plot(v_yes, color="tab:blue", alpha=0.8, label="with baseline")
ax2.set_title("Gradient-estimator variance (lower is better)")
ax2.set_xlabel("step"); ax2.set_ylabel("trace of grad covariance")
ax2.set_yscale("log"); ax2.legend()
fig.tight_layout()
fig.savefig("reinforce_variance.png", dpi=130)
print("\nwrote reinforce_variance.png")
What you should see. The printed summary reports that both variants reach essentially the same final reward (both solve the toy task, climbing toward a mean batch reward near ), while the mean gradient variance with a baseline is several times lower than without, a variance-reduction factor typically in the range of roughly 2x to 5x on this problem with these seeds. The saved figure reinforce_variance.png makes it unmistakable: the left panel shows two reward curves rising to the same ceiling, so the baseline costs nothing in final performance, and the right panel, on a log scale, shows the blue (baseline) variance curve sitting well below the red (no-baseline) one for the whole run. That separation at equal reward is the empirical face of the unbiasedness proof: the baseline moved variance, not bias. This is the exact mechanism GRPO scales up, swapping my per-context running-mean baseline for a per-prompt group-mean baseline, and it is why a critic-free method can train a reasoning model on a single RTX 5080 16GB (when you run the real GRPO loop in Part VII, log this same gradient-variance and entropy pair: measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver).
The unbiasedness proof hinges on the baseline being independent of the action taken. It is tempting, and wrong, to peek at the sampled action when computing the baseline, for instance by using that completion's own reward as its own baseline, which makes the advantage identically zero and kills learning. GRPO's group mean is safe precisely because it averages over the whole group, so from any single completion's perspective the baseline is an action-independent constant (to leading order). If you ever find your advantages mysteriously collapsing to zero or your gradient going biased, check first whether your baseline has secretly become a function of the action you are updating.
Post angle: "Why grading on a curve is the trick that makes AI training work." REINFORCE, the foundational recipe for learning from trial and error, has a crippling flaw: it is so noisy that it barely learns, because it can't tell a genuinely good attempt from a lucky one. The fix is almost philosophical: don't reward an attempt for its raw score, reward it for beating expectations, for how much better it did than the average attempt at the same problem. That's grading on a curve, and there's a clean proof that it speeds up learning without ever distorting what the model learns, only how quickly. The essay lands on the fact that this exact "compare each answer to the group average" move is the beating heart of GRPO, the algorithm behind today's open reasoning models, and that you can watch the noise drop in a chart you can generate on a laptop in under a second.
Actor-critic and GAE
The last chapter left me with REINFORCE and a baseline, and a promise: the advantage is the "right" thing to multiply the score function by, and any good estimate of it will do. This chapter makes good on that promise by building the estimate the whole modern stack uses. I will learn the baseline instead of guessing it (that is the "critic"), I will show that the choice of advantage estimator is really a single knob trading bias against variance, and I will derive Generalized Advantage Estimation (GAE), which is the specific setting of that knob PPO and its descendants reach for. The derivation is a small, pretty telescoping sum, and it is worth doing by hand once because it demystifies the one line of code (delta + gamma*lam*last) that every PPO implementation hides the whole idea inside. At the end I price what this costs on a 16GB card, because "learn the baseline" means "carry a second network," and on the baseline machine that is the difference between a run that fits and a run that OOMs.
Theory
From a guessed baseline to a learned critic
Recall where REINFORCE landed. The policy gradient with a state-dependent baseline is
where is the discounted return from step , and subtracting any function of the state alone leaves the gradient unbiased (the baseline term has zero expectation under the score function, which I proved in the REINFORCE chapter). The variance-minimizing baseline is close to the state value , so the natural move is to estimate with a network and use it as the baseline. That network is the critic; the policy is the actor. The actor proposes actions, the critic grades the states the actor lands in, and the grade feeds back as the baseline in equation (6.1). With , the multiplier is an estimate of the advantage
the amount by which taking beats the policy's own average behavior from . Positive advantage, push the log-prob up; negative, push it down. That is the entire actor-critic idea in one sentence.
The critic is trained by regression. I have samples of the return (or a bootstrapped target, more on that in a moment), and I fit to them by minimizing a squared error,
where is whatever target I have chosen. So there are two losses now, the policy loss (equation 6.1) and the value loss (equation 6.3), optimized together, and this two-headed structure is exactly what PPO carries into language-model training. Everything interesting about actor-critic comes down to what I plug in for , because that single choice sets both the critic's regression target and, through the advantage, the actor's gradient.
The bias-variance dial
Here is the tension at the heart of the whole chapter. I can estimate the advantage in two extreme ways, and they fail in opposite directions.
At one extreme, use the full Monte Carlo return: . The return is an unbiased sample of , so this estimator is (nearly) unbiased. But is a sum of many random rewards over the whole rest of the trajectory, so its variance is enormous, and in a language model where the "trajectory" is a 500-token generation, that variance is brutal. Every token's advantage inherits the noise of every reward that came after it.
At the other extreme, bootstrap after one step. Use the one-step temporal-difference (TD) target , which gives the advantage estimate
This is the TD residual, and it is the single most important quantity in the GAE derivation, so give it a name and a box in your head. It has tiny variance, because it only involves one real reward and two value lookups. But it is biased: it trusts , which is wrong early in training, and that bias propagates. If the critic thinks a losing position is fine, inherits the delusion.
So one-step TD is low-variance and biased; full Monte Carlo is high-variance and unbiased. Everything in between is an -step estimator. Roll out real rewards, then bootstrap with the critic:
Small leans on the critic (low variance, higher bias); large leans on real rewards (high variance, lower bias); recovers Monte Carlo. The knob is , and picking a single is an awkward, discrete choice. GAE's contribution is to stop choosing and instead take a smooth, exponentially weighted average over all at once, controlled by a continuous parameter . That is the dial done right.
Before averaging, I need the key structural fact that makes the average collapse: the -step advantage is just a discounted sum of the first TD residuals. Start from equation (6.5) and add and subtract the intermediate values for , which changes nothing:
Now insert the telescoping ladder and regroup the terms so each real reward sits next to the value of the state it left and the (discounted) value of the state it entered:
Every internal value term appears once with a and once with a and cancels, leaving exactly the definition of from equation (6.4) at each offset. So , , and so on. This is the lever I need: an average over of the becomes a weighted sum over the 's, and the weights will telescope into something clean.
GAE(λ): the telescoping sum
GAE defines the advantage estimate as the exponentially weighted average of every -step estimator, with weight proportional to and a normalizer so the weights sum to one:
The claim, which I will now prove, is that this apparently infinite mixture collapses to a single discounted sum of TD residuals with the discount rate :
Substitute the residual form of the -step advantage, equation (6.6), into the definition (6.7):
I want to swap the order of summation so I collect, for each residual , the total weight it receives across all the -step terms that contain it. The residual (i.e. ) appears in exactly when , that is for every . Its coefficient carries the from the inner sum and a factor from the outer one. Exchanging the sums:
The inner geometric series starts at , i.e. at exponent :
Plug it back and the normalizer cancels the denominator exactly:
which is equation (6.8). The whole mixture over horizons became one geometric discounting of the TD residuals at rate . That is why GAE costs no more than one-step TD to compute: it is the same 's, just summed with a slightly heavier discount.
Two endpoints check the formula and fix the intuition. At , equation (6.8) keeps only the term, so : pure one-step TD, minimum variance, maximum reliance on the critic (maximum bias if the critic is wrong). At , the discount becomes and the sum telescopes back through equation (6.6) into : pure Monte Carlo, unbiased, maximum variance. So is literally the bias-variance dial, sliding continuously between the two extremes I set up earlier, and the conventional working value sits close to the low-bias end while shaving off the worst of the variance. Note the two discounts do different jobs: defines the actual objective (how much future reward is worth), while is purely an estimator knob that does not change what I am optimizing, only how noisily I estimate its gradient.
Nobody sums equation (6.8) forward from each ; that is . Instead read off a one-line backward recursion. Split the sum after its first term:
So walking backward from the end of the trajectory, A[t] = delta[t] + gamma*lam*A[t+1], with past the terminal step (or at a true terminal state where there is no bootstrap). One pass, , and the value target for the critic falls out for free as (the "returns" you regress onto in equation 6.3). That three-line loop is the entire practical content of GAE.
What this means for a language model
For an LLM, the "trajectory" is a generation and the "steps" are tokens. The state is the prompt plus the tokens emitted so far, the action is the next token, and in the RLHF setting the reward is sparse: zero for every intermediate token and a single scalar (a reward-model score, or a verifier's verdict) at the end of the sequence. With per-token rewards all zero until the end, the TD residual for interior tokens is entirely a difference of critic values, and GAE's job is to smear that terminal reward back across the tokens, credit-assigning it token by token through the learned value function. This is why PPO-for-LLMs genuinely needs a value model: without there is nothing to bootstrap from, every interior would be zero, and all the credit would dump onto the final token. The critic is what turns one scalar at the end into a dense, per-token advantage signal. GRPO, two chapters from now, will refuse to pay for that critic and get its dense signal a different way, and understanding why GAE needs the value model is exactly what makes GRPO's shortcut legible.
Tooling
The tool that embodies GAE is the RLHF trainer, and the concrete reference implementation I lean on is Hugging Face's TRL PPOTrainer together with the AutoModelForCausalLMWithValueHead wrapper. That wrapper is worth dwelling on because it is where the actor-critic structure becomes a memory line item. It takes a causal LM and bolts a second output head onto the final hidden states: a small linear layer that reads the same transformer trunk the policy uses and emits a scalar value per token position. So the critic shares the body with the actor and adds only a thin head. That sharing is a deliberate memory economy, but it does not make the critic free, because PPO's optimizer still has to carry gradients and optimizer state for the value pathway, and many setups (and the original InstructGPT recipe) use a separate value network entirely, which doubles the trunk.
Inside the trainer, the GAE computation is exactly equations (6.4), (6.8), and (6.9): after generating responses and scoring them, TRL computes per-token rewards (the reward-model score placed at the final token, plus a per-token KL penalty against the reference policy that I will develop in the PPO and GRPO chapters), runs values = value_head(hidden_states), then loops backward accumulating lastgaelam = delta + gamma * lam * lastgaelam to fill an advantages tensor. The defaults you will see are gamma=1.0 and lam=0.95, and is the usual LLM choice because a generation is short and finite and there is no reason to discount a reward that arrives 200 tokens away relative to one 10 tokens away. The returns tensor advantages + values becomes the regression target for the value loss (equation 6.3), which TRL clips just like the policy loss, a detail I will motivate in the next chapter.
The value head reads the transformer's last hidden state, which means the critic and the policy see the same forward activations. TRL exploits this: one forward pass through the trunk produces both the next-token logits (for the policy ratio) and the per-token values (for GAE), so you are not paying for two forward passes, only two heads on one. This is also why a shared-trunk value head is so much cheaper than a separate critic network, and why, on 16GB, the shared head is basically the only option that fits alongside a 1-3B policy. The catch is a subtle optimization coupling: gradients from the value loss flow back into the shared trunk and can fight the policy loss, which is why the value-loss coefficient (vf_coef, often 0.1-0.5) exists and why some recipes stop the value gradient from updating the trunk at all.
On the baseline machine (MSI Aegis R2, RTX 5080 16GB, Blackwell), the critic is not an afterthought, it is a headline cost. Take a policy with parameters in BF16. The policy alone, training with a fused AdamW-style optimizer, needs roughly: 2 bytes/param weights + 2 bytes/param gradients + 8 bytes/param optimizer state (FP32 moment + variance, and often an FP32 master weight pushing this higher), so on the order of 12 bytes per parameter before activations. A separate full value network of the same size doubles all of that, which is why a 3B policy that trains comfortably alone can OOM the moment you attach an independent critic. A shared-trunk value head avoids duplicating the trunk's weights and optimizer state, adding only the tiny head's parameters plus the extra activation memory for the value forward and its gradient, so it is the only actor-critic configuration I would attempt for a 1.5-3B policy on this card. Record the actual peak with torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated() for your policy size (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver). The one-sentence version, which the GRPO chapter cashes in: the value model is the most expensive optional thing in PPO, and its cost is the whole reason a critic-free method is attractive on one GPU.
Lab
The goal of this lab is to see the bias-variance dial move. I will build a tiny, fully controllable environment where the true advantage is known in closed form, compute GAE at several values against a deliberately-wrong critic, and plot estimator bias against estimator variance as sweeps from 0 to 1. The artifact is a CSV and a PNG showing the classic tradeoff curve, so that when a real PPO run later uses you know exactly what that number is buying. No GPU is needed here; this is pure estimator arithmetic and it runs on CPU in a second.
This is a uv project. From the repo root:
uv init labs/gae-dial
cd labs/gae-dial
uv add numpy matplotlib
"""Visualize the GAE(lambda) bias-variance tradeoff on a known-answer MDP.
A short linear-chain MDP with deterministic rewards gives a closed-form true
advantage. We corrupt the critic with a state-dependent error, then measure how GAE's
bias (systematic offset from the true advantage) and variance (spread across
noisy reward rollouts) move as lambda sweeps 0 -> 1.
"""
import csv
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
import matplotlib
matplotlib.use("Agg")
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
GAMMA = 0.99
T = 20 # steps per episode
N_EPISODES = 4000 # rollouts to estimate variance
REWARD_NOISE = 1.0 # std of per-step reward noise
CRITIC_ERR = 0.5 # amplitude of the state-dependent error in V_phi
rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
def true_values(mean_rewards):
"""Exact V(s_t) = sum_{k>=0} gamma^k E[r_{t+k}] for the chain."""
V = np.zeros(T + 1)
for t in range(T - 1, -1, -1):
V[t] = mean_rewards[t] + GAMMA * V[t + 1]
return V
def gae(deltas, lam):
"""Backward recursion A[t] = delta[t] + gamma*lam*A[t+1] (eq 6.9)."""
A = np.zeros(len(deltas))
running = 0.0
for t in range(len(deltas) - 1, -1, -1):
running = deltas[t] + GAMMA * lam * running
A[t] = running
return A
def main():
mean_rewards = np.linspace(1.0, 0.2, T) # deterministic reward means
V_true = true_values(mean_rewards)
# A *state-dependent* critic error, not a uniform offset. It is calibrated
# at the two anchored states -- the start s_0 (every rollout begins there, so
# it gets the most training signal) and the terminal s_T (value known to be
# 0) -- and wrong by +CRITIC_ERR everywhere in between. A uniform offset
# would cancel in every TD residual yet survive as the lone baseline term at
# the Monte-Carlo limit, making |bias| *grow* with lambda; pinning s_0 (and
# s_T) to the truth is what makes the MC estimate (lambda=1) unbiased while
# bootstrap (lambda=0) still leans on the wrong interior values.
err = np.full(T + 1, CRITIC_ERR)
err[0] = 0.0
err[T] = 0.0
V_phi = V_true + err # critic wrong in the interior
# True advantage at t=0 for the greedy step: A = Q - V. With deterministic
# dynamics and this policy, the true A_0 is 0 in expectation (the baseline
# is exactly right when V_true is used), so the *estimator's* mean minus 0
# is its bias, and its spread across rollouts is its variance.
lambdas = np.linspace(0.0, 1.0, 21)
rows, biases, variances = [], [], []
for lam in lambdas:
est0 = np.empty(N_EPISODES)
for e in range(N_EPISODES):
rewards = mean_rewards + rng.normal(0, REWARD_NOISE, size=T)
# delta_t = r_t + gamma V(s_{t+1}) - V(s_t), bootstrap with wrong V_phi
deltas = rewards + GAMMA * V_phi[1:] - V_phi[:-1]
est0[e] = gae(deltas, lam)[0]
# Bias: mean estimate minus the true advantage against the *correct* V.
true_A0 = 0.0
bias = est0.mean() - true_A0
var = est0.var()
biases.append(bias)
variances.append(var)
rows.append({"lambda": round(lam, 3),
"bias": bias, "variance": var,
"abs_bias": abs(bias)})
csv_path = OUT / "gae_tradeoff.csv"
with csv_path.open("w", newline="") as f:
w = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=["lambda", "bias", "variance", "abs_bias"])
w.writeheader(); w.writerows(rows)
fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(7, 4.5))
ax1.plot(lambdas, np.abs(biases), "o-", color="C3", label="|bias|")
ax1.set_xlabel(r"$\lambda$"); ax1.set_ylabel("|bias|", color="C3")
ax1.tick_params(axis="y", labelcolor="C3")
ax2 = ax1.twinx()
ax2.plot(lambdas, variances, "s-", color="C0", label="variance")
ax2.set_ylabel("variance", color="C0")
ax2.tick_params(axis="y", labelcolor="C0")
ax1.set_title(r"GAE($\lambda$): the bias-variance dial")
fig.tight_layout()
png_path = OUT / "gae_tradeoff.png"
fig.savefig(png_path, dpi=130)
print(f"lambda=0.00 |bias|={abs(biases[0]):.3f} var={variances[0]:.3f}")
print(f"lambda=0.95 |bias|={abs(biases[19]):.3f} var={variances[19]:.3f}")
print(f"lambda=1.00 |bias|={abs(biases[-1]):.3f} var={variances[-1]:.3f}")
print(f"Artifacts: {csv_path.resolve()} {png_path.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python gae_bias_variance.py
The bias in this toy comes entirely from CRITIC_ERR, the deliberate state-dependent error I baked into . That is the honest picture: GAE's bias is inherited from the critic, so at (pure bootstrap) the estimate leans hardest on the wrong interior values and shows the most bias, while at (pure Monte Carlo) the critic's error washes out of the advantage almost entirely because the value terms telescope away, leaving only the real (noisy) rewards. Note why the MC limit is unbiased here: the only critic term that survives the telescoping is the baseline at the start state , and I deliberately calibrated the critic there, so a uniform offset (present at ) would not wash out. If you set CRITIC_ERR = 0, the |bias| curve flattens to zero and only the variance curve moves, which is the clean way to confirm that trades variance for a bias you only pay when your critic is wrong. In real training the critic is always at least a little wrong, especially early, which is why is rarely used despite being unbiased.
What you should see. As climbs from 0 to 1, the |bias| curve falls toward zero (the critic's baked-in error drains out of the estimate) while the variance curve climbs steeply (more real, noisy rewards enter the sum). The two curves cross somewhere in the middle, and the region around to is visibly the sweet spot: most of the bias is already gone but the variance has not yet exploded, which is the empirical reason the field settled on . The printed lines give you three points on that curve to sanity-check against the plot, and the CSV lets you re-plot or fit the tradeoff yourself. Read this figure as the picture behind one hyperparameter you will otherwise copy on faith into every PPO and GRPO config in Part VII.
Read this chapter against [RLHF] ch. 6, which develops the policy-gradient-to-actor-critic progression in the specific context of language-model RLHF and lays out GAE as the advantage estimator PPO uses. Their treatment connects the value head and the per-token KL reward directly to the training loop you will run in Part VII; my derivation here (equations 6.6-6.9) is the underlying math their trainer takes as given. If you want the original, Schulman et al. (2016), "High-Dimensional Continuous Control Using Generalized Advantage Estimation," is where equation (6.8) comes from.
"The one line of code that hides an infinite sum." Every PPO implementation contains A = delta + gamma*lam*A_next, three symbols and a loop, and almost nobody who copies it can tell you it is the collapsed form of an exponentially-weighted average over every n-step return at once. A post that takes the reader from "I have a noisy return and a biased critic, which do I trust" through the telescoping sum (equation 6.8) to the punchline that is a single continuous knob between the two, and that is not folklore but a measurable point on a bias-variance curve you can plot in twenty lines on a laptop. The hook: the prettiest derivation in RL is also the one people are most likely to paste without reading.
Trust regions: from TRPO to PPO
I now have a policy gradient (Part V chapter 4), a learned baseline, and a low-variance advantage estimate from GAE (chapter 6). In principle I could just take gradient steps and be done. In practice, if I do that naively, the policy collapses, and it collapses in a way that is not a bug in my code but a fundamental feature of on-policy RL. This chapter is about why, and about the two fixes that define modern policy optimization: TRPO, which solves the problem correctly but expensively with a hard trust-region constraint, and PPO, which approximates that constraint with a clipped objective so simple you can implement it in five lines and so robust it became the default for essentially all of RLHF. I will derive the surrogate objective from the performance-difference lemma, sketch the TRPO constrained problem, and then do the PPO clip in full, including the piecewise case analysis that is the whole reason the clip works. The geometry of that clip is the payoff: once you see which way each piece pushes, PPO stops being a magic formula and becomes obvious.
Theory
Why a naive policy-gradient step destroys the policy
The policy gradient tells me a direction in parameter space, not a distance. The gradient is a statement about an infinitesimal step; it says nothing about how far I can move before the linear approximation it is built on stops being true. And in policy optimization the approximation breaks down viciously fast, for a reason specific to RL that supervised learning does not share: the data distribution depends on the parameters I am changing. In supervised learning, a too-large step gives a worse model on a fixed dataset, and the next batch corrects it. In RL, a too-large step gives a worse policy, that worse policy generates the next batch of data, and if the policy has moved somewhere terrible it collects terrible data and the estimate of the next gradient is computed on that garbage. There is no fixed dataset to fall back to. A single overlarge step can push the policy into a region where it emits degenerate outputs, those outputs get near-zero or misleading reward, the gradient signal collapses, and the run never recovers. This is the "falling off a cliff" failure, and it is why you cannot just crank the learning rate.
The deeper issue is that the natural distance in parameter space (Euclidean distance on ) has nothing to do with the distance in policy space (how different the resulting action distributions are). A tiny change in can enormously change if you are in a sensitive region, and a large change in can barely move elsewhere. So bounding is the wrong constraint. What I actually want to bound is how much the policy distribution moves, and the natural currency for that is the KL divergence . Keep the new policy inside a small KL ball around the old one and the data distribution cannot lurch, the advantage estimates I computed under stay approximately valid, and each step is a safe, monotonic-ish improvement. That KL ball is the "trust region," the region where I trust my local model of the objective. Everything below is machinery for optimizing inside it.
The surrogate objective and the performance-difference lemma
To optimize offline (using a batch of data from to take a step that produces ), I need to express the new policy's performance in terms of old-policy samples. The exact bridge is the performance-difference lemma (Kakade and Langford, 2002):
where is the discounted state-visitation distribution under the new policy. The lemma is exact and beautiful, but it has a problem that is the crux of everything: the expectation is over states visited by , the very policy I am trying to find, so I cannot sample from it yet.
Proof sketch of (7.1) first, because it is short and it shows where the advantage comes from. Write the discounted return as a telescoping sum of advantages along a trajectory drawn from the new policy , using :
The terms telescope: in expectation. So the right side is , which is (7.1).
Now the move that makes it usable. I cannot sample states from , so I approximate it with the old policy's visitation , which is valid as long as is close to (close policies visit similar states). That gives the surrogate objective:
The inner expectation is still over , which I also do not have samples from (my actions came from ). Fix that with importance sampling: reweight old-policy actions by the ratio of new to old probability,
which is exact (it is just multiplying and dividing by inside the sum over actions). Defining the probability ratio
the surrogate becomes something I can estimate entirely from old-policy rollouts:
This is the objective every trust-region method maximizes. Note and , so at the starting point the surrogate's gradient is exactly the policy gradient. The surrogate is a local model of the true objective that agrees with it to first order, and is trustworthy only while stays near , which is precisely why it must be paired with a trust region.
The two approximations I just made (swapping for , and trusting importance sampling with a ratio that could be anything) are both only valid near . Push far and the surrogate stops predicting the true , the ratio can blow up, and maximizing happily walks you off the cliff. So the surrogate is necessary but not sufficient; it must be constrained.
TRPO: the hard constraint
TRPO makes the trust region explicit. Maximize the surrogate subject to a hard KL constraint:
Approximate the two pieces near . The surrogate is linear to first order, with the policy gradient. The KL constraint is quadratic to second order, because its first-order term vanishes (KL is minimized at zero when the policies match, so its gradient there is zero):
where is the Fisher information matrix (the Hessian of the KL at the origin). So (7.5) becomes: maximize subject to . The Lagrangian solution is the natural gradient:
This is the correct, geometry-aware step: it moves along the gradient preconditioned by the inverse Fisher, so a fixed KL budget translates into an appropriately-sized parameter step no matter how sensitive the local policy is. TRPO computes without forming (which for a large network is astronomically big) using conjugate gradient on Fisher-vector products, then backtracks along the step to enforce the exact constraint and the actual surrogate improvement.
TRPO works and comes with a monotonic-improvement guarantee, but equation (7.6) is a lot of machinery: conjugate-gradient inner loops, Fisher-vector products, a line search, all per update. For a transformer with billions of parameters and a training loop I want to run on one GPU, this is both a memory and an engineering burden. PPO's entire pitch is: get 90% of the trust-region benefit with a first-order method that needs none of that.
PPO: clipping as a soft trust region
PPO throws away the explicit KL constraint and instead bakes the trust region into the objective itself, so that plain SGD/Adam cannot want to move too far. The clipped surrogate is
where and is a small constant, typically to . Two things are happening: the ratio is clipped to the interval , and then the objective takes the minimum of the clipped and unclipped terms. The minimum is what makes it a lower bound (a pessimistic surrogate), and the direction of the clip flips depending on the sign of the advantage. That sign-dependence is the whole design, so I will take it apart case by case.
Fix a single timestep and drop the subscript: ratio (which is at and moves as changes), advantage , clip width . The per-sample objective is . Split on the sign of .
Case 1: (this action was good, I want to increase its probability, i.e. push up). The unclipped term rises without bound as increases. The clipped term is , capped at . Taking the min of the two:
- For : clip does nothing, , ordinary gradient pushing up.
- For : clipped term is the smaller one, so , a constant. Its gradient in is zero.
So once the new policy has made this good action more than times as likely as the old policy did, the objective flatlines and stops rewarding further increases. The incentive to keep climbing is switched off exactly at the trust-region boundary.
Case 2: (this action was bad, I want to decrease its probability, i.e. push down). Now becomes more positive as decreases (a negative advantage times a shrinking ratio), so the objective wants small. The clipped term is (the clip's lower arm binds now), floored at . Because , the min of the two picks the more negative, i.e. the smaller, value:
- For : clip inactive, , gradient pushing down.
- For : clipped term is now the smaller (more negative) term, and since we take the min, , again a constant with zero gradient.
So once the new policy has driven this bad action below times its old probability, the objective flatlines and stops rewarding further suppression. Symmetric to case 1.
The unified statement. The clip removes the gradient incentive to move the ratio further past the boundary in the direction the advantage wants. It does not clip when the ratio moves in the "wrong" direction (a good action becoming less likely, or a bad action becoming more likely); there the full unclipped gradient applies, so PPO can always correct an overshoot, it just refuses to chase one. Taking the min is what guarantees this asymmetry: is a pessimistic lower bound on the unclipped surrogate, tight at and only ever pulling the objective down, never inflating it. That pessimism is the soft trust region.
The geometry is worth stating in plain words because it is the mental model I carry into every PPO and GRPO run. Picture as a function of the ratio , with the old policy sitting at . For a good action, the objective is a ramp going up and to the right that hits a flat ceiling at . For a bad action, it is a ramp going up and to the left (toward smaller ) that hits a flat floor at . In both cases there is a flat plateau beyond the boundary in the "desired" direction and a live slope on the near side and in the "undo" direction. Gradient ascent slides up the ramp until it reaches the plateau, then stops, per token, per sample. No Fisher matrix, no line search, no explicit KL, just a clamp and a min. The clip width is the radius of the trust region measured in ratio space, and meaning "don't let any single token's probability move by more than about 20% per update round" is a genuinely useful one-line summary.
The clip alone does not bound the KL divergence, a subtlety that trips people who read "PPO replaces the KL constraint." Clipping only kills the gradient once a ratio is already outside ; a single large update, or many small correlated ones, can still carry the ratio far past the boundary before the gradient dies, and the min does not pull it back, it only stops pushing. That is why practical PPO for LLMs keeps a separate explicit KL penalty against a reference policy in the reward (the per-token KL I mentioned in the GAE chapter), and why implementations often add early-stopping on measured KL per epoch. The clip is a soft, per-token trust region; it is necessary but, on its own, not a hard guarantee. Hold this thought, because GRPO's KL term is exactly this separate penalty, and DAPO's "clip-higher" is exactly a modification of .
Tooling
The tool is again TRL's PPOTrainer, now read through the lens of equation (7.7). One PPO iteration does four things: generate responses from the current policy (this snapshots , whose log-probs are cached), score them with a reward model or verifier and compute per-token rewards including the KL-to-reference penalty, compute advantages with GAE from the previous chapter, then take several gradient epochs over the batch optimizing plus the clipped value loss plus an entropy bonus. The ratio is computed as exp(new_logprob - old_logprob) per token, where old_logprob is the cached value from generation time and new_logprob comes from a fresh forward pass under the current ; this is why PPO does multiple gradient steps per rollout batch (the " epochs"), because after the first step and the ratio genuinely starts to move away from 1, which is the entire point of the clip.
"On-policy" is a spectrum in practice, and the ratio is what buys the slack. Strictly on-policy would mean one gradient step per rollout, wasting the expensive generation. Importance sampling (equation 7.3) lets PPO reuse each batch for several epochs by correcting for the growing mismatch between and the that generated the data, and the clip is what keeps that reuse from going off the rails when the ratio drifts too far. So the clip is not just a safety rail on step size, it is what makes PPO sample-efficient enough to afford at all: without it you could not safely take more than one step per generation, and generation is the costliest part of the loop. On the baseline machine (RTX 5080 16GB), where a generation pass with vLLM is the throughput bottleneck, squeezing 2-4 gradient epochs out of each rollout batch is the difference between a training run that finishes overnight and one that does not.
PPO's memory footprint on 16GB is dominated by carrying four model roles at once: the policy being trained (weights + grads + optimizer state), the value model (chapter 6, cheap if it is a shared head, expensive if separate), a frozen reference policy for the KL penalty (weights only, no grads, but still a full forward pass), and the reward model or verifier (weights only, or free if the verifier is a Python function, which is exactly the RLVR advantage the thesis leans on). For a 1.5-3B policy in BF16 this is tight but feasible on the RTX 5080 if the value head is shared and the reference/reward passes run in no_grad; push to a separate value network or a large reward model and you overflow. Record the peak with torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated() per configuration (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver). This four-model burden is precisely what GRPO attacks: drop the value model (chapter 6's expensive optional thing) and, in the RLVR setting, drop the reward model too by using a verifier, and suddenly you are carrying policy plus a frozen reference, which is what fits comfortably on one card.
Lab
The goal of this lab is to make the clip's geometry undeniable by plotting itself, for both advantage signs, and overlaying the unclipped surrogate so you can see exactly where and why the objective flattens. This is the picture from the derivation, rendered from the same arithmetic PPO runs on every token. It is pure math, no GPU, no model, and it runs instantly. Seeing the two ramps-into-plateaus once is worth more than re-reading the min-of-clip formula ten times.
This is a uv project. From the repo root:
uv init labs/ppo-clip-geometry
cd labs/ppo-clip-geometry
uv add numpy matplotlib
"""Plot the PPO-clip per-sample objective as a function of the ratio r.
Reproduces the piecewise picture from the derivation: for A>0 a rising ramp
that ceilings at r=1+eps, for A<0 a rising-to-the-left ramp that floors at
r=1-eps. Overlays the unclipped surrogate r*A to show where the clip bites.
"""
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
import matplotlib
matplotlib.use("Agg")
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
OUT = Path("artifacts"); OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
EPS = 0.2
def clipped_obj(r, A, eps=EPS):
unclipped = r * A
clipped = np.clip(r, 1 - eps, 1 + eps) * A
return np.minimum(unclipped, clipped)
def main():
r = np.linspace(0.0, 2.0, 400)
fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(11, 4.5), sharey=False)
for ax, A, title in [(axes[0], +1.0, r"$\hat{A} > 0$ (good action)"),
(axes[1], -1.0, r"$\hat{A} < 0$ (bad action)")]:
ax.plot(r, r * A, "--", color="0.6", label=r"unclipped $r\hat{A}$")
ax.plot(r, clipped_obj(r, A), color="C0", lw=2.4, label=r"$L^{CLIP}$")
for x in (1 - EPS, 1.0, 1 + EPS):
ax.axvline(x, color="0.85", lw=1, zorder=0)
ax.set_title(title); ax.set_xlabel(r"ratio $r_t(\theta)$")
ax.set_ylabel("per-sample objective"); ax.legend(loc="best")
ax.annotate(r"$1-\epsilon$", (1 - EPS, ax.get_ylim()[0]),
ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=8, color="0.4")
ax.annotate(r"$1+\epsilon$", (1 + EPS, ax.get_ylim()[0]),
ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=8, color="0.4")
fig.suptitle(r"PPO-clip geometry ($\epsilon = 0.2$): the plateau is the trust region")
fig.tight_layout()
png = OUT / "clip_geometry.png"
fig.savefig(png, dpi=130)
# Print the four regimes as a table so the plateaus are checkable numerically.
print("A>0: r=0.9 -> L=%.2f r=1.3 -> L=%.2f (ceiling at 1+eps)"
% (clipped_obj(0.9, 1.0), clipped_obj(1.3, 1.0)))
print("A<0: r=1.1 -> L=%.2f r=0.7 -> L=%.2f (floor at 1-eps)"
% (clipped_obj(1.1, -1.0), clipped_obj(0.7, -1.0)))
print(f"Artifact: {png.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python clip_geometry.py
Read the plateaus carefully against the derivation, because the intuition most people carry is half wrong. On the panel the objective flatlines for (stop chasing a good action once it is already 20% more likely), but it keeps a live downward slope for where a good action has become less likely, so PPO will still fight to bring it back. On the panel it is mirrored: flat for , but a live slope for where a bad action got more likely. The clip is one-sided per case; it disables the incentive to overshoot in the desired direction while leaving the correction always available. If your mental model was "PPO clips whenever the ratio leaves the band," this plot is the correction: it clips only on the far side of the direction the advantage is pushing.
What you should see. Two panels. Left (): a straight line rising with that abruptly goes flat at , with the dashed unclipped line continuing up past it, so the gap between them is the reward PPO is deliberately declining. Right (): a line rising as decreases, going flat at , again with the unclipped dashed line diverging below. The four printed numbers pin the plateaus: for , gives exactly (clamped) while gives (unclamped); for , gives (clamped) while gives (unclamped, still being corrected). That asymmetry, live on the correction side and flat on the overshoot side, is the entire trust-region behavior of PPO in one figure, and it is the picture I want in your head when GRPO reuses this exact clip in the next chapter.
Read this against [RLHF] ch. 6 for the RLHF-specific PPO recipe (the per-token KL reward, the value head, the practical loss composition) and [BRM] ch. 6, which walks the clipped objective and its implementation in the reasoning-model context this thesis targets. My derivation of the surrogate from the performance-difference lemma (equations 7.1-7.4) is the theoretical backing both treatments assume; the primary sources are Schulman et al. (2015) "Trust Region Policy Optimization" for equations (7.5)-(7.6) and Schulman et al. (2017) "Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms" for the clip (7.7).
"Why you can't just turn up the learning rate on a policy." The one-paragraph version of the whole cliff problem: in supervised learning a bad step is corrected by the next batch, but in RL the policy generates the next batch, so a bad step poisons its own future data and there is no fixed ground truth to fall back to. TRPO's answer is a careful KL-constrained natural-gradient step (correct, expensive); PPO's answer is a clip so simple it fits on one line, and the post's payoff is the geometry: two ramps into two plateaus, live on the side that corrects mistakes and flat on the side that would chase them. The hook is that the most-deployed RL algorithm on earth is, geometrically, just "stop pushing once you've pushed enough," and you can plot the whole thing in twenty lines with no GPU.
GRPO
PPO works, but the last two chapters left it carrying an expensive passenger: the value model. On a 16GB card that critic is the difference between fitting and overflowing, and it exists for one job, turning a single end-of-sequence reward into a dense per-token advantage via GAE. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), introduced by the DeepSeek team and the workhorse behind DeepSeek-R1, asks a sharp question: what if I get the advantage a different way, from comparison within a group of samples, and delete the critic entirely? This chapter derives GRPO straight from the PPO objective, shows precisely which term the group-relative advantage replaces, works through the KL-to-reference regularizer and why the specific "k3" estimator is the right choice, disentangles the token-versus-sequence aggregation question that causes most of the confusion in real implementations, and catalogues the pathologies (length bias, standard-deviation collapse) along with the DAPO-style fixes that patch them. GRPO is the algorithm Part VII actually runs on the baseline machine, so this is the one to get exactly right.
Theory
The idea: replace the critic with a group baseline
Go back to the advantage, . The value is a baseline, an estimate of "how good is this state on average," and PPO learns it with a whole second network. But there is an older, cheaper way to get a baseline that the REINFORCE chapter already flagged: sample several actions from the same state and use their average reward as the baseline. If from prompt I draw a group of complete responses and score each with reward , then the group mean is an empirical, per-prompt estimate of the state value, and is an empirical advantage: how much better response was than its peers on the same prompt. No critic, no bootstrap, no GAE. This is the entire conceptual move of GRPO. The critic is replaced by a Monte Carlo baseline computed fresh for each prompt from its own group of samples.
GRPO goes one step further and normalizes by the group's spread, giving the group-relative advantage
which is assigned identically to every token in response (every token in a sequence shares that sequence's advantage). The mean-subtraction is the variance-reducing baseline; the standard-deviation division is a whitening step that keeps the advantage scale roughly constant across prompts of wildly different difficulty, so the learning rate does not have to absorb the fact that one prompt's rewards live in and another's cluster at . I will return to that division, because it is also the source of one of GRPO's pathologies.
Deriving the GRPO objective from PPO
Now put equation (8.1) into the PPO machinery. GRPO keeps PPO's clipped surrogate exactly (chapter 7's equation 7.7) and adds an explicit KL penalty to a frozen reference policy , optimizing
where is the same per-token importance ratio as PPO, and weights the KL regularizer.
Start from PPO's per-token objective (equation 7.7), . GRPO makes exactly two changes.
Substitution 1: the advantage. PPO computes from GAE, which needs and the TD residuals . In the LLM setting the per-token reward is zero except at the end, so all the interior 's are pure value differences, which is the only reason a critic was needed (chapter 6). GRPO throws that out and sets , the group-relative scalar of equation (8.1), constant across all tokens of response . The per-token structure GAE provided is gone; every token in a good response gets the same positive advantage, every token in a bad one the same negative advantage. This is a coarser credit assignment, and it is the price of dropping the critic, but with a group of samples per prompt the mean-and-std baseline is a low-variance estimate that works well when the reward is a clean end-of-sequence verdict (which is exactly the RLVR setting the thesis lives in).
Substitution 2: the KL location. PPO usually folds a per-token KL-to-reference penalty into the reward before computing advantages (so the KL flows through GAE). GRPO instead adds the KL as a separate term in the loss, equation (8.2)'s , kept out of the advantage entirely. This is cleaner to reason about (the clip governs the trust region against ; the KL governs drift against the frozen , two different jobs) and it is where the specific k3 estimator enters, next.
That is the whole derivation. GRPO is PPO with the advantage sourced from a group mean/std instead of a value network, and the reference-KL moved from the reward into the loss. Everything else, the clip, the ratio, the multiple epochs per rollout, is inherited unchanged.
The payoff is immediate and is the reason GRPO exists for people on small hardware: no value model. The critic's weights, gradients, and optimizer state, the single most expensive optional component of PPO (chapter 6's vram-budget), are simply gone. What remains is the policy (trained), a frozen reference (forward-only), and, in the RLVR setting, a verifier that is a Python function rather than a reward network. That is the configuration that fits a 1.5-3B policy comfortably on the RTX 5080.
The KL estimators: k1, k2, k3
The KL term needs care because I estimate it from samples, not in closed form, and the naive estimator is bad. I am estimating using samples drawn from (the tokens I actually generated). Define the likelihood ratio (reference over current, note the direction). Schulman's three estimators are:
All three are estimators of the same KL, but they differ in bias and variance, and k3 is the one GRPO uses. Work through the three.
k1 is unbiased but high-variance. By definition exactly, so k1 is unbiased. But KL is a nonnegative quantity, and is negative whenever , which happens for plenty of individual samples. So a single-sample k1 estimate is frequently negative, which is nonsense for a divergence, and its variance is large. Optimizing against a term that is negative half the time injects noise.
k2 is low-variance but biased. is always nonnegative (good) and low-variance, and it happens to be a decent approximation because for distributions that are close, to second order. But it is biased: its expectation is not the KL except in the limit of identical distributions, and the bias grows as drifts from , which is exactly when you care.
k3 is unbiased AND nonnegative. Here is the construction. Start from the identity that for the true KL, . So : the quantity has zero mean and I can add any multiple of it to k1 without changing the expectation. Choose the multiple that makes the result nonnegative:
Its expectation is , so it is unbiased. And it is always nonnegative, because has (zero at ), (convex), so its global minimum is ; for all , , hence . It is a convex, always-positive, unbiased, low-variance estimator, the best of k1 and k2 at once. That is why equation (8.2)'s KL term is implemented as with evaluated per token.
A useful sanity check that the k3 gradient behaves: even though k3 is a nonlinear function of , its gradient with respect to points in the KL-reducing direction, and near it reduces to the familiar penalty. The practical note is just that you must get the direction of right ( over ); flip it and the estimator is no longer the KL you want.
Token versus sequence aggregation
Equation (8.2) as written normalizes each response by its own length (the inner ) and then averages over the responses. This is a choice, and it is one of the most consequential and most confused details in GRPO. There are two axes: how to reduce over tokens within a response, and how to weight responses of different lengths against each other.
Write the per-response loss contribution generically as , where is the per-token clipped objective and is a normalizer. Two natural choices:
Per-sequence mean (). This is the original GRPO of equation (8.2). Each response contributes the average per-token loss, so every response counts equally regardless of length. But look at what it does to gradients: a token in a short response is divided by a small and a token in a long response by a large one, so individual tokens in long responses get smaller gradients. When the advantage is negative (a wrong answer), this means long wrong answers are penalized less per token than short wrong answers. The optimizer discovers it can dilute penalty by being verbose, and length creeps up. This is the notorious GRPO length bias, and it is baked into the per-sequence normalizer.
Per-token mean over the whole batch (, one shared denominator). Sum every token's loss across the whole group and divide by the total token count. Now every token carries equal weight regardless of which response it lived in, so a long wrong answer accrues penalty proportional to its length, killing the verbosity incentive. This is the DAPO / Dr. GRPO fix: move the normalization from per-sequence to per-token-over-the-batch. The tradeoff is that long responses now dominate the loss in proportion to their length, which is usually what you want for reasoning (longer correct chains should get more total credit) but changes the effective learning dynamics, so it interacts with the learning rate.
The one-line rule I use: per-sequence normalization treats responses as the unit and quietly rewards length; per-token (batch-level) normalization treats tokens as the unit and removes that particular bias. For reasoning-model training the per-token variant is now the common default, and I will use it in the Part VII lab.
Pathologies and the DAPO-style fixes
Two failure modes recur, both traceable to specific terms above.
Length bias, just derived, from per-sequence normalization. Fix: per-token (batch-level) loss normalization, and DAPO additionally adds an explicit "overlong" soft penalty that shapes the reward down for responses that run past a length budget, so the model is discouraged from rambling to game the normalizer.
Standard-deviation collapse, from the division in equation (8.1). When every response in a group gets the same reward (all correct, or all wrong, which is extremely common with binary verifiable rewards on easy or impossible prompts), the group std is zero and equation (8.1) is . Implementations add an to the denominator, so the advantage becomes zero and the prompt contributes no gradient at all. That is a silent waste: a large fraction of your batch can be prompts the model already fully solves or cannot touch, contributing nothing, and it also introduces a subtle scale artifact because prompts that happen to have small nonzero std get amplified advantages (dividing by a tiny number), overweighting near-degenerate prompts. Two fixes: Dr. GRPO argues for dropping the std division entirely (use only , an unnormalized advantage, removing the amplification artifact), and DAPO's dynamic sampling filters out prompts whose group is all-correct or all-wrong and resamples until the batch is full of prompts with reward variance, so every gradient step spends its compute on prompts that actually carry signal.
Clip-higher, DAPO's third tweak, addresses entropy collapse. Recall from chapter 7 that PPO's clip is symmetric, . DAPO decouples the two sides, with (for example versus ). The rationale falls straight out of the chapter-7 piecewise analysis: for a good, currently-low-probability token, the upper clip at caps how fast its probability can rise, which throttles exploration of promising-but-rare tokens and lets the policy collapse onto a few high-probability moves. Raising the upper bound alone lets rare good tokens climb faster (more exploration) without loosening the lower bound that guards against over-suppression. It is a targeted widening of exactly one arm of the clip geometry.
The most expensive silent bug in a from-scratch GRPO run is std collapse eating your batch. With a binary verifiable reward and a policy that already solves, say, 60% of the easy prompts, a large chunk of every group comes back all-1 or all-0, contributes zero advantage, and your effective batch size is a fraction of what you think it is; loss curves look calm while learning crawls. Always log the fraction of prompts with nonzero reward std per step. If it is low, you are paying full generation cost for a handful of useful gradients, and DAPO's dynamic sampling (resample until the group has reward variance) is not a nice-to-have, it is the difference between the run learning and stalling. This is measured behavior on your data (measured on the baseline machine — record the nonzero-std fraction, date, driver).
Tooling
The tool is TRL's GRPOTrainer (and its close cousins in verl and OpenRLHF). It embodies equation (8.2) directly: for each prompt it generates completions (the num_generations argument, typically 4 to 16), scores them with a user-supplied reward_funcs list (which for RLVR is just Python functions returning floats, no reward model in VRAM), computes the group mean and std to get per equation (8.1), and optimizes the clipped-plus-KL loss. The knobs map one-to-one onto the theory: beta is the KL coefficient , epsilon and (in newer versions) epsilon_high are the clip bounds including DAPO's clip-higher, loss_type selects the aggregation ("grpo" for per-sequence, "dr_grpo" or "bnpo"-style for the per-token batch normalization that removes length bias), and scale_rewards toggles the std division from equation (8.1) so you can run the Dr. GRPO unnormalized variant.
GRPO's compute profile is generation-bound, harder than PPO's, because it needs samples per prompt instead of one. That is the real cost of dropping the critic: you trade the value network's memory for more rollouts. On the RTX 5080 this is exactly why the serve step of the thesis loop uses vLLM rather than naive model.generate, since producing completions per prompt for a batch of prompts is the throughput bottleneck of the entire training step, and vLLM's paged-attention batching is what makes it tractable. The advantage computation itself (equation 8.1) is a trivial mean and std over scalars per prompt, microseconds, so essentially all the wall-clock time is generation plus the backward pass; the group baseline is free. Weight sync between the training copy and the vLLM inference copy after each update is the other moving part, and on one GPU that means the served policy and the trained policy are the same weights, updated in place.
This is where GRPO earns its place in the thesis. On the baseline machine (RTX 5080 16GB, Blackwell), the resident set for a GRPO run on a 1.5-3B policy is: the policy (weights + grads + optimizer state, ~12+ bytes/param in BF16 mixed precision), a frozen reference policy for the k3 KL (weights only, forward in no_grad, ~2 bytes/param), and no value model and no reward model, because the advantage is the group baseline and the reward is a verifier function. Compared to PPO's four-model burden (chapter 7), GRPO carries roughly two, and the two it drops (critic and reward model) are the two that most often push a small-hardware run over the 16GB edge. The one remaining tension is the group size : larger gives a lower-variance baseline but multiplies the activation memory and KV-cache of the generation step, so on 16GB there is a real ceiling on (max sequence length) that you tune empirically. Record the peak with torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated() for your and policy size (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver).
Lab
The goal of this lab is to compute the two things GRPO adds to PPO, the group-relative advantage (equation 8.1) and the three KL estimators (equation 8.3), on synthetic data where I know the answer, and to watch k3 beat k1 and k2 on the bias-and-variance criterion the derivation claimed. This isolates the two novel pieces so that when the full GRPO run in Part VII uses them, they are already understood in miniature. Pure arithmetic, no GPU, no model.
This is a uv project. From the repo root:
uv init labs/grpo-pieces
cd labs/grpo-pieces
uv add numpy matplotlib
"""The two novel pieces of GRPO, in isolation:
(1) group-relative advantage (eq 8.1) over G samples per prompt, and
(2) the k1/k2/k3 KL estimators (eq 8.3), comparing bias and variance
against the exact KL between two known categorical distributions.
"""
from pathlib import Path
import csv
import numpy as np
OUT = Path("artifacts"); OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
# ---- Piece 1: group-relative advantage --------------------------------------
def group_advantage(rewards, scale_by_std=True, eps=1e-6):
mean = rewards.mean()
if scale_by_std:
return (rewards - mean) / (rewards.std() + eps)
return rewards - mean # Dr. GRPO variant (no std division)
# ---- Piece 2: KL estimators over a known pair of distributions --------------
def kl_exact(p, q):
return float(np.sum(p * np.log(p / q)))
def kl_estimators(p, q, n_samples):
"""Sample x ~ p (= pi_theta), form rho = q(x)/p(x) = pi_ref/pi_theta."""
idx = rng.choice(len(p), size=n_samples, p=p)
rho = q[idx] / p[idx]
logrho = np.log(rho)
k1 = -logrho # unbiased, high variance, can be < 0
k2 = 0.5 * logrho**2 # biased, nonnegative
k3 = rho - 1.0 - logrho # unbiased, nonnegative
return k1, k2, k3
def main():
# --- advantage demo: a group where 2 of 6 responses are correct ---
rewards = np.array([1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0])
print("rewards:", rewards.tolist())
print("A (std-normalized):", np.round(group_advantage(rewards), 3).tolist())
print("A (Dr.GRPO, no std):", np.round(group_advantage(rewards, False), 3).tolist())
# std-collapse case: every response identical
flat = np.ones(6)
print("A when all-correct (std collapse):",
np.round(group_advantage(flat), 3).tolist(), "-> zero gradient")
# --- KL estimator comparison ---
p = np.array([0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1]) # pi_theta
q = np.array([0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4]) # pi_ref (deliberately far)
true_kl = kl_exact(p, q)
print(f"\nExact KL[pi_theta || pi_ref] = {true_kl:.4f}")
rows = []
for n in (1, 4, 16, 64, 256):
trials = 20000 // n
m1 = np.array([kl_estimators(p, q, n)[0].mean() for _ in range(trials)])
m2 = np.array([kl_estimators(p, q, n)[1].mean() for _ in range(trials)])
m3 = np.array([kl_estimators(p, q, n)[2].mean() for _ in range(trials)])
for name, m in (("k1", m1), ("k2", m2), ("k3", m3)):
rows.append({"n": n, "estimator": name,
"mean": m.mean(), "bias": m.mean() - true_kl,
"std": m.std(),
"frac_negative": float((m < 0).mean())})
csv_path = OUT / "kl_estimators.csv"
with csv_path.open("w", newline="") as f:
w = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=["n","estimator","mean","bias","std","frac_negative"])
w.writeheader(); w.writerows(rows)
print("\n n est bias std frac<0")
for r in rows:
print(f"{r['n']:>3} {r['estimator']} {r['bias']:+.4f} "
f"{r['std']:.4f} {r['frac_negative']:.2f}")
print(f"\nArtifact: {csv_path.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python grpo_pieces.py
Watch the frac_negative column for k1: at a large fraction of single-sample k1 estimates are negative, which is the concrete face of "k1 is unbiased but noisy and violates the nonnegativity of KL." k3's frac_negative is exactly 0 at every (it is nonnegative by construction, the convexity argument in the derivation), and its bias stays near zero at every sample count while k2's bias is visibly nonzero and does not vanish as grows (bias is not a variance problem, so more samples do not fix it). That three-column contrast, k1 noisy and sign-violating, k2 biased, k3 clean on both, is the entire case for equation (8.3)'s choice, made numerically.
What you should see. For the advantage: the std-normalized advantages for [1,0,0,1,0,0] come out symmetric around zero with the two correct responses getting equal positive values and the four wrong ones equal negative values, the Dr. GRPO variant gives the same signs at a different (unnormalized) scale, and the all-correct group prints all-zeros, the std-collapse case that contributes no gradient. For the KL estimators: k3's bias column hovers at essentially zero for every while its std shrinks as grows (unbiased, consistent), k1 shares the near-zero bias but with larger std and a nonzero frac_negative at small , and k2 shows a persistent nonzero bias that more samples never remove. The CSV lets you plot bias-versus- for all three and see k2's flat bias floor against k1 and k3 converging to the true KL. This is the miniature of the two pieces the Part VII GRPO run assembles into a full training step.
Read this against [BRM] ch. 6-7, which build GRPO for reasoning models with the token-level implementation details and walk the DeepSeek-R1 recipe this chapter derives, and [RLHF] ch. 6 for how GRPO sits in the broader policy-optimization family alongside PPO. The primary sources are Shao et al. (2024) "DeepSeekMath" (which introduces GRPO, equation 8.2), the DeepSeek-R1 report (2025) for the reasoning application, Yu et al. (2025) "DAPO" for clip-higher and dynamic sampling, and Liu et al. (2025) "Dr. GRPO" for the length-bias and std-division analysis. Schulman's "Approximating KL Divergence" note is the source for the k1/k2/k3 estimators of equation (8.3).
"How to do PPO without the second neural network." GRPO's whole trick, told in one paragraph: PPO learns a value network just to compute a baseline, and that network is the thing most likely to blow your VRAM budget on a single GPU, so GRPO deletes it and gets the baseline for free by sampling a group of answers to the same prompt and comparing them to their own average. The post can carry the reader from "advantage is reward minus a baseline" through "the group mean is a baseline" to the two twists that make it work in practice, the k3 KL estimator (why the obvious estimator of KL is negative half the time and how a one-line convexity fix repairs it) and the length bias hiding in a denominator. The hook: the algorithm behind DeepSeek-R1 is, at its core, PPO with the expensive part replaced by "sample eight answers and grade on a curve."
RLVR: reinforcement with verifiable rewards
This is the chapter the whole thesis is built on, so I want to state its thesis plainly before deriving anything. Everything in Part V so far, the policy gradient, actor-critic, PPO's clip, GRPO's group baseline, is machinery for turning a reward signal into a better policy. RLVR (Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards) is a claim about where that reward signal should come from: not a learned reward model that approximates human preference and can be gamed, but a verifier, a program that checks whether an answer is actually correct. On tasks where correctness is checkable (math with a known answer, code that must pass tests, a proof a checker accepts, a format a parser validates), the reward is the verifier's verdict, and that changes the character of the whole enterprise. The reward is grounded, cheap, and un-hackable in the usual sense, and it turns the eval harness (Part III) into the training environment. That last sentence is the thesis: the thing that measures the model is the thing that trains it, and this chapter makes the identification formal. I will lay out binary and graded verifiable rewards, work carefully through the sharp and genuinely unsettled question of when RL adds capability over supervised fine-tuning, catalogue the failure modes that bite on real runs, and end with the formal statement of the loop that Part VII implements on the baseline machine.
Theory
Verifiable rewards, binary and graded
A verifiable reward is a function that takes a prompt and a completed response and returns a score computed by checking, not by a learned model's opinion. The cleanest case is binary:
For grade-school math this is "parse the final number and compare to the known answer"; for code it is "run the unit tests, reward 1 if all pass." Binary rewards are the sharpest possible signal (correct or not, no ambiguity) and they are what DeepSeek-R1-Zero used to bootstrap reasoning from a base model with nothing but rule-based checkers. But binary is also the sparsest signal, which is the source of half the failure modes below.
Graded rewards soften the cliff. Instead of all-or-nothing, return partial credit:
Code with 7 of 10 tests passing gets 0.7, not 0; a response in the right format but wrong answer might get a small shaping term for at least being parseable. Graded rewards give the policy a gradient to climb even before it produces a fully correct answer, which matters enormously for hard prompts where binary reward is zero for thousands of samples and the policy never gets a foothold. The tradeoff is that every shaping term is a surface the policy can exploit (reward the format and the model learns to emit perfect format around wrong answers), so graded reward design is where "verifiable" starts to leak back toward "hackable" and must be watched. The thesis default is binary where the task allows it and minimal, defensible grading where binary is too sparse to learn from.
The crucial property both share, and the reason RLVR is different from RLHF, is that is a fixed function, not a learned model with parameters. It cannot drift, it costs no VRAM (it is Python, or a subprocess), and it cannot be gamed by finding adversarial inputs to a reward network because there is no network. This is the single fact that makes the whole loop fit on one GPU, and I will cash it out in the vram-budget below.
When does RL add over SFT? The pass@k reshaping question
Here is the question that actually matters, and it is genuinely unsettled, so I will present it honestly rather than as settled doctrine. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on correct solutions already improves a model. What does RLVR add on top? There are two hypotheses, and the truth is some contested mixture.
Hypothesis A: RL reshapes the sampling distribution without adding new capability. The base (or SFT) model, sampled enough times, can already produce a correct solution to many problems it fails on a single try. Its pass@k (probability that at least one of samples is correct) is high even where its pass@1 is low. On this view, RLVR does not teach the model anything it could not already do; it concentrates probability mass onto the correct solutions the base model could already occasionally sample, converting pass@k performance into pass@1 performance.
Fix a prompt and let be the probability that a single sample from the policy is correct (pass@1). Assuming independent samples, the probability that at least one of samples is correct is
This is concave and saturating in : even a small gives high pass@ for large (with , pass@100 ). Hypothesis A says RLVR's effect is to raise toward a value the base model's pass@ curve already promised was achievable, without expanding the set of problems where . Concretely, if the base model has on a problem, RL can push near 1; but if (the correct solution is never sampled, at any ), RL has nothing to reinforce, because the policy gradient can only upweight trajectories it actually samples. This is the sharp, testable prediction: RL cannot create probability mass where there was exactly zero. The policy gradient only ever reweights sampled outcomes, so a solution the policy assigns probability zero gets gradient zero, forever. Under Hypothesis A, plot pass@ versus for the base model and the RL model: the RL model wins decisively at small (higher pass@1) but the two curves converge at large , because RL only moved mass around within the base model's already-reachable set.
Hypothesis B: RL can add genuinely new capability. The empirical picture is more complicated than Hypothesis A allows. Some studies (Yue et al. 2025, "Does RL Really Incentivize Reasoning Beyond the Base Model?") find exactly the crossover the derivation predicts, base model catching up at large , supporting A. Others find RL-trained models that solve problems the base model does not solve at any sampled within a large budget, and that improvements persist with continued training and better exploration, suggesting RL sometimes does more than reshape. The reconciliation most people now hold: RL's primary, reliable effect is pass@k-to-pass@1 reshaping (Hypothesis A is the safe bet for what you will observe on a modest run), but the reachable set is not truly fixed, because exploration (temperature, sampling, longer training, curriculum) can surface solutions that were effectively-but-not-exactly zero probability, and once sampled they can be reinforced into the model's repertoire. The honest thesis-committee statement is: on a single-GPU budget with modest compute, expect RLVR to mostly sharpen what SFT and the base model already make reachable, and treat any evidence of genuinely new capability as a claim requiring the large- pass@k control to substantiate.
This distinction is not academic for the thesis, it dictates the evaluation. If I only measure pass@1 I cannot tell reshaping from new capability, so the eval harness must report pass@k across a range of , which is exactly the statistics chapter of Part III feeding back into the RL chapter. The measurement and the training are the same instrument, again.
Failure modes
Three failure modes recur, and all three are consequences of the reward structure rather than bugs.
Reward sparsity. With a binary reward (equation 9.1) on hard prompts, the policy samples responses and all of them are wrong, so every reward is zero, the group mean is zero, the advantage (GRPO's equation 8.1) is zero, and there is no gradient. The model learns nothing from its hardest, most valuable problems. This is the flip side of "un-hackable": a verifier that says only "no" gives no direction to improve. Mitigations are graded rewards (equation 9.2, partial credit gives a foothold), curriculum (train on prompts near the model's current ability so groups have reward variance), and dynamic sampling (GRPO chapter, filter out all-zero groups so compute goes to prompts with signal).
Exploration collapse (entropy collapse). RL on a verifiable reward is a positive-feedback loop: the policy upweights what works, which makes it sample those things more, which gives it less diverse data, which narrows it further. Left unchecked the policy's entropy crashes, it commits to a narrow band of solution strategies, and it stops discovering. You see it as the entropy metric falling toward zero and the pass@k curve flattening because every sample is now nearly identical. Mitigations are the KL-to-reference penalty (GRPO's term keeps the policy from sprinting away from the diverse base model), clip-higher (DAPO, chapter 8, lets rare good tokens climb so exploration is not throttled by the upper clip), and entropy bonuses. The whole design tension of RLVR is exploit-versus-explore, and it is the bandit chapter's dilemma returning at the scale of a language model.
Reward hacking / specification gaming. Even a verifier can be gamed if it is a proxy for what you want rather than the thing itself. Reward the format and get well-formatted nonsense; reward test-passing and get code that special-cases the test inputs; reward answer-matching and get a model that learns to emit the answer string in a way the parser accepts without doing the reasoning. Verifiable reward is harder to hack than a learned reward model (there is no adversarial input to a frozen network), but "verifiable" is not "unhackable," it just moves the vulnerability from the reward model's weights to the verifier's specification. The mitigation is verifier hygiene: check the extraction is robust, hold out the reasoning from the reward where possible, and audit high-reward samples by hand, which is again an eval activity.
The eval-harness-as-environment framing
Now the framing the thesis lives on, stated carefully. In the RL formalism (Part V chapter 1) an environment is defined by a state space, an action space, a transition function, and a reward function. Claim: for RLVR on verifiable reasoning tasks, the eval harness is the environment, and every piece lines up.
The state is the prompt plus the tokens generated so far. The action is the next token. The transition is deterministic and trivial (append the token, the language model itself provides the dynamics). And the reward function is the verifier the eval harness already runs to score the model. This is the identification: the same harness that, in Part III, generated model outputs on a task set and scored them to produce an accuracy number, is, in Part V, generating rollouts and scoring them to produce a reward. Evaluation generates triples to report a number; RLVR generates the same triples to train on them. The harness does not know or care which you are doing. That is why the thesis title is "Evals as Rewards": the eval is not a separate measurement bolted onto training, it is literally the reward channel of the RL environment, and building one good harness gives you both your metric and your training signal from a single artifact. This is the whole architectural bet of the thesis, and it is what makes a serve-evaluate-score-train loop coherent on one machine.
Let be the policy (a language model), a dataset of verifiable prompts each with reference answer , and the verifier: a fixed program that scores a completed response against (equation 9.1 binary, or 9.2 graded). The RLVR environment is the tuple
and the reward function is the eval harness's scorer. The training objective is the expected verifier score,
optimized by GRPO (chapter 8) so no value model is needed. The loop that Part VII runs on the baseline machine (MSI Aegis R2, RTX 5080 16GB) is one iteration of stochastic optimization of (9.5):
- Serve. Load into vLLM. For a batch of prompts , sample a group of completions each (this is generation, the throughput bottleneck).
- Evaluate. Run the eval harness over the pairs exactly as it would to report a benchmark number.
- Score. The harness's verifier returns ; these rewards are the eval scores.
- Train. Compute group-relative advantages (equation 8.1), take a GRPO step on the clipped-plus-KL objective (equation 8.2), updating .
- Re-evaluate. Periodically run the harness as a held-out measurement (pass@1 and pass@k, per Hypothesis A/B) to track whether the policy is improving or merely reshaping, then return to step 1 with the updated .
The identity that makes this one loop rather than two systems is (the harness scorer). Steps 2-3 during training and step 5 as measurement call the same code. Evals are rewards.
Tooling
The tooling for RLVR is the assembly of everything Part III and Part V built: an eval harness that can both score and, structurally, serve as a reward function, plus GRPO from chapter 8. In practice the reward function passed to TRL's GRPOTrainer (its reward_funcs argument) is literally a Python callable with the signature (prompts, completions, **kwargs) -> list[float], and the whole thesis claim is that this callable should be your eval harness's scorer, not a RewardModel. For a math task it wraps the same answer-extraction-and-compare the harness uses to compute accuracy; for code it shells out to the same sandboxed test runner. Frameworks purpose-built for this (verl, and the reward-function ecosystems around it) formalize the verifier as a first-class component, but the minimal version is a function, and the minimalism is the point: a reward that is a function has no weights to store, no server to stand up, and no drift to monitor.
The reason "the verifier is a function" is load-bearing and not a throwaway: a learned reward model in the RLHF pipeline is a full neural network that must be held in VRAM during training, queried on every rollout, and (worse) is itself an approximation that the policy learns to exploit, which is why RLHF needs the KL leash so badly. Swapping it for a verifier removes an entire model from the resident set and removes the adversarial dynamic, because a frozen assert answer == expected has no gradient for the policy to hack toward. What remains hackable is the specification (the failure modes above), but that is a code-review problem, not a moving-target-model problem, and code review is something one person on one GPU can actually do. The whole reason RLVR democratized reasoning-model training is this collapse of "reward model" into "unit test."
RLVR is what makes the thesis fit in 16GB, and here is the accounting stated once, completely. A full RLHF-PPO setup on the baseline machine (RTX 5080 16GB, Blackwell) must hold four model-shaped things: policy (trained), value model (chapter 6), reference policy (KL), and reward model (scoring). RLVR-GRPO holds two: the policy (trained, ~12+ bytes/param in BF16) and a frozen reference (forward-only, ~2 bytes/param). The value model is gone because GRPO uses a group baseline (chapter 8); the reward model is gone because the verifier is a Python function with zero VRAM cost. Those two deletions, roughly, are what buy a 1.5-3B policy enough headroom to train with a real group size and sequence length on one consumer card. Record the actual resident peak with torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated() for your configuration (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver). The through-line of the entire book: the memory you save by making the reward a verifier instead of a network is exactly the memory that lets the loop close on one GPU.
Lab
The goal of this lab is to build the verifier-as-reward-function that the Part VII training loop plugs into, and to demonstrate the pass@k-versus-pass@1 distinction (equation 9.3) that decides whether RL is reshaping or adding capability, using a mock policy whose per-problem success probabilities I control. This is the measurement instrument the thesis loop's step 5 depends on, built and tested in isolation before any GPU is involved, so that when the real run produces pass@k curves I already know how to read them.
This is a uv project. From the repo root:
uv init labs/rlvr-verifier
cd labs/rlvr-verifier
uv add numpy matplotlib
"""RLVR building blocks: a verifiable reward function with the exact signature
GRPOTrainer expects, and the pass@k estimator that distinguishes RL's
distribution-reshaping (Hypothesis A) from added capability (Hypothesis B).
"""
from pathlib import Path
import csv, re
import numpy as np
OUT = Path("artifacts"); OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
# ---- The verifier: this IS the reward function passed to GRPOTrainer --------
def extract_answer(text: str) -> str | None:
"""Pull the final integer from a '#### 42'-style or last-number response."""
m = re.findall(r"-?\d+", text.replace(",", ""))
return m[-1] if m else None
def reward_func(prompts, completions, references, **kwargs) -> list[float]:
"""Binary verifiable reward (eq 9.1). Same code the eval harness scores with."""
out = []
for comp, ref in zip(completions, references):
pred = extract_answer(comp)
out.append(1.0 if pred is not None and pred == str(ref) else 0.0)
return out
# ---- Unbiased pass@k estimator (Chen et al. 2021 combinatorial form) ---------
def pass_at_k(n_samples: int, n_correct: int, k: int) -> float:
"""P(at least one of k drawn (without replacement) from n is correct)."""
if n_samples - n_correct < k:
return 1.0
# 1 - C(n-c, k)/C(n, k), exact big-int division of the binomials
from math import comb
return 1.0 - comb(n_samples - n_correct, k) / comb(n_samples, k)
def main():
# --- verifier smoke test ---
comps = ["The answer is #### 42", "so we get 41", "twenty (=20)"]
refs = [42, 42, 20]
print("reward_func:", reward_func(None, comps, refs)) # [1.0, 0.0, 1.0]
# --- pass@k curves for a 'base' vs an 'RL' policy over 50 problems ---
# Hypothesis A: RL raises pass@1 by concentrating mass, but only on problems
# the base model could already sometimes solve (p_base > 0). Where p_base=0,
# RL cannot help (zero gradient on never-sampled solutions).
n_problems, N = 50, 128
p_base = rng.beta(1.2, 4.0, size=n_problems) # many low, few high
p_base[rng.random(n_problems) < 0.2] = 0.0 # 20% truly unreachable
# RL sharpens reachable problems toward 1, leaves unreachable at 0.
p_rl = np.where(p_base > 0, np.minimum(1.0, p_base * 4.0 + 0.15), 0.0)
def curve(ps, ks):
cols = {}
for k in ks:
vals = []
for p in ps:
n_correct = rng.binomial(N, p)
vals.append(pass_at_k(N, n_correct, k))
cols[k] = float(np.mean(vals))
return cols
ks = [1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128]
base_curve, rl_curve = curve(p_base, ks), curve(p_rl, ks)
csv_path = OUT / "passk.csv"
with csv_path.open("w", newline="") as f:
w = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=["k", "base_pass@k", "rl_pass@k"])
w.writeheader()
for k in ks:
w.writerow({"k": k, "base_pass@k": base_curve[k], "rl_pass@k": rl_curve[k]})
print("\n k base RL")
for k in ks:
print(f"{k:>4} {base_curve[k]:.3f} {rl_curve[k]:.3f}")
print(f"\nRL wins at k=1 by {rl_curve[1]-base_curve[1]:+.3f}; "
f"gap at k=128 is {rl_curve[128]-base_curve[128]:+.3f} "
f"(converges: reshaping, not new capability)")
print(f"Artifact: {csv_path.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python verifier_and_passk.py
The pass_at_k here uses the unbiased combinatorial estimator (draw without replacement from samples), not the naive with an empirical , because plugging a noisy point estimate of into equation (9.3) is biased for small sample counts. Use the combinatorial form whenever you report pass@k from a finite number of generations, which you always are. And note the deliberate 20% of problems with p_base = 0: those are the ones RL provably cannot fix on this budget (zero probability means zero gradient), and they are why the base and RL curves both plateau below 1.0 at large . If your real run shows the RL model solving problems the base model never touches at large , that is the signature of Hypothesis B (genuinely new capability) and it is a claim worth double-checking, not assuming.
What you should see. The verifier smoke test prints [1.0, 0.0, 1.0]: the first completion's extracted answer matches, the second is wrong, the third parses 20 correctly (the reward function is doing exactly what the eval harness's scorer does). The pass@k table shows the RL policy winning decisively at (much higher pass@1, the reshaping payoff) while the gap shrinks as grows and the two curves converge at , the numerical signature of Hypothesis A: RL concentrated mass onto solutions the base model could already sometimes reach, but did not expand the reachable set (both plateau below 1.0 because of the 20% unreachable problems). This is the exact figure the thesis loop's step 5 produces on real data, and reading it correctly, "did pass@1 rise because we reshaped, or because we added capability," is the difference between a defensible thesis claim and an overclaim. The CSV is the artifact you carry into Part VII to compare against a real base-versus-RL pass@k measurement.
Read this against [RLHF] ch. 7, which covers reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, the reward-function-versus-reward-model distinction, and the reasoning-model recipes directly, and [BRM] ch. 6 for the reasoning-from-verifiable-reward construction in the DeepSeek-R1 lineage. For the pass@k debate, Yue et al. (2025) "Does RL Really Incentivize Reasoning Capacity in LLMs Beyond the Base Model?" is the key skeptical result behind Hypothesis A, and Chen et al. (2021) "Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code" is the source of the unbiased pass@k estimator in the lab. The Lambert overview and the Tulu/OLMo RLVR work are the applied references for building verifiers at scale.
"Your benchmark and your reward function are the same program." The one-idea version of the whole thesis: when a task is verifiable, the code that scores a model on the test set and the code that hands out reward during RL are literally identical, so building one good eval harness gives you both your metric and your training signal for free. The post can carry a reader from "reward models are neural networks you have to store and that models learn to hack" to "a unit test has no weights and nothing to hack," land the VRAM punchline (deleting the reward model and the value model is exactly what makes reasoning-model RL fit on a gaming GPU), and close on the genuinely open question that keeps it honest: does RL teach the model anything new, or just sharpen what it could already occasionally do? The hook is the collapse of two things everyone treats as separate, measurement and training, into one artifact, with a title that reframes a benchmark as a reward.
The post-training landscape
A pretrained language model is a spectacular autocomplete and almost nothing else. It has read a large slice of the internet and learned to continue text in a way that is statistically faithful to what it saw, which means it will happily continue a math problem with a plausible-looking wrong answer, continue a question with three more questions, or continue a polite request with a refusal it scraped from some forum. Everything I actually want from a model I use, following instructions, staying helpful, showing its reasoning, stopping when it is done, is bolted on after pretraining, in a phase the field calls post-training. This part of the book is about that phase done the way a single-GPU shop can afford it, and this opening chapter draws the map: what pretraining leaves me, what the canonical SFT then reward-model then RL pipeline adds, why the direct-alignment shortcut collapses two of those stages into one, and where reasoning training (the thing this whole thesis is chasing) actually sits on that map.
Theory
Pretraining sets the prior; post-training sets the behavior
Pretraining optimizes one objective, next-token prediction, over a corpus so large that the model has to learn general structure to compress it: syntax, facts, code, arithmetic patterns, the shape of an argument. I derived that objective in Part I as the per-token cross-entropy averaged over the corpus,
and the crucial thing about equation (6.1.1) is that it treats every token in the corpus as equally worth predicting. The model learns , the distribution of internet-shaped strings, and that is a prior over language, not a policy for being useful. The knowledge is in there. A base model can do arithmetic and cite facts. What it lacks is any reason to prefer the helpful continuation over the merely probable one, because during pretraining those were the same thing by construction.
Post-training changes the objective, not the architecture. I keep the same transformer and the same weights as a starting point, and I retrain (usually a small fraction of the weights, via the LoRA machinery of the next two chapters) against a signal that says which continuations are wanted. The three classical ways to supply that signal define the three classical stages, and they differ in exactly one respect: how expensive and how informative the supervision is.
The SFT then RM then RL pipeline
The pipeline that produced the first generation of instruction-following assistants has three stages, run in order, each consuming the output of the last.
Stage 1, supervised fine-tuning (SFT). I collect prompt-response pairs where the response is a demonstration of the behavior I want, and I train the model to imitate the response with the same cross-entropy objective as pretraining, except that I only score the response tokens (the masking derivation is the spine of the next chapter). This is cheap to run and its supervision is dense: every token of every demonstration is a gradient signal. Its ceiling is set by the demonstrations. The model learns to sound like the data, so if the data is a few thousand curated instruction-response pairs, I get an instruction-follower whose quality is bounded by those examples. SFT teaches format, tone, and the basic contract of "answer the question," and it is the cold start for everything that follows.
Stage 2, the reward model (RM). Demonstrations are expensive and they cap the model at human-writing quality. Preferences are cheaper: it is far easier for an annotator to look at two responses and say which is better than to write the ideal response from scratch. So I collect pairs , a "winner" and a "loser" for the same prompt, and I train a separate model, the reward model, to assign a scalar score that ranks winners above losers. Chapter 6.4 derives that training objective from the Bradley-Terry model of pairwise choice. The RM is not the thing I ship; it is a learned, differentiable stand-in for human judgment that I can query millions of times.
Stage 3, reinforcement learning (RL). Now I optimize the SFT model (the policy) to produce responses the reward model scores highly, using the policy-gradient machinery of Part V, with a KL penalty pinning the policy near the SFT model so it does not wander off into gibberish that happens to fool the RM. The canonical objective, the one the whole DPO derivation in chapter 6.5 starts from, is
The reward signal here is sparse (one scalar per whole response) and the optimization is on-policy: the model generates its own attempts and is graded on them, rather than being handed the answer. That is what lets RL push past the demonstration ceiling: the model can discover responses better than anything in the SFT set, as long as the RM can recognize them. It is also what makes RL finicky, because a sparse learned reward is exactly the kind of thing a capable optimizer learns to hack, a theme I return to in 6.4 and again in Part VII.
The ordering is forced by an information-versus-cost tradeoff. Write the supervision each stage provides as a number of bits per training example. SFT gives roughly tokens times bits of vocabulary constraint per example, dense and cheap, but every bit is a bit about imitating the demonstration, so the target distribution is capped at the demonstrator. A preference label gives exactly one bit per comparison (""), which is far sparser, but it is a bit about relative quality, a dimension SFT cannot express because SFT has no notion of "worse." RL then spends those quality bits on-policy, where the model's own samples supply the exploration that neither of the earlier stages had.
So the pipeline is a curriculum in supervision type: dense-imitation first to get a competent, on-format starting policy (you cannot usefully RL a base model that does not yet answer questions, because its samples are all off-distribution and the reward signal is noise); then a cheap quality signal distilled into an RM; then sparse on-policy optimization against that signal, fenced by the KL term of equation (6.1.2) so the dense knowledge from stages 1 and pretraining is not destroyed. Skip stage 1 and stage 3 has nothing coherent to explore from. Skip stage 2 and stage 3 has no reward to optimize. The order is not a convention, it is a dependency chain.
The direct-alignment shortcut
Stages 2 and 3 together are a lot of moving parts: a second model to train and hold in memory, a sampling loop, a KL estimator, a value function or a group-baseline, all of the PPO or GRPO plumbing from Part V. On a 16GB card this is genuinely painful, because the RM and the policy and the reference and the optimizer state are all competing for the same VRAM. The direct-alignment insight, which chapter 6.5 derives in full, is that for the specific objective in equation (6.1.2) you can solve for the optimal policy in closed form, substitute it back, and discover that the reward model is implicit in the policy itself. The upshot is a single supervised-style loss on the preference pairs, no separate RM, no sampling loop, no RL. DPO (Direct Preference Optimization) is the canonical member of that family, and it is why a single-GPU shop can do preference alignment at all: it turns stages 2 and 3 into one more SFT-shaped training run.
The tradeoff is real and I will be honest about it throughout: direct alignment optimizes against a fixed set of preferences (the ones you collected), so it cannot explore beyond them the way on-policy RL can. It is offline. For alignment-of-style it is usually enough and dramatically cheaper. For pushing capability on tasks where you can verify correctness, on-policy RL earns its cost back, which is exactly the regime this thesis lives in.
Where reasoning training sits
The reason this thesis exists is that a fourth kind of supervision changed the picture: verifiable rewards. If the task is a math problem or a unit-tested coding problem, I do not need a learned reward model at all, because I have a programmatic checker that says right or wrong with no ambiguity and no hackable slack (or much less of it). That collapses stage 2 entirely: the reward is a function I wrote, the same scorer my evals use. Stage 3 becomes RL against that verifier, which the field calls RLVR (reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards) and which Part V builds up to. The whole conceit of the book, evals as rewards, is the observation that the scorer in my eval harness and the reward function in my training loop are the same object viewed from two angles.
On the landscape, then, reasoning training sits like this. Pretraining gives the prior. SFT (chapter 6.2) is the cold start, and for reasoning models the SFT set is increasingly reasoning traces, long chain-of-thought demonstrations, sometimes distilled from a bigger teacher (chapter 6.7). LoRA and QLoRA (chapter 6.3) are how I afford any of this on 16GB. Reward models and DPO (chapters 6.4, 6.5) are the alignment-of-style branch I mostly do not need for verifiable tasks but must understand, because they are the intellectual parent of the RLVR objective and because reward hacking is the failure mode I have to defend against. Inference-time scaling (chapter 6.6) is the orthogonal axis: even with a fixed model, I can spend more compute per answer (sampling more, verifying, refining) and get better accuracy, and any honest comparison of a trained model against a base model has to hold that inference budget fixed. Distillation (chapter 6.7) is the pragmatic finale: at small scale, copying a good teacher's traces via SFT often beats running RL from scratch, and it is the natural extension once the core contract of the thesis loop is met.
That is the whole part in one paragraph. The rest of it fills in the derivations and the labs, but the map does not change: dense imitation to cold-start, a quality signal (learned or verifiable) to define the objective, on-policy optimization or its offline shortcut to chase that objective, and inference-time compute as a separate knob I must control for whenever I claim a delta.
Tooling
There is no single tool for "post-training." There is a small, coherent stack that the rest of this part uses, and it is worth naming now so the labs do not feel like they appear from nowhere.
The training side is three libraries that layer cleanly. PEFT (Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning) supplies LoRA and QLoRA: it wraps a frozen base model and injects the small trainable adapters chapter 6.3 derives. TRL (Transformer Reinforcement Learning) supplies the training loops shaped like each stage: SFTTrainer for stage 1, RewardTrainer for the RM, DPOTrainer for direct alignment, and PPOTrainer/GRPOTrainer for the RL stage. Unsloth sits underneath both as an optimization layer: it patches the model's attention and MLP kernels and its LoRA path with hand-written Triton kernels and a memory-frugal backward pass, which is what makes a 4B model trainable in 16GB rather than 24GB. On the baseline machine (MSI Aegis R2, RTX 5080 16GB Blackwell, 32GB DDR5, Ubuntu 24.04, NVIDIA 570-open) Unsloth is not optional; it is the difference between the labs running and OOM-ing. I dig into its internals in Part VII; here I just use it.
The evaluation side is the machinery I already built. The evalstats module from chapter 3.7 is the reused core: paired-difference tests and bootstrap confidence intervals over the thesis task suite, so that every "this fine-tune helped" claim in this part comes with an interval and a p-value rather than a vibe. Every lab from 6.3 onward closes the loop by running the frozen task suite before and after training and reporting the delta through evalstats, which is the concrete meaning of "evals as rewards" at the level of my own workflow: the eval is how I know the training did anything.
Everything is a uv project, one directory per lab, following the two-environment doctrine from Part 0: the training environment (Unsloth/TRL/PEFT, which pins a specific torch) stays separate from the inference/eval environment (vLLM, Inspect), because their dependency graphs fight. The landscape lab below only needs the light inference side.
Lab
The point of this lab is to see post-training, not to do it yet. A base model and its instruction-tuned sibling share an architecture and most of their weights, but post-training leaves fingerprints, and the two most legible ones are the chat template (the exact string format the model was tuned to expect) and the behavior on a bare instruction. I will load a base model and its instruct counterpart, dump both tokenizers' chat templates, and generate a short completion from each on the same raw prompt, then write the comparison to disk. This makes concrete the claim that the knowledge is already in the base model and post-training supplies the contract for getting at it.
This is a uv project. From the repo root:
uv init labs/landscape-fingerprint
cd labs/landscape-fingerprint
uv add transformers torch accelerate
"""Show the post-training fingerprint: chat template + raw-prompt behavior
for a base model vs its instruction-tuned sibling.
Writes artifacts/fingerprint.md and prints a short summary. CPU-runnable,
but far faster on the baseline GPU.
"""
from pathlib import Path
import torch
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer
# Same family, same size: only post-training differs.
BASE = "Qwen/Qwen3-4B-Base"
INSTRUCT = "Qwen/Qwen3-4B"
PROMPT = "Give me three tips for sleeping better."
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def load(name: str):
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(name)
model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(
name, torch_dtype=torch.bfloat16, device_map="auto"
)
model.eval()
return tok, model
@torch.no_grad()
def raw_continue(tok, model, prompt: str, n_new: int = 120) -> str:
"""Feed the prompt with NO chat template: pure autocomplete."""
ids = tok(prompt, return_tensors="pt").to(model.device)
out = model.generate(**ids, max_new_tokens=n_new, do_sample=False)
return tok.decode(out[0][ids["input_ids"].shape[1]:], skip_special_tokens=True)
@torch.no_grad()
def chat_answer(tok, model, prompt: str, n_new: int = 120) -> str:
"""Feed the prompt through the model's own chat template."""
if tok.chat_template is None:
return "(no chat template on this tokenizer)"
text = tok.apply_chat_template(
[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
tokenize=False, add_generation_prompt=True,
)
ids = tok(text, return_tensors="pt").to(model.device)
out = model.generate(**ids, max_new_tokens=n_new, do_sample=False)
return tok.decode(out[0][ids["input_ids"].shape[1]:], skip_special_tokens=True)
def main() -> None:
lines = ["# Post-training fingerprint\n"]
for label, name in [("BASE", BASE), ("INSTRUCT", INSTRUCT)]:
tok, model = load(name)
has_template = tok.chat_template is not None
lines.append(f"## {label}: `{name}`\n")
lines.append(f"- has chat template: **{has_template}**")
lines.append(f"\n**Raw autocomplete on {PROMPT!r}:**\n")
lines.append("```\n" + raw_continue(tok, model, PROMPT).strip() + "\n```\n")
lines.append("**Through the chat template:**\n")
lines.append("```\n" + chat_answer(tok, model, PROMPT).strip() + "\n```\n")
del model
if torch.cuda.is_available():
torch.cuda.empty_cache()
(OUT / "fingerprint.md").write_text("\n".join(lines))
print(f"Artifact: {(OUT / 'fingerprint.md').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python fingerprint.py
The base model often has no chat template at all (tok.chat_template is None), which is itself the point: the template is a post-training artifact, added by whoever did the instruction tuning, not a property of the architecture. If you force a chat template onto a base model by borrowing the instruct model's, you will get a plausible-looking answer, because the knowledge is present, but the model was never trained to honor the special tokens, so quality and stop behavior are unreliable. That mismatch, a template at inference the weights never saw in training, is one of the most common silent-failure modes in this whole part, and chapter 6.2 makes it a first-class citizen.
What you should see. The artifact artifacts/fingerprint.md lays the two models side by side. The base model's raw autocomplete on "Give me three tips for sleeping better." tends to continue the prompt as text, often with more list-like questions or a meandering paragraph, because equation (6.1.1) only ever taught it to be plausible. Its chat-template answer is erratic or empty because it has no template. The instruct model's raw autocomplete is already somewhat answer-shaped (post-training leaks into the base behavior), and its chat-template answer is a clean, bounded, three-item list that stops when done. Same architecture, same rough weights, one round of post-training in between: that visible gap is the entire subject of this part. Record wall-clock and peak VRAM for the 4B loads on your run (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver), since two 4B models in BF16 is about 16 GiB of weights alone and you may need to load them one at a time on the 16GB card, which the script already does by deleting each model before the next.
This chapter maps to [RLHF] ch. 1–3: ch. 1 for the framing of post-training as a distinct phase with its own objectives, ch. 2 for the SFT-then-preference pipeline as a whole, and ch. 3 for the problem setup and notation (policy, reference, reward, KL) that equation (6.1.2) uses and that every later chapter in this part inherits. Read those three alongside this map before diving into the derivations that start in 6.2.
"A base model already knows how to help you. It just has no reason to." The post that starts from equation (6.1.1), the claim that pretraining learns and not a policy, and walks the reader through the fingerprint lab: same 4B model, base versus instruct, same prompt, and the base one answers your question by asking three more. Then the reveal that the entire multi-billion-dollar apparatus of RLHF is three ideas stacked, imitate, rank, optimize, and that the cheap direct-alignment shortcut and the verifiable-reward variant are both just clever ways to skip the expensive middle. A whole field's shape in one screenful, anchored on a demo anyone can rerun.
SFT and instruction tuning
Supervised fine-tuning is the least glamorous stage in this part and the one everything else depends on. It is just next-token prediction again, the same objective from Part I, pointed at a small pile of curated prompt-response pairs instead of the whole internet. The subtlety is entirely in the details that a from-the-textbook description skips: which tokens actually get a gradient, how the prompt gets wrapped so the model recognizes it, how you pack short examples so you do not waste the GPU, and why a few thousand good demonstrations beat a few million scraped ones. Get those right and SFT is a reliable way to turn a base model into a competent instruction-follower and, more to the point for this thesis, into a cold-start policy that RLVR can actually explore from. Get the masking wrong and you will train the model to parrot your prompts, which is a bug that produces a loss curve that looks perfect and a model that is quietly broken. So this chapter derives the masked cross-entropy loss carefully, then builds a LoRA SFT of a 4B model end to end.
Theory
Chat templates are part of the data, not a wrapper around it
A base model saw raw text. An instruction model has to be told, in-band, where the user's turn ends and its own turn begins, and it learns that boundary from special tokens inserted by a chat template. A chat template is a deterministic function that takes a list of role-tagged messages and renders them into one flat string with delimiter tokens. Qwen3, for instance, renders a user turn roughly as <|im_start|>user\n...<|im_end|>\n<|im_start|>assistant\n, and the model is trained so that the tokens after that final assistant\n are its job to produce. The template is not cosmetic. It is the exact string distribution the model's post-training weights expect, and if I train with one template and serve with another (or serve a base model through a template it never saw, the gotcha from 6.1) the model is off-distribution and everything degrades. So in SFT the template is applied at training time, the same call the serving stack will make at inference, and the two must be byte-identical. This is why the labs always render through tokenizer.apply_chat_template rather than hand-building strings.
Masked cross-entropy: only score the completion
Here is the single most important idea in the chapter. An SFT example is a (prompt, response) pair, rendered by the template into one token sequence. If I trained the plain language-modeling loss of equation (6.1.1) on that whole sequence, I would be teaching the model to predict the prompt tokens too, which is worse than useless: it wastes capacity learning to generate the very questions I am going to hand it at inference, and it dilutes the gradient that should be teaching it to answer. The fix is a per-token mask that zeroes out the loss on the prompt and keeps it only on the response. Let me derive exactly what that does to the objective and the gradient, because the mask is not a heuristic, it is a change to the likelihood being maximized.
Take one rendered example as a token sequence . Define a binary mask that is on completion (assistant) tokens and on prompt (user/system/template) tokens. The autoregressive factorization of the whole sequence is unchanged,
but I do not want to maximize the joint likelihood of the sequence. I want to maximize the conditional likelihood of the response given the prompt. Split the sequence into a prompt part and a completion part (with exactly for in the simple single-turn case). The conditional is
where the last equality is the whole trick: multiplying each term by drops the prompt terms exactly, and the surviving terms are unchanged because already conditions on the full prefix , prompt included. Masking the loss does not hide the prompt from the model; the prompt still flows through attention as context. It only removes the prompt tokens as prediction targets. That distinction is the entire point.
Averaging over a dataset of examples and dividing by the number of scored tokens gives the SFT objective as a masked, length-normalized cross-entropy,
Now the gradient, so it is clear what the mask does to learning. With the logits at position and the predicted distribution, the per-position gradient of cross-entropy with respect to the logits is the familiar "prediction minus one-hot,"
where is the one-hot vector for the true next token. The mask multiplies the entire per-position gradient, so prompt positions contribute exactly zero to the update. Practically this means the loss you watch during training is an average over completion tokens only, and it is directly comparable across examples only if you normalize by as in equation (6.2.3), which is why the choice between per-token and per-example averaging (mean over tokens versus mean over sequences) actually changes what you optimize, and why mismatched normalization between two runs makes their loss curves incomparable.
The implementation of equation (6.2.4) in every framework is a sentinel label. The tensor of target labels is set to the true token id on completion positions and to a special ignore index (in PyTorch, -100) on prompt positions; torch.nn.functional.cross_entropy skips any position whose label is -100. So "masking the loss" is concretely "set the prompt labels to -100," and the single most common SFT bug is forgetting to do it, which trains equation (6.1.1) on the whole sequence and gives you a model that continues prompts instead of answering them.
Sequence packing
Instruction examples vary wildly in length. If I pad every example in a batch to the longest one, a batch with one 2000-token example and seven 200-token examples wastes roughly 78% of the compute on padding tokens that contribute nothing (their labels are -100 too). Packing fixes this: concatenate multiple short examples into one fixed-length sequence (say 2048 tokens), back to back, so there is little or no padding. The catch is attention. If example B is packed right after example A in the same 2048-token window, and I use ordinary causal attention, B's tokens can attend back into A, which is cross-contamination: B learns to "predict" its answer partly from an unrelated earlier example. The correct fix is a block-diagonal attention mask (often called an attention mask for packing, or handled by FlashAttention's variable-length cu_seqlens path) that forbids attention across the example boundaries, so each packed example attends only to itself.
Modern SFT trainers implement packing through FlashAttention's variable-length API rather than a materialized 2D mask. Instead of building a boolean mask (which would cost memory and defeat the purpose), they pass a cu_seqlens vector marking where each example starts and stops inside the packed buffer, and the kernel restricts each query's attention to its own segment. That is why packing with a naive attention_mask and packing with proper cu_seqlens can give different loss curves for the same data: the naive version leaks context across boundaries. TRL's SFTTrainer with packing=True on a FlashAttention-2 backend does the right thing; if you hand-roll packing you must supply the boundaries or you are training on contaminated context.
Packing buys real throughput (often 2 to 4 times, depending on your length distribution) at zero cost to correctness when done right, and on a 16GB card where every token of compute is scarce, that throughput is the difference between an overnight run and a two-day one.
Dataset quality over quantity
The uncomfortable empirical fact about SFT is that it is far more sensitive to the quality of demonstrations than to their count. The intuition follows straight from equation (6.2.3): SFT is imitation, so its fixed point is the demonstrator's distribution. A thousand carefully written, correct, well-formatted, stylistically consistent responses move the model toward a thousand-example-quality demonstrator. A million noisy, contradictory, format-inconsistent responses move it toward a noisy demonstrator, and no amount of them buys past that ceiling, they only teach the average of the mess. This is the "quality over quantity" result that repeated small-set fine-tuning studies keep rediscovering: a few thousand curated examples routinely beat orders of magnitude more scraped ones for instruction-following. For reasoning models the same logic applies with teeth, because a reasoning demonstration encodes not just the answer but a whole chain of thought, and one wrong step in a long trace teaches the model a wrong procedure, not just a wrong fact.
Hyperparameters that matter, and catastrophic forgetting
SFT has few knobs but two of them decide whether it helps or harms. The first is the number of epochs. SFT sets are small, and the temptation is to train for many passes to squeeze them, but a small set trained for too long overfits: the model memorizes the demonstrations, its held-out loss turns up while its train loss keeps falling, and it starts reproducing training answers verbatim regardless of the actual question. One to three epochs is the usual safe range, and I watch a held-out slice of the SFT data to catch the turn. The second is the learning rate, which for LoRA SFT (roughly to ) is much higher than full fine-tuning would tolerate, because the low-rank adapters of chapter 6.3 start from zero and need a large step to move at all. The deeper risk behind both is catastrophic forgetting: aggressive SFT on a narrow set can erode the broad capabilities pretraining installed, so the model gets better at your instruction format and worse at everything else. LoRA is itself a partial defense (the frozen base cannot be overwritten, only added to), which is one more reason every SFT in this book is a LoRA rather than a full fine-tune, and it is why I evaluate on the broad thesis suite after SFT and not only on held-out instruction data: the number I care about is whether general reasoning survived the cold start.
SFT as the cold start for RLVR
This is why SFT matters to the thesis even though the headline method is RL. RLVR optimizes the policy by having it sample attempts and rewarding the correct ones (Part V). That only works if the policy already samples correct attempts with nonzero probability often enough for the reward signal to be more than noise; if the policy solves the task 0% of the time, every sample gets reward zero and the gradient is flat. SFT on a modest set of correct reasoning traces (often distilled from a stronger teacher, chapter 6.7) lifts that base solve rate off the floor and, just as importantly, teaches the format the verifier expects (put the final answer in \boxed{}, use the <think> tags, stop cleanly). A model that reasons in the right format at a 15% solve rate is a workable cold start; a base model that emits the answer in an unparseable form at 2% is not. SFT is the on-ramp that makes the RL loop's reward signal informative, and getting the cold-start SFT right is the highest-leverage thing I do before any RL at all.
Tooling
The tool is TRL's SFTTrainer, wrapping a PEFT LoRA adapter, accelerated by Unsloth. SFTTrainer does four things that map directly onto the theory: it applies the chat template to render examples, it builds the completion-only label mask (via a data collator, so equation (6.2.3) is what actually gets optimized), it optionally packs sequences with correct boundary handling, and it runs the training loop with the usual optimizer and scheduler. PEFT supplies the LoRA adapter so I am training a few tens of millions of parameters instead of four billion (the math is chapter 6.3). Unsloth patches the whole stack, its FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained returns a model whose forward and backward are replaced with fused Triton kernels and whose LoRA path is memory-optimized, which is what keeps a 4B SFT inside 16GB.
The one piece of configuration that carries the whole masking derivation is completion-only training. TRL's DataCollatorForCompletionOnlyLM (or the assistant_only_loss/completion_only options depending on version) takes the response template string, finds where the assistant turn starts in each rendered example, and sets every label before it to -100. That collator is equation (6.2.4)'s mask made real; if you skip it and train on raw rendered text, you are back to the whole-sequence loss and the parroting bug. I verify it is on by inspecting a batch's labels before training, which the lab does.
Lab
The lab is a complete LoRA SFT of a 4B model on a small, high-quality instruction set, ending in a saved adapter on disk and a before/after generation. I deliberately keep the dataset small to make the quality-over-quantity point tangible: a few thousand examples, one short epoch, and a visibly more instruction-following model at the end. This adapter is also the literal cold-start artifact the later RLVR labs load.
This is a uv project in the training environment (kept separate from the eval/inference environment per the two-environment doctrine). From the repo root:
uv init labs/sft-4b
cd labs/sft-4b
uv add "unsloth[cu124]" trl peft datasets
# torch comes pinned by unsloth's extra; do not add it separately.
"""LoRA SFT of a 4B model on a small instruct set, on one 16GB GPU.
Produces a saved LoRA adapter in artifacts/adapter/ plus a before/after
generation sample. This adapter is the cold-start for the RLVR labs.
"""
from pathlib import Path
import torch
from datasets import load_dataset
from trl import SFTConfig, SFTTrainer
from unsloth import FastLanguageModel
MODEL = "unsloth/Qwen3-4B-Base"
MAX_SEQ = 2048
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def build_model():
model, tok = FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained(
model_name=MODEL,
max_seq_length=MAX_SEQ,
load_in_4bit=True, # QLoRA: base weights in NF4 (chapter 6.3)
dtype=None, # let unsloth pick bf16 on Blackwell
)
model = FastLanguageModel.get_peft_model(
model,
r=16, # LoRA rank
lora_alpha=32, # alpha = 2r, the common default
lora_dropout=0.0,
target_modules=[
"q_proj", "k_proj", "v_proj", "o_proj",
"gate_proj", "up_proj", "down_proj",
],
use_gradient_checkpointing="unsloth",
random_state=3407,
)
return model, tok
def format_and_mask(tok):
"""Split each example into prompt/completion message lists. SFTTrainer
renders them through the chat template and, on prompt-completion data,
masks the prompt tokens automatically (equation 6.2.4), so only the
completion is scored, without needing a pre-rendered `text` column."""
def fmt(ex):
user = ex["instruction"] + ("\n\n" + ex["input"] if ex.get("input") else "")
return {
"prompt": [{"role": "user", "content": user}],
"completion": [{"role": "assistant", "content": ex["output"]}],
}
return fmt
def main() -> None:
model, tok = build_model()
# A small, curated instruction set. Cap it to make the point that a few
# thousand good examples is enough for a usable cold start.
ds = load_dataset("yahma/alpaca-cleaned", split="train[:3000]")
ds = ds.map(format_and_mask(tok), remove_columns=ds.column_names)
cfg = SFTConfig(
output_dir=str(OUT / "run"),
max_seq_length=MAX_SEQ,
# No packing here: completion-only masking works cleanly on
# prompt/completion data, but packing a pre-rendered sequence would
# score the whole thing. Keep them separate (chapter 6.2 theory).
completion_only_loss=True, # equation (6.2.3): mask the prompt
per_device_train_batch_size=2,
gradient_accumulation_steps=8, # effective batch 16
num_train_epochs=1,
learning_rate=2e-4,
warmup_ratio=0.03,
lr_scheduler_type="cosine",
bf16=True,
logging_steps=10,
report_to="none",
seed=3407,
)
trainer = SFTTrainer(model=model, args=cfg, train_dataset=ds)
# Sanity-check the mask BEFORE training: prompt labels must be -100.
batch = trainer.data_collator([trainer.train_dataset[i] for i in range(2)])
scored = int((batch["labels"] != -100).sum())
total = int(batch["labels"].numel())
print(f"[mask check] scored tokens {scored} / {total} "
f"({100*scored/total:.1f}%), the rest are masked prompt tokens.")
trainer.train()
model.save_pretrained(str(OUT / "adapter"))
tok.save_pretrained(str(OUT / "adapter"))
# Before/after is really "with adapter" here; show one generation.
FastLanguageModel.for_inference(model)
prompt = tok.apply_chat_template(
[{"role": "user", "content": "Explain what a p-value is in two sentences."}],
tokenize=False, add_generation_prompt=True,
)
ids = tok(prompt, return_tensors="pt").to(model.device)
with torch.no_grad():
out = model.generate(**ids, max_new_tokens=120, do_sample=False)
sample = tok.decode(out[0][ids["input_ids"].shape[1]:], skip_special_tokens=True)
(OUT / "sample.txt").write_text(sample)
print(f"Adapter saved to {(OUT / 'adapter').resolve()}")
print(f"Sample generation in {(OUT / 'sample.txt').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python train_sft.py
Watch the [mask check] line before you let training run to completion. If it reports something near 100% of tokens scored, your completion-only masking is not active (the response-template match failed, common when the chat template's assistant marker does not match what the collator is looking for), and you are about to train the whole-sequence loss of equation (6.1.1) and get a prompt-parroting model. The fix is to make sure the collator's response template matches the exact assistant-turn opener your chat template emits. A healthy 4B SFT on Alpaca-style data usually scores somewhere in the 40 to 70 percent range depending on prompt/response length balance; the exact figure does not matter, but "essentially everything is scored" is the alarm.
What you should see. Training a LoRA over a 4B QLoRA base for one epoch on 3000 examples runs comfortably in 16GB (the QLoRA budget is chapter 6.3's vram-budget), and the masked loss from equation (6.2.3) should fall from somewhere around 1.5 to 2.0 nats/token to under 1.0 over the epoch, roughly monotonically, with the usual noise. The artifacts are a LoRA adapter directory (tens of MB, not GB, because you only saved the low-rank deltas) and a sample.txt whose answer to "Explain what a p-value is in two sentences" is now a clean, two-sentence, on-topic answer that stops, rather than the base model's meander. Record wall-clock, tokens/sec, and peak VRAM for the run (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver); on the RTX 5080 a 3000-example epoch of 4B QLoRA is a matter of minutes to low tens of minutes, and peak VRAM should sit a few GiB under the 16 GiB ceiling. This adapter is the cold start every later training lab in the book loads.
Pair this with [RLHF] ch. 4 for instruction tuning as the first post-training stage and the data-quality argument, and [BLLM] ch. 7, which builds instruction fine-tuning from scratch, including the label masking of equation (6.2.4) written out by hand. Raschka's from-scratch masking loop is the concrete, no-framework version of what TRL's completion-only collator does for you; read the two together and the -100 sentinel stops being magic.
"The most expensive bug in fine-tuning costs you nothing to write and everything to debug: you forgot to mask the prompt." A post built entirely around equation (6.2.4), the one-line difference between training a model to answer your questions and training it to ask them. Show the mask check, show the two loss curves that look identical, show the two models that behave nothing alike, and land on the deeper point that SFT is imitation, so its ceiling is your data, which is why three thousand good examples beat three million scraped ones and why the whole reasoning-model game starts with getting the cold-start traces right.
LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically
Full fine-tuning of a 4B model on a 16GB card is a non-starter, and the arithmetic says so before I even try: the weights alone in BF16 are 8 GiB, and the Adam optimizer state (two FP32 moments plus an FP32 master copy) is another four to six times the weight footprint, so I am tens of GiB over budget before a single activation is stored. LoRA and its quantized cousin QLoRA are the two ideas that make training on this hardware possible at all, and they are not hacks, they rest on a specific and testable hypothesis about the geometry of fine-tuning updates and a specific and clever data format for 4-bit weights. This chapter derives both: the low-rank reparameterization that turns a billion-parameter update into a few-million-parameter one, and the NF4 quantization that squeezes the frozen base into 4 bits without the usual catastrophe. Then it does the thing the whole book is about, a rank sweep measured with real eval deltas through the chapter 3.7 machinery, so the choice of rank stops being folklore and becomes a number with a confidence interval.
Theory
The low-rank update hypothesis
Fine-tuning changes a weight matrix into . The hypothesis behind LoRA is that for adapting a pretrained model to a downstream task, the update has low intrinsic rank, even though itself is full-rank. Intuitively, pretraining already learned the hard, high-dimensional structure of language; adapting it to "answer instructions" or "reason in this format" is a comparatively low-dimensional nudge, a rotation into a few task-relevant directions rather than a wholesale rewrite. If really lives near a rank- subspace with , then I never need to represent the full update, I can factor it.
Freeze the pretrained weight and constrain the update to be a product of two thin matrices,
The adapted layer computes, for input ,
Only and are trainable; never receives a gradient. Count the parameters: the full update has entries, the factored update has . For an illustrative attention projection () with , that is versus , an 80-times reduction per matrix, and it compounds over every targeted layer. Across the whole model, LoRA typically makes well under 1% of parameters trainable.
Two design choices make equation (6.3.2) behave. Initialization: is initialized from a small random Gaussian and is initialized to zero, so at step 0, and the adapted model is exactly the pretrained model. Training starts from the base behavior and moves away, rather than starting from a random perturbation, which is why LoRA fine-tunes are stable from the first step. The scaling: the factor decouples the learning-rate-like magnitude of the update from the rank. Without it, doubling would roughly double the norm of for the same scale, so you would have to re-tune the learning rate every time you changed rank. With it, sets the effective update strength and sets the capacity, and the two knobs are (approximately) independent. The gradient only flows into and :
and crucially the optimizer state (the memory-hungry part) is now sized to and , not to . That is the whole memory win: I still hold in VRAM to compute the forward pass, but I do not hold gradients or Adam moments for it.
Rank, alpha, and target modules
Three knobs follow from equation (6.3.1). Rank is the capacity of the update: how many independent directions can move in. Too small and the adapter underfits (it cannot express the task nudge); too large and you spend memory and risk overfitting a small dataset, with diminishing returns once exceeds the true intrinsic rank of the update. Common values are 8 to 64, and the rank sweep in the lab is exactly the experiment that tells you where the returns flatten for your task. Alpha is the update strength via the scaling; the common convention keeps the effective scale roughly constant as you vary rank, which is why the lab holds that ratio fixed so the sweep isolates capacity. Target modules is the set of weight matrices you attach adapters to. The attention projections (q_proj, k_proj, v_proj, o_proj) are the classic minimal set; adding the MLP projections (gate_proj, up_proj, down_proj) covers where most of a transformer's parameters and most of its task-specific capacity actually live, at more memory. For reasoning fine-tunes I target all seven, because the MLP is where a lot of the procedural knowledge sits.
NF4: quantizing the frozen base
LoRA shrinks the trainable footprint but I still hold the full in VRAM. QLoRA's second idea is to hold it in 4 bits instead of 16, using a format designed for the specific distribution neural-network weights actually follow. Pretrained weights are approximately zero-mean Gaussian, and a naive linear 4-bit grid (16 evenly spaced levels) wastes most of its levels in the tails where almost no weights live while under-resolving the dense center. NF4 (4-bit NormalFloat) fixes this by placing its 16 levels at the quantiles of a normal distribution, so each level is equally likely to be used, which is information-theoretically optimal for a Gaussian source.
NF4 is a per-block, quantile-based, 4-bit code. Build it in three moves.
1. Quantile levels. For a source with CDF , an information-optimal -level code puts its levels at evenly spaced quantiles. NF4 uses levels. To guarantee an exact zero (so that a true zero weight quantizes to zero, which preserves sparsity and symmetry), the levels are built from two one-sided quantile grids, levels for the negative side and for the non-negative side, merged and de-duplicated at zero:
evaluated on each side and then normalized so the levels span . The result is a fixed 16-entry lookup table, denser near zero and sparser in the tails, exactly matching where Gaussian weights concentrate.
2. Per-block absmax scaling. Real weights are not unit-variance, and their scale varies across the tensor, so NF4 normalizes in small blocks. Partition the weight tensor into contiguous blocks of elements (QLoRA uses ). For each block, compute the absolute maximum and store it as the block's scale. Each weight is normalized to and mapped to the nearest quantile level,
Storage per weight is 4 bits for the index, and the block shares one scale.
3. Double quantization. The block scales are themselves numbers, one FP32 per 64 weights, which is bits per weight of overhead, not negligible. Double quantization quantizes the scales too: it takes the FP32 block scales, groups 256 of them, and quantizes that group to 8-bit with its own single FP32 scale. The scale overhead drops from 32 bits per 64 weights to bits per weight, saving roughly bits per weight, about GiB on a 8B-parameter model, which on a 16GB card is real.
The net cost is bits per weight, and the reconstruction is used only in the forward and backward matmuls; the stored master remains the 4-bit code. Gradients flow through the frozen untouched (it is frozen) and into the BF16 LoRA adapters via equation (6.3.3), which is why QLoRA keeps 16-bit-quality adapters on top of a 4-bit base.
Take Qwen3-4B: call it parameters. All figures in GiB ( bytes). "Measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver" applies to every peak-VRAM claim; the numbers below are the arithmetic floor you reconcile against.
- Frozen base in NF4: bits/param bytes/param. B GiB.
- LoRA adapters (BF16), , all 7 target modules: roughly of trainable is a loose upper bound; concretely, summing over the targeted matrices lands near M params. Take B MB GiB.
- Adapter gradients (BF16): same shape as adapters, GiB.
- Adam state on adapters (FP32 , , + FP32 master): B GB GiB.
- Activations for the backward pass: the variable term, set by batch size sequence length hidden layers, and slashed by gradient checkpointing. For batch 2, seq 2048, checkpointed, budget on the order of GiB.
- CUDA context + kernels + fragmentation: GiB of overhead you do not control.
Floor sum: GiB, comfortably inside 16 GiB, with the activation term as the knob you turn (batch size, sequence length, checkpointing) if you approach the ceiling. Contrast full BF16 fine-tuning: weights GiB + Adam state GiB + activations, which is roughly + GiB and simply does not fit. That gap, GiB versus GiB, is why every training lab in this book is QLoRA.
The merge math, and when merging changes behavior
At inference I often want to fold the adapter back into the weights so there is no runtime overhead. From equation (6.3.2), the merge is exact in full precision:
If is stored in BF16, equation (6.3.6) is a lossless (to BF16 rounding) fold and the merged model is behaviorally identical to the adapter-on-base model. The subtlety is QLoRA. There, is stored in NF4, and the honest merge is : you must dequantize the base to BF16, add the BF16 update, and keep the result in BF16, because has structure far finer than the NF4 grid and re-quantizing the sum to NF4 would round the delta away. So merging a QLoRA adapter changes the base dtype (NF4 to BF16), which quadruples the base footprint and is exactly what you want for a clean deployable checkpoint, but it means "merge then re-quantize to 4-bit" is not the same model as "keep the adapter separate on the 4-bit base," and I have watched people lose their whole fine-tune to that round-trip. Keep the adapter separate for iteration; merge to BF16 only when you freeze a release.
Tooling
PEFT implements equations (6.3.1)–(6.3.3) as a LoraConfig (rank r, lora_alpha, target_modules, dropout) wrapped around a base model; bitsandbytes implements the NF4 code of equations (6.3.4)–(6.3.5) with double quantization behind load_in_4bit=True and the bnb_4bit_* flags; and Unsloth fuses the two so the NF4 dequant and the LoRA matmul happen in one custom kernel rather than two eager ops, which is where its speed and its extra memory headroom come from. merge_and_unload() on a PEFT model performs equation (6.3.6). The reused evaluation piece is chapter 3.7's evalstats: after each rank's fine-tune I run the frozen thesis task suite and pass paired per-item scores to evalstats.bootstrap_paired_diff (and evalstats.mcnemar for the paired p-value) to get a delta-versus-base with a 95% bootstrap CI, so the sweep produces intervals, not point estimates.
Lab
The lab sweeps LoRA rank over , fine-tunes the 4B QLoRA model at each rank on the same small reasoning-flavored set, evaluates each on the frozen thesis suite, and reports the eval delta versus the untuned base with bootstrap confidence intervals. The artifact is a CSV and a plot showing where accuracy stops improving with rank, which is the empirical version of "find the intrinsic rank of your task's update."
This is a uv project in the training environment. From the repo root:
uv init labs/lora-rank-sweep
cd labs/lora-rank-sweep
uv add "unsloth[cu124]" trl peft datasets matplotlib
# evalstats is the chapter-3.7 module, installed editable from the repo:
uv add --editable ../../packages/evalstats
"""LoRA rank sweep with eval deltas via the chapter-3.7 evalstats module.
For each rank in RANKS: QLoRA-SFT a 4B model, score it on the frozen thesis
suite, and compute the paired bootstrap delta vs the untuned base. Writes
artifacts/rank_sweep.csv and artifacts/rank_sweep.png.
"""
from pathlib import Path
import csv
import torch
from datasets import load_dataset
from trl import SFTConfig, SFTTrainer
from unsloth import FastLanguageModel
# chapter-3.7 machinery: paired bootstrap CI + McNemar over per-item scores.
import evalstats as es
# chapter-3.9 frozen suite: returns per-item 0/1 scores for a model.
from thesis_suite import score_model
MODEL = "unsloth/Qwen3-4B-Base"
RANKS = [4, 8, 16, 32, 64]
MAX_SEQ = 2048
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def train_one(rank: int):
model, tok = FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained(
model_name=MODEL, max_seq_length=MAX_SEQ, load_in_4bit=True, dtype=None,
)
model = FastLanguageModel.get_peft_model(
model, r=rank, lora_alpha=2 * rank, # hold alpha = 2r fixed
lora_dropout=0.0,
target_modules=["q_proj", "k_proj", "v_proj", "o_proj",
"gate_proj", "up_proj", "down_proj"],
use_gradient_checkpointing="unsloth", random_state=3407,
)
ds = load_dataset("yahma/alpaca-cleaned", split="train[:3000]")
# Prompt/completion message lists: SFTTrainer renders + masks the prompt.
ds = ds.map(lambda ex: {
"prompt": [{"role": "user", "content": ex["instruction"]}],
"completion": [{"role": "assistant", "content": ex["output"]}]},
remove_columns=ds.column_names)
cfg = SFTConfig(
output_dir=str(OUT / f"run_r{rank}"), max_seq_length=MAX_SEQ,
completion_only_loss=True,
per_device_train_batch_size=2, gradient_accumulation_steps=8,
num_train_epochs=1, learning_rate=2e-4, warmup_ratio=0.03,
lr_scheduler_type="cosine", bf16=True, logging_steps=25,
report_to="none", seed=3407,
)
SFTTrainer(model=model, args=cfg, train_dataset=ds).train()
FastLanguageModel.for_inference(model)
return model, tok
def main() -> None:
# Baseline scores once, from the untuned base model.
base, tok = FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained(
model_name=MODEL, max_seq_length=MAX_SEQ, load_in_4bit=True, dtype=None)
FastLanguageModel.for_inference(base)
base_scores = score_model(base, tok) # list[int], per item
del base
torch.cuda.empty_cache()
rows = []
for rank in RANKS:
model, tok = train_one(rank)
tuned_scores = score_model(model, tok) # paired, same item order
# Estimate(point, ci_low, ci_high): paired bootstrap of the delta.
est = es.bootstrap_paired_diff(tuned_scores, base_scores, level=0.95)
# McNemar for the paired p-value on binary correctness.
mc = es.mcnemar(tuned_scores, base_scores, exact=True)
rows.append({
"rank": rank,
"base_acc": sum(base_scores) / len(base_scores),
"tuned_acc": sum(tuned_scores) / len(tuned_scores),
"delta": est.point, "ci_lo": est.ci_low, "ci_hi": est.ci_high,
"p_value": mc.pvalue,
})
print(f"r={rank:3d} delta={est.point:+.3f} "
f"95% CI [{est.ci_low:+.3f}, {est.ci_high:+.3f}] p={mc.pvalue:.3f}")
del model
torch.cuda.empty_cache()
csv_path = OUT / "rank_sweep.csv"
with csv_path.open("w", newline="") as f:
w = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=list(rows[0].keys()))
w.writeheader()
w.writerows(rows)
# Plot delta vs rank with CI whiskers.
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
xs = [r["rank"] for r in rows]
ys = [r["delta"] for r in rows]
lo = [r["delta"] - r["ci_lo"] for r in rows]
hi = [r["ci_hi"] - r["delta"] for r in rows]
plt.errorbar(xs, ys, yerr=[lo, hi], marker="o", capsize=4)
plt.axhline(0, color="grey", lw=0.8)
plt.xscale("log", base=2)
plt.xlabel("LoRA rank r"); plt.ylabel("accuracy delta vs base")
plt.title("Rank sweep: eval delta with 95% bootstrap CI")
plt.tight_layout(); plt.savefig(OUT / "rank_sweep.png", dpi=150)
print(f"Artifacts: {csv_path.resolve()} and {(OUT/'rank_sweep.png').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python sweep.py
score_model must return per-item scores in the same item order for the base and every tuned model, because bootstrap_paired_diff and mcnemar compare matched pairs, that pairing is the entire reason the CI is tight enough to see a small delta (chapter 3.7 derives why paired resampling beats comparing two independent accuracy numbers). If you shuffle the eval set between runs, or the suite's sampling is nondeterministic, the pairing breaks and the CIs blow up. Freeze the suite (chapter 3.9 froze v1.0 for exactly this) and fix the eval seed so the only thing changing between runs is the rank.
What you should see. The CSV and plot show the eval delta versus the untuned base rising with rank and then flattening, the empirical signature of the low-rank hypothesis: once exceeds the task's intrinsic update rank, more capacity buys nothing and the confidence intervals of adjacent ranks overlap. Typically the delta from to is real (CI excludes zero) and the delta from to is within noise (CIs overlap), which tells you is the honest choice for this task, more is just memory. All five fine-tunes fit in 16GB by the vram-budget above, with peak VRAM creeping up only slightly with rank because the adapter and its optimizer state grow linearly in but are tiny next to the frozen base. Record peak VRAM per rank and total sweep wall-clock (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver). The headline artifact is a plot that turns "what rank should I use" from a Reddit argument into a measured curve with error bars.
This chapter is math-forward and mostly self-contained, but read it against [RLHF] ch. 4's treatment of parameter-efficient fine-tuning for the framing of why PEFT methods are the default in the post-training pipeline, and cross-reference the quantization theory in Part II ch. 3 of this book, where the general quantization-error math behind equation (6.3.5) is derived; NF4 is the special case of that theory tuned to a Gaussian weight prior.
"You are not fine-tuning four billion parameters. You are fine-tuning about thirty million, and the other 99 percent are frozen and squeezed into four bits each." A post that derives the two tricks that make single-GPU fine-tuning real: the low-rank hypothesis (equation 6.3.1, fine-tuning is a low-dimensional nudge, so factor it) and NF4 (equation 6.3.4, put your 16 quantization levels at the quantiles of a bell curve because that is where the weights actually are). End on the rank sweep with error bars, the measurement that shows the update really is low-rank, and the punchline that the whole 40-GiB-to-7-GiB gap between what fits and what does not is just these two ideas stacked.
Reward models and preference data
A reward model is the field's answer to a hard question: how do you turn "this response is better than that one," a judgment humans make easily and specify precisely never, into a differentiable scalar you can optimize against a billion times? You cannot ask annotators to write down a number on an absolute scale, because human absolute ratings are noisy, drift over a session, and are incomparable between people. But you can ask them to compare two responses and pick the better one, which is stable and cheap. The reward model is the machine that ingests a pile of those pairwise picks and emits a scalar score function consistent with them. The bridge from "pick the better one" to "here is a scalar" is a fifty-year-old model of paired choice, Bradley-Terry, and deriving the reward-model loss from it is the whole theoretical content of this chapter. It also matters even though this thesis mostly uses verifiable rewards rather than learned ones, because the RM loss is the direct ancestor of the DPO loss in the next chapter, and because understanding how a learned reward gets hacked is the thing that keeps me honest when my "verifiable" reward turns out to have a loophole.
Theory
Pairwise preferences as data
The raw material is a dataset of comparisons. Each record is a prompt and two responses, with a human (or a stronger model) label saying which is preferred. Write the preferred response as (winner) and the dispreferred as (loser), so a record is . That is deliberately minimal: no numeric rating, no absolute quality, just an ordering. The modeling question is how to explain a whole dataset of such orderings with a single scalar score function, and the answer requires a probabilistic model of how a latent score produces a noisy binary choice.
Bradley-Terry and the RM loss
Bradley-Terry is the model that says: each item has a latent positive "strength," and the probability that item beats item in a comparison is its share of the two strengths. For reward modeling, the latent strength of response given prompt is , i.e. the reward is the log-strength. That single modeling choice turns the pile of orderings into a likelihood I can maximize.
The Bradley-Terry model. Assign each response a positive strength . Bradley-Terry posits that the probability the winner is preferred over the loser is the winner's share of total strength,
Divide numerator and denominator by and the expression collapses into a logistic function of the reward difference. Let ; then
where is the logistic sigmoid. Equation (6.4.2) is the crux and it is worth pausing on: the preference probability depends only on the difference of rewards, never on their absolute level. This is the mathematical statement that a reward model is identified only up to an additive constant, because gives the identical preference probabilities. The RM has no natural zero, which is exactly why the RL stage of equation (6.1.2) needs a KL anchor to a reference and why "calibration" of an RM is subtle.
The loss. Given a dataset of independent comparisons, the likelihood of the observed preferences is . Maximizing it is minimizing the negative log-likelihood, which is the reward-model loss,
This is just binary logistic regression on the reward difference, with the "label" being "the winner won." Its gradient makes the training dynamics transparent:
The weight is the model's error: it is near 1 when the model wrongly scores the loser above the winner (large negative ) and near 0 once the winner is confidently ranked above the loser (large positive ). So training pushes up the winner's reward and pushes down the loser's, hard on the pairs it currently gets wrong and barely at all on the pairs it already ranks correctly. That self-limiting weight is why a converged RM does not blow the reward gap to infinity: correctly ordered pairs stop contributing gradient.
The architecture of a reward model
Concretely, a reward model is the pretrained (usually SFT'd) transformer with its language-modeling head replaced by a scalar head: a single linear layer mapping the final hidden state to one number. You feed the full sequence through, take the hidden state at the last token (or a pooled representation), and the scalar head reads off . Training initializes from the SFT model so the RM inherits its understanding of the domain, then optimizes equation (6.4.3) over the preference pairs. The batch structure is nice: each example is a (winner, loser) pair sharing a prompt, both are forwarded, the two scalars are subtracted, and the logistic loss is applied. Everything after the forward pass is a two-element logistic regression.
Calibration, and why RMs get hacked
Two failure modes matter, and they are two sides of one coin.
The first is miscalibration in the ordinary statistical sense: does the RM's confidence match reality? If the RM says for a set of pairs, are 90% of them actually won by the response it favors? A well-calibrated RM's stated preference probabilities match empirical win rates, and you check it the same way you check a classifier, with a reliability diagram. RMs are frequently overconfident, especially out of the distribution of pairs they were trained on, which matters because the RL stage will drive the policy into exactly those out-of-distribution regions.
The second, and the one that actually bites, is reward hacking, and equation (6.4.3) explains why it is inevitable rather than a bug. The RM is trained to be correct on the distribution of pairs it saw, which are pairs of reasonable SFT-model outputs. The RL policy of equation (6.1.2), by construction, searches for the highest-reward response it can find, which means it actively seeks out the regions where the RM is wrong in the optimistic direction, responses the RM scores highly that a human would not actually prefer. Since the RM only ever learned the reward difference on in-distribution pairs (equation 6.4.2 has no absolute anchor), it extrapolates arbitrarily outside them, and the optimizer exploits every one of those extrapolation errors. This is Goodhart's law made mechanical: the RM is a proxy for human preference, optimizing the proxy hard turns the proxy into a target, and the correlation between proxy and true preference breaks exactly where the optimizer pushes. The symptoms are familiar: length exploitation (the RM learned "longer is often better" and the policy generates padding), format tics, sycophancy, confident-sounding wrongness. The KL penalty in equation (6.1.2) is the main defense, it keeps the policy near the distribution where the RM is still trustworthy, but a strong enough optimizer with a loose enough will find the holes.
The most common RM hack is length, and it is subtle because it is partly real: in the preference data, longer answers genuinely are better on average (they are more thorough), so the RM correctly learns a positive length-reward correlation. The policy then discovers it can raise reward just by padding, which is not what the annotators meant. If you see mean response length climbing over RL steps while human-judged quality is flat, that is length hacking, and it is why serious RM pipelines length-normalize the reward or add explicit length penalties. The deeper lesson for this thesis: this is exactly the argument for verifiable rewards. A unit-test-passes reward or a boxed-answer-correct reward has far less exploitable slack than a learned RM, which is the whole reason RLVR is more stable on a small budget than classic RLHF. But "far less" is not "none," and Part VII's reward-hacking chapter shows the verifier loopholes that survive.
The quality of preference data, and ensembling as a hedge
Two practical levers decide whether an RM is worth anything, and both follow from the loss. The first is the agreement rate of the preference labels. Equation (6.4.3) treats every pair as a clean vote, but human annotators agree with each other only some fraction of the time (inter-annotator agreement on open-ended preference is often in the 60 to 75 percent range), and that label noise sets a ceiling: an RM cannot be more reliable than the signal it was trained on, and a pair where annotators split 50/50 is teaching the model a coin flip. The mitigation is to filter to high-agreement pairs, or to weight pairs by annotator confidence, which is the RM-stage version of chapter 6.2's quality-over-quantity rule. The second lever is distribution coverage: the RM is trustworthy only where it has seen pairs, and the RL optimizer will drive the policy toward the edges of that coverage (that is the whole hacking mechanism), so preference data should span the response styles the policy might explore, not just the ones the SFT model currently produces.
A common hedge against both label noise and coverage gaps is a reward-model ensemble: train several RMs on different data subsets or seeds and combine their scores, often taking the mean minus a multiple of the disagreement (a lower-confidence-bound reward). The intuition is directly anti-hacking: where the RMs agree, the reward is trustworthy; where they disagree, the policy is probing a region none of them learned well, and penalizing disagreement steers the optimizer back toward the trustworthy interior. Ensembling costs more memory, which on 16GB is exactly the constraint that pushes me toward verifiable rewards instead, but it is the standard answer when a learned reward is unavoidable, and it is worth knowing because a single-RM pipeline with no disagreement signal is the one that gets hacked silently.
Why this chapter matters even when I do not train an RM
For verifiable reasoning tasks I mostly skip the RM entirely and use a programmatic checker, so why derive all this? Three reasons. First, the DPO loss of chapter 6.5 is equation (6.4.3) with a specific reward substituted in, and you cannot understand DPO's implicit reward without the Bradley-Terry starting point here. Second, reward hacking is the central risk of the whole "evals as rewards" thesis, and equations (6.4.2)–(6.4.4) are the cleanest place to see why optimizing a learned proxy is structurally different from optimizing a verifier. Third, plenty of real reasoning setups use a hybrid, a verifier for correctness plus a learned reward or judge for style or process, and the moment a learned component enters the reward, the hacking analysis applies. So the RM is both a tool I sometimes use and the theoretical object the next two chapters are built out of.
Tooling
TRL's RewardTrainer implements equation (6.4.3) directly. It expects a dataset of chosen/rejected text pairs, wraps the base model with AutoModelForSequenceClassification (num_labels=1, which is the scalar head), forwards both members of each pair, and applies the logistic loss on the score difference. PEFT LoRA sits on top exactly as in SFT, so an RM is trainable in the same 16GB budget as chapter 6.3's SFT, the scalar head is a rounding error on top of the frozen base. Evaluation of an RM is preference accuracy on a held-out split (what fraction of held-out pairs does it rank correctly), and I run that through chapter 3.7's evalstats.bootstrap_mean for a confidence interval and, for RM-A-versus-RM-B comparisons, evalstats.mcnemar on the per-pair correctness, because "RM A is 2 points better" is exactly the kind of noisy paired claim that chapter exists to discipline.
Lab
The lab trains a small reward model on a preference set, then does the thing that makes the theory tangible: it plots a reliability diagram (calibration) and demonstrates a length hack by measuring the correlation between response length and assigned reward. The artifact is the trained RM plus a calibration/length report, which is the evidence base for "this RM is trustworthy in-distribution and here is exactly the axis along which it will be gamed."
This is a uv project in the training environment. From the repo root:
uv init labs/reward-model
cd labs/reward-model
uv add "unsloth[cu124]" trl peft datasets numpy matplotlib
uv add --editable ../../packages/evalstats
"""Train a small LoRA reward model from Bradley-Terry (equation 6.4.3),
then audit it: preference accuracy with a CI, a calibration curve, and a
length-hack correlation. Artifacts land in artifacts/.
"""
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
import torch
from datasets import load_dataset
from peft import LoraConfig, prepare_model_for_kbit_training
from transformers import (
AutoModelForSequenceClassification, AutoTokenizer, BitsAndBytesConfig,
)
from trl import RewardConfig, RewardTrainer
import evalstats as es
MODEL = "Qwen/Qwen3-4B" # SFT'd base; RM head added below
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def main() -> None:
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(MODEL)
if tok.pad_token is None:
tok.pad_token = tok.eos_token
# num_labels=1 IS the scalar reward head r_phi(x, y). Quantize the base
# explicitly: bare load_in_4bit=True on from_pretrained is deprecated and
# defaults to fp4, so pass a BitsAndBytesConfig pinning NF4 (chapter 6.3).
bnb = BitsAndBytesConfig(
load_in_4bit=True, bnb_4bit_quant_type="nf4",
bnb_4bit_compute_dtype=torch.bfloat16,
)
model = AutoModelForSequenceClassification.from_pretrained(
MODEL, num_labels=1, torch_dtype=torch.bfloat16,
quantization_config=bnb, device_map="auto",
)
model.config.pad_token_id = tok.pad_token_id
# Prepare the quantized base for k-bit LoRA training (casts norms, enables
# gradient checkpointing input grads); RewardTrainer adds the adapter below.
model = prepare_model_for_kbit_training(model)
lora = LoraConfig(
r=16, lora_alpha=32, lora_dropout=0.0, task_type="SEQ_CLS",
target_modules=["q_proj", "k_proj", "v_proj", "o_proj",
"gate_proj", "up_proj", "down_proj"],
)
ds = load_dataset("trl-lib/ultrafeedback_binarized", split="train[:4000]")
eval_ds = load_dataset("trl-lib/ultrafeedback_binarized", split="test[:800]")
cfg = RewardConfig(
output_dir=str(OUT / "run"), per_device_train_batch_size=2,
gradient_accumulation_steps=8, num_train_epochs=1,
learning_rate=1e-4, bf16=True, max_length=1024,
logging_steps=25, report_to="none",
)
trainer = RewardTrainer(
model=model, args=cfg, processing_class=tok,
train_dataset=ds, peft_config=lora,
)
trainer.train()
trainer.save_model(str(OUT / "rm"))
# ---- Audit the RM on the held-out split ----
# With peft_config, the trained scalar head lives on the PEFT-wrapped model,
# not the bare `model` handle above; audit trainer.model (or merge first).
rm = trainer.model
rm.eval()
@torch.no_grad()
def reward(text: str) -> float:
ids = tok(text, return_tensors="pt", truncation=True,
max_length=1024).to(rm.device)
return float(rm(**ids).logits.squeeze())
correct, deltas, lengths_pref = [], [], []
for ex in eval_ds:
# ultrafeedback_binarized stores chosen/rejected as message lists;
# render them through the chat template before scoring or measuring length.
chosen = tok.apply_chat_template(ex["chosen"], tokenize=False)
rejected = tok.apply_chat_template(ex["rejected"], tokenize=False)
rw = reward(chosen)
rl = reward(rejected)
correct.append(1 if rw > rl else 0)
deltas.append(rw - rl)
# length-hack probe: reward vs char length of the chosen response
lengths_pref.append((len(chosen), rw))
acc = es.bootstrap_mean(correct, level=0.95)
print(f"pref accuracy = {acc.point:.3f} "
f"95% CI [{acc.ci_low:.3f}, {acc.ci_high:.3f}]")
# Calibration: bin by predicted P(win) = sigmoid(delta), compare to empirical.
p_win = 1 / (1 + np.exp(-np.array(deltas)))
bins = np.linspace(0, 1, 11)
idx = np.digitize(p_win, bins) - 1
rel = []
for b in range(10):
m = idx == b
if m.sum() > 0:
rel.append(((bins[b] + bins[b + 1]) / 2,
float(np.mean(np.array(correct)[m])), int(m.sum())))
# Length hack: Pearson correlation between response length and reward.
L = np.array([a for a, _ in lengths_pref], float)
R = np.array([b for _, b in lengths_pref], float)
length_corr = float(np.corrcoef(L, R)[0, 1])
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(10, 4))
xs = [r[0] for r in rel]; ys = [r[1] for r in rel]
ax[0].plot([0, 1], [0, 1], "k--", lw=0.8, label="perfect")
ax[0].plot(xs, ys, "o-", label="RM")
ax[0].set_xlabel("predicted P(chosen wins)"); ax[0].set_ylabel("empirical win rate")
ax[0].set_title("Reliability diagram"); ax[0].legend()
ax[1].scatter(L, R, s=4, alpha=0.3)
ax[1].set_xlabel("chosen response length (chars)"); ax[1].set_ylabel("reward")
ax[1].set_title(f"Length vs reward (r = {length_corr:+.2f})")
fig.tight_layout(); fig.savefig(OUT / "rm_audit.png", dpi=150)
(OUT / "rm_audit.txt").write_text(
f"pref_accuracy {acc.point:.4f} CI [{acc.ci_low:.4f}, {acc.ci_high:.4f}]\n"
f"length_reward_pearson {length_corr:+.4f}\n")
print(f"Artifacts: {(OUT / 'rm').resolve()}, {(OUT / 'rm_audit.png').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python train_rm.py
RewardTrainer does not compute per-token anything; it forwards the chosen and rejected sequences, reads the scalar at the final non-pad position of each, subtracts them to form , and applies -log_sigmoid(delta), which is equation (6.4.3) verbatim. The reason the pad token id must be set on the model config is that "final non-pad position" is where the scalar head is read, and a wrong pad id reads the score off a padding token, which silently trains garbage. If your RM accuracy sits at chance (0.5) with a falling loss, check the pad handling first; it is the single most common RM-training footgun.
What you should see. After one epoch on 4000 pairs, held-out preference accuracy should land somewhere in the 0.65 to 0.75 range with a bootstrap CI a few points wide (a perfect RM is not the goal; beating chance decisively is). The reliability diagram should track the diagonal loosely in the middle and sag away from it at the confident ends, the visible signature of the overconfidence that RL will later exploit. The length-versus-reward scatter will show a positive Pearson correlation, often in the 0.2 to 0.4 range, which is the length hack sitting right there in the trained reward: the model has learned, partly correctly and partly exploitably, that longer chosen responses score higher, and that is the exact axis a policy would game under equation (6.1.2). Record training wall-clock and peak VRAM (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver); the RM trains in the same envelope as the chapter 6.3 SFT because the scalar head is negligible. The artifacts, the saved RM and rm_audit.png, are the evidence that this reward is useful in-distribution and precisely where it is not.
Pair this with [RLHF] ch. 5, the reward-modeling chapter: it develops Bradley-Terry (equation 6.4.1), the logistic RM loss (equation 6.4.3), the practical architecture of the scalar head, and the calibration-and-hacking discussion at length, and it is the reference the next chapter's DPO derivation assumes you have read, because DPO is this loss with the reward re-expressed through the policy.
"You can't teach a model what 'good' means, but you can teach it to break ties, and that turns out to be enough, right up until it isn't." A post that derives the reward model from Bradley-Terry (equation 6.4.2, the preference depends only on the difference of scores, so a reward model has no natural zero) and then shows the trap baked into equation (6.4.3): the RM is only correct on the pairs it saw, an RL optimizer's entire job is to find responses the RM scores highly, so it hunts down exactly the RM's blind spots. Close on the length-hack scatter from the lab, a real trained reward that quietly loves long answers, as the concrete face of Goodhart's law and the reason verifiable rewards exist.
Direct alignment: DPO and family
The reward-model-then-RL pipeline of the last two chapters is correct, powerful, and a genuine pain to run on one GPU: a separate reward model to train and hold in memory, a sampling loop, a value function or group baseline, a KL estimator, and all the PPO or GRPO plumbing from Part V, with the policy and reference and reward all fighting for 16 GiB. Direct Preference Optimization is the observation that for the specific RLHF objective in equation (6.1.2) you do not need any of that. You can solve the constrained optimization in closed form, notice that the reward model is implicit in the optimal policy, invert the relationship, and substitute it back into the Bradley-Terry loss of the last chapter. What drops out is a single supervised-looking loss on preference pairs with no reward model, no sampling, and no RL loop at all. This chapter derives that in full, because the derivation is one of the most elegant results in post-training and because the implicit reward it exposes is the concept that makes sense of the entire variant zoo (IPO, KTO, ORPO) that followed. Then I am honest about when DPO's offline nature costs you and on-policy RL earns its keep, which for this thesis is most of the time.
Theory
The RLHF objective has a closed-form optimum
Start from the KL-regularized reward-maximization objective, equation (6.1.2), the thing PPO spends thousands of GPU-hours approximating. The key fact is that this objective, for a fixed reward function , has an exact closed-form solution for the optimal policy. Deriving it is the first half of DPO.
Fix a prompt and a reward . The objective for the policy is
Write the KL out as an expectation and pull everything under one . Maximizing (6.5.1) is minimizing its negative:
Now the trick: fold the reward into the log by defining a normalized target distribution. Introduce the partition function
and define
is a valid probability distribution by construction ( normalizes it). Substitute (6.5.4) into (6.5.2) by adding and subtracting ; the objective becomes
does not depend on , so the whole problem is: minimize a KL divergence to . A KL divergence is minimized (to zero, its floor) exactly when the two distributions are equal. Therefore the optimal policy is
Equation (6.5.6) is exact and completely general: for any reward, the RLHF-optimal policy is the reference distribution reweighted by the exponentiated reward. PPO exists only because is an intractable sum over all sequences, so you cannot write down and sample from it directly. DPO's move is to not sample from it at all.
Inverting the reward: the implicit reward
Equation (6.5.6) says the optimal policy is a function of the reward. DPO reads it the other way: solve for the reward as a function of the optimal policy. This is the pivot of the whole method.
Take the log of equation (6.5.6) and solve for :
Equation (6.5.8) is the implicit reward: any reward function is recoverable from its optimal policy as times the log-ratio of that policy to the reference, plus a prompt-dependent constant . Now identify the optimal policy with the policy we are training, (this is the modeling assumption: we assume our model is the optimum for some reward, and we solve for the that makes that reward fit the data). Define the DPO implicit reward
Now plug this into the Bradley-Terry preference model from chapter 6.4. Recall equation (6.4.2): the preference probability depends only on the difference of rewards. Take the difference of the implicit rewards for the winner and loser of a preference pair:
Here is the miracle. The intractable constant from equation (6.5.8) is the same for both and (it depends only on the prompt ), so it cancels in the difference. The partition function that forced PPO to exist has vanished. Substitute equation (6.5.10) into the Bradley-Terry loss of equation (6.4.3):
Equation (6.5.11) is DPO. It is the reward-model loss of chapter 6.4 with the reward replaced by the policy-versus-reference log-ratio. There is no reward model (the reward is implicit in ), no sampling loop (you use the fixed preference pairs), and no RL (it is a supervised loss you backprop through directly). You need only the trained policy and a frozen copy of the reference, and you evaluate four log-probabilities per pair: and on each of and .
Reading the DPO gradient
The loss is elegant; its gradient is what tells you what it actually does.
Let be the implicit-reward margin. Differentiating equation (6.5.11),
Read it in three parts. The bracket is "increase the log-prob of the winner, decrease the log-prob of the loser," the intuitively obvious thing. The weight is the implicit-reward error: it is large when the current model has the margin wrong (loser ranked above winner, ) and small once the winner is confidently preferred (), so DPO, like the RM loss it descends from, spends its gradient on the pairs it currently gets wrong and coasts on the ones it has learned. The terms have no in them so they vanish from the gradient, but they are not inert: they set the reference point in , which is why DPO does not simply maximize winner-probability and minimize loser-probability without bound (that would be the unregularized limit). The reference keeps the update anchored, playing exactly the role the KL term played in equation (6.5.1); is the same regularization strength, now a plain loss coefficient.
A subtlety worth flagging, because it bites in practice: nothing in equation (6.5.12) forces the winner's absolute probability up. The loss only cares about the margin, so a common DPO failure is that both and fall over training, the loser just falls faster. The model gets the preference right while making the winning responses themselves less likely, which can degrade generation quality even as the DPO metrics improve. This is one of the motivations for the variant zoo below, and it is why I watch the raw chosen-logprob, not just the loss.
When DPO, when RL
DPO's price for its elegance is that it is offline. It optimizes against a fixed set of preference pairs collected once; it never samples new responses from the current policy and never gets fresh judgment on them. On-policy RL (PPO, GRPO, RLVR) does exactly that: it samples from the current policy and scores those samples, so it can discover and reinforce responses better than anything in a static dataset, and it keeps getting signal in the regions the policy actually drifts into. The tradeoff shakes out cleanly. DPO wins when you have good preference data and want alignment-of-style cheaply, it is dramatically simpler and lighter, one training run, no sampling, fits a 16GB card with room to spare. On-policy RL wins when you can verify correctness and want to push capability past the data, because the exploration is the whole point and a verifier gives clean per-sample signal, which is precisely the RLVR regime this thesis targets. So for this book, DPO is the method I understand deeply and reach for on preference-style tasks, and GRPO-on-verifiable-rewards (Part V and Part VII) is the workhorse for the reasoning delta. They are not competitors so much as two points on the offline-to-online axis.
The variant zoo
The implicit-reward view of equation (6.5.9) generates the whole family; each variant changes one modeling choice.
- IPO (Identity Preference Optimization) replaces the logistic Bradley-Terry link with a squared loss on the margin, targeting a fixed margin rather than pushing toward 1. This addresses DPO's tendency to overfit deterministic preferences (when a pair is always labeled the same way, the logistic loss wants , which IPO's bounded target prevents).
- KTO (Kahneman-Tversky Optimization) drops the pairwise requirement entirely: it works from unpaired binary "good response / bad response" labels using a prospect-theory-inspired value function. This matters because paired data is expensive and unpaired thumbs-up/down signal is everywhere; KTO trades the clean Bradley-Terry footing for cheaper supervision.
- ORPO (Odds Ratio Preference Optimization) folds the SFT and preference stages into one loss with no reference model at all, adding an odds-ratio preference penalty to the ordinary SFT cross-entropy. No reference copy means less memory and one fewer stage, at the cost of the clean KL-anchor interpretation.
The through-line: DPO showed that preference alignment is a supervised loss in disguise, and every variant is a different answer to "which supervised loss, on which data, with which anchor." Understanding equation (6.5.11) is understanding all of them.
Two knobs that decide whether DPO works: beta and length normalization
Two practical choices dominate DPO outcomes, and both fall out of the derivation rather than being tuning folklore. The first is , which equation (6.5.9) reveals is not a learning rate but the strength of the reference anchor, the same that scaled the KL term in equation (6.5.1). A small (say 0.01) lets the policy move far from the reference, which chases the preferences hard and risks the degenerate "both logprobs collapse" regime; a large (say 0.5) keeps the policy tightly pinned to the SFT model, which is safe but barely moves. The typical 0.1 is a compromise, and the right value depends on how much you trust your preference data: trustworthy pairs justify a smaller , noisy pairs demand a larger one. The second knob is length normalization. The implicit reward of equation (6.5.9) is a sum of per-token log-ratios, so it scales with sequence length, which means DPO inherits the exact length bias I warned about for reward models in chapter 6.4: if winners are systematically longer than losers, the margin can be raised by length alone. This is why length-normalized variants (dividing each log-ratio by its token count, as in the "R-DPO" and SimPO-style corrections) exist, and why I watch mean response length over DPO training the same way I watch it over RL. A DPO run whose "improvement" is entirely a length increase is the offline twin of RM length-hacking, and the same defenses apply.
Tooling
TRL's DPOTrainer implements equation (6.5.11) directly, and its in-family variants are one config flag away (loss_type="ipo" for IPO); the ones that change the data or drop the reference are separate trainers, KTOTrainer for KTO on unpaired good/bad labels and ORPOTrainer for ORPO. It expects a dataset with prompt, chosen, rejected fields, and it manages the reference model for you: with a LoRA policy, the reference is simply the base model with the adapter disabled, so you do not pay for a second full model in VRAM, a genuinely important trick on 16GB that Unsloth and PEFT make automatic. The trainer computes the four log-probabilities per pair, forms the margin, and applies the logistic loss. Evaluation is the same as any alignment run: score the DPO'd model on the frozen thesis suite and report the delta versus the SFT starting point through chapter 3.7's evalstats.bootstrap_paired_diff and evalstats.mcnemar, so "DPO helped" is an interval and a p-value.
Lab
The lab DPO-tunes the SFT model from chapter 6.2 on a preference set and, crucially, watches the implicit reward: it logs the chosen and rejected log-probabilities and the implicit-reward margin over training, so the derivation's abstractions (equations 6.5.9, 6.5.12) become curves you can see. The artifact is the DPO'd adapter plus a training-dynamics plot that exposes the "both logprobs fall" failure mode if it happens.
This is a uv project in the training environment. From the repo root:
uv init labs/dpo-align
cd labs/dpo-align
uv add "unsloth[cu124]" trl peft datasets matplotlib
uv add --editable ../../packages/evalstats
"""DPO-align the chapter-6.2 SFT model, logging the implicit reward margin
(equation 6.5.9) so the derivation becomes a curve. Writes the DPO adapter
and artifacts/dpo_dynamics.png.
"""
from pathlib import Path
import torch
from datasets import load_dataset
from trl import DPOConfig, DPOTrainer
from unsloth import FastLanguageModel
SFT_ADAPTER = "../sft-4b/artifacts/adapter" # cold start from chapter 6.2
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def main() -> None:
# Policy = base + the chapter-6.2 SFT adapter (the actual cold start).
# Loading the SAVED adapter continues training from the SFT weights; a
# fresh get_peft_model would zero-init a NEW adapter and DPO from base,
# discarding the cold start. Unsloth reads the base off the adapter config.
# DPOTrainer then uses this same model with the adapter disabled as the
# frozen reference, so no second full model sits in VRAM.
model, tok = FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained(
model_name=SFT_ADAPTER, max_seq_length=2048, load_in_4bit=True, dtype=None)
ds = load_dataset("trl-lib/ultrafeedback_binarized", split="train[:4000]")
cfg = DPOConfig(
output_dir=str(OUT / "run"),
beta=0.1, # the beta of equations (6.5.9)/(6.5.11)
loss_type="sigmoid", # DPO link; set "ipo" for IPO. KTO is a
# separate KTOTrainer on unpaired data.
per_device_train_batch_size=1,
gradient_accumulation_steps=16,
num_train_epochs=1, learning_rate=5e-6,
warmup_ratio=0.05, lr_scheduler_type="cosine",
bf16=True, max_length=1024, max_prompt_length=512,
logging_steps=10, report_to="none", seed=3407,
)
trainer = DPOTrainer(model=model, args=cfg, train_dataset=ds, processing_class=tok)
trainer.train()
model.save_pretrained(str(OUT / "dpo_adapter"))
# TRL logs rewards/chosen, rewards/rejected, rewards/margins per step.
hist = trainer.state.log_history
steps = [h["step"] for h in hist if "rewards/chosen" in h]
chosen = [h["rewards/chosen"] for h in hist if "rewards/chosen" in h]
rejected = [h["rewards/rejected"] for h in hist if "rewards/rejected" in h]
margin = [h["rewards/margins"] for h in hist if "rewards/margins" in h]
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
plt.figure(figsize=(7, 4))
plt.plot(steps, chosen, label="implicit reward: chosen")
plt.plot(steps, rejected, label="implicit reward: rejected")
plt.plot(steps, margin, label="margin (chosen - rejected)")
plt.axhline(0, color="grey", lw=0.8)
plt.xlabel("step"); plt.ylabel(r"$\beta \log \pi_\theta/\pi_{ref}$")
plt.title("DPO implicit-reward dynamics"); plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout(); plt.savefig(OUT / "dpo_dynamics.png", dpi=150)
print(f"Artifacts: {(OUT / 'dpo_adapter').resolve()}, "
f"{(OUT / 'dpo_dynamics.png').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python train_dpo.py
Watch the two implicit-reward curves, not just the margin. The margin (equation 6.5.10) will rise, that is all the loss optimizes, but a healthy DPO run keeps the chosen implicit reward roughly flat or rising while the rejected one falls. If both fall and the margin rises only because the rejected one falls faster, you are in the degenerate regime I warned about under equation (6.5.12): the model is getting the preference right by making good responses less likely too, which shows up as worse generations despite a "better" DPO loss. Fixes are a larger (stronger reference anchor), a lower learning rate, or switching to IPO (loss_type="ipo"), whose bounded target does not chase the margin to infinity. This plot is the whole reason the lab logs the raw rewards.
What you should see. Over one epoch the implicit-reward margin climbs steadily from around 0 into positive territory (the model learns to prefer the chosen responses), and in a healthy run the chosen curve stays near flat while the rejected curve drifts down, so the boxed loss of equation (6.5.11) is doing what the derivation promised. Because the reference is the adapter-disabled base, peak VRAM is close to the chapter 6.3 SFT budget, well inside 16 GiB, with the caveat that DPO forwards four sequences per pair (policy and reference on chosen and rejected) so the throughput is lower than SFT, plan for it to be a few times slower per example. Record wall-clock, tokens/sec, and peak VRAM (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver). The headline artifact is dpo_dynamics.png, which turns equations (6.5.9) and (6.5.12) from symbols into three curves you can point at, and the saved DPO adapter, which you can then score against the SFT baseline through evalstats to put a CI on "did direct alignment help."
Pair this with [RLHF] ch. 8, the direct-alignment chapter: it walks the same derivation from the KL-regularized objective (equation 6.5.1) through the closed-form optimum (equation 6.5.6) to the DPO loss (equation 6.5.11), and it surveys the IPO/KTO/ORPO variants with the tradeoffs I summarized. Read it alongside chapter 6.4 here, because the DPO loss is quite literally the reward-model loss of that chapter with the implicit reward of equation (6.5.9) substituted for the learned .
"The reward model was hiding inside the language model the whole time." A post that derives DPO the way it deserves: start from the RLHF objective everyone spends fortunes approximating with PPO, show it has an exact closed-form optimum (equation 6.5.6, the policy is just the reference reweighted by exponentiated reward), then invert it to read the reward off the policy (equation 6.5.9) and watch the intractable partition function cancel in the preference difference (equation 6.5.10). What is left is a supervised loss you can train on a laptop-class GPU. End on the honest catch: it is offline, so it cannot explore, which is exactly why verifiable-reward RL still earns its cost when you are chasing capability instead of style.
Reasoning models and inference-time scaling
Up to here every knob in this part changed the weights. This chapter is about the orthogonal axis: with the weights frozen, I can spend more compute per answer at inference time and get better accuracy, sometimes a lot better. Chain-of-thought lets the model think in tokens before answering; self-consistency samples many chains and votes; best-of-n samples many answers and lets a verifier pick; self-refinement lets the model critique and revise; budget forcing lets me dial the thinking length up or down directly. These are not tricks, they are a second scaling law, compute-per-answer instead of parameters, and the reason this chapter sits in the post-training part is that it interacts with everything else in a way that will wreck my evaluations if I am not careful. A trained model that "beats" a base model might just be spending more inference compute, and unless I hold the compute budget fixed the comparison is meaningless. So the theory here is the menu of inference-time methods and the compute-per-answer frontier they trace, and the lab is the matched-budget scaling curves on the thesis suite that keep every later claim in the book honest.
Theory
Chain-of-thought: computation as tokens
A transformer does a fixed amount of computation per token: one forward pass, constant depth. A hard problem may need more sequential computation than one forward pass provides. Chain-of-thought (CoT) is the observation that you can buy more computation by letting the model emit intermediate reasoning tokens before its final answer, because each generated token is another forward pass conditioned on all the previous ones, so a long reasoning trace is a variable-depth computation the model builds for itself. Formally, instead of modeling directly, CoT models
where is a reasoning trace (the "thinking"). The model samples a , then answers conditioned on it. The reason this helps is that for many problems is sharply peaked and easy once the right is written down (the arithmetic is mechanical once you have set up the steps), even though marginalized over all traces is diffuse and hard. Reasoning-trained models (via SFT on long traces, chapter 6.2, and RLVR, Part V) are models whose has been shaped to put mass on useful traces. CoT is the substrate; the training makes the traces good.
Self-consistency: sample many traces, vote
Equation (6.6.1) is a sum over traces, and a single sampled is a one-sample Monte Carlo estimate of it, high variance. Self-consistency reduces that variance the obvious way: sample independent traces , read off each one's answer, and take the majority vote (the mode of the answer marginal). This works because wrong traces tend to be wrong in different ways (they scatter across many wrong answers) while correct traces converge on the same right answer, so the correct answer accumulates votes faster than any single wrong one. It is a verifier-free method: no external checker, just agreement among samples. Its cost is exactly times a single CoT generation, and its accuracy-versus- curve is the canonical inference-time scaling curve, rising and then saturating as the vote stabilizes.
Best-of-n with a verifier
If I have a verifier (and for reasoning tasks I do, that is the thesis), I can do better than voting. Best-of-n (also called rejection sampling at inference) samples answers and keeps the one the verifier accepts, or, with a scoring verifier or reward model, the highest-scored one. The distinction from self-consistency is the selection rule: self-consistency picks the most popular answer, best-of-n picks the verified-correct (or highest-scored) one, which is strictly more informative when a real checker exists.
Suppose the model solves a task with per-sample success probability (it emits a correct, verifier-passing answer with probability on any single try). With a perfect verifier that always recognizes a correct answer, best-of-n succeeds if any of the samples is correct. The samples are independent, so the failure probability is and
This is the pass@ curve, and it explains the whole shape of inference-time scaling. For small , early samples buy a lot: going from to raises accuracy by , which is substantial. But the marginal gain of the -th sample is , which decays geometrically, so the curve saturates: once you are very likely to have already hit a correct sample, more samples are wasted. The half-way point (accuracy of the gap) arrives around for small , which says the compute you need scales like : a model that solves the task 10% of the time per sample needs roughly samples to get to about and tens of samples to approach its ceiling.
Two caveats make this the ceiling, not the reality. First, real verifiers are imperfect: a verifier with false-positive rate (accepts a wrong answer) caps the achievable accuracy below 1, because as grows you eventually sample a wrong-but-accepted answer. Second, equation (6.6.2) assumes the samples are independent and identically distributed, which temperature-based sampling only approximates. Both push the real curve below equation (6.6.2), but the shape, fast early gains, geometric saturation, is exactly what you see.
Equation (6.6.2) is also the bridge back to training. RLVR raises , the per-sample success probability, by training the policy to put more mass on correct traces. Inference-time scaling spends samples to convert a given into higher accuracy. They are complementary: a better from training shifts the entire pass@ curve up and left (you reach any target accuracy with fewer samples), which is the cleanest way to see why a good cold-start and RLVR make inference-time scaling cheaper, not redundant.
Self-refinement and budget forcing
Two more methods round out the menu. Self-refinement is sequential rather than parallel: the model generates an answer, then is prompted to critique and revise it, possibly for several rounds. It can help when the model can recognize its own errors better than it can avoid them on the first pass, but it has a well-known failure mode where the model "corrects" a right answer into a wrong one, so it is not a free lunch and needs a verifier or a stopping rule to be safe. Budget forcing is the most direct knob of all: it controls the length of the reasoning trace at decode time, either forcing the model to keep thinking (suppress the end-of-thinking token and inject "Wait, let me reconsider") to spend more compute, or truncating the trace and forcing an answer to spend less. It turns the implicit compute of equation (6.6.1) into an explicit dial, and it is how recent reasoning models expose a "thinking effort" setting. All of these are points on one frontier.
Verifier types: outcome, process, and generative
Best-of-n and rejection sampling are only as good as the verifier that selects, so it is worth distinguishing the three kinds I might reach for, because they sit at very different points on the trust-versus-availability curve. An outcome verifier checks only the final answer against ground truth (does the boxed number equal the gold number, does the code pass the unit tests); it is the gold standard for reasoning tasks because it has essentially no exploitable slack, but it needs a known answer, which you have at training and eval time but not at deployment. A process reward model (PRM) scores the intermediate steps of a trace, trained on step-level correctness labels; it can catch a trace that stumbles into the right answer by luck and can guide search step by step, but it is a learned reward and therefore hackable in exactly the sense of chapter 6.4, so its verdicts are softer. A generative verifier is an LLM-as-judge (Part III) prompted to check the reasoning; it is the most available (no labels, no training) and the least trustworthy, with all the judge-bias failure modes the causal-inference part warns about. For the thesis I lean on outcome verifiers wherever a ground-truth answer exists, precisely because they are the same clean, low-slack signal that makes RLVR stable, and I treat PRM and generative verifiers as research extensions rather than load-bearing. The best-of-n curve in the lab uses an outcome verifier, which is why it represents a near-ceiling on what selection can buy.
The compute-per-answer frontier and matched-budget evals
Every method above trades inference compute for accuracy, and the honest way to describe a model is not a single accuracy number but a curve: accuracy as a function of compute-per-answer. Compute-per-answer is best measured in generated tokens (or FLOPs, or wall-clock, but tokens are the portable currency), summed over all the samples and refinement rounds a method uses to produce one final answer. Self-consistency at costs about the tokens of a single CoT; best-of- costs about ; budget forcing to a 4000-token trace costs whatever that trace costs. Plotting accuracy against this token budget puts every method on the same axis, and the upper envelope of those curves is the model's compute-per-answer frontier.
This is the single most important methodological point in the part, and it is where most public model comparisons quietly cheat. If model A is evaluated with self-consistency at and model B with a single greedy sample, A's higher accuracy tells you nothing about which model is better, because A spent the inference compute. Any claim that "training improved the model" must hold the inference budget fixed: same method, same , same token budget, before and after. A trained model that only wins at a larger budget has not necessarily improved, it may just have been handed more compute. Every reasoning-delta measurement in this book (Part VII especially) is a matched-budget comparison for exactly this reason, and the curves this chapter's lab produces are what let me pick the matched budget honestly, at the point where both models' curves have roughly saturated, so neither is starved.
Parallel versus sequential compute, and diminishing returns
The methods above split into two ways of spending compute, and they do not scale the same. Self-consistency and best-of-n are parallel: they draw independent samples that share nothing but the prompt, so they parallelize perfectly on the GPU (one batched vLLM call) and their accuracy follows the saturating pass@ shape of equation (6.6.2). Self-refinement and budget forcing are sequential: each step conditions on the previous one, so they cannot be batched the same way and they add latency linearly, but they can in principle reach solutions parallel sampling never would, because a refinement can build on a specific earlier attempt rather than starting fresh. In practice, for verifiable tasks, parallel best-of-n with an outcome verifier is the workhorse because it is cheap to batch and its ceiling is high, while sequential methods earn their latency only when the model genuinely self-corrects. The unifying caveat is diminishing returns: every one of these curves flattens, and past the flattening point I am burning tokens for nothing. The compute-per-answer frontier is therefore not just a description, it is a budgeting tool, it tells me the smallest budget that reaches a target accuracy, which is the number I actually want when I am deciding how much inference to spend serving or evaluating a model.
Tooling
The inference-time methods live in the inference/eval environment (vLLM plus Inspect), kept separate from the training environment per the two-environment doctrine. vLLM does the heavy lifting: its n sampling parameter draws multiple completions per prompt in one batched call (efficient because they share the prefill and the paged KV cache from Part II), which is exactly what self-consistency and best-of-n need. Inspect (Part III) supplies the task suite, the solvers, and the scorers, and its scorer is the verifier for best-of-n, the same object that will be the reward in the training loop, which is the "evals as rewards" identity showing up again. Budget forcing is implemented at the sampling layer by manipulating stop tokens and max_tokens and, for the "keep thinking" variant, by suppressing the end-of-thinking token and re-prompting. The measurement glue is chapter 3.7's evalstats: accuracy at each budget comes back as a bootstrap_mean with a CI, and before/after-training comparisons at a fixed budget go through bootstrap_paired_diff and mcnemar, so the scaling curves carry error bars and the matched-budget deltas carry p-values.
Lab
The lab produces the central figure of the whole methodology: inference-time scaling curves on the frozen thesis suite. For a fixed model, it sweeps the number of samples and plots two curves against token budget, self-consistency (majority vote) and best-of-n (verifier-selected), each with bootstrap CIs. This shows the pass@-shaped saturation of equation (6.6.2) directly, quantifies how much a verifier beats voting, and marks the matched budget I will use for every training comparison.
This is a uv project in the inference/eval environment. From the repo root:
uv init labs/its-scaling
cd labs/its-scaling
uv add vllm datasets numpy matplotlib
uv add --editable ../../packages/evalstats
"""Inference-time scaling curves on the frozen thesis suite: self-consistency
(vote) vs best-of-n (verifier), accuracy vs token budget, with bootstrap CIs.
Writes artifacts/its_scaling.csv and artifacts/its_scaling.png.
"""
from collections import Counter
from pathlib import Path
import csv
import re
import numpy as np
from vllm import LLM, SamplingParams
import evalstats as es
# chapter-3.9 frozen suite: load_suite() -> Suite with .items (each Item has
# .prompt, .answer, .verifier) and verify(item, response) -> bool.
from thesis_suite import load_suite, verify
MODEL = "Qwen/Qwen3-4B"
KS = [1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32]
MAX_K = max(KS)
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def extract_answer(text: str) -> str | None:
"""Canonical final answer for the majority vote. thesis_suite exposes a
verifier (used below for correctness) but not an extractor, so pull the
last boxed span or trailing number here to tally self-consistency votes."""
boxed = re.findall(r"\\boxed\{([^}]*)\}", text)
if boxed:
return boxed[-1].strip()
nums = re.findall(r"-?\d[\d,]*\.?\d*", text)
return nums[-1].replace(",", "") if nums else None
def main() -> None:
items = load_suite("v1.0").items
llm = LLM(model=MODEL, dtype="bfloat16", gpu_memory_utilization=0.85,
max_model_len=4096)
sp = SamplingParams(n=MAX_K, temperature=0.8, top_p=0.95, max_tokens=2048)
# One batched generation of MAX_K samples per item; sub-sample for small k.
prompts = [it.prompt for it in items]
outs = llm.generate(prompts, sp)
# Per item, cache each sample's extracted answer, verifier verdict, tokens.
per_item = []
for it, out in zip(items, outs):
rec = []
for comp in out.outputs:
ans = extract_answer(comp.text)
rec.append((ans, verify(it, comp.text), len(comp.token_ids)))
per_item.append(rec)
rows = []
for k in KS:
sc_correct, bo_correct, tokens = [], [], []
for rec in per_item:
sub = rec[:k] # first k samples
toks = sum(t for _, _, t in sub)
tokens.append(toks)
# self-consistency: majority vote over extracted answers
votes = Counter(a for a, _, _ in sub if a is not None)
top = votes.most_common(1)[0][0] if votes else None
# correct if the voted answer matches (re-verify the voted answer)
sc_correct.append(1 if top is not None and
any(ok for a, ok, _ in sub if a == top and ok) else 0)
# best-of-n: correct if ANY sample passes the verifier
bo_correct.append(1 if any(ok for _, ok, _ in sub) else 0)
sc = es.bootstrap_mean(sc_correct, level=0.95)
bo = es.bootstrap_mean(bo_correct, level=0.95)
mean_tokens = float(np.mean(tokens))
rows.append({"k": k, "mean_tokens": mean_tokens,
"sc_acc": sc.point, "sc_lo": sc.ci_low, "sc_hi": sc.ci_high,
"bo_acc": bo.point, "bo_lo": bo.ci_low, "bo_hi": bo.ci_high})
print(f"k={k:2d} tok/ans={mean_tokens:7.0f} "
f"vote={sc.point:.3f} best-of-n={bo.point:.3f}")
with (OUT / "its_scaling.csv").open("w", newline="") as f:
w = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=list(rows[0].keys()))
w.writeheader(); w.writerows(rows)
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
x = [r["mean_tokens"] for r in rows]
for key, lo, hi, label in [("sc_acc", "sc_lo", "sc_hi", "self-consistency (vote)"),
("bo_acc", "bo_lo", "bo_hi", "best-of-n (verifier)")]:
y = [r[key] for r in rows]
yl = [r[key] - r[lo] for r in rows]
yh = [r[hi] - r[key] for r in rows]
plt.errorbar(x, y, yerr=[yl, yh], marker="o", capsize=4, label=label)
plt.xscale("log")
plt.xlabel("compute per answer (mean generated tokens)")
plt.ylabel("accuracy on thesis suite v1.0")
plt.title("Inference-time scaling under matched budget")
plt.legend(); plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig(OUT / "its_scaling.png", dpi=150)
print(f"Artifacts: {(OUT / 'its_scaling.csv').resolve()}, "
f"{(OUT / 'its_scaling.png').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python scaling_curves.py
Generating n=32 samples per prompt in vLLM is far cheaper than 32 separate requests, because vLLM shares the prompt's prefill computation across all 32 continuations and packs their KV caches into the paged allocator from Part II. On the 16GB card the constraint is KV-cache memory, not compute: 32 concurrent 2048-token continuations of a 4B model is a real KV footprint, so gpu_memory_utilization and max_model_len are the knobs that keep it from OOM-ing. If you hit an out-of-memory during generation, lower max_tokens or generate the largest in sub-batches; the science is unchanged, only the batching.
What you should see. Both curves rise with token budget and then flatten, the pass@ saturation of equation (6.6.2) made visible, and the best-of-n curve sits above the self-consistency curve at every budget because a verifier that recognizes correctness beats a popularity vote (voting cannot pick a correct answer that only one sample found, best-of-n can). The gap between the two curves is a direct measure of how much your verifier is worth. Both saturate by in the low tens, and the token budget where they flatten is the matched budget you will freeze for every training comparison in Part VII, chosen where both curves have plateaued so no model is starved. Record throughput (tokens/sec), peak VRAM, and wall-clock for the full sweep (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver); the generation dominates the runtime and the KV cache dominates the memory. The artifact its_scaling.png is the figure that lets me say, for the rest of the book, "compared at a fixed budget of tokens per answer," and mean it.
Pair this with [BRM] ch. 4–5 for the reasoning-model methods themselves (chain-of-thought, self-consistency, verification, refinement, and the training that shapes good traces) and [RLHF] ch. 7 for how inference-time verification connects back to the reward and the RLVR objective. Read equation (6.6.2) here alongside their pass@ discussion; it is the same curve, and it is the quantitative bridge between "train to raise " and "sample to spend ."
"There are two ways to make a model smarter: change its weights, or let it think longer. Most benchmark fights are secretly about the second one." A post built on equation (6.6.2), the pass@ curve, showing that a model with a 10-percent per-try success rate can be pushed near its ceiling with a few dozen samples and a verifier, and that this is a second scaling law running orthogonal to parameters. Then the methodological gut-punch: almost every "our model beats theirs" claim you have seen compares models at different compute-per-answer budgets, which makes the comparison meaningless, and the fix is a single discipline, matched-budget evaluation, that the scaling-curve figure makes easy.
Distillation
There is a slightly deflating result at the heart of small-scale reasoning work, and it is worth stating plainly at the top: for a 4B model on a 16GB card, the fastest way to a good reasoning model is often not to run reinforcement learning at all, but to copy a bigger model's homework. Distillation, in the form this chapter cares about, means taking reasoning traces from a strong teacher model and using them as SFT data for a weaker student. It is not the classic logit-matching distillation of small-image-classifier fame (though I will connect the two); it is trace distillation, and when the traces are good it routinely beats from-scratch RL at this scale, for a reason the theory below makes precise. This chapter derives why, connects rejection sampling as the quality filter that makes distillation work, and places distillation where it belongs in the thesis: the post-contract extension, the thing I do once the core serve-evaluate-score-train loop is proven, to squeeze out more capability than my own RLVR run can find on its own.
Theory
Two kinds of distillation
Classical knowledge distillation trains a student to match a teacher's full output distribution: for each input, minimize the KL from the teacher's softmax (softened by a temperature) to the student's, so the student learns not just the teacher's top answer but its whole spread of probabilities, the "dark knowledge" in the runner-up logits. The loss is
where is the temperature- softened distribution. This is beautiful and it needs the teacher's logits, which for a closed API teacher you do not have and for an open teacher costs you a synchronized forward pass. For LLM reasoning at small scale the dominant, practical variant is coarser and cheaper: sequence-level distillation, where the teacher just generates full reasoning traces and the student does ordinary SFT (chapter 6.2, masked cross-entropy) on them. You throw away the soft distribution and keep only the sampled sequence, which is a lossy approximation of equation (6.7.1) but requires nothing but the teacher's text output. Every "distilled" open reasoning model you have seen is this: a strong model generated chains of thought, and a smaller model was fine-tuned to imitate them.
Sequence-level distillation is exactly the SFT objective of equation (6.2.3), with one change: the demonstrations come from the teacher policy instead of from humans. The student minimizes
where is a teacher-generated trace-plus-answer and the loss is masked to the completion as always. This is maximum likelihood, so its fixed point is the student policy closest (in forward KL) to the teacher's trace distribution that the student's capacity can represent. Compare that to the human-demonstration SFT of chapter 6.2, which targets the human trace distribution. The distillation win is entirely about which distribution you are imitating: a strong reasoning teacher produces traces that are correct more often, structured more consistently, and formatted the way a verifier wants, so imitating moves the student toward a better demonstrator than a pile of human-written or scraped traces would.
Now the comparison to RL, which is the point of the chapter. RLVR (Part V) optimizes the student's own samples against a verifier: it needs the student to already produce correct traces with nonzero probability so the reward signal is informative (the cold-start argument of chapter 6.2), and it explores from there. Its per-example signal is one scalar (correct/incorrect), sparse. Distillation's per-example signal is a full correct trace, dense: every token of a good teacher trace is a gradient toward the right procedure, equation (6.7.2) versus the one-bit reward of RL. So at small scale, where the student's own solve rate is low and RL's exploration is slow and noisy, distillation's dense supervision from a teacher that has already solved the problem is simply more sample-efficient. RL earns its cost when there is no teacher better than you, or when you want to push past the teacher; distillation earns its cost when a better teacher exists and you just want its capability cheaply. At 4B on 16GB, a better teacher almost always exists.
Rejection sampling: the quality filter
Teacher traces are not uniformly good. A strong teacher still gets some problems wrong, and imitating a wrong trace teaches a wrong procedure, which is worse than teaching a wrong fact because the student generalizes the bad reasoning. The fix, and the thing that makes distillation actually work, is rejection sampling: generate teacher traces only for problems with known answers, verify each trace with the same checker my evals use, and keep only the traces that reach the correct answer. This is where the "evals as rewards" identity pays off yet again, the verifier that scores my benchmark is the filter that curates my distillation set. Formally, I am sampling from the teacher conditioned on correctness,
where is the ground-truth answer and is the verifier. Distilling on instead of raw removes the wrong-procedure traces entirely, and it is strictly better data for the same reason chapter 6.2 preached quality over quantity. Note that this is exactly rejection-sampling fine-tuning (the "RFT" / "STaR"-style loop) when the teacher is a stronger checkpoint of the student itself: sample, keep the correct ones, SFT on them, repeat. Self-distillation via rejection sampling is a real and cheap capability lever, and it needs no reward model and no RL machinery, just a verifier and a sampling budget.
Forward KL, off-policy data, and the exposure-bias caveat
There is a subtlety in equation (6.7.2) worth surfacing, because it explains both why distillation works and where it frays. Maximum-likelihood imitation minimizes the forward KL, , which is mode-covering: the student is penalized for putting low probability anywhere the teacher puts high probability, so it tries to cover all of the teacher's behavior, including modes it cannot represent well at 4B. That is usually benign for reasoning traces (the teacher's mass is concentrated on good traces after rejection sampling) but it is why a heavily distilled small model can feel like it is imitating a register it does not fully command. The deeper issue is exposure bias, the same one that afflicts all SFT: the student is trained on the teacher's trajectories but at inference it conditions on its own prefix, and once it makes a token the teacher never would, it is off the training distribution with no supervision for how to recover. On-policy distillation variants address this by having the teacher score or correct the student's own rollouts rather than only its own, which reintroduces some of RL's on-policy benefit at more cost. For the thesis scale I stick with off-policy trace distillation plus rejection sampling and accept the exposure-bias caveat, because the alternative pulls me back toward the RL machinery distillation was supposed to avoid. Naming the caveat is what keeps the "distillation beats RL here" claim honest: it beats RL on sample-efficiency at low solve rates, not on robustness at the margins.
The subtle costs
Distillation is not free of failure modes, and honesty requires naming them. First, the student cannot exceed the teacher's reachable capability by imitation alone; equation (6.7.2)'s fixed point is bounded by the teacher's trace distribution, so pure distillation asymptotes at "a smaller, faster version of the teacher on this task," not beyond it. Second, distilled traces can induce style over substance: the student learns to produce teacher-shaped reasoning that looks right, including on problems where it does not actually follow the logic, which is a form of the same proxy-gaming risk from chapter 6.4 wearing a different hat. Third, there are real licensing and terms-of-service constraints on distilling from closed models that a thesis has to respect. The mitigations are rejection sampling (equation 6.7.3, keep only verified-correct traces), mixing distilled data with your own RLVR-discovered traces so the student is not purely imitative, and evaluating on held-out problems the teacher never saw so you measure generalization, not memorized teacher tics.
Where distillation sits in the thesis
The thesis's core deliverable is the closed loop: serve a model, evaluate it, use the scorer as a reward, train with RLVR on 16GB, re-evaluate, measure the reasoning delta with the chapter 3.7 statistics. Distillation is deliberately outside that contract, and it is the natural extension once the contract is met, for two reasons. First, it is the strongest baseline the RLVR result must be compared against: if a simple rejection-sampling distillation from a good teacher matches or beats my RLVR run at matched inference budget (chapter 6.6), then my RL contribution is honest work only if I report that. Second, it composes: the best small reasoning models are distillation then RLVR, cold-start the student on verified teacher traces to lift its solve rate, then run RLVR to push past the teacher on the tasks where the student's exploration finds something new. So distillation is both the baseline I must beat and the on-ramp that makes my RL cheaper, which is exactly why it closes this part rather than opening it.
Sampling temperature and the diversity of the distillation set
One knob quietly decides how much a distillation run is worth: the teacher's sampling temperature during trace generation. At temperature zero the teacher emits its single most-likely trace per problem, which is high-quality but low-diversity, so the student sees essentially one way to solve each problem and learns a narrow procedure. At a higher temperature (0.7 to 1.0) the teacher produces varied traces, different solution paths, different phrasings, which teaches the student a distribution over ways to reason rather than one canonical path, and that diversity is what makes the distilled student robust to problems that need a slightly different approach. Rejection sampling (equation 6.7.3) makes higher temperature safe, because the wrong traces that temperature also produces get filtered out, leaving a diverse-but-correct set. So the recipe is: sample warm for diversity, verify hard for correctness, and keep multiple correct traces per problem when they take genuinely different paths. This is the distillation-set analogue of the quality-and-coverage argument that ran through the SFT and reward-model chapters, and it is why the lab samples at temperature 0.8 with rather than greedily.
Tooling
Distillation reuses the entire stack already built, which is the point. Generation of teacher traces is a vLLM job in the inference environment: batched sampling of traces per problem, the same machinery as chapter 6.6's best-of-n. Verification and filtering (equation 6.7.3) is the Inspect scorer from Part III, the same verifier that is the eval and the reward. Training on the filtered traces is TRL's SFTTrainer with a LoRA adapter in the training environment, byte-for-byte the chapter 6.2 lab with a different dataset. Evaluation of the distilled student against the RLVR student and the SFT baseline is chapter 3.7's evalstats.bootstrap_paired_diff and evalstats.mcnemar at a matched budget. There is no new library here, distillation is a composition of the tools, which is itself the lesson: once the loop's components exist, distillation is a data-curation pattern over them, not a new system.
Lab
The lab builds a rejection-sampled distillation set from a teacher, SFT-distills the 4B student on it, and compares the distilled student against the plain SFT cold-start on the frozen thesis suite, so the "distillation beats vanilla SFT (and is a real baseline for RL)" claim is measured with a CI. The artifacts are the filtered trace dataset and the eval delta.
This spans both environments. First, generate and filter teacher traces (inference environment):
uv init labs/distill
cd labs/distill
uv add vllm datasets
uv add --editable ../../packages/evalstats
"""Generate teacher reasoning traces and reject the wrong ones (equation 6.7.3).
Writes artifacts/distill_set.jsonl of verified-correct traces.
"""
import json
from pathlib import Path
from vllm import LLM, SamplingParams
from datasets import load_dataset
# Teacher: a stronger open reasoning model the license permits distilling from.
TEACHER = "Qwen/Qwen3-14B"
K = 4 # traces per problem; keep the correct ones
OUT = Path("artifacts"); OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
from thesis_suite import verify_sda_answer # chapter-3.9 verifier
def main() -> None:
# Problems WITH known answers (rejection sampling needs a^*(x)).
problems = load_dataset("openai/gsm8k", "main", split="train[:2000]")
llm = LLM(model=TEACHER, dtype="bfloat16", gpu_memory_utilization=0.9,
max_model_len=4096)
sp = SamplingParams(n=K, temperature=0.8, top_p=0.95, max_tokens=1024)
prompts = [p["question"] for p in problems]
outs = llm.generate(prompts, sp)
kept = 0
with (OUT / "distill_set.jsonl").open("w") as f:
for prob, out in zip(problems, outs):
gold = prob["answer"].split("####")[-1].strip()
for comp in out.outputs:
if verify_sda_answer(comp.text, gold): # keep correct only
f.write(json.dumps({
"instruction": prob["question"],
"output": comp.text,
}) + "\n")
kept += 1
break # one verified trace per problem is enough
total = len(problems)
print(f"kept {kept}/{total} verified traces "
f"({100*kept/total:.1f}% solve rate on the teacher)")
print(f"Artifact: {(OUT / 'distill_set.jsonl').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python gen_traces.py
Then distill and compare (training environment; the distill_set.jsonl carries over):
"""SFT-distill the 4B student on verified teacher traces, then compare against
the plain cold-start SFT on the frozen suite. Writes artifacts/distill_delta.txt.
"""
from pathlib import Path
import torch
from datasets import load_dataset
from trl import SFTConfig, SFTTrainer
from unsloth import FastLanguageModel
import evalstats as es
from thesis_suite import score_model
BASE = "unsloth/Qwen3-4B-Base"
OUT = Path("artifacts"); OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def student():
model, tok = FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained(
model_name=BASE, max_seq_length=2048, load_in_4bit=True, dtype=None)
model = FastLanguageModel.get_peft_model(
model, r=16, lora_alpha=32, lora_dropout=0.0,
target_modules=["q_proj", "k_proj", "v_proj", "o_proj",
"gate_proj", "up_proj", "down_proj"],
use_gradient_checkpointing="unsloth", random_state=3407)
return model, tok
def train_on(ds, tag):
model, tok = student()
# Prompt/completion message lists: SFTTrainer renders + masks the prompt
# (no packing over a pre-rendered `text`, which would score the whole seq).
ds = ds.map(lambda ex: {
"prompt": [{"role": "user", "content": ex["instruction"]}],
"completion": [{"role": "assistant", "content": ex["output"]}]},
remove_columns=ds.column_names)
cfg = SFTConfig(output_dir=str(OUT / f"run_{tag}"), max_seq_length=2048,
completion_only_loss=True,
per_device_train_batch_size=2, gradient_accumulation_steps=8,
num_train_epochs=1, learning_rate=2e-4, warmup_ratio=0.03,
lr_scheduler_type="cosine", bf16=True, logging_steps=25,
report_to="none", seed=3407)
SFTTrainer(model=model, args=cfg, train_dataset=ds).train()
FastLanguageModel.for_inference(model)
return model, tok
def main() -> None:
# Distilled student: trained on verified teacher traces.
distill_ds = load_dataset(
"json", data_files=str(OUT / "distill_set.jsonl"), split="train")
dm, dtok = train_on(distill_ds, "distill")
distill_scores = score_model(dm, dtok)
del dm; torch.cuda.empty_cache()
# Baseline student: plain human-demo SFT on the same Alpaca slice as
# chapter 6.2, loaded straight from HF (6.2 trains on this slice but does
# not dump a jsonl, so read it here rather than from a nonexistent file).
base_ds = load_dataset("yahma/alpaca-cleaned", split="train[:3000]")
bm, btok = train_on(base_ds, "baseline")
base_scores = score_model(bm, btok)
del bm; torch.cuda.empty_cache()
est = es.bootstrap_paired_diff(distill_scores, base_scores, level=0.95)
mc = es.mcnemar(distill_scores, base_scores, exact=True)
report = (f"distill_acc {sum(distill_scores)/len(distill_scores):.4f}\n"
f"baseline_acc {sum(base_scores)/len(base_scores):.4f}\n"
f"delta {est.point:+.4f} 95% CI [{est.ci_low:+.4f}, {est.ci_high:+.4f}]\n"
f"mcnemar p {mc.pvalue:.4f}\n")
(OUT / "distill_delta.txt").write_text(report)
print(report)
print(f"Artifact: {(OUT / 'distill_delta.txt').resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python distill_sft.py
The distillation comparison is only honest if the distilled student and the baseline student are evaluated on problems the teacher never generated traces for. If your thesis-suite items overlap with the GSM8K training problems you distilled on, you are measuring memorization, not reasoning transfer, which is the contamination failure mode from Part III wearing a distillation costume. Keep the distillation source problems and the eval suite strictly disjoint, and prefer an eval suite drawn from a different distribution than the distillation set so a real generalization delta is what you measure. This is the single most common way a distillation result is accidentally inflated.
What you should see. The teacher's solve rate on the source problems (printed by gen_traces.py) tells you your yield: a 14B teacher on GSM8K-style problems should verify-correct on the large majority of items, so you keep on the order of 1500 to 1800 traces from 2000 problems. The distilled student, trained on those verified traces, should beat the plain-SFT baseline on the frozen suite by a delta whose bootstrap CI excludes zero and whose McNemar p-value is small, the measured statement that dense correct traces beat generic instruction data for reasoning. Both training runs fit the chapter 6.3 QLoRA budget; the teacher generation is the memory-heavy step and runs in the inference environment where the 14B model in BF16 (about 28 GiB) exceeds 16 GiB, so on the baseline machine you either quantize the teacher to 4-bit to fit or generate the traces during a Lambda burst (Part VIII) and bring the distill_set.jsonl home. Record teacher solve rate, kept-trace count, both training wall-clocks, and the eval delta with its CI (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver). The distill_delta.txt artifact is the baseline number every RLVR result in Part VII must be reported against.
Pair this with [BRM] ch. 8, the distillation chapter, which develops trace distillation and rejection-sampling fine-tuning for reasoning models in depth and situates them against RL, exactly the "when does distillation beat RL at small scale" question equation (6.7.2)'s derivation answers here. Read it as the capstone of the reasoning-methods arc that ran through [BRM] ch. 4–7, and as the direct setup for this book's Part VII, where distillation is the baseline the RLVR loop is measured against.
"At small scale, the fastest path to a good reasoning model is to copy a better model's homework, and check the answers before you copy." A post on why sequence-level distillation (equation 6.7.2, SFT on a teacher's traces) beats from-scratch RL for a 4B model: RL gives you one bit of signal per attempt and needs you to already be able to solve the problem, while a good teacher hands you a full correct chain of thought, dense supervision toward the right procedure. The catch and the fix in one move: teachers are sometimes wrong, so rejection-sample with a verifier (equation 6.7.3) and keep only the traces that reach the right answer, which is the same verifier that scores your evals and rewards your RL. Distillation, evaluation, and reward turn out to be the same object again.
Unsloth internals
The loop this whole book has been circling finally closes in Part VII, and it closes on top of one library. Unsloth is the thing that makes GRPO training of a reasoning model fit on the 16GB card at all, and it does that by being far more invasive than a normal dependency. Most libraries you import sit politely in their own namespace and wait to be called. Unsloth reaches into TRL, transformers, and PEFT at import time and rewrites their hot paths out from under them. That is a wonderful trick when it works and a baffling one when it breaks, so before I run a single training step I want the hood open: what exactly gets patched, why the patched version is smaller and faster, how the in-process vLLM engine shares weights with the trainer instead of duplicating them, and what happens when I fight the versions Unsloth has pinned. This chapter is deliberately heavy on the under-the-hood boxes, because the whole rest of Part VII is spent standing on machinery I want to have already looked inside.
Theory
What "patching" actually means here
Unsloth is not a training framework in the way TRL is. TRL owns the training loop: it has a GRPOTrainer with a train() method, a config object, a data collator, the optimizer step. Unsloth owns almost none of that. What Unsloth owns is a set of replacements for the most expensive functions inside the stack TRL sits on, and a loader (FastLanguageModel) that installs those replacements before the model is built. When you write from unsloth import FastLanguageModel at the very top of your script, the import has side effects: it monkey-patches functions in transformers (the attention forward, the RMSNorm, the cross-entropy, the rotary embedding), it patches PEFT's LoRA layers to use fused kernels, and it patches TRL's trainers so that generation during GRPO routes through an in-process vLLM engine instead of model.generate. None of this changes the API you call. You still call GRPOTrainer. You are just calling a GRPOTrainer whose insides have been swapped for faster, leaner versions.
That is why the import-order rule exists and is not superstition. import unsloth (or from unsloth import ...) has to run before transformers, trl, and peft are meaningfully used, because the patches are applied at Unsloth import time and they wrap the target functions as they exist then. If you import and instantiate a transformers model first and Unsloth second, some of the objects you already built are holding references to the unpatched functions, and you get the slow, fat path for those while the patched path applies only to things built later. The failure is silent: nothing errors, your run is just mysteriously using more memory and running slower than the tutorials promised.
Concretely, Unsloth does the equivalent of reaching into a module and reassigning attributes:
# Illustrative, not the real source: the shape of what happens at import.
import transformers.models.qwen3.modeling_qwen3 as qwen3
qwen3.Qwen3Attention.forward = _unsloth_fast_attention_forward
qwen3.Qwen3RMSNorm.forward = _unsloth_fast_rmsnorm_forward
# ... and cross-entropy, rotary, MLP, plus PEFT LoRA linear layers.
Because Python looks methods up by name on the class at call time, replacing Qwen3Attention.forward means every attention module of that class, including ones already constructed, now dispatches to Unsloth's kernel. That is the leverage: a handful of attribute assignments re-routes the entire forward and backward pass of an architecture. It is also the fragility. The patch targets transformers.models.qwen3.modeling_qwen3 by its exact internal structure. When a transformers release renames that module, changes the attention signature, or splits the RMSNorm out, the assignment either fails loudly (AttributeError) or, worse, silently stops matching and you fall back to the slow path. This is the mechanism behind every "works on transformers 4.x.y, breaks on 4.x.z" report, and it is why Unsloth pins the versions it patches against.
The kernels: where the speed and the memory savings come from
The patched functions are almost all Triton kernels, and they win in two distinct ways that are worth separating because they trade against different resources. The first win is fusion: doing several elementwise or reduction operations in a single kernel launch so intermediate results never get written to and re-read from GPU memory. The second win is not materializing activations: computing a quantity, and its gradient, without ever storing the large intermediate tensor that a naive autograd graph would keep alive for the backward pass. On a 16GB card the second win is the one that decides whether a run fits.
Take the four kernels that matter most for a reasoning-model training step.
Fused RMSNorm. RMSNorm computes for a gain vector . The naive version is several PyTorch ops (square, mean, rsqrt, multiply, scale), each a separate kernel launch reading and writing the full activation tensor. Unsloth's Triton kernel does the whole thing in one pass over the data, and its custom backward recomputes what it needs rather than storing every intermediate. Fewer launches, less memory traffic, and, critically, fewer saved tensors on the autograd tape.
Fused rotary embeddings (RoPE). Applying rotary position encoding to Q and K is a structured multiply-add that the naive path expresses as a pile of slices, concatenations, and elementwise multiplies, each allocating. The fused kernel applies the rotation in place with no intermediate allocations and a matching analytic backward.
Fused SwiGLU MLP. The gated MLP computes . Naively that is two projections, a SiLU, an elementwise product, and a projection, with the two large hidden-width intermediates (gate(x) and up(x), each of size batch by sequence by intermediate-dim) both kept alive for backward. Unsloth fuses the activation and gating and arranges the backward to recompute the SiLU rather than store it, which removes one of the fattest activation tensors in the whole block.
Fused, chunked cross-entropy. This is the single most important memory trick and it deserves its own box, below. The short version: computing the loss over a vocabulary of 150,000-plus tokens naively materializes a logits tensor of shape (batch sequence vocab) in fp32, which for a reasoning trace is enormous, and then a second same-shape tensor for its gradient. Unsloth never lets that full tensor exist.
Consider a single sequence of tokens (a modest reasoning trace) with a vocabulary of (Qwen3). The output logits are a tensor. In fp32 that is
for one sequence, and the naive cross-entropy backward wants a gradient tensor of the same shape, so roughly 4.6 GiB of transient memory for the loss of a single sequence. On a 16GB card, with a group of 8 generations, that alone would blow the budget before any weights or KV cache are counted.
The chunked kernel refuses to materialize . It walks the sequence in blocks, computing the softmax-cross-entropy and its gradient with respect to the hidden states one block at a time, accumulating the scalar loss and writing the gradient straight back into the (small) hidden-state gradient rather than through a full logits gradient. Peak transient memory drops from "the whole tensor" to "one block's worth", turning a multi-GiB spike into a few hundred MiB. This is the arithmetic reason Unsloth can train long-context reasoning traces where vanilla TRL OOMs, and it is entirely a memory win rather than a speed win: you are not doing less math, you are refusing to store the math's fattest intermediate.
The through-line across all four kernels is the same idea from the autograd chapter in Part I: reverse-mode differentiation is cheap in compute but expensive in memory because it must keep forward activations alive for the backward pass. Every Unsloth kernel is a deal to not keep a specific activation, recomputing it in the backward instead. That is the same trade as gradient checkpointing, pushed down to the kernel level and hand-tuned per operation.
The relationship to TRL
It helps to be precise about the division of labor, because "Unsloth trains the model" is wrong in a way that will confuse you when something breaks. TRL provides the algorithm. GRPOTrainer implements group-relative policy optimization: it samples a group of completions per prompt, calls your reward functions, computes the group-relative advantages, forms the clipped surrogate objective with the KL-to-reference term, and steps the optimizer. That logic is TRL's, derived in the GRPO chapter of Part V, and Unsloth does not reimplement it.
What Unsloth does is make each of the expensive pieces inside that loop cheaper. The forward and backward passes TRL triggers run through Unsloth's fused kernels. The generation step TRL would normally do with model.generate is redirected to an in-process vLLM engine (the next section). The model TRL optimizes is a 4-bit base with LoRA adapters, loaded by FastLanguageModel rather than AutoModelForCausalLM. So the mental model is: TRL is the choreographer, Unsloth is the stunt double it does not know it hired. When TRL calls what it thinks is a normal PyTorch forward, a Triton kernel answers.
GRPO's objective includes a KL penalty against a frozen reference policy . Naively that means holding two models in memory: the policy being trained and a frozen reference. On a 16GB card, a second copy of even a 4B model is unaffordable. LoRA makes the second copy unnecessary. Because training only updates the low-rank adapter and the base weights are frozen, the reference policy is the current policy with its adapters switched off. To get , Unsloth (via PEFT's adapter toggling) disables the LoRA adapters, runs the same base forward, and re-enables them, so a single set of base weights serves as both policy and reference. This is not an Unsloth invention, it is a property of LoRA that TRL exploits, but Unsloth's memory model depends on it: the vram-budget in the next chapter has exactly one copy of the base weights, and this is why.
fast_inference: an in-process vLLM engine sharing the weights
The costliest single thing in a GRPO step is not the gradient update, it is the generation. Every step, for every prompt, GRPO samples a whole group of completions (say 8), each potentially hundreds or thousands of tokens of chain-of-thought. Doing that with model.generate is painfully slow, because that is naive autoregressive decoding with none of the batching and paging tricks from Part II. So Unsloth's fast_inference=True stands up a real vLLM engine inside the same Python process as the trainer and routes GRPO's sampling through it.
The obvious worry is memory. vLLM normally loads its own copy of the model weights. If the trainer holds the 4-bit base and vLLM holds a second copy for serving, you have paid for the weights twice, and on 16GB that is fatal. The thing that makes fast_inference viable on this card is weight sharing: Unsloth arranges for the vLLM engine and the training path to reference the same underlying weight tensors rather than each holding an independent copy. There is one set of base weights in VRAM. The trainer reads them for the forward and backward pass; the vLLM engine reads them (plus the current LoRA adapter, applied on top) to generate. When the optimizer updates the adapter, the updated adapter is what the next round of generation uses, so the policy vLLM samples from stays in lockstep with the policy being trained, without ever serializing a checkpoint out and reloading it into a separate server.
Picture VRAM as holding a single 4-bit weight buffer and a single LoRA adapter . Two subsystems read them:
- The trainer reads and for the policy forward/backward, holds gradients and optimizer state for only, and holds training-time activations.
- The vLLM engine reads and for generation, and holds its own KV cache plus a little scheduler bookkeeping.
The two do not share the KV cache or the optimizer state, but they do share and . So the memory equation is not 2 x weights + everything else, it is 1 x weights + optimizer/grad on the adapter + training activations + vLLM KV cache. The single tunable that splits the card between these two consumers is gpu_memory_utilization, which you pass to FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained. It is the fraction of the card vLLM is allowed to claim for its KV cache and working set. Set it too high and the trainer's activations OOM; set it too low and vLLM can hold too few concurrent sequences and generation crawls. Tuning that one number is most of what the next chapter's budget is about.
There is a subtlety worth stating because it bites people. vLLM likes to own a big contiguous slab of memory up front for its paged KV cache, allocated when the engine initializes, based on gpu_memory_utilization. The trainer's peak, by contrast, arrives later, during the backward pass of the longest sequence in a group. Because vLLM grabs its slab first and holds it, the memory the trainer sees available is already net of vLLM's claim. That ordering is why an under-provisioned run often survives generation and then OOMs several steps in, on a backward pass, when a long completion makes training activations spike into space vLLM already fenced off. The fix is always the same: lower gpu_memory_utilization to give the trainer more headroom, or shorten the max completion length so the activation spike is smaller.
Tooling
The tool is unsloth, and the surface you actually touch is small: one loader, one adapter-attach call, and a set of environment and version constraints you violate at your peril. Everything else is the patched machinery running underneath TRL.
The loader is FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained. It does four things at once: downloads or reads the base model, quantizes it to 4-bit (bitsandbytes NF4) if you asked, installs the Triton patches for that architecture, and, when fast_inference=True, initializes the in-process vLLM engine against the shared weights. The important arguments for this book are model_name, max_seq_length (which bounds both training context and vLLM's max model length), load_in_4bit, fast_inference, max_lora_rank (vLLM needs to know the adapter rank up front to size its LoRA machinery), and gpu_memory_utilization (the split from the last box). Then FastLanguageModel.get_peft_model attaches the LoRA adapters to the target modules, and from that point the returned model is what you hand to TRL's GRPOTrainer.
The version discipline is not optional and is the thing this chapter most wants you to internalize. Because Unsloth patches transformers, TRL, and PEFT by their internal structure, it ships against a tested matrix of versions and expects you to stay on it. uv is exactly the right tool for this, because the whole point of uv in this book is a pinned, lockfile-backed environment that resolves identically tomorrow. The rule I follow: let Unsloth pull in the versions of transformers, trl, peft, vllm, and bitsandbytes that it declares compatible, pin the resulting lock, and treat that lock as part of the experiment's identity (it gets logged to MLflow alongside the git SHA, per the Part 0 tracking spine). When I want to upgrade, I upgrade the whole set deliberately and re-run the acceptance lab, rather than letting a stray uv add bump transformers underneath a patched function.
- Import order.
from unsloth import FastLanguageModelmust come first, beforetransformers,trl, orpeftare imported. Put it at the very top of the file. If a linter reorders your imports alphabetically, exclude that line or you will silently lose the patches. - Bumping a patched dependency. Running
uv add "transformers>=<newer>"to get some unrelated feature can move transformers off the version Unsloth patched, and now the attention or RMSNorm patch does not match. Symptoms range from anAttributeErrorat load to a quiet fallback that just uses more memory. Upgrade the whole Unsloth-blessed set together, never one member of it. - A vLLM the fast_inference path does not expect.
fast_inferenceis tied to a vLLM version range because it drives vLLM's engine internals for weight sharing. A mismatched vLLM often surfaces as an error during engine init or a crash the first time GRPO tries to generate. Pin vLLM to what Unsloth wants.
The baseline machine is a Blackwell RTX 5080 on the NVIDIA 570-open driver (see the hardware baseline). Unsloth's kernels are Triton, which JIT-compiles to PTX for the target architecture, and the in-process vLLM engine ships CUDA kernels that must have Blackwell (sm_120) support. This is the one place where "just pip install it" genuinely fails on new hardware: an older Triton or an older vLLM/PyTorch built before Blackwell support will either refuse to compile a kernel or fall back in a way that erases the speedup. So on this card the version matrix has a hard floor set by the hardware, not just by Unsloth's patch targets: PyTorch, Triton, and vLLM all have to be recent enough to emit sm_120 code against the CUDA toolkit the 570 driver supports. When a lab in this Part reports a clean run, the driver and CUDA versions are part of what made it clean, which is exactly why every measured number in the book is stamped with the driver.
Lab: an Unsloth patch manifest
The point of a "hello world" for a library that works by side effects is to see the side effects. So the artifact here is not a trained model, it is a patch manifest: a JSON file that records what Unsloth changed about the runtime when I imported it, what the loaded model looks like, and whether the in-process vLLM engine actually came up. It is the diagnostic I reach for first when a later training lab misbehaves, because it answers "is my Unsloth install even doing what it should?" before I go hunting in the training loop.
Set up the project with uv, letting Unsloth drag in its blessed versions of the rest of the stack.
uv init labs/unsloth-manifest
cd labs/unsloth-manifest
# Unsloth pins compatible transformers/trl/peft/vllm/bitsandbytes itself.
uv add "unsloth" "unsloth_zoo" "vllm" "trl" "peft" "bitsandbytes"
uv add mlflow
uv lock # freeze the resolved set; this lockfile is part of the experiment
The manifest script imports Unsloth first, snapshots the versions of everything in the patched stack, records which target functions now point at Unsloth code, loads a small 4-bit model with fast_inference=True, and confirms the vLLM engine initialized. I use a small policy here (Qwen3-1.7B) so the lab runs quickly; the real training uses a larger one in the next chapter.
"""Record what Unsloth patched, then load a 4-bit model with in-process vLLM.
Writes artifacts/patch_manifest.json: the version matrix, which hot-path
functions now resolve to unsloth code, and whether fast_inference came up.
This is the first thing to check when a later GRPO lab misbehaves.
"""
# Unsloth MUST be imported before transformers/trl/peft so its patches apply.
from unsloth import FastLanguageModel # noqa: E402 (import order is load-bearing)
import json
import importlib.metadata as md
from pathlib import Path
import torch
OUT = Path("artifacts")
OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
MODEL = "unsloth/Qwen3-1.7B" # small; swap to a 4B policy in ch. 7.2
MAX_SEQ = 2048
MAX_LORA_RANK = 32
def versions() -> dict:
pkgs = ["unsloth", "unsloth_zoo", "transformers", "trl", "peft",
"vllm", "bitsandbytes", "torch", "triton"]
out = {}
for p in pkgs:
try:
out[p] = md.version(p)
except md.PackageNotFoundError:
out[p] = None
out["cuda"] = torch.version.cuda
out["device"] = torch.cuda.get_device_name(0) if torch.cuda.is_available() else None
out["capability"] = list(torch.cuda.get_device_capability(0)) if torch.cuda.is_available() else None
return out
def patched_functions() -> dict:
"""Check whether known hot-path functions now live in an unsloth module.
We do not assert a specific target (that changes across transformers
versions); we record where each resolves so a bad install is visible.
"""
import transformers
report = {}
# Look at a couple of representative modules if present.
candidates = [
("transformers.models.qwen3.modeling_qwen3", "Qwen3RMSNorm", "forward"),
("transformers.models.qwen2.modeling_qwen2", "Qwen2RMSNorm", "forward"),
]
import importlib
for mod_name, cls_name, attr in candidates:
try:
mod = importlib.import_module(mod_name)
cls = getattr(mod, cls_name)
fn = getattr(cls, attr)
where = getattr(fn, "__module__", "?")
report[f"{cls_name}.{attr}"] = {
"resolves_to": where,
"looks_patched": "unsloth" in (where or "").lower(),
}
except (ImportError, AttributeError):
report[f"{cls_name}.{attr}"] = {"resolves_to": None, "looks_patched": False}
return report
def main() -> None:
manifest = {"versions": versions()}
torch.cuda.reset_peak_memory_stats()
model, tokenizer = FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained(
model_name=MODEL,
max_seq_length=MAX_SEQ,
load_in_4bit=True,
fast_inference=True, # stand up the in-process vLLM engine
max_lora_rank=MAX_LORA_RANK,
gpu_memory_utilization=0.5, # give vLLM half the card for KV cache
)
model = FastLanguageModel.get_peft_model(
model,
r=MAX_LORA_RANK,
target_modules=["q_proj", "k_proj", "v_proj", "o_proj",
"gate_proj", "up_proj", "down_proj"],
lora_alpha=MAX_LORA_RANK,
use_gradient_checkpointing="unsloth", # offloaded checkpointing
)
manifest["patched_functions"] = patched_functions()
manifest["fast_inference_up"] = hasattr(model, "vllm_engine") or hasattr(model, "fast_generate")
manifest["weights_dtype_4bit"] = any(
"4bit" in str(getattr(p, "quant_state", "")).lower()
or p.dtype == torch.uint8
for p in model.parameters()
)
trainable = sum(p.numel() for p in model.parameters() if p.requires_grad)
total = sum(p.numel() for p in model.parameters())
manifest["params"] = {"trainable": trainable, "total_reported": total,
"trainable_fraction": trainable / max(total, 1)}
manifest["vram_after_load_bytes"] = torch.cuda.memory_allocated()
manifest["vram_peak_bytes"] = torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated()
path = OUT / "patch_manifest.json"
path.write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
print(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
print(f"\nArtifact: {path.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it:
uv run python manifest.py
```admonish gotcha title="trainable_fraction should be tiny, and total_reported will look wrong"
Two things in the output confuse people. First, trainable is the LoRA parameter count and should be well under 1% of the model, because only the adapters train. If it is 100%, get_peft_model did not attach or you loaded a full-precision model by accident. Second, total_reported from numel() under-counts 4-bit weights, because bitsandbytes packs two 4-bit values into one uint8 element, so numel() reports the packed count, not the logical parameter count. Do not read that number as the model's parameter count; read it as a sanity check that the trainable slice is small. The real byte budget comes from the arithmetic in the next chapter, not from numel().
### What you should see
The script prints and writes `artifacts/patch_manifest.json`. The `versions` block should show a mutually consistent set (the transformers, trl, peft, vllm, and bitsandbytes that Unsloth resolved), a `cuda` string, and a `device` of "NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5080" with capability `[12, 0]` on the baseline machine, confirming Blackwell `sm_120`. The `patched_functions` block should show at least one entry whose `resolves_to` module contains "unsloth" and `looks_patched: true`, which is the direct evidence that the import did rewrite the hot path; if every entry is `looks_patched: false`, your import order is wrong or your transformers version drifted off Unsloth's patch target, and that is the bug to fix before anything else. `fast_inference_up` should be `true`, meaning the in-process vLLM engine initialized against the shared weights. `trainable_fraction` should be a fraction of a percent. And `vram_peak_bytes` records what the load actually cost on the card: on the baseline machine, note this value with the date and driver (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver), because it is the empirical anchor for the byte-level budget the next chapter builds symbolically. When the arithmetic there says "the base weights plus vLLM's claim should be around N GiB", this manifest's peak is the number you check it against.
```admonish read-along
This chapter has no clean textbook analogue, because Unsloth's internals are a moving library rather than a settled result, but read it against the autograd derivation in Part I ([MADL] ch. 3 to 4). Every kernel trick here (fused RMSNorm, recomputed SwiGLU, chunked cross-entropy) is the same memory-for-compute deal that reverse-mode differentiation forces, applied one operation at a time. If you understood why the backward pass must store activations, you already understand why Unsloth's whole design is about refusing to store them.
"The library that rewrites your other libraries at import time." Most dependencies are polite: they wait in their namespace to be called. Unsloth is not. The moment you import it, it reaches into transformers, TRL, and PEFT and hot-swaps their most expensive functions for hand-tuned Triton kernels, which is why it can train a reasoning model on a 16GB gaming card and also why it breaks the instant you bump transformers by a patch version. The post writes itself around one vivid number: the naive cross-entropy over a 150k-token vocabulary on a 4k-token reasoning trace transiently allocates ~4.6 GiB of memory for a single sequence's loss, and Unsloth's chunked kernel never lets that tensor exist. The deeper hook is that this is the same trade reverse-mode autodiff has always forced (cheap gradients paid for in stored activations), pushed down to the kernel level: every speedup is really a refusal to remember something, recomputed on the way back.
GRPO on 16GB
This is the chapter where the card fills up. Everything before Part VII was either inference (one model, forward pass only) or the theory of the training algorithms; here I actually run GRPO on the baseline machine and have to account for every gigabyte, because a training step holds more live tensors at once than anything else in the book. The good news, which I want to state up front so the arithmetic that follows has a destination, is that a 4B policy trained with LoRA over a 4-bit base, with generation handled by the in-process vLLM engine from the last chapter, fits in 16GB with real headroom to spare. The whole job of this chapter is to show why it fits, line by line, and then to spend the headroom deliberately: on group size, on completion length, on batch. I will build the full config for a Qwen3-4B policy, do the complete VRAM budget for the RTX 5080, reason about throughput from the roofline, and then run a first GRPO job on a toy verifiable task with every number logged to MLflow.
Theory
What one GRPO step actually holds in memory
Recall the GRPO step from Part V, because the memory budget is just its data dependencies made physical. For each prompt in the batch, the trainer samples a group of completions from the current policy, scores each with the reward functions, and computes the group-relative advantage by centering (and, in vanilla GRPO, scaling) each reward against the group's own mean:
Then it forms the clipped surrogate objective with a KL penalty to the reference policy and takes an optimizer step on the LoRA adapter. The memory-relevant fact is that a single step touches, at various moments, four distinct large things:
- The base weights, read for both generation and the policy forward/backward. One copy, shared (last chapter).
- The generation working set: vLLM's KV cache for the concurrent completions it is sampling.
- The training activations: the forward-pass activations of the policy on the sampled completions, kept alive for the backward pass, one micro-batch at a time.
- The optimizer footprint: gradients and Adam state, but only for the LoRA adapter, which is tiny.
The reason the whole thing fits is that three of those four are small or shared, and only the training activations genuinely scale with your choices (group size, completion length, micro-batch). So the budget is mostly fixed cost plus one variable term you control. Let me make it exact.
The complete budget
The card has bytes. I will account for a Qwen3-4B policy (4.02B params; 36 layers, hidden , intermediate 9728, 32 query heads, 8 KV heads, head dim 128, vocab ) trained with LoRA rank over an NF4 4-bit base, group size , prompt length , completion length (so max sequence ), sampled and trained one prompt-group at a time. Every line is arithmetic; the two lines marked (measure) are the ones only a run can pin down.
1. CUDA context, PyTorch caching allocator, Triton cache. Fixed overhead the moment you touch the GPU. Not derivable from model shape; on this stack it is roughly . Budget (measure).
2. Base weights, NF4 4-bit (shared by trainer and vLLM). NF4 stores 4 bits per weight plus a double-quantized per-block absmax, an effective bits/param bytes/param: This is the single copy both the trainer and the vLLM engine read.
3. LoRA adapters (bf16, trainable). Per layer, summing over the seven target projections, the adapter parameter count is ; across 36 layers that is . At : params. In bf16:
4. LoRA gradients (bf16). Same shape as the adapters: .
5. Optimizer state, 8-bit AdamW (Unsloth default). Two moments per trainable param at 1 byte each (block-quantized): (With full fp32 AdamW it would be ; the 8-bit path is why the default is worth keeping.)
6. vLLM KV cache for generation. Per token, KV bytes . Holding full sequences of tokens needs
of live KV. vLLM does not allocate exactly this; it claims a slab sized by gpu_memory_utilization and pages completions into it, so the slab is bigger than the live minimum but that headroom is what lets it batch. The live floor is 1.13 GiB, and the number that actually enters the budget below is the slab, which at gpu_memory_utilization=0.16 on this 16 GiB card is . So the budgeted line 6 is the slab (), not the live floor.
7. Training activations, checkpointed and chunked (the variable term). With Unsloth's offloaded gradient checkpointing, only layer-boundary activations are kept and most are pushed to the 32GB of system DDR5, so the GPU-resident activation peak is roughly one layer's recompute buffer plus the chunked-cross-entropy block, not the whole graph. Order of magnitude for a micro-sequence: a layer activation is , and the working set across recompute plus the chunked-CE block and attention scratch lands around at peak. Budget (measure), and note that without chunked CE this line would spike by the multi-GiB logits tensor from the last chapter.
Sum.
Against a 16 GiB card that leaves roughly 9 GiB of headroom, which is not slack to celebrate but budget to spend: on a larger group , a longer completion , a bigger LoRA rank, or a 4B-plus base. The two levers that move the total most are gpu_memory_utilization (line 6) and completion length (lines 6 and 7 both scale with ). Everything else is nearly fixed. Record the two (measure) lines and the observed peak on the baseline machine with date and driver; the budget is a prediction the run either confirms or teaches me to correct.
The shape of that budget is the whole reason the loop closes on this card. The expensive things in full fine-tuning (fp32 master weights, fp32 Adam moments over all parameters, a full-precision reference model, the un-chunked logits tensor) are each individually larger than my entire actual footprint, and LoRA-over-4-bit plus the last chapter's kernels removes every one of them. What is left is dominated by two irreducible costs: one copy of the base weights, and the KV cache for generation. Both are shared or paged. That is why 4B fits with room, and it is also why pushing much past 4B, or to full fine-tuning, is where 16GB finally says no.
Throughput: where the time actually goes
A GRPO step is generation-bound, not gradient-bound, and the roofline from Part II says why. The optimizer step touches only the 33M LoRA parameters, a trivial amount of compute and memory traffic. The forward/backward over the sampled completions is real work but bounded. The generation, though, decodes tokens per prompt-group, autoregressively, and decode is memory-bandwidth-bound: every token read the whole weight set. The 4-bit Qwen3-4B has a batch-1 decode ceiling of
but vLLM does not decode at batch 1: it batches the completions of a group (and prompts across the batch), which amortizes each weight read across many sequences and pushes aggregate generation throughput well above the single-sequence ceiling. This is exactly the reason fast_inference exists: naive model.generate would decode the group serially near that 464 tok/s ceiling, while the paged, continuous-batching vLLM engine keeps the tensor cores fed across the whole group. The practical consequence for planning: step time is roughly (tokens generated per step) / (batched generation tok/s) + (a smaller forward/backward term), and you make a run faster mostly by generating fewer or shorter completions, not by touching the optimizer. The actual step time and generation throughput are measured quantities (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver), and the lab logs them so the plan can be checked against reality.
Tooling
Two objects carry a GRPO run: the model, loaded by FastLanguageModel exactly as in the last chapter, and GRPOConfig/GRPOTrainer from TRL, whose knobs I need to set with the budget above in mind. The config is where the abstract choices (, , batch) become concrete fields, so it is worth walking every one that matters on 16GB.
num_generationsis , the group size: how many completions are sampled per prompt to compute the group-relative advantage. It is the single most important GRPO hyperparameter, because the advantage is only as informative as the group is diverse. Too small (say 2) and the mean/std estimate is noisy; larger (8 to 16) gives a stabler baseline at linear cost in generation time and KV cache. I start at 8.per_device_train_batch_sizeandgradient_accumulation_stepstogether set how many completions the trainer processes per optimizer step. In TRL's GRPO these count completions, and the total must be a multiple ofnum_generationsso that whole groups are kept together. On 16GB I keep the per-device batch small (it multiplies the activation term, line 7 of the budget) and use gradient accumulation to reach an effective batch that is stable, trading step time for memory.max_prompt_lengthandmax_completion_lengthare and . Both feed the KV-cache and activation lines directly.max_completion_lengthis the one I watch hardest, because a reasoning model wants to generate long chains of thought and the activation spike on the backward of the longest completion in a group is the classic late-run OOM.learning_ratefor the LoRA path is higher than full fine-tuning tolerates (the adapter is small and needs to move); a few times to is the usual range, warmed up.betais the KL-to-reference coefficient. It is the leash on how far the policy drifts from the base model, and it is the main dial the reward-hacking chapter turns. Some recipes (DAPO-style) set it to 0 and rely on clipping alone; I start with a small positive value.epsilon(andepsilon_highfor clip-higher) is the PPO clip range on the importance ratio, capping how much one step can move the policy on any token.num_iterationsis , the number of optimization passes over each batch of generated data (the PPO inner epochs). More reuse of expensive generations, at the risk of going off-policy.loss_typeselects the aggregation:"grpo"(token-mean with the length quirk) or"dr_grpo"(the length-bias fix from Part V, the aggregation the DAPO recipe popularized). DAPO itself is a training recipe, not aloss_typevalue, so the valid TRL choice for its length-unbiased aggregation isdr_grpo. This choice interacts with reward hacking, so I name it explicitly rather than take the default.temperature,top_p: the sampling parameters vLLM uses to generate the group. Diversity in the group is what makes the advantage informative, so I do not sample greedily.report_to="mlflow"wires the trainer's metrics into the tracking spine from Part 0.
Two config mistakes account for most first-run failures. First, per_device_train_batch_size * gradient_accumulation_steps must be an integer multiple of num_generations; if it is not, TRL either errors at setup or silently regroups in a way that corrupts the advantage estimate. Keep the effective batch a clean multiple of . Second, max_completion_length set generously "just in case" is not free even if completions are usually short: vLLM sizes its KV budget and the trainer sizes its activation headroom for the maximum, so an 8k cap you rarely hit still shrinks the memory available to everything else and can turn a run that would have fit into one that OOMs on the first long group. Set it to the length you actually need for the task and raise it deliberately.
```admonish under-the-hood title="How Unsloth and TRL split the use_vllm responsibility"
TRL's GRPOConfig has a use_vllm flag and a notion of a vLLM server. Under Unsloth, the in-process engine from fast_inference=True is that server, colocated in the training process and sharing weights, so you do not stand up a separate vLLM process or point the trainer at a URL. The consequence for the budget: there is no second process with its own CUDA context and its own weight copy, which would have doubled lines 1 and 2. The consequence for config: some vLLM-server-specific fields in GRPOConfig are handled by Unsloth's loader (gpu_memory_utilization, max_lora_rank) rather than by the trainer, which is why those live on FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained and not on GRPOConfig. Set the memory split on the loader; set the algorithm on the config.
## Lab: a first GRPO run on a toy verifiable task, tracked in MLflow
The goal of a first run is not to train a good model, it is to close the loop and watch every budgeted number appear in the tracker. So the task is deliberately trivial and perfectly verifiable: give the model two integers and ask it to output their sum, requiring the answer inside a specific tag so I also have a *format* signal to reward. This is a stand-in; chapter 7.3 swaps in the real thesis-suite scorers. The artifact is a saved LoRA adapter plus an MLflow run holding the config, the version lock, the reward curve, and the peak VRAM.
Set up the project, letting Unsloth pin the stack, and start the MLflow server from Part 0 (or point at the one already running).
```bash title="shell"
uv init labs/grpo-first
cd labs/grpo-first
uv add "unsloth" "unsloth_zoo" "vllm" "trl" "peft" "bitsandbytes" mlflow
uv lock
# MLflow tracking server from the Part 0 spine (localhost):
export MLFLOW_TRACKING_URI=http://127.0.0.1:5000
First the task and its two reward functions. The reward signature TRL expects is a callable taking prompts, completions, and arbitrary extra columns as keyword arguments, returning one float per completion.
"""A trivial, perfectly verifiable task: add two integers, answer in <ans>...</ans>.
Correctness reward is exact-match on the parsed integer; format reward pays for
emitting exactly one well-formed <ans> tag. This is a stand-in for the real
thesis-suite scorers wired in chapter 7.3.
"""
import random
import re
ANS_RE = re.compile(r"<ans>\s*(-?\d+)\s*</ans>")
SYSTEM = (
"You are a careful calculator. Think briefly, then give the final answer "
"as a single integer inside <ans></ans> tags, e.g. <ans>42</ans>."
)
def make_dataset(n: int, seed: int = 0):
from datasets import Dataset
rng = random.Random(seed)
rows = []
for _ in range(n):
a, b = rng.randint(0, 999), rng.randint(0, 999)
rows.append({
"prompt": [
{"role": "system", "content": SYSTEM},
{"role": "user", "content": f"What is {a} + {b}?"},
],
"target": a + b, # extra column, passed through to rewards
})
return Dataset.from_list(rows)
def _text(completion) -> str:
# TRL passes conversational completions as a list of {role, content} dicts.
if isinstance(completion, list):
return completion[-1]["content"]
return completion
def correctness_reward(prompts, completions, target, **kwargs):
out = []
for comp, tgt in zip(completions, target):
m = ANS_RE.search(_text(comp))
out.append(1.0 if (m and int(m.group(1)) == tgt) else 0.0)
return out
def format_reward(prompts, completions, **kwargs):
out = []
for comp in completions:
matches = ANS_RE.findall(_text(comp))
out.append(0.2 if len(matches) == 1 else 0.0)
return out
Now the training script. Note the import order (Unsloth first), the memory split on the loader, and the algorithm on the config.
"""First GRPO run: Qwen3-4B, LoRA r=16, in-process vLLM, tracked in MLflow.
Artifact: a saved LoRA adapter in outputs/ plus an MLflow run holding the
config, the uv lock hash, the reward curve, and peak VRAM.
"""
from unsloth import FastLanguageModel # noqa: E402 (must precede trl/transformers)
import hashlib
import os
from pathlib import Path
import mlflow
import torch
from trl import GRPOConfig, GRPOTrainer
from task import make_dataset, correctness_reward, format_reward
MODEL = "unsloth/Qwen3-4B"
MAX_SEQ = 1024
LORA_R = 16
GROUP = 8
def uv_lock_hash() -> str:
p = Path("uv.lock")
return hashlib.sha256(p.read_bytes()).hexdigest()[:12] if p.exists() else "nolock"
def main() -> None:
model, tokenizer = FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained(
model_name=MODEL,
max_seq_length=MAX_SEQ,
load_in_4bit=True,
fast_inference=True,
max_lora_rank=LORA_R,
gpu_memory_utilization=0.16, # line 6 of the budget: vLLM's ~2.5 GiB slab
)
model = FastLanguageModel.get_peft_model(
model,
r=LORA_R,
target_modules=["q_proj", "k_proj", "v_proj", "o_proj",
"gate_proj", "up_proj", "down_proj"],
lora_alpha=LORA_R,
use_gradient_checkpointing="unsloth",
)
train_ds = make_dataset(512, seed=0)
cfg = GRPOConfig(
output_dir="outputs",
num_generations=GROUP, # G
per_device_train_batch_size=GROUP, # one group per device step
gradient_accumulation_steps=1, # effective batch = one group
max_prompt_length=256,
max_completion_length=768, # watch this line hardest
learning_rate=5e-6,
beta=0.02, # KL-to-reference leash
epsilon=0.2, # PPO clip
num_iterations=1, # mu: one pass per batch
loss_type="dr_grpo", # length-bias-corrected aggregation
temperature=1.0,
top_p=1.0,
max_steps=100, # a short first run
logging_steps=1,
save_steps=50,
report_to="mlflow",
run_name="grpo-first-add",
seed=0,
)
torch.cuda.reset_peak_memory_stats()
mlflow.set_experiment("p7-grpo")
with mlflow.start_run(run_name="grpo-first-add"):
mlflow.log_params({
"model": MODEL, "lora_r": LORA_R, "group": GROUP,
"max_completion_length": cfg.max_completion_length,
"beta": cfg.beta, "loss_type": cfg.loss_type,
"uv_lock": uv_lock_hash(),
"driver": os.popen("nvidia-smi --query-gpu=driver_version "
"--format=csv,noheader").read().strip(),
})
trainer = GRPOTrainer(
model=model,
processing_class=tokenizer,
reward_funcs=[correctness_reward, format_reward],
args=cfg,
train_dataset=train_ds,
)
trainer.train()
peak = torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated() # caveat: misses vLLM's separate KV slab
mlflow.log_metric("vram_peak_gib", peak / 2**30)
adapter_dir = Path("outputs/final-adapter")
model.save_lora(str(adapter_dir))
mlflow.log_artifacts(str(adapter_dir), artifact_path="lora")
print(f"peak VRAM: {peak / 2**30:.2f} GiB")
print(f"adapter saved: {adapter_dir.resolve()}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it, with the MLflow UI open in a browser at the tracking URI:
uv run python train.py
```admonish gotcha title="num_generations must divide the effective batch, and rewards must return a plain list"
If TRL raises about batch size at trainer construction, it is the divisibility rule: per_device_train_batch_size * gradient_accumulation_steps has to be a multiple of num_generations. Here both equal 8, so the effective batch is one clean group. And each reward function must return a Python list of floats the same length as completions, not a tensor and not a numpy array; a shape or type mismatch there surfaces as a confusing error deep inside the advantage computation, not at your function, so validate your rewards on a handful of strings before launching a run.
### What you should see
Two artifacts land: `outputs/final-adapter/`, the trained LoRA adapter (a few tens of MB, matching budget line 3), and an MLflow run under the `p7-grpo` experiment holding the config params, the `uv.lock` hash, the driver string, the per-step reward, and `vram_peak_gib`. In the MLflow UI, the reward curve is the thing to watch: on a task this easy, `correctness_reward` should climb from near zero toward 1.0 within the 100 steps as the policy learns to actually emit the right integer, and `format_reward` should saturate near its 0.2 ceiling almost immediately, because getting the tag right is easier than getting the sum right. If correctness never moves, the usual culprits are a completion length too short to fit the model's chain of thought before the tag, a temperature so low the group has no diversity for the advantage to exploit, or a reward function silently returning zeros because the tag parse failed. The number that validates this whole chapter is `vram_peak_gib`: the budget predicted roughly 6.9 GiB, and the measured peak should land in that neighborhood, a couple of GiB either way depending on how big a slab vLLM actually claimed at `gpu_memory_utilization=0.16` and how long the longest group's completions ran. One caveat on that measurement: `torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated()` counts only the PyTorch caching allocator's peak, so it misses vLLM's separate KV slab (line 6) entirely; the honest total is the reported peak plus that slab, and `nvidia-smi` is the cross-check that catches what the torch counter cannot see. Record it with the date and driver (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver). When the measured peak and the symbolic budget agree to within the *(measure)* lines' uncertainty, the accounting is trustworthy, and I can spend the remaining headroom in the next chapters knowing what each choice costs. When they disagree, the disagreement is the most useful thing the run produced, because it points at exactly which line of the budget I got wrong.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
A[Prompt x] --> B[vLLM engine<br/>sample G completions]
B --> C[Reward funcs<br/>correctness + format]
C --> D[Group-relative<br/>advantage A_i]
D --> E[Clipped surrogate<br/>+ KL to ref]
E --> F[Optimizer step<br/>LoRA only]
F -->|updated adapter| B
Read this alongside the GRPO derivation in Part V ([RLHF] Lambert on policy-gradient RLHF, and [S&B] ch. 13 for the policy-gradient foundation the surrogate objective rests on). The config fields here are that math's hyperparameters: beta is the KL coefficient in the objective, epsilon is the clip range, num_generations is the group size the advantage is normalized over, and loss_type is the aggregation choice whose length bias Part V dissects. If a field's effect is unclear, the derivation is where its meaning lives.
"I trained a reasoning model on a gaming GPU, and here is the memory receipt." The hook is the full byte-level budget: one 4B model, trained with reinforcement learning, on a 16GB card, and it fits at under 7 GiB with room to spare. The surprise for most readers is why it fits, which is a story of everything you do not pay for: no fp32 master weights (LoRA), no full-model optimizer state (LoRA again), no separate reference model (adapters off), no duplicated weights for the sampler (shared with in-process vLLM), and no multi-gigabyte logits tensor (chunked cross-entropy). What is left is two irreducible costs, one copy of the weights and the KV cache for generation, and both are shared or paged. The post turns "can you even do this on consumer hardware?" from a vibe into an accounting statement, line by line, and lands on the counterintuitive punchline that the optimizer step is the cheap part: a GRPO run is bottlenecked on generating text, not on learning from it.
Scorers as rewards
Here is the hinge the whole book turns on. In Part III I built scorers as measurement instruments: a scorer takes a model's completion and returns a number that says how good it was, and I was careful to make the good ones programmatic, reproducible, and cheap, precisely because I knew this chapter was coming. In Part V I derived GRPO, whose one external input is a reward: a number that says how good a completion was. Those are the same number. A verifier that can measure whether a reasoning trace reached the right answer can reward a policy for reaching it, and the only difference is which loop the number feeds. This chapter makes that identity real by taking the actual scorers from the thesis suite and wiring them into GRPOTrainer as reward functions. It is the load-bearing chapter of Part VII, because if this join is sloppy, every training result downstream is measuring something other than what I think, and if it is clean, the serve-evaluate-score-train-re-evaluate loop is finally a single closed circuit rather than four separate tools.
Theory
A scorer and a reward are the same function wearing two hats
Be precise about the claim, because "evals as rewards" is a slogan and I want the mechanism. A Part III scorer, in the Inspect sense, is a function from (a completed sample, its target) to a Score: a value, usually in or a CORRECT/INCORRECT label, plus metadata explaining the judgment and, critically, the log entry that makes the judgment auditable and re-scorable later. A GRPO reward function, in the TRL sense, is a function from (prompts, a batch of completions, and any passthrough columns) to a list of floats, one per completion. Strip away the framework packaging and both are the same core operation: parse a final answer out of a generated string, decide whether it matches the gold answer, return a number. The verifier at the center, the part that actually knows what "correct" means for this task, does not care whether its output is going to be averaged into an accuracy statistic or centered into a group-relative advantage.
That is why the discipline I imposed in Part III pays off exactly now. Because the thesis-suite scorers were written as pure, deterministic, side-effect-free verifiers (regex extraction, symbolic canonicalization, exact comparison) rather than as model-graded judges baked into an eval harness, I can lift the verifier out and call it in a training loop without dragging the whole harness along. The re-scorable log format from chapter 3.4 was not a nicety; it was the design decision that guaranteed the scorer's core was a standalone function I could reuse here. The alternative, a scorer entangled with Inspect's solver and dataset machinery, would force me to either run a full eval per training step (impossibly slow) or reimplement the verifier (two verifiers that drift apart, which is worse than none).
The recurring worked example of this book is the SDA task: a family of verifiable multi-step reasoning problems where the model must show its work and then commit to a final answer in a canonical form, and a verifier decides correctness by canonicalizing and comparing, not by string-matching. Concretely, an SDA item gives a problem, expects the model to reason inside <think>...</think> and then emit its answer inside <answer>...</answer>, and the verifier extracts the answer, normalizes it symbolically (so that 1/2, 0.5, and \frac{1}{2} all compare equal), and checks it against the gold answer. In Part III chapter 3.4 I wrote exactly this verifier and used it to measure a model: run the SDA suite, score each sample, report accuracy with a bootstrap interval from the 3.7 evalstats module.
This chapter advances the SDA thread by one decisive step: the same verifier now returns a reward. Nothing about the verifier changes. What changes is that its output, instead of being tallied into an accuracy number I read, is centered within a group of completions to form the advantage that GRPO optimizes. The model that was being measured on the SDA suite is now being trained on it, by the identical function. The pre-training SDA accuracy I recorded in Part III becomes the baseline that chapter 7.6 tests the trained model against, and because it is literally the same scorer on both ends, the delta is honest: I am not measuring with one instrument and training against another. This is the join the entire thesis is built to demonstrate, and it lives in this one substitution.
Sparse correctness, dense format, and why you need both
A pure correctness reward (1 if the final answer is right, 0 otherwise) is the honest signal, and on a hard reasoning task it is also a nearly silent one. Early in training the model gets almost everything wrong, so the reward is 0 for nearly every completion in a group, the group mean is near 0, and the group-relative advantage is near 0 for everyone. There is nothing to learn from a group where every member scored identically, because GRPO's signal is the spread within the group. This is the sparse-reward problem from Part V made concrete: correctness alone gives the policy no gradient until it stumbles into a correct answer by chance often enough for the group to differentiate.
The standard fix is to add a format reward: a small, dense signal that pays the model for structural compliance it can achieve long before it can reason correctly. Did it produce exactly one <think> block and one <answer> block? Is the answer parseable as the expected type? These are things a model learns in a handful of steps, and rewarding them does two useful things. First, it gives the group something to differentiate on early, so the advantage is non-zero and learning starts. Second, and less obviously, it makes the correctness reward computable at all: a verifier can only check an answer it can extract, so teaching the model to emit a well-formed <answer> tag is a precondition for the correctness signal ever firing. Format reward is scaffolding, and like scaffolding it is meant to become irrelevant once the building stands.
The danger, which is the entire subject of the next chapter, is that format reward is gameable in a way correctness is not. A model can max out a format reward without ever reasoning, and if the format reward is large relative to correctness, the policy will happily learn to produce beautifully-tagged nonsense. So the two rewards are not peers. Correctness is the objective; format is a small dense nudge toward being able to receive the objective. The scaling has to reflect that hierarchy, which is the next thing to get right.
Shaping and scaling: what the numbers should be
Reward shaping is choosing the magnitudes so the policy optimizes what I mean. TRL sums the reward functions, so if I return correctness in and format in , a completion's total reward is in , and the ordering encodes my intent: a correct, well-formatted answer (1.2) beats a correct but malformed one (1.0) beats a wrong but well-formatted one (0.2) beats wrong-and-malformed (0.0). That ordering is the thing to design deliberately, and the ratio matters more than the absolute values.
GRPO normalizes rewards within each group before using them. With the standard advantage
multiplying every reward by a constant multiplies both numerator and denominator by and leaves unchanged. So the overall scale of your reward is invisible to vanilla GRPO; doubling all rewards does nothing. What is not invisible is the ratio between reward components, because that changes the relative spacing of completions within a group. If correctness contributes and format contributes , then two completions that differ only in format are separated by while two that differ in correctness are separated by , and the advantage will pull the policy toward whichever separation is larger where the group happens to vary. Set too high (say 0.5) and on groups where everyone is wrong but some are well-formatted, the policy learns formatting as if it were the goal. Set small (say 0.1 to 0.2) and format is a gentle early nudge that correctness overwhelms as soon as the group starts getting answers right. The design rule falls out of the algebra: pick component ratios, not absolute values, and keep the shaping component well below the objective component. Note the dr_grpo loss type drops the std-normalization denominator, which changes this analysis slightly (scale is no longer fully invisible), another reason to name the loss type explicitly.
Beyond the format-versus-correctness split, shaping has a few more moves worth knowing. Graded correctness replaces the binary with partial credit where the task allows it (a proof that gets three of four steps, a numeric answer within tolerance), which densifies the objective itself rather than adding a proxy. Bounded penalties (a small negative reward for, say, exceeding a length cap or emitting no answer tag at all) discourage specific pathologies, but every penalty is a new surface to game, so I add them reluctantly and watch them. And normalization of the verifier's own output matters: if a graded verifier returns scores on and the format reward is , the format term is numerically irrelevant, so I keep every component on a comparable scale before I reason about their ratios. The governing principle is that the reward is a specification of desired behavior written in the language of numbers, and every term I add is a clause in that specification that the policy will interpret adversarially.
Asynchronous scoring: the verifier is on the critical path
The last theory piece is a performance fact with a correctness consequence. A GRPO step generates completions per prompt and must score every one before it can compute advantages, so the verifier is called times per step, synchronously blocking the optimizer. For a cheap verifier (a regex and an integer compare) this is free. But the interesting thesis-suite verifiers are not always cheap: symbolic canonicalization with a computer-algebra system, or a code-execution verifier that runs the model's output in a sandbox, can take tens or hundreds of milliseconds each, and of those in series can rival the generation time. The step is already generation-bound (last chapter); I do not want to make it verifier-bound on top.
The fix is to score the group concurrently. Because the verifiers are pure functions of independent completions, scoring them is embarrassingly parallel: a thread pool (for I/O-bound verifiers like a sandbox subprocess or a CAS call that releases the GIL) or an async gather runs all verifications at once and returns when the slowest finishes, turning a sum of latencies into a max. This is safe only because the verifiers are side-effect-free and deterministic, which is again the Part III discipline paying a dividend: a scorer that mutated shared state or depended on call order could not be parallelized this way. Two guardrails come with concurrency: a timeout per verification, so one pathological completion (an infinite loop in a code-execution task) cannot stall the whole step, with a timeout scored as 0; and, optionally, a cache keyed on the completion text, since a group sometimes contains duplicate completions and re-verifying identical strings is waste. The reward module in the lab builds all of this in, because "the verifier is on the critical path" is exactly the kind of thing that is invisible on the toy task and dominant on the real one.
Tooling
The tool here is not a new library, it is a small module of my own, rewards.py, that adapts the thesis-suite verifiers into TRL's reward-function interface. Its job is to be the single, thin, auditable seam between the Part III scoring world and the Part V training world, and everything I learned about the join goes into keeping that seam honest.
The verifier I am adapting is the SDA scorer from chapter 3.4. In Inspect it is wrapped as a @scorer returning a Score, but its core is a pure function I exposed deliberately: extract the <answer> content, canonicalize it, compare to the target, return a float and a reason. The reward module imports that function, not the Inspect wrapper, so training and measurement share one verifier with no reimplementation. Around it the module adds the three things GRPO needs that measurement did not: the TRL calling convention (a list-in, list-out batch function reading passthrough columns), the format reward as a separate dense component, and the concurrency-plus-timeout machinery so a slow verifier does not throttle the step.
When you pass reward_funcs=[correctness, format], TRL calls each on the full batch of completions, gets a list of floats from each, and sums them elementwise into one reward per completion. It then groups those rewards by prompt (groups of num_generations), computes the group mean and, for grpo, the group std, and forms per the derivation above. Two consequences for how you write rewards. First, since TRL sums the functions, keeping correctness and format as separate functions (rather than one function returning their sum) is purely for logging: TRL logs each reward function's mean separately, so splitting them lets you watch format and correctness diverge in MLflow, which is exactly the signal the next chapter needs to catch hacking. Second, TRL passes every non-prompt/completion dataset column through as a keyword argument, which is how the gold target reaches your verifier; name your dataset column and your function parameter identically or the passthrough silently misses.
Two parsing traps sit right at the seam. First, when the dataset uses conversational prompts, TRL hands each completion as a list of {role, content} messages, not a bare string, so the verifier must pull completion[-1]["content"] before parsing; a verifier written for plain strings will try to regex a list and score everything 0, which looks exactly like "the model learned nothing". Second, decide explicitly what an unparseable completion scores. A completion with no <answer> tag cannot be verified for correctness, and scoring it 0 (same as a wrong answer) is usually right, but it means the correctness and format signals are correlated early (no tag implies both wrong and unformatted), which you want to see reflected in the logged curves. Make the empty-answer policy a named decision in the code, not an accident of how the regex fails.
Lab: train against the thesis suite's scorers
The artifact of this chapter is the reward module itself, rewards.py, because it is the reusable seam every subsequent training run in the book imports. The lab wires it into a GRPO run on a slice of the SDA suite and confirms, in MLflow, that the correctness and format rewards move the way the theory says they should. This is the first real training run of the thesis: same model and budget as the last chapter, but now the reward is the genuine SDA verifier rather than a toy adder.
Set up the project, reusing the Unsloth-pinned stack and adding the thesis suite and a symbolic library for canonicalization.
uv init labs/grpo-sda
cd labs/grpo-sda
uv add "unsloth" "unsloth_zoo" "vllm" "trl" "peft" "bitsandbytes" mlflow
uv add sympy # symbolic canonicalization in the verifier
uv add "thesis-suite @ ../../thesis-suite" # the Part III scorers, as a local pkg
uv lock
export MLFLOW_TRACKING_URI=http://127.0.0.1:5000
The reward module. It imports the SDA verifier from the thesis suite (the same function chapter 3.4 measures with), wraps it for TRL, adds a dense format reward, and runs the verifiers concurrently with a per-item timeout.
"""Thesis-suite SDA scorers, adapted into GRPO reward functions.
This is the single seam between Part III measurement and Part V training.
Correctness reuses the EXACT verifier chapter 3.4 measures with; format is a
small dense shaping term; both run concurrently with a timeout so a slow
verifier does not throttle the step. Kept deliberately thin and auditable.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import re
from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor, TimeoutError as FTimeout
from functools import lru_cache
# The pure verifier from Part III chapter 3.4. Same function used for
# measurement; imported here, not reimplemented, so the two never drift.
from thesis_suite import verify_sda_answer # (response, target) -> bool
THINK_RE = re.compile(r"<think>.*?</think>", re.DOTALL)
ANSWER_RE = re.compile(r"<answer>(.*?)</answer>", re.DOTALL)
# --- shaping constants: ratios matter, not absolute scale (see derivation) ---
CORRECT_W = 1.0 # the objective
FORMAT_W = 0.2 # dense scaffold, kept well below the objective
NO_ANSWER = 0.0 # explicit policy: unparseable completion scores 0 correctness
VERIFY_TIMEOUT_S = 2.0
def _text(completion) -> str:
"""TRL hands conversational completions as message lists; pull the content."""
if isinstance(completion, list):
return completion[-1]["content"]
return completion
@lru_cache(maxsize=8192)
def _cached_verify(completion_text: str, target: str) -> bool:
"""Cache identical (completion, target) pairs; verifiers are pure."""
return bool(verify_sda_answer(completion_text, target))
def _verify_one(completion_text: str, target: str) -> float:
m = ANSWER_RE.search(completion_text)
if not m:
return NO_ANSWER # cannot verify what has no answer
try:
return CORRECT_W if _cached_verify(completion_text, str(target)) else 0.0
except Exception:
return 0.0 # a verifier that raises is a miss
def correctness_reward(prompts, completions, target, **kwargs):
"""Concurrent, timed correctness scoring via the shared SDA verifier."""
texts = [_text(c) for c in completions]
out = [0.0] * len(texts)
with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=min(16, len(texts) or 1)) as pool:
futures = {pool.submit(_verify_one, t, tgt): i
for i, (t, tgt) in enumerate(zip(texts, target))}
for fut, i in futures.items():
try:
out[i] = fut.result(timeout=VERIFY_TIMEOUT_S)
except FTimeout:
out[i] = 0.0 # pathological completion -> miss
return out
def format_reward(prompts, completions, **kwargs):
"""Dense scaffold: pay for exactly one well-formed think+answer structure."""
out = []
for c in completions:
t = _text(c)
ok = (len(THINK_RE.findall(t)) == 1
and len(ANSWER_RE.findall(t)) == 1)
out.append(FORMAT_W if ok else 0.0)
return out
REWARD_FUNCS = [correctness_reward, format_reward]
A quick standalone check of the rewards before spending GPU time, which is the habit the earlier gotcha argued for.
"""Validate reward functions on hand-written strings before launching a run."""
from rewards import correctness_reward, format_reward
good = "<think>2 and 2</think><answer>4</answer>"
bad_fmt = "the answer is 4"
wrong = "<think>...</think><answer>5</answer>"
comps = [good, bad_fmt, wrong]
tgts = ["4", "4", "4"]
print("correctness:", correctness_reward(None, comps, tgts)) # [1.0, 0.0, 0.0]
print("format :", format_reward(None, comps)) # [0.2, 0.0, 0.2]
uv run python check_rewards.py
Now the training script. It is the last chapter's script with the reward source swapped for the module above and the dataset drawn from the SDA suite.
"""GRPO on the SDA suite with the real thesis-suite verifier as reward."""
from unsloth import FastLanguageModel # noqa: E402
import hashlib
from pathlib import Path
import mlflow
import torch
from trl import GRPOConfig, GRPOTrainer
from rewards import REWARD_FUNCS
from thesis_suite.data import load_sda_split # Part III frozen v1.0 suite
MODEL = "unsloth/Qwen3-4B"
MAX_SEQ = 2048
LORA_R = 16
GROUP = 8
def main() -> None:
model, tokenizer = FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained(
model_name=MODEL, max_seq_length=MAX_SEQ, load_in_4bit=True,
fast_inference=True, max_lora_rank=LORA_R, gpu_memory_utilization=0.16,
)
model = FastLanguageModel.get_peft_model(
model, r=LORA_R,
target_modules=["q_proj", "k_proj", "v_proj", "o_proj",
"gate_proj", "up_proj", "down_proj"],
lora_alpha=LORA_R, use_gradient_checkpointing="unsloth",
)
# The TRAIN split only. The frozen v1.0 test split is never trained on;
# it is what chapter 7.6 measures the delta against, with the same scorer.
train_ds = load_sda_split("train")
cfg = GRPOConfig(
output_dir="outputs", num_generations=GROUP,
per_device_train_batch_size=GROUP, gradient_accumulation_steps=2,
max_prompt_length=512, max_completion_length=1024,
learning_rate=5e-6, beta=0.02, epsilon=0.2, num_iterations=1,
loss_type="dr_grpo", temperature=1.0, top_p=1.0,
max_steps=500, logging_steps=1, save_steps=100,
report_to="mlflow", run_name="grpo-sda-r16", seed=0,
)
torch.cuda.reset_peak_memory_stats()
mlflow.set_experiment("p7-grpo")
with mlflow.start_run(run_name="grpo-sda-r16"):
mlflow.log_params({
"model": MODEL, "lora_r": LORA_R, "group": GROUP,
"beta": cfg.beta, "loss_type": cfg.loss_type,
"correct_w": 1.0, "format_w": 0.2,
"uv_lock": hashlib.sha256(Path("uv.lock").read_bytes()).hexdigest()[:12],
})
trainer = GRPOTrainer(
model=model, processing_class=tokenizer,
reward_funcs=REWARD_FUNCS, args=cfg, train_dataset=train_ds,
)
trainer.train()
mlflow.log_metric("vram_peak_gib", torch.cuda.max_memory_allocated() / 2**30)
model.save_lora("outputs/sda-adapter")
mlflow.log_artifacts("outputs/sda-adapter", artifact_path="lora")
print("adapter saved: outputs/sda-adapter")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python train.py
The dataset here is the SDA train split. The frozen v1.0 test split from chapter 3.9 is sacred: it never appears in training, because chapter 7.6 uses it to measure the pre-versus-post delta with the identical verifier, and training on it would contaminate exactly the number the thesis rests on. Second, keep correctness_reward and format_reward as separate entries in reward_funcs even though TRL sums them, so MLflow logs rewards/correctness_reward/mean and rewards/format_reward/mean as distinct curves. Watching those two diverge is the primary diagnostic for the whole next chapter; collapse them into one function and you go blind to hacking.
What you should see
The artifact is rewards.py, the reusable seam, plus outputs/sda-adapter/, the LoRA adapter trained against the real SDA verifier, and an MLflow run under p7-grpo. In the MLflow UI the two reward curves tell the story the theory predicted. rewards/format_reward/mean should rise fast and saturate near its 0.2 ceiling within a few dozen steps, because structural compliance is easy and the dense signal drives it quickly. rewards/correctness_reward/mean should start near zero (early groups are almost all wrong, so the signal is sparse) and then, once format compliance makes answers reliably extractable, begin a slower climb as the policy actually gets better at the SDA reasoning. The shape to look for is format leading and correctness following, which is format-as-scaffolding working as designed. If correctness stays flat while format saturates, either the task is too hard for this model at this budget (the group never differentiates on correctness) or, more likely on a first run, the verifier is silently rejecting well-reasoned answers because of a canonicalization mismatch, which you debug by dumping a few completions the verifier scored 0 and checking them by hand against verify_sda_answer. The vram_peak_gib should again land near the last chapter's budget, a little higher for the longer max_completion_length=1024. Record the peak, the final reward means, and the step time with date and driver (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver). The deep thing this run establishes is not the reward number, it is that the number came from the same function that will measure the result in chapter 7.6, so the loop is now genuinely closed: one verifier, two hats, no drift.
Read this against [RLHF] Lambert on reward design and against the Part III scorer chapter (3.4) that this one consumes. Lambert's discussion of why verifiable rewards are more trustworthy than learned reward models is the theoretical backing for the whole "scorer as reward" move; chapter 3.4 is where the specific SDA verifier this lab imports was built and validated as a measurement instrument. The pairing is the point: read the two chapters as a single argument that the instrument and the reward should be, and here literally are, the same function.
"Your eval and your reward are the same function. Most people write them twice." The slogan is 'evals as rewards', but the mechanism is mundane and that is what makes it powerful: a verifier that checks whether a reasoning trace reached the right answer returns a number, and that number is equally happy being averaged into an accuracy statistic or centered into a reinforcement-learning advantage. Write the verifier once, as a pure deterministic function, and you can measure a model with it on Monday and train against it on Tuesday with zero reimplementation and, crucially, zero drift between what you optimized and what you report. The post's payoff is the pair of curves from a real run: a dense 'format' reward that saturates in minutes because getting the tags right is easy, and a sparse 'correctness' reward that only starts climbing once the model is formatted enough to be graded at all. That lag between the two is scaffolding doing its job, and it is also, as the next post will show, exactly where reward hacking hides.
Reward hacking and Goodhart
The last chapter ended on a warning, and this one collects on it. Once a scorer is a reward, the policy will optimize the scorer, and a policy optimizing a scorer is not the same thing as a policy getting good at the task. The scorer is a proxy for what I actually want, and every proxy has a gap between what it measures and what it means, and reinforcement learning is a machine for finding that gap and driving a truck through it. This is Goodhart's law stated operationally: the moment my SDA verifier became the target of optimization, it started to become a worse measure of SDA reasoning, because the policy is now rewarded for anything that makes the verifier fire, reasoning or not. This chapter is about seeing that happen, catching it early, and knowing when to stop. I will lay out a taxonomy of the hacks I actually expect, the signals that reveal them (KL, entropy, and the divergence between a training verifier and a held-out one), the honeypot tasks that bait hacks into the open, and a concrete stop-criteria doctrine. Then the lab does the thing you have to do at least once to believe it: deliberately builds an exploitable verifier, watches the policy hack it, and catches the hack with a held-out variant.
Theory
Goodhart, and the proxy-true reward gap
Write the thing I care about as the true reward : does this completion exhibit genuine SDA reasoning that reaches the correct answer for the right reasons. I cannot compute ; if I could, I would not need to train, I could just select. What I can compute is a proxy reward : my verifier's judgment. A good verifier makes correlate strongly with across the completions a model actually produces, which is exactly what made it a good measurement instrument in Part III. But correlation measured on the distribution of un-optimized completions is not a promise about the distribution of optimized ones. GRPO deliberately shifts the policy toward high- regions, and if there exist completions that are high- but low- (the verifier's blind spots), the policy will find them, because finding high-reward regions is the only thing the algorithm does. The gap between and is empty at the start of training and fills up as optimization proceeds, and reward hacking is just the name for the policy living in that gap.
This reframes the whole enterprise. In Part III I worried about construct validity for measurement: does the score reflect the construct on the model as it is. Here I need construct validity under optimization pressure: does the score still reflect the construct on the model the reward is actively reshaping. Those are different and the second is much harder, because the adversary generating the inputs to my verifier is a policy I am personally training to defeat it. Every verifier weakness that was a harmless rounding error during measurement becomes an attractor during training.
A taxonomy of the hacks I expect
Hacks are not infinitely varied; they cluster, and knowing the clusters tells me what to monitor.
Format gaming. When the format reward is too large relative to correctness (the exact failure the last chapter's scaling derivation warned about), the policy maxes the dense structural signal without improving the sparse correctness signal. The symptom is beautifully-tagged completions whose <answer> contents are no better than before. This is the mildest hack and the easiest to catch, because the format and correctness curves visibly decouple: format saturates and correctness flatlines, and I logged them separately in the last chapter precisely so I could see it.
Length gaming. GRPO has a known length bias (Part V), and depending on the loss aggregation and the reward, the policy can discover that longer, or shorter, completions score better for reasons unrelated to correctness. If the verifier gives partial credit for containing certain tokens, longer completions have more chances to include them; if there is a per-token penalty, completions collapse to terse non-reasoning. The symptom is mean completion length drifting hard in one direction while correctness does not follow. This is why completion length is a first-class monitored metric, not an afterthought.
Verifier exploits (spec gaming). The sharpest hacks target the verifier's implementation rather than the task. If the correctness check is a loose regex that scores a completion correct whenever the target answer appears anywhere in the text, the policy learns to print the answer inside its reasoning, or to enumerate many candidate answers so one matches, without ever doing the deduction. If a code-execution verifier can be satisfied by output that game the test harness (printing the expected string, catching and swallowing the real computation), the policy finds that. These are the dangerous ones because the completions can look plausible and the training-verifier reward looks great; only a different, stricter verifier reveals that never moved. The lab induces exactly this hack.
Reference drift and mode collapse. Even without a specific verifier weakness, hard optimization can push the policy far from the base model into a narrow, degenerate region: it finds one high-reward template and emits minor variations of it for every prompt, losing the diversity that made the group informative. The symptoms are a large and rising KL to the reference policy and a collapsing entropy: the policy has stopped exploring and is exploiting a mode. This can co-occur with any of the above and is the thing the KL leash (beta) exists to restrain.
The monitoring signals
Three families of signal catch these, and the art is watching them together, because any one alone is ambiguous.
KL to the reference policy. GRPO already computes for its penalty, so the KL is logged for free, and it measures how far the policy has drifted from the base model. Healthy training shows KL rising gradually as the policy genuinely improves. Pathological over-optimization shows KL rising while the true reward stalls or falls: the policy is moving a lot to gain nothing real, which is the signature of climbing into the proxy-true gap. The classic over-optimization plot, from the reward-model literature but identical in shape here, is held-out (true) reward rising, peaking, and then declining as KL keeps climbing. The peak is the moment to have stopped.
Entropy. The policy's output entropy measures how much it is still exploring. A slow decline is normal as the policy commits to good strategies. A sharp collapse means mode collapse: the policy has found one template and is exploiting it, which kills the group diversity GRPO's advantage estimate needs and usually precedes or accompanies a hack. Entropy near a floor with high KL is the mode-collapse fingerprint.
Training-verifier versus held-out-verifier divergence. This is the strongest and most specific signal, and it is the one designed to catch verifier exploits that KL and entropy can miss. I score completions with two verifiers: the one used for training (, possibly exploitable) and a held-out variant (, stricter, structurally different, never used to compute a gradient). While the policy is genuinely improving, both rise together. When the policy starts exploiting a weakness specific to the training verifier, keeps rising while stalls or falls, and the gap is a direct, quantitative reward-hacking meter. Because the held-out verifier never enters the loss, the policy is not optimizing against it, so it remains an honest-ish estimate of for as long as its weaknesses differ from the training verifier's.
The held-out verifier is the same idea as a held-out test set, moved from data to grading. Its power comes entirely from being outside the optimization loop: the policy gets no gradient telling it how behaves, so 's blind spots are not attractors the way 's are. But the protection is only as good as the independence of the two verifiers' weaknesses. If and share the same answer-extraction regex and the hack targets that regex, both fire and the gap stays closed while collapses, and I learn nothing. So a held-out verifier must fail differently: score a different aspect (process versus answer), use a different extraction (parse structure versus canonicalize value), or apply a stricter comparison. The lab's held-out verifier canonicalizes and checks only the <answer> tag, while the exploitable training verifier accepts the answer appearing anywhere, so their weaknesses are deliberately disjoint and the gap opens exactly when the hack lands. When you cannot guarantee disjoint weaknesses, rotate several held-out variants and treat any one of them diverging as a flag.
Honeypots and held-out variants as bait
A held-out verifier catches a hack after it starts. A honeypot is more aggressive: a small set of items constructed so that the easiest way to score well under the training verifier is the hack, so that if the policy is hacking, the honeypot lights up loudly and early. For the "answer appears anywhere" exploit, a honeypot item is one whose problem statement happens to contain a number that is not the answer, so a policy that learned to echo salient numbers into its reasoning will regurgitate the wrong one, scoring correct under the lax verifier (the target does appear somewhere if the model enumerates) but wrong under the strict one, widening the gap dramatically on exactly those items. Honeypots are cheap (a handful of adversarially-designed items) and they convert a slow, noisy divergence signal into a fast, loud one, because they are engineered to maximize the gap the instant hacking begins.
When to stop
All of this feeds one decision: when to end the run. "Train until max steps" is a non-answer, because the best checkpoint is often well before the last one, sitting at the peak of the held-out reward before over-optimization set in. My stop doctrine is a small set of criteria, any of which ends the run, plus a rule for which checkpoint to keep.
- Held-out reward peak. Keep the checkpoint at the maximum held-out (true-proxy) reward, not the last one. If held-out reward has declined for consecutive evaluations while training reward keeps rising, stop: you are past the over-optimization peak.
- KL ceiling. If KL to the reference exceeds a threshold I set in advance, stop or raise
beta, because the policy has drifted further than I am willing to trust regardless of what the reward says. - Entropy floor. If entropy falls below a floor, stop: the policy has mode-collapsed and further training only entrenches it.
- Verifier-gap alarm. If (especially on the honeypots) exceeds a threshold, stop and inspect: a verifier exploit is underway and every further step makes the model worse at the real task while the training number lies to you.
- Format-correctness decoupling. If the format reward is saturated and correctness has been flat for a long window, stop: the dense signal has nothing left to teach and the sparse one is not moving, so the run is spending compute to hack format.
The unifying principle is that no single number, least of all the training reward, is trusted to say the model is improving. Improvement is a joint claim across the training reward, the held-out reward, KL, entropy, and the honeypot gap, and the run stops when those signals stop agreeing.
Tooling
The tooling is monitoring infrastructure bolted onto the same GRPO run: a callback that, on a schedule, samples the current policy on a fixed held-out and honeypot set, scores those samples with both the training verifier and the held-out verifier, and logs the reward, the gap, the completion length, and a diversity proxy to MLflow alongside the KL that TRL already logs. None of this touches the loss; it is pure observation. The two artifacts are declarative: a dashboard config that names exactly which metrics to chart and which thresholds draw the alarm lines, and a stop-criteria doc that writes the doctrine above into a checked, versioned specification rather than leaving it in my head.
```admonish gotcha title="The held-out verifier must never enter reward_funcs"
The single most important implementation rule: the held-out verifier is computed in a callback, never passed to GRPOTrainer(reward_funcs=...). The instant it enters reward_funcs, TRL sums it into the training reward, the policy starts optimizing it, and it is no longer held out; its blind spots become attractors and the gap signal goes blind. Keep a hard architectural wall between the functions that produce gradients (in reward_funcs) and the functions that only observe (in the callback). If you find yourself wanting the held-out score to influence training, you do not want a held-out verifier, you want a better training verifier, and you should fix that one instead.
## Lab: induce a hack, then catch it
The lab does the uncomfortable, instructive thing: it trains against a *deliberately exploitable* correctness verifier (one that scores a completion correct if the target answer appears anywhere in the text, a real and common bug), watches the policy discover the exploit, and catches it with a strict held-out verifier and a honeypot set. The artifacts are the two governance files, a `dashboard.yaml` and a `stop_criteria.md`, that turn the monitoring doctrine into checked configuration.
Set up on the same stack.
```bash title="shell"
uv init labs/grpo-hack
cd labs/grpo-hack
uv add "unsloth" "unsloth_zoo" "vllm" "trl" "peft" "bitsandbytes" mlflow sympy
uv add "thesis-suite @ ../../thesis-suite"
uv lock
export MLFLOW_TRACKING_URI=http://127.0.0.1:5000
The two verifiers, one exploitable (for training) and one strict (held out), with deliberately disjoint weaknesses.
"""An exploitable training verifier and a strict held-out verifier.
Their weaknesses are deliberately DISJOINT: the lax one checks whether the
target appears anywhere (regex over the whole completion); the strict one
canonicalizes ONLY the <answer> tag and compares symbolically. The gap between
them is the reward-hacking meter.
"""
import re
from thesis_suite import verify_sda_answer # strict, canonicalizing
ANSWER_RE = re.compile(r"<answer>(.*?)</answer>", re.DOTALL)
def lax_correctness(text: str, target: str) -> float:
"""EXPLOITABLE: target appearing anywhere counts as correct."""
return 1.0 if str(target) in text else 0.0
def strict_correctness(text: str, target: str) -> float:
"""HELD OUT: only the canonicalized <answer> tag counts."""
m = ANSWER_RE.search(text)
if not m:
return 0.0
try:
return 1.0 if verify_sda_answer(text, str(target)) else 0.0
except Exception:
return 0.0
The training reward uses the lax verifier (this is the induced weakness). A monitoring callback samples a fixed held-out and honeypot batch every monitor_every steps, scores with both verifiers, and logs the gap, length, and a diversity proxy.
"""A TrainerCallback that observes hacking signals without touching the loss."""
from collections import Counter
import mlflow
from transformers import TrainerCallback
from vllm import SamplingParams
from verifiers import lax_correctness, strict_correctness
def _diversity(texts) -> float:
"""Cheap entropy proxy: mean fraction of unique tokens per completion."""
fracs = []
for t in texts:
toks = t.split()
fracs.append(len(set(toks)) / max(len(toks), 1))
return sum(fracs) / max(len(fracs), 1)
class HackMonitor(TrainerCallback):
def __init__(self, model, tokenizer, probe_prompts, probe_targets,
monitor_every=25, max_new_tokens=512):
self.model, self.tok = model, tokenizer
self.prompts, self.targets = probe_prompts, probe_targets
self.every, self.max_new = monitor_every, max_new_tokens
def on_step_end(self, args, state, control, **kwargs):
if state.global_step == 0 or state.global_step % self.every:
return
# Sample the CURRENT policy via the in-process vLLM engine.
sampling_params = SamplingParams(temperature=1.0, max_tokens=self.max_new)
outs = self.model.fast_generate(
self.prompts, sampling_params=sampling_params)
texts = [o.outputs[0].text if hasattr(o, "outputs") else str(o)
for o in outs]
lax = [lax_correctness(t, tg) for t, tg in zip(texts, self.targets)]
strict = [strict_correctness(t, tg) for t, tg in zip(texts, self.targets)]
lax_m = sum(lax) / len(lax)
strict_m = sum(strict) / len(strict)
mlflow.log_metrics({
"heldout/lax_reward": lax_m,
"heldout/strict_reward": strict_m,
"heldout/hack_gap": lax_m - strict_m, # the meter
"heldout/mean_len_tokens": sum(len(t.split()) for t in texts) / len(texts),
"heldout/diversity": _diversity(texts),
}, step=state.global_step)
The training script wires the lax reward into training and the monitor into the callback list. It also includes the honeypot probe set (items whose statements contain a distractor number).
"""Train against the exploitable verifier; monitor with the strict held-out one."""
from unsloth import FastLanguageModel # noqa: E402
import mlflow
import torch
from trl import GRPOConfig, GRPOTrainer
from verifiers import lax_correctness
from monitor import HackMonitor
from thesis_suite.data import load_sda_split, load_sda_honeypots
MODEL, LORA_R, GROUP = "unsloth/Qwen3-4B", 16, 8
def lax_reward(prompts, completions, target, **kwargs):
def text(c): return c[-1]["content"] if isinstance(c, list) else c
return [lax_correctness(text(c), tg) for c, tg in zip(completions, target)]
def main() -> None:
model, tokenizer = FastLanguageModel.from_pretrained(
model_name=MODEL, max_seq_length=2048, load_in_4bit=True,
fast_inference=True, max_lora_rank=LORA_R, gpu_memory_utilization=0.16)
model = FastLanguageModel.get_peft_model(
model, r=LORA_R,
target_modules=["q_proj", "k_proj", "v_proj", "o_proj",
"gate_proj", "up_proj", "down_proj"],
lora_alpha=LORA_R, use_gradient_checkpointing="unsloth")
train_ds = load_sda_split("train")
honeypots = load_sda_honeypots() # statements carry distractor numbers
probe_prompts = [h["prompt"] for h in honeypots]
probe_targets = [h["target"] for h in honeypots]
cfg = GRPOConfig(
output_dir="outputs", num_generations=GROUP,
per_device_train_batch_size=GROUP, gradient_accumulation_steps=2,
max_prompt_length=512, max_completion_length=1024,
learning_rate=5e-6, beta=0.02, epsilon=0.2, loss_type="dr_grpo",
temperature=1.0, max_steps=600, logging_steps=1,
report_to="mlflow", run_name="grpo-hack-demo", seed=0)
mlflow.set_experiment("p7-grpo")
with mlflow.start_run(run_name="grpo-hack-demo"):
trainer = GRPOTrainer(
model=model, processing_class=tokenizer,
reward_funcs=[lax_reward], # ONLY the exploitable one trains
args=cfg, train_dataset=train_ds,
callbacks=[HackMonitor(model, tokenizer,
probe_prompts, probe_targets, monitor_every=25)],
)
trainer.train()
model.save_lora("outputs/hacked-adapter")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python train_hack.py
Now the two governance artifacts. The dashboard config names the monitored metrics and the alarm thresholds, so the same chart layout and alarms can be recreated for any run.
# Monitoring dashboard for a GRPO run. Panels map to logged MLflow metrics;
# alarms fire when a metric crosses a threshold. Thresholds are starting
# points, to be calibrated on the baseline machine (record value, date, driver).
experiment: p7-grpo
panels:
- title: "Reward: training vs held-out"
metrics: ["rewards/lax_reward/mean", "heldout/strict_reward"]
note: "Healthy: both rise together. Hack: training rises, held-out stalls/falls."
- title: "Reward-hacking meter"
metrics: ["heldout/hack_gap"]
alarm: {metric: "heldout/hack_gap", op: ">", threshold: 0.15}
- title: "KL to reference"
metrics: ["kl"] # TRL GRPOTrainer logs this as `kl`
alarm: {metric: "kl", op: ">", threshold: 10.0}
- title: "Entropy / diversity proxy"
metrics: ["heldout/diversity"]
alarm: {metric: "heldout/diversity", op: "<", threshold: 0.35}
- title: "Completion length"
metrics: ["heldout/mean_len_tokens", "completions/mean_length"]
note: "Hard drift in either direction with flat correctness = length gaming."
# (No format-vs-correctness panel here: this lab trains with reward_funcs=[lax_reward]
# only, so `rewards/format_reward/mean` is never logged. Add that panel back when the
# run carries a separate format_reward, as the 7.3 run does.)
# Stop criteria for a GRPO run
The run stops when ANY criterion below fires. Keep the checkpoint at the
maximum held-out (strict) reward, not the last checkpoint.
1. Held-out reward peak: strict held-out reward has declined for 3 consecutive
monitor evaluations while training reward kept rising. -> stop, keep the peak.
2. KL ceiling: kl > 10.0 (calibrate per run). -> stop or raise beta.
3. Entropy floor: diversity proxy < 0.35. -> stop; policy has mode-collapsed.
4. Verifier-gap alarm: heldout/hack_gap > 0.15, especially on honeypots.
-> stop and inspect completions; a verifier exploit is underway.
5. Format-correctness decoupling: format reward saturated AND strict correctness
flat for 5 monitor evaluations. -> stop; nothing real is being learned.
No single number, least of all the training reward, is trusted alone.
Improvement is a joint claim across training reward, held-out reward, KL,
entropy, and the honeypot gap. The run stops when they stop agreeing.
```admonish gotcha title="beta=0 removes your KL signal along with your KL leash"
Some strong GRPO recipes set beta=0, relying on the PPO clip alone to limit per-step movement. That can train well, but it has a monitoring cost: with no KL term in the objective, TRL may not log kl, and you lose one of your three over-optimization signals. If you run beta=0, add KL logging back in the monitor callback (compute reference logprobs with the adapter disabled, as in chapter 7.1) so the KL panel is not silently empty. Losing the leash is a choice; losing the gauge should not be.
### What you should see
The artifacts are `dashboard.yaml` and `stop_criteria.md`, the governance files, plus the (deliberately compromised) `outputs/hacked-adapter/`. The story is in the MLflow charts the dashboard describes. Early on, `rewards/lax_reward/mean` and `heldout/strict_reward` rise together, because at first the only way to make the target appear anywhere is to actually answer correctly. Then, somewhere in the run, they part company: the training (lax) reward keeps climbing toward 1.0 while the strict held-out reward stalls or *falls*, and `heldout/hack_gap` opens up and crosses its 0.15 alarm line. That divergence is the policy discovering it can score under the lax verifier by echoing the target number into its `<think>` block (or enumerating candidates) without committing a correct `<answer>`, and it is loudest on the honeypots, whose distractor numbers make the wrong-but-present answers score lax-correct and strict-wrong. Concurrently you should see the fingerprints: KL to the reference rising as the policy moves into the exploit region, and the diversity proxy sagging as completions converge on the same number-echoing template. If you dump a few honeypot completions at the end, you will read the hack in plain text, well-formed-looking reasoning that name-drops the target and never actually derives it. The lesson the run burns in is that the *training reward looked great the whole time*: without the held-out verifier and the honeypots, the lax curve climbing to 1.0 would have read as triumph. Record the step at which the gap alarm fired, the KL and diversity at that step, and the peak strict-reward checkpoint, all with date and driver (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver). Then, having seen it, fix the verifier (score only the `<answer>` tag, canonicalized, as chapter 7.3 does) and rerun to confirm the gap stays shut, which is the whole point: you induce the hack once, in a lab, so you recognize it instantly when it shows up uninvited in a real run.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
A[Policy] -->|samples| B[Completions]
B --> C[Training verifier<br/>lax, exploitable]
B --> D[Held-out verifier<br/>strict, observe only]
C -->|gradient| A
D -->|no gradient| E[hack_gap = lax - strict]
E -->|alarm| F[Stop + inspect]
Pair this with [RLHF] Lambert on over-optimization and reward-model hacking; the held-out-reward-peaks-then-declines-as-KL-rises curve is the same phenomenon whether the proxy is a learned reward model or a programmatic verifier, and Lambert's treatment of the KL-reward frontier is the theoretical backbone of the stop doctrine here. Read it as the general case of which this chapter's verifier exploit is one sharp, fully-reproducible instance.
"I trained a model to cheat on purpose, so I'd recognize it when it happened by accident." Goodhart's law has a precise operational form in reinforcement learning: the moment your eval becomes your reward, it starts to become a worse eval, because the policy is now an adversary hunting your verifier's blind spots. The post is the lab as a story: wire up a correctness check with one common, innocent-looking bug (it counts the answer as correct if it appears anywhere in the text), turn a reasoning model loose on it, and watch. For a while the reward climbs because the honest way to make the answer appear is to compute it. Then the policy finds the shortcut, starts echoing the target number into its scratch work without ever deriving it, and the training reward sails to a perfect score while the model quietly gets worse at the actual task. The kicker is what saves you: a second verifier you never train against, a handful of booby-trapped test items, and the discipline to believe the divergence between two numbers over the one number that looks like winning.
Data and curriculum for RLVR
By now the machinery is built. Chapter 7.2 got a GRPO job running inside the 16GB budget on the baseline machine, and chapter 7.3 wired the Part III verifier scorers in as reward functions. What I have not done yet is decide what to train on. That sounds like a footnote and it is not. In supervised fine-tuning the data is the whole ballgame, but the failure mode is obvious: bad labels, bad model. In reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards the data failure modes are quieter and nastier, because a badly chosen prompt does not produce a wrong gradient, it produces no gradient at all, and a run that is silently learning nothing looks almost exactly like a run that is learning slowly. This chapter is about choosing the prompt set so that the gradient signal is actually there, so that it stays there as the policy improves, and so that not one item of it has leaked from the eval suite I am going to measure the delta against.
The output is a concrete artifact on disk: a training prompt set with a provenance manifest that a committee member could audit line by line. But first I need to explain why the obvious approach (grab a big math dataset and point the trainer at it) wastes most of a single GPU's very limited time.
Theory
Why difficulty is the load-bearing variable in RLVR
Recall the shape of the GRPO update from chapter 7.2. For a single prompt , the policy generates a group of completions, each verifier-scored to a reward . The group-relative advantage of completion is the reward centered and scaled by the group's own statistics:
Now stare at the numerator. If every completion in the group gets the same reward, then for all , every advantage is zero, and the policy-gradient contribution of that prompt for that step is exactly zero. With a binary correctness reward this happens whenever the prompt is either solved by every rollout or by none of them. The prompt cost you forward generations, which on a 16GB card is the single most expensive thing the loop does, and it bought you nothing.
So the quantity that actually matters is not "is this a good math problem" but "under the current policy, does this prompt produce disagreement among rollouts". Let be the model's per-sample solve probability on prompt . The rewards in a group are Bernoulli draws, and the expected within-group reward variance, which is what feeds the advantage magnitude, is
That is the whole story of difficulty filtering. It is zero at and and maximized at . A prompt the model already solves every time () is as useless for training as one it never solves (), and for the identical reason: no disagreement, no signal. The informative prompts live in a band around the middle.
The probability that a group of binary rewards is degenerate (all same, hence zero advantage) is . The probability a prompt contributes any gradient at all is . For this is above across roughly (it is at the band edges and peaks at near ), and it falls off a cliff outside that: at it is only about , and at about . In plain terms, with a group size of 8, a prompt the model solves 95% of the time contributes a usable gradient on barely a third of the steps it appears in. That is the arithmetic justification for a solve-rate band of roughly : it is not a taste, it is where is large. Larger widens the usable band (more rollouts, more chances for disagreement) at linear cost in generation time, which is exactly the trade chapter 7.7 ablates.
Solve-rate bands are a measurement, and they drift
Here is the subtlety that separates a curriculum from a static filter. The solve probability is a property of the prompt and the current policy together. At the start of a run I estimate against the baseline policy . But the entire point of training is to raise . A prompt that sits at against the baseline, comfortably in band, will drift toward as the model learns it, and at that point it has left the band and gone quiet. This is the RLVR version of a curriculum: not a fixed ordering I impose, but a moving band the policy walks through as it improves.
There are two honest ways to handle the drift, and I will build for both:
The static-band approach estimates once against , keeps everything in , and accepts that late in training some prompts will have gone quiet. It is simple, fully reproducible, and its provenance is a single dated measurement. For a one-GPU thesis run of a few hundred steps this is usually enough, because the policy does not move far enough to empty the band.
The online-rebanding approach periodically re-estimates against the current checkpoint (every few hundred steps, using the rollouts the trainer is already generating so it costs nothing extra) and drops prompts that have crossed , optionally promoting harder prompts from a reserve pool. It keeps the signal dense for longer but its provenance is a schedule of measurements, not one, and it introduces a moving part that chapter 7.7 will want to hold fixed when ablating other things. I default to the static band and treat online rebanding as an ablation, not the baseline.
Curriculum ordering: does presentation order matter
Given a set of in-band prompts, does the order I feed them in matter? In SFT, curriculum ordering (easy-to-hard) has a mixed empirical record. In RLVR the case is a bit cleaner because of equation (5.2): early in training the model is weak, so the mass of prompts that sit near for the weak model are the objectively easier ones. Feeding easy-to-hard is really just feeding "whatever is currently in band first," which is the same online-rebanding idea seen from the ordering side rather than the filtering side.
For a fixed static band I mostly shuffle, because with group-relative advantages the per-prompt signal does not depend on what came before it in the way a value-function bootstrap would. The one ordering choice I do make deliberately is to avoid long runs of near-identical prompts in a single gradient-accumulation window, because that correlates the advantages inside a batch and inflates the effective step size on one narrow skill. A shuffle with a fixed seed handles that for free and keeps the run reproducible.
Prompt-set size versus epochs
RLVR blurs the SFT notion of an epoch. In SFT, a second epoch shows the model the exact same target tokens again, and overfitting is memorization of those targets. In RLVR, a second pass over a prompt generates fresh rollouts and scores them anew, so the model never sees a fixed target to memorize. That makes revisiting prompts far safer than an SFT epoch, but it is not free of risk: the risk is reward hacking and narrow specialization (chapter 7.4's whole subject). A tiny prompt set drilled for many passes will find whatever degenerate strategy maximizes the verifier on those specific items, and it will generalize poorly.
The quantity that a step budget actually fixes is total prompt-exposures. With unique in-band prompts, passes, group size , and a per-step prompt count (the number of distinct prompts per optimizer step), the number of optimizer steps is
On the baseline machine the wall-clock cost is dominated by those generations, so for a fixed time budget the product is essentially fixed and the only real decision is how to split it. My rule of thumb, which chapter 7.7 turns into an actual ablation rather than a rule of thumb, is: prefer larger and close to 1 until diversity stops helping, because breadth is the cheap insurance against reward hacking, and only spend extra passes once the prompt set is large enough that the model is not memorizing verifier quirks. A few hundred to a couple thousand unique in-band prompts with one to three passes is the region a single-GPU run lives in; I will not pretend to a measured optimum I have not run.
Dedup against the eval suite is not optional
This is the part a committee will actually try to break. In chapter 7.6 I am going to claim a reasoning delta: metric moved by from to on the frozen thesis task suite v1.0 (chapter 3.9). That claim is worth exactly nothing if any training prompt overlaps the eval suite, because then I trained on the test and the "delta" is partly just memorized eval items leaking back. The entire causal story of the thesis (chapter 4.5's control runs exist to protect it) collapses at the first contaminated prompt.
So dedup against the eval suite is a hard gate, and I reuse the contamination machinery from chapter 3.8 rather than inventing a weaker one here. The layers, from cheapest to most thorough:
- Exact-match dedup on the raw prompt string, after Unicode normalization and whitespace collapse. Catches copy-paste duplicates.
- Normalized-match dedup after stripping formatting, lowercasing, and canonicalizing numbers and LaTeX, so that "What is 2+2?" and "what is " collide. Catches trivially reskinned items.
- N-gram Jaccard overlap: flag any training prompt whose set of character or token n-grams has Jaccard similarity above a threshold with any eval prompt. Catches paraphrase and partial reuse.
- Embedding cosine similarity: embed every training and eval prompt, flag any training prompt within a cosine threshold of any eval prompt. Catches semantic near-duplicates that share no n-grams.
Every flagged prompt is removed, and the counts removed at each layer go into the provenance manifest, because "we ran four dedup layers and removed this many at each" is a sentence that survives a committee, and "we deduped" is not.
Tooling
The tool this chapter builds is a prompt-set builder that turns a candidate source dataset into a training prompt set plus a provenance manifest, running the difficulty estimation against the same served substrate the rest of the loop uses (the chapter 2.6 inference baseline) and the same dedup module the eval side uses (chapter 3.8). It is deliberately boring: a filter is only trustworthy if you can read the whole thing.
Set up the project with uv, in the training environment, never bare pip:
uv init curriculum
cd curriculum
uv add "datasets>=2.19" "openai>=1.30" "numpy>=1.26" "scikit-learn>=1.4" \
"sentence-transformers>=3.0" "pydantic>=2.7"
The openai client is there only because the chapter 2.6 vLLM serving substrate speaks the OpenAI API, so difficulty estimation talks to the local server exactly the way an eval does. Nothing here reaches the network except the one pinned dataset download, and that download records its revision hash.
The provenance manifest as a first-class object
The manifest is not a log I write at the end. It is a typed object I fill in as I go, so that it is impossible to ship a prompt set whose provenance is incomplete. That is the discipline the whole book runs on (the hardware baseline chapter made the same argument for measured numbers): a value comes stamped or it comes marked as not yet measured, and there is no third category.
"""Typed provenance manifest for a training prompt set.
Every field here is something a committee could ask about. If a field is
empty at write time, the builder refuses to save. Provenance is a gate,
not a garnish.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from pydantic import BaseModel, Field
class SourceSpec(BaseModel):
name: str # e.g. "open-r1/OpenMathReasoning"
revision: str # exact dataset revision / commit hash
split: str
license: str
n_raw: int # items before any filtering
class DifficultySpec(BaseModel):
policy_model: str # the M0 served on the 2.6 substrate
policy_checkpoint: str # path or hash of the served weights
served_endpoint: str # e.g. "http://localhost:8000/v1"
k_rollouts: int
temperature: float
max_tokens: int
band_lo: float
band_hi: float
# measured on the baseline machine -- record value, date, driver
driver: str = "record: e.g. 570-open"
measured_at: str = "record ISO date"
class DedupSpec(BaseModel):
eval_suite: str # e.g. "thesis-suite v1.0 (chapter 3.9)"
eval_suite_revision: str
removed_exact: int
removed_normalized: int
removed_ngram: int
removed_embedding: int
ngram_jaccard_threshold: float
embedding_cosine_threshold: float
class Manifest(BaseModel):
prompt_set_name: str
built_at: str = Field(default_factory=lambda: datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat())
machine: str = "MSI Aegis R2 (Core Ultra 9 285, RTX 5080 16GB, Ubuntu 24.04)"
source: SourceSpec
difficulty: DifficultySpec
dedup: DedupSpec
n_final: int
seed: int
def gate(self) -> None:
"""Refuse to represent an incomplete provenance record."""
if self.n_final <= 0:
raise ValueError("empty prompt set after filtering; refuse to save")
if "record" in self.difficulty.measured_at:
raise ValueError("difficulty measurement date not stamped")
Difficulty estimation against the served baseline
Difficulty estimation is just a small eval: for each candidate prompt, ask the local server for completions, verifier-score each with the same thesis-suite verifier the trainer's reward is built on (verify_correct imported straight from thesis_suite, the chapter 3.9 package, so the definition of "solved" is identical on both sides), and record the empirical solve rate .
"""Estimate per-prompt solve rate against the served baseline policy.
Talks to the 2.6 vLLM substrate over the OpenAI chat API (so the server
applies the model's chat template). The verifier is imported from the
thesis suite so 'solved' means exactly what it means to the trainer --
no second definition to drift.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
from openai import OpenAI
# The verifier from the thesis suite (chapter 3.9), the same 'solved'
# definition the 7.3 reward core is built on.
from thesis_suite import verify_correct # (prompt, response, answer) -> bool
def solve_rate(
client: OpenAI,
model: str,
prompt: str,
gold: str,
k: int,
temperature: float,
max_tokens: int,
seed: int,
) -> float:
"""Empirical per-sample solve probability p_hat from k rollouts."""
# Chat endpoint, not the legacy completions one: the served M0 is an
# instruction-tuned model, so the server must apply its chat template.
resp = client.chat.completions.create(
model=model,
messages=[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
n=k,
temperature=temperature,
max_tokens=max_tokens,
seed=seed,
)
rewards = [verify_correct(prompt, c.message.content, gold) for c in resp.choices]
return float(np.mean(rewards))
def in_band(p_hat: float, lo: float, hi: float) -> bool:
return lo <= p_hat <= hi
A note on cost, because it is a single GPU: difficulty estimation is generations, which for a large candidate set can rival the training run itself. Two mitigations keep it honest. First, estimate on a shorter max_tokens budget than training uses, since you only need a solve/no-solve verdict, not a polished chain; this is a measured trade (record on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver) but it is usually safe. Second, estimate with a modest (say 4 to 8): is a noisy estimate of , and a prompt that lands at from 4 rollouts might really be , so I keep the band edges loose rather than surgical and let a few borderline prompts through rather than paying for a precise I do not need.
Dedup, reusing the 3.8 module
I do not reimplement contamination checks here. I import them, because the eval side and the training side must use the identical definition of "overlap" or the gate leaks.
"""Dedup a candidate prompt set against the frozen eval suite.
Reuses the chapter 3.8 contamination module so 'overlap' is defined
once. Returns the surviving prompts and per-layer removal counts for
the provenance manifest.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
# All four checks come from the 3.8 module; do not redefine them here.
from contamination import (
normalize_text,
exact_duplicate_ids,
ngram_jaccard_overlap, # returns ids over a Jaccard threshold
embedding_overlap, # returns ids over a cosine threshold
)
@dataclass
class DedupResult:
survivors: list[dict]
removed_exact: int
removed_normalized: int
removed_ngram: int
removed_embedding: int
def dedup_against_eval(
candidates: list[dict],
eval_prompts: list[str],
ngram_threshold: float = 0.6,
cosine_threshold: float = 0.85,
) -> DedupResult:
eval_norm = {normalize_text(p) for p in eval_prompts}
survivors, r_exact, r_norm = [], 0, 0
for item in candidates:
norm = normalize_text(item["prompt"])
if item["prompt"] in eval_prompts: # raw exact
r_exact += 1
continue
if norm in eval_norm: # normalized exact
r_norm += 1
continue
survivors.append(item)
ngram_hits = ngram_jaccard_overlap(
[s["prompt"] for s in survivors], eval_prompts, threshold=ngram_threshold
)
survivors2 = [s for i, s in enumerate(survivors) if i not in ngram_hits]
emb_hits = embedding_overlap(
[s["prompt"] for s in survivors2], eval_prompts, threshold=cosine_threshold
)
survivors3 = [s for i, s in enumerate(survivors2) if i not in emb_hits]
return DedupResult(
survivors=survivors3,
removed_exact=r_exact,
removed_normalized=r_norm,
removed_ngram=len(ngram_hits),
removed_embedding=len(emb_hits),
)
Lab: build the training prompt set with documented provenance
Now the pieces come together into one script that a committee could run and audit. It downloads a pinned candidate dataset, estimates difficulty against the served baseline, bands it, dedups against the frozen eval suite, and writes two files: the prompt set and its manifest. The gate refuses to write if provenance is incomplete.
"""Build a provenance-stamped RLVR training prompt set.
Pipeline:
1. load a pinned candidate source dataset
2. estimate solve rate vs the served baseline (2.6 substrate)
3. keep prompts inside the solve-rate band
4. dedup against the frozen eval suite (3.8 module, 3.9 suite)
5. write prompt set + provenance manifest (gated)
No measured throughput/time numbers are invented here; where a real
measurement belongs it is stamped:
(measured on the baseline machine -- record value, date, driver)
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from pathlib import Path
from datasets import load_dataset
from openai import OpenAI
from difficulty import solve_rate, in_band
from dedup import dedup_against_eval
from provenance import Manifest, SourceSpec, DifficultySpec, DedupSpec
# ---- configuration (design choices, each justified in the Theory section) ----
SOURCE_NAME = "open-r1/OpenMathReasoning" # example; swap for your source
SOURCE_REVISION = "PIN_ME_to_a_commit_hash" # exact revision, not "main"
SOURCE_SPLIT = "train"
SOURCE_LICENSE = "record from the dataset card"
POLICY_MODEL = "unsloth/Qwen3-4B" # the M0 you serve on 2.6
SERVED_ENDPOINT = "http://localhost:8000/v1"
K_ROLLOUTS = 6
TEMPERATURE = 0.8
MAX_TOKENS = 512 # short: verdict, not polish
BAND_LO, BAND_HI = 0.2, 0.8
SEED = 0
EVAL_SUITE_PATH = "../thesis_suite_v1.jsonl" # frozen 3.9 suite
EVAL_SUITE_REV = "thesis-suite v1.0"
OUT_DIR = Path("out")
def load_eval_prompts(path: str) -> list[str]:
return [json.loads(l)["prompt"] for l in Path(path).read_text().splitlines() if l.strip()]
def main() -> None:
OUT_DIR.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
client = OpenAI(base_url=SERVED_ENDPOINT, api_key="not-needed-for-local-vllm")
ds = load_dataset(SOURCE_NAME, revision=SOURCE_REVISION, split=SOURCE_SPLIT)
n_raw = len(ds)
# ---- difficulty banding against the served baseline ----
banded: list[dict] = []
for row in ds:
prompt, gold = row["problem"], row["answer"]
p_hat = solve_rate(
client, POLICY_MODEL, prompt, gold,
k=K_ROLLOUTS, temperature=TEMPERATURE, max_tokens=MAX_TOKENS, seed=SEED,
)
if in_band(p_hat, BAND_LO, BAND_HI):
banded.append({"prompt": prompt, "gold": gold, "p_hat": p_hat})
# ---- dedup against the frozen eval suite ----
eval_prompts = load_eval_prompts(EVAL_SUITE_PATH)
dd = dedup_against_eval(banded, eval_prompts)
final = dd.survivors
# ---- provenance (gated) ----
manifest = Manifest(
prompt_set_name="sda_train_prompts.v1",
source=SourceSpec(
name=SOURCE_NAME, revision=SOURCE_REVISION, split=SOURCE_SPLIT,
license=SOURCE_LICENSE, n_raw=n_raw,
),
difficulty=DifficultySpec(
policy_model=POLICY_MODEL,
policy_checkpoint="record: served weights hash",
served_endpoint=SERVED_ENDPOINT,
k_rollouts=K_ROLLOUTS, temperature=TEMPERATURE, max_tokens=MAX_TOKENS,
band_lo=BAND_LO, band_hi=BAND_HI,
driver="record: e.g. 570-open",
measured_at="record: ISO date of this run", # gate() will refuse if left
),
dedup=DedupSpec(
eval_suite="thesis-suite v1.0 (chapter 3.9)",
eval_suite_revision=EVAL_SUITE_REV,
removed_exact=dd.removed_exact,
removed_normalized=dd.removed_normalized,
removed_ngram=dd.removed_ngram,
removed_embedding=dd.removed_embedding,
ngram_jaccard_threshold=0.6,
embedding_cosine_threshold=0.85,
),
n_final=len(final),
seed=SEED,
)
manifest.gate() # raises unless provenance is complete and non-empty
# ---- write artifacts ----
with (OUT_DIR / "sda_train_prompts.v1.jsonl").open("w") as f:
for item in final:
f.write(json.dumps(item) + "\n")
(OUT_DIR / "provenance.json").write_text(manifest.model_dump_json(indent=2))
print(f"raw={n_raw} in_band={len(banded)} final={len(final)}")
print(f"removed: exact={dd.removed_exact} norm={dd.removed_normalized} "
f"ngram={dd.removed_ngram} emb={dd.removed_embedding}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it with the baseline served on the 2.6 substrate:
# in one terminal: serve M0 exactly as chapter 2.6 specifies
# vllm serve unsloth/Qwen3-4B --port 8000 ...
uv run python build_prompt_set.py
What you should see
Two files under curriculum/out/. The first, sda_train_prompts.v1.jsonl, is the training prompt set: every line a prompt, its gold answer, and the measured that put it in band, with nothing outside and nothing that survived the dedup gate against the eval suite. The second, provenance.json, is the manifest, and it is the artifact that actually matters for the thesis. It names the source dataset and its exact revision, records the served policy and endpoint that difficulty was measured against, states the band edges and rollout budget, and reports how many candidate prompts each of the four dedup layers removed. The console line will read something like raw=N in_band=M final=L with M < N (most raw prompts fall outside the band, which is the point) and L <= M (dedup only ever removes). If final=0, the gate throws and nothing is written, which is the builder refusing to hand you a prompt set it cannot stand behind.
The honest number to watch is the ratio in_band / raw. If it is very small, your candidate source is mostly too easy or too hard for and you are paying a lot of generation time to keep a little data; if it is close to 1, either your source is already difficulty-calibrated or your band is too loose. Either way it is a measurement (record on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver), and it tells you something real about the match between your data and your model before you have spent a single training step.
The most common way this gate silently leaks is estimating difficulty against a different checkpoint than the one chapter 7.6 will call . If you difficulty-filter against an instruct model but then start GRPO from a slightly different base, your band is measured against the wrong policy and the "in-band" guarantee is fiction. Pin one checkpoint as , serve exactly that for difficulty estimation, and start training from exactly that. The policy_checkpoint hash in the manifest exists so this mismatch is auditable rather than invisible.
There is a genuinely counterintuitive post here: in reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards, the problems your model already solves are worthless, and so are the problems it can never solve. All the learning happens in the narrow band where it succeeds maybe a third to two-thirds of the time, because that is the only place the rollouts disagree, and disagreement is the whole signal. It is the pedagogy of the zone of proximal development, except you can measure the zone with one number, , and watch it move as the student gets better. The hook: a good curriculum is not the hardest problems or the easiest, it is the ones that are currently a coin-flip, and that band walks up the difficulty ladder on its own as the model climbs.
Measuring the reasoning delta
The training run finished. I have a baseline policy and a trained policy , and somewhere between them is the thing the whole thesis is named after: the reasoning delta, the amount by which training on verifiable rewards moved a real measure of reasoning. This chapter is where I earn the word "delta." It would be trivial to run both models on the eval suite, subtract two accuracy numbers, and put an arrow on a slide. It would also be indefensible, because two accuracy numbers with no uncertainty, no pairing, and no effect size are not evidence, they are decoration. A thesis committee will ask three questions in this order: is the difference real, how big is it, and what exactly does it claim. This chapter answers all three, and it does so by reusing the evalstats module built in chapter 3.7 rather than inventing statistics on the spot.
The output is a delta-report template: an analysis artifact that consumes the per-item, per-sample eval logs from a pre run and a post run and emits a report a committee can read. I cannot fill it with real numbers here because there is no GPU in this authoring environment, so every measured slot is stamped (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver) and the chapter delivers the code and templates that would consume the real numbers.
Theory
The pre/post design and why matching is everything
The design is a within-subjects pre/post comparison. The "subjects" are the items of the frozen thesis task suite v1.0 (chapter 3.9), and each item is measured twice: once under , once under . This is the cleanest design available on one GPU, and its power comes entirely from a discipline that is easy to state and easy to violate: everything except the model must be held identical between the pre and post measurements.
Identical means the same item set (the frozen suite, same revision, no items added or dropped), the same sampling budget (same number of samples per item), the same decoding parameters (temperature, top-p, max tokens), and the same seeds wherever the serving stack makes seeds reproducible. The reason matching matters so much is not fussiness. It is that the metrics I care about are functions of the sampling budget, and if the budget differs between pre and post then a "delta" partly measures the budget change, not the model. Pass@k in particular is monotonic in k, so measuring at and at would manufacture a delta out of thin air. The matched budget is what makes the subtraction meaningful.
There is a causal-inference reading of this that chapter 4.5 develops in full: training is a -operation on the policy, the pre/post pair is an interrupted time series with a single intervention, and the shared item set is what lets me difference out the item-level confounder (some problems are just harder than others). The control runs of chapter 4.5, especially the random-reward placebo, exist to rule out the alternative explanation that any training at all, regardless of the reward signal, would move the metric. This chapter measures the delta; chapter 4.5 hardens the claim that the delta is caused by the verifiable reward.
Paired statistics on shared items
Because every item is measured under both models, the natural unit of analysis is the per-item difference, not the two group means. Let and be the per-item scores (for a binary metric, the item's mean-of- accuracy) for models and on item , over items. The paired difference is , and the estimand is its mean:
The mean paired difference equals the difference of means, so pairing does not change the point estimate. What it changes, dramatically, is the uncertainty. Here is why, and it is the single most important equation in the chapter.
The variance of the mean paired difference is where are the item-score variances under each model and is the correlation between and across items. Compare this to the unpaired (two-sample) variance, which drops the term entirely: Item difficulty is strongly shared between the two models: a problem that is hard for is usually hard for , so is large and positive, often or higher for models that differ only by a fine-tune. Plug and into (6.2) and the paired variance is , which is one fifth of the unpaired . That factor of five in variance is a factor of in the width of the confidence interval, bought for free by the design choice to reuse the same items. On one GPU, where is bounded by how many eval generations you can afford, that free variance reduction is the difference between a detectable delta and a shrug.
Equation (6.2) is also the argument for the whole enterprise: I do not detect small reasoning deltas by running more items than a datacenter can, I detect them by pairing on shared items so the item-difficulty variance cancels. The evalstats module from chapter 3.7 already implements the paired estimators, so the analysis code imports them rather than rederiving them.
Confidence intervals: the paired bootstrap
I do not trust a normal-theory interval for a bounded, discrete, possibly skewed metric like accuracy, so the confidence interval comes from a bootstrap, exactly the one built in chapter 3.7. The subtlety for a pre/post comparison is that the bootstrap must resample the pairs, not the two arms independently, or it destroys the correlation that equation (6.2) says is doing all the work.
There is a second layer of variance that a careful committee will ask about: each item's score is itself an average over noisy rollouts, so the total uncertainty has a between-item component and a within-item (sampling) component. The clean way to capture both is a cluster bootstrap that resamples items with replacement and, within each resampled item, resamples its rollouts with replacement. That propagates both sources of noise into the interval. For the headline metric I report the paired item-level bootstrap CI, and I note the cluster bootstrap as the more conservative version; chapter 3.7's module exposes both.
Significance tests that do not assume normality
A confidence interval that excludes zero is already a significance statement, but committees like a -value next to it, and the honest one for paired data is a permutation test, again from chapter 3.7. Under the null hypothesis that training had no effect, the sign of each paired difference is exchangeable: flipping which model is "pre" and which is "post" should not matter. So I build the null distribution of by randomly flipping the signs of the many times and computing each time, and the two-sided -value is the fraction of sign-flipped at least as extreme as the observed one. This assumes nothing about the shape of the score distribution and it respects the pairing.
For a strictly binary framing (did the item go from wrong to right or right to wrong) the discrete analogue is McNemar's test on the discordant pairs, and I report it when the metric is naturally item-level pass/fail rather than a mean-of- rate. The two agree in spirit; the permutation test is more general because it handles continuous per-item scores.
Effect sizes a committee accepts
A -value tells you the delta is not zero. It does not tell you the delta is worth caring about, and with enough items even a trivially small delta becomes "significant." So the report leads with effect sizes, not -values.
The first effect size is just the raw delta in the metric's own units, with its CI: " solved more of the suite per attempt than , 95% CI " (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver). Units matter and this one has them: it is in probability-of-success-per-sample, which is the thing anyone actually cares about.
The second is a standardized effect size, for comparison across metrics and against the literature. For paired data the natural one is
Cohen's for paired differences: the mean difference in units of the standard deviation of the differences. It answers "how large is the shift relative to how much items disagree about the shift." I report with a bootstrap CI, and I resist the urge to launder it into the unpaired Cohen's , because and the between-groups are different quantities and conflating them is a classic way to overstate an effect.
For a binary item-level outcome (each item either flips wrong-to-right, right-to-wrong, or stays), the discordant-pair effect size is transparent. Let be the count of items that went wrong-to-right and the count that went right-to-wrong, out of . Then which is the net flip rate, and McNemar's statistic is on one degree of freedom. The quantity is the number of items that changed at all, and it is a sanity number worth reporting on its own: if is tiny, the model barely changed its item-level verdicts and any is riding on a handful of items, which is exactly the situation where the bootstrap CI will be honest and wide. Reporting and separately also exposes a failure the net rate hides: a run that fixes 20 items and breaks 18 has and looks like mild progress, but it is really churning, and says so out loud.
Pass@k shifts versus mean shifts, and what each one claims
This is the distinction that separates a defensible thesis claim from an inflated one, and it is subtle enough that it gets its own section.
There are two natural metrics on a set of samples per item. The mean accuracy (equivalently pass@1 in expectation) is the probability that a single sample is correct. Pass@k is the probability that at least one of samples is correct. The unbiased estimator of pass@k from samples with correct, from the HumanEval line of work, is
Now the important part. A training run can move these two metrics in different directions, and each direction makes a different scientific claim:
If mean accuracy (pass@1) rises but pass@k at large k is flat, the model has become more reliable at problems it could already sometimes solve. It concentrated probability mass onto correct solutions it was already capable of sampling. This is real and valuable, but the honest claim is "sharpening," not "the model can now solve problems it could not before." The set of solvable problems (the support at large k) did not grow.
If pass@k at large k rises, the model can now solve problems that were outside its reach at any sampling budget before. That is the stronger claim, capability expansion, and it is the one people usually mean by "the model got smarter." It is also the harder one to demonstrate and the one RLVR is most often accused of not delivering, since a live debate holds that RL on verifiable rewards mostly sharpens the base model's existing distribution rather than expanding it.
The committee-grade move is to report both, with matched budgets and the unbiased estimator (6.6), and to state which claim the data supports rather than letting a pass@1 gain masquerade as capability expansion. If pass@1 is up and pass@k is flat, I say "sharpening" and I am right. If both are up, I say "expansion" and I have the pass@k curve to back it. Either way the report shows the pass@k-versus-k curves for and on the same axes, because the shape of the gap as grows is the whole argument.
For the SDA verifiable-reasoning worked example, this chapter is where the thread finally produces a number. The frozen SDA items in thesis-suite v1.0 are evaluated under (the served baseline) and under (the GRPO-trained checkpoint from the 7.3 run), at a matched sampling budget of samples per item. The primary estimand is the mean paired difference in per-sample solve rate on the SDA items, with a paired-bootstrap 95% CI and a sign-flip permutation -value, and the secondary estimand is the pass@k curve for both models so the thread can say honestly whether training sharpened the SDA distribution or expanded it. Every one of those numbers is measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver; this chapter delivers the analysis that will consume them, and chapter 7.8 runs the loop that produces them for real. The thread's whole point was to carry one verifiable problem from first eval to trained model, and equation (6.1) applied to the SDA items is that carry made quantitative.
Tooling
The tool is a delta-report generator. It reads two eval-log files (the per-item, per-sample scores that the chapter 3.7 eval harness already emits for a pre run and a post run), aligns them on item id, and produces a report object plus a rendered markdown report plus a pass@k figure. It imports every statistic from evalstats; the generator itself only aligns, calls, and formats.
Set it up in the training or analysis environment with uv:
uv init analysis
cd analysis
uv add "numpy>=1.26" "scipy>=1.13" "matplotlib>=3.8" "pydantic>=2.7"
uv add --editable ../evalstats # the chapter 3.7 module, reused not rebuilt
The input contract
Both eval runs write the same shape: one record per item, carrying the item id and the list of per-sample binary scores. Matching budgets means both files have the same item ids and the same length- score lists.
"""Input contract for a pre/post delta analysis.
An eval log is a list of ItemResult, one per suite item. The pre and
post logs MUST share item ids and MUST have equal samples-per-item n,
or the analysis refuses to run -- matched budgets are not optional.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from pydantic import BaseModel
class ItemResult(BaseModel):
item_id: str
scores: list[float] # per-sample binary correctness, length n
class EvalLog(BaseModel):
model_name: str
suite: str # e.g. "thesis-suite v1.0"
suite_revision: str
n_samples: int # samples per item; must match across pre/post
temperature: float
max_tokens: int
# measured on the baseline machine -- record value, date, driver
driver: str
measured_at: str
items: list[ItemResult]
The delta report itself
"""Generate a committee-grade pre/post delta report.
Consumes two EvalLog files (pre = M0, post = M1) and emits:
- delta_report.json (machine-readable, every estimate + CI)
- delta_report.md (the template, human-readable)
- passk_curve.png (pass@k vs k for both models, matched budget)
All statistics come from evalstats (chapter 3.7). This file aligns,
calls, and formats -- it does not define a single estimator itself.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from math import comb
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
from schema import EvalLog
# chapter 3.7 machinery, imported verbatim:
from evalstats import (
paired_bootstrap_ci, # (d_i, n_boot, alpha) -> (lo, hi)
sign_flip_permutation, # (d_i, n_perm) -> two-sided p-value
cohens_dz, # (d_i) -> standardized paired effect
mcnemar, # (b, c) -> (chi2, p)
)
def pass_at_k(scores: list[float], k: int) -> float:
"""Unbiased pass@k from n samples with c correct (eq. 6.6)."""
n = len(scores)
c = int(round(sum(scores)))
if n - c < k:
return 1.0
return 1.0 - comb(n - c, k) / comb(n, k)
def align(pre: EvalLog, post: EvalLog) -> list[str]:
"""Return shared item ids; enforce matched budgets."""
if pre.n_samples != post.n_samples:
raise ValueError(
f"budget mismatch: pre n={pre.n_samples}, post n={post.n_samples}; "
"matched sampling budgets are required (see eq. 6.6 monotonicity)"
)
pre_ids = {it.item_id for it in pre.items}
post_ids = {it.item_id for it in post.items}
shared = sorted(pre_ids & post_ids)
if len(shared) != len(pre_ids) or len(shared) != len(post_ids):
raise ValueError("item sets differ; pre/post must share the frozen suite")
return shared
def build(pre: EvalLog, post: EvalLog, n_boot: int = 10_000, n_perm: int = 10_000):
shared = align(pre, post)
pre_by = {it.item_id: it for it in pre.items}
post_by = {it.item_id: it for it in post.items}
# per-item mean-of-n accuracy under each model
s0 = np.array([float(np.mean(pre_by[i].scores)) for i in shared])
s1 = np.array([float(np.mean(post_by[i].scores)) for i in shared])
d = s1 - s0 # eq. 6.1
lo, hi = paired_bootstrap_ci(d, n_boot=n_boot, alpha=0.05)
p_perm = sign_flip_permutation(d, n_perm=n_perm)
dz = cohens_dz(d) # eq. 6.4
# item-level discordant pairs on the majority verdict (eq. 6.5)
v0 = (s0 >= 0.5).astype(int)
v1 = (s1 >= 0.5).astype(int)
b = int(np.sum((v0 == 0) & (v1 == 1))) # wrong -> right
c = int(np.sum((v0 == 1) & (v1 == 0))) # right -> wrong
chi2, p_mcnemar = mcnemar(b, c)
# pass@k curves at matched budget
ks = [k for k in (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32) if k <= pre.n_samples]
passk0 = {k: float(np.mean([pass_at_k(pre_by[i].scores, k) for i in shared])) for k in ks}
passk1 = {k: float(np.mean([pass_at_k(post_by[i].scores, k) for i in shared])) for k in ks}
corr = float(np.corrcoef(s0, s1)[0, 1]) # the rho of eq. 6.2
return {
"suite": pre.suite,
"suite_revision": pre.suite_revision,
"n_items": len(shared),
"n_samples": pre.n_samples,
"pre_model": pre.model_name,
"post_model": post.model_name,
"driver": post.driver,
"measured_at": post.measured_at,
"mean_pre": float(s0.mean()),
"mean_post": float(s1.mean()),
"delta_mean": float(d.mean()),
"delta_ci95": [lo, hi],
"perm_p": p_perm,
"cohens_dz": dz,
"pair_correlation_rho": corr,
"flips_wrong_to_right": b,
"flips_right_to_wrong": c,
"mcnemar_chi2": chi2,
"mcnemar_p": p_mcnemar,
"pass_at_k_pre": passk0,
"pass_at_k_post": passk1,
}
The rendering half turns that dict into the report template and the figure. I keep it separate so the numbers and their presentation never entangle.
"""Render a delta report dict into markdown + a pass@k figure."""
from __future__ import annotations
from pathlib import Path
import matplotlib
matplotlib.use("Agg")
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
TEMPLATE = """# Reasoning delta report
**Suite.** {suite} (rev {suite_revision}), {n_items} items, {n_samples} samples/item (matched).
**Models.** pre = {pre_model} -> post = {post_model}.
**Provenance.** measured on the baseline machine (MSI Aegis R2), driver {driver}, {measured_at}.
## Headline delta (mean-of-n / pass@1)
- pre mean solve rate: {mean_pre:.4f}
- post mean solve rate: {mean_post:.4f}
- **delta (paired): {delta_mean:+.4f}**, 95% CI [{ci_lo:+.4f}, {ci_hi:+.4f}]
- permutation p (two-sided, sign-flip): {perm_p:.4g}
- paired effect size (Cohen's d_z): {cohens_dz:+.3f}
- pair correlation rho (drives paired-CI width, eq. 6.2): {rho:.3f}
## Item-level flips (discordant pairs, eq. 6.5)
- wrong -> right (b): {b}
- right -> wrong (c): {c}
- McNemar chi2 = {mcnemar_chi2:.3f}, p = {mcnemar_p:.4g}
- net flip rate (b - c)/N = {net_flip:+.4f}
## Claim
{claim}

"""
def _claim(r: dict) -> str:
ks = sorted(r["pass_at_k_pre"], key=int)
kmax = ks[-1]
d1 = r["delta_mean"]
dpk = r["pass_at_k_post"][kmax] - r["pass_at_k_pre"][kmax]
if d1 > 0 and dpk <= 0.005:
return (f"pass@1 rose by {d1:+.4f} while pass@{kmax} is flat "
f"({dpk:+.4f}): SHARPENING, not capability expansion.")
if dpk > 0.005:
return (f"pass@{kmax} rose by {dpk:+.4f}: capability EXPANSION "
f"(model solves items unreachable at any budget before).")
return "no material shift in either pass@1 or pass@k at this budget."
def render(r: dict, out_dir: Path) -> None:
out_dir.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
ks = sorted(r["pass_at_k_pre"], key=int)
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(5, 3.2))
ax.plot(ks, [r["pass_at_k_pre"][k] for k in ks], "o-", label=r["pre_model"])
ax.plot(ks, [r["pass_at_k_post"][k] for k in ks], "s-", label=r["post_model"])
ax.set_xscale("log", base=2)
ax.set_xlabel("k (samples)")
ax.set_ylabel("pass@k")
ax.set_title("pass@k vs k (matched budget)")
ax.legend()
fig.tight_layout()
fig.savefig(out_dir / "passk_curve.png", dpi=150)
md = TEMPLATE.format(
ci_lo=r["delta_ci95"][0], ci_hi=r["delta_ci95"][1],
rho=r["pair_correlation_rho"],
b=r["flips_wrong_to_right"], c=r["flips_right_to_wrong"],
net_flip=(r["flips_wrong_to_right"] - r["flips_right_to_wrong"]) / r["n_items"],
claim=_claim(r), **r,
)
(out_dir / "delta_report.md").write_text(md)
(out_dir / "delta_report.json").write_text(__import__("json").dumps(r, indent=2))
Lab: the full pre/post analysis of the 7.3 run
The lab wires the pieces into one command that consumes the two eval logs from the 7.3 run and writes the delta-report artifact.
"""Pre/post delta analysis of the 7.3 GRPO run -> delta-report artifact."""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
from pathlib import Path
from schema import EvalLog
from delta_report import build
from render import render
def load(path: str) -> EvalLog:
return EvalLog.model_validate_json(Path(path).read_text())
def main() -> None:
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
ap.add_argument("--pre", default="logs/eval_M0.json",
help="baseline M0 eval log (chapter 3.7 harness format)")
ap.add_argument("--post", default="logs/eval_M1.json",
help="trained-checkpoint M1 eval log")
ap.add_argument("--out", default="out",
help="output dir for delta_report.{md,json} + passk_curve.png")
args = ap.parse_args()
pre = load(args.pre) # baseline eval log
post = load(args.post) # trained-checkpoint eval log
report = build(pre, post)
render(report, Path(args.out))
print(f"delta = {report['delta_mean']:+.4f} "
f"95% CI {report['delta_ci95']} "
f"perm p = {report['perm_p']:.4g} "
f"d_z = {report['cohens_dz']:+.3f}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
uv run python run_delta.py
What you should see
Under analysis/out/ three files: delta_report.json, delta_report.md, and passk_curve.png. The markdown report is the artifact, and reading top to bottom it tells the committee everything in order. It names the frozen suite and revision and states that the sampling budget was matched, so no one can accuse the delta of being a budget artifact. It gives the pre and post mean solve rates and, in bold, the paired delta with its 95% bootstrap CI and a permutation -value, so "is it real" is answered with an interval and a test rather than an assertion. It reports Cohen's and the pair correlation , so "how big" is answered in standardized units and the reader can see the very correlation that equation (6.2) says shrank the interval. It breaks the change into wrong-to-right and right-to-wrong flip counts, so a churning run cannot hide behind a modest net rate. And it ends with an explicit claim line that reads either SHARPENING or EXPANSION based on whether pass@k moved at the largest matched , next to a figure showing both pass@k curves on the same log-scaled axis.
Every number in that report is stamped as measured on the baseline machine, and until the 7.3 run has actually been evaluated on the baseline machine those slots read record value, date, driver. That is deliberate: an unfilled delta is impossible to mistake for a real one, and the template is the thing this chapter ships. When chapter 7.8 runs the whole loop for real, this exact command consumes the real logs and the report fills itself in.
The most common way to fake a delta without meaning to is to let the sampling budget drift between pre and post because you re-ran the eval with a different n after tweaking something. Equation (6.6) makes pass@k monotonic in -derived , and mean-of- has its own -dependent variance, so a budget change alone can shift both metrics. The align function refuses to run on mismatched n_samples for exactly this reason. If it throws, do not "fix" it by trimming one log to match; re-run the shorter eval at the correct budget, because trimming changes which samples you kept and quietly biases the item scores.
Here is a post that will annoy people in the right way: most reported "the model got smarter" results are really "the model got more consistent," and the difference is one plot. If you sample a model many times per problem and measure whether at least one attempt succeeds (pass@k at large k), you see the ceiling of what the model can do at all. If you measure whether a single attempt succeeds (pass@1), you see how reliably it does it. Reinforcement learning on checkable rewards tends to raise the second while leaving the first alone: it sharpens the model onto solutions it could already occasionally find, rather than teaching it genuinely new ones. That is a real and useful improvement, but it is a different claim, and the honest version of "our RL made the model better" specifies which curve moved. The hook: reliability and capability look identical on a bar chart and completely different on a pass@k curve, and only one of them is what everyone thinks you mean.
Ablations, seeds, and experimental design
Chapter 7.6 measured a reasoning delta and gave it a confidence interval. That answers "did the metric move." It does not answer "why," and a thesis committee cares about why at least as much as whether. A delta could come from the correctness reward, or from the format reward riding along, or from the mere fact of training on anything at all, or from a lucky seed. To attribute the delta to a cause I have to vary one thing at a time and watch what the delta does, and to trust the attribution I have to run enough seeds that the between-config difference is not just seed noise. On a datacenter you brute-force this with a full grid and dozens of seeds. On one 16GB card you cannot, so experimental design stops being a formality and becomes a budgeting problem: every run costs real wall-clock time on the baseline machine, the budget is finite, and the design has to spend it where it buys the most inferential power.
This chapter turns that constraint into an actual plan. The output is the thesis experiment plan: a pre-registered, machine-readable document that fixes the hypotheses, the ablation axes, the seed count derived from a power analysis, and the run matrix costed against a single-GPU time budget, before a single run happens. Pre-registration is not bureaucracy here; it is the thing that lets me claim the delta is real rather than the survivor of a hundred quiet forks.
Theory
Which ablations actually matter
An ablation removes or varies one component of the system and measures the effect on the outcome. The temptation is to ablate everything; the discipline is to ablate the few components whose effect is both plausibly large and scientifically contested. For the RLVR loop built in this part, three axes carry almost all the interpretive weight.
The reward components come first, because chapter 7.3 built the reward as a sum of a correctness term and a format term, and chapter 7.4 spent a whole chapter on how that sum gets hacked. The question a committee will ask is whether the delta is driven by the model actually solving problems (correctness) or by it learning to satisfy the format checker (format), and the only way to answer it is to run the loop with correctness-only, with format-only, and with the full reward, and compare. Format-only is close to a placebo for reasoning: if it produces nearly the same delta as the full reward, the "reasoning" delta was mostly presentation. This axis directly protects the thesis claim.
The group size comes second, because chapter 7.2 showed it sets both the variance of the group-relative advantage (equation 5.2's ) and the per-step generation cost, which on 16GB is the dominant cost. Larger gives lower-variance advantage estimates and a wider usable difficulty band, at linear cost in generations. Whether is enough or is worth the doubled generation time is an empirical question with a real budget consequence, so it earns an axis.
The KL coefficient comes third, because it controls how far the policy is allowed to drift from the reference model, and that trade sits right on top of the reward-hacking story. A small lets the policy move freely and chase reward, including hacked reward; a large anchors it near the reference and can suppress genuine learning along with the hacking. The KL term in the GRPO objective is
and is the knob that decides whether "stay close to the reference" or "maximize reward" wins when they conflict. Sweeping across, say, zero, a small value, and a large value maps out that trade-off and is exactly the kind of curve a committee reads as evidence of understanding rather than luck.
There is a fourth axis I do not put in the primary matrix but do run as a control: the random-reward placebo from chapter 4.5, where the reward is replaced with noise. It is not an ablation of a component, it is the negative control that says "training on this loop with no real signal produces no delta," and it belongs to the causal argument of 4.5. I reference it here because a good run matrix budgets for its controls, and the placebo is the most important control the whole thesis has.
Seeds are a sample size, and power analysis sets it
A single training run at a single seed is one draw from a noisy process. GRPO on one GPU is stochastic in its rollouts, its data order, and its optimization, so two seeds of the identical config land at two different deltas. If I run config A once and config B once and A's delta is larger, I have learned almost nothing, because the gap could be pure seed noise. To compare two configs I need several seeds of each, and "several" is not a vibe, it is the output of a power analysis.
Frame the comparison as a two-sample test: config A produces deltas with mean and config B with mean , each with seed-to-seed standard deviation , and I want to detect a true difference of a size worth caring about. The number of seeds per config to achieve power at significance is the standard two-sample formula
Equation (7.2) is worth reading for what it says about a one-GPU budget rather than as a formula to plug. The seed count scales as : it grows with the square of the noise and shrinks with the square of the effect you want to detect. Two consequences follow immediately. First, halving the smallest effect you care about quadruples the seeds you need, so declaring in advance that you only care about deltas above some threshold is not laziness, it is what makes the experiment affordable. Second, anything that reduces pays off quadratically, which is why the paired design of chapter 7.6 matters here too: measuring every config's delta on the same frozen suite with the same seeds for the eval sampling removes a chunk of before the power analysis even starts. With standard choices () and (power ), the leading constant , so . If the seed-to-seed SD is about equal to the effect you want to detect, that is roughly 16 seeds per config, which on one GPU is often unaffordable, and the honest response is to widen (only claim large effects), shrink (better pairing, more eval items per run), or accept lower power and say so out loud. The in (7.2) is a measured quantity: run the center config at several seeds and record the SD of its delta (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver), then let the formula tell you the seed count rather than guessing it.
The practical loop is: run a small pilot (the center config at a handful of seeds), measure , pick the smallest worth claiming, compute , and if the resulting run matrix does not fit the budget, revise upward and re-derive, all before running the real matrix. That pilot-then-power sequence is itself pre-registered, so the seed count is a documented consequence of a measured , not a number chosen after seeing which configs looked good.
The run matrix under a single-GPU time budget
Now the budgeting. Let each training run cost minutes on the baseline machine (a measured quantity dominated, per chapter 7.2, by the generations), and let the total compute budget be hours. A run matrix of configurations at seeds each, plus the controls, costs
This inequality is the design constraint, and it forces a shape on the experiment. A full factorial over three reward settings, three group sizes, and three KL values is configs, times a seed count from (7.2), times , and it will not fit. So I do not run a full factorial. I run a center config (my best guess at a good setting) and vary one axis at a time around it, a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) design. OFAT cannot see interactions between axes, which is its real limitation, but it costs configs instead of the product, and on one GPU that difference is the difference between a thesis that runs and one that does not. If the budget allows, I add back the one or two specific interaction cells I most suspect (say, small with format-only reward, the most reward-hackable corner), a fractional design rather than a full grid.
A worked skeleton, with the arithmetic explicit and the numbers marked as the design placeholders they are:
| Axis | Levels | Configs added |
|---|---|---|
| Center config | 1 | 1 |
| Reward component | correctness-only, format-only (full is center) | +2 |
| Group size | one below, one above center | +2 |
| KL coefficient | one below, one above center | +2 |
| Controls | random-reward placebo (chapter 4.5) | +1 (control) |
That is configs plus 1 control. At seeds per config the run count is , and equation (7.3) turns that into hours once and are filled from measurements. The plan generator below expands exactly this table into a costed matrix so the fit against the budget is checked by arithmetic, not optimism.
Pre-registration habits
Everything above is worthless if I decide what counts as success after seeing the results. The garden of forking paths is real: with enough metrics, enough subgroups, and enough freedom to choose the analysis after the fact, a delta of zero can be dressed as significant. The defense is pre-registration, and it is a habit, not a ceremony. Before running the matrix I write down, and commit, the following: the primary hypothesis and the primary metric (the mean paired delta on the frozen suite, from chapter 7.6, and nothing else gets to be primary after the fact); the exact ablation axes and their levels; the seed count and the -and- reasoning that produced it; the analysis (paired bootstrap CI and permutation test, multiple-comparison correction across the ablation arms); the stopping rule (all runs in the matrix complete, no peeking-and-stopping); and the exclusion criteria (what makes a run void, such as a diverged loss or an OOM restart, decided before any run is excluded).
Two of those deserve emphasis on a single GPU. Multiple comparisons: the moment I compare seven configs against the center I am running seven tests, and the family-wise error rate inflates, so the plan pre-commits to a correction (Holm or Benjamini-Hochberg over the arms, from the chapter 3.7 module) rather than reading seven raw -values as if each stood alone. And the stopping rule: it is tempting, when runs are slow and expensive, to stop the matrix early because the trend "looks clear," but optional stopping is one of the most reliable ways to manufacture significance, so the rule is that the matrix runs to completion or the result is reported as incomplete. Committing these before the fact is what converts "I found a significant delta" from a hopeful sentence into a credible one.
Tooling
The tool is a plan compiler. It reads a human-written pre-registration file (the hypotheses and axes and budget), expands the OFAT matrix, applies the power analysis to fill the seed count from a measured , costs the matrix against the time budget via equation (7.3), and refuses to emit a runnable matrix if it does not fit. The pre-registration file is the source of truth and it is committed before any run.
uv init expplan
cd expplan
uv add "pydantic>=2.7" "pyyaml>=6.0" "scipy>=1.13"
The pre-registration document
This YAML is the artifact a committee reads first. It is filled in with design choices and placeholder measurements, and the placeholders are stamped so an unmeasured or cannot masquerade as real.
# THESIS EXPERIMENT PLAN (pre-registration).
# Commit this file BEFORE running any config. Measured slots are stamped
# and the compiler refuses to expand a matrix with unfilled measurements.
title: "Reasoning delta of RLVR on the frozen thesis suite"
machine: "MSI Aegis R2 (Core Ultra 9 285, RTX 5080 16GB, Ubuntu 24.04)"
suite: "thesis-suite v1.0 (chapter 3.9)"
primary_metric: "mean paired delta in per-sample solve rate (chapter 7.6)"
primary_hypothesis: >
The full verifiable reward (correctness + format) produces a positive
mean paired delta on the frozen suite that exceeds the format-only
ablation and the random-reward placebo.
analysis:
ci: "paired bootstrap, 95% (evalstats, chapter 3.7)"
test: "sign-flip permutation, two-sided (evalstats)"
multiple_comparison_correction: "holm" # across ablation arms
stopping_rule: "run full matrix to completion; no optional stopping"
exclusion_criteria:
- "loss diverges (NaN/inf) -> void, re-seed once, then report"
- "OOM restart mid-run -> void the run, do not silently resume"
power:
alpha: 0.05
power: 0.80
# smallest delta-difference worth claiming, a DESIGN choice:
min_effect_delta: 0.03
# seed-to-seed SD of the delta, MEASURED from the pilot:
seed_sigma: "record: measured on the baseline machine, date, driver"
budget:
total_hours: 24 # single-GPU compute budget, a design choice
minutes_per_run: "record: T measured on the baseline machine, date, driver"
center_config:
reward: "full" # correctness + format
group_size_K: 8
kl_beta: 0.02
ablations:
reward: ["correctness_only", "format_only"] # full is the center
group_size_K: [4, 16] # 8 is the center
kl_beta: [0.0, 0.1] # 0.02 is the center
controls:
- name: "random_reward_placebo" # chapter 4.5 negative control
reward: "random"
The plan compiler
"""Compile the pre-registration YAML into a costed OFAT run matrix.
Steps:
1. load and validate the plan (measured slots must be filled)
2. power analysis -> seeds per config (eq. 7.2)
3. expand OFAT matrix around the center config
4. cost against the time budget (eq. 7.3); refuse if it does not fit
Emits run_matrix.csv (the runnable plan) only if the budget holds.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import csv
import math
from pathlib import Path
import yaml
from scipy.stats import norm
def seeds_per_config(sigma: float, delta: float, alpha: float, power: float) -> int:
"""Two-sample seed count, eq. 7.2, rounded up."""
z = norm.ppf(1 - alpha / 2) + norm.ppf(power)
n = 2.0 * (z ** 2) * (sigma ** 2) / (delta ** 2)
return max(2, math.ceil(n))
def _require_measured(value, label: str) -> float:
if isinstance(value, str) and "record" in value:
raise ValueError(f"unfilled measurement: {label} is still stamped '{value}'")
return float(value)
def expand_ofat(plan: dict) -> list[dict]:
center = plan["center_config"]
configs = [{"name": "center", **center}]
for axis, levels in plan["ablations"].items():
for lvl in levels:
cfg = dict(center)
cfg[axis] = lvl
configs.append({"name": f"{axis}={lvl}", **cfg})
return configs
def main() -> None:
plan = yaml.safe_load(Path("experiment_plan.yaml").read_text())
sigma = _require_measured(plan["power"]["seed_sigma"], "power.seed_sigma")
T = _require_measured(plan["budget"]["minutes_per_run"], "budget.minutes_per_run")
n_seeds = seeds_per_config(
sigma=sigma,
delta=plan["power"]["min_effect_delta"],
alpha=plan["power"]["alpha"],
power=plan["power"]["power"],
)
configs = expand_ofat(plan)
n_controls = len(plan.get("controls", []))
total_runs = len(configs) * n_seeds + n_controls
total_minutes = total_runs * T
budget_minutes = 60 * plan["budget"]["total_hours"]
print(f"configs={len(configs)} seeds/config={n_seeds} "
f"controls={n_controls} total_runs={total_runs}")
print(f"cost={total_minutes:.0f} min budget={budget_minutes:.0f} min")
if total_minutes > budget_minutes:
raise SystemExit(
f"OVER BUDGET by {total_minutes - budget_minutes:.0f} min. "
f"Raise min_effect_delta, cut an axis, or raise total_hours -- "
f"and re-commit the plan before running anything."
)
rows = []
run_id = 0
for cfg in configs:
for s in range(n_seeds):
rows.append({"run_id": run_id, "seed": s, **cfg})
run_id += 1
for ctrl in plan.get("controls", []):
rows.append({"run_id": run_id, "seed": 0, **ctrl})
run_id += 1
with Path("run_matrix.csv").open("w", newline="") as f:
w = csv.DictWriter(f, fieldnames=sorted({k for r in rows for k in r}))
w.writeheader()
w.writerows(rows)
print(f"wrote run_matrix.csv with {len(rows)} runs")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Lab: produce the thesis experiment plan
The lab is short because the thinking is in the plan, not the code. Fill the two measured slots from a pilot run, then compile.
# 1. run the center config at a few seeds (chapter 7.2/7.3 trainer),
# evaluate each with chapter 7.6, and record:
# - the seed-to-seed SD of the delta -> power.seed_sigma
# - the wall-clock minutes per run -> budget.minutes_per_run
# (measured on the baseline machine -- record value, date, driver)
# 2. edit experiment_plan.yaml to replace both 'record: ...' slots
# 3. compile the costed matrix (refuses if over budget)
uv run python compile_plan.py
What you should see
Two committed artifacts. The first is experiment_plan.yaml itself, the pre-registration, committed before any real run and carrying its measured slots stamped until the pilot fills them. The second, produced by the compiler, is run_matrix.csv: one row per run, each with a run id, a seed, and the full config, expanding the seven OFAT configs across the power-derived seed count plus the random-reward control. The console prints the arithmetic of equation (7.3) in the open: how many configs, how many seeds each, the total run count, the total minutes, and the budget in minutes. If the matrix fits, you get the CSV. If it does not, the compiler refuses and tells you the three honest levers, raise the minimum effect you will claim, cut an axis, or buy more hours, and it makes you re-commit the plan before anything runs. That refusal is the point: the design is forced to be affordable and pre-registered before a single GPU-minute is spent, so when chapter 7.6's delta comes back significant, it is significant under a plan that was fixed in advance rather than fitted to the answer.
The seed count is the number to stare at. If the power analysis demands more seeds than the budget can hold, that is not a bug to route around, it is the experiment telling you the effect you are chasing is too small to detect on one GPU at the noise you have, and the correct response is to claim a larger effect or reduce the noise, both of which the plan makes explicit.
Reusing eval seeds across configs is good (it shrinks via pairing) but reusing training seeds across configs is a trap: if config A and config B share a training seed, their deltas are correlated in a way the two-sample power analysis of equation (7.2) assumes away, and the correction across arms gets muddled. Keep training seeds distinct per run (that is what the seed column in the matrix is for) and keep the eval sampling seeds shared across configs. Mixing the two up is a subtle way to both understate your uncertainty and confuse the multiple-comparison correction.
The most useful idea from experimental design for anyone with a small budget is that a power analysis run backwards is a bullshit detector. Instead of asking "how many samples do I need," fix the samples you can actually afford, fix the noise you actually measured, and solve for the smallest effect you could possibly detect. If that smallest detectable effect is larger than any effect worth caring about, the experiment is dead before it starts and no amount of running it will help. On one GPU this happens constantly, and it is liberating rather than depressing: it tells you, in advance and in one line of arithmetic, which questions your hardware can answer and which ones you should stop pretending to ask. The hook: you do not need a bigger computer, you need to know before you start whether the one you have can see the thing you are looking for.
Capstone: the loop end-to-end
This chapter introduces nothing. That is the whole point of it. Every tool it uses was built in an earlier chapter, every statistic comes from a module already written, every measured slot is stamped the way the book has stamped measurements since the hardware baseline. What the capstone does is run the entire loop in one sitting, on the baseline machine, start to finish, so that the thesis stops being a collection of chapters that each work in isolation and becomes a single pipeline that produces a result. Serve the baseline, evaluate it, train on the loop, merge the adapter, re-serve, re-evaluate, make the figures, archive everything. When the archive lands on the NAS with its provenance intact, the thesis pipeline is real: not a claim about what could be measured, but an artifact on disk that was.
I want to be honest about what "one sitting" means on a single 16GB card. It does not mean fast. It means uninterrupted and reproducible: one orchestration script, one command, one archive at the end, no manual step that a later me could get wrong. The serving and training phases cannot both hold their heavyweight state in 16GB at once (that constraint has driven the whole book), so the loop is a sequence in time, not a thing running in parallel, and the orchestration exists precisely to sequence it correctly and reclaim VRAM between phases.
Theory
There is no new theory. There is only the shape of the loop, which every prior chapter has been a piece of, assembled once so you can see the whole thing at altitude.
The loop is a directed sequence with one return edge, and each node is a chapter:
- Serve . Bring up the baseline policy on the chapter 2.6 inference substrate, the same vLLM configuration every measurement in the book has used. This is the fixed serving substrate; nothing about how the model is served changes between the pre and post halves, so the model is the only thing that varies.
- Evaluate . Run the frozen thesis task suite v1.0 (chapter 3.9) against the served baseline, logging per-item, per-sample scores in the chapter 3.7 format. This is the "pre" measurement of chapter 7.6.
- Train. Tear down the server to reclaim VRAM, then run GRPO on 16GB (chapter 7.2) with the Part III verifier scorers wired in as rewards (chapter 7.3), on the difficulty-banded, provenance-stamped, eval-deduped prompt set (chapter 7.5). Output is a LoRA adapter.
- Merge. Merge the adapter into the base weights to produce , a standalone checkpoint the serving substrate can load exactly as it loads . Merging matters because it makes the post model served identically to the pre model, same substrate and same decoding, closing off "you served them differently" as an alternative explanation for the delta. One caveat I state rather than hide: the adapter was trained over an NF4 4-bit base, so the merged is that 4-bit base dequantized and merged, not bit-identical to the full-precision weights is served from, and that quantization step is a named confound, not a silent one. The clean control is to evaluate under the same merged-and-dequantized regime (the base with a zero adapter), which is exactly the kind of control run chapter 4.5 carries, so the only difference left to explain the delta is the training itself.
- Re-serve and re-evaluate . Bring the substrate back up on the merged and run the identical suite at the identical sampling budget, logging in the identical format. This is the "post" measurement.
- Figures. Run the chapter 7.6 delta report on the two logs to produce the paired delta, its bootstrap CI, the permutation -value, the effect size, and the pass@k curves.
- Archive. Promote every artifact from working NVMe to the 5TB NAS with a manifest, so the whole run is reproducible from the archive alone.
The return edge is the delta: the loop's output is the measured difference between the re-evaluation and the evaluation, which is the dependent variable the entire thesis is organized to estimate. Running it once, cleanly, is the capstone.
Tooling
The tool is an orchestrator, and it is deliberately thin: it calls the chapter tools in order, checks that each phase produced its expected artifact before starting the next, reclaims VRAM between the serve and train phases, and writes one capstone report at the end that stitches the provenance of every phase together. It introduces no new logic because introducing new logic would violate the premise. The right shape for it is a small task runner so that each phase is a named target with explicit inputs and outputs, and a failed phase stops the loop rather than corrupting the archive.
uv init capstone
cd capstone
uv add "pydantic>=2.7" "pyyaml>=6.0"
# the actual work lives in the chapter projects, invoked as subprocesses:
# ../curriculum (7.5) ../analysis (7.6) ../evalstats (3.7)
# plus the 2.6 serving config, 7.2/7.3 trainer, 3.9 frozen suite
The run configuration
One file names everything the loop needs, and every path points at an artifact an earlier chapter already produced. Nothing here is new; it is a table of contents for the book made executable.
# Capstone loop configuration. Every entry references an artifact from
# an earlier chapter. No new concepts -- only wiring.
machine: "MSI Aegis R2 (Core Ultra 9 285, RTX 5080 16GB, Ubuntu 24.04)"
driver: "record: e.g. 570-open" # measured on the baseline machine
run_date: "record: ISO date of this run"
base_model: "unsloth/Qwen3-4B" # M0
serve:
substrate: "vllm (chapter 2.6 config)"
port: 8000
endpoint: "http://localhost:8000/v1"
suite:
path: "../thesis_suite_v1.jsonl" # frozen 3.9 suite
revision: "thesis-suite v1.0"
n_samples: 16 # matched across pre/post
temperature: 0.8
max_tokens: 1024
train:
prompt_set: "../curriculum/out/sda_train_prompts.v1.jsonl" # 7.5
provenance: "../curriculum/out/provenance.json" # 7.5
reward: "full" # correctness + format (7.3)
group_size_K: 8 # 7.2
kl_beta: 0.02
seed: 0
adapter_out: "work/adapter"
merge:
merged_out: "work/M1_merged"
archive:
nas_root: "/mnt/nas/thesis-runs" # 5TB NAS archive tier
The orchestrator
"""Run the whole thesis loop end-to-end, one sitting, no new concepts.
Each phase invokes a tool built in an earlier chapter and checks its
artifact before the next phase starts. Serving and training never hold
VRAM at once: the server is torn down before training and brought back
up after merge. Nothing here computes a statistic or defines a reward --
it only sequences chapters and records provenance.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import subprocess
import time
from pathlib import Path
import yaml
CFG = yaml.safe_load(Path("loop.yaml").read_text())
WORK = Path("work")
WORK.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
def run(cmd: list[str], phase: str) -> None:
print(f"\n=== phase: {phase} ===\n$ {' '.join(cmd)}")
t0 = time.time()
subprocess.run(cmd, check=True) # a failed phase stops the loop
dt = time.time() - t0
(WORK / f"{phase}.timing").write_text(
f"{phase}: {dt:.1f}s # measured on the baseline machine, "
f"{CFG['run_date']}, driver {CFG['driver']}\n"
)
def require(path: str, phase: str) -> Path:
p = Path(path)
if not p.exists():
raise SystemExit(f"phase {phase} did not produce {path}; loop halted")
return p
def serve_up(model: str) -> subprocess.Popen:
proc = subprocess.Popen(
["vllm", "serve", model, "--port", str(CFG["serve"]["port"])]
)
# wait for readiness (chapter 2.6 has the real health-check;
# this is the thin orchestration version)
time.sleep(30)
return proc
def serve_down(proc: subprocess.Popen) -> None:
proc.terminate()
proc.wait(timeout=60)
time.sleep(5) # let VRAM actually free before the next phase
def eval_suite(endpoint: str, model: str, out: str, phase: str) -> Path:
run([
"uv", "run", "--project", "../evalstats", "python", "-m", "evalstats.run_eval",
"--endpoint", endpoint, "--model", model,
"--suite", CFG["suite"]["path"], "--suite-rev", CFG["suite"]["revision"],
"--n-samples", str(CFG["suite"]["n_samples"]),
"--temperature", str(CFG["suite"]["temperature"]),
"--max-tokens", str(CFG["suite"]["max_tokens"]),
"--driver", CFG["driver"], "--measured-at", CFG["run_date"],
"--out", out,
], phase)
return require(out, phase)
def main() -> None:
# ---- 1. serve + evaluate M0 (pre) ----
proc = serve_up(CFG["base_model"])
pre_log = eval_suite(CFG["serve"]["endpoint"], CFG["base_model"],
str(WORK / "eval_M0.json"), "eval_pre")
serve_down(proc) # reclaim VRAM before training
# ---- 2. train (GRPO on 16GB, scorers-as-rewards, 7.5 prompt set) ----
run([
"uv", "run", "python", "-m", "trainer.grpo",
"--base", CFG["base_model"],
"--prompts", CFG["train"]["prompt_set"],
"--reward", CFG["train"]["reward"],
"--group-size", str(CFG["train"]["group_size_K"]),
"--kl-beta", str(CFG["train"]["kl_beta"]),
"--seed", str(CFG["train"]["seed"]),
"--adapter-out", CFG["train"]["adapter_out"],
], "train")
require(CFG["train"]["adapter_out"], "train")
# ---- 3. merge adapter -> M1 ----
run([
"uv", "run", "python", "-m", "trainer.merge",
"--base", CFG["base_model"],
"--adapter", CFG["train"]["adapter_out"],
"--out", CFG["merge"]["merged_out"],
], "merge")
require(CFG["merge"]["merged_out"], "merge")
# ---- 4. re-serve + re-evaluate M1 (post), identical budget ----
proc = serve_up(CFG["merge"]["merged_out"])
post_log = eval_suite(CFG["serve"]["endpoint"], CFG["merge"]["merged_out"],
str(WORK / "eval_M1.json"), "eval_post")
serve_down(proc)
# ---- 5. figures: the 7.6 delta report ----
run([
"uv", "run", "--project", "../analysis", "python", "run_delta.py",
"--pre", str(pre_log), "--post", str(post_log),
"--out", str(WORK / "delta"),
], "figures")
require(str(WORK / "delta" / "delta_report.md"), "figures")
# ---- 6. capstone report + archive ----
write_capstone_report()
archive_run()
def write_capstone_report() -> None:
delta = json.loads((WORK / "delta" / "delta_report.json").read_text())
prov = json.loads(Path(CFG["train"]["provenance"]).read_text())
report = f"""# Capstone report -- thesis loop end-to-end
**Machine.** {CFG['machine']}
**Driver / date.** {CFG['driver']} / {CFG['run_date']}
(all timings and deltas measured on the baseline machine; see .timing files)
## Pipeline
serve M0 -> eval (pre) -> GRPO train -> merge -> re-serve M1 -> eval (post)
-> delta report -> archive
## Provenance of inputs
- base model (M0): {CFG['base_model']}
- frozen suite: {CFG['suite']['revision']}, {delta['n_items']} items,
{delta['n_samples']} samples/item (matched pre/post)
- training prompt set: {prov['prompt_set_name']}
(source {prov['source']['name']} rev {prov['source']['revision']},
{prov['n_final']} prompts, deduped vs {prov['dedup']['eval_suite']})
- reward: {CFG['train']['reward']}, K={CFG['train']['group_size_K']},
KL beta={CFG['train']['kl_beta']}, seed={CFG['train']['seed']}
## Result (the return edge of the loop)
- pre mean solve rate: {delta['mean_pre']:.4f}
- post mean solve rate: {delta['mean_post']:.4f}
- **paired delta: {delta['delta_mean']:+.4f}**, 95% CI {delta['delta_ci95']}
- permutation p: {delta['perm_p']:.4g}
- Cohen's d_z: {delta['cohens_dz']:+.3f}
- flips w->r / r->w: {delta['flips_wrong_to_right']} / {delta['flips_right_to_wrong']}
- pass@k (pre/post): see delta/passk_curve.png
## Reproduce
uv run python run_loop.py # from this archive, all inputs pinned above
"""
(WORK / "capstone_report.md").write_text(report)
print(report)
def archive_run() -> None:
nas = Path(CFG["archive"]["nas_root"]) / f"capstone-{CFG['run_date']}"
nas.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
manifest = {
"machine": CFG["machine"],
"driver": CFG["driver"],
"run_date": CFG["run_date"],
"artifacts": sorted(str(p.name) for p in WORK.rglob("*") if p.is_file()),
}
subprocess.run(["cp", "-r", str(WORK) + "/.", str(nas)], check=True)
(nas / "manifest.json").write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
print(f"archived to {nas}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Lab: run the whole loop
One command, one sitting. The frozen suite, the trained prompt set, and the 2.6 serving config must already exist (they are the artifacts of chapters 3.9, 7.5, and 2.6); the capstone does not rebuild them, it consumes them.
# fill loop.yaml's driver and run_date, confirm the referenced artifacts
# exist, then:
uv run python run_loop.py
What you should see
The console walks the phases in order, printing each phase banner and the command it ran, and it stops hard the moment any phase fails to produce its artifact, so a broken run never silently corrupts the archive. When it finishes, three things exist that did not before. Under capstone/work/ there is the full set of intermediate artifacts: the pre and post eval logs in the chapter 3.7 format, the trained adapter, the merged checkpoint, the chapter 7.6 delta report with its markdown, its JSON, and its pass@k figure, and a .timing file per phase stamping the wall-clock cost of each on the baseline machine. There is capstone_report.md, which is the artifact of this chapter and of the whole part: a single page that names every pinned input (the base model, the frozen suite and its revision, the training prompt set with its provenance and dedup, the reward and hyperparameters) and then states the result, the paired delta with its CI, its permutation -value, its effect size, and the flip counts, as the return edge of the loop. And under the NAS archive root there is a dated directory holding a copy of all of it plus a manifest, so the entire run reproduces from the archive alone.
Every number in that report is stamped as measured on the baseline machine, and until you run the loop for real they read record value, date, driver, which is the book keeping its one promise to the end: a measured quantity comes stamped or it comes marked as not yet measured, and there is no third category. The moment those slots fill with real values from a real run, the thesis pipeline is no longer a design. It is a result you can hand a committee, and hand a later version of yourself, and both can reproduce it from one archived directory with one command.
This closes the thread. The SDA verifiable-reasoning example has traveled the whole book: it was a task whose responses could be checked (the preface's promise), it became items in the frozen suite (chapter 3.9), its scorer became a reward (chapter 7.3), its difficulty band shaped the training prompt set (chapter 7.5), and its reasoning delta was measured with paired statistics (chapter 7.6). Here it rides the loop end-to-end and lands in the capstone report as a single paired delta on the SDA items, with a bootstrap CI and a permutation p-value, measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver, and hardened by the control runs of chapter 4.5 against the charge that any training at all would have moved it. That was the entire ambition of the thread: to take one concrete problem someone cared enough to write a thesis about and carry it from first eval to trained, re-evaluated model without ever losing the chain of provenance. The chain is now unbroken from the frozen item to the archived delta, and the loop that connects them runs on one 16GB card in one sitting. The general book stands on its own; the thread was the proof that the general machinery composes on a real problem, and this report is that proof made into a file on disk.
The satisfying post here is the one about the whole thing fitting in one sitting on one ordinary GPU. Everyone assumes the loop that turns "measure a model" into "train a model" into "measure it again and prove it improved" is a datacenter ritual, and the reveal is that it is a single script you can run before dinner on a 16GB desktop card, provided you respect one constraint the whole way through: serving and training never hold the card at once, so the loop is a sequence in time, not a swarm in parallel. Show the seven phases as a chain, point out that the last edge is the number the whole thing exists to produce, and end on the archive: the payoff is not the delta, it is that the delta arrives with its entire provenance attached, reproducible from one directory by one command, so that a year from now you or anyone can check whether it was real. The hook: the difference between a demo and a result is a manifest, and the manifest costs you almost nothing to keep.
Containerizing the stack
Up to here the stack has been a set of uv projects on one machine: serve/ boots vLLM, train/ runs the GRPO loop, and both are pinned to the letter by their uv.lock files. That worked because there was exactly one machine and I owned it. The moment I want to run something the RTX 5080's 16GB cannot hold, I have to move the stack onto a rented box I do not own, will never see, and am paying for by the second. The question this chapter answers is: how do I make the rented H100 run exactly the code the lock files describe, with no "works on my machine" drift, and prove it before the meter has cost me anything real?
The answer is a container image built from the lock file. A uv.lock pins Python packages; it does not pin the CUDA userspace, the system libraries, or the interpreter. An image pins all of it. If I build the image from the lock and pin the base image by digest, then the artifact that ships to Lambda is a single content-addressed blob that resolves to bit-identical software on my desk and on the H100. The only thing that differs between the two machines is the GPU under the floor, and that difference is the entire reason I am renting. Everything else must be held constant, or the burst run tells me nothing.
This chapter builds two images (one for serve/, one for train/), wires GPU passthrough through the NVIDIA Container Toolkit, and runs a parity smoke test that I can execute locally on the 5080 and again on the rented H100 to confirm the software stack is identical before I trust a single training number.
Theory
What the lock file pins, and what it doesn't
uv.lock is a complete, hashed resolution of the Python dependency graph: every package, every version, every wheel hash, resolved for the target platform markers. uv sync --frozen against that lock reproduces the exact same site-packages every time, and refuses to move if the lock and pyproject.toml disagree. That is a strong guarantee, but it stops at the Python boundary.
Below that boundary sit things the lock says nothing about: the glibc version, the CUDA runtime and its libraries (libcudart, libcublas, libcudnn), the C++ ABI, git, rsync, the interpreter's own build. PyTorch wheels bundle their own CUDA libraries, which papers over a lot, but not all of it: NCCL, driver-adjacent bits, and any package that shells out to a system tool will happily behave differently on Ubuntu 24.04 with a 570 driver than on whatever image Lambda's base OS ships. The container's job is to freeze that lower layer too, so that the pair (base image digest, uv.lock hash) uniquely determines the running software.
Let the running software stack be a function of three inputs:
On the baseline machine, is whatever I pin, is the committed lock, and . On the rented box, and are byte-identical because they travel inside the image; only changes to . So any behavioural difference between the two runs is attributable to alone. That is exactly the isolation I want: I am buying a change in and nothing else. If or were allowed to drift, a training regression on the H100 would be unattributable, and an unattributable result on a paid machine is money set on fire.
Blackwell here, Hopper there: the compute-capability gap
The one place the hardware difference leaks up into the software is GPU kernels. The RTX 5080 is Blackwell, compute capability sm_120; the H100 is Hopper, compute capability sm_90. A CUDA binary kernel is compiled for a specific capability, with PTX as a forward-compatible fallback that the driver JIT-compiles. If a wheel ships kernels for sm_90 but not sm_120, it runs on the H100 and falls over on my 5080, or vice versa.
In practice modern PyTorch wheels built against CUDA 12.8+ carry cubins for a broad set of architectures including both sm_90 and sm_120, plus PTX, so the same wheel runs on both. But "in practice" is not "provably," and Blackwell is new enough (it needs CUDA 12.8 and a 570-series driver at minimum) that I do not want to assume. The parity test at the end of this chapter checks torch.cuda.get_device_capability() and actually runs a kernel on each machine, so I catch a missing-arch problem on the ground rather than three dollars into a rented hour.
The host driver must be new enough for the CUDA version inside the image, and this is a one-way street. A CUDA 12.8 image needs a driver that supports 12.8 (570-series or newer). My local 570-open is fine. Lambda's H100 images ship recent drivers, but "recent" is not a number, so I check nvidia-smi on the rented box the moment it boots and record the driver version, because if their driver is somehow older than my image's CUDA runtime, nothing will run and the meter is already going. Never assume the rented host's driver; read it.
Two projects, two images
The two-environment doctrine from Part 0 carries straight through to containers: serve/ and train/ have separate lock files because they have genuinely conflicting dependency graphs (vLLM's pins versus Unsloth/TRL's pins), and forcing them into one environment was the original sin I refused to commit. So they get two images. serve.Dockerfile builds the vLLM serving environment; train.Dockerfile builds the training environment. They share a base and a build pattern but resolve different locks. On the H100 I might run only train, or run serve and train side by side (vLLM generating rollouts, the trainer consuming them), and keeping the images separate means I compose them however the run demands without dragging one project's dependency conflicts into the other.
Why multi-stage, and why not bake weights in
Two build disciplines matter for burst economics. First, multi-stage builds: resolve and install dependencies in a builder stage, then copy only the finished virtual environment into a slim runtime stage. This keeps the shipped image smaller, which matters because I pull it over the network onto the rented box and pulling is billable wall-clock time. Second, never bake model weights or datasets into the image. Weights are gigabytes, they change independently of code, and (the part that matters for this whole part of the book) baking data into an image blurs the open-data boundary I am about to spend the next chapter defending. Code goes in the image; weights and data are mounted or fetched at runtime from their own pinned sources. The image stays a pure function of .
Tooling
The NVIDIA Container Toolkit and how passthrough actually works
A container does not get a GPU by magic and it does not ship its own driver. The kernel-mode NVIDIA driver lives on the host and is the one piece that cannot be containerized: it is a kernel module bound to the running kernel. The NVIDIA Container Toolkit is the bridge. It registers a container-runtime hook that, at container start, injects the host's driver libraries and device nodes into the container's filesystem and cgroup. The image carries the CUDA userspace (toolkit, libcudart, and so on); the host provides the driver; the toolkit staples them together at launch.
The consequence is exactly the parity property I want. The same image, run on my 5080 and on the H100, picks up whichever host driver is present and talks to whichever GPU is wired in. I build once and the toolkit handles the hardware swap. On modern setups the injection is described by CDI (the Container Device Interface), and you request a device with --gpus all (Docker) or a --device flag (Podman); older flows used --runtime=nvidia. Either way the pattern is: install the toolkit on both hosts, then ask for the GPU at docker run.
# Add NVIDIA's container-toolkit apt repo (see NVIDIA docs), then:
sudo apt-get update && sudo apt-get install -y nvidia-container-toolkit
sudo nvidia-ctk runtime configure --runtime=docker
sudo systemctl restart docker
# Smoke test: does a stock CUDA image see the GPU through the toolkit?
docker run --rm --gpus all nvidia/cuda:12.8.0-base-ubuntu24.04 nvidia-smi
That last nvidia-smi printing a GPU table is the whole passthrough chain working: host driver, toolkit injection, container userspace. Run it on both machines before anything else; it is the cheapest possible check that the plumbing is sound.
Building from the lock with uv, the right way
uv has a documented Docker pattern and it is worth following exactly, because the naive pip install inside a Dockerfile throws away every guarantee the lock gives me. The key moves:
- Copy
pyproject.tomlanduv.lockfirst, runuv sync --frozen --no-install-projectto build the dependency layer, then copy the source and sync again. This caches the expensive dependency layer so that editing my own code does not re-resolve the world on every rebuild. - Use
--frozen(or--locked) so the build fails rather than silently re-resolving if the lock is stale. A build that quietly drifts from the lock defeats the entire point of shipping the lock. - Use
--no-devso test-only and lint-only dependencies do not bloat the runtime image. - Pin the base image by digest, not just by tag. Tags are mutable:
nvidia/cuda:12.8.0-runtime-ubuntu24.04can be repushed. A@sha256:...digest cannot. The digest is half of my reproducibility identity, so I nail it down.
The official ghcr.io/astral-sh/uv images provide the uv binary you copy in via COPY --from, which avoids a curl-pipe-to-shell install inside the build and keeps uv itself pinned.
Lab: build the serve and train images and prove parity
The artifacts are two Dockerfiles, a .dockerignore, and a parity smoke-test script, plus the two built images on disk. I build and test them locally on the 5080 in this chapter; the next chapter carries the same images to the H100.
Project layout
thesis-tech-stack/
.dockerignore # MUST live at the build-context root (context is `.`)
serve/ # vLLM serving project (has its own uv.lock)
pyproject.toml
uv.lock
src/serve/...
train/ # GRPO training project (has its own uv.lock)
pyproject.toml
uv.lock
src/train/...
docker/
serve.Dockerfile
train.Dockerfile
parity_check.py
build.sh
The serve image
# syntax=docker/dockerfile:1.7
# --- Base pinned by digest: CUDA 12.8 runtime on Ubuntu 24.04. ---
# Replace the digest with the one you resolve on the run date:
# docker buildx imagetools inspect nvidia/cuda:12.8.0-runtime-ubuntu24.04
ARG CUDA_BASE=nvidia/cuda:12.8.0-runtime-ubuntu24.04@sha256:REPLACE_WITH_RESOLVED_DIGEST
# ---------- builder ----------
FROM ${CUDA_BASE} AS builder
# Bring in a pinned uv binary rather than curl|sh.
COPY --from=ghcr.io/astral-sh/uv:0.5.11 /uv /uvx /bin/
ENV UV_COMPILE_BYTECODE=1 \
UV_LINK_MODE=copy \
UV_PYTHON_INSTALL_DIR=/opt/python
WORKDIR /app/serve
# Dependency layer first: copy only the resolution inputs, sync deps.
COPY serve/pyproject.toml serve/uv.lock ./
RUN --mount=type=cache,target=/root/.cache/uv \
uv sync --frozen --no-install-project --no-dev
# Now the project source, then install the project itself.
COPY serve/ ./
RUN --mount=type=cache,target=/root/.cache/uv \
uv sync --frozen --no-dev
# ---------- runtime ----------
FROM ${CUDA_BASE} AS runtime
# Minimal system tools the runtime actually needs.
RUN apt-get update && apt-get install -y --no-install-recommends \
git rsync ca-certificates \
&& rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/*
# Copy the built interpreter + venv from the builder. Nothing is re-resolved.
COPY --from=builder /opt/python /opt/python
COPY --from=builder /app/serve /app/serve
ENV PATH="/app/serve/.venv/bin:${PATH}" \
HF_HOME=/data/hf \
VLLM_NO_USAGE_STATS=1
WORKDIR /app/serve
# Weights are NOT baked in; /data is mounted at runtime.
# vLLM's OpenAI-compatible server listens on 8000.
EXPOSE 8000
ENTRYPOINT ["vllm", "serve"]
CMD ["--help"]
The train image
# syntax=docker/dockerfile:1.7
# Training uses the -devel base (nvcc, headers) because some kernels
# (Unsloth/Triton, flash-attn if used) can compile at install or import time.
ARG CUDA_BASE=nvidia/cuda:12.8.0-devel-ubuntu24.04@sha256:REPLACE_WITH_RESOLVED_DIGEST
# ---------- builder ----------
FROM ${CUDA_BASE} AS builder
COPY --from=ghcr.io/astral-sh/uv:0.5.11 /uv /uvx /bin/
ENV UV_COMPILE_BYTECODE=1 \
UV_LINK_MODE=copy \
UV_PYTHON_INSTALL_DIR=/opt/python
WORKDIR /app/train
# Dependency layer.
COPY train/pyproject.toml train/uv.lock ./
RUN --mount=type=cache,target=/root/.cache/uv \
uv sync --frozen --no-install-project --no-dev
# Project source + install.
COPY train/ ./
RUN --mount=type=cache,target=/root/.cache/uv \
uv sync --frozen --no-dev
# ---------- runtime ----------
FROM ${CUDA_BASE} AS runtime
RUN apt-get update && apt-get install -y --no-install-recommends \
git rsync ca-certificates build-essential \
&& rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/*
COPY --from=builder /opt/python /opt/python
COPY --from=builder /app/train /app/train
ENV PATH="/app/train/.venv/bin:${PATH}" \
HF_HOME=/data/hf \
MLFLOW_TRACKING_URI=file:/data/mlruns \
TOKENIZERS_PARALLELISM=false
WORKDIR /app/train
# Entry is the training CLI defined in the train/ project.
ENTRYPOINT ["python", "-m", "train.run"]
CMD ["--help"]
The dockerignore
Keep the build context tiny and, more importantly, keep weights, datasets, and MLflow runs out of the image. This is the first line of the open-data boundary: things that could carry non-open data never enter the build context. Docker only reads .dockerignore from the root of the build context, and build.sh builds with the context set to the repo root (the trailing . in each docker build), so this file lives at the repo root, not inside docker/. Put it anywhere else and Docker silently ignores it, and the weights, data, mlruns, and .venv excludes never apply.
**/.venv
**/__pycache__
**/*.pyc
**/.git
**/.pytest_cache
**/mlruns
**/data
**/*.safetensors
**/*.gguf
**/*.bin
**/checkpoints
**/.env
The parity check
This is the script I run on both machines. It prints the software fingerprint (versions, the sm_ arches the wheels support, the actual device capability) and runs a real matmul so a missing-arch kernel fails here, cheaply, rather than mid-training.
"""Print the stack fingerprint and run one real GPU kernel.
Run identically on the local 5080 and the rented H100. The Python/torch/
package versions MUST match line for line (that is the point of the image);
only the device name and capability are allowed to differ.
"""
import hashlib
import json
import platform
import subprocess
import sys
def _driver_version() -> str:
try:
out = subprocess.check_output(
["nvidia-smi", "--query-gpu=driver_version",
"--format=csv,noheader"], text=True)
return out.strip().splitlines()[0]
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
return f"unavailable: {e}"
def main() -> int:
import torch # imported here so a broken CUDA userspace surfaces cleanly
fp = {
"python": platform.python_version(),
"torch": torch.__version__,
"torch_cuda": torch.version.cuda,
"cuda_available": torch.cuda.is_available(),
"device_name": torch.cuda.get_device_name(0)
if torch.cuda.is_available() else None,
"device_capability": ".".join(
map(str, torch.cuda.get_device_capability(0)))
if torch.cuda.is_available() else None,
"arch_list": torch.cuda.get_arch_list(), # sm_XX the wheel supports
"driver_version": _driver_version(),
}
# Real kernel: if the wheel lacks this device's arch (and PTX JIT also
# fails), this raises instead of silently returning garbage.
if torch.cuda.is_available():
a = torch.randn(2048, 2048, device="cuda", dtype=torch.bfloat16)
b = torch.randn(2048, 2048, device="cuda", dtype=torch.bfloat16)
c = (a @ b).float()
torch.cuda.synchronize()
fp["matmul_ok"] = bool(torch.isfinite(c).all().item())
# Hash only the SOFTWARE fields so the fingerprint matches across machines.
sw = {k: fp[k] for k in ("python", "torch", "torch_cuda", "arch_list")}
fp["software_fingerprint"] = hashlib.sha256(
json.dumps(sw, sort_keys=True).encode()).hexdigest()[:16]
print(json.dumps(fp, indent=2))
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
sys.exit(main())
The build script
#!/usr/bin/env bash
set -euo pipefail
# Resolve the base digest ONCE and paste it into both Dockerfiles so the two
# images pin the same base. TAG defaults to the current git short SHA.
TAG="${TAG:-$(git rev-parse --short HEAD)}"
echo "Building serve:${TAG} and train:${TAG}"
docker build -f docker/serve.Dockerfile -t thesis-serve:"${TAG}" .
docker build -f docker/train.Dockerfile -t thesis-train:"${TAG}" .
# --entrypoint python OVERRIDES each image's ENTRYPOINT (vllm serve /
# python -m train.run); without it the args just append and the parity
# script never runs. Redirect stdout (pure JSON) into its own clean file.
echo "Parity check (serve image):"
docker run --rm --gpus all --entrypoint python \
-v "$(pwd)/docker":/chk thesis-serve:"${TAG}" \
/chk/parity_check.py > docker/parity_serve.json
echo "Parity check (train image):"
docker run --rm --gpus all --entrypoint python \
-v "$(pwd)/docker":/chk thesis-train:"${TAG}" \
/chk/parity_check.py > docker/parity_train.json
Before the first build, resolve the base digest by hand and paste it over REPLACE_WITH_RESOLVED_DIGEST in both Dockerfiles (run docker buildx imagetools inspect nvidia/cuda:12.8.0-runtime-ubuntu24.04 for the serve base and the -devel variant for train). build.sh does not resolve the digest for you, and with the placeholder still in place the build fails immediately on an unresolvable base. Then build and run it locally:
chmod +x docker/build.sh
TAG=local ./docker/build.sh
# build.sh writes two clean JSON files, docker/parity_serve.json and
# docker/parity_train.json, each a single JSON object ready for json.load.
What you should see
Two images build (thesis-serve:local and thesis-train:local), and each parity check prints a JSON block. On the baseline machine the interesting lines read something like "device_name": "NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5080", "device_capability": "12.0", an "arch_list" that includes both sm_90 and sm_120, and "matmul_ok": true. The "software_fingerprint" is a short hash of the Python/torch/arch fields only, so it is deliberately blind to which GPU ran it.
The point of the exercise is the next run, not this one. When I bring the same thesis-train image up on the rented H100 in the next chapter and run the identical parity_check.py, the device_name flips to "NVIDIA H100" and the capability to "9.0", and the driver version reads whatever Lambda ships (record it: measured on the rented H100, with date and driver). But the software_fingerprint must be byte-identical to the one I just wrote to docker/parity_train.json (the train image is the one I carry to the H100). If it is, the image did its job: I have changed and only . If it differs, I stop and rebuild before spending another rented minute, because I have lost the one guarantee that makes a burst result trustworthy. Keep docker/parity_serve.json and docker/parity_train.json next to the Dockerfiles; the one matching the image I burst is the reference the rented box gets compared against.
flowchart LR
L[uv.lock] --> IMG[image = f(base@digest, lock)]
B[base @ sha256] --> IMG
IMG --> LOCAL[run on RTX 5080<br/>host 570 driver]
IMG --> REMOTE[run on rented H100<br/>Lambda driver]
LOCAL --> FP1[software_fingerprint]
REMOTE --> FP2[software_fingerprint]
FP1 -. must match .- FP2
"Rent the GPU, not the bugs." The trap in cloud GPU work is that you are not just renting compute, you are inheriting a stranger's software stack, and every difference between their box and yours is a place your training run can silently diverge. The fix is to treat the whole environment as a content-addressed artifact: pin the base image by digest, build from a hashed lock file, ship the pair, and reduce the host to exactly one variable, the GPU. Then a five-line parity check that prints a software fingerprint on both machines turns "works on my machine" from a shrug into a falsifiable claim you verify before the meter starts. A short post on why the container, not the cloud console, is the real unit of reproducibility.
The Lambda workflow
The image from the last chapter is a frozen artifact; this chapter is about the perishable one, the rented instance, which starts costing money the instant it boots and does not stop until I destroy it. That single fact reorganizes everything. On the baseline machine a forgotten Jupyter kernel is a warm laptop; on a rented H100 it is a slow leak of dollars that runs all night while I sleep. So the Lambda workflow is not really about H100s. It is a discipline for working against a meter: boot late, sync fast, verify parity, run one thing, pull the artifacts back, and kill the box the moment the last byte is home.
Two constraints bound the whole workflow. The first is money, and it is handled by lifecycle discipline plus per-experiment cost logging. The second is the open-data boundary: this thesis is built so that only open data ever leaves my machine, and a rented box on someone else's network is precisely where that boundary is easiest to breach by accident. Both constraints resolve into checklists, because a checklist is what you follow when you are tired and the meter is running, which is exactly when good intentions fail.
The lab is one real fine-tune round-trip: boot, sync, run a short GRPO round on the H100, pull the adapter and metrics back, and terminate. The artifact is a burst runbook and its checklist, plus the pulled adapter and an MLflow run whose cost is logged in dollars.
Theory
The meter is always on
Lambda's on-demand GPU instances bill for wall-clock time from boot to termination, at a published per-GPU-hour rate (cite current Lambda price, $/GPU-hr, as of the run date). There is no partial credit for an idle GPU and, importantly, stopping is not the same as terminating: on most on-demand cloud GPU offerings a stopped-but-not-terminated instance either keeps billing or holds reserved capacity you are still paying for, and its attached storage bills regardless. The only state that costs nothing is "does not exist." So the mental model is not "turn it off when done," it is "destroy it when done, and rebuild from the image next time."
Let the on-demand rate be $rgt_0t_1t_{\text{setup}}t_{\text{pull}}t_{\text{sync}}t_{\text{run}}t_{\text{down}}t_{\text{run}}r = $3.00/\text{GPU-hr}g=13.00 \times 18/60 = $0.90t_{\text{run}}t_{\text{pull}}t_{\text{sync}}t_{\text{down}}$ to seconds. Record the real per-phase minutes on the rented H100 with date and driver; the ratio of overhead to run time is the single number that tells me whether bursting this job was worth it.
The open-data-only boundary
The thesis makes a promise: the pipeline can be reproduced from open weights and open datasets, and nothing that leaves my machine carries anything non-open. A rented instance is the highest-risk moment for that promise because I am pushing bytes to a third-party network. Three things could go wrong: I could push a dataset that is not actually open; I could push local artifacts (notes, .env files, private eval seeds) mixed in with the code; or I could pull back something the rented box synthesized from non-open inputs. The boundary is enforced by never letting non-open data near the sync in the first place, and by verifying provenance on the way out.
Concretely: weights come from an open model card (a pinned Hugging Face repo revision), datasets come from open dataset cards (again pinned by revision), and the only things I push from my machine are the container image (pure code, already scrubbed by .dockerignore) and, if anything, an open dataset I have already vetted. Everything with a provenance question mark stays home. The checklist in the lab makes this mechanical.
The failure modes here all share a shape: the meter is on while you debug the thing that should have been checked on the ground. A short list of the ones that have actually bitten people, each of which the checklist pre-empts.
- The forgotten instance. You get the adapter, close the laptop, and the H100 bills all weekend. Fix: teardown is a scripted step, not a mental note, and you confirm termination in the console before you walk away.
- Stopped, not terminated. You "stopped" it to save money; the attached volume (and possibly reserved capacity) keeps billing. Fix: terminate and destroy the volume; rebuild from the image next time.
- Sync-then-discover-the-bug. You
rsync40GB of weights, then find the training config is wrong. Fix: run the parity check and a 10-step smoke run before the full sync of anything large. - Provenance leak. A "just for testing" local file rides along in the rsync. Fix: sync from an explicit allowlist directory, never from
.or$HOME. - Egress surprise. Pulling large artifacts back can incur egress fees on some providers. Fix: pull only the adapter and metrics (megabytes), never full merged checkpoints (gigabytes) you can re-merge locally.
Why rsync, and what actually moves
The sync tool is rsync over SSH: it is delta-based (only changed blocks move), resumable, and it preserves the directory structure the container expects at /data. What moves to the box is deliberately small: the container image (or a registry pull), the training config, and any already-vetted open dataset not already on a public hub. What moves back is even smaller: the trained LoRA adapter (tens to low-hundreds of MB), the MLflow run directory, and logs. The base model weights never move back because I already have them, pinned by revision, and re-merging an adapter onto open weights is a local operation. Keeping the pull-back tiny is both a cost lever (less egress, less $t_{\text{down}}$) and a boundary lever (fewer bytes to audit for provenance).
Tooling
Lambda Cloud lifecycle, via CLI or console
Lambda exposes instances through a web console and a REST API (and community CLIs wrap the API). Whichever I use, the lifecycle verbs are the same: launch an instance of a named GPU type in a region with an SSH key; list to get its IP and state; terminate to destroy it. The discipline is to script launch and terminate so that "boot" and "kill" are one command each and neither depends on me clicking carefully through a console while tired. I keep the instance ID in a file the teardown script reads, so terminate is not something I can fat-finger.
The one manual step that stays manual is the confirmation of termination: after the script reports the instance destroyed, I re-list and confirm it is gone, because the most expensive bug in this whole workflow is believing a box is dead when it is not.
MLflow as the cost ledger
MLflow already tracks every run's git SHA, lock hash, driver, and metrics (Part 0 set that up). For burst runs I add cost as first-class logged data: the per-GPU-hour rate, GPU count, billable minutes, and the derived dollar cost, all logged as MLflow params and metrics on the same run that holds the training curves. This means "what did this experiment cost" is answerable by querying MLflow, not by reconciling a cloud invoice a month later. The rate is a parameter I pass in (from the current Lambda price on the run date), and the billable minutes come from timestamps the runbook records at boot and teardown.
"""Log burst cost to the active MLflow run.
Cost is wall-clock, not GPU-busy time: the meter bills boot-to-terminate.
Rate is passed in from the current Lambda on-demand price on the run date.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import datetime as dt
import mlflow
def log_burst_cost(
*,
rate_per_gpu_hr: float, # cite current Lambda price, $/GPU-hr, run date
gpu_count: int,
boot_utc_iso: str, # recorded by the runbook at instance boot
teardown_utc_iso: str, # recorded by the runbook at terminate
provider: str = "lambda",
instance_type: str = "gpu_1x_h100",
) -> float:
boot = dt.datetime.fromisoformat(boot_utc_iso)
down = dt.datetime.fromisoformat(teardown_utc_iso)
billable_hours = (down - boot).total_seconds() / 3600.0
cost = rate_per_gpu_hr * gpu_count * billable_hours
mlflow.log_params({
"burst_provider": provider,
"burst_instance_type": instance_type,
"burst_gpu_count": gpu_count,
"burst_rate_per_gpu_hr_usd": rate_per_gpu_hr,
"burst_boot_utc": boot_utc_iso,
"burst_teardown_utc": teardown_utc_iso,
})
mlflow.log_metrics({
"burst_billable_hours": round(billable_hours, 4),
"burst_cost_usd": round(cost, 4),
})
return cost
Lab: one real H100 fine-tune round-trip
The artifact is a burst runbook (burst/runbook.sh) with an embedded checklist, plus the pulled adapter and an MLflow run carrying its dollar cost. The run itself is a short GRPO round on a 7-8B model, sized properly in the next chapter; here the point is the round-trip discipline, not the training science.
The pre-flight checklist
I keep this as a comment block at the top of the runbook and read it top to bottom before every burst. It is boring on purpose.
BURST PRE-FLIGHT (read before boot; the meter starts at boot)
[ ] Image built and pushed/loadable; software_fingerprint recorded locally
[ ] Base model pinned by HF revision (open model card)
[ ] Dataset pinned by HF revision (open dataset card), provenance = OPEN
[ ] Sync source is an explicit allowlist dir, never "." or $HOME
[ ] Lambda price for the day recorded: ______ $/GPU-hr (as of run date)
[ ] SSH key + instance-id file path set
[ ] Teardown script tested (dry run) BEFORE launch
ON THE BOX (minimize idle GPU time)
[ ] nvidia-smi: record driver version + GPU name
[ ] parity_check.py: software_fingerprint MATCHES local reference
[ ] 10-step smoke run OK before full data sync / full run
ON THE WAY OUT (small + audited)
[ ] Pull back ONLY: adapter + mlruns + logs (megabytes)
[ ] Verify no non-open bytes were pushed (git status of sync dir)
[ ] Record teardown timestamp
[ ] TERMINATE instance; re-list console to CONFIRM it is gone
[ ] log_burst_cost() -> MLflow; sanity-check $ against expected
The runbook
#!/usr/bin/env bash
set -euo pipefail
# ---- config (edit per run) -------------------------------------------------
: "${REMOTE:?set REMOTE=ubuntu@<instance-ip>}" # from lambda list
SSH_KEY="${SSH_KEY:?set SSH_KEY=path to private key}"
INSTANCE_ID="${INSTANCE_ID:?set INSTANCE_ID for teardown}"
RATE="${RATE:?set RATE= current Lambda price $/GPU-hr on the run date}"
GPUS="${GPUS:-1}"
SYNC_SRC="burst/payload" # ALLOWLIST dir: only vetted, open bytes go here
IMAGE="thesis-train:local" # built in the previous chapter
SSH="ssh -i ${SSH_KEY} -o StrictHostKeyChecking=accept-new ${REMOTE}"
RS="rsync -avz -e 'ssh -i ${SSH_KEY}'"
# BOOT_UTC must be the INSTANCE LAUNCH time (when the meter starts), not now:
# the box is already booted by the time this runbook runs, so recording `date`
# here undercounts billed time by the boot + SSH-wait interval. Capture it at
# launch (from the lambda launch response / console) and pass it in; the
# fallback below is only for when you truly launched seconds ago.
BOOT_UTC="${BOOT_UTC:-$(date -u +%FT%T)}"; echo "BOOT_UTC=${BOOT_UTC}"
# ---- 1. verify plumbing + parity BEFORE moving anything large --------------
$SSH 'nvidia-smi --query-gpu=name,driver_version --format=csv,noheader'
# Ship the built image to the box: save -> ssh -> load. (Or push to a registry
# and `docker pull` on the box; save/load needs no registry.) The remote
# docker run below cannot execute until the image actually exists on the box.
docker save "${IMAGE}" | $SSH docker load
eval $RS docker/parity_check.py "${REMOTE}:~/parity_check.py"
# --entrypoint python OVERRIDES the image ENTRYPOINT (python -m train.run);
# without it the parity args just append and the script never runs.
$SSH "docker run --rm --gpus all --entrypoint python -v ~/:/chk ${IMAGE} /chk/parity_check.py" \
| tee burst/parity_remote.json
# Fail loud if the software fingerprint drifted from the local reference.
python - <<'PY'
import json, sys
loc = json.load(open("docker/parity_train.json"))["software_fingerprint"]
rem = json.load(open("burst/parity_remote.json"))["software_fingerprint"]
print(f"local fingerprint: {loc}")
print(f"remote fingerprint: {rem}")
if loc != rem:
sys.exit(f"FINGERPRINT DRIFT: local {loc} != remote {rem}; run is void.")
print("fingerprints match; proceeding.")
PY
# ---- 2. sync ONLY the allowlist payload (open data + config) ---------------
test -d "${SYNC_SRC}" || { echo "no payload dir; refusing to sync \$HOME"; exit 1; }
eval $RS "${SYNC_SRC}/" "${REMOTE}:~/payload/"
# ---- 3. smoke run (10 steps) then the real short GRPO round ----------------
$SSH "docker run --rm --gpus all -v ~/payload:/data ${IMAGE} \
--config /data/config.yaml --max-steps 10 --smoke"
$SSH "docker run --rm --gpus all -v ~/payload:/data ${IMAGE} \
--config /data/config.yaml"
# ---- 4. pull back ONLY small artifacts (adapter + metrics + logs) ----------
eval $RS "${REMOTE}:~/payload/out/adapter/" "burst/pulled/adapter/"
eval $RS "${REMOTE}:~/payload/out/mlruns/" "burst/pulled/mlruns/"
# ---- 5. teardown (SCRIPTED), then CONFIRM, then log cost -------------------
TEARDOWN_UTC="$(date -u +%FT%T)"; echo "TEARDOWN_UTC=${TEARDOWN_UTC}"
# Terminate is ONE scripted call against INSTANCE_ID, never a manual note:
# a box you forgot to kill bills all weekend. Lambda Cloud terminate endpoint.
: "${LAMBDA_API_KEY:?set LAMBDA_API_KEY for the terminate call}"
curl -sf -u "${LAMBDA_API_KEY}:" \
https://cloud.lambdalabs.com/api/v1/instance-operations/terminate \
-H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-d "{\"instance_ids\": [\"${INSTANCE_ID}\"]}" \
&& echo "terminate requested for ${INSTANCE_ID}"
# Confirm it is actually gone: re-list and fail if the instance is still alive.
curl -sf -u "${LAMBDA_API_KEY}:" https://cloud.lambdalabs.com/api/v1/instances \
| python -c "import json,sys; alive=[i for i in json.load(sys.stdin)['data'] if i['id']=='${INSTANCE_ID}' and i.get('status')!='terminated']; sys.exit('STILL ALIVE: ${INSTANCE_ID}, check the console' if alive else 0)" \
&& echo "confirmed gone: ${INSTANCE_ID}"
python - "$RATE" "$GPUS" "$BOOT_UTC" "$TEARDOWN_UTC" <<'PY'
import sys, mlflow
sys.path.insert(0, "train/src")
from train.cost import log_burst_cost
rate, gpus, boot, down = float(sys.argv[1]), int(sys.argv[2]), sys.argv[3], sys.argv[4]
mlflow.set_tracking_uri("file:burst/pulled/mlruns")
with mlflow.start_run(run_name="burst-cost"):
c = log_burst_cost(rate_per_gpu_hr=rate, gpu_count=gpus,
boot_utc_iso=boot, teardown_utc_iso=down)
print(f"logged burst cost: ${c:.2f} "
f"(rate ${rate}/GPU-hr x {gpus} GPU x wall-clock)")
PY
What you should see
By the end of one round-trip there are three things on my local disk: burst/pulled/adapter/ holding a LoRA adapter trained on the H100, burst/pulled/mlruns/ holding an MLflow run whose curves came off the rented box, and burst/parity_remote.json whose software_fingerprint matches the local reference from the previous chapter (if it does not, the run is void and I say so). The MLflow run carries a burst_cost_usd metric computed from the boot and teardown timestamps and the day's rate, so the answer to "what did this experiment cost" is a number in the tracker, not a guess: on the rented H100, record the actual billable minutes, the rate used, and the resulting dollars, with date and driver. The instance itself should no longer exist, confirmed by a fresh list returning nothing, which is the only proof that the meter has stopped. If I sum the per-phase minutes from the runbook's timestamps, the overhead-to-run ratio from the cost derivation becomes concrete, and it is the number I carry into the next chapter to decide whether this job should have been bursted at all.
flowchart LR
A[Pre-flight checklist] --> B[BOOT, meter starts]
B --> C[nvidia-smi + parity check]
C --> D{fingerprint matches?}
D -- no --> K[TERMINATE, void run]
D -- yes --> E[sync allowlist payload]
E --> F[10-step smoke]
F --> G[short GRPO round]
G --> H[pull adapter + mlruns only]
H --> I[TERMINATE + confirm gone]
I --> J[log_burst_cost to MLflow]
Lambert's infrastructure chapter frames RLHF/post-training as an engineering problem where the cost is dominated by generation and the orchestration of separate serving and training processes, not by the gradient step alone. Read it alongside this chapter for the systems framing: it justifies why serve/ and train/ stay separate processes even on one rented box (the trainer consumes rollouts the server produces), and why "the meter is always on" is really a statement about keeping expensive accelerators busy with the phase that matters. His notes on the practical messiness of distributed RLHF infra are the reason my burst discipline is a checklist and not a diagram.
"The meter is always on." Renting an H100 changes your engineering psychology more than it changes your code: every idle second is billed at the same rate as every training second, so the enemy stops being slow math and becomes wasted wall-clock. The counterintuitive lesson is that most of what makes cloud GPU work cheap has nothing to do with the GPU, it is prebuilt images so you do not pull for ten minutes, staged open data so you do not sync for twenty, and a scripted teardown so a forgotten box does not bill all weekend. A post on treating a rented accelerator like a stopwatch you are racing, with a five-item checklist that has saved more money than any kernel optimization.
When to burst
The previous two chapters were about how to burst: build the image, rent the box, keep the meter honest. This one is about whether to, which is the more important question and the one it is easiest to answer with your gut instead of arithmetic. The gut says "the H100 is faster, so use the H100." The arithmetic says something more useful: bursting is only rational when a job either does not fit on the 16GB card at all, or fits but would take so long locally that the deadline (not the dollar) forces your hand. Most jobs are neither, and the discipline of this chapter is knowing which is which before I spend a cent.
There is a real asymmetry to respect. The RTX 5080 is already paid for; its marginal cost per hour is electricity, call it pennies. The H100 costs its full on-demand rate per hour whether or not I am using it well. So local hours are nearly free and slow; rented hours are expensive and fast. The decision is never "which is better," it is "for this job, does the speedup buy back enough to justify the rate, given when I need the result." That is a break-even calculation, and once it is written down the answer is usually obvious.
The chapter builds that break-even model, sizes a 7-8B GRPO run on an H100 so I know what actually fits and why, and covers DDP and FSDP at reading level so the multi-GPU vocabulary is in place for the post-contract rig even though today's burst is a single H100.
Theory
Three reasons to burst, only two of them good
Strip the decision down. There are exactly three reasons a job leaves the baseline machine.
- It does not fit. The model, its optimizer state, the KV cache for the rollouts, and the activations do not fit in 16GB even at the most aggressive quantization and offload I am willing to accept. This is a capability reason and it is unarguable: no amount of patience on the 5080 produces the result. A full 7-8B GRPO run with unquantized rollouts is the canonical example.
- It fits but the deadline says no. The job would run locally, but the wall-clock time exceeds the time I have before a committee meeting, a Substack deadline, or my own patience threshold. This is a time reason and it is legitimate, but only after I have priced it.
- The H100 is shiny. No.
The first two are the real gate. Everything below is machinery for deciding, in case (2), whether the deadline is worth the rate, and for confirming, in case (1), that the job genuinely does not fit rather than that I gave up on offload too early.
The break-even model
The core comparison is between doing the job locally for nearly free but slowly, and renting for a price but quickly. Let me define the quantities and then find the point where renting starts to make sense.
Let a job require units of work (say, training steps, or token-generations for the rollouts). Define:
- = local throughput on the 5080 (work per hour), and = throughput on the rented H100.
- = rented rate in dollars per GPU-hour (cite current Lambda price, gp_L/kWhDT_L = W / s_LC_L = p_L \cdot T_LT_R = W / (s_R \cdot g) + t_{\text{ovh}}t_{\text{ovh}}C_R = r \cdot g \cdot T_Rs_L = 0T_L = \inftyT_L \le DT_LT_RDT_L\Delta CW = 1T_L = 30D = 12T_R = 6t_{\text{ovh}} = 0.5r = $3.00/\text{GPU-hr}g = 1p_L \approx $0.10/\text{h} \times 30,\text{h} = $3.00\Delta C \approx $15T_L - T_R = 30 - 6 = 24T_L - DDs_R$ from the rented H100 (record value, date, driver) before trusting any absolute number here.
The model's punchline is the ordering of the gates. Feasibility first: does it fit. Then deadline: does local miss it. Only if both point to renting do I look at the dollar delta, and even then the delta is a decision input, not a verdict. The most common correct answer, for the small experiments that make up most of a thesis, is "run it locally overnight for free."
Sizing a 7-8B GRPO run on an H100
The clearest "does not fit" case is a full-precision GRPO run on a 7-8B model, so it is worth knowing what such a run needs, both to justify the burst and to size the instance. GRPO's memory footprint has an extra term that plain fine-tuning does not: it generates a group of rollouts per prompt and scores them, so a serving-shaped generation cost sits next to the training cost.
Take a 7.6B-parameter model as the example and account the big terms in bytes. The exact coefficients depend on optimizer and offload choices; this is the order-of-magnitude budget that tells me a single H100's 80GB is comfortable and the 5080's 16GB is not.
- Weights (BF16): $7.6\times10^{9} \times 2,\text{byte} \approx 15.2,\text{GB}\approx 15.2,\text{GB}\approx 127.6\times10^{9}\times 12 \approx 91,\text{GB}91,\text{GB}\approx 7.6\times10^{9}\times0.55 \approx 4.2,\text{GB}15.2,\text{GB}G\times\times\times\times\timesG = 8G$, shorten the context, and offload. Every one of those is a compromise the H100 lets me drop. So bursting a GRPO run is not just "faster," it is "the version of the experiment without the compromises," which is sometimes the only version worth putting in front of a committee.
DDP and FSDP at reading level
Today's burst is one H100 and needs neither of these, but the post-contract rig (the one I would buy if the thesis turns into something) is multi-GPU, and the vocabulary should be in place. Two ideas cover most of it.
DDP, Distributed Data Parallel, puts a full copy of the model on every GPU and gives each GPU a different slice of the batch. Each computes gradients on its slice, then all GPUs average their gradients (an all-reduce) so every copy takes the same step. DDP is simple and fast and scales throughput almost linearly, but it does nothing for memory: if the model plus optimizer state does not fit on one GPU, DDP does not help, because every GPU still holds the whole thing. DDP is the answer to "it fits, I just want it faster."
FSDP, Fully Sharded Data Parallel, attacks memory instead. It shards the parameters, gradients, and optimizer state across GPUs so no single GPU holds the full set. When a layer is needed for the forward or backward pass, its shard is gathered just-in-time from the other GPUs, used, then released. This trades communication for memory: you can fit models far larger than one GPU's RAM, at the cost of more inter-GPU traffic. FSDP (and ZeRO, its conceptual sibling) is the answer to "it does not fit on one GPU at all."
The two are answers to different questions and mixing them up wastes money. DDP does not lower per-GPU memory, so renting a 2x or 4x instance with DDP to fit a model that overflows one GPU will not work, since every GPU still needs the whole model. FSDP lowers per-GPU memory but adds communication overhead, so using it when a single GPU already fits the model is paying a bandwidth tax for nothing. On a single rented H100, neither applies: it is one GPU, and the levers are quantization, LoRA, batch size, and group size, exactly as on the 5080 but with 5x the headroom. Reach for DDP/FSDP only when the instance actually has multiple GPUs and you have decided which problem, speed or fit, you are solving.
Tooling
The tool here is the break-even model itself, made runnable so the decision is a script, not a mood. It takes the job's parameters and today's Lambda rate and prints the two gates and, if both fire, the dollar delta. It deliberately refuses to recommend renting when local makes the deadline, because that is the discipline the whole chapter is defending.
"""Decide whether to burst, by the two-gate model.
Feasibility first (does it fit locally at all), then deadline (does local
miss it). Only if both point to renting do we price the delta. Throughputs
are inputs you measure; the Lambda rate is the current price on the run date.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
from dataclasses import dataclass
@dataclass
class Job:
work: float # abstract units (e.g. runs, or step-count)
s_local: float # local throughput (work/hour); 0.0 => does NOT fit
s_rented: float # rented per-GPU throughput (work/hour)
deadline_h: float # hours from now until the result is needed
rate_per_gpu_hr: float # cite current Lambda price, $/GPU-hr, run date
gpus: int = 1
overhead_h: float = 0.5 # boot+sync+teardown from the runbook
local_power_usd_h: float = 0.10 # 5080 board draw x local $/kWh
def decide(j: Job) -> None:
# Gate 1: feasibility.
if j.s_local <= 0.0:
t_r = j.work / (j.s_rented * j.gpus) + j.overhead_h
c_r = j.rate_per_gpu_hr * j.gpus * t_r
print("GATE 1: does NOT fit locally -> BURST (no local option).")
print(f" rented wall-clock ~ {t_r:.2f} h, cost ~ ${c_r:.2f}")
return
t_l = j.work / j.s_local
c_l = j.local_power_usd_h * t_l
print(f"GATE 1: fits locally. local wall-clock ~ {t_l:.2f} h, "
f"cost ~ ${c_l:.2f} (electricity).")
# Gate 2: deadline.
if t_l <= j.deadline_h:
print(f"GATE 2: local MAKES the deadline ({t_l:.2f} h <= "
f"{j.deadline_h:.2f} h) -> RUN LOCAL. Renting is waste.")
return
t_r = j.work / (j.s_rented * j.gpus) + j.overhead_h
c_r = j.rate_per_gpu_hr * j.gpus * t_r
print(f"GATE 2: local MISSES the deadline ({t_l:.2f} h > "
f"{j.deadline_h:.2f} h).")
if t_r > j.deadline_h:
print(f" ...but rented also misses ({t_r:.2f} h). Rethink scope, "
f"not hardware.")
return
print(f" rented makes it: {t_r:.2f} h <= {j.deadline_h:.2f} h.")
print(f" price of the deadline: dC ~ ${c_r - c_l:.2f} "
f"to save {t_l - t_r:.2f} h. Is that worth it? (judgment)")
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--work", type=float, default=1.0)
ap.add_argument("--s-local", type=float, required=True,
help="0 means it does not fit locally")
ap.add_argument("--s-rented", type=float, default=5.0)
ap.add_argument("--deadline-h", type=float, required=True)
ap.add_argument("--rate", type=float, required=True,
help="current Lambda $/GPU-hr on the run date")
ap.add_argument("--gpus", type=int, default=1)
a = ap.parse_args()
decide(Job(a.work, a.s_local, a.s_rented, a.deadline_h, a.rate, a.gpus))
Lab: run the decision for a real job
The artifact is a small decision record on disk: the parameters of an actual candidate job, the model's verdict, and my one-line rationale, saved next to the burst runbook so the "why did I rent" question has a written answer months later.
Three candidate jobs
# Use the REAL current Lambda rate for --rate (cite $/GPU-hr as of the run date).
RATE=3.00 # placeholder; replace with the day's price
# A) Small GRPO smoke experiment: fits locally, 3h, deadline 24h.
uv run python burst/should_i_burst.py \
--work 1 --s-local 0.33 --s-rented 2.0 --deadline-h 24 --rate $RATE
# expect: GATE 2 -> RUN LOCAL (3h <= 24h). Renting is waste.
# B) Full 7-8B GRPO, real group, BF16 rollouts: does NOT fit 16GB.
uv run python burst/should_i_burst.py \
--work 1 --s-local 0 --s-rented 0.17 --deadline-h 48 --rate $RATE
# expect: GATE 1 -> BURST (no local option).
# C) Big local job that misses a hard deadline: fits but 30h vs 12h.
uv run python burst/should_i_burst.py \
--work 1 --s-local 0.033 --s-rented 0.17 --deadline-h 12 --rate $RATE
# expect: GATE 2 -> local misses; rented makes it; prints dC to decide.
The decision record
# Burst decision: full 7-8B GRPO, real group
Job: Qwen 7-8B, GRPO, G=8, BF16 rollouts, ~2-4k ctx
Gate 1: does NOT fit 16GB at real group/precision (see sizing budget)
Gate 2: n/a (feasibility already forces the burst)
Verdict: BURST, single H100 (80GB), QLoRA base, full group
Instance: gpu_1x_h100
Rate used: <cite current Lambda $/GPU-hr, run date>
Expected: run wall-clock T_R = ____ h + overhead ____ h (fill from runbook)
Measured: peak VRAM ____ GB, run ____ h, cost $____ (H100; date; driver)
Rationale: this is the no-compromise version of the Part VII experiment;
the 16GB card can only do the shrunk-down version, which is not
what goes in front of the committee.
What you should see
Running the three candidates prints three different verdicts from the same script, and that variety is the whole point: (A) fits and makes its deadline, so the tool refuses to rent and I run it overnight for pennies; (B) does not fit at all, so Gate 1 forces the burst with no dollar argument needed; (C) fits but misses a hard deadline, so the tool prints the dollar delta and hands the judgment back to me. The artifact on disk is burst/decisions/2026-07-22-full-grpo.md, a decision record whose "Expected" line I fill from the model before booting and whose "Measured" line I fill from the H100 afterward (peak VRAM, run hours, dollars, with date and driver). Months later, when I or the committee ask "why did this one experiment cost $18 when everything else was free," the answer is a file, not a memory: it did not fit on the 5080, here is the sizing budget that proves it, and here is what it actually cost. That written trail is what keeps the burst honest, and it is the reason the decision lives in a script and a record rather than in the moment's enthusiasm for a faster GPU.
flowchart TD
A[Candidate job] --> B{Fits on 16GB 5080?}
B -- no --> BURST[BURST: capability reason]
B -- yes --> C{Local wall-clock <= deadline?}
C -- yes --> LOCAL[RUN LOCAL: nearly free]
C -- no --> D{Rented makes the deadline?}
D -- no --> E[Rethink scope, not hardware]
D -- yes --> F[Price dC; judge if worth it]
Lambert's infra chapter is the reading-level companion to this one. It lays out why post-training compute is dominated by generation (the rollouts), which is exactly the term that makes GRPO's memory budget balloon past 16GB and forces the burst, the KV-cache-for-a-group cost I sized above is his "generation dominates" observation in bytes. His treatment of data-parallel versus sharded training is the conceptual source for the DDP-vs-FSDP split here: DDP for throughput when it fits, sharding for fit when it does not. Read it to connect the cost model of this chapter (when renting is rational) to the systems reality of the last two (why serving and training stay separate processes, and why keeping the accelerator busy is the whole game).
"When NOT to rent the H100." The honest version of a cloud-GPU post is mostly a list of times you should keep your laptop closed and let the cheap card grind overnight. Bursting is rational in exactly two cases, the job does not fit at all, or it fits but misses a hard deadline, and everything else is paying premium rates for speed you do not need. The useful artifact is a two-gate decision script that refuses to recommend renting when your own machine makes the deadline, plus a memory-budget back-of-envelope that shows precisely why a full-group GRPO run on a 7-8B model overflows 16GB but sits comfortably on an 80GB H100. A post that reframes cloud GPUs from "faster is better" to "faster is a purchase, and here is how to know if you should make it."
From logs to figures
Every run in this book left a trail in MLflow. Every claim I want to make in the thesis, in the Substack series, or to my future self, has to come back out of that trail as a figure I can regenerate on demand. This chapter is about the join between those two facts: how I get from an MLflow export to a PNG that goes in a chapter, and how I make sure that PNG is never a one-off I can't reproduce.
The rule I'm defending here is simple to state and annoying to live by: no figure ships unless a script makes it from logged data. No hand-tuned axes in a notebook that I closed three weeks ago. No screenshot of the MLflow UI. If a reviewer asks "where did this number come from," the honest answer is a file path and a git commit, not my memory.
Open the book repo alongside this chapter. Everything here lands in two places: figures/ for the scripts that make plots, and book/src/**/img/ for the PNGs the chapters embed. If you built the loop from Part VII, you already have MLflow runs to export. If not, the lab below ships a tiny synthetic export so the pipeline runs with zero GPU. All timings and file sizes I quote as "(measured on the baseline machine)" are placeholders you fill in on your own MSI Aegis R2 (RTX 5080 16GB, Ubuntu 24.04) with the value, the date, and the driver version, because there is no GPU where I'm writing this and I refuse to invent measured numbers.
Theory
Why the export, not the store
MLflow is a database plus an artifact store. It is a great place to write runs and a bad place to read them for publication. The tracking store schema changes across MLflow versions, the SQLite or Postgres backend is a moving target, and a figure script that queries the live store couples my thesis figures to whatever state my tracking server happens to be in on the day I build the book. That coupling is exactly the reproducibility hole I'm trying to close.
So I put a boundary in the middle. On one side, runs flow into MLflow during experiments. On the other side, figures are made only from a frozen, flat export: Parquet files (or CSV, if I want them human-diffable) that snapshot the runs and metrics I care about. The export is an artifact with a date and a hash. Figures are a pure function of that artifact. This is the same discipline as separating raw data from derived data in any analysis pipeline, and it buys the same thing: I can delete my MLflow server, restore it from backup six months later with a different schema, and my figures still build because they never touched it.
flowchart LR A[MLflow tracking store] -->|export_runs.py| B[(runs.parquet\nmetrics.parquet)] B -->|make_*.py| C[figure PNG/SVG] C --> D[book/src/**/img/] B -.frozen, hashed.-> E[repro package]
The arrow that matters is the dashed one. The frozen export is what goes into the reproducibility package in chapter 9.3. The live store does not.
The shape of an MLflow export
MLflow's data model is runs and, under each run, three kinds of logged things: params (set once, strings), metrics (time series, floats with a step and a timestamp), and tags (mutable strings). When I flatten that for analysis I get two tables that cover almost everything I plot.
The first is a runs table: one row per run, wide, with columns for run_id, experiment, the params I set (model, learning rate, task suite version), the seed (which the 0.6 logging schema records as a tag, not a param, so the export has to lift it out of the tags explicitly), and the final value of each metric. This is the table I use for anything comparative: bar charts across seeds, before/after deltas, ablation grids. One row per run keeps the pandas easy and the joins obvious.
The second is a metrics table: long, one row per (run_id, metric, step, value, timestamp). This is what I use for anything that moves over training: reward curves, KL over steps, eval accuracy across checkpoints. Long format is non-negotiable here because it is what seaborn and matplotlib group over cleanly, and because it survives adding a new metric without a schema change.
The mental model: runs table is wide and describes what a run was, metrics table is long and describes what a run did over time. Almost every figure in this book is a groupby-and-reduce on one of those two tables.
Tidy data, one more time
The reason I insist on long-format metrics is the same reason Hadley Wickham insisted on tidy data: each variable is a column, each observation is a row, each type of observational unit is a table. When metrics are tidy, "plot reward vs step, one line per seed, faceted by task" is a single groupby(["task","seed"]) and a loop, not a wrangling project. When they're wide (one column per step), every new run reshapes the table and every plot is bespoke. I pay the reshape cost once, at export time, and never again.
Determinism in the plot layer
A figure script has to be deterministic in two ways. First, given the same export it must produce byte-stable or near-byte-stable output, so that git diff on a regenerated figure is empty when nothing changed. That means fixing the matplotlib backend to a non-interactive one (Agg), setting a fixed DPI, and not letting anything depend on wall-clock time or dict ordering. Second, any sampling or jitter in the plot (say, a strip plot of per-item scores) has to be seeded. I set a NumPy seed at the top of every figure script for exactly this reason. A figure that shuffles differently each build is a figure that produces spurious diffs and erodes trust in the whole pipeline.
Tooling
pandas conventions over exports
A few conventions do most of the work. I load Parquet, not CSV, for anything with more than a few thousand rows, because Parquet preserves dtypes (I don't want seed silently becoming a float) and loads faster (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver). I keep CSV around only for the small summary tables that I also want to eyeball in a diff.
I set explicit dtypes on the categorical columns: model, task, variant become pandas category, and seed stays an int. Categoricals give me stable, controllable ordering in plots (I decide the order once via set_categories, not alphabetically by accident) and they make groupbys cheaper.
I never plot off an un-aggregated frame. Every figure function takes a tidy frame and does its own explicit groupby(...).agg(...) with named aggregations, so the reduction is visible in the code and not hidden in a plotting library's defaults. If I'm showing a mean, I compute the mean and the standard error in the same aggregation, so the error bars come from the same code path as the point.
A matplotlib house style
I want every figure in the book to look like it came from the same person, because it did. Rather than restyle each plot, I ship one style module that sets rcParams once and a small palette that's colorblind-safe. The house style is boring on purpose: a clean sans font, a light grid on the y-axis only, no top or right spine, a fixed figure size and DPI, and a fixed categorical color order so that "seed 0" is the same color in every chapter it appears.
The palette is Paul Tol's colorblind-safe qualitative set, because roughly 1 in 12 men have some form of color vision deficiency (source: standard prevalence figures for red-green CVD in populations of European descent, ~8%), and a thesis committee or a Substack reader should never have to guess which line is which. I encode a second channel (line style or marker) whenever color carries meaning, so the figure survives being printed in grayscale.
matplotlib caches its font list and its rcParams process-wide. If you set the house style in one place and then a stray seaborn.set_theme() runs later, seaborn silently stomps your rcParams and your "house style" figures come out looking like default seaborn. Fix: apply the house style inside each figure function via a context manager (with plt.style.context(...) or plt.rc_context(...)), not once at import. That way no import-order accident can change how a figure looks, and two figures built in the same process can't contaminate each other.
One script per figure, one figure per script
The unit of work is a script named for the figure it makes: make_reward_curve.py makes reward_curve.png. It reads the frozen export, builds exactly one figure (or one small family of closely related panels), writes the PNG and an SVG next to it, and writes a tiny sidecar JSON recording the export hash and the git commit it ran under. That sidecar is what lets me answer "is this figure stale?" mechanically: if the export hash in the sidecar doesn't match the current export, the figure is out of date and CI can say so.
A Makefile (or a figures/build_all.py driver) ties them together so make figures rebuilds everything. The driver is dumb on purpose: glob the make_*.py scripts, run each, fail loudly if any script errors. No figure is special; adding one is dropping a make_*.py file in the directory.
Lab
The artifact is the figure pipeline itself: a script that turns an MLflow export into the book's figures, plus the house style, plus a driver. It runs with no GPU. I ship a synthetic export generator so you can run the whole thing today, then swap in your real export when you have runs.
Set up the project
# From the repo root. uv everywhere, never bare pip or venv.
uv init figures --package
cd figures
uv add pandas pyarrow matplotlib numpy mlflow
# mlflow is only needed by export_runs.py (the online step).
# The figure scripts themselves depend only on pandas + matplotlib + numpy,
# so they run in CI without a tracking server.
The online step: export runs from MLflow
This is the only script that talks to the live tracking store. It runs on the baseline machine, where MLflow lives, and writes the frozen export. Everything downstream reads that export and never touches MLflow again.
"""Freeze an MLflow experiment into flat Parquet tables.
This is the ONLY script that reads the live MLflow store. Run it on the
machine where MLflow lives; commit its Parquet output (or archive it to the
NAS per chapter 9.3). Figures are a pure function of this output.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import hashlib
import json
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from pathlib import Path
import mlflow
import pandas as pd
def export(experiment: str, tracking_uri: str, out_dir: Path) -> None:
mlflow.set_tracking_uri(tracking_uri)
exp = mlflow.get_experiment_by_name(experiment)
if exp is None:
raise SystemExit(f"no experiment named {experiment!r} at {tracking_uri}")
client = mlflow.tracking.MlflowClient()
runs = mlflow.search_runs(experiment_ids=[exp.experiment_id])
# --- runs table: one wide row per run (params + final metric values) ---
# Flatten params.* and metrics.* to bare names. Drop tags.* EXCEPT the ones
# the figures and provenance need: per the 0.6 logging schema `seed` is a
# TAG (not a param), and the git SHA + driver are tags too. If we dropped
# every tag, make_delta_plot.py's sort_values("seed") would KeyError.
runs = runs.rename(columns=lambda c: c.replace("params.", "").replace("metrics.", ""))
keep_tags = {
"tags.seed": "seed",
"tags.git_sha": "git_sha",
"tags.driver_version": "driver_version",
}
runs = runs.rename(columns={k: v for k, v in keep_tags.items() if k in runs.columns})
if "seed" in runs.columns:
runs["seed"] = runs["seed"].astype(int) # tags are strings; figures want int
runs_cols = [c for c in runs.columns if not c.startswith("tags.")]
runs_table = runs[runs_cols].copy()
# NOTE: search_runs() yields `experiment_id`, not `experiment` (map it back
# from exp.name if you want the human name). And a pre/post design often
# logs baseline and post as nested CHILD runs under one parent, so
# eval_acc_baseline / eval_acc_final may land on separate rows and need a
# reshape (pivot on the parent run id) into the one-row-per-run wide form
# the delta figure expects.
# --- metrics table: long history, one row per (run, metric, step) ---
long_rows = []
for run_id in runs["run_id"]:
for metric in client.get_run(run_id).data.metrics:
for m in client.get_metric_history(run_id, metric):
long_rows.append(
{
"run_id": run_id,
"metric": metric,
"step": m.step,
"value": m.value,
"timestamp": m.timestamp,
}
)
metrics_table = pd.DataFrame(long_rows)
out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
runs_path = out_dir / "runs.parquet"
metrics_path = out_dir / "metrics.parquet"
runs_table.to_parquet(runs_path, index=False)
metrics_table.to_parquet(metrics_path, index=False)
# --- provenance sidecar: hash + when + what ---
digest = hashlib.sha256()
for p in (runs_path, metrics_path):
digest.update(p.read_bytes())
manifest = {
"experiment": experiment,
"tracking_uri": tracking_uri,
"exported_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
"n_runs": int(len(runs_table)),
"n_metric_points": int(len(metrics_table)),
"export_sha256": digest.hexdigest(),
"mlflow_version": mlflow.__version__,
}
(out_dir / "export_manifest.json").write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
print(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2))
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--experiment", required=True)
ap.add_argument("--tracking-uri", default="http://127.0.0.1:5000")
ap.add_argument("--out", type=Path, default=Path("export"))
a = ap.parse_args()
export(a.experiment, a.tracking_uri, a.out)
The offline synthetic export (so the lab runs with no GPU)
If you don't have runs yet, generate a stand-in export with the same schema. This lets you exercise the whole figure pipeline today, then delete it and point at the real export later.
"""Write a synthetic export with the real schema, for GPU-free testing.
Delete this once you have a real export from export_runs.py. This mirrors the
POST-export schema: `seed` is a plain int column here because export_runs.py
lifts it out of the MLflow tags (where the 0.6 schema logs it) into a column,
so from the figure scripts' point of view the two exports look the same.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import hashlib
import json
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
RNG = np.random.default_rng(0) # seeded: synthetic data must be reproducible too
def main(out_dir: Path = Path("export")) -> None:
seeds = [0, 1, 2]
tasks = ["gsm8k_sub", "math_sub", "logic_sub"]
steps = np.arange(0, 500, 25)
runs, metrics = [], []
for seed in seeds:
run_id = f"run_{seed:03d}"
base = 0.42 + 0.02 * seed
gain = 0.11 - 0.01 * seed
runs.append(
{
"run_id": run_id,
"experiment": "grpo_loop",
"model": "qwen2.5-3b",
"variant": "grpo",
"seed": seed,
"learning_rate": 1e-6,
"task_suite_version": "v1.2.0",
"eval_acc_final": base + gain,
"eval_acc_baseline": base,
}
)
for task in tasks:
for step in steps:
# a saturating reward curve + seeded noise
reward = base + gain * (1 - np.exp(-step / 150)) + RNG.normal(0, 0.01)
metrics.append(
{
"run_id": run_id,
"metric": f"reward/{task}",
"step": int(step),
"value": float(reward),
"timestamp": 1_700_000_000_000 + int(step) * 1000,
}
)
out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
runs_path = out_dir / "runs.parquet"
metrics_path = out_dir / "metrics.parquet"
pd.DataFrame(runs).to_parquet(runs_path, index=False)
pd.DataFrame(metrics).to_parquet(metrics_path, index=False)
digest = hashlib.sha256()
for p in (runs_path, metrics_path):
digest.update(p.read_bytes())
(out_dir / "export_manifest.json").write_text(
json.dumps(
{
"experiment": "grpo_loop (SYNTHETIC)",
"exported_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
"n_runs": len(runs),
"n_metric_points": len(metrics),
"export_sha256": digest.hexdigest(),
"synthetic": True,
},
indent=2,
)
)
print(f"wrote synthetic export to {out_dir}/ (sha256 {digest.hexdigest()[:12]})")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
The house style
"""The book's one and only matplotlib house style.
Applied per-figure via a context manager so import order can never stomp it.
Palette is Paul Tol's colorblind-safe qualitative set. Color is never the
only channel that carries meaning, pair it with line style or marker.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from contextlib import contextmanager
import matplotlib as mpl
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# Tol "bright" qualitative palette, safe for red-green CVD, ~8% of men.
PALETTE = ["#4477AA", "#EE6677", "#228833", "#CCBB44", "#66CCEE", "#AA3377", "#BBBBBB"]
LINESTYLES = ["-", "--", "-.", ":"]
MARKERS = ["o", "s", "^", "D", "v"]
_RC = {
"figure.figsize": (6.0, 3.7), # fixed size -> stable layout across builds
"figure.dpi": 150, # fixed DPI -> stable raster output
"savefig.dpi": 150,
"savefig.bbox": "tight",
"font.family": "sans-serif",
"font.size": 10,
"axes.spines.top": False,
"axes.spines.right": False,
"axes.grid": True,
"axes.grid.axis": "y",
"grid.alpha": 0.3,
"axes.prop_cycle": mpl.cycler(color=PALETTE),
"legend.frameon": False,
}
@contextmanager
def house_style():
mpl.use("Agg") # non-interactive: deterministic, headless, CI-safe
with plt.rc_context(_RC):
yield
def style_for(i: int) -> dict:
"""Consistent (color, linestyle, marker) for the i-th series."""
return {
"color": PALETTE[i % len(PALETTE)],
"linestyle": LINESTYLES[i % len(LINESTYLES)],
"marker": MARKERS[i % len(MARKERS)],
"markersize": 3,
}
A figure script: reward curves over training
"""reward_curve.png, mean reward vs step, one line per task, band over seeds.
Reads only the frozen export. Writes PNG + SVG + a provenance sidecar so we
can mechanically detect a stale figure (export hash mismatch).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import json
from pathlib import Path
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from house_style import house_style, style_for
np.random.seed(0) # any jitter/sampling in a figure must be seeded
def load(export_dir: Path) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, dict]:
metrics = pd.read_parquet(export_dir / "metrics.parquet")
manifest = json.loads((export_dir / "export_manifest.json").read_text())
# Keep ONLY reward/* metrics: a real export also carries loss, kl,
# eval_acc, etc., and without this filter each of those becomes a bogus
# "task" line on the reward plot.
metrics = metrics[metrics["metric"].str.startswith("reward/")].copy()
metrics["task"] = metrics["metric"].str.replace("reward/", "", regex=False)
metrics["task"] = metrics["task"].astype("category")
return metrics, manifest
def make(export_dir: Path, out_dir: Path) -> None:
metrics, manifest = load(export_dir)
# explicit aggregation: mean and standard error, computed in one place
agg = (
metrics.groupby(["task", "step"], observed=True)["value"]
.agg(mean="mean", sem=lambda s: s.std(ddof=1) / np.sqrt(len(s)))
.reset_index()
)
with house_style():
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
for i, task in enumerate(agg["task"].cat.categories):
d = agg[agg["task"] == task]
st = style_for(i)
ax.plot(d["step"], d["mean"], label=task, **st)
ax.fill_between(
d["step"], d["mean"] - d["sem"], d["mean"] + d["sem"],
color=st["color"], alpha=0.15, linewidth=0,
)
ax.set_xlabel("GRPO step")
ax.set_ylabel("reward (mean ± SEM over seeds)")
ax.set_title("Reward over training")
ax.legend(title="task")
out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
png = out_dir / "reward_curve.png"
fig.savefig(png)
fig.savefig(out_dir / "reward_curve.svg")
plt.close(fig)
# provenance sidecar: which export + how many points made this figure
(out_dir / "reward_curve.json").write_text(
json.dumps(
{
"figure": "reward_curve.png",
"export_sha256": manifest.get("export_sha256"),
"synthetic": manifest.get("synthetic", False),
"n_points": int(len(metrics)),
},
indent=2,
)
)
print(f"wrote {png}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--export", type=Path, default=Path("export"))
ap.add_argument("--out", type=Path, default=Path("out"))
a = ap.parse_args()
make(a.export, a.out)
A second figure: the before/after delta
This one reads the wide runs table and makes the plot the thesis leans on hardest: per-seed baseline vs post-training accuracy, with the paired delta annotated. The statistics behind it live in chapter 7.6; here I only draw what that chapter computed.
"""delta_plot.png, paired baseline vs post-training accuracy, per seed.
Wide runs table in, one figure out. Deliberately shows the pairing (a line
per seed) because the thesis claim is a *paired* improvement, not two means.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import json
from pathlib import Path
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from house_style import house_style, PALETTE
np.random.seed(0)
def make(export_dir: Path, out_dir: Path) -> None:
runs = pd.read_parquet(export_dir / "runs.parquet")
manifest = json.loads((export_dir / "export_manifest.json").read_text())
runs = runs.sort_values("seed")
with house_style():
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
for _, r in runs.iterrows():
ax.plot(
[0, 1],
[r["eval_acc_baseline"], r["eval_acc_final"]],
color=PALETTE[int(r["seed"]) % len(PALETTE)],
marker="o", markersize=4,
label=f"seed {int(r['seed'])}",
)
deltas = runs["eval_acc_final"] - runs["eval_acc_baseline"]
ax.set_xticks([0, 1])
ax.set_xticklabels(["baseline", "post-training"])
ax.set_ylabel("eval accuracy")
ax.set_title(
f"Paired delta: mean +{deltas.mean():.3f} "
f"(n={len(runs)} seeds)"
)
ax.legend()
out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
png = out_dir / "delta_plot.png"
fig.savefig(png)
fig.savefig(out_dir / "delta_plot.svg")
plt.close(fig)
(out_dir / "delta_plot.json").write_text(
json.dumps(
{
"figure": "delta_plot.png",
"export_sha256": manifest.get("export_sha256"),
"mean_delta": float(deltas.mean()),
"n_seeds": int(len(runs)),
},
indent=2,
)
)
print(f"wrote {png}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--export", type=Path, default=Path("export"))
ap.add_argument("--out", type=Path, default=Path("out"))
a = ap.parse_args()
make(a.export, a.out)
The driver and the staleness check
"""Rebuild every figure. Dumb on purpose: glob make_*.py, run each, fail loud.
Also verifies each figure's sidecar export hash matches the current export,
so `uv run python build_all.py --check` fails CI when a figure is stale.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import json
import runpy
import sys
from pathlib import Path
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
def build(export_dir: Path, out_dir: Path) -> None:
for script in sorted(HERE.glob("make_*.py")):
if script.name == "make_synthetic_export.py":
continue
sys.argv = [script.name, "--export", str(export_dir), "--out", str(out_dir)]
runpy.run_path(str(script), run_name="__main__")
def check(export_dir: Path, out_dir: Path) -> int:
current = json.loads((export_dir / "export_manifest.json").read_text())["export_sha256"]
stale = []
for sidecar in out_dir.glob("*.json"):
got = json.loads(sidecar.read_text()).get("export_sha256")
if got != current:
stale.append(sidecar.stem)
if stale:
print(f"STALE figures (export hash mismatch): {', '.join(stale)}", file=sys.stderr)
return 1
print("all figures current")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--export", type=Path, default=Path("export"))
ap.add_argument("--out", type=Path, default=Path("out"))
ap.add_argument("--check", action="store_true")
a = ap.parse_args()
if a.check:
raise SystemExit(check(a.export, a.out))
build(a.export, a.out)
Run it
cd figures
# 1. make a synthetic export (skip once you have a real one via export_runs.py)
uv run python make_synthetic_export.py
# 2. build every figure from the frozen export
uv run python build_all.py --export export --out out
# 3. prove no figure is stale relative to the export
uv run python build_all.py --export export --out out --check
# 4. copy into the book (do this from your book build, not by hand every time)
mkdir -p ../book/src/p7-loop/img
cp out/reward_curve.png out/delta_plot.png ../book/src/p7-loop/img/
What you should see
After step 1, an export/ directory with runs.parquet, metrics.parquet, and export_manifest.json, the manifest reporting "synthetic": true, 3 runs, and 180 metric points. After step 2, an out/ directory containing reward_curve.png/.svg/.json and delta_plot.png/.svg/.json. The reward curve shows three saturating lines (one per task) with faint SEM bands over the three seeds; the delta plot shows three colored lines climbing from "baseline" to "post-training" with a mean delta near +0.10 in the title (this is synthetic data, so the exact value is meaningless, on real runs, record it with the run IDs and date). Step 3 prints all figures current. Now change one number in the synthetic generator, re-export without rebuilding, and run --check again: it prints STALE figures and exits non-zero. That failing check is the whole point. It is the mechanical guarantee that no figure in the book can drift away from the data it claims to show. When you wire this into CI (chapter 9.3), a stale figure fails the build, and "every figure is regenerable by script" stops being a promise and becomes an invariant.
"Your charts are lying to you and you can't even tell." A short, opinionated post on the one rule that separates a reproducible analysis from a pile of screenshots: every figure must be a pure function of a frozen, hashed data export, rebuilt by a script that fails CI when it drifts. Show the two-table pattern (wide "what a run was," long "what a run did"), the colorblind-safe house style, and the staleness check that turns "trust me, I regenerated it" into a green or red checkmark. The hook is the demo where changing the data and forgetting to rebuild makes the build go red on its own.
Writing the methodology chapter
The methodology chapter is where a thesis lives or dies in the committee room. It is not where you report results and it is not where you sell the idea. It is where you convince three skeptical people that if they had run what you ran, they would have gotten what you got, and that what you got means what you say it means. Everything in this book has been building toward being able to write that chapter without flinching.
The good news is that I have not been writing a thesis and a book as two separate acts of labor. Every chapter left an artifact on disk: a config, a task suite, a logged run, a figure script, a causal audit. The methodology chapter is mostly an act of mapping, pointing at artifacts that already exist and saying "here is the evidence for that claim, at this path, under this commit." This chapter is about doing that mapping deliberately, and about pre-loading the answers to the three challenges committees always raise: construct validity, statistics, and contamination.
This is the one thesis-facing chapter in Part IX, so it talks about the thesis document (a private LaTeX repo) as well as the book. The methodology skeleton I build in the lab is public and lives in the repo; the filled-in thesis prose stays private until after the defense, per the licensing split in chapter 9.3. Where I quote a measured result I write "(measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver)" because I will not fabricate numbers, and the real values come off the MSI Aegis R2 (RTX 5080 16GB) into the private thesis, not into this book.
Theory
What a methodology chapter is actually for
A results chapter answers "what happened." A methodology chapter answers "why should I believe it, and how would I redo it." Those are different burdens. The second one decomposes into three questions a reader is entitled to ask, and a good methodology chapter answers all three before the reader has to ask:
The first is reproducibility: given your artifacts, can I re-run this and get the same thing? This is the easiest to satisfy mechanically and the one this book is built to nail, because every run is in MLflow, every figure is regenerable (chapter 9.1), and every config is version-pinned in the reproducibility package (chapter 9.3).
The second is validity: does your measurement measure the construct you claim? A number can be perfectly reproducible and still measure the wrong thing. If my "reasoning delta" is really a "format-compliance delta" because the scorer rewards a boxed final answer and the model just learned to box its guesses, then I have a reproducible measurement of the wrong construct. This is construct validity, and it is where the causal work in Part IV earns its place in the thesis.
The third is inference: are your statistical claims warranted by your design and sample size? An improvement of a few points across three seeds is a different epistemic object depending on whether it is a paired comparison on shared items with an effect size and an interval, or two bar heights with no uncertainty at all. Chapter 7.6 did this work; the methodology chapter has to surface it.
The mapping principle
The central move is to treat the thesis methodology chapter as an index into the book, not a re-derivation. Every methodological claim in the thesis should resolve to an artifact: a file, a commit, a chapter, a logged run ID. If a claim can't be resolved to an artifact, it is either unsupported or it belongs in the discussion as a limitation. That discipline does two things. It keeps the methodology chapter honest, because every sentence has a pointer or it gets cut. And it keeps it short, because the heavy machinery lives in the book and the appendices, and the chapter just routes to it.
flowchart TD M[Thesis methodology chapter] --> R[Reproducibility claims] M --> V[Validity claims] M --> S[Statistical claims] R --> R1[ch 9.3 repro package: uv locks, configs, seeds] R --> R2[ch 9.1 figure pipeline: every figure regenerable] V --> V1[ch 4.6 causal audit: the DAG + threats table] V --> V2[ch 3.8 contamination: dataset hygiene] S --> S1[ch 7.6 reasoning delta: paired stats, effect sizes] S --> S2[ch 3.7 eval statistics: CIs, clustered SEs] V --> V3[ch 7.4 reward hacking: construct drift under RL]
Read that diagram as the table of contents for the methodology chapter. Each leaf is a place the book already did the work.
The three challenges, and where the book pre-answers each
Construct validity: "how do you know you measured reasoning?" This is the sharpest question a committee asks about an RL-from-evals thesis, because the whole design has a built-in failure mode: reinforcement learning optimizes whatever the scorer rewards, so if the scorer is a bad proxy for reasoning, the model will get better at the proxy and the "reasoning delta" will be an artifact of the reward, not a real capability gain. This is Goodhart's law wearing a lab coat. The book confronts it in three places. Chapter 7.4 (reward hacking and Goodhart) is the direct treatment: how scorers get gamed and how I detect it. Chapter 4.6 (the causal audit) is the formal treatment: a DAG of the whole serve-to-score-to-train pipeline with the threats to validity enumerated and each one mapped to a mitigation. And chapter 3.8 (contamination) rules out the specific validity threat where the "reasoning" was memorized. In the thesis, I quote the audit and point at these three chapters, and the construct-validity question is answered before it is asked.
Statistics: "is this improvement real or is it noise?" Committees have seen too many deltas that evaporate under a proper test. The book's answer is that the reasoning delta was always designed as a paired comparison. Chapter 3.7 sets up the statistics of evals: accuracy is a mean of Bernoulli trials, so it has a binomial confidence interval, and when items are grouped (multiple samples per prompt, or prompts sharing a source) the naive SE understates uncertainty and you need a clustered or hierarchical estimate. Chapter 7.6 applies that to the pre/post design: same items before and after, a paired test on the per-item score differences, an effect size (standardized mean difference) with an interval, and a separate look at whether the gain is a shift in the mean or a shift in pass@k. The methodology chapter states the design (paired, shared items, seeds as the unit of replication), names the test, and points at 7.6 for the worked computation.
Contamination: "was the eval in the training data?" For any model trained on a large web corpus, the null hypothesis a committee holds is that the benchmark leaked into pretraining. The book's answer is chapter 3.8, dataset hygiene: how I built the thesis task suite (chapter 3.9) to reduce contamination risk, the decontamination checks I ran, and the honest statement of residual risk for items I couldn't fully clear. The methodology chapter reports the hygiene procedure and cites the audit's treatment of contamination as a formal threat.
The line between methodology and limitations
A methodology chapter is stronger when it knows where it ends. Not every threat gets fully closed, and pretending otherwise is the fastest way to lose a committee's trust, because they will find the gap you papered over. So I draw an explicit line: threats I mitigated go in the methodology chapter with their mitigation and evidence, and threats I could only bound or partially address go in the limitations section of the discussion, stated plainly with the residual risk quantified where I can quantify it. The causal audit is what lets me draw that line honestly, because it enumerates every threat, and each one gets sorted into "closed here, see chapter X" or "bounded, residual risk is Y, discussed in limitations." A committee reading that split sees someone who understands their own design well enough to know its edges, which is a far better position than claiming a design with no edges. The mapping tool below encodes this by giving every claim a challenge category and an artifact; a claim whose best available artifact is "bounded, not closed" is a signal to route that threat to limitations rather than to overstate it in methodology.
Citing the causal audit verbatim
The causal audit from chapter 4.6 is the single most useful methodology exhibit in the book, because it is already written in the register a committee wants: a DAG, an enumerated threat list, and a mitigation for each threat with a pointer to where it was handled. In the thesis I quote it verbatim rather than paraphrase, so the methodology chapter and the causal chapter cannot drift apart. The audit's estimand, quoted as it appears in chapter 4.6, is:
"Estimand. Causal effect of GRPO verifiable-reward training on SDA pass@1: E[score | do(train)] - E[score | do(no train)]." (chapter 4.6, causal audit v1.0)
That one line does more work in a committee room than any results table, because it states plainly that the target is the causal effect of the training intervention on the score under a do-operation, not the raw movement of reward, and that my design is built to tell those two apart. The audit's threats table, also quoted verbatim in the thesis, enumerates the specific ways the delta can be confounded or short-circuited (judge revision drift, pre-existing optimizer drift, pipeline-invariant drift across pre and post, verbosity as a construct confound, judge self-preference, contamination, item/seed/machine specificity, sampling noise, and selection on a collider) and points each at its mitigation chapter. The methodology chapter's job is to reproduce that table and let it stand.
The most common self-inflicted wound in a methodology chapter is quoting your own earlier work approximately. If the thesis paraphrases the audit and the audit later gets revised, the two say slightly different things and a careful reader (or examiner) catches the seam. Quote verbatim with a version tag ("causal audit v1.0, chapter 4.6") and treat the audit as a single source of truth that both the book and the thesis point at. When the audit changes, bump its version and re-quote, never let two copies of a methodological claim exist that can disagree.
Tooling
The artifact-to-section map as a real file
I don't keep the mapping in my head. It lives in a YAML file in the thesis repo, one entry per methodological claim, each with the thesis section it supports, the book chapter that backs it, the artifact path, and the challenge category it answers. That file is the source that generates the methodology skeleton, and it is also a checklist: any claim without a resolved artifact path is visibly unfinished. The lab below builds this.
Why a skeleton, not a draft
I generate a skeleton with pointers rather than trying to auto-write prose, for the same reason I don't auto-write the thesis: the prose is where I do the thinking, and I want to do that thinking, not launder it through a template. What the tool gives me is the scaffolding that guarantees I addressed every challenge and cited every artifact. The prose I write by hand into the scaffold. The skeleton is public (it reveals structure, not results); the filled draft is private until the defense.
Lab
The artifact is a methodology skeleton with pointers into the book: a YAML claim map plus a generator that turns it into a Markdown skeleton with the three-challenge structure, verbatim audit quote slots, and artifact links. No GPU.
The claim map
# One entry per methodological claim. Every claim MUST resolve to an artifact.
# challenge: one of {reproducibility, validity, statistics}
# A claim with artifact: null is unfinished and the generator flags it.
audit_version: "v1.0" # chapter 4.6 causal audit; quoted verbatim
task_suite_version: "v1.2.0" # chapter 3.9 thesis task suite
claims:
- id: repro-env
section: "3.1 Computational environment"
challenge: reproducibility
claim: "The full software stack is pinned and re-instantiable from lockfiles."
book_chapter: "9.3 The reproducibility package"
artifact: "repro/uv.lock, repro/configs/"
- id: repro-figures
section: "3.2 Analysis and figures"
challenge: reproducibility
claim: "Every figure is regenerated by script from a frozen, hashed export."
book_chapter: "9.1 From logs to figures"
artifact: "figures/build_all.py, export/export_manifest.json"
- id: valid-estimand
section: "3.3 What we measure"
challenge: validity
claim: "The estimand is the causal effect of the update on capability, not on reward."
book_chapter: "4.6 Causal audit of the thesis eval design"
artifact: "book/src/p4-causal/06-causal-audit.md"
quote_audit: true
- id: valid-reward-hacking
section: "3.4 Threats to construct validity"
challenge: validity
claim: "Reward hacking is detected and bounded, not assumed absent."
book_chapter: "7.4 Reward hacking and Goodhart"
artifact: "book/src/p7-loop/04-reward-hacking.md"
- id: valid-contamination
section: "3.5 Dataset hygiene"
challenge: validity
claim: "The task suite is decontaminated; residual risk is stated per item."
book_chapter: "3.8 Contamination and dataset hygiene"
artifact: "repro/task_suite/decontamination_report.json"
- id: stat-paired
section: "3.6 Statistical design"
challenge: statistics
claim: "The delta is a paired comparison on shared items with an effect size and interval."
book_chapter: "7.6 Measuring the reasoning delta"
artifact: "book/src/p7-loop/06-reasoning-delta.md"
- id: stat-clustered
section: "3.6 Statistical design"
challenge: statistics
claim: "Uncertainty accounts for item clustering; seeds are the replication unit."
book_chapter: "3.7 The statistics of evals"
artifact: "book/src/p3-evals/07-eval-statistics.md"
The verbatim audit quote, kept in one place
# Single source of truth for verbatim audit text. The book and the thesis
# BOTH pull from here, so they can never drift. Bump `version` when 4.6 changes.
version: "v1.0"
source: "chapter 4.6, causal audit v1.0"
framing: >
Estimand. Causal effect of GRPO verifiable-reward training on SDA pass@1:
E[score | do(train)] - E[score | do(no train)].
threats:
- name: "Judge revision differs pre vs post"
mitigation: "3.6 (calibration), 4.3 (diagnosis)"
- name: "Pre-existing KL/optimizer drift misattributed to the reward"
mitigation: "4.5 (controls), 7.7 (run matrix)"
- name: "Decoding seed / vLLM version / template differ pre vs post"
mitigation: "0.4 (envs), 2.5 (vLLM ops), 4.5 (protocol invariants)"
- name: "Score reflects verbosity/formatting, not reasoning"
mitigation: "3.4 (scorers), 4.3 (mediator vs confounder)"
- name: "Judge self-preference inflates in-family scores"
mitigation: "3.6 (judge calibration)"
- name: "Contamination: model may have seen frozen eval items"
mitigation: "3.8 (contamination), 3.9 (frozen suite v1.0)"
- name: "Effect specific to item set / seed / machine"
mitigation: "4.5 (negative control), 7.7 (seeds from power analysis)"
- name: "Delta indistinguishable from sampling noise"
mitigation: "3.7 (eval statistics), 7.6 (paired analysis)"
- name: "Selection on failed/incomplete runs (collider)"
mitigation: "4.3 (collider), 3.10 (eval ops)"
The skeleton generator
"""Turn the claim map + audit quotes into a methodology chapter skeleton.
Output is a Markdown scaffold: the three-challenge structure, one section per
claim with its artifact pointer, and the verbatim audit quote dropped in
wherever a claim sets quote_audit: true. Prose is written by hand into this
scaffold, the tool guarantees coverage, not content.
Run: uv run python make_skeleton.py
Deps: uv add pyyaml
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from pathlib import Path
import yaml
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
CHALLENGES = ["reproducibility", "validity", "statistics"]
CHALLENGE_TITLES = {
"reproducibility": "Reproducibility: can it be re-run?",
"validity": "Validity: does it measure the construct?",
"statistics": "Statistical inference: is the claim warranted?",
}
def load():
claims = yaml.safe_load((HERE / "claim_map.yaml").read_text())
quotes = yaml.safe_load((HERE / "audit_quotes.yaml").read_text())
return claims, quotes
def render(claims: dict, quotes: dict) -> str:
lines: list[str] = []
lines.append("# Methodology (SKELETON: pointers, not prose)\n")
lines.append(
f"_Generated from claim_map.yaml. Audit {claims['audit_version']}, "
f"task suite {claims['task_suite_version']}. "
f"Fill each section with prose by hand; do not commit results until "
f"after the defense._\n"
)
unfinished = [c for c in claims["claims"] if not c.get("artifact")]
for ch in CHALLENGES:
lines.append(f"\n## {CHALLENGE_TITLES[ch]}\n")
group = [c for c in claims["claims"] if c["challenge"] == ch]
for c in group:
lines.append(f"### {c['section']}, {c['id']}\n")
lines.append(f"**Claim.** {c['claim']}\n")
lines.append(f"**Backed by.** {c['book_chapter']}\n")
art = c.get("artifact") or "**MISSING ARTIFACT, resolve before defense**"
lines.append(f"**Artifact.** `{art}`\n")
if c.get("quote_audit"):
lines.append(f"> {quotes['framing'].strip()}\n")
lines.append(f"> {quotes['source']}\n")
lines.append("\n**Threats table (verbatim from the audit):**\n")
lines.append("\n| Threat | Mitigation |")
lines.append("\n|---|---|")
for t in quotes["threats"]:
lines.append(f"\n| {t['name']} | {t['mitigation']} |")
lines.append("\n")
lines.append("\n_[write prose here]_\n")
lines.append("\n## Coverage check\n")
if unfinished:
ids = ", ".join(c["id"] for c in unfinished)
lines.append(f"UNFINISHED CLAIMS (no artifact): **{ids}**\n")
else:
lines.append("All claims resolve to an artifact. Coverage complete.\n")
return "".join(lines)
def main():
claims, quotes = load()
assert quotes["version"] == claims["audit_version"], (
f"audit version mismatch: quotes={quotes['version']} "
f"claim_map={claims['audit_version']}, re-sync before generating"
)
out = HERE / "methodology_skeleton.md"
out.write_text(render(claims, quotes))
print(f"wrote {out}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it
cd thesis/methodology
uv init --package . 2>/dev/null || true
uv add pyyaml
uv run python make_skeleton.py
What you should see
A methodology_skeleton.md file with three top-level sections in the fixed order reproducibility, validity, statistics. Under validity, the valid-estimand entry carries the audit's estimand as a block quote attributed to "chapter 4.6, causal audit v1.0," followed by the verbatim threats table mapping each threat (judge revision drift, optimizer drift, pipeline-invariant drift, verbosity confound, judge self-preference, contamination, item/seed/machine specificity, sampling noise, selection collider) to its mitigation chapter. Every claim shows its thesis section, the book chapter that backs it, and a concrete artifact path. The final "Coverage check" section prints "All claims resolve to an artifact. Coverage complete." Now delete the artifact: line from any claim in claim_map.yaml and regenerate: that claim renders with "MISSING ARTIFACT, resolve before defense" and the coverage check names it as unfinished. That is the skeleton doing its job. It will not let me walk into a defense with a methodological claim I can't point at a file for. The prose I still write myself, section by section, into a private copy of this scaffold. What the tool guarantees is that I addressed all three challenges the committee will raise, quoted the audit exactly rather than approximately, and left no claim floating without evidence.
"How to pre-answer your thesis committee." Every eval-based ML thesis faces the same three questions: can it be re-run, does it measure the thing, and is the improvement real. This post turns that into a reusable pattern: a claim map that forces every methodological sentence to resolve to an artifact on disk, and a generator that fails when a claim has no evidence. The sharpest angle is the construct-validity trap specific to training-from-evals, reinforcement learning optimizes the scorer, so "reward went up" and "the model got smarter" are different claims, and your methodology has to be built to tell them apart before anyone asks.
The reproducibility package
A thesis makes a claim. A reproducibility package is the bet you're willing to make that the claim is true: here is everything you need to try to break it. If a stranger with the same GPU can't get close to my numbers from the package alone, then either the package is incomplete or the result was fragile, and I'd rather find that out before the defense than during it.
This chapter is about building that package as a first-class artifact, not a zip file I throw together the night before submission. It ships the environment locks, the configs, the task suite, the seeds, and the figure scripts. It carries a clear license split. And it gets archived twice, to the NAS for durability and to a public mirror for reach, with the thesis-specific results held back until after the defense.
Everything here is real repo structure you can build today; none of it needs a GPU. The package references runs that were produced on the baseline machine (MSI Aegis R2, RTX 5080 16GB, Ubuntu 24.04), but the package itself is just files: lockfiles, YAML, seeds, scripts, and manifests. Where a manifest records a measured quantity (a runtime, a checksum of a real checkpoint) I write "(measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver)" as a placeholder, because I won't invent measured numbers and there is no GPU where I'm assembling this.
Theory
The three levels of "reproducible"
The word does too much work, so I split it into three levels and I'm honest about which one I'm claiming.
The weakest is repeatable: I re-run my own code on my own machine and get the same thing. This is table stakes and it mostly comes free from pinning seeds and versions.
The middle is reproducible: someone else re-runs my code on their machine, ideally the same hardware, and gets statistically consistent results. This is what the package is built to deliver on a machine like mine. Exact bit-for-bit agreement across machines is usually impossible for GPU floating-point work, because kernel selection, cuDNN autotuning, and reduction order all vary with hardware and driver, so "reproducible" here means "the deltas and their intervals agree," not "every digit matches."
The strongest is replicable: someone re-implements the idea from the description and finds the same effect. The package can't guarantee that, but a clean methodology chapter (9.2) and an honest task suite make it more likely.
I aim the package squarely at the middle level and I say so in the README, because overclaiming reproducibility is its own kind of dishonesty.
GPU results are not bit-reproducible across hardware, and often not even across driver versions on the same card, because nondeterministic reduction order and autotuned kernels change the last few bits of a matmul, which then compound through training. If your package promises identical numbers, the first person on a different card who gets slightly different numbers will conclude your whole result is broken. Promise statistical reproducibility: matching effect sizes and overlapping intervals across seeds, not identical digits. And record the one config that gets you as close as possible, pinned driver, CUBLAS_WORKSPACE_CONFIG, deterministic algorithms where they exist, while being upfront that determinism costs throughput (measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver).
What actually has to ship
A package is complete when someone can go from an empty machine to my figures without asking me a question. That means five things travel together, and a missing one silently breaks the chain.
The environment, as lockfiles, not as "pip install these." I use uv throughout the book, so the package ships pyproject.toml and uv.lock, which pin every transitive dependency to an exact version and hash. The lock is the difference between "it worked in 2026" and "it works." I also record the things uv can't lock: the CUDA driver version, the GPU model, and the OS, because those are part of the environment even though they live below Python.
The configs, one per experiment, version-controlled and referenced by the runs. Every run in MLflow was launched from a config; the package ships those configs so the run can be relaunched. A config that isn't in the package is a result that can't be reproduced, full stop.
The task suite, at a pinned version. The thesis task suite (chapter 3.9) is the measuring instrument, and the whole result is relative to it. The package ships the suite at a tagged version with its decontamination report, so the instrument is fixed and inspectable.
The seeds, recorded per run, not regenerated. Seeds are data. The package records the exact seed each run used, because "seeds 0, 1, 2" is a claim about which three runs I'm reporting, and reproducing the result means reproducing those three, not three fresh ones.
The figure scripts, from chapter 9.1, so the package produces the actual figures in the book from the frozen export, not just raw numbers. A reproducibility package that stops at CSVs makes the reader re-derive my plots; one that ships the figure pipeline lets them regenerate the exact figures and diff them against the book.
The manifest is the package
The physical files matter less than the manifest that ties them together. The manifest is a single file that lists every component with its version and a checksum, so the package can verify its own integrity and so a reader can tell at a glance what version of what they're holding. If the manifest and the files disagree, the package is corrupt and the verification step says so. This is the same idea as the export sidecar in chapter 9.1, scaled up to the whole package.
What deliberately does not ship
A reproducibility package is defined as much by what it leaves out as by what it includes, and the omissions have to be principled, not accidental. Three things stay out on purpose. Large model weights stay out of the public tree because they're gigabytes, they're derivable from the configs plus the base model, and hosting them is a bandwidth problem I don't need; the NAS archive keeps them for my own re-runs, and the public tree ships a pointer (the base model's Hugging Face ID and revision hash, plus the training config) so a reader can regenerate rather than download. Raw generation logs stay out because they can contain prompts and completions that I haven't cleared for release, and because their value to a reproducer is low relative to their size. And anything with a secret in it, an API token, a tracking-server URL with credentials, a NAS mount path, never ships in either tree; the packager works on a repo that already keeps those in environment variables and out of the committed files. The rule is that the package ships what's needed to reproduce and nothing that's merely incidental to how I happened to run it.
Verifying a reproduction, not just the package
The verifier in the lab checks that the package is internally consistent, but that is a weaker claim than "someone reproduced my result." The stronger claim needs a target to hit, so the package ships expected outputs for the parts that are safe to publish before the defense: the figure sidecar hashes from chapter 9.1, the task-suite decontamination report, and the shape and column schema of the frozen export. A reproducer runs the pipeline, regenerates the figures, and compares their sidecars against the shipped ones. The comparison is statistical, not exact (a figure regenerated on a different matplotlib patch version can differ by a pixel), so the check is on the underlying aggregated numbers the figure encodes, not on the PNG bytes. After the defense, the expected measured deltas join the shipped outputs, and the reproduction target becomes the full thing: land within the reported intervals or find the discrepancy worth reporting.
flowchart TD MAN[MANIFEST.json\nversions + checksums] --> ENV[uv.lock + pyproject.toml] MAN --> CFG[configs/*.yaml] MAN --> TS[task_suite/ @ v1.2.0 + decontam report] MAN --> SEED[seeds.json] MAN --> FIG[figures/ pipeline from ch 9.1] MAN --> EXP[export/ frozen MLflow snapshot] MAN -. results held private until defense .-> RES[(results/, NAS only)]
Note the dashed leaf: the results directory is in the manifest but its contents ship only to the private NAS archive until after the defense. The public mirror gets everything else.
Licensing, deliberately split
Code and prose are different kinds of thing and they want different licenses, so I split them.
The code, figure scripts, config loaders, the eval and training harnesses I wrote, is MIT. I want people to use it, fork it, and build on it with the least possible friction, and MIT is the lowest-friction permissive license that still keeps my copyright notice attached.
The prose, the book chapters, the methodology writing, the figures as expository objects, is CC BY-NC-SA. Attribution because I want credit, NonCommercial because I don't want someone repackaging the book as a paid course without asking, and ShareAlike because if someone builds on the writing I want the derivative to stay as open as the original. That is a deliberately more restrictive choice than the code, and it reflects that the writing is the thesis of the book while the code is a tool anyone should be able to grab.
The thesis-specific results, the actual measured deltas, the checkpoints, the run artifacts that constitute the novel contribution, stay private until after the defense. This isn't a license, it's an embargo. The package is structured so the embargo is a matter of which directory ships where, not a matter of me remembering to delete things.
Two archives, two jobs
Durability and reach are different goals, so I use two archives.
The NAS archive (the 5TB NAS on the baseline machine's network) is for durability and completeness. It holds the full package including the private results and the large checkpoints, because it's mine and it's under my control. Its job is that I never lose the ability to reproduce my own thesis. I write it as a dated, checksummed tarball, and I keep more than one.
The public mirror is for reach and for the reproducibility claim itself. It holds everything except the embargoed results: the code under MIT, the prose under CC BY-NC-SA, the configs, the task suite, the seeds, and the figure pipeline. Its job is that a stranger can verify the machinery even before the results go public, and that after the defense the results can be added with a single push. A public git host plus a DOI-minting archive (so the package has a citable, permanent identifier) covers both the "grab and run" and the "cite in a paper" use cases.
Tooling
uv as the environment spine
uv gives me two things the package needs: an exact lockfile (uv.lock with hashes for every transitive dependency) and a one-command re-instantiation (uv sync rebuilds the exact environment from the lock). Because the whole book already runs on uv, the package's environment story is just "commit the lock and the pyproject," and reproduction is "clone, uv sync, run." No bare pip, no hand-managed venv, no "works on my machine" list of packages to install by guesswork.
A packager that builds the manifest and enforces the embargo
The lab's tool walks the repo, collects the five components, checksums each, writes the manifest, and splits the output into a public tree and a private tree so the embargo is enforced by code rather than by memory. It refuses to put anything from results/ into the public tree, and it fails loudly if a component the manifest expects is missing. That failure is a feature: an incomplete package should not build silently.
Lab
The artifact is reproducibility package v1: a packager that assembles the manifest, splits public from private, and a verifier that checks integrity. No GPU.
Project layout the packager expects
repro/
pyproject.toml
uv.lock
configs/ # one YAML per experiment
task_suite/ # pinned suite + decontamination_report.json
seeds.json # {run_id: seed}
figures/ # the chapter 9.1 pipeline
export/ # frozen MLflow snapshot (ch 9.1)
results/ # EMBARGOED, NAS only, never public
LICENSE-CODE # MIT
LICENSE-PROSE # CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
The packager
"""Assemble reproducibility package v1: manifest + public/private split.
Public tree: everything except results/ (embargoed until after defense).
Private tree: the full package, for the NAS archive.
Fails if an expected component is missing. Enforces the embargo in code.
Run: uv run python build_package.py --version 1.0.0
Deps: stdlib only.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import hashlib
import json
import shutil
import tarfile
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from pathlib import Path
ROOT = Path(__file__).parent
# (path, required, public), public=False means NAS-only (embargoed)
COMPONENTS = [
("pyproject.toml", True, True),
("uv.lock", True, True),
("configs", True, True),
("task_suite", True, True),
("seeds.json", True, True),
("figures", True, True),
("export", True, True),
("LICENSE-CODE", True, True),
("LICENSE-PROSE", True, True),
("results", False, False), # embargoed: private archive only
]
def sha256_of(path: Path) -> str:
h = hashlib.sha256()
if path.is_file():
h.update(path.read_bytes())
else: # directory: hash sorted (relpath, filebytes) for stability
for f in sorted(path.rglob("*")):
if f.is_file():
h.update(str(f.relative_to(path)).encode())
h.update(f.read_bytes())
return h.hexdigest()
def collect(version: str) -> dict:
entries = []
for name, required, public in COMPONENTS:
p = ROOT / name
if not p.exists():
if required:
raise SystemExit(f"MISSING required component: {name}")
continue
entries.append(
{
"component": name,
"public": public,
"sha256": sha256_of(p),
"kind": "dir" if p.is_dir() else "file",
}
)
return {
"package": "evals-as-rewards-repro",
"version": version,
"built_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
"reproducibility_level": "statistical (matching effect sizes + intervals, "
"not identical GPU floating-point digits)",
"baseline_machine": "MSI Aegis R2, RTX 5080 16GB, Ubuntu 24.04",
"driver_version": "RECORD ON BASELINE MACHINE, driver, date",
"license_code": "MIT",
"license_prose": "CC BY-NC-SA 4.0",
"embargo": "results/ private until after defense",
"components": entries,
}
def write_tree(manifest: dict, out: Path, public_only: bool) -> None:
out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
included = []
for e in manifest["components"]:
if public_only and not e["public"]:
continue
src = ROOT / e["component"]
dst = out / e["component"]
if src.is_dir():
shutil.copytree(src, dst, dirs_exist_ok=True)
else:
shutil.copy2(src, dst)
included.append(e["component"])
# write the manifest, marking which tree this is
m = dict(manifest, tree="public" if public_only else "private", included=included)
(out / "MANIFEST.json").write_text(json.dumps(m, indent=2))
def tar(tree: Path, out_tar: Path) -> None:
with tarfile.open(out_tar, "w:gz") as t:
t.add(tree, arcname=tree.name)
def main():
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--version", required=True)
ap.add_argument("--out", type=Path, default=ROOT / "dist")
a = ap.parse_args()
manifest = collect(a.version)
stamp = datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("%Y%m%d")
pub = a.out / f"public-{a.version}"
priv = a.out / f"nas-{a.version}"
write_tree(manifest, pub, public_only=True)
write_tree(manifest, priv, public_only=False)
tar(pub, a.out / f"repro-public-{a.version}-{stamp}.tar.gz")
tar(priv, a.out / f"repro-nas-{a.version}-{stamp}.tar.gz")
embargoed = [e["component"] for e in manifest["components"] if not e["public"]]
print(json.dumps({
"version": a.version,
"public_tarball": f"repro-public-{a.version}-{stamp}.tar.gz",
"nas_tarball": f"repro-nas-{a.version}-{stamp}.tar.gz",
"embargoed_from_public": embargoed,
}, indent=2))
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
The verifier
"""Verify a built package tree against its MANIFEST.json.
Recomputes every component checksum and checks it matches the manifest.
For a public tree, also asserts no embargoed component leaked in.
Run: uv run python verify_package.py dist/public-1.0.0
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import sys
from pathlib import Path
from build_package import sha256_of # reuse the exact hashing logic
def verify(tree: Path) -> int:
manifest = json.loads((tree / "MANIFEST.json").read_text())
problems = []
for e in manifest["components"]:
if e["component"] not in manifest["included"]:
continue
p = tree / e["component"]
if not p.exists():
problems.append(f"missing: {e['component']}")
continue
if sha256_of(p) != e["sha256"]:
problems.append(f"checksum mismatch: {e['component']}")
if manifest["tree"] == "public":
for e in manifest["components"]:
if not e["public"] and (tree / e["component"]).exists():
problems.append(f"EMBARGO BREACH: {e['component']} in public tree")
if problems:
print("FAIL")
for p in problems:
print(f" - {p}")
return 1
print(f"OK, {manifest['package']} {manifest['version']} ({manifest['tree']} tree) verified")
return 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(verify(Path(sys.argv[1])))
The license files
MIT License, applies to all code in this package (*.py, harnesses, configs-as-code).
Copyright (c) 2026 Trevor Barnes
Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
in the Software without restriction ... [standard MIT text] ...
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International
(CC BY-NC-SA 4.0), applies to all prose, figures-as-exposition, and the book
text in this package.
Copyright (c) 2026 Trevor Barnes. You are free to share and adapt under the
terms of attribution, non-commercial use, and share-alike. Full text:
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/legalcode
Build, verify, archive
cd repro
uv sync # re-instantiate the exact env from uv.lock
uv run python build_package.py --version 1.0.0
uv run python verify_package.py dist/public-1.0.0 # must not leak results/
uv run python verify_package.py dist/nas-1.0.0
# archive to NAS (durability, full package incl. embargoed results)
rsync -a --checksum dist/repro-nas-1.0.0-*.tar.gz /mnt/nas/thesis/repro/
# publish the public mirror (reach; results added after the defense)
# git add/commit/push the public tree to the public repo, then mint a DOI
# from the archival host so the package is permanently citable.
What you should see
build_package.py prints a JSON summary naming a public tarball and an nas tarball, and listing results under embargoed_from_public. Two trees appear under dist/: public-1.0.0/ contains the locks, configs, task suite, seeds, figures, export, and both license files but no results/; nas-1.0.0/ contains all of that plus results/. Each tree carries its own MANIFEST.json tagged "tree": "public" or "tree": "private" with a checksum per component and the reproducibility level stated as "statistical, not identical digits." Both verify_package.py runs print OK ... verified. Now the test that matters: drop a stray file into dist/public-1.0.0/results/ and re-verify the public tree. It prints FAIL with EMBARGO BREACH: results in public tree and exits non-zero. That is the embargo enforced by code, not by memory. The package is now something I can hand to a stranger with the same GPU and say: here is the environment, the configs, the instrument, the seeds, and the scripts; uv sync and run; you should land on my deltas within their intervals, and if you don't, one of us has found something worth knowing.
"Ship the bet, not the zip file." Most 'reproducibility packages' are a folder someone assembled at 2am and never tested. This post reframes the package as a falsifiable bet, here's everything you need to try to break my result, and walks the five things that must travel together (locked env, configs, the measuring instrument, the seeds, the figure scripts) plus the honest admission that GPU work is statistically reproducible, not bit-reproducible. The spicy bit is the license split (permissive MIT for code, protective CC BY-NC-SA for prose) and enforcing a results embargo in code so a public mirror physically cannot leak the unpublished numbers.
The Substack map
The book is the reservoir. Substack is the tap. I wrote every chapter to stand as part of a whole, but I also planted a substack-seed in each one, because a book that only exists as a finished PDF reaches almost no one, and a public thesis that nobody reads defends nothing. The Substack series is how the ideas get out while the thesis stays private until the defense, and this chapter is about turning forty-odd seeds into a sequenced, publishable editorial calendar instead of a pile of good intentions.
The trick is that a chapter and a post are different animals. A chapter earns its place by fitting the argument; a post earns its place by standing alone and making someone want the next one. So the map isn't a one-to-one dump of chapters into posts. It's a curation: which seeds are strong enough to lead, which need a sibling chapter's material to be complete, which are too thesis-specific to publish before the defense, and what order builds an audience instead of exhausting one.
This chapter produces an editorial calendar that feeds my existing substack-pipeline workflow (the drafting-and-scheduling system I already run). Nothing here needs a GPU; it's all text and dates. The one constraint that shows up everywhere is the embargo from chapter 9.3: posts that would reveal the thesis-specific measured deltas are marked post-defense and scheduled after the defense date, because the results stay private until then. Any post that quotes a measured number carries the same "(measured on the baseline machine, record value, date, driver)" placeholder discipline as the rest of the book until the real number is cleared for release.
Theory
A chapter is not a post
The unit of a book is the argument; the unit of a newsletter is the hook. A chapter can open slowly because the reader has committed to the book. A post has about one sentence to justify its own existence in a crowded inbox. That difference drives the whole extraction.
Concretely, a good post has a single load-bearing idea, a concrete artifact or demo the reader can picture, and a reason to care that lands before the reader scrolls away. Most chapters contain one such idea cleanly, which is why the substack-seed admonitions work as post kernels. But some chapters contain three ideas (the seed picks the most standalone one and the rest wait), and some ideas are split across two chapters (the post has to pull from both). The map records which case each seed is.
Three properties that decide a seed's fate
For each substack-seed I score three things, and those three decide whether it leads, supports, or waits.
Standalone-ness. Can a reader who has never seen the book get the whole point of this post without prerequisites? A post on "every figure must be regenerable by script" (chapter 9.1) is fully standalone: the idea, the demo, and the payoff need no prior post. A post on "GRPO on 16GB" (chapter 7.2) is not, because it assumes the reader knows what GRPO is and why 16GB is the constraint. Standalone seeds are candidates to lead the series or to be evergreen entry points; dependent seeds sit deeper in a sequence where their prerequisites already ran.
Pull. Does the hook create demand for the next post? Some ideas are naturally serialized (a loop that serves, evaluates, scores, and trains begs "then what happened when you closed the loop?"), and those are the spine of the series. Others are satisfying-and-done (a single sharp tool), and those are good standalone breathers between arcs.
Embargo status. Does the post reveal thesis-specific results that are held until after the defense? A methods post ("here's the pattern for pre-answering a committee," chapter 9.2) is publishable now because it's about structure, not results. A post that shows the actual measured reasoning delta is post-defense. This is a hard gate: no scheduling clever enough to justify leaking the embargoed numbers early.
Some seeds never become posts, and that's a feature. A book chapter can exist to complete an argument even when its idea is too incremental, too dependent, or too niche to hook a cold reader, and forcing every chapter into a post would dilute the series with weak entries. The map is allowed to say no. A seed that scores low on both standalone-ness and pull, and that isn't load-bearing for a later post's setup, gets marked as "book-only" and drops out of the calendar entirely. This is the editorial equivalent of the coverage check in chapter 9.2: the tool makes the decision visible rather than letting a weak post sneak in because it happened to have a seed. A shorter series of strong posts beats a complete-but-flat one, and the readers I keep are the ones who never got a dud.
The tempting failure is to publish the book in chapter order. Chapter order is optimized for the argument, which front-loads foundations (tensors, attention, the RL problem) that make dry standalone posts and bury the hooks that would actually grow an audience. Publishing in chapter order means your first eight posts are a graduate course nobody signed up for, and you lose the readers before you reach the loop that makes the whole thing exciting. Sequence for pull and standalone-ness, not for the table of contents. Lead with the most self-contained, most surprising seed you're allowed to publish, and let the foundations arrive as needed underneath the story.
Sequencing a series
Once each seed is scored, sequencing is a small optimization with a few rules. Lead with a standalone, high-pull, non-embargoed seed, because the first post has to earn the second. Group seeds into arcs of three to five posts that share a thread (an "inference on one GPU" arc, an "evals as measurement" arc, a "closing the loop" arc), because arcs give readers a reason to subscribe rather than read one post and leave. Put a foundation post only where a later post needs it, and frame the foundation as setup for the payoff that's coming, never as homework. Space the embargoed posts to land after the defense, and let them be the crescendo, because the results are the most interesting thing and they should arrive when the audience is largest. Alternate heavy arcs with a single standalone breather so the series has rhythm and I don't burn out drafting five dependent posts in a row.
flowchart LR
subgraph A1[Arc 1: One GPU, real work]
P1[9.1 regenerable figures] --> P2[2.6 benchmark honestly] --> P3[7.2 GRPO on 16GB]
end
subgraph A2[Arc 2: Evals as measurement]
P4[3.1 what an eval is] --> P5[3.8 contamination] --> P6[7.4 reward hacking]
end
subgraph A3[Arc 3: Closing the loop]
P7[7.3 scorers as rewards] --> P8[7.8 the loop] --> P9[7.6 the delta, post-defense]
end
A1 --> A2 --> A3
Cadence and the burnout constraint
There's a constraint that has nothing to do with the ideas and everything to do with me: I can only draft so many posts before the series stalls, and a stalled series is worse than a shorter one because it signals abandonment to the readers I just recruited. So the cadence is a real design parameter, not an afterthought. Weekly is the honest ceiling for a solo author drafting original posts on top of a day job and a thesis, and even weekly only works if the drafting cost per post is low. That is where the seed structure pays off a second time: because each substack-seed is already a hook plus a source chapter, the marginal cost of a post is expanding an outline I wrote months ago, not inventing from scratch. The calendar respects the ceiling by spacing arcs so that the two or three hardest posts (the dependent ones that need material from a sibling chapter) never land back to back. A heavy post gets a standalone breather after it, both for the reader's rhythm and for mine.
Repurposing without duplicating
A post is not the terminal form of an idea; it's the first public form. The good ones get repurposed: the hook becomes a short social thread that points back at the post, the demo becomes a standalone gist, and after the defense the strongest three or four posts get stitched into a single long-form piece that doubles as the public face of the thesis. The map anticipates this by keeping the hook separate from the body, because the hook is the reusable atom. What the map deliberately does not do is let the same idea run as two full posts under different titles. Duplicated ideas train readers to skim, and a newsletter that repeats itself loses the one thing it's trying to build, which is the reader's belief that every issue is worth opening. Each seed maps to exactly one lead post; everything downstream is a pointer back to it, never a second telling.
The calendar is the interface to the pipeline
I already run a substack-pipeline workflow that drafts and schedules posts. What that workflow wants as input is not a pile of prose but a structured calendar: an ordered list of posts, each with its source chapter, its arc, its target date, its embargo flag, and the one-line hook. The map's job is to produce exactly that structure, so the pipeline can pick it up and run. Keeping the calendar as data (not as a doc I edit by hand) means I can resequence by changing a sort key, and the pipeline always sees a consistent view. It also means the embargo gate lives in one place: the sequencer, not my memory, is what guarantees the reasoning-delta post cannot be scheduled before the defense, and if I ever hand the pipeline a hand-edited calendar the assertion in the build step still catches a leak before anything publishes.
Tooling
Seeds as structured records
Each substack-seed becomes a record: source chapter, a title, the three scores (standalone, pull, embargo), the arc it belongs to, and the hook. I keep these in one YAML file, because the seeds are authored across many chapters but scheduled as a single series, and a single file is the place where the whole series is visible at once. The scoring is a judgment call I make once per seed and then let the tool sequence. I re-score only when a chapter changes substantively, so the calendar is stable between edits and I'm not re-litigating the whole series every week.
A sequencer that emits the calendar
The lab's tool reads the seed records, drops or defers the embargoed ones past the defense date, orders the rest by arc and by a lead-worthiness score, assigns dates on a cadence, and emits both a human-readable extraction table (chapter-to-post) and the machine-readable calendar the pipeline consumes. It refuses to schedule an embargoed post before the defense date, which is the same hard gate as everywhere else in Part IX.
Lab
The artifact is an editorial calendar that feeds the substack-pipeline workflow: a seed file plus a sequencer that emits the chapter-to-post extraction table and a dated, embargo-aware calendar. No GPU.
The seed records
The file below is a demo subset: eleven representative seeds, enough to exercise the sequencer and every rule it enforces. The real book carries the forty-odd seeds referenced at the top of the chapter; the full seeds.yaml is the same schema with more rows, and nothing in the tool changes when it grows.
# One record per substack-seed in the book. Scores are 1-5 judgment calls.
# standalone: can a cold reader get it with no prior post? (5 = fully)
# pull: does the hook demand the next post? (5 = strongly)
# embargo: true if it reveals thesis-specific results held until defense.
defense_date: "2026-11-15" # embargoed posts schedule strictly after this
start_date: "2026-08-04" # series launch
cadence_days: 7 # weekly
seeds:
- chapter: "9.1"
title: "Your charts are lying and you can't tell"
arc: "one-gpu-real-work"
standalone: 5
pull: 4
embargo: false
hook: "Every figure must be a pure function of a hashed export, or it drifts."
- chapter: "2.6"
title: "Benchmarking without lying to yourself"
arc: "one-gpu-real-work"
standalone: 5
pull: 4
embargo: false
hook: "The tokens/sec you posted are wrong; here's the honest way to measure."
- chapter: "7.2"
title: "GRPO on a 16GB card"
arc: "one-gpu-real-work"
standalone: 3
pull: 5
embargo: false
hook: "You can train a reasoning model on one consumer GPU. Here's the budget."
- chapter: "3.1"
title: "What an eval actually is"
arc: "evals-as-measurement"
standalone: 5
pull: 4
embargo: false
hook: "An eval is a measuring instrument. Most people never calibrate theirs."
- chapter: "3.8"
title: "Is the benchmark in the training data?"
arc: "evals-as-measurement"
standalone: 4
pull: 4
embargo: false
hook: "The null hypothesis for every benchmark score is contamination."
- chapter: "7.4"
title: "Reward hacking wears a lab coat"
arc: "evals-as-measurement"
standalone: 4
pull: 5
embargo: false
hook: "Train on a scorer and the model games the scorer. Goodhart, formalized."
- chapter: "7.3"
title: "Turning a scorer into a reward"
arc: "closing-the-loop"
standalone: 3
pull: 5
embargo: false
hook: "The eval that grades the model becomes the signal that trains it."
- chapter: "7.8"
title: "Closing the loop end to end"
arc: "closing-the-loop"
standalone: 3
pull: 5
embargo: false
hook: "Serve, evaluate, score, train, re-evaluate, on one machine, on repeat."
- chapter: "9.2"
title: "How to pre-answer your thesis committee"
arc: "closing-the-loop"
standalone: 5
pull: 3
embargo: false
hook: "Three questions every eval thesis faces, answered before they're asked."
- chapter: "7.6"
title: "Did the model actually get smarter?"
arc: "closing-the-loop"
standalone: 4
pull: 5
embargo: true # reveals the measured reasoning delta, post-defense only
hook: "The paired, effect-sized answer to the only question that matters."
The sequencer
"""Turn seeds.yaml into (1) a chapter-to-post extraction table and
(2) a dated, embargo-aware editorial calendar for the substack-pipeline.
Rules enforced:
- embargoed posts are scheduled strictly AFTER defense_date (hard gate).
- the series leads with the most standalone, highest-pull, non-embargoed seed.
- posts are grouped by arc, arcs ordered by their best lead score.
Run: uv run python build_calendar.py
Deps: uv add pyyaml
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta
from pathlib import Path
import yaml
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
def lead_score(seed: dict) -> float:
# lead-worthiness: standalone matters most for a cold reader, pull second.
return 0.6 * seed["standalone"] + 0.4 * seed["pull"]
def main():
cfg = yaml.safe_load((HERE / "seeds.yaml").read_text())
defense = date.fromisoformat(cfg["defense_date"])
start = date.fromisoformat(cfg["start_date"])
step = timedelta(days=cfg["cadence_days"])
seeds = cfg["seeds"]
# order arcs by their strongest lead score; within arc by lead score
arc_best = {}
for s in seeds:
arc_best[s["arc"]] = max(arc_best.get(s["arc"], 0), lead_score(s))
arcs_in_order = sorted(arc_best, key=lambda a: -arc_best[a])
ordered = []
for arc in arcs_in_order:
arc_seeds = sorted(
(s for s in seeds if s["arc"] == arc), key=lambda s: -lead_score(s)
)
ordered.extend(arc_seeds)
# force the single best non-embargoed seed to lead the whole series
non_emb = [s for s in ordered if not s["embargo"]]
lead = max(non_emb, key=lead_score)
ordered.remove(lead)
ordered.insert(0, lead)
# assign dates; push any embargoed post to the first slot after defense
calendar = []
d = start
for s in ordered:
slot = d
if s["embargo"]:
# first cadence slot strictly after the defense date
slot = d
while slot <= defense:
slot += step
calendar.append(
{
"date": slot.isoformat(),
"chapter": s["chapter"],
"arc": s["arc"],
"title": s["title"],
"hook": s["hook"],
"embargo": s["embargo"],
"lead_score": round(lead_score(s), 2),
}
)
d += step
# sort final calendar by date so the pipeline sees chronological order
calendar.sort(key=lambda p: p["date"])
# (1) extraction table, human-readable
lines = ["# Chapter -> post extraction table\n",
"\n| Date | Ch | Arc | Post | Standalone hook | Embargo |",
"\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|"]
for p in calendar:
emb = "post-defense" if p["embargo"] else "-"
lines.append(
f"\n| {p['date']} | {p['chapter']} | {p['arc']} | "
f"{p['title']} | {p['hook']} | {emb} |"
)
(HERE / "extraction_table.md").write_text("".join(lines) + "\n")
# (2) machine-readable calendar for the substack-pipeline
(HERE / "editorial_calendar.json").write_text(
json.dumps(
{
"series": "Evals as Rewards",
"generated_at": datetime.now().isoformat(timespec="seconds"),
"defense_date": cfg["defense_date"],
"posts": calendar,
},
indent=2,
)
)
# sanity gate: no embargoed post on or before the defense date
leaks = [p for p in calendar if p["embargo"] and date.fromisoformat(p["date"]) <= defense]
assert not leaks, f"EMBARGO LEAK in schedule: {leaks}"
print(f"wrote extraction_table.md and editorial_calendar.json "
f"({len(calendar)} posts, lead: {calendar[0]['title']!r})")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
Run it
cd substack
uv init --package . 2>/dev/null || true
uv add pyyaml
uv run python build_calendar.py
What you should see
Two files. extraction_table.md is a Markdown table, one row per post, chronological, showing the date, source chapter, arc, title, standalone hook, and embargo status. editorial_calendar.json is the same schedule as structured data with a posts array, ready for the substack-pipeline workflow to consume. The series leads with the highest lead-worthiness non-embargoed seed (with the scores above, "Your charts are lying and you can't tell" from chapter 9.1, or "What an eval actually is" from 3.1, depending on the exact tie-break), arcs run in blocks, and the one embargoed post, chapter 7.6's measured reasoning delta, is scheduled after the 2026-11-15 defense date rather than in its natural arc position. Now flip embargo: true to false on that 7.6 seed and re-run: the sequencer places it in the middle of the "closing the loop" arc, before the defense, and the assertion at the bottom fires with EMBARGO LEAK in schedule. That failing assertion is the same hard gate that runs through all of Part IX. The book decides what's true; the reproducibility package decides what ships; and this calendar decides what gets said in public, and when, without ever letting the unpublished result out the door before its time.
"I wrote a book, then reverse-engineered the newsletter." A meta post about turning a finished long-form work into a serialized newsletter that actually grows an audience, the opposite of publishing chapter by chapter. The method: score every idea on standalone-ness, pull, and whether it's under embargo, then sequence for hooks instead of for the table of contents, leading with your most self-contained surprise and saving the big result for when the audience is largest. The punchline is that the whole calendar is generated code with a hard gate that physically cannot schedule an embargoed result before the date it's allowed out.
Appendix A: VRAM arithmetic tables
Every serving and training decision in this book is an accounting problem against one number: the 16 GiB of GDDR7 on the RTX 5080 (the baseline machine). This appendix precomputes that accounting for every model and config the book uses, so that when a chapter says "the weights are GiB" or "this leaves for cache" the number is already sitting here with its formula above it. Everything is regenerable: each table is preceded by the equation that produced it, so when a model revision or a dtype changes you re-run the arithmetic rather than trusting a stale figure.
Two conventions hold throughout, both inherited from Tensors, autograd, and number formats and KV cache arithmetic:
- GiB vs GB. Memory capacity is binary: . Vendor throughput and bandwidth are decimal: . The card is 16 GiB of capacity; its bandwidth is ~960 GB/s. I keep the units explicit because mixing them is a ~7% error that hides exactly at the margin where things stop fitting.
- Measured vs derived. Every number here is derived arithmetic unless it
carries the tag
(measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver). Derived numbers are exact given their inputs; the inputs that must be confirmed on-device (activation overhead, allocator slack, real weight-file sizes) are flagged at each table.
Bytes per parameter, by dtype
The atom of every weight budget is numel × bytes_per_element, from Tensors,
autograd, and number formats. For the quantized formats the effective figure
includes the per-group scales, so it is not a clean power of two.
A one-line gloss on the names in the column below, so the table reads without a detour:
- FP32 / FP16 / BF16 / FP8 are floating-point: a sign bit, an exponent (which buys range), and a mantissa (which buys precision); fewer total bits buy memory. BF16 keeps FP32's full exponent, its whole range, at half the bytes, which is why mixed-precision training lives in it.
- INT8 / INT4 are integer quantization: map weights onto a small grid of evenly spaced integers with a stored scale factor.
- NF4 ("NormalFloat4") is the 4-bit format QLoRA freezes weights in; its 16 levels sit at the quantiles of a normal distribution (weights are roughly Gaussian), so it spends precision where the mass is. ~4.13 effective bits once the block scale is counted.
- MXFP4 ("microscaling FP4") is the 4-bit format gpt-oss ships in: 4-bit floats sharing one 8-bit (E8M0) scale per small block.
- AWQ / GPTQ are not storage dtypes but post-training quantization methods: they decide how to round a trained model's weights down to ~4 bits (AWQ protects activation-salient channels; GPTQ uses second-order / Hessian information), and the result is stored as INT4-with-group-scales.
Chapter 1.1 (Tensors, autograd, and number formats) walks the float formats bit by bit; chapter 2.3 (Quantization: theory and formats) derives the methods. Appendix D glosses the acronyms.
| dtype | layout (s, e, m) | bits/param | (byte/param) | notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FP32 | 1, 8, 23 | 32 | 4.0 | master weights, optimizer state |
| BF16 / FP16 | 1, 8, 7 / 1, 5, 10 | 16 | 2.0 | default working dtype on Blackwell |
| FP8 (e4m3 / e5m2) | 1, 4, 3 / 1, 5, 2 | 8 | 1.0 | inference weights / KV; native on Blackwell |
| INT4 / AWQ | integer + group scale | ~4.5 | ~0.56 | 4 bits + FP16 scale per group-128 |
| NF4 (+ double-quant) | 4-bit quantile + scale | ~4.13 | ~0.516 | QLoRA base weights; block 64, DQ block 256 |
| MXFP4 (e2m1 + E8M0) | 4-bit float + block scale | ~4.25 | ~0.53 | gpt-oss; block 32, shared power-of-two scale |
INT4/AWQ store one FP16 scale (and sometimes a zero-point) per group of 128 weights: bits, and real checkpoints round up to ~4.5 with zero-points and packing overhead. NF4 with double quantization is (one FP32 absmax per block of 64) compressed by a second quantization of those absmaxes to bits. MXFP4 is bits. These are derived from the Quantization: theory and formats chapter; confirm the exact bit-width against the specific checkpoint, since packing conventions differ.
Weight budgets for the serving repertoire
Parameter counts are the published totals; verify against each model's
config.json and safetensors index, since revisions move them.
| Model | dtype | (byte) | (GiB) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-8B | BF16 | 2.0 | 15.3 | ||
| Qwen3-8B | FP8 | 1.0 | 7.6 | ||
| Qwen3-14B | BF16 | 2.0 | 27.6 (does not fit) | ||
| Qwen3-14B | AWQ 4-bit | 0.56 | 7.7 | ||
| gpt-oss-20b | total | MXFP4 | 0.53 | ~10.4* |
*The ~10.4 GiB gpt-oss figure is the naive MXFP4-only estimate (all params at 0.53 byte). The shipped checkpoint is ~12-13 GiB because attention, embeddings, and the router are kept at higher precision; only the expert MLPs are MXFP4.
The card is 16 GiB. vLLM claims a fraction via --gpu-memory-utilization; the
rest is weights + activation/CUDA-graph overhead (~1 GiB, measure it) + KV pool.
- Qwen3-8B BF16 at 15.3 GiB is right at the ceiling: KV pool is near zero, so
you run short
--max-model-lenand batch ~1, or drop to FP8 KV. This tension is the honest reason the repertoire also carries a 4-bit 14B. - Qwen3-14B AWQ at 7.7 GiB leaves ~5.9 GiB of KV pool at
util=0.92. This is the workhorse: quantizing the weights buys concurrency and context. - gpt-oss-20b MXFP4 at ~10.4 GiB is the naive figure: it MXFP4-counts all params. The real checkpoint is larger, ~12-13 GiB, because attention, embeddings, and the router stay in higher precision and only the expert MLPs are MXFP4. So the KV pool it leaves is tighter than 10.4 suggests; confirm the on-disk safetensors size before promising context. Being an MoE, its decode cost is still set by active experts, not total params (see below).
The ~1 GiB overhead and the real weight-file sizes (gpt-oss especially) are the placeholders to pin on the machine: record value, date, driver.
Per-token KV-cache bytes
From KV cache arithmetic, one token caches a K and a V vector per layer, each of width :
with layers, KV heads (GQA makes this smaller than the attention-head
count), head dim, bytes per cached element (2 for BF16, 1 for FP8), and
the leading 2 for keys and values. Pull , , from config.json
(num_hidden_layers, num_key_value_heads, head_dim).
| Model | BF16 | FP8 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-4B | 36 | 8 | 128 | 144 KiB | 72 KiB |
| Qwen3-8B | 36 | 8 | 128 | 144 KiB | 72 KiB |
| Qwen3-14B | 40 | 8 | 128 | 160 KiB | 80 KiB |
| gpt-oss-20b | 24 | 8 | 64 | 48 KiB (ceiling) | 24 KiB |
Worked, BF16: Qwen3-8B ; Qwen3-14B ; gpt-oss .
gpt-oss-20b alternates sliding-window and full-attention layers, so its 48 KiB/tok is an upper bound that overcounts at long context (the sliding layers saturate at their window). Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B share , so they have identical per-token KV cost, which matters when the 4B is the training policy and the 8B is a serving target. Always confirm against the KV-block count vLLM prints at boot.
Total KV at representative context and concurrency
Context and concurrency trade off on a hyperbola: double the promised context and you halve the seats. Per-sequence KV (one sequence at the given context):
| Qwen3-8B BF16 | Qwen3-8B FP8 | Qwen3-14B BF16 | gpt-oss BF16 (ceiling) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,096 | 0.56 GiB | 0.28 GiB | 0.625 GiB | 0.19 GiB |
| 8,192 | 1.12 GiB | 0.56 GiB | 1.25 GiB | 0.38 GiB |
| 16,384 | 2.25 GiB | 1.12 GiB | 2.50 GiB | 0.75 GiB |
| 32,768 | 4.50 GiB | 2.25 GiB | 5.00 GiB | 1.50 GiB |
Pool: (BF16 KV).
| KV/seq | max concurrent seqs | |
|---|---|---|
| 4,096 | 0.625 GiB | |
| 8,192 | 1.25 GiB | |
| 16,384 | 2.50 GiB | |
| 32,768 | 5.00 GiB |
Switching KV to FP8 (--kv-cache-dtype fp8) halves and doubles
every seat count for a fraction of a point of eval metric (measure it with the
Quantization harness). The 5.9 GiB pool depends on the ~1 GiB overhead estimate;
pin it on the machine and re-derive.
Decode-throughput ceilings (bandwidth budget)
Not VRAM but the other side of the same coin. From Prefill, decode, and the roofline, decode at batch 1 is memory-bound, so tokens per second cannot exceed bandwidth divided by bytes read per token:
| Model | (byte/tok) | |
|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-8B BF16 | ~59 | |
| Qwen3-14B AWQ | ~116 | |
| gpt-oss-20b MXFP4 (active ) | ~384 |
These are ceilings, not predictions; the real measured tok/s sits under them by the kernel-overhead + sampling + KV-read gap the roofline lab plots. Record measured values with date and driver.
QLoRA training budget for a 4B policy
The training budgets are where the memory chapter's "4-16x inference" claim gets paid out. From LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically: the base weights are frozen in NF4 (no grads, no optimizer state); only the low-rank adapters are trainable, so optimizer state is tiny. The four accounts are base + adapters + optimizer + activations.
Base (frozen, NF4 + double-quant). with :
Adapter trainable params. For LoRA rank on a linear of shape , the update adds params. Summed over target modules q,k,v,o,gate,up,down and layers of Qwen3-4B (, q width , kv width , MLP width ) at :
Adapter, grad, optimizer. Adapters in BF16, grads in BF16, AdamW keeps two FP32 moments plus an FP32 master copy (from Where memory goes: training vs inference, AdamW = 2 extra copies):
| Account | formula | bytes | GiB |
|---|---|---|---|
| base NF4 (frozen) | 1.92 | ||
| adapter params (BF16) | 0.06 | ||
| adapter grads (BF16) | 0.06 | ||
| AdamW (FP32×2) | 0.25 | ||
| FP32 master (optional) | 0.12 | ||
| static subtotal | ~2.4 | ||
| activations (ckpt) | measured | — | 2-5 |
The static footprint is ~2.4 GiB; the swing variable is activations, which scale with batch size, sequence length, and whether gradient checkpointing is on. With checkpointing (trade compute to recompute activations in backward), a seq-len-2048, small-batch QLoRA on the 4B fits with wide headroom on 16 GiB. The adapter+optimizer accounts are trivially small precisely because QLoRA freezes the base: that is the whole point. The activation figure is the one to measure on the machine (record value, date, driver); everything else is exact.
GRPO training budget on 16 GiB
GRPO (from GRPO and GRPO on 16GB) adds a generation phase to the QLoRA budget: for each prompt it samples a group of completions, scores them, and takes a group-relative advantage. So on top of the QLoRA static footprint you pay for (a) the KV cache of the generation rollouts and (b) a reference-policy forward for the KL term. With Unsloth the generation runs on the same 4-bit base, so there is no second copy of weights; the extra cost is KV and activations.
Generation KV. completions per prompt, each up to tokens plus a prompt of , at the 4B's . I use the actual GRPO on 16GB config (, , so ) so this line matches that chapter's budget:
For , , ():
This is the live KV floor; vLLM claims a larger slab (~2.5 GiB) sized by
gpu_memory_utilization and pages completions into it. The table below counts
the slab, and the 8-bit AdamW optimizer (Unsloth's default), so its total
reconciles with GRPO on 16GB's ~6.9 GiB rather than the FP32-AdamW QLoRA table
above.
| Account | source | GiB |
|---|---|---|
| CUDA context + allocator + Triton cache | measure (per 7.2) | ~0.8 |
| base NF4 (frozen, shared serve+train) | QLoRA table | 1.93 |
| adapter + grad + 8-bit AdamW | QLoRA table (8-bit opt) | ~0.18 |
| generation KV, vLLM slab (, 1024 tok; live floor 1.13) | formula above | ~2.5 |
| reference-policy KL (recompute, no weight copy) | activations | measured |
| training activations (ckpt) | measured | ~1.5 |
| total | ~6.9 |
When GRPO OOMs, pull these in order (each is a term in the budget above):
- Group size — linear in generation KV. halves the 1.13 GiB live KV (and the slab that pages it).
- Generation length — linear in generation KV and in rollout time. Cap it to what the reward actually needs.
- KV dtype FP8 — halves , halving generation KV.
- Batch / gradient accumulation — trade wall-clock for activation memory; accumulate over micro-batches instead of one big batch.
- Gradient checkpointing — already assumed on; it is the difference between "fits" and "OOM" for activations.
- Policy size — the repertoire caps training policies at B for exactly this reason; a 1.7B policy roughly halves base + activations.
The full budget lands at ~6.9 GiB (mirroring GRPO on 16GB line for line),
leaving ~9 GiB of headroom at util=0.9. Activations and the reference-KL
forward are the measured quantities; record them with date and driver, and
reconcile against nvidia-smi peak.
Regenerating these tables
Every table above is parameters × formula. The one-file calculator that produces
them (weights, KV, decode ceiling, QLoRA/GRPO budgets) lives with the KV lab
(predict.py in KV cache arithmetic) and the roofline lab (ceiling.py in
Prefill, decode, and the roofline). When a driver update, a vLLM release, or a
model revision changes an input, re-run those scripts rather than editing a number
here by hand, and re-stamp any measured overhead with its new date and driver.
Appendix B: CLI cheatsheets
One-screen references for the seven command-line tools the loop runs on. These are
not tutorials; each tool earns a full treatment in its chapter (uv in uv and the
two-environment doctrine, vLLM in vLLM operations, Inspect in Inspect I and
Inspect II, lm-eval in lm-evaluation-harness and comparability, MLflow in
Containers and the tracking spine). This is the copy-pasteable distillation you
reach for once you already know what each command does. Every command assumes the
baseline machine and the uv-everywhere doctrine: no global pip, no bare
python, every invocation prefixed with uv run so it resolves against the
project's locked environment.
uv
The toolchain: Python version pinning, virtualenvs, lockfiles, and a runner. The
two-environment doctrine keeps serve/ and train/ as separate uv projects with
separate committed uv.lock files, because vLLM and Unsloth pin conflicting
versions of torch and friends.
uv init serve # new project -> pyproject.toml + .python-version
cd serve
uv python pin 3.12 # write .python-version; uv fetches the interpreter
uv add "vllm>=0.6" # add a dep, resolve, update uv.lock, sync .venv
uv add --dev pytest ruff # dev-only deps
uv remove requests # drop a dep
uv lock # re-resolve and rewrite uv.lock (no install)
uv lock --upgrade-package vllm # bump one package within constraints
uv sync # make .venv exactly match uv.lock (CI-safe)
uv sync --frozen # sync but fail if the lock is stale (reproducible)
uv run python train.py # run inside the project env, no activation needed
uv run vllm serve ... # any console script the deps installed
uv run --with matplotlib plot.py # one-off extra dep, not added to the project
uvx ruff check . # run a tool in an ephemeral env (== uv tool run)
uv tree # show the resolved dependency graph
uv pip list # inspect the current env
Commit uv.lock. uv sync --frozen in CI and on the burst box is the whole
reproducibility promise: it fails loudly if the lock and pyproject.toml have
drifted instead of silently resolving something new. Keep serve/uv.lock and
train/uv.lock as two independent files; never share one env between them.
vllm serve
The OpenAI-compatible server. The repertoire commands below are the three configs from the book, each annotated with the flags that matter on 16 GiB. Ports default to 8000; the KV and memory flags are derived in KV cache arithmetic.
uv run vllm serve Qwen/Qwen3-8B \
--dtype bfloat16 \
--max-model-len 8192 \ # per-seq context ceiling S_ctx
--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92 \ # fraction of 16 GiB vLLM may claim
--kv-cache-dtype fp8 \ # halve B_tok to claw back KV pool
--max-num-seqs 8 # hard cap on concurrency N_seq
uv run vllm serve Qwen/Qwen3-14B-AWQ \
--quantization awq_marlin \ # Marlin kernel; faster than plain awq
--max-model-len 8192 \
--gpu-memory-utilization 0.92 \
--max-num-seqs 16
uv run vllm serve openai/gpt-oss-20b \
--max-model-len 8192 \
--gpu-memory-utilization 0.90 \
--max-num-seqs 8
--max-model-len N # lowers worst-case KV reservation; admit more seqs
--max-num-seqs N # min(this, what KV pool allows) sets concurrency
--gpu-memory-utilization F # sets M_kv; too high starves activations -> OOM
--kv-cache-dtype fp8 # halves per-token KV bytes
--quantization awq_marlin # awq | awq_marlin | gptq_marlin | fp8 | mxfp4
--enable-chunked-prefill # interleave prefill with decode; smooths latency
--served-model-name NAME # the model id clients pass (decouple from repo path)
--api-key SECRET # require a bearer token
curl http://localhost:8000/v1/models # is it up? what model id?
curl http://localhost:8000/v1/chat/completions \
-H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-d '{"model":"Qwen/Qwen3-8B","messages":[{"role":"user","content":"hi"}]}'
At boot, watch the log line reporting GPU KV cache blocks: blocks × block-size (16 tok default) = total cached tokens = your real budget. That is the number to reconcile against the hand calculation.
inspect (Inspect AI)
The evals framework: tasks are datasets + solvers + scorers. Point it at the local vLLM server through its OpenAI-compatible endpoint.
export INSPECT_EVAL_MODEL=openai/Qwen/Qwen3-8B
export OPENAI_BASE_URL=http://localhost:8000/v1
export OPENAI_API_KEY=EMPTY
uv run inspect eval tasks.py # run every task in the file
uv run inspect eval tasks.py@my_task # one task by name
uv run inspect eval tasks.py \
--model openai/Qwen/Qwen3-8B \ # override model
--model-base-url http://localhost:8000/v1 \
--limit 100 \ # first 100 samples (smoke test)
--temperature 0.0 \ # deterministic-ish decoding
--max-connections 16 \ # concurrent requests to the server
--log-dir logs/ # where .eval logs land
uv run inspect view --log-dir logs/ # local web viewer for .eval logs
uv run inspect log dump logs/2026-....eval # dump one log as JSON
uv run inspect log list --log-dir logs/ # enumerate runs
Inspect talks to vLLM as openai/<model-id>, where <model-id> must match what
vllm serve advertises (the repo path unless you set --served-model-name).
A mismatch is a 404 from the server, not an Inspect error, so check
/v1/models first. --max-connections should sit at or below the server's
--max-num-seqs, or requests queue and your wall-clock inflates.
lm_eval (lm-evaluation-harness)
The comparability harness: standardized tasks (MMLU, GSM8K, ...) with fixed
few-shot prompts, used when a number needs to line up with published leaderboards.
Use local-completions to hit the local vLLM server.
uv run lm_eval \
--model local-completions \
--model_args model=Qwen/Qwen3-8B,base_url=http://localhost:8000/v1/completions,num_concurrent=16,tokenized_requests=False \
--tasks gsm8k,mmlu \
--num_fewshot 5 \
--batch_size auto \
--output_path results/ \
--log_samples # persist per-sample outputs for auditing
--tasks LIST # comma-separated; `lm_eval --tasks list` to enumerate
--num_fewshot K # shots in the prompt; MUST match the number you compare to
--limit N # subsample for a smoke test
--apply_chat_template # wrap prompts in the model's chat template
--fewshot_as_multiturn # few-shot examples as prior turns, not one blob
--gen_kwargs temperature=0,max_gen_toks=512
The single biggest source of "my MMLU doesn't match the paper" is --num_fewshot
and whether a chat template was applied. Comparability means fixing both to the
reference recipe; the harness will happily give you a different, internally
consistent number otherwise. See lm-evaluation-harness and comparability.
mlflow
The tracking spine: experiment metadata, params, metrics, and artifacts, from Containers and the tracking spine. Run the server against a local backing store so every eval and training run is logged.
uv run mlflow server \
--backend-store-uri sqlite:///mlflow.db \ # run metadata
--artifacts-destination ./mlartifacts \ # logged files
--host 127.0.0.1 --port 5000
# UI is served at http://127.0.0.1:5000 by the same process
import mlflow
mlflow.set_tracking_uri("http://127.0.0.1:5000")
mlflow.set_experiment("grpo-4b")
with mlflow.start_run(run_name="r16-g8"):
mlflow.log_params({"rank": 16, "group_size": 8, "lr": 1e-6})
mlflow.log_metric("reward_mean", 0.42, step=100)
mlflow.log_metric("pass_at_1", 0.31, step=100)
mlflow.log_artifact("roofline.png") # any file
mlflow.set_tag("driver", "570-open") # stamp the baseline
uv run mlflow runs list --experiment-id 1
uv run mlflow artifacts download --run-id <id> --dst-path ./pulled
nvidia-smi / nvtop
The GPU dashboard. nvidia-smi is the ground truth for memory and driver;
nvtop is the live top-like view.
nvidia-smi # snapshot: mem, util, procs, driver
nvidia-smi -l 1 # refresh every 1 s
watch -n 1 nvidia-smi # same, via watch
nvidia-smi --query-gpu=memory.used,memory.total,utilization.gpu,temperature.gpu,clocks.sm --format=csv -l 1
nvidia-smi --query-compute-apps=pid,used_memory --format=csv # who holds VRAM
nvidia-smi -q -d CLOCK # current vs max SM/mem clocks (throttling?)
nvidia-smi --gpu-reset # last resort after a wedged process (root)
uv run --with nvitop nvitop # nvitop is the pip-installable one (note the i)
sudo apt install nvtop; nvtop # nvtop itself is an apt package, not on PyPI
nvidia-smi reports memory the driver has handed out, which reads higher than
your summed parameter bytes because of the CUDA context (~few hundred MiB) and the
caching allocator's block rounding. When reconciling a VRAM budget, expect
nvidia-smi > arithmetic by that slack, not equal to it. If it shows "No devices
were found", that is the driver, not your code; see Appendix C.
rsync
The burst-sync workhorse: move checkpoints and run artifacts between the NVMe working tier, the 5TB NAS archive, and the Lambda burst box (from Storage tiers and cache discipline and The Lambda workflow).
# archive a finished run to the NAS (mirror, delete extras, preserve times)
rsync -avh --delete ./runs/grpo-4b/ /mnt/nas/archive/grpo-4b/
# pull weights up to the burst box before a job (resume-safe, show progress)
rsync -avhP ./models/ user@burst:/workspace/models/
# bring results back, only what changed, dry-run first
rsync -avhn user@burst:/workspace/runs/ ./runs/ # -n = dry run, preview only
rsync -avh user@burst:/workspace/runs/ ./runs/ # then for real
# checkpoint sync mid-run without clobbering newer files
rsync -avh --update ./checkpoints/ /mnt/nas/checkpoints/
-a archive: recurse + preserve perms, times, symlinks
-v verbose; -h human-readable sizes
-P --partial --progress: resume interrupted transfers, show a bar
--delete make dest an exact mirror of source (dangerous: deletes extras)
--update skip files that are newer on the receiver
-n dry run: print what would transfer, change nothing
-z compress in transit (worth it over the network to burst; skip on LAN/NAS)
--exclude='*.tmp' skip scratch files
A trailing slash on the source (./runs/) copies the contents; no trailing slash
(./runs) copies the directory itself into the dest. This one character is the
difference between dest/file and dest/runs/file. Always -n a --delete first;
it is the command that eats archives.
Appendix C: Troubleshooting bestiary
A symptom-to-cause-to-fix catalogue for this exact stack: Blackwell RTX 5080 on
Ubuntu 24.04 with the 570-open driver, uv-managed serve and train environments,
vLLM for inference, and Unsloth for training. Each entry is a short field note, not
an essay. This appendix accretes: every genuinely new failure I hit while running
the loop gets a new entry with the date I hit it and the driver I hit it under, so
that future-me searching an error string lands on the fix and not a rediscovery.
The nastiest ones (the failures that cost me an evening) carry a gotcha.
Entries are grouped by where in the loop they bite: driver and boot, serving, quantized loading, training, evaluation, and storage.
Driver and boot
nvidia-smi shows "No devices were found" or a driver/library mismatch
Symptom. nvidia-smi prints No devices were found, or
Failed to initialize NVML: Driver/library version mismatch.
Cause. Either the kernel module is not loaded (common after a kernel update rebuilt the module against a new kernel but the old one is still in memory), or the userspace libraries and the loaded kernel module are on different versions (a partial upgrade). On Blackwell the module must be the open flavor.
Fix.
cat /proc/driver/nvidia/version # what module is actually loaded
dpkg -l | grep -i nvidia # what packages are installed
nvidia-smi # confirm after each step
sudo modprobe nvidia # try loading the module
# mismatch after an upgrade -> reboot so userspace and kernel module realign
sudo reboot
If the module refuses to load, confirm you are on nvidia-driver-570-open (the
open-kernel-module branch), not the proprietary -570, which does not support this
card cleanly. See Ubuntu 24.04 on Blackwell.
A Driver/library version mismatch after apt upgrade almost always means the DKMS
module rebuilt but the running kernel still holds the old one. You cannot fix it
live; a reboot is the fix, not modprobe. Do not chase it with reinstalls first.
Secure Boot blocks the NVIDIA module
Symptom. Driver installs cleanly but nvidia-smi finds no device; dmesg
shows Loading of unsigned module is rejected or module verification failed.
Cause. Secure Boot refuses to load the unsigned out-of-tree NVIDIA kernel module.
Fix. Either enroll a Machine Owner Key (MOK) so the module can be signed and trusted, or disable Secure Boot in firmware.
mokutil --sb-state # is Secure Boot enabled?
sudo update-secureboot-policy --enroll-key # enroll DKMS MOK, set a password
sudo reboot # complete MOK enrollment at the blue screen
On reboot, the MOK Manager (blue screen) prompts you to enroll the key with the password you set. Miss it and the module stays blocked. The firmware route is covered in Firmware first: BIOS and the Windows send-off.
Serving (vLLM)
CUDA out of memory at server startup
Symptom. vllm serve dies ~30 s after boot with
torch.OutOfMemoryError: CUDA out of memory or No available memory for the cache blocks.
Cause. Weights + activation overhead + requested KV pool exceeds what
--gpu-memory-utilization claimed, or the model simply does not fit (Qwen3-8B BF16
at 15.3 GiB is at the edge). This is the KV cache arithmetic budget failing.
Fix (levers, bluntest first).
--max-model-len 4096 # smaller S_ctx -> smaller worst-case KV reservation
--kv-cache-dtype fp8 # halve per-token KV bytes
--gpu-memory-utilization 0.95 # claim more of the 16 GiB (careful: starves overhead)
--max-num-seqs 4 # cap concurrency
--quantization awq_marlin # or switch to the 4-bit 14B to free weight bytes
If BF16 8B will not fit with any KV pool, that is expected: move to FP8 KV or the AWQ 14B. Re-derive from Appendix A before guessing.
vLLM: KV cache won't fit / "not enough KV cache blocks"
Symptom. Boot log reports very few or zero GPU KV cache blocks; or requests with long prompts are rejected with a context-length error.
Cause. After weights and overhead there is almost nothing left for KV, so the
pool cannot hold even one sequence at the requested --max-model-len.
Fix. Shrink the promised context or the weight footprint. The block count vLLM
prints × 16 tokens is your total cached-token budget; if that is smaller than one
--max-model-len, no sequence fits. Lower --max-model-len, switch to FP8 KV, or
quantize the weights. Reconcile against the hand calculation in KV cache
arithmetic (predict.py).
gpt-oss-20b's sliding-window layers make its real KV need smaller than the naive formula predicts, so trust the server's reported block count over the arithmetic for that model. For the dense Qwen3 models the arithmetic and the block count should agree within allocator slack; a wild disagreement means you read or from the wrong config revision.
AWQ or MXFP4 model fails to load
Symptom. ValueError: Unknown quantization method, a Marlin kernel error, or
unsupported dtype on Blackwell.
Cause. Wrong --quantization value, a kernel that is not built for
Blackwell/sm_120 in the pinned vLLM, or a checkpoint whose packing does not match
the requested method.
Fix.
# AWQ: prefer the marlin kernel; fall back to plain awq if marlin errors
--quantization awq_marlin # or: awq
# GPTQ checkpoints:
--quantization gptq_marlin
# gpt-oss ships MXFP4; let vLLM detect it, or name it explicitly
--quantization mxfp4
uv pip show vllm # confirm a Blackwell-capable version is pinned
If a Marlin kernel throws on sm_120, upgrade vLLM within the lock
(uv lock --upgrade-package vllm) to a build with Blackwell kernels, then
uv sync. Match the --quantization flag to how the checkpoint was actually
quantized; AWQ weights will not load as GPTQ.
Training (Unsloth / QLoRA / GRPO)
CUDA out of memory during training
Symptom. OOM at the first backward, or partway into GRPO generation.
Cause. Activations, generation KV, or optimizer state overran the budget. From Appendix A, the training budget is base + adapters + optimizer + activations + (for GRPO) generation KV.
Fix (levers, mapped to budget terms).
# activations:
gradient_checkpointing = "unsloth" # recompute activations in backward
per_device_train_batch_size = 1
gradient_accumulation_steps = 8 # same effective batch, less peak memory
max_seq_length = 2048 # shorter sequences -> fewer activations
# GRPO generation KV (see GRPO on 16GB):
num_generations = 4 # group size G; linear in generation KV
max_completion_length = 768 # S_gen; linear in generation KV
# optimizer:
optim = "adamw_8bit" # 8-bit Adam moments; smaller than FP32 m,v
Order of impact for GRPO OOM: group size , then generation length, then batch, then checkpointing. See the GRPO lever list in Appendix A.
Unsloth version-pin conflicts
Symptom. uv add unsloth fails to resolve, or import errors like
cannot import name ... from transformers, or a torch/xformers/triton ABI mismatch
at import.
Cause. Unsloth pins tight, sometimes pre-release, versions of torch, transformers, trl, xformers, and triton; these collide with whatever vLLM wants, which is exactly why serve and train are separate uv projects.
Fix.
# keep train/ isolated from serve/ (the two-environment doctrine)
cd train
uv add "unsloth" "unsloth-zoo" "trl" "transformers" # let unsloth drive the pins
uv lock # inspect the resolution
uv tree | grep -E "torch|transformers|trl|xformers|triton"
If resolution fails, pin the versions Unsloth's release notes call for explicitly,
lock, and uv sync --frozen. Never install Unsloth into the serve env; that is the
conflict you are trying to avoid.
The most confusing Unsloth failures are silent import-time ABI mismatches (torch
built against one CUDA, triton expecting another) that look like bugs in your
training code. When a fresh uv sync of the train env suddenly breaks after an
upstream release, suspect the pins before your script. Freeze a known-good
train/uv.lock and only bump it deliberately.
Evaluation
Tokenizer or chat-template mismatch
Symptom. Eval scores are inexplicably low; model outputs look truncated, double-wrapped in special tokens, or ignore the instruction; or the served model id does not match what the eval requests (404).
Cause. The prompt was not wrapped in the model's chat template, or was wrapped
twice, or a different tokenizer/template than training was used. Reasoning models
are especially sensitive to their <think> scaffolding.
Fix.
# Inspect: confirm the served model id matches
curl http://localhost:8000/v1/models
# lm_eval: apply the chat template explicitly when comparing to chat-tuned numbers
--apply_chat_template --fewshot_as_multiturn
Verify the template by dumping one fully-rendered prompt (Inspect's log viewer or
lm-eval's --log_samples) and eyeballing that the special tokens appear exactly
once. A model served without --served-model-name advertises its repo path; the
eval must request that exact string. See lm-evaluation-harness and comparability
and Judge models.
Non-determinism across eval runs
Symptom. The same eval on the same model gives different scores run to run.
Cause. Sampling temperature above 0, batching-order effects in the server, floating-point non-associativity across different batch shapes, and genuine Monte-Carlo variance in the eval itself. Some of this is irreducible; the fix is to separate real variance from noise, not to pretend it is zero.
Fix.
--temperature 0.0 # greedy decoding removes sampling noise
--seed 0 # pin the sampler seed where the tool exposes one
Even at temperature 0, exact scores can wobble by a sample or two because vLLM's continuous batching changes reduction order. Do not chase the last decimal; instead report a bootstrap confidence interval (from The statistics of evals) so a real delta is distinguishable from run-to-run jitter. If you need bitwise repeatability, fix batch size and disable chunked prefill, and accept the throughput cost.
Storage
NAS mount drops mid-run
Symptom. A training or eval job stalls or dies with Input/output error,
Stale file handle, or Transport endpoint is not connected, and ls /mnt/nas
hangs.
Cause. The network mount (NFS/SMB to the 5TB NAS) dropped, and a process writing checkpoints or reading a dataset across it blocked or errored. Nothing in the hot path should live on the NAS, but a checkpoint-archive step or a dataset left there will take the run down with it.
Fix.
mount | grep nas # is it actually mounted?
sudo umount -l /mnt/nas # lazy unmount a wedged handle
sudo mount -a # remount from /etc/fstab
Prevention is the real fix: keep the working set (active weights, dataset,
in-flight checkpoints) on the 1TB NVMe and only rsync to the NAS after a run
completes, per Storage tiers and cache discipline. Mount the NAS with soft and
a timeout so a drop returns an error instead of hanging forever, and write
checkpoints locally, then sync.
A hard NFS mount will block a process forever on a dropped link, and that
process is often unkillable (D state), which can force a reboot and cost you the
run. Use soft,timeo=,retrans= for the archive mount so a drop fails fast, and
never point a checkpoint-writer directly at the NAS.
How this appendix grows
New failures get appended under the group they belong to, each in the same
symptom-to-cause-to-fix shape, stamped with the date and driver they were hit
under. The value of this bestiary is entirely in it being my failures on this
machine, so the temptation to pad it with generic StackOverflow answers is the
thing to resist. If a fix required a real measurement (a memory figure, a
throughput cliff), record it as (measured on the baseline machine — record value, date, driver) like everywhere else in the book.
Appendix D: Glossary
Precise, one-paragraph definitions of the book's load-bearing terms, alphabetized and cross-linked. Each entry defines the term as the book uses it, not in full generality: where a term has a whole chapter, the definition is the portable summary and the chapter is the real treatment. Cross-references to other glossary entries are italicized; cross-references to chapters use the chapter's name.
Advantage
How much better an action (here, a generated token or completion) was than a baseline expectation, in the classical form: the action-value minus the state-value. Subtracting the baseline leaves the policy gradient unbiased but cuts its variance, because you reinforce what beat expectation rather than everything with positive return. In GRPO the advantage is computed group-relative: the reward of each completion minus the mean reward of its group, with no learned value function at all. See Actor-critic and GAE and The policy gradient theorem.
AWQ (Activation-aware Weight Quantization)
A weight-only 4-bit quantization method that protects the small fraction of weight
channels which multiply against large-magnitude activations, scaling them before
quantizing so their precision survives. It stores 4-bit integers plus a per-group
(typically group-128) FP16 scale, costing ~4.5 effective bits per parameter
(~0.56 byte). It is the book's serving workhorse because quantizing Qwen3-14B to
~7.7 GiB frees several GiB of KV cache, buying concurrency and context. Served in
vLLM with --quantization awq_marlin. See Quantization: theory and formats.
Backdoor criterion
A graphical rule for choosing what to condition on so a causal effect is identifiable: a set of variables satisfies it (relative to a treatment-outcome pair) if blocks every path from treatment to outcome that starts with an arrow into the treatment, and contains no descendant of the treatment. Blocking those backdoor paths removes confounding without opening a collider. In this book it is the tool for asking whether a measured "reasoning delta" between two models is a clean effect or a spurious association through a shared cause. See Identification: backdoor and front-door and d-separation.
BF16 (bfloat16)
A 16-bit floating-point format laid out (1 sign, 8 exponent, 7 mantissa), keeping FP32's full exponent range while spending only 7 bits on precision (). The full exponent means nothing overflows or underflows the way it does in FP16, so BF16 training needs no loss scaling. It is 2 bytes per element and the default working dtype for both inference and training on the Blackwell baseline machine. See Tensors, autograd, and number formats.
Bootstrap CI (confidence interval)
An interval estimate for a metric (accuracy, pass@k, a mean reward) computed by resampling the eval set with replacement many times, recomputing the metric on each resample, and reading percentiles off the resulting distribution. It requires no parametric assumption about the metric's sampling distribution, which is why it is the book's default for putting error bars on eval scores and deciding whether a delta between two models is real or run-to-run jitter. See The statistics of evals.
Chunked prefill
A vLLM scheduling technique that breaks a long prompt's prefill into fixed-size
chunks and interleaves them with ongoing decode steps, instead of running the
whole prefill in one blocking pass. It smooths inter-token latency for other
requests when a large prompt arrives, at a small throughput cost. Enabled with
--enable-chunked-prefill. See vLLM internals and prefill/decode.
Continuous batching
The serving strategy that lets sequences enter and leave a running batch at every decode step, rather than waiting for a fixed batch to finish together (static batching). It keeps the GPU busy by backfilling finished slots immediately, and it raises decode throughput by amortizing each weight read across more concurrent tokens. It is why aggregate throughput and per-sequence latency are different axes. See vLLM internals and PagedAttention.
Cross-entropy
The training loss of a language model: the negative log-probability the model assigns to the actual next token, averaged over the sequence, . Minimizing it makes the model's predicted distribution match the data distribution; its exponential is perplexity. It is the objective of pretraining and SFT, and the reference point RL post-training departs from. See The language-modeling objective.
d-separation
The graphical criterion that reads conditional independence off a DAG: two variables are d-separated given a conditioning set if every path between them is blocked by (blocked at a chain or fork whose middle node is in , or at a collider whose middle node and all its descendants are outside ). d-separation is the bridge between the graph and the statistics: separated in the graph implies independent in any distribution the graph describes. It is the machinery behind the backdoor criterion. See DAGs and d-separation.
DAG (directed acyclic graph)
A graph of variables with directed edges and no cycles, used here to encode causal assumptions: an arrow asserts is a direct cause of . The DAG is the object you reason over with d-separation and the backdoor criterion to decide whether an eval comparison is confounded. See DAGs and d-separation and The ladder of causation.
DPO (Direct Preference Optimization)
A post-training method that optimizes a policy directly on preference pairs (chosen vs rejected responses) without training a separate reward model or running an RL loop. It rewrites the RLHF objective so the optimal policy's log-ratio against a frozen reference is an implicit reward, turning alignment into a single classification-style loss. It trades the flexibility of on-policy RL for stability and simplicity. See Direct alignment: DPO and family.
GAE (Generalized Advantage Estimation)
A method for estimating the advantage that interpolates between low-variance, high-bias (one-step) and high-variance, low-bias (full Monte-Carlo) estimates via a parameter , applied to an exponentially-weighted sum of temporal- difference residuals. It is the advantage estimator inside PPO. GRPO drops it in favor of a group-relative baseline. See Actor-critic and GAE.
GQA (Grouped-Query Attention)
An attention variant where multiple query heads share a single key/value head, so the number of KV heads is smaller than the number of attention heads. It is the single most important lever on KV cache size: Qwen3-8B's 32 query heads share just 8 KV heads, a 4x cache reduction that is what makes long-context serving fit on 16 GiB at all. See KV cache arithmetic and Attention from first principles.
GRPO (Group Relative Policy Optimization)
The RL algorithm at the center of the book: for each prompt it samples a group of completions, scores them, and sets each completion's advantage to its reward minus the group's mean reward (optionally divided by the group's standard deviation), then applies a PPO-clip update with a KL divergence penalty to a reference policy. It drops PPO's learned value critic entirely, which is what makes it fit on one 16 GiB GPU. Its pathologies (length bias, std collapse) and fixes are catalogued in GRPO; its 16 GiB budget is in GRPO on 16GB.
KV cache
The stored key and value vectors for every past position, kept so that decode does not recompute them each step. Its per-token size is bytes (keys and values, over all layers, KV-head width, bytes per element), and it is the single most important number in single-GPU serving because after the weights it is the entire budget for context and concurrency. See KV cache arithmetic.
LoRA (Low-Rank Adaptation)
A parameter-efficient fine-tuning method that freezes the base weights and learns a low-rank update (with , , rank ) added to selected linear layers. Only the small adapters carry gradients and optimizer state, which is why training memory collapses to a fraction of full fine-tuning. Combined with a 4-bit frozen base it becomes QLoRA. See LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically.
MXFP4
A 4-bit microscaling floating-point format: each element is an E2M1 float (1 sign, 2 exponent, 1 mantissa, representing only eight magnitudes) and every block of 32 elements shares one 8-bit power-of-two (E8M0) scale. The shared scale slides each block's coarse grid to where its numbers live, giving usable dynamic range at ~4.25 bits per parameter (~0.53 byte). gpt-oss-20b ships in it. See Quantization: theory and formats and Tensors, autograd, and number formats.
NF4 (4-bit NormalFloat)
The 4-bit quantization used by QLoRA for the frozen base weights: a non-uniform grid whose 16 levels are the quantiles of a standard normal, matching the roughly Gaussian distribution of neural-network weights so each level carries equal probability mass. With double quantization (quantizing the per-block scales too) it costs ~4.13 bits per parameter. See LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically.
PagedAttention
vLLM's memory manager for the KV cache: instead of one contiguous reservation per sequence, it allocates the cache in fixed-size blocks (16 tokens by default) from a shared pool, like virtual-memory paging. This eliminates the fragmentation and over-reservation of contiguous caches, letting the card hold far more concurrent sequences, and it is what makes continuous batching memory-efficient. See vLLM internals.
pass@k
An eval metric for generative tasks: the probability that at least one of sampled completions is correct, usually estimated unbiasedly from a larger sample of generations per problem. It rewards a model that can find a solution given a few tries, which is the natural metric for reasoning tasks with a verifiable reward. pass@1 at temperature 0 is the greedy special case. See Metrics and their math.
PPO-clip
The core update of Proximal Policy Optimization: maximize the advantage weighted by the probability ratio between the new and old policy, but clip that ratio to so a single step cannot move the policy too far. The clip is a cheap surrogate for a trust region, keeping updates stable without TRPO's second-order machinery. GRPO uses the same clipped objective with a group-relative advantage. See Trust regions: from TRPO to PPO.
Perplexity
The exponential of the average cross-entropy per token, , interpretable as the effective number of equally- likely choices the model is deciding among at each step. Lower is better; it is the book's intrinsic quality yardstick for measuring the cost of quantization. See The language-modeling objective and Quantization: theory and formats.
Policy gradient
The gradient of expected return with respect to policy parameters, which the policy gradient theorem shows equals for a suitable weighting (return, advantage, ...). It lets you improve a stochastic policy by gradient ascent using only sampled trajectories and their rewards, no model of the environment required. It is the foundation under REINFORCE, PPO, and GRPO. See The policy gradient theorem.
Prefill / decode
The two phases of autoregressive generation. Prefill runs the whole prompt through the network in one parallel forward pass, filling the KV cache and producing the first token; it is compute-bound (arithmetic intensity scales with prompt length). Decode then generates one token per forward pass, reading the cache and every weight to emit a single token; it is memory-bandwidth-bound (intensity ~1). Almost every serving decision is really a choice about which of these two accounts you are drawing from. See Prefill, decode, and the roofline.
QLoRA (Quantized LoRA)
LoRA on top of a base model whose frozen weights are stored in 4-bit NF4: the base is quantized to a fraction of its BF16 size and never updated, while small BF16 adapters carry all the training. It is what lets a 4B policy fine-tune within the 16 GiB budget (base ~1.9 GiB, adapters + optimizer ~0.5 GiB, the rest for activations). See LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically and Appendix A.
RLVR (Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards)
The training paradigm of the book's loop: instead of a learned reward model, the reward is a deterministic program that checks whether an answer is correct (a math solution that evaluates, code that passes tests, a format that parses). Because the reward is a verifiable reward, it cannot be gamed the way a learned model can, and it is exactly what an eval scorer already computes, which is the thesis's central observation: evals are rewards. See RLVR: reinforcement with verifiable rewards and Scorers as rewards.
RoPE (Rotary Position Embedding)
The positional scheme in the model zoo: instead of adding a position vector, it rotates each query and key by an angle proportional to its absolute position, so that their dot product depends only on relative position. It is applied inside attention, extends to longer contexts by scaling the rotation frequencies, and is a fixed function with no learned parameters. See Attention from first principles and The transformer block.
Roofline
The performance model that plots achievable throughput against arithmetic intensity (FLOPs per byte moved), capping it at : below the ridge point a kernel is memory-bound, above it compute-bound. On the baseline machine it yields the hard decode throughput ceiling . See Prefill, decode, and the roofline.
RMSNorm (Root-Mean-Square Normalization)
The normalization layer in the modern transformer block: it rescales each activation vector by its root-mean-square (no mean-subtraction, no bias), then applies a learned per-dimension gain. It is cheaper than LayerNorm and is what Qwen3 and most current open models use. See The transformer block.
Verifiable reward
A reward signal produced by a deterministic checker rather than a learned model: it returns a score by actually verifying the output (running the code, checking the math, matching the required format). Its virtue is that it is hard to hack and identical to what an eval scorer computes, which is what makes RLVR the bridge between evaluation and training in this book. See RLVR: reinforcement with verifiable rewards and Reward hacking and Goodhart.
Appendix E: Reading map
Goal. Pair the seven reference books to the chapters they serve, and suggest an order to read them in relative to the book's five authoring waves.
I lean on seven reference books. None is quoted at length anywhere in the text;
instead each chapter carries a read-along pointer by short key, and this
appendix is the master index behind those pointers. Local copies live in
references/ at the repo root (see that directory's README.md); they are not
distributed with the book.
The seven books
| Key | Book | Primary parts served |
|---|---|---|
| [S&B] | Sutton & Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (2e) | Part V |
| [RLHF] | Lambert, RLHF: LLM Alignment and Post-Training | Parts IV–VI (esp. ch. 5–8) |
| [BRM] | Raschka, Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch) | Parts III, V, VI (ch. 3–8; App. C Qwen3 source) |
| [BLLM] | Raschka, Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) | Part I |
| [MADL] | Chaudhuri, Math and Architectures of Deep Learning | Part I math spine (ch. 2–9) |
| [GAIA] | Hurbans, Grokking AI Algorithms (2e) | Pre-reading only; RL intuition (ch. 10) |
| [CAI] | Ness, Causal AI | Part IV |
Two of these earn special notes. [GAIA] is deliberately light-duty: it overlaps the other texts at lower depth, so it serves as optional pre-reading for RL intuition, never as a chapter dependency. [CAI] earns a full part of its own (Part IV) because judge-model and benchmark-comparison pitfalls are confounding problems, and framing evaluation claims causally is a committee-grade differentiator.
Suggested order
The books are not read cover-to-cover front-to-back; they are read alongside the parts they serve, in roughly the authoring-wave order (spec §8).
- Before anything (optional): skim [GAIA] ch. 10 for gentle RL intuition. Nothing downstream depends on it.
- With Part I (the theory spine): read [MADL] ch. 2–9 as the math backbone and [BLLM] ch. 2–5 as the from-scratch build companion. These two run in parallel with Part I chapter for chapter.
- With Parts II–III (inference and evals): [BRM] ch. 1–3 and its App. C (Qwen3 source) back the model-anatomy and eval-framing chapters.
- With Part IV (causal): [CAI] Parts 1–3, in order, are the spine.
- With Part V (RL foundations): [S&B] is the backbone (ch. 2–4 and ch. 13 carry the most weight), with [BRM] ch. 6–7 and [RLHF] ch. 6 arriving as the material turns to LLM-specific policy optimization.
- With Part VI (post-training): [RLHF] ch. 1–8 is the throughline; [BRM] ch. 4–5 and ch. 8 cover reasoning-time scaling and distillation.
Per-chapter pairings
Every entry below mirrors the read-along admonition in the named chapter.
Chapters with no reference pairing are hands-on or self-contained (Part 0, most
of Part II, and Part IX lean on tooling and the book's own artifacts rather than
outside reading). Part VII does carry read-along pointers, because the loop
chapters lean on [RLHF], [S&B], and [MADL] for the algorithm and kernel math
even as the labs are hands-on; its per-chapter rows are below.
Part I — How LLMs Actually Work
| Chapter | Read-along |
|---|---|
| 1.1 Tensors, autograd, and number formats | [MADL] ch. 2–4 |
| 1.2 Tokenization and embeddings | [BLLM] ch. 2 |
| 1.3 Attention from first principles | [BLLM] ch. 3; [MADL] ch. 7–8 |
| 1.4 The transformer block | [BLLM] ch. 4; [BRM] App. C |
| 1.5 The language-modeling objective | [BLLM] ch. 5 |
| 1.6 Where memory goes: training vs inference | [MADL] ch. 8–9 |
| 1.7 Sampling and decoding | [BRM] ch. 2 |
| 1.8 Anatomy of the open-model zoo | [BRM] ch. 1, App. C |
Part III — Evaluation Engineering
| Chapter | Read-along |
|---|---|
| 3.1 What an eval is | [BRM] ch. 3; [RLHF] Part 3 |
| 3.2 Metrics and their math | [BRM] ch. 3; [RLHF] Part 3 |
| 3.7 The statistics of evals | [CAI] |
Part IV — Causal Inference for Evaluation
Part-wide spine: [CAI] Parts 1–3.
| Chapter | Read-along |
|---|---|
| 4.1 The ladder of causation | [CAI] ch. 1–2 |
| 4.2 DAGs and d-separation | [CAI] Part 2 |
| 4.3 Confounding, colliders, and selection | [CAI] Parts 2–3 |
| 4.4 Identification: backdoor and front-door | [CAI] Part 3 |
| 4.5 Interventions on models | [CAI] Part 3 |
Part V — Reinforcement Learning Foundations
| Chapter | Read-along |
|---|---|
| 5.1 The RL problem | [S&B] ch. 3 |
| 5.2 Value functions and Bellman equations | [S&B] ch. 3–4 |
| 5.3 Bandits, exploration, and sampling | [S&B] ch. 2; [GAIA] ch. 10 |
| 5.4 The policy gradient theorem | [S&B] ch. 13 |
| 5.5 REINFORCE and variance reduction | [S&B] ch. 13; [BRM] ch. 6 sidebars |
| 5.6 Actor-critic and GAE | [RLHF] ch. 6 |
| 5.7 Trust regions: from TRPO to PPO | [RLHF] ch. 6; [BRM] ch. 6 |
| 5.8 GRPO | [BRM] ch. 6–7; [RLHF] ch. 6 |
| 5.9 RLVR: reinforcement with verifiable rewards | [RLHF] ch. 7; [BRM] ch. 6 |
Part VI — Post-Training, the LLM Way
| Chapter | Read-along |
|---|---|
| 6.1 The post-training landscape | [RLHF] ch. 1–3 |
| 6.2 SFT and instruction tuning | [RLHF] ch. 4; [BLLM] ch. 7 |
| 6.3 LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically | [RLHF] ch. 4; Part II ch. 3 |
| 6.4 Reward models and preference data | [RLHF] ch. 5 |
| 6.5 Direct alignment: DPO and family | [RLHF] ch. 8 |
| 6.6 Reasoning models and inference-time scaling | [BRM] ch. 4–5; [RLHF] ch. 7 |
| 6.7 Distillation | [BRM] ch. 8 |
Part VII — The Loop
| Chapter | Read-along |
|---|---|
| 7.1 Unsloth internals | [MADL] ch. 3–4 |
| 7.2 GRPO on 16GB | [RLHF]; [S&B] ch. 13 |
| 7.3 Scorers as rewards | [RLHF] |
| 7.4 Reward hacking and Goodhart | [RLHF] |
Part VIII — Burst and Scale
| Chapter | Read-along |
|---|---|
| 8.3 When to burst | [RLHF] ch. 6 (infra notes) |
When a chapter's read-along pointer and this table disagree, the chapter is
the source of truth: update this appendix, not the chapter. This index accretes
as chapters are drafted, so pairings for chapters still in stub form may be
refined when their read-along blocks are written.
Appendix F: Notation reference
The symbols the book's derivations use, grouped by domain and pinned to one meaning each. Where a symbol is genuinely overloaded across domains (the classic offender is , which the book uses for the bootstrap-resample count, the LoRA up-projection matrix, and an NF4 quantization block), the collision is flagged so a reader jumping between chapters is never guessing. Each table gives the symbol, its meaning as the book uses it, and the chapter where it is first introduced.
The book leans on a few standing conventions: vectors and matrices are as written in each chapter (no global bold/roman rule is imposed, because the source chapters set their own); is natural log throughout; expectations are over whatever the subscript names; and "byte" quantities use binary prefixes for capacity (GiB) and decimal for rate (GB/s), as in The hardware baseline and Appendix A.
Reinforcement learning
| Symbol | Meaning | First introduced |
|---|---|---|
| , | state (here, the prompt / partial generation at step ) | The RL problem |
| , | action (here, the next token or a full completion) | The RL problem |
| policy: the model's probability of action in state , parameters | The RL problem | |
| policy (model) parameters | The policy gradient theorem | |
| frozen reference policy for the KL penalty | GRPO | |
| , | reward; in RLVR, the verifiable checker's score | The RL problem / RLVR |
| , | return: (discounted) sum of future rewards from step | Value functions and Bellman equations |
| discount factor, | Value functions and Bellman equations | |
| , | state-value: expected return from state under | Value functions and Bellman equations |
| , | action-value: expected return taking in , then | Value functions and Bellman equations |
| advantage, | Actor-critic and GAE | |
| estimated advantage (GAE, or group-relative in GRPO) | Actor-critic and GAE | |
| GAE bias-variance interpolation parameter | Actor-critic and GAE | |
| temporal-difference residual, | Actor-critic and GAE | |
| probability ratio in PPO-clip | Trust regions: from TRPO to PPO | |
| PPO clip half-width, ratio clipped to | Trust regions: from TRPO to PPO | |
| KL-penalty coefficient in the RL objective | GRPO | |
| KL divergence from policy to reference | GRPO | |
| GRPO group size: completions sampled per prompt | GRPO | |
| GRPO group index, | GRPO | |
| the -th completion (output) in a group | GRPO | |
| the RL objective (expected return) being maximized | The policy gradient theorem |
is the PPO clip width here, but also names machine epsilon in Tensors, autograd, and number formats and appears as a small constant in RMSNorm. Context disambiguates: an RL objective versus a floating-point rounding bound. Likewise is the KL coefficient in RL but bytes-per-parameter in the quantization/VRAM tables (Appendix A); the RL chapters never mix the two.
Probability and statistics
| Symbol | Meaning | First introduced |
|---|---|---|
| , | expectation, over the distribution named in the subscript | The policy gradient theorem |
| variance | REINFORCE and variance reduction | |
| covariance | REINFORCE and variance reduction | |
| model's probability of | The language-modeling objective | |
| , | an estimator of a mean / parameter (hat = estimated from data) | The statistics of evals |
| eval sample size (number of problems / items) | The statistics of evals | |
| in pass@k, the number of sampled completions per problem | Metrics and their math | |
| number of bootstrap resamples | The statistics of evals | |
| 95% confidence interval (percentile bootstrap by default) | The statistics of evals | |
| significance level (e.g. 0.05) | The statistics of evals | |
| effect size (standardized mean difference, Cohen's ) | The statistics of evals | |
| , | standard deviation and its estimate | The statistics of evals |
| entropy of distribution | The language-modeling objective | |
| cross-entropy of relative to | The language-modeling objective |
is doubly booked and worth watching: it is the statistical effect size here, the head dimension / model dimension in the transformer tables below, and appears as a plain dimension in the roofline matmul argument. The subscript or the sentence resolves it; when a chapter needs both at once it writes for the head dimension explicitly.
Transformer / LLM dimensions
| Symbol | Meaning | First introduced |
|---|---|---|
| model (hidden) width | The transformer block | |
number of transformer layers (num_hidden_layers) | Where memory goes / KV cache arithmetic | |
| , | number of attention (query) heads | Attention from first principles |
number of key/value heads (GQA; num_key_value_heads) | KV cache arithmetic | |
head dimension (head_dim, or ) | Attention from first principles | |
| vocabulary size (context: transformer, not RL value) | Tokenization and embeddings | |
| , | sequence / context length in tokens | Prefill, decode, and the roofline / KV cache arithmetic |
| token position index | The language-modeling objective | |
| the token (or activation) at position | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| , | logits (pre-softmax scores over the vocabulary) | The language-modeling objective |
| query, key, value matrices in attention | Attention from first principles | |
| Jacobian of layer (autograd) | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| adjoint of activation , | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| total parameter count of a model | Appendix A |
is overloaded three ways across the book: the RL state-value function , the attention value matrix , and the vocabulary size . These live in different parts (RL, attention, tokenization) and never appear in the same equation, but it is the collision most likely to trip a reader skimming across parts. is layers in the transformer tables and the scalar loss in the autograd derivation; again, disjoint contexts.
Inference, bandwidth, and the roofline
| Symbol | Meaning | First introduced |
|---|---|---|
| KV-cache bytes per token, | KV cache arithmetic | |
| bytes read from memory per generated token (decode) | Prefill, decode, and the roofline | |
| bytes per cached element (2 BF16, 1 FP8) | KV cache arithmetic | |
| VRAM pool available for the KV cache | KV cache arithmetic | |
| number of concurrent sequences | KV cache arithmetic | |
| , | weight footprint in bytes | Appendix A |
| arithmetic intensity, FLOPs per byte moved | Prefill, decode, and the roofline | |
| ridge-point intensity, | Prefill, decode, and the roofline | |
| memory bandwidth (~960 GB/s on the baseline card) | Prefill, decode, and the roofline | |
| peak compute throughput (FLOP/s) | Prefill, decode, and the roofline | |
| Prefill, decode, and the roofline | ||
| decode throughput ceiling, | Prefill, decode, and the roofline |
(lowercase) is bytes-per-cached-element in the KV formula; the quantization table below deliberately writes bit-width as , not , to keep the two apart. (uppercase) is triply booked, the bootstrap-resample count in the statistics table, the LoRA up-projection matrix, and an NF4 quantization block (Parameter-efficient fine-tuning). The KV chapter writes for element bytes and always states "2 for BF16, 1 for FP8" inline so the meaning travels with the symbol.
Number formats and quantization
| Symbol | Meaning | First introduced |
|---|---|---|
| sign bit (floating point); also the quantization scale (context) | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| stored (biased) exponent field | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| exponent bias (127 FP32/BF16, 15 FP16, ...) | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| mantissa bit-count | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| fractional part of the significand, | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| unit roundoff, | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| machine epsilon, | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| spacing between representable values (1 ulp), | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| stored integer code in integer quantization | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| quantization scale, real | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| zero-point (integer offset in asymmetric quantization) | Tensors, autograd, and number formats | |
| group/block size for group-wise scales (e.g. 128 AWQ, 32 MXFP4, 64 NF4); chapter 6.3 writes the NF4 block size as | Quantization: theory and formats | |
| bit-width of the quantized element (4, 8, 16) | Quantization: theory and formats | |
| effective bytes per parameter for a dtype (VRAM tables) | Appendix A |
This table is the reference the Quantization: theory and formats derivations and the Appendix A budgets both point back to. When those chapters write for a quantization scale, it is the same shown here, not the floating-point sign bit; the surrounding equation always makes clear which. The effective-bytes symbol is what turns a bit-width into the byte-per-parameter figures the VRAM tables multiply by .
Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (LoRA / QLoRA)
The LoRA/QLoRA symbols from LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically and GRPO on 16GB. This group collides hard with the RL and statistics tables above, by inheritance from the source chapters rather than by accident; every clash is flagged below.
| Symbol | Meaning | First introduced |
|---|---|---|
| LoRA rank: inner dimension of the low-rank update (collides with reward ) | LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically | |
| LoRA scaling in the update strength (collides with significance level ) | LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically | |
| LoRA down-projection, (Gaussian-initialized) | LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically | |
| LoRA up-projection, (zero-initialized) (collides with bootstrap count ) | LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically | |
| the low-rank weight update, | LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically | |
| (block) | NF4 quantization block size in elements (QLoRA uses 64); the quantization table above calls this | LoRA and QLoRA, mathematically |
This group is a collision minefield with the RL and statistics tables, and every clash is deliberate so the symbols match the source chapters. is the LoRA rank here but the reward in the RL table; is the LoRA scaling factor here but the significance level in the statistics table; and is triply booked, the LoRA up-projection matrix, the bootstrap-resample count (statistics table), and the NF4 block size the quantization table writes as . Chapter 6.3 sets these symbols, so the appendix follows it rather than renaming; the surrounding equation is always what disambiguates.